By: Cliff Daigle

Aaron Forsythe, head of magic R&D, was on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast two weeks ago. Among the many things mentioned on that show was that sanctioned Modern events have tripled in one year.

Tripled.

There were three times as many of these events held and sanctioned, meaning that this format is not only accessible, it is popular, despite the financial barrier to entry that has occurred in the past year.

Shocklands pushing $100. Tarmogoyf going up despite being in Modern Masters. Spell Pierce being a $2 common. The list goes on.

Commander has seen a similar set of price trajectories in the past year, with a range of cards spiking due to Nekusar’s popularity and the release of a second set of Commander decks. Some of the format ‘staples’ are at high prices due solely to the appeal of this ‘casual’ format. 

In many ways, these two formats have allowed Magic to have a period of sustained and substantial growth. More and more people are not only taking up the game, they are finding the ways to play that appeal to them. EDH brought back stacks of players, and when we returned to the game, we found that our old cards were worth enough to pay for our re-entry into this game.

I’ve said before that I’ve done my fair share of selling out. I wanted the cash instead of the cards. I’m likely to do so again.

When it comes to the growth of Magic, I’ve come to the conclusion that for the most part, reprints are not going to affect the price for long. Wizards has demonstrated that they want to err on the side of underprinting, and in some cases, being in a major set has not affected the price for long. Thoughtseize is going to be an exception, but it would not be surprising if that card regained a price level of $40 within two years.

While I can’t think of another game that waited until years 16-20 to start such a period of growth, I feel pretty good about the next couple of years. I don’t know if the next large fall set (a revisitation of an old one, if the pattern holds. Dominiaria? Alara? Zendikar?) will be the best-selling set ever again, but I can say that it will be fun to introduce new players that way.

As for some specific cards, I’m quite surprised at Athreos’s current price. We’ve barely started events with Journey, and until we start getting more results, I’d be happy to trade these away at $25 or so. It’s cheap and capable of being powerful, but what creature in Standard are we recycling for value? Perhaps that will be answered soon.

Mana Confluence is slowly trending down. It’ll be present in greedy control decks for the next year, but probably at a 2-or-3-of. I’m really surprised that with some decks not running basics at all Burning Earth hasn’t had a chance to shine. I’d pick up any Confluences around $10, but it hasn’t gotten that low yet. I would absolutely trade for them at $40 in value, though.

Foil Kruphix, God of Horizons is around $25 and I would happily trade for them at that price. The casual appeal for that card is measured in megatons.

Finally, a word about the judge foils recently announced, including Force of Will: These include some very chase cards, and I’m least surprised by the old-frame Sword of Feast and Famine. You may expect Body and Mind and War and Peace to follow, as Wizards knows collectors love their cycles dearly.

I do not expect many of these foil Forces to make it far. They are going to be snapped up quickly, and I’ll be watching the effect on the non-foil Forces. Terese Nielsen has put some legendary alters of this card on the market for those who needed to make their nonfoils more unique, so there’s some collectors who might not care at all.

Will the market get flooded with nonfoils as people upgrade to foils? I don’t think so. I expect the nonfoil price to hold steady…with a good chance of it rising. Modern Masters taught us that when you bump the supply of a card, especially something that’s often a four-of, the demand can go up even more. We will have to wait and see.

I’d love to have one of the first judge foils, just to set the market on eBay!

By: Cliff Daigle

Journey into Nyx has given us some very interesting cards to use in casual formats. Some of them will be niche cards at best, but others are going to see a lot of casual play even if their price isn’t very high.

I’m going to rate these based on what I’d do if I opened these at a Release Event, with the set still new and prices high.

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

This cat does it all, unless you’re losing. His lack of board impact means NOTHING to the superfriends decks, the ones that play almost every Planeswalker and Doubling Season. (Except Tibalt. No one plays Tibalt.)

This Ajani not only completes the two-color combinations for Planeswalkers, he digs for those friends quite quickly. You’re going to sigh when he lands, because he’ll grab another annoying card almost immediately.

