All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

Watching the Fall

By: Cliff Daigle

I’m watching Modern Masters 2015 very carefully.

There’s a lot of things happening with this set. The packaging is causing all sorts of nicks and dings in the cards. The collation seems to be off, resulting in abnormal amounts of foils, of non-foils, extra rares and no rares. Boxes have been opened with foil Rusted Relic being the prime takeaway. The spacers on the print sheet have made it into packs.

But really, I’m focused on the cards themselves.

I wrote a few weeks ago how we all lose at pack wars. That is, opening a pack at MSRP has worse odds than a lottery scratcher ticket, but at the time, we didn’t have the full Modern Masters spoiler to work with.

So let’s take a look at the numbers, the figures that are keeping me far, far away from buying any packs.

There are 53 rares and 15 mythics in the set. Right now, 22 of them have a price of $10 or more. I’m going to leave out foils and ignore commons/uncommons, for distribution reasons in the case of the former and the latter doesn’t have much besides Electrolyze and Lightning Bolt.

You currently have a 32% chance of making your money back on a single pack of Modern Masters 2015, a figure which will not stay that high. 

You have a very small chance of pulling a Tarmogoyf, the winningest of lottery tickets, currently at $160. That will get you the value of most of a box. Two other cards are more than $40, seven others more than $30, and another dozen at between $10 and $30.

That’s before this weekend’s festivities. There will be at least ten thousand Sealed pools opened, that’s 60,000 packs, even before counting second-day called drafts and side events during this weekend’s three Grands Prix. There are a lot of Magic finance people on site in Vegas already, and I fully expect buylists to be dropping fast on site, and others will follow online.

If the odds of making your $10 back are already one in three, I would suspect that it’ll be at 25% or lower after this weekend and the enormous about of supply about to be added.

In my area, there are places doing Modern Masters 2015 drafts for $45 or $50, and I can’t think of an easier way to set money on fire. There’s a 4% chance that I open one card that currently has the value of that draft (that’s 3 rares/mythics out of 68), but value isn’t the same as cash, especially if I don’t play Modern as a format.

Is there a chance that I open a Tarmogoyf and trade it in for $150 or more in store credit? Sure. I devoutly hope that you take that credit and sink it into anything else you desire, and not more Modern Masters packs.

Stay away from drafts, buying packs and buying singles right now. The prices have farther to fall and fall they will. Foils and nonfoils alike, you don’t want to be buying singles just yet.

I confess that I have my eye on a few select foils for different EDH decks of mine. My wife is building an Oona, Queen of the Fae deck and she needs a foil Bitterblossom and a foil Vendilion Clique. The prices on those have already come down a pleasing amount but I’m still waiting.

Keep in mind that not a lot of people play Modern casually. It’s a competitive format, and one that can see a lot of shifts very quickly. Think of how quickly Eggs arrived and how quickly it was removed from the format. Think of the Birthing Pod ban. Who knows what’s next to enter or leave this format?

I’d be very cautious when it comes to investing money in this format. If you enjoy it, and you have a good metagame scene to play in, great! Buy your playset and use it well. If you’re looking for specific price predictions, I think Tarmogoyf bottoms out at $100, Clique and Bob at $30, and Hierarch at $20.

The good news is that once this weekend passes, prices will tumble on almost all of the cards in Modern Masters 2015. There’s just going to be too many people looking to cash out their opened cards for these prices to hold in the short term.

The long term prices, I’ll leave that to more experienced Modern players to speculate on. I don’t expect the same boom in Modern players that happened two years ago, so I find it unlikely that prices all get back to where they were, but I’ve been surprised before by these things.

I am really interested in what Wizards does about the collation and card damage issues. Their first statement was “We have a great QA team and you must be buying cards from questionable sources.” The second statement was Tell us exactly what you got and where you got it from.” Twitter hasn’t yet reported on what (if anything) people are getting to make up for the damage or collation issues, but don’t be shocked if people get nothing. Wizards has been inconsistent in apologies and refunds from Magic Online’s long-known and well-documented problems, but maybe they will take this more seriously due to people paying $10 a pack to get SP or even MP cards.

This isn’t just about the packaging, either, not if there’s consistent collation errors and DISCARD cards inserted instead of foils. Wizards did multiple things differently with this set and they are turning out to be major mistakes.

So you need to be more patient with these cards, and start picking them up about the time Magic Origins comes out.


 

Safe For Now

By: Cliff Daigle

Right now, we know what’s in Modern Masters 2015. We know what the From the Vault set this summer will be. We know the story lines behind the summer and fall sets.

