All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
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PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 9/15/16

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I’ll be honest, I really miss the old Puca search tool. I miss it being a Puca creature, I miss being able to type in stuff in the different fields, the simple ease of what I knew went into a certain box.

I love the desktop site, it’s so pretty, but yeah, I’m still transitioning and I truly despise the mobile interface.

This week I want to look back at just Battle for Zendikar this week, because those are going to rotate out in six months and I expect these to start trending downwards. Oath of the Gatewatch will be following soon after.

I haven’t finished my research on the Inventions yet, but believe me, I’m super aware of what they offer on Puca. That should be ready next week, just in time for the Prereleases.

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Casual Fridays

The Mythics of Kaladesh

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Oh that new set smell!

Right now, we know almost all of the mythics. As of this writing, there are still two to go, and I’ll add those in next week. It’s a curse, having the Friday article!

I’m going to go over these thirteen cards and give my predictions of what it’ll be when Aether Revolt is done in six months, when supply on these will be at their maximum.

Saheeli Rai – Preordering for $20 or so, and that sounds about right. She’s cheap at three mana, and we keep having to learn this lesson about three-drop planeswalkers. However, while I like what she does, I don’t think she keeps this price. She doesn’t defend herself at all, but is fantastic when you can keep her safe. She also requires a deck with artifacts in order for her ultimate to be good.

That being said, I have to add a caveat: red-blue artifact shenanigans made Dack Fayden good enough for Vintage play, so that’s on my radar. I freely admit that I don’t know enough about that format, but I do know that Commander demand alone will keep her price above $10, though not to $15.

Rashmi, Eternities Crafter – This is a crazy good card. At worst, she adds ‘reveal and draw a card’ to all spells. At best, she gives every spell cascade. I can’t wait to jam her into every Simic deck, and the card advantage she offers will keep her right between $5 and $10, though I suspect the foils are going to be quite pricey, likely $30+.

Skysovereign, Consul Flagship – A very powerful card, especially since you get the three damage on the first cast. It’s preordering for around $5, and I feel that’s a pretty stable price range. It might go down a buck or two, but it’ll see just enough play to keep this price.

Angel of Invention – I love an instant army, and it’s great to have the flexibility of counters or Servo tokens. This is also in the $5 range, and I actually think it’s going to creep upward in price a little as these are fantastic in multiples. I don’t think it’ll be breaking $10 though.

Metallurgic Summonings – Hang on to your hats, I think this is one of the most impactful cards in the set. It offers spell-heavy decks an incredibly powerful benefit. It’s five mana, meaning it might not make Legacy waves. It would be amazing with just the ‘gain some tokens’ ability, but it also offers the mega-Regrowth effect once you’ve cast enough spells! This is going to jump into lots of Commander decks, and the foil is going to be $20+ easily.

Demon of Dark Schemes – Fantastic card, but tough to cast and slow and grindy. The definition of an awesome Commander card, and one that will hold its $3 price pretty well.

Chandra, Torch of Defiance – There’s no doubt the card is flexible and incredibly powerful. What’s in doubt is this price tag. It’s preordering for fifty, even sixty dollars, and that’s too high. She’s going to have to prove herself in Modern and Legacy to have a prayer of holding that price, as she’s a big-set mythic. Liliana, the Last Hope is going to stay high as a small-set card, but Chandra is going to have a much greater supply. I think she’s going to drop significantly, and will be between $20-$25 when we are done with this block.

Nissa, Vital Force – Sure, she’s able to ultimate the turn after you play her, and that’s nice, but it doesn’t affect the board. Her plus ability does let you accelerate a turn of mana, and getting things back is nice, but she’s five mana. I think she’s going to follow a path like Sorin, Grim Nemesis, and drop a bit below ten bucks.

Cataclysmic Gearhulk – If your biggest problem is a swarm of creatures, this is amazing. If you’re dying to one big flier, this does nothing. It’s not a wrath, and don’t confuse it with one, because their best creature is staying. As a result, I don’t think this will see a lot of play, and drop into the $2 range.

Torrential Gearhulk – Snapcaster Mage is better, let’s get that out of the way. It’s relatively rare to have hugely expensive instants that need to be recast. Gather Specimens? This is a fun card, and can be built around for value, but I don’t think it’ll ever be unfairly powerful. Most likely scenario is blue-black, casting this to recast a removal spell. The quality of instants directly affects the quality of this card, and I expect this to drop to below $3.

Noxious Gearhulk – This is a great big awesome creature, catching you up on the board, gaining you life, and requiring two blockers. Really impressive, and something that is going to make people figure out how to do this and Eldrazi Displacer in the same deck. It’s preselling for about $6, and I don’t see that falling more than a buck or two.

