By: Cliff Daigle

Really, I should have known.

Oh, Wizards teased us and they did it well. A glimpse here, a tantalizing hint there, and then they let our imaginations do the work.

So the full Commander 2014 decks are now on sale, with the contents known to us all. I’m very sad that we didn’t get Iona or Avacyn or even Radiant, Archangel! We got a deck that is half casual Angels and half Equipment theme. I feel like this is a big miss.

Teferi made me think that we would be getting all colors of iconic characters from the past, but instead, we only got him and Freyalise. Perhaps there will be another chance in the future, but this is a missed opportunity.

I’m not saying that Avacyn, Angel of Hope and Iona, Shield of Emeria are safe long-term investments (foils are more likely to retain their value, but at this point, nothing is reprint-proof besides the Reserved List) but those will be harder to print going forward. Perhaps in Modern Masters 2? Conspiracy 2? A Duel Deck?

I want to look at a few more cards this week, but I’m not expecting anything major out of most of this release. Look at the prices for Commander 2011 and Commander 2013 to see how in the long-term, these prices are mostly going to stay low.

Looking at the C13 prices again, maybe Wizards didn’t want to tank the prices of these amazing Angels. I expect that C14 will be printed about as much as C13 was, perhaps a little less, depending on which cards are the high-demand Legacy cards.

Speaking of which…

Containment Priest – This is a remarkably effective card against Dredge strategies, Reanimation strategies, and especially Sneak and Show decks. It doesn’t work if they Show and Tell Omniscience into play, but the presence of this card might be very warping to the Legacy metagame. I expect this to increase in the near term (say $25, especially with the Legacy GP being so near) but settle quickly into the $10-$15 range.

My inclination is to say that this and Dualcaster are going to be the major Legacy players.

Malicious Affliction – It’s true that this is a bit difficult to cast at BB. However, it’s also the casting cost of Hymn to Tourach and that’s a card that sees some play. It won’t kill a Deathrite Shaman or a Tombstalker, but there’s tremendous upside against decks that are heavy on counterspells. You get the copy when you cast this spell, so they have to be able to counter both. On the downside, you’ll have to target both copies at the same creature if you’re concerned about counterspells. An interesting card that I think will end up around $3.

Song of the Dryads – I don’t see this getting much Legacy play. There’s cheaper ways to deal with creatures (Lignify, Swords to Plowshares) or lands (Phantasmal Terrain, Spreading Seas). It’s unlikely that this keeps much of a price.

Titania, Protector of Argoth – This has Legacy potential. I like the thought of playing her, getting a fetchland back, and cracking that land to gain a 5/3 creature for free. It’s for certain that she would be more feared in Modern, but costing five may price her out of Legacy.

I want to reiterate that this set is going to see some widespread printing. Wurmcoil Engine is down $5 since it was spoiled and it’s not done dropping. Goblin Welder has lost about 25% of its value. Thran Dynamo is down $3. There are going to be a lot of cards that take a hit and never get up again.

If you can get a deck or two today, and trade its components immediately, there is value to be had. There will not be value for long. Wizards is using this set, and others like it, to take cards that are fun from being rare (due to printing/age) to being common enough that anyone can get one with minimal expense.

Here’s an example: Adarkar Valkryie

Look at the drop last summer when it was in Modern Masters.

Have another one: Avenger of Zendikar

Commander 2013 was spoiled in mid-October, and the price was high for a couple of weeks, then began to fall. That’s the pattern I expect, and that’s the pattern you should be working from if you’re trying to extract value. Go ahead and try, but don’t build up a big inventory. Speed is going to be everything.

If you’re dying to grab a deck and try to trade/sell for the value, I don’t think that’s a winning play but the red deck has three big cards in it: Wurmcoil, Dualcaster, and Daretti. This does not bode well for the prices of the other cards in the red deck.

