Update 4/29/2022: I’ve edited this to include the drops of New Capenna Commander cards in the last slot of Collector Boosters. Everything should be in multiples of 82 now.
Every set, Wizards is obligated to release a certain amount of information about the drop rate in the different booster products. They don’t want to be specific about things, though, so every new set, I have to look at the changes they’ve announced and figure out the odds of getting the cards we want in a Collector Booster.
It hasn’t been the same formula twice, and we keep getting variations. This time, the big news is the confirmation of a two-step process when determining how rare specific versions are. All versions of a card are combined to be as numerous as the total copies of another card at the same rarity.
So the total number of Extended Art Foil Luxior, Giada’s Gift (a mythic) is equal to the combined total number of Art Deco Foil, Phyrexian Foil, and Art Deco Etched Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor. As a result, each of those versions is three times rarer than the FEA Topiary Stomper.
The shorthand version is that first you roll your odds of getting any version of a card, and then you have to figure how many versions are possible for that card. I’ve done it all for you!
The slightly longer version, ignoring individual variations: If you want any card in any foil, looking at the last slot of a Collector Booster, you’ve got a 1/82 chance of getting it in a CB if it’s rare and 1/164 if it’s a mythic. Traditionally speaking, there’s twice as many of a given rare as there is for a mythic, so with 60 rares and 20 mythics from the main set, plus six rares and twelve mythics from New Capenna Commander, the pool is 2/164 or 1/82 for a rare and 1/164 for a mythic.
The annoying hurdle to this set is that you have to figure out how many options there are for a special frame. For some cards, there is only an EA version for you to pull. For others, you might have a chance at Borderless Foil, Art Deco Foil, or Etched Foil Art Deco.
I’m a completionist by nature, a trait which helps and hinders me, so I’m going to lay out your options by number of variants, then card name, then rarity.
First of all, the cards that are available at rare with one variant frame, so you have a 1/82 chance to get these exact cards/versions when you open a Collector Booster:
| Extended Art Foil (35) Frequency: 1/82 | Main Set: Aven Heartstabber Black Market Tycoon Cemetery Tampering Corpse Explosion Cut of the Profits Cut Your Losses Depopulate Devilish Valet Evolving Door Extraction Specialist Fight Rigging Getaway Car Hoard Hauler Jaxis, the Troublemaker Ledger Shredder Mysterious Limousine Park Heights Pegasus Professional Face-Breaker Rabble Rousing Reservoir Kraken Sanguine Spy Shakedown Heavy Structural Assault Undercover Operative Unlicensed Hearse Widespread Thieving Wiretapping Workshop Warchief New Capenna Commander: Boxing Ring Mari, the Killing Quill Spiteful Repossession Swindler’s Scheme Tenuous Truce Vazi, Keen Negotiator |
| Borderless Foil (2) Frequency: 1/82 | Shadow of Mortality Topiary Stomper |
For reference, Jaxis, the Troublemaker also has a Buy-a-Box and Mysterious Limousine also has a Promo version from the Bundle, but those versions won’t pop up in the Collector Boosters.
Now, the list of mythics that have only one variation.
| Extended Art Foil (18) Frequency: 1/164 | Main Set: Angel of Suffering Arcane Bombardment Body Launderer Even the Score Luxior, Giada’s Gift Meeting of the Five New Capenna Commander: Bennie Bracks, Zoologist Threefold Signal Anhelo, the Painter Henzie “Toolbox” Torre Kamiz, Obscura Oculus Kitt Kanto, Mayhem Diva Kros, Defense Contractor Parnesse, the Subtle Brush Perrie, the Pulverizer Phabine, Boss’s Confidante The Beamtown Bullies Tivit, Seller of Secrets |
| Borderless Foil (4) Frequency: 1/164 | All-Seeing Arbiter Bootleggers’ Stash Halo Fountain Titan of Industry |
Just to be clear, there’s a Game Day Promo version of All-Seeing Arbiter, but we won’t see that in the Collector Boosters.
Now things get trickier. I’ve tried to break these rares into their combinations. I think I’ve got it right, but if you catch errors, please hop into our discord and let me know.