I don’t see this making a big splash in Cube, it’s a bit slow for that, but if you can get $25 in trade I’d make such a deal. A warning: as a mythic PW in a third set, he’s got a very real chance to spike hard during the next block. Better to take the sure thing, though.

Prophetic Flamespeaker

I admit I misread this card. I thought you’d be able to cast it without paying the mana cost. Instead, we get the pseudo-draw of Chandra, Pyromaster. In the next year, in Standard and in casual games, you’re going to have to correct someone how it works far more than you want to.

Even with that, it’s a card with both double strike and trample, a combination that has only been on Dragon Tyrant so far. (Someone forgot Greater Morphling. -ed.) Any equipment, any pump spell, and this guy is ready to set the world on fire.

Kruphix, God of Horizons

For all sorts of reasons, this is going to be a popular card in casual games. Fun color pair, enables big spells, no maximum hand size…and indestructible on top of that. At first I thought it was lame that the mana became colorless, but then I realized that if the mana kept its color, you’d need many colors of dice to keep track of what was still being saved.

Exiling enchantments has never been more necessary in EDH games, for this God and its kin.

Worst Fears

I understand why this needs to exile itself after use. I’ve seen Mindslaver/Academy Ruin locks and Wizards wanted to avoid adding another one of those. I do like the point-and-click nature of this spell: No warning, no chance to get Krosan Grip-ed before use…just take their turn. Done.

I think this is going to be the card that keeps its price higher than expected for a while, like Primeval Bounty in M14.

Dictate of Erebos

Grave Pact is a little rough on the mana with triple black, and others can see it coming. Giving it flash means that the surprise value is going to be very, very high. Having some iconic art (especially in foil!) doesn’t hurt at all. I don’t think this is going to be a Standard player, but it will be a mainstay of kitchen table Magic for quite some time.

What to Grab

I told you last week to trade everything you open, but at certain prices, there are things I’d try to trade for this week in the release event (All prices as of Wednesday):

Mana Confluence at $15 – I will be surprised if the big MC goes below $15 for its time in Standard. The foils are at an appropriately ridiculous price, indicating the appeal of this card in casual/pimp formats. I’d be happy to pick these up at $15 in value, because it won’t go below that for very long, if at all.

Temples at $6 – The two temples of Journey into Nyx are going to be the rarer ones, as I’ve covered before. I think $6 is a great price point for lands that I’ll be trading away at $10 in the middle of the next block.

What to Ship

Godsend at $13: While the effect is neat and there’s a chance of Legacy play in the True-Name Nemesis matchup, it’s just too much mana. More likely this settles in around $7 for the casual crowd.

Prophetic Flamespeaker at $10: While I think you’ll see a lot of this card, it won’t hold this price for long. A spike is possible, since it’s a mythic, but the safer play is to get out now. If it hits $15 in a year, oh well. Look at something like Deadbridge Chant to see the other path it could take.

Good luck at your events!

By: Cliff Daigle

I’ve told you to trade everything away at prereleases. Journey into Nyx is making me reconsider that advice.

Four times a year, I’ve had a simple mantra: trade everything you open at the prerelease. The reasoning is this: nothing is bulk yet. Everything has a higher value due to scarcity. Buylist prices are never higher, trade values are never greater. Nearly every card from the set will go down in price over the next three months, and it’s rare for a card to have a value higher than its preorder price during its run in Standard. 

Picking out the cards that will go up requires laser-like focus and a healthy amount of luck. I’ve never been that lucky, and I’ve made consistent gains in value just by trading things away before they’ve had a chance to tank.

However, as I’ve covered, things from Journey into Nyx are going to be rarer than cards from Theros and Born of the Gods. That scarcity is part of why I’ll be hesitant to trade some things away after my Prerelease is over, cards that will fall into three categories of hesitation.

#1: Keranos and Kruphix

Most of the mythics I’ll be happy to let go. Flamespeaker Prophet doesn’t actually cast the card, it just does the pseudo-draw that red has gotten lately. Godsend is interesting but not big long-term. The other mythics are not singing to me, and I’m especially eager to move the new Ajani before his price lowers.

