With so many sets dropping at once, it takes some time for EDHREC to have the sets input and to have enough decks to scrape from the various sites it scrapes. I’m going to do some brute force work to try and figure out which Core Set or Jumpstart Commander is most popular this week and then analyze the cards that likely go in the deck. I’ll be using just Archidekt because we are going for qualitative not quantitative results here. I’m tallying up the number of “hits” when I query each commander’s name because I want to know which commander has the most hits on Archidekt, not the number exactly. I don’t think there’s any indication Archidekt is not a representative sample – I think the most popular commander will be the most popular on any site I check, provided there is a clear winner. If there are 50 Inniaz decks and 49 Emiel decks on Archidekt, I’m not going to scrap my hypothesis if there are 49 Inniaz decks and 50 Emiel decks on Moxfield. If there are 50 Inniaz decks and 11 Emiel decks, I don’t expect there to be more Emiel decks anywhere else, savez?
I’m just going to lump both sets together and do a total number of hits from Archidekt for each one to see which one I drill into today. This will be guesswork but I don’t think we won’t be able to come up with good picks and it beats waiting for next week when we’ll have more data. Let’s do SOMETHING, shall we? Also, I’m going to Mythic spoiler, starting at the top and working my way down. These are in no kind of order. Again, this is unscientific because literally none of this matters except which commander gets the most hits. Some “decks” are 9 cards that someone intends to put in the deck later so he doesn’t forget it’s hilarious to give someone a copy of Nine Lives with Inniaz (I’m already laughing because I’m going to do this as often as I can and meow loudly at the person to my left as I murder them). Is an incomplete deck something I should disregard? No, because to me, it reflects the intention to make the deck later and I think people will make these deck fragments for every commander so it’s likely a wash. A signal is a signal so I’m counting it. If my methodology is so bad that I accidentally spend some time this week looking at the second most popular commander, oh no. Xyris was the most popular commander for 2 weeks and now it’s barely in the top 20 because it’s boring. We still made money on wheels, didn’t we?
There is a problem immediately – Archidekt does a poor job of differentiating between the 2 Mangaras and I can only search for decks with Mangara in the title. I don’t care, there’s no way both Mangaras combined are as popular as an actual good commander, so I push on. All of the Core Set 2021 Legends already have another card with the same name. Cool. Cool cool cool cool.
Mangara – 30?
Kaervek – 15?
Barrin – 27 (total)
Jorael – 20?
Gadrak – 18. I am sure of this number
Subira – 26
Vito – 31
Rin and Seri – 54
Niambi – 26
Radha – 40?
Inniaz – 35
Zurzoth – 21
Tinybones – 110
Muxus – 8
Yes, I’m still doing this after seeing Tinybones has over 100 decks
Kels – 28
Sethron – 10
Neyith – 31
Emiel – 12
Ormos – 7
With Tinybones the clear winner, as I half expected, let’s drill down and see what this widdle skewwyboi will play.
Tinybones does not steal trinkets, scale up if you make them discard multiple cards or help make their life total 10. However, he comes down early, draws cards, rewards you for getting creative with making them discard and he can kill people at low life totals. We can work with this.
Sorin makes their life total 10. It only works on one person, but if you can throw this out and you’re playing Tinybones, people will immediately know what’s coming. I don’t see this paired with Boney as much as I should but when we get more data, I expect to. This is a card that flirted with $25 that is gettable for $5 out of Mystery Boosters. I think that $5 may be a bit higher than I like to pay, but this card has demonstrated the ability to shrug off reprints before and the last time it flirted with $25 was less than 12 months ago. The Mythic Edition version probably has the most upside but I don’t love a $25 buy-in, personally. If you’re less risk-averse than me, that is an option for you.
This is a repeatable way to make every player discard every turn. That means you will trigger Boney Maroni once for every player in a turn cycle and draw a card for each one. Who cares if it makes you Discard? You’re playing Mono-Black, I think pitching a Sheoldred to reanimate later is a small price to pay for triggering your commander every player’s turn. T his could hit $10 on Card Kingdom if it sells out.
These are under 3 Euro on MKM. Do you not have a way to get cards from MKM? I don’t make any money when someone signs up for Pro Trader nor do I think I should, but I think if reading my article 48 hours early isn’t enough incentive, I think finding a hookup in our Discord channel to help you buy a $12 card for 3 Euro should make you enough money for your membership costs for the next year or so. You are smart, you could figure out a way to get these cards on your own, but why not just use our connections?
This graph is a mess because it’s currently spiking. You can pay like $3 on TCG Player or you can find these in bulk at your LGS -provided you can go to your LGS and paw through bulk. If this can go from $0.80 to $4 and maybe higher, I like Necrogen Mists even more. Dig through your own bulk.
There is no indicator of organic demand more clear and unequivocal than an EDH card selling out on Card Kingdom for $3.50 before it sells out on Coolstuff for $2.50. If you don’t understand what I mean by that, I’m happy to explain in the comments or a DM, but I think this graph really speaks for itself and it’s speaking volumes.
I use Card Kingdom’s prices on my graph to make a point – there are lots and lots and lots of Magic players who are better at building decks than they are at buying singles. Card Kingdom is the go-to place to buy singles for EDH players. Card Kingdom’s prices are linked underneath the card on EDHREC and even though they’re almost always higher than TCG Player’s prices right next to them, people still buy from Card Kingdom. Their generous buylist makes it worth buylisting to them to pick up specs at retail because the trade-in bonus negates some of the squeeze you feel from their prices being higher than other sites. If a card flirted with $8 on Card Kingdom and it’s getting a lot better now, pay attention to those $4 copies on TCG Player because those won’t last and people are OK with this being an $8 card, especially if they need it.
I don’t know why this spiked to $9 briefly but I do know that a card that flirted with $9 once and raised the buylist price to $4 (it stayed at $3) is a buy at $6. This is on the move – lots of Tinybones cards are and this, despite 2 printings, is a very brutal card in a Tinybones deck. Even if Player A doesn’t discard anything during their turn, Player B playing an instant and having to discard means you still trigger David Boreanaz over here.
When EDHREC has data, I’m sure it will bear out what I’m saying here. I manually searched lots of the 110 decks on Archidekt and everyone is building basically the same deck with the same cards. Consensus is cash money in this bidness so pay attention to what people are trying to tell you and snap the cheap stuff before it’s not cheap anymore. This deck is very obvious and there isn’t much room to add personal touches but I also don’t think it will be boring and fall out of favor. Xyris was obvious but also boring and Kalamax eventually moved in to eat its lunch. This strikes me as closer to Teysa Karlov except this wasn’t never overshadowed by an even more obvious, boring deck like Vannifar.
That does it for me this week. I feel better about these specs than I have about anything else I have written about this year, even stuff I found out later I was right about (which was a lot of them, this method uses actual data, I barely have to do anything that approaches guessing) and if you can snap some of the Megrim type cards out of bulk, you’ll make free money which is even better than speculating. Until next time!