The frequency here is referring to any particular version. You still have a 1/82 chance to get any version of Brokers Ascendancy, but a 1/164 chance to get the Gilded Age foil.
| Gilded Age Foil and Gilded Age Gilded Foil (20) Frequency: 1/164 | Brokers Ascendancy Cabaretti Ascendancy Endless Detour Evelyn, the Covetous Fleetfoot Dancer Hostile Takeover Incandescent Aria Jinnie Fay, Jetmir’s Second Maestros Ascendancy Maestros Diabolist Obscura Ascendancy Obscura Interceptor Ognis, the Dragon’s Lash Rigo, Streetwise Mentor Riveteers Ascendancy Soul of Emancipation Toluz, Clever Conductor Unleash the Inferno Void Rend Ziatora’s Envoy |
| Art Deco Foil and Etched Foil Art Deco (4) Frequency: 1/164 | Errant, Street Artist Giada, Font of Hope Scheming Fence Tenacious Underdog |
| Skyscraper Foil and Borderless Foil (5) Frequency: 1/164 | Jetmir’s Garden Raffine’s Tower Spara’s Headquarters Xander’s Lounge Ziatora’s Proving Ground |
Next, the list of mythics with two special frames.
| Art Deco Foil and Art Deco Etched Foil (1) Frequency: 1/328 | Sanctuary Warden |
| Golden Age Foil and Golden Age Gilded Foil (5) Frequency: 1/328 | Falco Spara, Pactweaver Jetmir, Nexus of Revels Lord Xander, the Collector Raffine, Scheming Seer Ziatora, the Incinerator |
Finally, the mythics that have three special frames. There’s no rares with this many, they max out at two.
| Borderless Foil, Art Deco Foil, Art Deco Etched Foil (3) Frequency: 1/492 | Elspeth Resplendent Ob Nixilis, the Adversary Vivien on the Hunt |
| Art Deco Foil, Art Deco Etched Foil, Phyrexian Foil (1) Frequency: 1/492 | Urabrask, Heretic Praetor |
We can compare this set’s rarest cards to the rarest cards of previous sets, because I get to do this every couple months:
| set | Odds of a specific foil rare | Odds of a specific foil mythic |
| Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty | 1/136 | 1/272 up to 1/544 |
| Innistrad: Crimson Vow | 1/74 | 1/171 |
| Innistrad: Midnight Hunt | 1/75.5 | 1/151 |
| Forgotten Realms | 1/63 | 1/126 |
| Strixhaven | 1/154.5 | 1/309 |
| Kaldheim | 1/64 | 1/128 |
| Modern Horizons 2 | 1/126.5 | 1/253 |
| Commander Legends EA Foils | 1/204 | 1/400 |
| Streets of New Capenna | 1/82 to 1/164 | 1/164 to 1/492 |
That’s the general gist, but let’s talk about some card-to-card comparisons.
| Card/Treatment | Set | Odds of pulling it from a Collector Booster (approx.) |
| Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex | Kaldheim | 1/256 |
| Japanese-Language Alternate Art Time Warp Foil | Strixhaven (Mystical Archive) | 1/309 |
| Foil Extended Art The Meathook Massacre | Innistrad: Midnight Hunt | 1/151 |
| Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami Kojima | Innistrad: Crimson Vow | 1/171 |
| Extended Art Foil Jeweled Lotus | Commander Legends | 1/400 |
| Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-Gitaxias | Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty | 1/544 |
| Blue Soft Glow Hidetsugu | Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty | 1/219 |
| Green Soft Glow Hidetsugu | Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty | 1/444 |
| Red Soft Glow Hidetsugu | Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty | 1/1828 |
| Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor | Streets of New Capenna | 1/492 |
Your eyes do not deceive you: The rarest mythics in SNC are more than twice as rare as a blue Hidetsugu, and slightly rarer than the green version. Additionally, they are slightly more rare than the FEA Jeweled Lotus, and the rarest cards from modern sets have that 1/400 target in mind for chase versions.
I hope that this breakdown of the math helps inform your buying, and if you have questions or caught errors, please let me know on Twitter or in the ProTrader Discord! I’m happy to discuss methods and results there.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.