I know that in the current environment, it’s tough to keep track of everything that’s coming out. We’re bombarded every other week or so with previews, leaks, and spoilers, for Secret Lairs, Jumpstarts, Remastered sets, you name it.

Even so, it is my honor to report that there’s a relatively straightforward reprint set coming out January 13, 2023. It’s got some hot reprints, the mythics of which I covered last week, but today I want to break down your odds of pulling the cards you want most. 

So let’s get into the math of the thing, and that’ll allow us to figure out if we want to buy Collector Boosters or singles.

This is the breakdown of what’s in a Collector Booster, and as a result, we can see that all the value is concentrated in the slot with the traditional foil retro frame cards or borderless versions. Lots of sets have variations, but this one is just retro and borderless and that’s it.

Let’s lay out which are which, in terms of rarity and frame.

Every rare and mythic has a retro version, and 1/3 of the rares also have a borderless. For the mythics, all of them have both a borderless and a retro, except for Serra Avatar, Sneak Attack, and Kamahl, Fist of Krosa.

Given that Wizards is making it easier and easier to build an all-retro-frame Commander deck or Cube, I’m not shocked that there’s a lot more retro than borderless here.

Usually, Wizards collates things so that all copies of a card’s variants total the same amount. That does not appear to be the case this time. When looking over mass cracking data from vendor partners, the variant ratio on non-foil Retro to Borderless, for cards that have both does not look to be equal. Rather, the split seems to be closer to 2 Borderless for every 1 Retro version of a card like Sylvan Library that has both. This effectively means that mythics with both retro and borderless are twice as populous and that the variants don’t split the drop rate as we typically see in CBs.

For example, in the # of CBs one vendor opened, they pulled:

12 Retro Sylvan Library
23 Borderless Sylvan Library
12 Retro Sneak Attack

This suggests that there are actually 3x as many of the mythics and rares that have 2 variants vs. the ones that only have a retro version.

I suspect this is a goof, rather than a change in policy, but as we work with incomplete information, we will update accordingly.

As always, we’re operating on the basic premise that the ratios for cards are the same as a Draft Booster: 10 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare or a 50% chance of being a mythic. That’s a 10:3:1:0.5 ratio, but to make things easy, I double it to 20:6:2:1. Translated, for every mythic, there’s 20 copies of a common, there’s 6 uncommons, and two rares.

We’ve got 60 retro rares, 23 borderless rares, 20 retro mythics and 17 borderless mythics, all of which are guaranteed to be foil in this slot. One thing to remember is that the total number of copies is the same for each card at each rarity, even if there’s less version. For example, If this set puts 300 of each mythic out there, that means there’s 150 of the Borderless Foil Lyra Dawnbringer, 150 of the Retro Foil Lyra Dawnbringer, and 300 Retro Foil Sneak Attack.

So when we’re calculating drop rates in this slot, we need to be cognizant of the different versions available.  We also know from vendor experience that the cards with one variant frame are appearing around half as often as the cards with both.

I have changed the table to reflect this.

So with this trick of giving almost all the mythics a second frame, they halved the drop rate for each frame. It’s also a great way to keep the price high for the special versions of a card, even if the price for the regular frame drops precipitously. 

A drop rate of one every 280 packs for the rarest mythics is not far off from most of the other sets we’ve had recently, and this set is notably lacking in a subset or a super-mega-rare. There’s no serialized versions, no Lost Legends, no alt-art Japanese Mystical Archive. Let’s have a comparison with other recent sets:

Things being not-quite-as-rare to pull from packs doesn’t mean they will be common, though. Remember that this is a reprint set, in between two major releases. I am not expecting this to be a hugely opened set right away, but the initial burst of product, plus the trickle of remaining boxes to open, should keep prices down for a while. As I said last week, I’m not expecting to buy any spec copies for several months, but feel free to grab all the personal copies you want right away.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Dominaria Remastered is an interesting set. We’ve ridden the Remastered train before, last year with Time Spiral Remastered. This time, though, we’re not getting an extra sheet in Retro frame, but we’re getting Retro and/or Borderless versions of the rares and mythics in boosters. 

