We’ve got a lot of Secret Lairs in our rearview mirror, and yet, the site itself is a pretty fascinating picture of what has gone before. 

Wizards has chosen to make lairs available on the site until they sell out, and in some cases, that’s taking quite a while. 

So today, I want to review the Lairs that are still available, and give some thinking to what lessons we can take away from those Lairs. 

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Rotation happened a week ago, but the prices have been on the downturn. We know that the dip in prices for cards that are rotating starts about six months before the actual date, and the data bears that out.

So with rotation in the rearview mirror, let’s talk about a few cards with Commander appeal that are at their lowest point in a while, and if they are going to go lower or if we should be buying now. 

As always, two caveats: First, reprint risk is very real on these. We’re a couple years old, we’re out of Standard, and any/all of these on a Special Guest, Secret Lair, or other reprint avenue is ranging from ‘eventually, sure’ to a lock. I’ve chosen popular cards and those are the most likely to gather attention and wallets. So be aware. 

Second, keep in mind that EDHREC is not a perfect data source. It’s only the folks who have bothered to fill out their decks online. I don’t have any decks on there, as an example. It definitely misses a lot of the casual players, so while it’s useful data, it’s not ironclad nor infallible. 

Sheoldred, the Apocalypse (pack nonfoil $60, 172k decks) – Let’s take a beat and look at the chart for Sheoldred in pack nonfoil over the last year:

Between incipient rotation and Standard being as aggressive as possible over the last nine months, Sheoldred has been left out of being four-ofs all over the place. Doesn’t stop her from being one of the best cards at a Commander game, since there are plenty of decks optimized to draw boatloads of cards at a moment’s notice. 

As much as I want to buy in on Sheoldred, I don’t think she’s done falling. I also can’t choose between the many premium versions available, though if you’re looking for a deal, the Phyrexian-language one is the cheapest of all. Reprints on this seem inevitable, but even so, this is a backbreaker of a card and if you need copies for decks, get them with my blessing. We might hit $50 or even $40 for this before the reprint. 

Silverback Elder (nonfoil $5, 57k decks) – Triple green is hard to do but this is a card that gets out of hand quickly. All you have to do is cast creatures, and you either gain lands or you’re Disenchanting all over the place. Both are good, and worth doing. This is just one of the mose useful cards to have around, and if you can cast it, this is a card they don’t bother reprinting and it’s $10 by next summer.

Leaf-Crowned Elder (nonfoil $2.50, 51k decks) – A little bit of a flier here, but with us heading back to Lorwyn soon these might be one of the elves that dodge reprints in SPG or Commander decks. Wizards generally prefers to give new toys, rather than use reprints lots of the old ones, because new cards means more boosters sold. It will happen that Elf decks get popular again, and when it does, you’ll want to have a whole stack of these ready to sell to the eager pointy-eared players. 

Loran of the Third Path (FIC foils $19, 196k decks) – This is so much fun to use in Commander, it shouldn’t be legal. First, you get value just on the cast, blowing up something annoying. But then the politics come into play, and you get to decide who is worthy of getting a card with you. My personal favorite move is ‘attack this person, and I’ll give you a card’ which just feels right.

We’ve got the Final Fantasy reprint foil to chase here, and even if you don’t like PSOne-level CGI, we’ve learned to never underestimate FF collectors or those who like a waifu. 

Haywire Mite (foil $1.50, 111k decks) – We get more and more ways to search up 1-drops, and while Urza’s Saga is among the most busted of these, what really puts it over the top is that this exiles instead of destroys. Can’t hit creatures, but get that The One Ring out of here! This will be a Secret Lair inclusion, but until then, this feels like a card that ends up as a $5 foil. Get yours now.

Tocasia’s Welcome (FEA $5, 102k decks) – There’s a lot of variations on this theme in Magic, but as an enchantment, you can get this into play and have it stay easier, furthering the snowball. Keep in mind tokens count, and you can do this for other players’ turns too. Don’t restrict yourself when there’s no real reason to do so.