I will be tempted to hold onto these two Gods, though. The other three are more likely to decline in price. I think that Keranos has a chance in Standard (Especially when paired with Thassa!) and Kruphix’s casual demand will keep the price high for a while. This is a long-term hold, until at least Halloween. That’s when I see Keranos’s value being highest, and I suspect Kruphix will just steadily increase over time.

#2: Foils

As a player who is mostly in Commander games, I see a lot of people who like to trade for that which is shiny. I’m one of those people who, when given the chance, will always try to trade for the foil ‘upgrade’ for a deck. With that in mind, I’ll be asking a real premium on foils I open at the prerelease. People who want shiny cards understand that it’s tough to give up those new and shiny cards.

Should I crack open a foil God, I’ll be keeping it for the long-term appeal. Eventually, I’ll find someone that’s been dying to have that foil and then I’ll be happy to let it go…for the right price.

#3: Temples

While there aren’t many Black/Green or Red/Blue decks running around at the moment, the fact remains that these temples will be the hardest to find for the next year and a half. We’ve seen three-color decks use the full twelve Temples because they are just that good! A free scry, even if attached to a enters-play-tapped land, is a powerful effect in any format, though it seems to be too slow for Modern or Legacy. I can vouch for their effectiveness in EDH!

Again, to repeat myself: I’m probably going to trade it all away. This is a guess about what I think will go up in value over the long term. I have had good luck with this mindset over the past few years. The scarcity and the power of these cards are making me question a few examples, but I know that even if I trade it all away, I’m possibly giving up some value if I need to get some of these back.

By: Cliff Daigle

Two months ago, I made a set of predictions about what the Gods of Journey into Nyx would do, and what cards might see a spike as a result.

The results are in, and I’m sad to say I was off in many ways.

We are still in the prerelease mode, and no actual Standard decks have been built yet. The spikes I predicted are still possible, but we’ll see about that over time. For now, I’m focusing on the cards that have gone up in the midst of the hype. As ever, that’s the best time to sell.

Iroas, God of Victory

What I predicted: It could cost four, and “that this God will grant a bonus to attacking creatures, a la Orcish Oriflamme”

Well, it is a bonus, just a different one. More tricky, less direct. But because it rewards attacking so directly, in two ways, it’s going to be the finisher in a Boros deck. This is prototypical aggro decks, in that you want to swarm the first few turns and never take your foot off the gas. When they have one, maybe two blockers, Iroas lands and messes up their plans.

What I thought would spike: Aurelia, the Warleader, Assemble the Legion
What did spike: Boros Reckoner

Assemble gets much less of a boost with the Goblin War Drums/Dolmen Gate combo than it would with a straight-up Orcish Oriflamme. It’ll be more of a standalone victory condition, and not need the God at all. Bad call on my part.

As for Aurelia, I’m going to hold out some hope that she gets a chance to shine in Standard. If not, she’s $5 while seeing no Constructed play. Picking up a few of her and waiting for a year will be decent value.

Long-term casual appeal: Iroas is going to fight with the other aggressive R/W legends to be our EDH generals and rightfully so. There will always be a home for four-mana, seven-power of indestructible Victory. Personally, I like Aurelia more but I’ll respect the choice. Regardless of Standard, I’d expect his long-term price to be around $10 ($25 foil).

Keranos, God of Storms

What I predicted: “I would really like to see something amazing, like having it deal damage to a creature or player.”

And what we got isn’t far off! It’s actually better than I guessed, since it will draw a land or get you three free damage. If it was triggered on each turn, for your first draw, then it could get out of hand, but as it is, it will be quite efffective. I’m pleased that my best-case scenario is so close. It can be inconsistent, but the prevalence of Scry allows for this to be as effective as desired.

What I thought would spike: Ral Zarek, Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius.
What did spike: Nothing yet. Ral Zarek’s minus ability works a lot like Keranos’s ability, and if you need to chain the two together for 6 damage, it’ll work well.

