New set, same issues. They give us percentages and counts and then it’s up to us to figure things out for what exactly that means. Luckily, I’ve got years of practice in doing exactly that.

We’ve got a new type of booster to talk about, we’ve got The List, Special Guests, and more serialized cards! So many sweet things to talk about and hopefully make some great decisions that pay off nicely.

Play Boosters are here!

Reminder about The List and Special Guest: “Special Guests and The List cards can appear in non-foil in Play Boosters, while only Special Guests can appear in traditional foil in Collector Boosters.”

Here’s how the odds work: First, only 1 in 8 Play Boosters has any of these cards, and even if you get a booster with one of these, you don’t have equal chances at each. We are given the percentages, and the number of options, and then it’s just division (odds/# of cards) and then take the reciprocal for the number of packs required to open a specific card.

Price analysis: Holy hell, it’s going to take roughly 17.8 boxes to nab one copy of a Special Guest or a rare/mythic The List card. You will open one common/uncommon The List card every box (very likely, anyway) and even have a shot at two of them in your 36 packs, but goodness, the rares are rare indeed. 

For those who are worried about Special Guests being in large quantities, put those fears to bed. A playset of the new Crashing Footfalls (nonfoil) will require approximately 71 boxes of Play Boosters. (Want foils? I’ll explain the math in a moment, but it’ll be roughly 111 Collector Booster boxes!)

Sometimes the Collector Boosters have lots of things in lots of different slots, but this time, almost everything we care about is focused in the final slot of the pack:

Of note: the third from last slot, the one with all the Commander cards in Extended Art, will be almost completely nonfoil. Some sets, we get foil EA versions, but not this one. The only foils to be found in that slot will be Foil EA treatment versions of the eight mythics that are the commanders for the decks, and each one of those eight has a 1.06% chance to show up in foil. You have the same odds for nonfoil too.

So let’s have a table with the options for the last slot, of which there are many. The math plays out the same way: The percent chance of a card from a category, divided by the number of options, gives you the odds for a certain card. Then take the reciprocal to get the number of packs required to hit that specific card.

The City Frame and Dossier versions of the Guild Leaders add up to make them as common as any other mythic or rare. This is commonly done when there’s extra versions of a card that might cause a problem, because there would be that many more copies of that card out there.

From this list, we can see that the foil Special Guests are a difficult pull indeed. You’ll have the same tough odds for the Guild Leaders in mythic rare, either version. (Remember, together they add up to other mythics!) This tells me to keep an eye on these cards, but preordering them looks like more than I’d want to cough up. If the preorder is too high, then even with these odds, I’d need crazy growth to resell profitably.  The only one close to that is Ghostly Prison, whose preorder price is about the same as the Secret Lair version, making the margins too thin for my taste.

However, it’s worth noting that the foils and the nonfoils might be close in price. It takes 641 Play Boosters to snag a nonfoil Special Guest. The foils require 333 Collector Boosters. We aren’t given precise counts on either type of booster, but we should keep those relative counts in mind as the set goes on and the prices move. 

There are only 1,750 serialized cards out there from this set, 250 each of three mythic rares and four rares. All of them are guild leaders in the City frame: 

We’re told it’s less than 1% to pull any serialized card, so let’s have a table for what the options are.

Our estimate is that there’s between 2 million and 3.5 million Collector Boosters made for a set like this, based on figures for annual revenue and other such sets. So instead of saying ‘Less than 1%’ we’re estimating it to between 0.09% and 0.05%. This means you’re going to hit any serialized card every 1,150 packs to 2,000 packs, or if you prefer boxes, roughly every 96 to 167 boxes. If you want the odds for hitting a specific serialized card, you’re talking 8,000-14,000 packs to get that card, or 667-1167 boxes. 

Given those odds, I wouldn’t be shocked if the prices for these cards started out sky-high. There’s less of these than there were for the Elven Sol Ring, but the play pattern/collectibility for the cards couldn’t be more different. These are clearly meant for folks who want the serialized cards as the Commanders for their decks, and I suspect the first couple of these will sell for very high prices, but it should trickle down to something more reasonable over time. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

One of the side benefits of doing the math for every set that comes out is that when we know the drop rate and number of serialized cards, that gives us an upper limit to the number of Collector Booster packs out there.

And with that piece of information, plus the drop rates of the other cards, we can extrapolate a lot of useful, clear data. 

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

One of the things I try to keep an eye on is when we get cards that do something new. We’re getting a whole lot of Clue goodness and investigation, but one of the rares in Murders at Karlov Manor does something we really haven’t seen before:

This is Judith’s second card, the first being the Scourge Diva, definitely not someone to mess with. This time, she costs more mana but brings a truly gamebreaking set of abilities. Giving any instant or sorcery both deathtouch and lifelink is busted right in half, and whenever we get a new legendary creature like this, I think, “Would I build this deck? Would it be fun?”