Gwenna, Eyes of Gaea (FEA $7, 79k) – The push for five-color goodness means that this sort of enabler gets better and better. I don’t see this as a big Elf piece, as most Elf decks don’t have high-power cards that would untap Gwenna, but more of a standout in decks with lots of colors and a desire to jump ahead in mana. The FEA is the most special version out there, so enjoy.

Conduit of Worlds (FEA $7, 170k) – We’re seeing Crucible decks all over the place, and this goes right into those. We’ve gotten several cards that want to play lands from the yard, and this allows you to do more from the yard if you don’t do anything from the hand. 

Solphim, Mayhem Dominus (Oil-Slick Foil $38 ,115k as commander and card) – Every pinger, every bit of incidental damage, all of it adds up fast when this is around, and given the different versions, I like the unique art here best. It didn’t fall much in special versions at rotation, but it’s still a good pickup.

Faerie Mastermind (pack nonfoil $10, 195k) – Another card with the sort of graph we’re looking for, plus the already-present Commander appeal. 

No need to explain how good this is, but it’s up to you if you want to go after the regular nonfoils at $10 or the FEAs at $17. I think the regulars will hit $20 way before the FEA gets as high as $40, but if some combo pops up, it won’t matter at all. Pack foils are just about the same price as nonfoils, so that might be the right play. No wrong answers here! Remember that at its peak this year, pack nonfoils were going for $25+, so we’re getting in at the right time regardless. 

Breach the Multiverse (FEA $7, 125k) – The less special versions aren’t that much cheaper, and so I’d say go for the FEA ones. This is a combo and a half, and I know there were decks using this in Standard, though not always to strong effect. This goes wild in Commander, just watch out for the Etali decks.

Ozolith, the Shattered Spire (FEA $11, 146k) – We’ve gotten several sweet versions of the original Ozolith, and this should get some too. Until then, though, since the FEA is close in price to the regulars, get a little special and stock up. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The new set is fully released as of today, though the prerelease isn’t for another week yet. Still, we’ve got all the information we need to look at the breakdown Wizards gives us and figure out how hard it is to open certain cards.

There’s nothing serialized in this set, though there’s a mega-rare textless Sothera, the Supervoid that is in less than 1% of packs. 

So let’s look at the numbers, make some tables, and have some idea of how far someone will need to go to get the copies of the card they really, really want!

All of this information comes from the Collecting Edge of Eternities article, which tells us both how many of each card there are for each category, and what percentage of packs can open a card from that category. From there, it’s straightforward math. 

The last three slots in a Collector Booster are where we want to focus, as that’s likely to have all the value, but first, let’s address what Play Boosters add to the quantities in circulation for the more chase cards. We can’t open Galaxy foils in Play Boosters, but there is a tiny chance of opening special frame foils.

Play Boosters have a dedicated foil slot, which can have:

• A common (58%), uncommon (32%), rare (6.4%), or mythic rare (1.1%) from Edge of Eternities‘s main set
• A rare (1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) Stellar Sights land
• A rare (less than 1%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) borderless viewport, triumphant, or surreal space card

That first bullet point adds up to 98.5%. That means the mythic stellar sights, rare or mythic rare borderless viewport, triumphant, or surreal space cards add up to 1.5%. 

Traditionally, mythic is twice as rare as regular rare. 58 non-main-set rares, and 27 mythics. So there’s two tiny numbers to multiply: first, you’ve got a 1.5% chance of drawing from this group, and then you’re rolling for a card from a pool of 143 cards (2 sets of rares, one of mythics). All told, that means to get a specific foil mythic rare from this group it is going to take you approximately 9,524 Play Boosters, and 4,767 packs to get a specific rare from this group of cards.

All told, it is substantially harder to get a rare foil of those types from a Play Booster than it is to get anything from Collector Boosters. This does add some extra copies into circulation, but it’s such a small number that I’m not going to stress it when thinking about the numbers of cards getting printed.