I’ll break down the exact odds next week, but for this week, I want to look at the mythics of the set, because the rares don’t have much value as it is and surely won’t for a while after this printing.

I’m including the EDHREC data because Commander is the format that drives most prices these days, but please remember that EDHREC data is skewed. It’s only the most online people who bother to list their deck, while a whole lot of people take inspiration from those lists but might not make purchases. Cards that were in preconstructed decks are also overrepresented, mainly from people who start with a precon and then do some form of upgrading.

Lyra Dawnbringer ($7 for the cheapest version, up to $30 for the most expensive, listed in 15,000 EDHREC decks as commander and card) – Amazing card, busted in Limited, but honestly Giada is a better Commander for Angels. I fully expect Lyra to be a buck or two for the cheapest, and given the play pattern, I don’t think I’d ever be buying copies.

Serra Avatar (under a dollar up to $80 for the Junior Super Series promo, 5700 decks) – It’s had a couple of strategic reprints, and the JSS has a very unique foiling to it. Bulk all the way, don’t look back.

Test of Endurance ($19 to $55, 4500 decks) – I’ve written before about reprint equity. Some cards are expensive because they have not had a reprint, they are pricey because of low supply, not high demand. Test of Endurance will not recover from this, it’ll get cheap and fall hard. If it was a Pioneer card, there might be a deck, but no, this will be very cheap and I’m never buying in.

Force of Will ($90 to $327, 103,000 decks) – Let’s have a graph and look at what happened to the EMA version when the Double Master reprint came along:

It fell about $50, down to $75, and recovered nicely. It’s already dipping down on news of this reprint, and this is a staple that absolutely can recover. Given the sheer range of premium versions out there (Judge foil, Invocation, Box Topper, Borderless, Retro) I think I’m more inclined to buy up basic versions that get to the $40-$50 range. 

Have another graph, that shows the foil from EMA, and recognize that you either buy the cheap ones low and wait for them to go up, or you go after a premium and cross your fingers:

Time Stretch ($22 to $110, 9100 decks) – This had one reprint since Odyssey, which was Tenth Edition. No new copies since 2007 but has a surprising amount of EDH decks. Most extra turns cards exile themselves now, but not this one, it’s too old for that tech. We’ve got a whole lot of spells-costing-less effects going around too, and so I’m feeling good about this. Keep in mind that this is a casual player’s dream, and a whole lot of opened copies are going to stay in decks. 

I think this price falls pretty hard, but I will be interested in any version that gets sufficiently cheap.

Urza, Lord High Artificer ($45 to $105, 23k total decks) – Yes, Urza LHA is getting a second Retro treatment since his introduction in Modern Horizons 1. It’s a deep dive to find all the cards that have been double-dipped that way, but let’s appreciate that the retro reprint in MH2 barely bumped the original:

This reprinting will dent his price, but that will simply present a buying opportunity. Again, I don’t want to have to pick between premium versions, and I’ll be content buying copies in the $10-$20 range.

No Mercy ($30 to $180, 11k decks) – Pure scarcity reprint, and not a card I’ll buy unless it gets crazy cheap.

Vampiric Tutor ($40 to $110, 195k decks) – The graph here is very relevant:

Put into EMA, the price recovered quickly and then Commander Legends came around, giving us Extended Art of this incredible art. I believe this will dip under $20, and when it hits bottom, I’ll be going after a few copies for the long term. 

Yawgmoth, Thran Physician ($35 to $270, 40k decks) – This is different from Urza, because this retro was in Time Spiral Remastered, and that’s a far lower number of copies going around. The demand is there, from Commander players and from combo players alike, so I’ll be patient for this to hit $10-$15 and then I’ll get in for some copies.

