All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

The Mana Math of Magic: The Gathering | Star Trek

Welcome back for another episode of the Mana Math, where I take the hodgepodge of numbers Wizards gives us and break it down into the thing we want to know above all else: How hard is it to open the card we want most?

Luckily, we’re given the data needed to make that determination, so with a little math and a couple of tables, the answers await!

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expensive cards ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Are We Buying The Set Phasers To Superdrop?

This coming Monday, the 9th, we’re getting the second week in a row of a new Secret Lair drop, and there’s even a third premiering the following Monday!

The 9th has the ‘Set Phasers To…’ Superdrop, and we need to decide if we’re buying this or if it’ll languish on the site the way the Marvel History of Heroes is just sitting there, not gaining value. 

So let’s go over what we know and what I plan to buy.

For each of the Lairs, I’m listing the current EDHREC count, as well as the prices of other special foil versions. EDHREC is good data, if weighted towards stuff that’s been in multiple precons, but lots of people never bother uploading a deck to the site.

All the Lairs are $40 for a foil and $30 for a nonfoil, with no bundle prices posted as yet. 

Card NameEDHREC CountSpecial Printings
Eerie Interlude158,000Promo Pack Foil (THB #016) – $31
Secret Lair Drop (SLZ #245) – $2
Conjurer’s Closet284,000Borderless Foil (INR #321) – $8
Essence Flux169,000Retro Frame Foil (INR #354) – $8
Momentary Blink61,000Retro Frame Foil (TSR #339) – $1

Closet is a great example of bumped numbers due to precon inclusions, having been in one of the first precons as well as Aetherdrift commander. There’s only Eerie Interlude here as a real chase card, but that’s getting a double-tap by being included in Zeta right now. I’ll be shocked if any of the Trek versions end up at $10, and I think $5 is more likely.

These are fantastic lands, and you get two of each per purchase. At $40, that means each land has to sell for $3.33 for you to break even. That’s a pretty easy bar to clear. As an example, there’s 55 Secret Lair Mountains. Only nine of of them, foil or nonfoil, is lower than that price. I don’t have the space to buy more lands, but it’s also true that this is likely the least-printed of the Lairs, and thus might sell out first. 

A lot of suppositions in there, but the card average of $3.33 means that while I’m not ravenous for this drop, I’m surely not cranky about it either. 

Card NameEDHREC CountSpecial Printings
Demand Answers47,000Showcase Foil (MKM #289) – $1
Relentless Assault18,000Borderless Foil (MAR #025) – $8
Seething Song68,000Retro Frame Foil (9ED #212) – $23
War’s Toll13,000No non-regular frame printing
Warstorm Surge63,000Borderless Foil (TLE #038) – $3
Surge Foil (40K #209) – $9

This is a supremely underwhelming drop, with the awful combination of low demand and none of the special printings being pricey. All the versions of Seething Song are at least $10, but that’s also a card that hasn’t been in a booster pack since Ninth Edition in 2005. Yes, people need a matched set, and that helps inflate the price, but it still doesn’t make the drop worth the retail price. I like a Klingon-language card, just not at these prices. 

Card NameEDHREC CountSpecial Printings
Wrath of the Skies41,000Extended Art Foil (MH3 #352) – $4
Retro Frame Foil (MH3 #424) – $7
Commandeer27,000Borderless Foil (CMM #680) – $7
Illusionist’s Gambit11,000No non-regular frame printing
Buried Alive149,000Retro Frame Foil (MH3 #389) – $3
Borderless Foil (MH3 #464) – $4
Genesis Wave120,000Borderless Foil (CMM #672) – $2
Fracture87,000Japanese Alt-Art Mystical Archive Foil (STA #79) – $8
Borderless Mystical Archive Foil (STA #16) – $2

Another very mid drop, with no large demand and no expensive cards. It’s got neat stuff, but all of it won’t cost you much when you look them up as singles. If you like the references, help yourself, but there’s no intrinsic demand for this. 

