The Math of Streets of New Capenna – Collector Boosters

Update 4/29/2022: I’ve edited this to include the drops of New Capenna Commander cards in the last slot of Collector Boosters. Everything should be in multiples of 82 now.

Every set, Wizards is obligated to release a certain amount of information about the drop rate in the different booster products. They don’t want to be specific about things, though, so every new set, I have to look at the changes they’ve announced and figure out the odds of getting the cards we want in a Collector Booster.

It hasn’t been the same formula twice, and we keep getting variations. This time, the big news is the confirmation of a two-step process when determining how rare specific versions are. All versions of a card are combined to be as numerous as the total copies of another card at the same rarity.

So the total number of Extended Art Foil Luxior, Giada’s Gift (a mythic) is equal to the combined total number of Art Deco Foil, Phyrexian Foil, and Art Deco Etched Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor. As a result, each of those versions is three times rarer than the FEA Topiary Stomper.

The shorthand version is that first you roll your odds of getting any version of a card, and then you have to figure how many versions are possible for that card. I’ve done it all for you!

Collector Booster graphic

The slightly longer version, ignoring individual variations: If you want any card in any foil, looking at the last slot of a Collector Booster, you’ve got a 1/82 chance of getting it in a CB if it’s rare and 1/164 if it’s a mythic. Traditionally speaking, there’s twice as many of a given rare as there is for a mythic, so with 60 rares and 20 mythics from the main set, plus six rares and twelve mythics from New Capenna Commander, the pool is 2/164 or 1/82 for a rare and 1/164 for a mythic.

The annoying hurdle to this set is that you have to figure out how many options there are for a special frame. For some cards, there is only an EA version for you to pull. For others, you might have a chance at Borderless Foil, Art Deco Foil, or Etched Foil Art Deco. 

I’m a completionist by nature, a trait which helps and hinders me, so I’m going to lay out your options by number of variants, then card name, then rarity.

First of all, the cards that are available at rare with one variant frame, so you have a 1/82 chance to get these exact cards/versions when you open a Collector Booster:

Extended Art Foil (35)
Frequency: 1/82
Main Set:
Aven Heartstabber
Black Market Tycoon
Cemetery Tampering
Corpse Explosion
Cut of the Profits
Cut Your Losses
Devilish Valet
Evolving Door
Extraction Specialist
Fight Rigging
Getaway Car
Hoard Hauler
Jaxis, the Troublemaker
Ledger Shredder
Mysterious Limousine
Park Heights Pegasus
Professional Face-Breaker
Rabble Rousing
Reservoir Kraken
Sanguine Spy
Shakedown Heavy
Structural Assault
Undercover Operative
Unlicensed Hearse
Widespread Thieving
Workshop Warchief

New Capenna Commander:
Boxing Ring
Mari, the Killing Quill
Spiteful Repossession
Swindler’s Scheme
Tenuous Truce
Vazi, Keen Negotiator
Borderless Foil (2)
Frequency: 1/82
Shadow of Mortality
Topiary Stomper

For reference, Jaxis, the Troublemaker also has a Buy-a-Box and Mysterious Limousine also has a Promo version from the Bundle, but those versions won’t pop up in the Collector Boosters.

Now, the list of mythics that have only one variation.

Extended Art Foil (18)
Frequency: 1/164
Main Set:
Angel of Suffering
Arcane Bombardment
Body Launderer
Even the Score
Luxior, Giada’s Gift
Meeting of the Five

New Capenna Commander:
Bennie Bracks, Zoologist
Threefold Signal
Anhelo, the Painter
Henzie “Toolbox” Torre
Kamiz, Obscura Oculus
Kitt Kanto, Mayhem Diva
Kros, Defense Contractor
Parnesse, the Subtle Brush
Perrie, the Pulverizer
Phabine, Boss’s Confidante
The Beamtown Bullies
Tivit, Seller of Secrets
Borderless Foil (4)
Frequency: 1/164
All-Seeing Arbiter
Bootleggers’ Stash
Halo Fountain
Titan of Industry

Just to be clear, there’s a Game Day Promo version of All-Seeing Arbiter, but we won’t see that in the Collector Boosters.