Personally, I’m going to sort through the new cards and slowly trade for what I want. I’m going to figure out what I would take out of decks first, because if I can’t decide what to cut, I’m not going to waste time and value trading for a card I won’t use.

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By: Cliff Daigle

UPDATE: Complete C14 decklists are here: http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/arcana/commander-2014-edition-decklists-2014-10-31

It’s here! It’s here! I’m terribly excited to say that a week from today, Commander 2014 is for sale.

These decks are going to retail for $35, and will likely sell out in the initial wave. These decks are mono-colored, and that makes three sets now in which Wizards hasn’t given us the four-color legends that Commander diehards have been waiting for.

Mono-color is a wrinkle, but there’s some bigger issues to talk about.

First of all, the Planeswalkers. Each deck has a Planeswalker commander. These cards explicitly say “This can be your Commander.” How long until that text is present on other cards? It’s design space that has been toyed with before casually. I’ve seen games played this way, and depending on the ‘walker used, it can be a big deal or not a big deal. Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker is not a big deal since it’s an 8-drop, Jace Beleren was pretty damn annoying over and over. I’ve also seen a Genju of the Realm deck, and that was actually pretty cool.

Lieutenant is a mechanic that I love love love love. I have decks that focus on the commander, and decks that sort of care, and decks which don’t need it at all.

Before I talk about specific cards, I want to reiterate some points about C14’s financial outlook:

1. The upper limit is about $40, barring something truly amazing. True-Name Nemesis is the outlier, and even its price has gotten to a reasonable level. There might be some cards that are crazy-hot immediately, and you should sell into that immediate hype.
2. The prices of all the C14 cards will drop over time. Wizards has no interest in having these boxes be hoarded and saved and chased. These are wide-release, casual-targeted printings and Wizards showed us last year that they will print more and more to meet need.
3. These five decks are being released during the time that holiday gifts are given. This is also taking place right before Fate Reforged. How many dollars can you spare for Magic?
4. I do not think that keeping sealed product is going to be a winning play. The 2011 Commander products had a much smaller print run and a smaller player base. It’s true that Heavenly Inferno sealed goes for four to five times its retail price, but the cards inside it are worth about half that…if you can find someone to give you full retail for Mana-Charged Dragon and its kin. If you’re looking for long-term (and in this case, several years!) investments, pick less-bulky singles over sealed boxes.
5. Here’s a dirty little secret: For a lot of people, buying the decks will not make sense. If you’re into building and rebuilding decks, then go ahead and buy the decks. But just as I did last year, I’m going to be selectively getting singles, either through purchase or trade. Keep in mind that only fifteen cards per deck are going to be new–everything else has been printed before.
6. Speaking of reprints: Expect that there will be some sort of foil promo of some of these cards within a year or two. Commander’s Arsenal was a one-time thing, they say, but FTV: Legends 2 is probably not far off, plus judge foils, plus special promos (Force of Will, judge lands, PTQ Liliana), etc. When those foils land, it will depress the price of the nonfoils.

With all these things in mind, let’s look at some of the spoiled cards. I’m going to make some predictions. Remember, nearly everything is going to go down in price, except for one or two that tick upward.

Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury – I love everything about this card. I love that it makes mana dorks. I love repeated Naturalize. I love an ultimate that just grants gas, especially now that you’ve made some green creatures that tap for mana! I also appreciate the subtlety of her starting at an odd loyalty and all of her abilities being even. She will always have a leftover point, or you can’t do her thing.

Initial: $20
February 1st: $15

Ob Nixilis of the Black Oath – Well, I thought this would be Leshrac, but here we are. The plus ability is great for reminding people that you need to die, and the minus helps you return such favors. The ultimate is interesting, but the card draw is far more relevant than the gained life. Remember that you’re unlikely to sacrifice the biggest creatures, you’re just attacking with them!

This is another odd-starting, abilities-are-all-even loyalty planeswalker.

