The Math of Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate – Collector Boosters

Here we are, the dawn of a new set. Preorders are all over the place, spikes are happening left and right, and we’re one month away from Double Masters 2.

For right now, though, I want to focus on the Collector Boosters from Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate. Every set since the first Commander Legends I’ve calculated your odds, and I’m glad to bring you this set of data.

Please note that today’s piece is focusing on the Collector Boosters only. Set and Draft Boosters will have to wait, as those require a whole new set of tables and calculations.

Let’s get to it!

First of all, let’s go over what we’re told explicitly. This set has subdivided many of the types and treatments, which helps simplify what can be found where.

One thing I hate about this graphic is that it isn’t in order, according to the box opening videos I’ve watched. Just irks me. 

It’s a bit painful to say, but in terms of rarity, there’s only two slots we’re going to focus on here. The nonfoil, regular frame cards rarely carry a huge price difference from nonfoil showcase or foil regular frame. 

For instance, the slot for Extended-Art Commander rare/mythic. There’s 40 exclusive cards, 12 of them mythic. You’ll have a 1/67 of getting a particular EA mythic or 1/33.5 for a particular EA rare. (Artificer Class does not have an EA version.) Given the volume that’s going to be opened, that’ll be a LOT of cards. The prices on other EA rares/mythics from previous sets backs that up.

The Etched Foil (Legendary Rare/Mythic) slot in Collector Boosters is pretty straightforward. There’s 30 rares and just a pair of mythics. That means only 1/62 CBs will have a particular mythic etched foil, and you’re 1/31 to get whichever etched foil rare you wanted. This pool includes the five rare Backgrounds, which will not show up in the next slot. The other 27 cards are all the rare and mythic Legendary creatures.

Now, the last slot in the Collector Booster, traditionally where the biggest money and the rarest cards are found.

Let’s set up with the basics: When you get to the this slot in a Collector Booster, you’re going to get a Showcase (In this set, that’s the Monster Manual), Borderless, or Extended-Art treatment in foil. We’ve got 72 eligible rares and 22 eligible mythics. Since mythics are half as common as rares, we need to double the number of rares, but keep the same mythics. 

As a result, we get a pool of 176 cards. Two of each rare, one of each mythic. That means we have a 1/88 chance (reduced from 2/176) for any version of a particular rare, and a 1/176 chance of pulling any version of a particular mythic rare.

The short version is that you look up a card, see how many options you have. All rares and mythics in this set have one alternate frame, with the exception of the five Ancient Dragons. Those have a Borderless treatment and a Showcase treatment, and therefore will be the rarest cards in the set.

Rare with 1 alternateMythic with 1 alternateMythic with 2 alternates
1/881/1761/352
Rares with only
Extended Art (47)

Chances: 1/88 Collector
Booster Packs
Altar of Bhaal // Bone Offering
Archivist of Oghma
Ascend from Avernus
Astarion’s Thirst
Baldur’s Gate
Barroom Brawl
Basilisk Collar
Blade of Selves
Bountiful Promenade
Call to the Void
Caves of Chaos Adventurer
Descent into Avernus
Displacer Kitten
Earthquake Dragon
Elder Brain
Eldritch Pact
Elturel Survivors
Firbolg Flutist
Fraying Line
Gale’s Redirection
Horn of Valhalla // Ysgard’s Call
Illithid Harvester // Plant Tadpoles
Intellect Devourer
Jaheira’s Respite
Kindred Discovery
Lae’zel’s Acrobatics
Luxury Suite
Mighty Servant of Leuk-o
Mirror of Life Trapping
Monster Manual // Zoological Study
Morphic Pool
Owlbear Cub
Ravenloft Adventurer
Reflecting Pool
Robe of the Archmagi
Sculpted Sunburst
Sea of Clouds
Spire Garden
Tomb of Horrors Adventurer
Traverse the Outlands
Undermountain Adventurer
Wand of Wonder
White Plume Adventurer
Windshaper Planetar
Wizards of Thay
Wrathful Red Dragon
Wyll’s Reversal
Rares with only Monster
Manual Frame/Art
(Showcase) (25) 

