Here we are, the dawn of a new set. Preorders are all over the place, spikes are happening left and right, and we’re one month away from Double Masters 2.
For right now, though, I want to focus on the Collector Boosters from Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate. Every set since the first Commander Legends I’ve calculated your odds, and I’m glad to bring you this set of data.
Please note that today’s piece is focusing on the Collector Boosters only. Set and Draft Boosters will have to wait, as those require a whole new set of tables and calculations.
Let’s get to it!
First of all, let’s go over what we’re told explicitly. This set has subdivided many of the types and treatments, which helps simplify what can be found where.
One thing I hate about this graphic is that it isn’t in order, according to the box opening videos I’ve watched. Just irks me.
It’s a bit painful to say, but in terms of rarity, there’s only two slots we’re going to focus on here. The nonfoil, regular frame cards rarely carry a huge price difference from nonfoil showcase or foil regular frame.
For instance, the slot for Extended-Art Commander rare/mythic. There’s 40 exclusive cards, 12 of them mythic. You’ll have a 1/67 of getting a particular EA mythic or 1/33.5 for a particular EA rare. (Artificer Class does not have an EA version.) Given the volume that’s going to be opened, that’ll be a LOT of cards. The prices on other EA rares/mythics from previous sets backs that up.
The Etched Foil (Legendary Rare/Mythic) slot in Collector Boosters is pretty straightforward. There’s 30 rares and just a pair of mythics. That means only 1/62 CBs will have a particular mythic etched foil, and you’re 1/31 to get whichever etched foil rare you wanted. This pool includes the five rare Backgrounds, which will not show up in the next slot. The other 27 cards are all the rare and mythic Legendary creatures.
Now, the last slot in the Collector Booster, traditionally where the biggest money and the rarest cards are found.
Let’s set up with the basics: When you get to the this slot in a Collector Booster, you’re going to get a Showcase (In this set, that’s the Monster Manual), Borderless, or Extended-Art treatment in foil. We’ve got 72 eligible rares and 22 eligible mythics. Since mythics are half as common as rares, we need to double the number of rares, but keep the same mythics.
As a result, we get a pool of 176 cards. Two of each rare, one of each mythic. That means we have a 1/88 chance (reduced from 2/176) for any version of a particular rare, and a 1/176 chance of pulling any version of a particular mythic rare.
The short version is that you look up a card, see how many options you have. All rares and mythics in this set have one alternate frame, with the exception of the five Ancient Dragons. Those have a Borderless treatment and a Showcase treatment, and therefore will be the rarest cards in the set.
|Rare with 1 alternate||Mythic with 1 alternate||Mythic with 2 alternates|
|Rares with only |
Extended Art (47)
Chances: 1/88 Collector
|Altar of Bhaal // Bone Offering|
Archivist of Oghma
Ascend from Avernus
Blade of Selves
Call to the Void
Caves of Chaos Adventurer
Descent into Avernus
Horn of Valhalla // Ysgard’s Call
Illithid Harvester // Plant Tadpoles
Mighty Servant of Leuk-o
Mirror of Life Trapping
Monster Manual // Zoological Study
Robe of the Archmagi
Sea of Clouds
Tomb of Horrors Adventurer
Traverse the Outlands
Wand of Wonder
White Plume Adventurer
Wizards of Thay
Wrathful Red Dragon
|Rares with only Monster|
Chances: 1/88 Collector
|Alaundo the Seer|
Astarion, the Decadent
Baba Lysaga, Night Witch
Bane, Lord of Darkness
Bhaal, Lord of Murder
Duke Ulder Ravengard
Dynaheir, Invoker Adept
Gale, Waterdeep Prodigy
Gluntch, the Bestower
Gorion, Wise Mentor
Jaheira, Friend of the Forest
Jan Jansen, Chaos Crafter
Jon Irenicus, Shattered One
Lae’zel, Vlaakith’s Champion
Mazzy, Truesword Paladin
Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm
Myrkul, Lord of Bones
Neera, Wild Mage
Raggadragga, Goreguts Boss
Raphael, Fiendish Savior
Shadowheart, Dark Justiciar
The Council of Four
Wyll, Blade of Frontiers
Zevlor, Elturel Exile
Yes, you’re reading that correctly. Given these odds, a full 80 percent or so of rares will be in Collector Boosters’ last slot. Please note, though, that the Legendary Rare Backgrounds are not in this list. Those are in regular foil and etched foil, and therefore are not included for this slot.
|Mythics with only Extended Art (19) |
(Includes the Commander exclusives)
Chances: 1/176 Collector Booster Packs
|Baeloth Barrityl, Entertainer|
Burakos, Party Leader
Durnan of the Yawning Portal
Faldorn, Dread Wolf Herald
Firkraag, Cunning Instigator
Font of Magic
Storm King’s Thunder
Zellix, Sanity Flayer
|Mythics with Monster Manual Frame/Art (Showcase) (2) |
Chances: 1/176 Collector Booster Packs
|Karlach, Fury of Avernus|
Volo, Itinerant Scholar
|Mythics with Borderless |
Alternate Art (8)
Chances: 1/176 Collector
|Battle Angels of Tyr|
Minsc & Boo, Timeless Heroes
Tasha, the Witch Queen
|Mythics with Borderless Alternate|
Art OR Monster Manual Frame/Art (Showcase) (5)
Chances: 1/352 Collector Booster
Packs (per version)
|Ancient Brass Dragon|
Ancient Bronze Dragon
Ancient Copper Dragon
Ancient Gold Dragon
Ancient Silver Dragon
Point of clarification here: This set has less overlap in versions than the last few did. No mythics have three special versions, and no rare has two. An interesting choice from WotC here, but it makes my life simpler.
Generally speaking, things are as rare in this set as they were in previous sets. Let’s have a couple of comparisons, handily from my own research.
|Set Name||Odds of a specific foil treatment rare||Odds of a specific foil treatment mythic|
|CL: Battle for Baldur’s Gate||1/88||1/176 to 1/352|
|Streets of New Capenna||1/82 to 1/164||1/164 to 1/492|
|Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty||1/136||1/272 up to 1/544|
|Innistrad: Crimson Vow||1/74||1/171|
|Innistrad: Midnight Hunt||1/75.5||1/151|
|Modern Horizons 2||1/126.5||1/253|
|Commander Legends EA Foils||1/204||1/400|
Or for specific cards, the rarest from each set:
|Card/Treatment||Set||Odds of pulling it from a Collector Booster (approx.)|
|Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex||Kaldheim||1/256|
|Japanese-Language Alternate Art Time Warp Foil||Strixhaven (Mystical Archive)||1/309|
|Foil Extended Art The Meathook Massacre||Innistrad: Midnight Hunt||1/151|
|Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami Kojima||Innistrad: Crimson Vow||1/171|
|Extended Art Foil Jeweled Lotus||Commander Legends||1/400|
|Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-Gitaxias||Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty||1/544|
|Blue Soft Glow Hidetsugu||Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty||1/219|
|Green Soft Glow Hidetsugu||Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty||1/444|
|Red Soft Glow Hidetsugu||Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty||1/1828|
|Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor||Streets of New Capenna||1/492|
|Borderless Foil Ancient Brass Dragon||Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate||1/352|
That stacks up well, and while Wizards loves to mess with things and change around numbers to make my life miserable, it’s worth noting that the rarest cards in this set are about 25% more common than in Streets of New Capenna. Opening 140 less Collector Boosters is certainly good news for the biggest vendors.
I hope that this helps inform your decisions about what to buy and not buy, as well as manage your expectations when you’re opening these packs.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.