Recent history has taught us anything, it’s that anything not on the reserve list is fair game for reprints. Whether it’s Jace, the Mind Sculptor headlining a FTV, or Mother of Runes in a Duel Deck, the only guarantee we have is that everything will eventually be reprinted.

Today, I want to look at some popular casual cards, ones that I feel have a good chance of being printed in the not-too-distant future. These are mostly cards I am willing to trade for now, but I don’t want to keep forever. I think these will get printed again, but I don’t know when.

I am not going to try and speculate on what the prices will be, because I don’t know if they’ll be in a Commander deck, a big fall set, a judge foil, or anything. All I know is that these are popular and harder to find than I thought they would be, and might get reprinted soon.

 

Consecrated Sphinx

This price will probably go down when it gets banned in EDH. It is consistently on the list for cards that people complain about, because it is so incredibly overpowered. If Trade Secrets got banned because two players can work together to draw in credit cards, all it takes is this plus a Clone effect and you get the same outcome.

I doubt this will ever be printed in Standard. I suspect that Wizards is collaborating with the EDH Rules Committee, and figuring out whether the Sphinx should get printed again or if it’ll get banned.

Other Praetors

Elesh Norn is getting her third go-round, but the other four are all backbreaking in different ways. I am actively looking to pick up the others, especially in foil. It will be difficult to print the cycle again, so we would be looking at individual legends printed at semi-random times. Something along the lines of “Jin-Gitaxias in a blue Duel Deck.” I’m not saying it won’t happen, but I’m looking to pick them up now and be safe for at least a year.

Swords

Aside from Umezawa’s Jitte, these are the consensus first picks in any unpowered Cube. They go into any deck, have a laughably small mana investment, and have iconic art. I do not expect a judge foil printing for the other three Swords. Fire and Ice and Light and Shadow got that treatment because they were so scarce. That said, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if they did get printed in some way, just to increase the availability. It should also be mentioned that if they haven’t gotten a Tiny Leaders bump yet, they will.

Batterskull

It was the GP promo for some time and is one of the ten best Equipment ever. It sees more Legacy play than any other, except perhaps for Jitte. It has a mechanic that overcomes the primary drawback of Equipment. It’s really good!

It’s probably not going to be printed again soon, but I would be very wary of it. There are many Cubes out there that still want one, and it’s great in almost every EDH deck, so yeah, I’ll pick them up but I’ll also trade them away without hesitation.

 

Darksteel Plate

This is begging for a reprint. I would not trade for these unless I was building a new Commander deck and I didn’t have one to spare. This is amazing in Commander and nonexistent everywhere else. Swiftfoot Boots is our comparison, as it was trending upwards until being in every Commander product. Adding Plate to this winter’s offering wouldn’t be a surprise at all. Stay away!

Massacre Wurm

I’m adding this one because creatures-as-board-wipes is an occasional theme and if you have a few of these as long-term holds, I think you’re going to be disappointed. I wouldn’t be shocked if the relative lack of supply pushed this over $10 in the next twelve months, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it was in a Duel Deck and went down to $2-$3.

Green Sun’s Zenith

True Story: When this was in Standard, I traded for these all day and night at $5-$7. It seemed like the most amazing card ever, easier than Chord of Calling and something everyone would want. I was caught holding about ten when the ban hit in Modern, and I dumped them in sadness. They have crept back up into the $8 range, quietly, despite being in FTV: 20. This avoided being in the mono-green Commander deck this last winter, and so I’d feel okay about trading for these. It’s unlikely they will reprint a card too good for Modern, and the Legacy use is there.

Thrun, the Last Troll

I’m treating this guy like he’s radioactive. He’s so good at so many things, and he’s due to be reprinted, I feel. He’s a wonderful sideboard option in Modern, a silver bullet to deal with counter/sweeper/removal control decks. I’m not going to be surprised when he’s printed again and I’m not going to be caught holding any.

Wurmcoil Engine

I admit it, I don’t mind trading for Wurmcoils. They just got an infusion of supply in Commander 2014 and that should have them safe from reprints for a while. The card is silly good in any format, and sees light Eternal play in sideboards or some ramp strategies. I am on board for picking this up, as it’ll get back to $20 within a year just from the people who see how universally powerful it is.

 

Skithiryx, the Blight Dragon

Skittles here has tripled in price in the past three years, with the most recent increase being because it’s very nice with Scion of the Ur-Dragon. Infect damage gets past infinite life quite nicely, and granting haste and regeneration is quite handy too. This seems primed for a reprint, especially as everything with Infect dodged MM2015’s bullets and will probably show up in the next Duel Deck: Khans vs. New Phyrexia or some such.