Chances: 1/88 Collector
Booster Packs
Alaundo the Seer
Astarion, the Decadent
Baba Lysaga, Night Witch
Bane, Lord of Darkness
Bhaal, Lord of Murder
Duke Ulder Ravengard
Dynaheir, Invoker Adept
Gale, Waterdeep Prodigy
Gluntch, the Bestower
Gorion, Wise Mentor
Jaheira, Friend of the Forest
Jan Jansen, Chaos Crafter
Jon Irenicus, Shattered One
Lae’zel, Vlaakith’s Champion
Mazzy, Truesword Paladin
Miirym, Sentinel Wyrm
Myrkul, Lord of Bones
Neera, Wild Mage
Nine-Fingers Keene
Raggadragga, Goreguts Boss
Raphael, Fiendish Savior
Shadowheart, Dark Justiciar
The Council of Four
Wyll, Blade of Frontiers
Zevlor, Elturel Exile

Yes, you’re reading that correctly. Given these odds, a full 80 percent or so of rares will be in Collector Boosters’ last slot. Please note, though, that the Legendary Rare Backgrounds are not in this list. Those are in regular foil and etched foil, and therefore are not included for this slot.

Mythics with only Extended Art (19) 
(Includes the Commander exclusives)

Chances: 1/176 Collector Booster Packs
Baeloth Barrityl, Entertainer
Balor
Blood Money
Burakos, Party Leader
Captain N’ghathrod
Clan Crafter
Durnan of the Yawning Portal
Elminster’s Simulacrum
Faldorn, Dread Wolf Herald
Firkraag, Cunning Instigator
Folk Hero
Font of Magic
Haunted One
Majestic Genesis
Nalia de’Arnise
Pact Weapon
Passionate Archaeologist
Storm King’s Thunder
Zellix, Sanity Flayer
Mythics with Monster Manual Frame/Art (Showcase) (2) 

Chances: 1/176 Collector Booster Packs
Karlach, Fury of Avernus
Volo, Itinerant Scholar
Mythics with Borderless
Alternate Art (8)

Chances: 1/176 Collector
Booster Packs

Battle Angels of Tyr
Bramble Sovereign
Elminster
Legion Loyalty
Minsc & Boo, Timeless Heroes
Nautiloid Ship
Tasha, the Witch Queen
Vexing Puzzlebox
Mythics with Borderless Alternate
Art OR Monster Manual Frame/Art (Showcase) (5)
Chances: 1/352 Collector Booster
Packs (per version)
Ancient Brass Dragon
Ancient Bronze Dragon
Ancient Copper Dragon
Ancient Gold Dragon
Ancient Silver Dragon

Point of clarification here: This set has less overlap in versions than the last few did. No mythics have three special versions, and no rare has two. An interesting choice from WotC here, but it makes my life simpler.

Generally speaking, things are as rare in this set as they were in previous sets. Let’s have a couple of comparisons, handily from my own research.

Set NameOdds of a specific foil treatment rareOdds of a specific foil treatment mythic
CL: Battle for Baldur’s Gate1/881/176 to 1/352
Streets of New Capenna1/82 to 1/1641/164 to 1/492
Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/1361/272 up to 1/544
Innistrad: Crimson Vow1/741/171
Innistrad: Midnight Hunt1/75.51/151
Forgotten Realms1/631/126
Strixhaven1/154.51/309
Kaldheim1/641/128
Modern Horizons 21/126.51/253
Commander Legends EA Foils1/2041/400

Or for specific cards, the rarest from each set:

Card/TreatmentSetOdds of pulling it from a Collector Booster (approx.)
Phyrexian Foil VorinclexKaldheim1/256
Japanese-Language Alternate Art Time Warp FoilStrixhaven (Mystical Archive)1/309
Foil Extended Art The Meathook MassacreInnistrad: Midnight Hunt1/151
Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami KojimaInnistrad: Crimson Vow1/171
Extended Art Foil Jeweled LotusCommander Legends1/400
Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-GitaxiasKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/544
Blue Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/219
Green Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/444
Red Soft Glow HidetsuguKamigawa: Neon Dynasty1/1828
Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic PraetorStreets of New Capenna1/492
Borderless Foil Ancient Brass DragonCommander Legends: Battle for Baldur’s Gate1/352

That stacks up well, and while Wizards loves to mess with things and change around numbers to make my life miserable, it’s worth noting that the rarest cards in this set are about 25% more common than in Streets of New Capenna. Opening 140 less Collector Boosters is certainly good news for the biggest vendors.

I hope that this helps inform your decisions about what to buy and not buy, as well as manage your expectations when you’re opening these packs. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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