Initial: $15
February 1st: $12

Teferi, Temporal Adept – The first card spoiled, people have had a long time to think about him in their decks. I doubt he’ll actually see much Legacy play, but most people with a ‘superfriends’ deck will want this. The issue for me is that with Teferi being the early spoiled card, it made us think we were getting lots of iconic characters from the past…and then we didn’t.

Initial: $10
February 1st: $10

Daretti, Scrap Savant – We get a goblin planeswalker, perfect for red’s subtheme of “I love to build and I love to break!” Sure, it’s Goblin Welder for free, but it’s really unexciting as a card. Nothing on this card gets you ahead, it’s all even exchanges.

Initial: $9
February 1st: $5

Nahiri, the Lithomancer – For me, this is the biggest miss of the set. This should be Serra. This should be an angel-oriented planeswalker like Nissa Revane is for the elves. I’m hoping they were just saving her for the next time they do this…in a few years. Alas. I honestly see Nahiri as an excellent tool in a Kemba, Kha Regent deck. As a commander, getting just one token a turn is kind of sad. An ultimate this this is awesome for the unique flavor, but I’m too hung up on what could have been.

Initial: $15
February 1st: $10

Jazal Goldmane – 4/4 first striker for 2WW is some outstanding base stats. The ‘attack with a bunch of creatures and pump them all up’ is awesome too, but it’s very much a ‘win more’ card.

Initial: $8
February 1st: $4

Gravesifter – While it’s fun to get a lot of creatures back, in most games, this isn’t going to do as much as you want.

Initial: $3
February 1st: $1

Dualcaster Mage – So far, this is my pick to be the riser, the Legacy breakout card. Key to this card is that it answers counterspells, as well as copying anything worth copying and leaving behind a 2/2 body. I can see this getting play in Delver decks as well as burn decks. Can you imagine this in Delver decks running Treasure Cruise? 1RRU: Draw six cards. Put a 2/2 into play. Another fun interaction is how you can copy their spell, let the copy resolve, and then counter the original. There’s a lot to do here, and I think the price will reflect it.

Inital: $20
February 1: $30

Myriad Landscape – A neat mana accelerator, built into your lands. Certainly an upgrade over Terminal Moraine.

Initial: $2
February 1: $1

Reef Worm – I don’t know how many of you played with Mitotic Slime way back in Magic 2011. It was fun to be so resistant to sweepers, and especially so with something like Parallel Lives or Doubling Season. This is just a fun design, and one that players will want.

Initial: $7
February 1: $5

Angelic Field Marshal – Love it lots, as a 5/5 vigilance flying when your commander is out. It’s a fun addition but it’s not going to break the format.

Initial: $5
February 1: $3

Feldon of the Third Path – The Brothers’ War is one of the best magic novels. You might also enjoy The Thran. It is a true delight to old people like me to see Feldon get his own card, and it is a very strong card. Reread the card–the creature you targeted does not get exiled. All that happens is that you can re-target it again. You can do this as an instant. Add some method of untapping if you want real shenanigans (Add Prophet of Kruphix in a Temur shell, perhaps) or whatever crazy combo you want. This is going to have some long-term growth potential.

Initial: $10
February 1: $7

Stitcher Geralf – Speaking of shenanigans, I love what this offers. Specifically, you can mill out Eldrazi or Blightsteel Colossus with this. Their abilities are triggered when they hit the graveyard, but Geralf’s ability has to finish before those triggers go on the stack. You will indeed be exiling their mega-threat and putting one into play of your own. Sneaky-good.

Initial: $8
February 1: $4

Ghoulcaller Gisa – I’m trying to decide if she’s good enough to go into my tribal Zombie deck. She’s flavorful, and powerful, and the ‘dark bride’ art is fantastic. I’ll likely add her to most Black decks.

Initial: $10
February 1: $8

More previews and more cards are being revealed daily. I’m going to stop here, and next week I’ll have some thoughts on the rest. See you then!

