All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
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PROTRADER: PucaPicks for August 11, 2016

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Hello and welcome to PucaPicks!

Each week, I’m going to go over cards that are undervalued, some of the cardboard you should send away right now, and some of the things that have had a lot of movement.

My goal is to help you buy low and sell high, increasing your points just by having the right timing.

For each card, I’m going to give you the current points and the foil price as well.

Today, I’m going to focus on Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch. We only have about eight months left of them being Standard-legal. I’m not sure what the eighteen-month period is going to do to these prices. Are people already selling out? Are they holding on desperately?

 

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Casual Fridays

Liberation

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I don’t have a lot of spare time. Maybe you do, perhaps you have hours you’re willing to wile away in endless pursuits of things that consume your time.

I don’t have a lot of extra space. Maybe you do, you might be living over your own personal Batcave, walls and racks of neatly organized cards.

I’m going to share with you a viewpoint that is going to cause some controversy, and why I’m wrong, and yet why I’m right.

I’ve stopped keeping cards after Draft and Sealed events, except for all rares and a select few uncommons. I find a kid at the store, or I leave them in a pile. I don’t want any more commons. I don’t want to sort cards. I don’t want to keep them in a box for years. I don’t want to hope that one day, these will be $2 uncommons.

Right now, at the same time, I’m sending out commons and uncommons from old sets on PucaTrade.

These two viewpoints might seem in direct opposition. I’m currently mining my old draft chaff for money commons and uncommons (good lord, did I draft a lot of Hedron Crabs and Blighted Agents!) but I’m not keeping them now? What gives?

I am going to walk you through what makes an old common/uncommon worth something, and why I think almost nothing in the modern day is worth it.

Criteria #1: Unique mechanic/keyword

For an older common or uncommon to make it to a $2 retail price, a lot of things have to go right. The first of them is that people have to want it years after it was printed. Very few commons and uncommons have enough power to be worth it.

Hedron Crab is worth it. Steppe Lynx is not. Both of these are one-drops with awesome landfall. I realize that the Crab is uncommon while the Lynx is a common, but it’s twenty cents vs. $3.50. The difference is that there will always be a place for milling someone out of the game, and just attacking for four on turn two is so boring. Lynx even sees more tournament play, but every casual player who sees the Crab, well, their eyes light up and their mind gets blown.

Criteria #2: Age/supply and reprints

Let’s face it: the game has grown enormously since Zendikar. It’s grown a whole lot even since New Phyrexia. There are tons and tons more packs opened in the present day, and while I wish I could give you exact numbers, I can’t. I know that every year, Wizards has bragged that the big Fall set was the best-selling set ever, and while I’m not sure how the new two-block model is going to fit in, that’s a lot of growth over five to seven years. We know that in talking to investors, there’s percentages of growth thrown around each year, but that’s inexact. So I’m not going to try and pull real numbers out, I’m content to say that the game is a lot bigger.

The simple truth is that there’s a lot less of older cards around, but I’m not even talking older as in Odyssey, I mean even Scars of Mirrodin block. The 6:2:1 model also applies, making third-set cards especially in demand sometimes.

Here’s an example: Stasis Snare vs. Journey to Nowhere vs. Silkwrap. The Journey is a whole white mana cheaper, and that’s big, big, super important. Removal used to be a lot stronger, and now we get conditional where it used to be universal. Silkwrap is interesting, as it got up to $3 at one point but now it’s back to a dollar.

Reprints are another big factor in a card’s price. Let’s look at the graph for Worn Powerstone:

Powerstone

It was in Urza’s Saga, and then one duel deck in 2010 (right at Magic’s renaissance) and it was $5, until it got three years straight of reprints: Commander 2014, 2015, and then Eternal Masters. Even with all that, the original is still $2 and in case you didn’t know, I love picking up the foil in the $12 range. Very safe and it’s got excellent growth potential.

Criteria #3: Powerful then and now, high demand

Finally, a card has to be good. Not just good. Great. Interestingly, removal spells aren’t always in this category, though Lightning Bolt is fascinating. Thirteen printings (with three of those having foil versions, two different promos, a range of arts!) and it was almost always a common!

I’m willing to listen to discussions about the most printed cards to keep a price, I think this is #1 on the list. It’s good, it’s cheap, it’s versatile. This is what I use to determine if I should keep an uncommon or common at the end of a draft.

 

So with this in mind, what am I keeping after a draft?

Duskwatch Recruiter: Could have been a rare easily, great on either side.

Erdwal Illuminator: Unique effect, will spike when they use Investigate again.

Geistblast: It’s a Fork stapled to a Shock. Gotta love it.

Graf Mole: Cheap and good blocker.

Heir of Falkenrath: cheap and aggressive, not as good for discarding as Oona’s Prowler but unique.

Lambholt Pacifist: Proven as a cheap and big creature.

Neglected Heirloom: I’m betting on casual Werewolf decks here.