Card NameEDHREC CountSpecial Printings
Inti, Seneschal of the Sun85,000Showcase Foil (LCI #329) – $3
Borderless Foil (LCI #374) – $4
Kambal, Profiteering Mayor7,000 / 8,000Extended Art Foil (OTJ #318) – $7
Silas Renn, Seeker Adept18,000 / 19,000Foil Etched (CMR #591) – $20
Thrasios, Triton Hero43,000 / 44,000Foil Etched (CMR #611) – $22
Special Guests Foil (SPG #42) – $47
Weatherlight67,000Prerelease Promo Foil (WTH #161) – $5

The big question is if there’s enough demand for the partners. Thrasios is frequently used as an infinite-mana outlet that lives in the command zone, but the Tidus printing in the FCA set is the only version made in the last three years. Silas I’m pretty sure will be a $5 card here. It’s unlikely that the cartoony version of Thrasios will end up as the most expensive, but $15-$20 is the price I’d predict. This Lair should grow over time, but take a while to be profitable. 

Card NameEDHREC CountSpecial Printings
Suture Priest40,000No Special Version
Gix, Yawgmoth Praetor8,000 / 92,000Mystery Booster 2 Foil (MB2 #245) – $18
Final Fantasy Foil (FIC #035) – $38
K’rrik, Son of Yawgmoth14,000 / 115,000Final Fantasy Foil (FIC #036) – $18
2021 Judge Foil (#002) – $40
Secret Lair Foil (SLD #1186) – $17
Elas il-Kor, Sadistic Pilgrim8,000 / 110,000Showcase Foil (DMU #300) – $1
Hive Mind12,000Secret Lair Drop Foil (SLD #1518) – $15

This is a neat-looking drop whose cards have potential. Elas is popular but his one special version isn’t. Both Gix and K’rrik have other special versions that aren’t super-pricey. This art style is often popular, though not overwhelming. Hobbit: Desolation is just under $60 on TCG, as is So Salty. I would expect similar things here, but a $20 change in price is not really enough to turn a meaningful profit after taxes, fees, and shipping. 

No bundle prices yet, so we’ll see. The promo for spending $199 is a cute doggie card, and we don’t bet against such, but we’re also not in a hurry on these. Dump Week will get us a lot of cheap copies. 

Overall, this is a thoroughly mediocre drop. Nothing in here screams ‘Buy Me Now’ and while the IP is good and nostalgic, the card choices aren’t enough. I expect the lands or Assimilation to sell out first, and Dump Week deals can be had for almost all of the cards in the Lairs. Personally, I’m getting one of Assimilation and that’s about it. Get what you want for personal use, but I don’t see any of these getting expensive right away.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Are We Buying The Secret Lair Countdown: Marvel’s History of Heroes?

In their never-ending quest to get all of our money, Wizards is giving us the next Countdown kits, this time with a Marvel theme.

We’re in the same general plan, with individually wrapped cards, and a chance for those cards to be either foil or surge foil. It’s a familiar playbook, since this is the third iteration, and the only one with a cohesive art theme. It’s also got cards that aren’t officially legal for several months, another new twist. 

But is it worth buying? Let’s discuss.

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expensive cards ProTrader: Magic doesn’t have to be expensive.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Resolving Current And Future Dilemmas

I love when we get a theme that takes a current idea in Magic and rewards us for it. In Star Trek, we’ve already gotten two potential Commanders for decks built around making choices. They’ve settled on calling this a dilemma, which fits nicely into being a Starfleet Captain.

Both Seven of Nine and Captain Sisko reward you for facing dilemmas, and we’re likely to see more cards referencing this game mechanic. So let’s go over what we’ve got for such choices, as well as choosing some potential specs. 

First, we need to review the rules for what is and is not a dilemma. Villainous Choice is not a dilemma, nor is it the act of choosing targets. Comet Storm isn’t a boatload of triggers.