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By: Cliff Daigle

So when Magic 2015 was spoiled, I told you all some long–term price behaviors that I expected to see over time. A week after that, I checked in with those cards. With Khans having been out for a month and M15 being a format that almost no one is drafting, let’s see where these cards are at.

I like to check in with how those predictions are going, and evaluate what’s been good and bad. This is the process: No one is right 100% of the time, but there’s lessons to be learned from the successes and the failures.

Ajani Steadfast – I said to pick up at $5 or less, and he’s at $13 after a high of $20. He’s on the trajectory. I do like him as a casual pickup for the decks with lots of planeswalkers…once he gets to a low enough point. He has seen a little Standard play, and that might be enough to keep him near $10.

Garruk, Apex Predator – My goal is going to be to pick him up at $10, but he’s currently at $15. I think I’m going to revise this a bit: I like picking him up at $15, because he seems like something to evaluate in Abzan decks. He’ll never be a four-of, but showing up in a few sideboards might nudge his price back north of $20. If that happens, the spike might be big, because casual players have already taken a lot of these out of rotation.

Jace, the Living Guildpact – Sultai is not a popular enough clan to warrant playing him. His price looks like it will continue to drop, despite a ‘discard opponent’s hand while you draw seven’ ultimate. We’re seeing lots of Murderous Cut and Dig Through Time, but the one card is just too slow. I had higher hopes for him.

Liliana Vess – Current card seeing a little play, with lots and lots of printings behind her. I’d be surprised if she fell much further (She is a 1-2 of even when played) or rose much higher (There’s a ton of back product, all the way back to being a Lorwyn rare) so there’s little value to be gained here currently. Totally in line with expectations.

Nissa, Worldwaker – Well, I was wrong. Very wrong. I said “I do not expect big things out of her price” and it turns out she’s the heavy hitter of the set. She’s more than twice the price of her nearest competition! This is because she was the most popular upon release, combined with a never-very-large inventory. Her price is going to stay high for the duration of her time in Standard, because of the high initial price and the memory of that. I would be surprised if her price went below $25 before the end of next summer.

Perilous Vault – I said I’d like this card below $10, and here it is. It’s been all the way down to $4, before seeing play at the PT and the GP. I maintain that it is an excellent casual card, but seeing the level it can get to, I think I’m going to be very patient and wait till rotation, picking these up under $5.

Sliver Hivelord – I said it would get to about $7 as people got their single copy for Sliver EDH decks, and here we are at $7 and change. It had a chance to be a player in Standard over the summer, but with rotation, it’s a casual-only card and one that won’t go up for a while.

The Soul Cycle – Soul of New Phyrexia is indeed about double the others, and has gotten to half its previous price of $10. The benefit to this Soul is that it’ll go into any casual deck. I feel it’s even good enough for Cube, as untapping with it invalidates so many strategies! Soul of Innistrad has a chance to go up, as a millable source of card advantage, but the rest seem destined to fall to near-bulk prices.

The Chain Veil – I was too optimistic. I knew it wouldn’t be much, but while I said it would be closer to $4 than $10, I didn’t see it being a buck. Just too specialized. Notable, though, that the foils are all the way at $11, a classic indicator of a card’s casual appeal.

Ob Nixilis, Unshackled – I said it would never be more than a couple of dollars, and here it is at $1.50. I do have to report that it’s just as good in Commander as I had hoped!

Scuttling Doom Engine – This is interesting. It’s $4 despite getting no publicized play. Maybe it’s a big card in rogue brews. Maybe it’s an easy addition to all sorts of casual artifact decks. Maybe someone is stockpiling them in anticipation of the world figuring out that this was printed as the anti-Elspeth card. I thought it would be lower than it is, so I haven’t tried to trade for any yet.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth – It’s seeing professional-level play, so the power is there. The Abzan decks especially like it, allowing fetchlands and Temple of Plenty to tap for black. Not to be overlooked is the damage it saves from painlands as well. It’s going to hold at $5 for a while and start creeping upwards over time. I plan on trading for some of these and just setting them aside for a long while.