Rise From the Tides: Huge payoff for spell-based decks.

Geist of the Archives: Good blocker and very relevant ability.

Graf Rats/Midnight Scavengers: I love all the Meld cards, long term. When are they going to have a chance to do these again?

Haunted Dead: Two-for-one on one creature that can bring itself back at instant speed.

Lone Rider: Lifegain decks are going to love this jerk.

Noose Constrictor: It’s going to be a $2 uncommon in six months.

Weaver of Lightning: Nothing else does this, so I’m interested.

That’s pretty much it. I don’t bother with anything else anymore, because the time and energy of sorting and storage aren’t worth it for me. Today’s sets aren’t going to be rare enough to be worth it in six years. And even if they are, and I find myself paying $10 for a set of Thermo-Alchemist, then I’ll think about sorting a 5000-count box and sifting through and thinking “Man, I’m glad I didn’t waste the time and energy.”

Casual Fridays

Stuff You Should Never Buy Again

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This week, I want to share something personal with you:

treasure chest

This is a paper chest filled with greeting cards my wife and daughters and I have been adding to for a few years now. Anniversaries, wedding cards, kids’ birthdays, you name it.

We give this chest to my toddlers when they need an indoor activity. When we are cleaning up, I check the price tags and I cringe to think how much money people have spent on these, and conversely, how much I’ve spent on cards for others.

In Magic, there are lots of things to spend money on. Some of them are avoidable. Some aren’t. Let’s go over some of the things you should never buy again.

I want to be clear that if you’re into collecting some of these things, that’s awesome. I’m glad you’re finding a fun niche related to this game, but I’m focusing on what you need to play.

#1: Single Booster Packs

Listen, I’m with you. Holding that pack, thinking about what it could be, anticipating that sweet foil, come on, come on, jump to the rare…(crap). Feel free to fill in the name of any card worth less than a dollar for crap in the previous sentence.

Buying loose boosters at your store is at best scratching a lottery ticket. I’ve written about this before and the odds are never in your favor. Not even this premiere week. You want a card? Buy that card. Buy the playset. It’ll cost less. Even in foil.

This is even true for the uncommons you want. If you buy a box of a set, odds are that you’re not going to get four of a certain uncommon. Drove me batty when that stuff would happen.

Buying loose boosters online is even worse. Mapping packs is a thing. Weighing packs to extract foils is a thing. Peeking through the plastic at pre-Ice Age packs, to pluck out rares, is a thing. Stop buying boosters!

#2: Life pads

I get it. Writing your life total on the match slip is so very unrefined, like you’re struggling for scraps. Also, it’s a small space and you can’t take notes on what happens, cards to look out for, all sorts of things.

You know what you need? A fifty-cent spiral notebook from the grocery store. A small legal pad. Or better yet, one of the huge stack of life pads that vendors give away at big events. One Grand Prix will take care of your needs for years.

I’m not going to link them, but if you spend $12 on a paper pad that nicely bound or $30 on an e-writer, I’m going to know you’re someone with more money than sense. A life pad that can break?? Come on.

#3: Dice

I’m all for sweet dice. I’ve got a couple of Iron Dice here someplace that I can’t put in a bin with other dice because the Iron ones crack the plastic of the others.

Know what else I have? Multiple bags of plastic dice and assorted counters/beads/stones.

And this is after I used to spend a lot of energy tracking down places that would buy old spindowns! Used to be a lot of profit in that, but not anymore.

You need a few dice and a couple of stones. That’s it. Tokens are all over the place, scoop some up after a draft. People leave dice on the floor or on the table all the time. If you spend money on dice, you’re buying tiny art pieces, and that’s cool, but all you need is five D6 and you’re good for 99% of games, unless you play Commander games that get out of hand.

#4: Playmats

Now this is going to piss some of you off. You’ve got playmats that were awesome prizes, that have favored art, or just carry significance. And I’m with you: I’m quite fond of my MTGPrice playmat.

Know what I’m not so fond of? My stack of GP mats. I kept the first couple, and then I realized that I was never going to use them, and I started selling them at the events, which has been great for me. Haven’t regretted a moment of it.

Is there a market where people buy and sell these mats? Absolutely. The art on a mat can make a big difference to its value, such as the two GP Vegas mats.

I’m all for buying the mat you want. And that’s it.

Every extra mat you have is just something you need to store and/or move. Don’t keep them. I’ve yet to see one rip from just being used, even if you fold it instead of roll it.

#5: Fancy deck boxes

I appreciate the art and craftsmanship of Etsy, I really do. There are some amazingly awesome things that you can get for dice, or decks, or even your whole cube.

I have to tell you, I’m hard on my Magic stuff. Boxes get put in the backpack, other things land on them, I squish it when I don’t take off my backpack when sitting on the bus…and so on. Perhaps you’re someone who takes better care of your things than I do, and if you sit down with me, unfold three trays and have everything immaculately organized, I might ask how much it was.