Geth, Lord of the Vault

If you’ve never played with this in Commander or Cube, you’re missing out. It’s value town, and you want to be on this train. It’s got a surprisingly low price given the ability and the fact that he’s a Legendary Zombie. I don’t think it’ll get printed again too soon, but he’s powerful and easy to add to any black deck, making him easier to print.

Fauna Shaman

Survival of the Fittest is a reserved list card. (pick it up whenever you can!) Fauna Shaman is a toolbox enabler, a card that makes any Commander list sing. It’s approaching $10 despite being a mere rare, though a rare from 2010. This is a strong candidate to be printed soon, and might even be in Standard again before too long. It bears mentioning that this is an Elf, even if it doesn’t see play in Legacy lists.

 

Serra Ascendant

The wording on this is indicative of how it predates the explosion of EDH. Note the distinction from Chalice of Life’s wording to indicate the same thing…unless your starting life is 25 or 40. Serra Ascendant sees some play in Modern Soul Sisters lists, but it’s really going to shine in Commander. Despite the wording, I think it’ll be printed again and tank pretty badly in price. Keep the few you play and move the rest.

It That Betrays

If this dodges a reprint in Battle for Zendikar (and its expansion) then it’ll break $20. If it gets printed again this fall, it’ll drop to $5. It’s up to you. When the spoiler hits in fall, this is one of the cards to move on. If there’s new Eldrazi (very likely) then this gets better. It might see a bump in price due to all the Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple that are landing with MM2015.

Spawnsire of Ulamog

See above, only with less chance of a reprint. This is a silly, crazy ability lending itself to casual formats and not Constructed. I would agree if you wanted to get these now and hope, but having them be in a Commander precon wouldn’t be out of line at all.

Nirkana Revenant

This is a stay away for me. It’s a mana-doubler and it’s fantastic with Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. It would have been too good, that land and this creature in Standard. Don’t overlook tricks like tapping a Blood Crypt for red mana and adding an extra black. It’ll get printed again and the price will come way down. I always forget this was mythic, too.

 

Worldwake man lands

Mutavault just got finished teaching us how format-defining man lands can be. Granted, that’s possibly the best manland ever, but the extra cost on this cycle makes up for it. I would expect Wizards to do what they did with Elesh Norn and the Praetors, where Colonnade gets printed first and the rest will get there. It’s worth mentioning that Colonnade is by far the priciest despite having been the Buy-a-Box promo.

Bloodghast

I don’t know if they would do Landfall again, in the return to Zendikar, but if that mechanic is spoiled, you’ll need to get out of these in a hurry. There’s a good chance that it’ll be too good for Standard, especially when Exploit is in play. Thankfully, it won’t be an option to pair this with Satyr Wayfinder, but if Bloodghast isn’t in the Zendikar sets, then it’s still a prime target of reprints.

Eldrazi Monument

I fully expect this to be in the next Commander product. It’s really great with tokens and patience and kind of terrible in other circumstances. It’s a wonderful casual card and will be printed again before long.

Also: Iona in MM2015 leaves Avacyn and Linvala for FTV set


 

Watching the Sideboards

By: Cliff Daigle

In Magic, the sideboard is a powerful tool. It allows for flexibility and power in different types of matchups. It also offers the unparalleled chance to turn a bulk rare into a $10 card.

Today, I want to go over some cards that are seeing some sideboard play in Modern and Legacy. These mostly aren’t four-of, so people are often willing to spend a little more for the foil, resulting in some surprising splits. There is a chance that if a card proves to be popular/effective in a sideboard strategy, that it may go even bigger.

I’m focusing on the foils today, but you’re free to think about the non-foils as well.

Two examples I want to mention:

Teferi’s Response ($1/$16)

This is an excellent example, as the foil has tripled up after some on-camera time at SCG Opens earlier this year. It’s played infrequently, but it’s such a blowout against Wasteland and Rishadan Port strategies. Even as a singleton in Legacy sideboards, it being a rare in Invasion (imagine getting this in your Grand Prix Sealed pool!) is enough to push the foil to these levels.

 

Smash to Smithereens ($3/$17)

This is the downside of speculating. We live in an era when reprints are becoming more and more common, and this card is in the midst of losing value since being announced in Modern Masters 2015. It was more than $5 in February, and the foil has slipped a couple of dollars as well. I’ll be interested to see where the foils end up, as Modern Masters is going to add a significant supply of shiny cards. This was a common in Shadowmoor, but is an amazing sideboard card in Burn strategies.