The first slot we care about in a EOE Collector Booster is the special frame nonfoil, which can have:

• A rare (47%) or mythic rare (5%) extended-art card from the Edge of Eternities main set
• A rare (7%) or mythic rare (4%) borderless viewport land
• A rare (17%) or mythic rare (3%) borderless triumphant card
• A rare (15%) or mythic rare (2%) borderless surreal space card

It’ll be tough to get those four nonfoil mythics in the Triumphant style, and that includes the new three-mana Tezzeret. Otherwise, this isn’t too bad, though a bit rarer than past sets with a nonfoil slot like this. We’ve had a couple sets in a row where nonfoil got two slots like this, which doubles your chances, but in EOE we’re using that for the Stellar Sights sheet.

Speaking of the Stellar Sights, that’s the next slot, with foils, nonfoils, and Galaxy Foils mixed together:

• A non-foil rare (36%) or mythic rare (9%) Stellar Sights land
• A non-foil rare (18%) or mythic rare (4%) poster Stellar Sights land
• A traditional foil rare (12%) or mythic rare (3%) Stellar Sights land
• A traditional foil rare (6%) or mythic rare (1.5%) poster Stellar Sights land
• A galaxy foil rare (6%) or mythic rare (1.5%) Stellar Sights land
• A galaxy foil rare (3%) or mythic rare (less than 1%) poster Stellar Sights land

To no one’s surprise, the Galaxy Foils are the hardest pulls, requiring an enormous number of packs to land on the mythics. This slot adds up to 80% rares, making for some mostly unimpressive pulls and some extremely pricey ones. Galaxy Foil versions of these creaturelands are going to lead to some feelsbad moments, but that’s the price we pay for these right now.

Finally, let’s look at the slot with all the other chase foils and frames. This last slot can have:

• A traditional foil rare (38%) or mythic rare (4%) extended-art card from the Edge of Eternities main set
• A traditional foil rare (6%) or mythic rare (3%) borderless viewport land
• A traditional foil rare (13%) or mythic rare (2%) borderless triumphant card
• A traditional foil rare (12%) or mythic rare (2%) borderless surreal space card
• A traditional foil Special Guests card (6%)
• A traditional foil (9%) or fracture foil (1%) Japan Showcase card
  • All Japan Showcase cards will always appear in Japanese in Japanese Collector Boosters. For all other Collector Boosters, these cards appear in English two thirds of the time and Japanese one third of the time.
• A galaxy foil rare (2%) or mythic rare (1%) borderless viewport land
• A textless singularity foil Sothera, the Supervoid appears in less than 1% of Collector Boosters

These add up to 99%, so there’s some rounding errors going on for that textless Sothera. My guess is it lands at about the same rate as the galaxy foil Stellar mythics, around 2000 packs, but they gave us percentages that add up to exactly 100%, so we have no way of knowing for sure. 

The Japan Showcase cards are subdivided further in non-Japanese-language CBs, where you have a 2/3 chance of opening one in the booster’s language and a 1/3 chance of Japanese. So in an English pack, it’ll take roughly 1515 packs to get a specific Showcase in Fracture Foil, or 3000 packs to get a Japanese-language version in Fracture Foil.

This slot is also very heavily pushed towards rares. In Collector Boosters, 71% of packs will open a rare in this slot, including the 2% that have Galaxy Foils. There’s an additional 16% for the Japan Showcases and the Special Guests, leaving just 13% of packs for mythics from any grouping. In a box of 12 packs, you’re looking at 1.5 mythics total, on average, coming from this slot. Packs are swingy by nature, but this is a very pronounced example of such wide potential values. 

I hope this helps you make clear decisions about what to buy and what to open. If you want to talk about my math or methods, please reach out on social media or stop by the ProTrader Discord. Good luck in your pack cracking!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.