By: Cliff Daigle

You may or may not know this about me, but I have one foiled-out Commander deck. It’s tribal Vampires, Grixis colors (Garza Zol, Plague Queen), and I didn’t intend for it to be the all-shiny deck, but it is and it’s the only deck I aggressively chase foils for.

As you can imagine, the foil manabase has been an expensive proposition, to the point that I only have a foil Bloodstained Mire that I opened early on in Khans drafts. The deck really wants a foil Scalding Tarn and a foil Polluted Delta, and until recently I’d resigned myself to spending a little of my Christmas bonus, likely about $100, to get a foil Khans Delta.

Then Battle for Zendikar, and the Expeditions, landed. Now I had a new decision about which version I wanted and as I kept an eye on eBay, a strange thing happened:

The price on eBay has gone down by $20-$30 since Battle for Zendikar came out.

Now I’ll be the first to admit, I was telling you to get foil fetches when Khans block ended. That’s traditionally when the prices are lowest on things and that was certainly the case for the nonfoil fetches. Those have gone up significantly since, while the foil trends downwards.

If I was a fan of foil fetches before, am I a bigger fan now? Mostly, yes. Personally, I feel that the Onslaught versions are more aesthetically pleasing, but more on that in a moment.

Other writers, on this site and on other sites, have pointed out that we are reaching the floor on the Expedition lands, and that if you want them, you should get them relatively soon. I agree with this viewpoint, and if I wanted Expeditions, I’d buy them now. We will have a small amount added during Oath of the Gatewatch, but the draft format is going to be Oath/Oath/Battle so it’s not a large addition, especially at Sealed events.

Also worth noting is that the rush of players who HAVE TO HAVE THE NEW SHINY has passed, for the most part. You can see the effect of these types of acquisitions on Blade of Selves, a card I mentioned last week, as it started low, spiked massively as players flocked to get the new toy, and has come back down to earth.

This is what happened with Expeditions, as players out of the gate wanted these and wanted them badly. Prices were insane, the frenzy was real, and thankfully the hype has died down.

As part of that hype, though, a secondary effect took hold: players spent less on the other versions, especially the Khans fetches. The foil versions of shocklands are due to go up too, but the Expeditions have sucked up a lot of the money that would have gone into Return to Ravnica or Gatecrash foil shocks.

With the extra supply of Expeditions, there’s simply more to choose from. A lot is going to depend on a player’s personal taste. Are you into old-frame foil fetches? Maybe judge foils catch your fancy? Perhaps the three-quarter-art or the kooky border on the Expeditions make it worth your dollars.

It’s interesting to watch how Expeditions have helped keep the prices lower on the included cards while adding a new version of those cards.

One other factor to note: It appears vendors are cutting their buylists on the Khans foil fetches across the board. All five fetch lands have a decrease in their buylist price recently, indicating that they have a full stock and don’t feel they need to pay more.

The buylist dip is also an indicator of retail demand. People aren’t buying as much of this version anymore, and that’s a chance for us to move in.

If you want to have foil fetch lands, do it relatively soon. I’m placing strategic eBay bids and being patient, because I’m sure I can land a foil Delta at $60 on eBay, unless one you of you sniples it from me.

I also want to give you a caveat: the presence of Expeditions is probably going to keep the prices of the regular foils down. Expeditions are something different and unique, qualities that Magic players love to have in their Cubes and Commander decks. The more foil versions there are, the less chance that all the money will be concentrated. Players have a variety of ways to invest their foil dollars, and that will keep all of them pretty stable in the long run.

So if you pick up some foil fetches or shocks or battle lands, don’t expect a huge return anytime soon. I do think they will slowly go up in value, but this injection of supply will keep prices low.

One more thing about Expeditions: There are more yet to come. Speculation remains rampant, but most agree that the 20 Expeditions of Oath will be the new five battle lands, the ten filter lands, and then five more. Those other five might well be the Scars of Mirrodin ‘fast lands’ like Seachrome Coast, since it needs to be a cycle of five. Regardless, I’d expect the pre-existing foils to take a hit on their prices, so if you’re sitting on a playset of foil Twilight Mire, you might want to think about selling high.

By: Cliff Daigle

So the sets are on the shelves and wow it’s underwhelming. Nothing is Legacy gold–yet–and while I’m hesitant to say never…it doesn’t look good.