Last Chance ($21 to $40, 2300 decks) – Was in Lil ‘Giri drop from MTGVegas this summer, and dropped a lot since then. The card is one of many that does the same thing, and this will be the first time it’s gotten a significant reprinting. I expect this to drop a long way and very quickly.

Sneak Attack ($16 to $30, 20k decks) – Too many reprintings for this card, even if it’s a Cube staple. Another card where the value will dissipate quickly.

Worldgorger Dragon ($5 to $185, 9100 decks) – Yes, there’s an infinite combo with this card, and that’s been most of its appeal. It’s great in a Torpor Orb meme deck, and should they print a Commander with the Torpor Orb text then this will spike, but really, I’m staying away even though this borderless art is amazing.

Kamahl, Fist of Krosa ($4 to $80, 5k decks) – Sure, infinite mana get you infinite damage here, but Ezuri is 

Nut Collector ($8 to $85, 2700 decks) – Squirrels are a meme tribe, but this is a solid card in token decks. I expect this to be cheap, and when it’s super low in a few months, I’ll want to buy a few copies.

Sylvan Library ($40 to $200, 142k decks) – I think the best plan here is the regular versions when it’s down to $20, because it’ll recover. Too many people want this, because it’s really busted in Commander, and the price will be returning to its plateau.

Hunting Grounds ($14 to $45, 1600 decks) – While a neat card, this has a single printing and I’m expecting the bottom to fall out of this. It’s more work than you think to get seven cards in the yard, and in this color pair. Bulk or close to it.

Gauntlet of Power ($5 to $70 , 18k decks) – Decent card, will be bulk.

Legacy Weapon ($1 to $50, 2000 decks) – Already bulk, and not going to change.

Urza’s Incubator ($45 to $400, 36k decks) – I will be fascinated to see where this goes. Clearly the price is gonna drop off, but how far? Single-creature-type decks are more popular than ever, and this is a breathtaking card, even if it makes the spells cost less for your opponents too. Given that the only sweet version is the original foil, I’ll be hoping that the premium versions in DMR get to a cheap price, but I will be interest in any version once the prices settle in a few months.

Dark Depths ($15 to $200, 18k decks) – I’m staying away from this. It’s a combo card in Cube and Legacy, and has had enough reprints to keep the price stable. This printing should drive it under $5 and probably lower.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Wizards of the Coast has had two big products get ordered recently, and this is before we get into any new Superdrops. The 30th Anniversary Countdown (hereafter known as the Countdown) set was 30 known cards, each packaged singly, with a 30% chance of being foil. The 30th Anniversary packs (which I’m gonna call the Anniversary set) was basically a reprint of Beta packs, with a little bit of editing, twice the dual lands, and a retro frame slot.

The Countdown was sold for $150 each, where you knew the floor was 30 specific nonfoils. The Anniversary packs, where you could open a Lifelace and a retro Chaoslace or perhaps Mox Sapphire and retro Black Lotus, were sold for $1,000 as a set of four packs.

One of these sets sold out in an hour, and the other was pulled after 39 minutes of apparently very lackluster sales. The question is why, and it’s worth thinking about in the context of future purchases and special sets.

It’s a touch simplistic to presume that guaranteed value is the only reason that the Countdown sold out, but that is where we need to start this discussion. Anniversary packs at $250 are easily the most expensive packs ever sold by Wizards, even the VIP from the first Double Masters was under $100 at the time. People expect a lot of their packs these days, after years of Booster Fun treatments. 

More to the point, though, it’s a contrast between an expensive and potentially profitable lottery ticket and buying $7 for $5 worth of pennies. We knew from the outset what the cards were in the Countdown, including the art and frame variations. We could easily establish a baseline based on current prices, including the most expensive card, Chrome Mox. 

These copies from Eternal Masters were $90 around the time of the announcement, and have fallen to around $70, close to the price for the Countdown. We are at max supply for that copy, and while you can crack for singles and make around $30 all told, I’m being patient with my copies.