Waste Not – I told you to dump it at $7, saying it was a $2 card. I was dead on, as it’s at $2.32. It will take a powerhouse discard spell to bring it into Standard play, and if the card is good enough for Standard, it won’t need this to help it out.

Hushwing Gryff – It hasn’t really moved from being $3. Siege Rhino only sort of cares if someone played this against you on turn four. Satyr Wayfinder gets in play before the Gryff. There are some neat abilities to counter, but this is more a Commander card.

What was I most wrong about? Nissa. I underestimated her immediate effect on Standard. I overestimated the supply. She will be a somewhat-played card for her duration. Never too heavily, mind you, but she will show up. There is a case to be made that the more Siege Rhino is played, the worse a 4/4 trample land looks. Time will tell!

The other thing to note is that M15 has very low-value cards. It’s not as bad as Dragon’s Maze, with one big find and everything else just sort of there, but with only four cards over $10, one of the best values in M15 will be Stoke the Flames, a surprise uncommon. The lesson there is that four damage is good, especially when your creatures help you pay for it.

By: Cliff Daigle

I have two simple questions for you today: First, what is the monetary value of your collection?

We have a tool for this here at MTGPrice; if you’ve entered every card you own into our system you’ll have access to your collection’s value as it fluctuates, as well as telling you what you could get on buylists for your cards.

For me, the value is all in my EDH decks. I’ve added value to them pretty consistently over the past few years, and I’ve got more than one with a retail value of over a grand. You may think that’s bragging, you may think that’s underpricing it, but $10 here and $40 here adds up fast in a 100-card deck. Cubes are another item that holds a lot of value in a small space, especially if you’re someone who spent the money to foil it out.

If you haven’t done so before, take stock of your decks and your binders. Don’t forget about the large boxes of cards that you have somewhere, the bulk that may or may not be picked and sorted.

Depending on how long you’ve been at this, that value could be small, or it could be large, or it could be enough to pay the down payment on a house.

My second question to you: Are you prepared for something to happen to part or all of your collection?

I’m not trying to alarm you. I’m trying to give you an idea of how incredibly fragile these pieces of cardboard are, and how ridiculously simple it is to keep your investment safe.

Three years ago, I was at my old LGS. (Local Game Store) I was upstairs playing EDH as was my wont, when someone came into the store looking to sell some cards. The guy on duty for that was a local L1 judge, who noticed that the cards for sale made up a five-color Sliver deck, and the deck was fully outfitted with foils, duals, fetches, the works. Pretty pricey, even then, and exactly in line with a deck that a store regular had told everyone was stolen recently.

This judge contacted the police, who arrived quickly, and the regular was called in too. The store and the patrons were all paused in what they were doing, watching this unfold. We, the players in the audience, were salivating over the chance to see a card thief get their deserved punishment. The stolen deck was still sleeved in custom sleeves, and apparently there was a picture of the regular, holding up these sleeves. A slam-dunk!

An hour later, the alleged thief was walking out with the deck in hand. No charges, no problem, a simple “Don’t ever come back to this store” as the only punishment that could be given out.

Think about that for a moment. Think about being that guy, seeing your hard-earned and beloved deck in someone else’s hands, and you have no legal recourse.

Our delight in this game is based on mere pieces of paper. These do not bear any identifying marks; no serial numbers, no barcodes, no certificates or proof of anything. If you do decide to mark them, you’re going to depreciate the value considerably. Once your cards are out of your possession, you’re going to have a difficult time proving ownership.

Theft is a huge problem for our game. There are very few Magic players who haven’t experienced theft on some level. I’ve been through it on more than one occasion, once having someone dip a hand into my long deck box and grab a random handful, while my attention was on a game.