Mostly, you’ll be like the rest of us and have a stack of different things and be mostly put together, and be able to do so for far less money. Deck boxes are useful but replaceable for cheap, on the rare instances that they break. These are also often giveaways at a GP or other event, and if you want to personalize them, I suggest a layer of primer first.

 

 

Look, I’m not trying to make you feel bad about stuff you’ve bought that brings you joy. You’ll notice I left off binders and backpacks/bags from this list, because you’ll find what you need quite easily. Sleeves as well–I turn mine over frequently.

What I want to stop you from doing is spending money on stuff you don’t need to spend money on. Spend your money on all sorts of cards, just don’t go buying accessories that aren’t as needed.

Casual Fridays

The New Pattern?

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We are three months away from having the old pattern of Standard be gone completely. It’s a new and exciting time, as we try to figure out what effect there will be on our favorite cards.

Let me introduce you to how things used to be:
elspeth price

Do you remember her? Tokens all over, fetches finding battle lands, her sick combo with Wingmate Roc, where you could minus her to kill their Rhinos and keep your birds? How about with Devotion strategies? Remember when you had to have a plan for her?

Elspeth was a staple at first, her price dropping down slowly, but spiking when the new block was released. This is a trend that had been well-established, going back more than a few sets, where the next big set would introduce mechanics or decks that played very well with the cards from the previous sets.

Then, when the rotation was about six months away, the card would begin to lose value, as people got rid of extras and tried to keep no more than a playset. Elspeth was hit extra hard, as her Duel Deck vs. Kiora came out about the time of Fate Reforged.

That’s the old way. What harbingers do we have of the new way?

hangarback

Go ahead and look up how many GW Tokens builds are playing Hangarback. I’ll wait. It’s a long list. This card is a four-of all over the place, it’s seeing some Modern and even Vintage play, and yet here it is, south of $5 for a card that reeks of value! It’s gone down ever since its release!

Maybe it’s because of Magic Origins, maybe because it’s a rare. There are a lot of factors at play and I am not pretending to have all the answers. One card does not define a trend, but good grief, this is a powerful and commonly-played card to be so cheap and to have consistently fallen in value.

Here’s another card I’ve been watching closely:

gideon
Gideon is the first planeswalker in some time to be an automatic four-of, because his emblem is an easy out for extra copies. He is just as ubiquitous as Hangarback, and is a mythic! Despite all that, he is staying stable. The rotation for him is in 2017, so he’s got three sets to create a new pattern.

But will he? I like stability, but what I really like is the chance to go up. Unfortunately, that’s all it is right now: a chance. If there were more time to go, I’d like his chances more, especially as he’s BFFs with Nissa, Voice of Zendikar. That’s a combination I would like to put serious money on, except that the window for profit is a lot smaller.

Avacynprice

Avacyn is still being opened. She’s in one pack of Battle for Zendikar and we’ve got three months of EMN-EMN-SOI in front of us. She hasn’t hit maximum supply yet, but she’s so good and played so frequently that you might expect her value to be trending upward. Not at all, though, not at all.

I’m looking around, and I’m seeing a pattern of cards that are fantastic in Standard not growing in price as they used to. I’m not sure if it’s the timing, or increased awareness, or greater supply, but Standard doesn’t seem to have the big gains it used to.

Sure, we get spikes on Demonic Pact when Harmless Offering is spoiled, or Day’s Undoing gets a couple bucks thanks to a new prison-style deck, but those are small and don’t appear to be sticking around. Plus, those are rotating when Kaladesh arrives, and no one is going to buy more than the fewest possible.

So if Standard isn’t where we find the chance of increasing value, where do we look?

kalitas

Kalitas is not nearly as commonly played as Gideon or Avacyn, yet he’s worth more. He’s a small-set mythic, true, but look at where he’s seeing consistent play that the other two aren’t: Modern.

I’m also paying attention to Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger. He’s golden in Tron, a turn-four play if you get the set plus an extra Tower. Oof.

Want another example? Look at Nahiri, the Harbinger. Same set as Avacyn, played in a lot less decks, worth about $5 more. She’s a two-card combo that takes a little time and has some potential for disruption, but the power, and the price, is worth the attention.

I’m not saying this is the pattern for all time in the future. I don’t have enough data to make that prediction.

What I am doing is keeping an eye on these cards, and others, in order to make sense of things. Maybe Gideon will spike in Kaladesh. Maybe Kalitas falls off the map. We will have to see, but these slow decreases for very good Standard cards may be the new normal.

I think Gideon and Nissa are going to tell me the pattern for the new Standard. If they go up during Eldritch Moon or Kaladesh, and then drop like rocks during Aether Revolt, that would mean the old pattern is still in play, just on a condensed timeline.

What I suspect, though, is that people have learned their lesson about the value of cards as they approach rotation. No one waits to out their extras anymore, and that could mean a whole new pattern to learn.