Chrome Mox was just the most expensive card in the Countdown set, but it gave us a floor. When the entire set was revealed, we could do the math and see how singles were a bit over $200 at the time, and figured it would drop some once it came out, which it has. 

Even better, because any card is 30% to be foil, the value has nowhere to go but up! There’s a decent chance that the average Countdown kit is worth *more* than its cost, even accounting for the race to the bottom. TCGPlayer is bearing this out, with sealed sets selling for $200. After taxes, fees, and shipping that’s not a lot of profit, so I’m being patient, as I said, but this is when supply is maxed. 

Contrast this with the Anniversary packs, and the enormous gap between what might get opened. I spoke of opening two Laces, or two Lotuses, and that’s a delta measured in several thousands of dollars. We clearly love gambling, as Magic players we’ve been conditioned to rip open packs and look for that sweet sweet value. 

We’ve always had the chance that packs will contain cards which will be worth a lot less, even plenty of Foil Extended Art mythics aren’t worth the cost of a Collector Booster. However, that’s opening a $25 pack, or opening a dozen from a $200 box of those. Wizards is asking those players to fork over a grand for the chance to open a piece of Power or a dual land, when those duals can be had in NM for a lot less than $1000!

Also, none of these are ‘real’. We’ve had this discussion all over the place, especially in the context of gold border cards being ‘legal’ for Commander play. As game pieces, these are too expensive for what they are doing.

However, in those 700 words, I didn’t mention the collectors at all. These duals, these new Power cards, they aren’t going to be mistaken as actual A/B/U cards. Instead, these are new collectibles, rare as hell. That’s a different animal entirely, and that’s what you have to look at for Wizards’ thinking behind ‘wtf did they think would happen’?

A majority of Magic players are collectors too. We want to collect sweet versions of cards and then play with them too. The value of the card, its collectibility, is validating to us, giving us a rush of dopamine when we gaze upon that backwards-printed Viscera Seer and realize that I have only one of a hundred of these in the entire world. 

Not only do we get that feeling of joy, of satisfaction, but we also get to show it off in some way, most likely in a Commander deck or a sweet Cube. We get to experience the unique sensation of displaying a rare and valuable collectible, and the recognition of others who know how rare a card that is. 

This is why the serialized cards are performing so well: We love this stuff, and sports card manufacturers have been blazing this trail for a long time. We’re going to see more super-expensive packs, but we aren’t going to see this enormous gulf in the $250 packs. We’ll see one-of Unlimited Lotus Replica in foil with a rainbow Richard Garfield signature, packaged with a sleeve and slabbed case. 

The Anniversary packs were apparently pulled after 39 minutes of underwhelming sales. The lows were too low on these packs for Magic collectors, but don’t forget that Magic collectors have had 30 years to get their actual Power and dual lands. There is value in having these collectibles, but the whales who would be the market here weren’t going after anything better, just different. 

Fundamentally, I think that was the error here. Wizards thought there was a market for expensive packs, and there is, but the ratios were off. I won’t be surprised when there’s an announced run of 200 packs, with a selection of limited cards, and the packs are $1000 each.

This run at higher-end collectibles missed, but having this happen in the midst of the very successful serialized cards demonstrates that the market is there. Get ready for more.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We are far enough into the set’s cycle that I can say this with confidence: It’s pretty amazing that we’re going to be able to buy so many awesome cards for some very cheap prices, and that they printed a set with two subsets: BRO, plus the BOT and BRR sets. Amazing stuff.

Right now, the serialized artifacts are taking all of the time and attention and money for this set. It’s understandable: there’s exactly 500 of each card, numbered and everything. It’s a gorgeous foiling, too, and we’ve even got crimped or other misprinted serialized cards running around! All the pieces are in place for the non-premium versions to tank pretty hard in the upcoming months. 

As such, I like to plan out my targets in advance for this sort of thing. I’m not buying now, and I’m not buying in three months. I’ve learned, and written about, the new timeline for cards being six months from release.