Long-term casual appeal: middling at best. Keranos is not a combo-enabler like Jhoira of the Ghitu or Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind. Being indestructible is nice, but the Bolt/draw a land requires library manipulation so you can get what you want. This price would be around $8/$20 long-term.

Kruphix, God of Horizons

What I predicted: “I devoutly hope Kruphix will do something with +1/+1 counters, like double the counters on target creature at the beginning of combat. It’s more likely to do something tricky, like tap or untap a permanent at the beginning of each upkeep something along those lines.”

Well, I was way off. I certainly did not expect an update on Omnath, Locus of Mana. While this God doesn’t use traditional Simic abilities, what it offers is quite unique. At first, I was dismissive if the card because it didn’t offer what I wanted it to have. I really wanted some great effect for my Experiment Kraj deck.

I’ve come around somewhat. This effect is unique, not suffering Omnath’s issue of being an easily-killed creature. Kruphix doesn’t get bigger based on mana, and stores it as colorless. You’re going to see a lot of casual Kruphix decks. Plan accordingly.

What I thought would spike: Prophet of Kruphix, Prime Speaker Zegana
What did spike: nothing yet

The God and the Prophet work disgustingly well together. In a four-player game, if you cast Prophet on turn five, Kruphix on opponent #1’s turn, store mana for two other turns, you’re throwing Genesis Wave for 13 on your turn 6. Or you’ll get really crazy with Hydra Broodmaster. The prices on my predictions have not gone up yet, but I think Prophet is a great pickup anyway.

Long-term casual appeal: high. I think this will never stay in your trade binder long. $10, and a premium up to $30 on the foils.

Athreos, God of Passage

What I predicted: “My prediction on this god’s ability is that it is a reprint of Sanguine Bond, only better in multiplayer.”

Instead of Sanguine Bond, we got a variation on Prince of Thralls. I like this effect in these colors, especially as Cartel Aristocrat is still around. I admire the subtle elegance of how Athreos defends your devotion, too: if your opponent does kill your creatures, life must be paid to keep it all from coming back.

What I thought would spike: Blood Baron of Vizkopa, Obzedat, Ghost Council
What did spike: nothing yet

There’s a good chance that this doesn’t cause many spikes. It’s cheaply costed and that allows it to slide right into some decks, without enabling a whole new archetype. It certainly does play well with the Ghost Council, though, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Athreos end up in some midrange decks.

Long-term casual appeal: Some but not strong. Orzhov doesn’t have all that many legends to choose from, and insurance against Wrath effects is nothing to overlook. Still, I’d be surprised if this was over $8 and $20.

Pharika, God of Affliction

What I predicted: “It’s likely that there will be interactions with the graveyard, my guess is that we will see something that brings back creatures from the graveyard to the hand.”

I’d felt pretty good about this prediction. 3BG for the ability ‘At the beginning of your upkeep, you may return target creature card from your graveyard to your hand’ seemed just right on a 6/5. If we can Lightning Bolt every turn with Keranos, we can’t get a Raise Dead each upkeep?

Well, apparently not. Instead, we get a symmetrical effect on a three-cost, 5/5 God. We’ve never had a graveyard-removal ability that gave a benefit to the owner of the exiled card, and we have Night Soil, Necrogenesis, and Cemetery Reaper as examples. In a word, Pharika is underwhelming.

What I thought would spike: Lotleth Troll, Vraska the Unseen
What did spike: Nothing, if ever

I can’t see this causing much of a spike. The ‘dredge’ deck in Standard will look into playing this card, mainly because that deck plays Jarad. But that deck can lay down an active Nemesis of Mortals on turn three, and Pharika lacks a lot of the synergies the deck requires.

Long-term casual appeal: Regrettably low. There are lots of graveyard-exile options that don’t reward your opponents with deathtouch tokens. Those will see more casual play. $5/$13 foil.

I think that these Gods, especially the final two, show the tradeoff you have to make when you lover the mana cost of a card. I’d be surprised if my version wasn’t in playtesting at one point, and then they tried lowering the mana cost…so they needed new abilities that were less powerful.

Still, most of these are awesome cards, and should be a lot of fun to play!