Verdurous Gearhulk – Another great Displacer target, this is, at worst, five mana for an 8/8 trample. It’s preselling for a couple bucks more, but because it can’t do much on its own, I expect to see the price tumble significantly, landing below $5.

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PROTRADER: PucaPicks for 9/8/16

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So we are neck-deep in excitement over Kaladesh, and it looks like it’s going to be a lot of fun.

I made my Eldritch Moon picks a couple of weeks ago, and my logic stands, though I’m going to be watching some of these prices closely. If Liliana, the Last Hope doesn’t lower in price by Christmas, I think we’re going to have a new pattern in Standard pricing, reflecting the paradigm of an 18-month cycle.

The final data will be in when Gideon, Ally of Zendikar rotates, and what his graph looks like.

However, this week, I want to look at Conspiracy: Take the Crown and examine what’s worth picking up. The set has had a big initial release and maybe it’s got another week or two of play, but I know I’m burning out on the set. I’ve done a lot of drafts and had a good time, but it feels like a lot of durdling and a lot of delaying, and that’s not always fun.

I think that we are near the highest point of supply on these cards, and that means it’s time to get the ones you want. Some of these picks are growth picks, likely to slowly increase, but some of these are speculative, because they are very good and are waiting to be broken.

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Casual Fridays

Learning from Past Conspiracies

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Good lord, I can’t draft Conspiracy: Take the Crown enough. Did two drafts in a row on Friday, one more Sunday, and I’d be up for drafting it any night of the week. The combination of valuable cards AND messing with a draft AND incredible multiplayer mechanics and gameplay is just breathtaking. This set is a jewel and I strongly encourage you to go experience it.

An aside: If your LGS doesn’t know how to do this, allow me to give a plug to mine. Eight people draft, break into two four-player pods. Two games will be played, with prizes to first and second place for each game. The second game is to mitigate from mana problems, and it takes a truly busted deck to win two games. More often, the person who won game one will get hated out early in game two.

My ravenous joy in this set is tempered by my experiences with the original Conspiracy set. I’m treating Take the Crown as though it’s the original set. There’s four things I learned from last time around, and I’m taking those lessons to heart.

Lesson #1: Stuff is cheap!

Exactly ten cards are worth more than a pack at $4. That’s a terrible ratio, and all of the special schemes are less than a dollar in nonfoil. Truly, that’s atrocious. Conspiracy is not a place for long-term value, and there’s a consistent graph of reprints tanking in value.

So I’m not looking for value in these, and in fact, I think that right now, you should be avoiding Take the Crown cards, as they have farther to fall. Likely around the release of Kaladesh, I’ll be prowling these cards for the best value, as supply will be maxed.

The impact of this being a print-to-demand set is real. Take the Crown is in the big-box stores, and there is no limit to the supply, aside from when people stop asking. Do you know when they stop asking? When your local store is stocked up and actually has more than they want! I’m hoping that my store and my peers want to keep drafting this until Kaladesh shows up.

Lesson #2: Except for Foils!

As I pointed out last week, there are some amazing foil multipliers at work in original Conspiracy, and there are some amazing ones already at work in Take the Crown. Leovold, for instance, is multiplied by seven. Kaya’s alternate-art foil is about ten times more expensive. Marchesa is fifteen times more pricey, to get the foil!

I’m all about shiny cards. I am absolutely that kind of magpie person, who needs to have the new one be shiny and new and some of these cards are calling to me. I want to let the initial rush fade, and be patient in my pursuit of these cards. I’m hoping they come down some in the second and third weekend of release.

Lesson #3: Sealed Product

While the original Conspiracy is a lot of fun to draft with friends, it’s not a place to park value. I refer you to others who have kept more sealed product around, and the short version is that there isn’t value in it. Even now, I can get a box of the original on Amazon for less than $100 shipped.

The value in long-term holds of sealed product is the value of the cards, not the worth of the experience. This has Berserk, and Show and Tell, and some other fun things, and the end value of those cards will determine the long-term value. I’m inclined to say no, nonetheless.

Lesson #4: Draft-specific cards don’t hold value

Allow me to give you the benefit of my ill-spent money. I went after the assorted ‘draft matters’ cards in foil, spending some significant amounts.

I bought early, and set them aside, thinking that as people build Cubes, they will need Cogwork Librarians and such. But they don’t. They absolutely don’t. So while you might really want that foil Sovereign’s Realm, you should get one for yourself and don’t try to corner the market.

My $20 foil Worldknits are just going to sit here in a corner and weep silently. Don’t join us.