Today I want to look at the new cards in Commander 2015 and decide how much I’d pay, in trade or cash, for these new toys. Some of these I am dying to get, and others I’m going to be patient on.

Blade of Selves ($14)

I started writing this on Sunday, when the price was $6:

“This is going to be the most expensive card from this set by summer. It works beautifully with effect like Doubling Season and if you can copy the Blade then that’s amazing too. Note that this does not play the way you want with Nacatl War-Pride.

I think this will be in the $10 range because it’s universal and powerful. Commander decks tends to be packed with creatures that give value of some sort right away, and this gets you three more of those. There are very few decks that don’t want this effect, so the demand will always be there. I also appreciate how this is only relevant to original-format Commander. It’s worthless in 1v1 or Tiny Leaders. ”

This card is now at $14, and a big part of that is what I identified: It’s bonkers. Three Eternal Witness triggers? Don’t mind if I do! Thank goodness the tokens are exiled, but all it takes is a fun sacrifice effect to get some leaving-play value.

I stand by my earlier thoughts: This will be a $10 card in the long run, but this initial rush is from the people who don’t want to be patient. They want the new toy and they want it now. There’s a rush on these because I don’t think many people want to buy a deck and extract value from the singles. I’ve told you not to do that, but the Boros deck is tempting! I already have a home for the Blade and the Magus of the Wheel, and I think Oreskos Explorer has some potential…but that’s sort of it. There’s only three sellers on TCGPlayer with this card, and a total of 22 copies available. The demand has been real! We might even see it ride the wave up to $20 within the next week,

I’m going to watch this price closely. How many people buy this deck and crack it open? It’s no True-Name Nemesis, and right now the Blade is about double the next most expensive card. The value isn’t there for the entire deck, especially if lots of people start trying to do it!

On that note, TCG does have some people selling the sealed deck for under $30….

Mystic Confluence ($9)

If this were four mana, it would be in the conversation for “counter unless they pay 3, draw two cards.” I do not think this goes higher and I’d expect it to drop to $5 or so. Conditional counterspells have to be cheap, and while this has a delightful flexibility, it’ll never be expensive.

That doesn’t mean it’s the same thing as bad, though. There aren’t many other cards that offer this flexibility, but it lacks the raw power of some other blue instants.

Ezuri, Claw of Progress ($4)

Along with Bloodspore Thrinax, there’s some awesome combinations of cards to be had in the Simic deck. Ezuri is icing on the cake, though, and really gets busted depending on the theme of the deck you built. At his worst, he’s buffing himself and that’s not what people want to be doing.

He’s also fragile, but all it takes is one or two activations of his ability to get out of hand quite quickly. Master Biomancer is the popular choice, but let’s not overlook what Ezuri can do with something like Wild Beastmaster! For sneaky fun, add him to Cauldron of Souls and keep the fun flying.

Ezuri is in a color combination that’s all about fun interactions, but the price isn’t going to go too far up or down.

Meren of Clan Nel Toth ($5)

I’ll be honest, I thought Pharika, God of Affliction was going to have an ability like this, and I love the nature of this ability. Stuff dies all the time, and your opponents need to be able to respond during your turn for you to get no value off of her ability. It’s true that they could just untap and wipe the board, but the potential is certainly there. I think her price will go down a little, but I want to put an idea in your head: She only needs one or two counters to be powerful in a Legacy deck. She would absolutely be a surprise fun-of, a creature that every turn got back a Tarmogoyf or Young Pyromancer or Deathrite Shaman.

Magus of the Wheel ($5)

I was hoping for a new Magus cycle but this is a phenomenal card in any setting. I’m surprised that it didn’t show up in any Burn lists but it being three mana, even for a 3/3, is a little pricey.

I think this is another one that will creep upward in price, but not by much. It’s really hard to cost three mana in decks so light on lands, even Browbeat isn’t good enough.

Allow me to recycle a phrase from last year, too: This is very good with Nekusar, the Mindrazer.

Oreskos Explorer ($1)

This is not going to have legs. It’s not going to spike. It’s worse than Knight of the White Orchid in 1v1 games. Keep the optimism in check.

Scourge of Nel Toth ($1.50)

The reanimation potential is there. Sacrificing Bloodghasts or other reanimation creatures could really be amazing at some point, but Legacy reanimation is much more powerful in the payoff. This doesn’t hold a candle to Griselbrand, or Iona, or whatever is the target.