Now, let’s look at some cards that have potential to grow:

 

 

Feed the Clan ($.21/$.66) and Rest for the Weary ($.26/$.76)

I can hear you from here. “Lifegain cards? What?” I understand that reaction, but hear me out. In a Burn deck, which is always an option in Legacy, gaining 8 or 10 life is worth two or three cards to the fireslinger. Rest for the Weary is probably more consistent, but being green and two more life might end up making Feed the Clan an option.

 

Timely Reinforcements ($.56/$8)

It’s already an $8 foil, it’s true, but this card is such a backbreaker against Burn or aggro strategies that I think it can go higher. Two cards’ worth of life and three blockers is a lot to get from three mana. It’s easy to cast in a lot of decks, which is a big point in its favor.

 

Kor Firewalker ($.60/$5/promo foil $3)

Speaking of a backbreaker, this is a very tough card for a Burn deck to deal with, and the only thing keeping this from seeing more play is the mana cost. Not many decks in either eternal format can come up with WW consistently on turn two. Amusingly, this card shows up in some sideboards of Boros Burn decks as a card for the mirror match!

 

Rending Volley ($.46/$6)

I’ve mentioned this card before, but the foil being at only $6 when it’s so good against so many things, and being so cheap to cast…it’s a perfect storm. About the only thing it can’t do is get past an active Mother of Runes. It takes out combo pieces of Splinter Twin, it takes out Angels, Delvers, Snapcasters…it’s a long list of things that players need to kill.

 

Valorous Stance ($2/$6)

This is a $2 uncommon because it’s such a good answer to everything. This will be a more expensive foil as eternal decks pick it up as a way to save any creature from just about all removal. Toxic Deluge gets by this, but almost no other sweepers do. It’s true this isn’t a good answer to Swords to Plowshares in Legacy or Path to Exile in Modern, but that’s why it’ll be a sideboard card, not maindeck.

 

Destructive Revelry ($.26/$2)

Burn decks are starting to go Naya, adding green for Atarka’s Command in the main and this in the board. It’s an alternative to Smash to Smithereens that can also hit Leyline of Sanctity or Eidolon of the Great Revel in the mirror. It’s a versatile card that has a very good chance to go up farther. If the foils fall in price at rotation, picking some up at $1 or $1.50 is quite reasonable.

 

Searing Blood ($1/$6)

Speaking of great sideboard Red cards, this is outstanding. It’s not as good as Searing Blaze, but it’s not far off. The more creatures that get played, the better this gets. The mana cost is an issue, but as a very popular sideboard option, this has potential to grow to $8 or $10. If it dips to $5 at rotation, don’t be afraid to pick some up.

 

Leyline of Punishment ($1/$3.50)

This is one of the few ways that a Burn deck can deal with Kor Firewalker, since the prevention aspect of protection from red is not relevant anymore. This also stops lifegain, the other monster under the bed that scares Burn decks. At four mana it’s no good for the deck, though, so it’s in the opening seven or bust for this card.

 

Electrickery ($.21/$2.70)

It’s a singleton or pair in Legacy sideboards, dealing a damage to Snapcaster, Pyromancer, tokens, all sorts of things. It hasn’t seen as much Modern play lately, but if Mentor or Pyromancer blows up again, this might be the sideboard option of choice. It also answers unenchanted Bogles and a Mongoose without Threshold.

 

Nature’s Claim ($.30/$5 CNS/$9 WWK)

The reprint in Conspiracy didn’t hurt much, but it does give competition. This would be a $15 foil otherwise. It’s cheap and very versatile, a great answer to all sorts of problems. This card helps illustrate why Swords is an excellent answer, because when you’re ahead, a little life for the opponent is no big deal.

 

Kolaghan’s Command ($2/$6.50)

You may laugh, but it’s showing up in Grixis Delver decks. Imagine killing their Snapcaster while getting yours back, and being able to cast it again. Killing artifacts is useful, and discard at instant speed is rarely a bad option to have. It’s not terribly powerful but it is very flexible at a low cost. If it gets popular the foils will really go up.

 

Virulent Plague ($.27/$1.47)

There are a lot of options for reducing creature sizes. Curse of Death’s Hold, Night of Souls’ Betrayal, Illness in the Ranks, and so on, but this one might be the best for hosing a lot of Zombie-based strategies as well. It’s not going to cut it against Elves in Legacy, but being an answer to Splinter Twin might cause these foils to enjoy a decent spike.