Now things get trickier. I’ve tried to break these rares into their combinations. I think I’ve got it right, but if you catch errors, please hop into our discord and let me know.

The frequency here is referring to any particular version. You still have a 1/82 chance to get any version of Brokers Ascendancy, but a 1/164 chance to get the Gilded Age foil.

Gilded Age Foil and Gilded Age Gilded Foil (20)
Frequency: 1/164
Brokers Ascendancy
Cabaretti Ascendancy
Endless Detour
Evelyn, the Covetous
Fleetfoot Dancer
Hostile Takeover
Incandescent Aria
Jinnie Fay, Jetmir’s Second
Maestros Ascendancy
Maestros Diabolist
Obscura Ascendancy
Obscura Interceptor
Ognis, the Dragon’s Lash
Rigo, Streetwise Mentor
Riveteers Ascendancy
Soul of Emancipation
Toluz, Clever Conductor
Unleash the Inferno
Void Rend
Ziatora’s Envoy
Art Deco Foil and Etched Foil Art Deco (4)
Frequency: 1/164
Errant, Street Artist
Giada, Font of Hope
Scheming Fence
Tenacious Underdog
Skyscraper Foil and Borderless Foil (5)
Frequency: 1/164
Jetmir’s Garden
Raffine’s Tower
Spara’s Headquarters
Xander’s Lounge
Ziatora’s Proving Ground

Next, the list of mythics with two special frames.

Art Deco Foil and Art Deco Etched Foil (1)
Frequency: 1/328
Sanctuary Warden
Golden Age Foil and Golden Age Gilded Foil (5) 
Frequency: 1/328
Falco Spara, Pactweaver
Jetmir, Nexus of Revels
Lord Xander, the Collector
Raffine, Scheming Seer
Ziatora, the Incinerator

Finally, the mythics that have three special frames. There’s no rares with this many, they max out at two.

Borderless Foil, Art Deco Foil, Art Deco Etched Foil (3)
Frequency: 1/492
Elspeth Resplendent
Ob Nixilis, the Adversary
Vivien on the Hunt
Art Deco Foil, Art Deco Etched Foil, Phyrexian Foil (1)
Frequency: 1/492
Urabrask, Heretic Praetor

We can compare this set’s rarest cards to the rarest cards of previous sets, because I get to do this every couple months: 

setOdds of a specific foil rareOdds of a specific foil mythic
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/1361/272 up to 1/544
Innistrad: Crimson Vow1/741/171
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt1/75.51/151
Forgotten Realms1/631/126
Modern Horizons 21/126.51/253
Commander Legends EA Foils1/2041/400
Streets of New Capenna1/82 to 1/1641/164 to 1/492

That’s the general gist, but let’s talk about some card-to-card comparisons.

Card/TreatmentSetOdds of pulling it from a Collector Booster (approx.)
Phyrexian Foil VorinclexKaldheim1/256
Japanese-Language Alternate Art Time Warp FoilStrixhaven (Mystical Archive)1/309
Foil Extended Art The Meathook MassacreInnistrad: Midnight Hunt1/151
Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami KojimaInnistrad: Crimson Vow1/171
Extended Art Foil Jeweled LotusCommander Legends1/400
Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-GitaxiasKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/544
Blue Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/219
Green Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/444
Red Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/1828
Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic PraetorStreets of New Capenna1/492

Your eyes do not deceive you: The rarest mythics in SNC are more than twice as rare as a blue Hidetsugu, and slightly rarer than the green version. Additionally, they are slightly more rare than the FEA Jeweled Lotus, and the rarest cards from modern sets have that 1/400 target in mind for chase versions.

I hope that this breakdown of the math helps inform your buying, and if you have questions or caught errors, please let me know on Twitter or in the ProTrader Discord! I’m happy to discuss methods and results there.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.