Dread Summons ($1)

It’s a mill card with defense potential. It does mill yourself as well, so it’s not the best finisher in an infinite-mana deck, unless you plan for it with Gaea’s Blessing or an Eldrazi.

I think this Commander series is much like the last two years: The decks are well-built, lots of fun synergies, with just the right level of being deliberately underpowered. They also are not going to have a lot of financial relevance, even with the current spike on the Blade of Selves. Be patient and you’ll get great value.

By: Cliff Daigle

In my never-ending quest to gain value from Magic, I feel like there are times when the correct financial play is obvious. Architect of Thought is $5 when Dragon’s Maze is out? Pick up a few. Hero’s Downfall is $10? Move them out!

In the last couple of years, though, I feel I had a huge swing and a miss recently: fetch lands.

Like many people, I didn’t advocate trading aggressively for fetches while they were in print. I never missed an opportunity to trade for them when they were available, but I also felt fine trading them away as well. There was no point hoarding them, because there were so many and people got the sets and specific ones they needed relatively quickly.

You know, like what happened with shock lands in Return to Ravnica block?

However, the time has come to admit I was wrong in this viewpoint. The allied fetches have seen remarkable growth recently, and I think there are several reasons why.

As always, I want to think about where I went wrong so I don’t do it again.

These have doubled since their low point of Dragons of Tarkir. Doubled!

But let’s look at shock lands and compare them.

These have stayed relatively flat after they rotated out of Standard, and didn’t move much after a minor spike at the beginning of Theros block, but they went back down until rotation.

I thought that fetches would follow the same pattern: bump a little bit once they weren’t in drafts anymore, but stay stable. I certainly wasn’t expecting Polluted Delta to rise the way it has, or any of the fetches. So what the heck happened?

Factor #1: Theros vs. Battle for Zendikar

Let’s face it: Theros as a set introduced us to devotion as a mechanic. Return to Ravnica block had many good multicolor cards, but the powerhouse decks were focused on casting lots of the same color of cards.

Battle for Zendikar has landfall as a mechanic, and fetches certainly help with that, but the main thing is that the theme of Khans of Tarkir hasn’t faded at all. Everyone still has their Siege Rhinos and playing three or four colors is even easier now. (More on that in a second.)

Factor #2: Modern

I overlooked this as a factor in the price. Shocks had already been legal in Modern, and this was just adding to the quantity available. This was also the time when Modern really began to take off as a format, since people could bring their newly acquired shock lands over to this format without having to spend much on the manabase.

The allied fetches hadn’t been legal in Modern before, and that meant players could have exactly as many fetchlands as they wanted, in any color distribution. Also, I expect that not many players want to move their lands from the Standard deck to the Modern deck and back again, so there’s probably a bit more of a drain on the supply.

I know I truly despise moving cards between EDH decks, and I’d hate moving playsets around even more.

Factor #3: Casual players

Before the reprint, an Onslaught Polluted Delta was up to $120. It was only legal in Legacy and Vintage, and it was the king price-wise. The announcement sliced that value in half, and now it’s trickled down to $40.

Players who wanted Onslaught fetches for their Cube or Commander decks might have been priced out, but when Khans landed, a good amount of the supply went to those players. I know I’ve added those fetches to all of my decks, and I can’t wait for the enemy ones to be reprinted so I can finally get a foil Scalding Tarn without taking out a mortgage.

As a side note, the reprint in Khans of Tarkir did affect foil prices too. Foil Delta went from about $475 to $350. Normally, I see foils as a safe place to put value, especially old-frame ones, but I need to think about what affected this price.

Factor #4: Battle Lands

I think this is probably the biggest reason that the fetches have spiked so hard. It’s been a long time since one land was able to get you your choice of four colors of mana. Polluted Delta can get you anything but green mana! In Standard! To get this level of flexibility, you have to go to Modern (and pay two more life) or Legacy (and buy duals!).

When the easy mana of fetches + battle lands is added to the relatively low power level of Battle for Zendikar, you have a formula that pushes players to play lots and lots of colors. This doesn’t even count how delve cards are begging for extra cards in the yard, to the point that Evolving Wilds is showing up in some lists. Even the mechanic of converge for Radiant Flames or Painful Truths encourages multi-color play, and there aren’t any cards yet that strongly push players towards a mere two colors.