 

Golgari Charm ($.57/$7)

Another answer for token swarms, but with more flexibility, this has been featured a couple of times in Legacy events. It’s also a very good Cube card, and it seeing more Modern play with Abzan on the rise. There’s a good chance that this breaks $10 in foil by the end of the year.

 

Izzet Charm ($.66/$3/$2.50 FNM foil)

Again, this is a very versatile spell that fits in a number of situations as long as you can cast it. Dig for your combo pieces. Kill an early threat. Counter a problem. Cubes love this card as well, but the presence of an FNM promo will probably help keep the price at $5 or less. There’s a chance this becomes popular, though, and it’s worth thinking about.


 

The Floor on DTK

By: Cliff Daigle

I have a confession to make: I’m trading for Dragonlord Ojutai.

Not only am I trading for those, I’m giving up fetch lands and other long-term staples for them.

Why? I think that when Battle for Zendikar is out, demand is going to be even higher for Ojutai, Atarka, and likely Silumgar as well.

As for why I’m trading for in-print mythics that go for about $40, $19, and $16, well, hear me out.

I’ve said before that DTK cards have a unique situation, being two packs of a draft format when it’s a big set. I have written that Modern Masters 2015 is going to impact the supply of DTK opened. Magic Origins is going to eclipse it soon too.

We are going into a perfect storm of low supply and awesomely good cards.

To be clear, I don’t think every cards in Dragons has potential. I am especially leery of Dromoka’s Command, because I think that will get a ton worse without making someone sacrifice enchantment creatures like Courser of Kruphix. Hunt the Weak at instant speed for two mana is good, but it’s not $10 good.

What will be good in Standard when Theros is gone? Some form of blue-white control shell with three Ojutai. Perhaps Esper dragons stays on top with some Silumgar as well. Seems like a safe card to want, what with a new generation of Eldrazi on the horizon, begging to be stolen.

What’s impressed me is how good Atarka, Silumgar, and the why-the-heck-is-this-five-mana Ojutai are at, well, everything. Ojutai especially has been impressive, and it’s worth considering that even near $40, there’s room to grow…but with 20% of its growth having been in the past two weeks, I’m not sure how high it can or will go.

I think that players are always going to want to play a control deck with just a few creatures. I don’t know if losing Dissolve and all the extra Scry will decimate the deck or what.

I am convinced, though, that you should get your three copies now if you want to play with Ojutai.

What else from Dragons am I looking for?

 

Dragonlords Atarka and Silumgar

These are not four-of Dragons, mainly due to their cost. These are accessory Dragons, finishers, and their price reflects their less-used nature. They are better than Ojutai at affecting the board, but are more vulnerable to being killed immediately. I believe that removal which can deal with these is going to be at a premium. Valorous Stance does it, as do a couple of Charms, Hidden Dragonslayer, but with Hero’s Downfall leaving soon there’s not a lot of cheap ways to kill these Dragonlords.

 

Sidisi, Undead Vizier

I really like Sidisi as a spec target for the coming year. It’s a cheap cost, though no playable creature is as expendable as Satyr Wayfinder. The body you get, though, is tough to dance with even if the creature is vulnerable to Ultimate Price.

 

Thunderbreak Regent

As Guo pointed out earlier this week, the Game Day promo version is a hot commodity right now. It’s a 4/4 for 4, flying, that bolts the opponent killing it. This is a powerful and cheap creature, and any deck in Standard has to have a plan for seeing it on turn four or even three.

This IS a four-of, because it is disgusting in multiples. The price should remain stable while it’s in Standard, and has a good chance to go up in the coming months.

 

Foil Rending Volley

I said it a while ago: this is the Legacy and Modern sideboard card. The original is fifty cents and the foils are over $6. It’s so good at so many things, and it might even be a Standard sideboard answer for Ojutai. Get them while you can!

 

Deathmist Raptor

The way this combos with Den Protector is just filthy-rich in value. The endless looping of two Den Protector and the relative lack of graveyard hate make Raptor tough to deal with long-term. Both of these cards are growing in value as they fit together like peanut butter and jelly. Every Standard deck for the next 12 months has to have a plan for these cards, and playing the mirror can be the grindiest.

I think both of these cards will be even more expensive come the end of Magic Origins.

 

Monastery Mentor

While not in Dragons of Tarkir, this mythic has slid down to $16 as it’s been opened in one pack of drafts for the past six months or so. This is an easy pickup for gaining value, because it fits so nicely with Delver decks. I’m listening if you want to make the case of this vs. Young Pyromancer, but look at the Pyro’s foil price if you want to see its Legacy impact.

I like Mentor to break $25 before all is said and done.