A note about the EDHREC rank: These rankings represent only the people maximally online and invested in uploading their decks. I haven’t put any of my decks up there, and there’s also a bias towards preconstructed decks. This is useful information, but it isn’t an all-knowing Oracle on the hill, nor a foolproof metric.

Swiftfoot Boots, Ashnod’s Altar, and Chromatic Lantern are by far the most popular cards here, but they will only be viable if the price drops to nearly bulk. Both of them have a lot of printings, and while the retro border is cool, this is absolutely a stay-away for me. 

Burnished Hart is in similar straits, but this at least is the only unique frame for the card. What’s warning me off is that there’s a Foil Extended Art from Commander Legends 1, when the FEAs were notably rarer, and that price is still super cheap. If you can get a lot of shiny versions for very very cheap, you might have a buylist play in the future, but I’m still not planning to buy.

Aetherflux Reservoir (current lowest priced version at $5, highest is $30, listed in 84,000 EDHREC decks) – Now here’s a card I can spec on. Foils for the retro and the schematic frame are $8 and $20, respectively, and that’s a big gap for cards that exist with the same drop rate. It’s got a pedigree, it’s a plan on its own in Commander, and it’s headed for its lowest price ever. I’m hopeful for foils in the $5 range in a few months, and that’s a lovely price for a mythic.

Altar of Dementia ($3 to $20, 64k decks) – There’s only two foils of this, one from Conspiracy and one from Modern Horizons, which you can see was released in June 2019:

We can see how cheap the card has been, and now we’re getting a whole lot more copies put into circulation. It’s a mythic now, not a rare, but that shouldn’t matter too much, given how frantically people are opening BRO Collector Boosters. I like this a lot long-term, and what I’m hoping for is that the foils (currently $5 and $13) keep tumbling lower. Even the Retro foil would be super attractive at $3, given that the other foils are over $11. I would also be interested in nonfoils if they got to the $1 range.

Mox Amber ($22 to $115, 58k decks) – You wouldn’t think that I’d be waiting on the big hit to come down, but I sure as heck am. The mad dash for serialized cards has Amber dropping from its all-time high:

And in fact, let’s zoom in on the recent part:

Yup, it’s fallen by half in the first month since its reveal and it’s definitely not done dropping. This is a marvelous candidate for buying something like 50 copies at ten bucks each around Easter. I can’t wait. The foils for the retro and schematic should get somewhat cheaper too, and will make the Dominaria foil prices look silly.

My only concern is that this card is an excellent candidate for Dominaria Remastered, and whatever special thing they have in mind for that set. Since that’s coming out in January, though, I’ll have enough time to make that decision.

Helm of the Host ($6 to $30, 57k decks) – I was surprised to see that this had only gotten a List reprint, but everything I said about Amber holds true here: It’s falling fast, it’ll fall for a while, and I won’t be shocked to see it in Dominaria Remastered. Once that hurdle is past, though, I’m really hoping that this ends up near one or two bucks a copy. Perfect buylist play once the retail gets to $5 again, and it undoubtedly will. This is one of the biggest equip costs commonly played in Commander, but there’s both ways around it and it’s always worth it anyway. There’s no special frame out there and not even a Secret Lair, so all the interest is going to go straight to these copies.

Ramos, Dragon Engine ($4 to $25, 13k decks total, 4k as Commander) – Finally, let’s discuss a card that has been looking for the right reprint home for some time. Wizards has done a lot to make Dragons a fun species to play, and five-color decks especially. There’s no shortage of ways to abuse this card, including ways to bounce and replay and break this ability right in half. Scrapbasket and Transguild Courier are cards I’ve seen do hilarious things. We can see the effect of all the recent Dragon goodness, as well as the effect of previewing the card, in the graph:

However, this card has been in tiny circulation for the longest time. It was a foil in the original Commander 2017 printing, and it was an Etched Foil for Commander Legends. That was it, till now. Its price was propped up by such small printings, and as such, I fully expect this to drop quite a ways…where I want to buy it up.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.