The cards in Khans of Tarkir are, by any objective measurement, more powerful than Battle for Zendikar. Being multicolored is a design tool allowing cards to be stronger, because needing three colors is supposed to be hard. Unless you’re paying life or going through other contortions, casting Mantis Rider on turn three shouldn’t be a given, but that’s where we are today.

We are only there until April, though. Shadows of Innistrad lands on April 6, and now we begin the new world of 18-month Standard. I’ve held onto my fetches long enough. I’m trading them now before they begin to fall. I’m not going to try for 120% when I’ve already made 100% gains in value. I’m going to also suggest that if you have fetches in any casual deck, that you take them out, trade or sell them, and then pick them up again in April when they have fallen.

By: Cliff Daigle

The new set of Commander preconstructed decks is coming out next week. The MSRP is going to be $34.99 and I’m here to tell you to stay away.

The only reasons to buy them are:

1. You have a small collection and want to have more cards for your decks to choose from.
2. You and others agree to use these as-is or some league-type variant with minimal changes.

There is not going to be money up for grabs in Commander 2015. At best you’ll acquire $40 or so in value, but retail value isn’t going to get it done.

If you are a professional at this, you don’t need me to tell you this information. But maybe you are new at this. Maybe you haven’t been exposed to what these decks mean.

There is not money to be made in anything but the original Commander set. Keep in mind, that was printed in 2011. The player base was significantly smaller, the format had just begun to take off, and then they waited two years to do it again.

If you look at the prices of the cards from that set, you notice how much more expensive they are. This is only due to scarcity. The cards are good, don’t get me wrong, but what made Scavenging Ooze a $45 card briefly was the very small number in circulation.

Let’s look at some examples. Containment Priest was infamously being bought for $40-$50 on the floor of GP New Jersey, as people sought sideboard options for Legacy Sneak and Show-type decks.

And now it isn’t. $11 and falling.

As time passes, the unique effects of a card can cause the price to go up. This is the case with Toxic Deluge:

It has yet to be a four-of, as for one more mana you get Damnation, but that mana is important! It’s creeping upward for about the past year, and this is unlikely to get a Standard printing.

Here’s the scenario I warned you about a couple of weeks ago, where casual cards get reprinted and never recover their value: Goblin Sharpshooter.

It lost half its value almost immediately, and then had further to fall. Black Market was spoiled this week, as I warned you about, and that’s the trajectory I’d expect it to follow.

It is going to be hard for you to take my advice. The first few days, the prices will be crazy. PucaTrade Will be full of people who want certain cards. I am advising you, very strongly, to not throw $40 away in the quest to make $46.

One of my very first articles for this site, printed more than two years ago, told you to be patient. This is advice I stand by. You will lose money and value trying to be the first one to get the new toys. All you need to do is wait 3 to 4 weeks.

Don’t bother with the reprints either. In the 2013 and 2014 releases, there has been exactly one card that has gone up in value: Wurmcoil Engine.

I want to repeat myself: I’m not saying these decks are bad to buy. What I am saying is that these decks will not have a strong return on your investment if you are trying to sell or trade them to other people.

Please do not bring up True-Name Nemesis. There was a time where you could buy the deck, sell that card, and then keep the remaining value.

Wizards’ stated goal is to keep this a casual product. When Legacy players bought the decks up, they made sure that the second printing had extra copies of Mind Seize.

We have the example and we have the history. I will be spending probably $15 (tops) worth of Pucapoints to get the few cards I want. I think that too many people fixate on the original Commander product, without understanding the numbers and time involved. You can still find Built from Scratch in stores and on eBay for MSRP, and that has a Wurmcoil in it!

If you look at the buylist prices for the last two Commander releases, you’ll see that they are proportionally lower than most other cards, because stores know they can get these cards just by opening a package.

Let’s be specific for a moment. Let’s say you want five of the cards in a given Commander deck, so you buy the deck and get your cards. Great! Now you have 60-80 other cards as trade bait, depending on how many of them you want to keep. Selling them is going to get you about 30-40 percent of the trade value, and trading them is going to take forever. My favorite example was Mind Seize, because people took out 2-3 cards and sold the rest on eBay for $10 or less.

So, just to sum it up for you: You should only buy the new Commander decks if you want to use most or all of the cards in the deck. If you want a few choice singles, you’ll be best served by waiting a couple of weeks and trading for/buying the singles.

Oh, and make sure you look at your deck and decide what you’re taking out first. If you can’t decide, don’t get the new card. Simple way to save a little hassle.