Entwine does work! You choose both, but it’s still only one choice. “One or more” is one choice too, so you only get one trigger off of Cryptic Command. Spree is good for one choice too, even if you end up paying for more than one. There are several Alliance triggers that are modal, such as Gala Greeters, and that might be best.

There’s a couple hundred modal creatures, most of them with ETB. Lots of attack triggers, lots of damage triggers. I’ve got a list of creatures that have a useful trigger on combat and other such things, Sisko doesn’t even have to be in play yet. Upkeep trigger, play Sisko, you’ll still get the creatures at end step. Important note: If a dilemma triggers at end step, make sure to stack your triggers appropriately. 

There’s 536 modal spells. Pick literally whatever you want, Jeska’s Will, Akroma’s Will, and Farewell are top-ranked on EDHREC but the world is your oyster. It’s all about what you like best. 

The big draw to me is stuff that triggers for free at the beginning of combat. That way, you have a choice about what to play, if you want a dilemma payoff like Seven of Nine to be on the field when the dilemma happens. When you have creatures that enter play and give you a dilemma, you have to pay for one then the other. Same thing with attack triggers or damage triggers. I want dilemmas ready to go. Ergo, artifacts/enchantments which are already in play seem like the way to go.

Reprint risk is possible for these cards, we’ve got most of a bonus sheet left to go. Nothing’s set in stone, and I could easily see some sort of Black Market Connections reprint with Quark’s smiling face. (I appreciate the commercial focus of the Ferengi!)

Kimoyo Beads – UB reprints are super unlikely, so this is an excellent target for dilemmas, especially as it’s colorless and can go into any deck you want. 

Umezawa’s Jitte – Just take a beat and imagine this with Seven of Nine in play. Every time you remove a counter, you draw a card. Lost Jitte works too. 

Vision, Synthezoid Avenger – This triggers on each of your opponent’s spells, and as cool as it is, when you have to choose to phase him out then the fun ends till your turn. Pretty fun to have something that can only die to sorceries, and if they try it, you just cast a modal instant.

Black Market Connections – The gold standard for making good choices, remember that you only get one dilemma trigger even if you pick all three.

Felidar Retreat – The ‘Retreat to’ cycle is also Landfall-dilemma, but this is the best by far.

Glorious Sunrise – Four choices, all of them good depending on where you are in the game, and all the more awesome if the choice gives you a bonus.

SOLDIER Military Program – I picked the Surge foils of this on cast, as it’s cheap, not going to get reprinted, and is a steady stream of advantages.

Sylvan Scavenging – It’s an end step trigger, so be careful, but it’s another cheap way to get the good things constantly flowing.

Next, a list of creatures that don’t need to enter, attack, or deal damage to get a dilemma trigger:

Astarion, the Decadent – You don’t need to get the thirst trap art, but that’s the one more likely to pop.

Dreamshackle Geist – Free triggers plus easier attacks? Also a very political card at the table.

Glissa, Herald of Predation – Free combat triggers, all of them useful if not overpowered.

Kargan intimidator – The effects are mediocre, yes, but if you have the mana you can trigger three dilemmas a turn.

Koma, Cosmos Serpent – You have to sacrifice a serpent to get the dilemma, but if it’s worth it, you get a trigger on your opponents’ turn too.

Mister Hyde, Monster Within – Free upkeep trigger that likely draws you cards too.

Skinshifter – Like the Intimidator, you can pay the mana and get a dilemma. Limit is once per turn, but you can do this on every turn for many triggers.

The Fantastic Four – Yes, this needs to be in play and the requirement of four needs satisfaction, but this goes off a lot in a commander game.

Umaro, Raging Yeti – This is a case where a random decision is still a decision. Outlaws’ Merriment also applies, but Umaro has lots of fun modes. Don’t fear the discard trigger.

Vannifar, Evolved Enigma – The triggers at beginning of combat are super useful, don’t sleep on them. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.