There are instances of cards being stolen out of backseats, out of trunks, out of storefronts, and out of binders. It’s a long-standing rule that you don’t let someone else look at your binder while you’re engaged in a trade, because there’s a chance of having a card dipped out of your pages. Letting someone take a look through your EDH deck carries the same risk. I sympathize, as I love showing my cards off, but it’s got the potential to lead to problems.

Don’t forget that other problems can lead to damage to your precious cardboard. Sunlight can melt a binder left in a car. Earthquakes can cause your neatly organized binders to fall out of the bookcase and onto the floor, bending or breaking your cards. Floods and fires can destroy your collection utterly, down to that box of basic lands.

So what’s a player to do? There are some very basic steps you can take.

#1: Renter’s Insurance

You’re required to carry auto insurance by law. Renter’s insurance is far cheaper and will probably get used less, but when you need it, you REALLY need it. Yes, it’s going to require some paperwork and organization, as well as regular updating (Did you just trade for a MP Beta Scrubland? Add it in!) but it’s worth every dollar and every hassle.

I don’t want to link specific companies, but start with your auto insurance company. Call them and ask if they offer renter’s insurance as well. It will not be expensive, unless you have a massively valuable inventory, in which case you really ought to insure it! If you’re willing to spend $100 on Ebay for a Japanese Foil Akroma, Angel of Wrath from Legions, then you should be willing to spend some money on the insurance.

I want you to seriously think about the value of your collection. If it is very valuable, then you should protect it. Only if you have very low value should you ignore insurance. Most of us will be under $200 a year, and you can think of that as a little more than a draft per month. Different companies will require different levels of paperwork, and your experiences may vary.

This is a simple, cheap, and effective way to protect yourself from any type of loss. When I realized what my decks were worth, I signed up for renter’s insurance. There’s a protection to all of your belongings, not just your cards. It’s not expensive, especially compared to the cost of repair or replacement.

Insuring my cards, as well as my belongings, gave me a strong sense of relief. It’ll make you feel good too.

#2: Basic Security

This weekend is Grand Prix Los Angeles. I am willing to bet a large amount of money that after the event, or even during the event, there will be a Reddit post or a tweet sent out or something where a Magic player is asking for help finding their stolen or lost deck/Cube/binder. It’s guaranteed and it’s mostly preventable.

Don’t have multiple trades going on. Don’t leave extra decks/cards on the table. Don’t leave your bag unattended, and when sitting, wrap your leg in the strap, so in case of someone trying to grab and run, they pull your leg. Don’t brag about stuff in your car. Don’t flash the bling left and right.

It’s helpful to have bracelets and tags to match up the owners of bags, but it’s a matter of seconds to take the cards out and then ownership is difficult to determine. Please don’t have these things happen to you, at GP LA or an SCG Open or anything. If you’re a dealer, have sufficient staff. If you’re not a dealer, don’t bring thousands of dollars of cards and leave it in your car, because cards have been stolen from targeted individuals.

#3: Advanced Technology

There are a number of things that are being sold or developed to deal with the security of your cards. DeckTracker is one, LassoTag is another, and they are designed to help keep things near to you.

This is handy, but not as effective as simple security. I’m pretty good with technology, but I can’t get my car to consistently pair via Bluetooth with my phone. I don’t know how effective these methods are, but they are a backup to the basic ideas.

#4: Community Help AFTER something happens

If, heaven forbid, your deck/cube/binder/bag is stolen, you have some last-minute options. Reddit often has those threads, or Facebook posts, or Twitter, or other social media tools. There’s a chance that you’ll get it back. There’s a chance that Wizards will send you some stuff to make up of some of your loss.

There’s a chance of all that. It’s not for sure.

I’m not trying to be an alarmist, but I am trying to worry you a little. You should be worried if you’re wearing thousand-dollar jewelry, and you would worry if you had $500 in $20 bills kept inside a little plastic box in your backpack and everyone around you knew you put it in there.

Be appropriately concerned, and protect yourself and your investment.

And have fun at that Grand Prix or FNM!