My answer: Heck yes.

So today I want to go through a first pass of things that might take off if Judith gets her 15 minutes of fame. We’re going to have to be quick here: the set drops February 8, and the first decks should be getting built not long after. If she gets popular, it won’t last very long, and I’ll want to move these out quickly. I’m imaging that this will be a fad, not a long-term crazy popular Commander.

Let’s talk cards!

For each card, I’ve listed the current lowest price and the current highest price. 

First of all, there are around a dozen spells that cost from one to four mana that will deal one damage to each creature you don’t control, and I would start with every single one of those. Some are rares, like Impending Flux and might really take off. Most are commons and cheap, and it’s hard to predict which common foils could jump in price. I’m expecting small movements there, nothing huge, but I think we’ll see a lot of common foils go from ten cents to a dollar.

Disaster Radius (Bulk to 75¢) is another card with uneven applications. It’s tougher to use, given the mana cost and the creature requirement, but I’ve no doubt of its potential. Plus, it’s a single printing foil released in 2010. 

Volcanic Vision (Bulk to $2.50) – There’s not a lof of ‘get the instant or sorcery back’ in mono-red, but we get that regrowth effect on top of damaging everyone else’s stuff! Again, only one foil for the perfect card means there’s value to be gained.

Searing Touch (50¢) and Fanning the Flames (50¢) – These two are the star of the show. Buyback is exactly what Judith wants anyway, being able to recast spells over and over again. Slaughter and Evincar’s Justice, plus Lab Rats, should all bump a little but these two that deal damage are going to be tremendously flexible, dealing lifelink/deathtouch damage or giving you a 2/2 to go with the damage. 

Blasphemous Act ($2 to $22) and Chain Reaction (50¢ to $10) – Both of these will end up killing Judith because they damage all creatures, but since the spells gain lifelink, it’s reasonable to think that you’re going to gain a boatload of life as a result. Sometimes you need a grand finale, baby!

Chain Reaction has been printed a bunch of times, but its only foil is from Worldwake, a small set in 2011. The supply is miniscule and I won’t be shocked to see $20 or $25 for the foils. Blasphemous Act is a card with a boatload of printings, and the Secret Lair version is just awesome in the horror movie-esque frame. 

If you want to play more ‘damage all creature’ spells, you’ll need a little protection for Judith:

Mithril Coat ($9 to $60) – The fancy versions of this are under a lot of pressure, because the Coat is so so good at protecting any Commander who needs to stay in play. That’s most decks, so get your personal copies now.

Darksteel Plate ($7 to $14) and Hammer of Nazhan ($8 to $10) – Plate has seen a few printings, but these are close to the same card, and considering how much mana you need for Judith and how the deck needs her to be in play, a little insurance goes a long way.

Once you’ve gained a bunch of life, now what?

Well of Lost Dreams (50¢ to $120) – This is a great way to pay off the big lifegain into some extra cards, and we might even see some serialized cards get bought.

Aetherflux Reservoir ($10 to $300) – What to do when you’re at 94 life? FIRE THE SPACE LASER!!

Solphim, Mayhem Dominus ($10 to $32) – A lot of your spells will deal one damage, and while it doesn’t matter much if that’s got deathtouch, it’s also got lifelink. So you really want to gain that extra life and deal that extra damage to players. We’ve got a few ways to do that, and Solphim can get indestructible pretty easily here. Oil-Slick versions would be my first stop.

Torbran, Thane of Red Fell ($2 to $17) – If damage is good, more damage is better. We ought to see bumps in Fiery Emancipation and City on Fire as well.

Toralf, God of Fury ($3 to $6) – This will be terribly fun with spells that deal more than one damage.

Brash Taunter ($3 to $6) – I will enjoy ending a game with this card. Only one fancy foil version to target!

Stuffy Doll ($1 to $11) – The only problem here is, there’s more than one foil and so it’ll be hard to know which to target.

Fire Servant (50¢ to $8) – An uncommon from 14 years ago, there’s a deeper stock on the Premium Deck Series but those foils are kinda slick and ugly. I’m surprised that there’s never been additional copies printed.

Neheb, the Eternal ($7 to $32) – If you’ve dealt a lot of damage in the first main, would you like a boatload of mana in the second main?

Blood for the Blood God! ($3 to $8) – Surge foils from 40K are getting targeted intermittently, but really, there’s no card more perfect for this deck. Lots of things have to die, but you’re built to do that. Then this will dome your opponents and refill your hand.

I’m already at my word count, and over by a fair margin, so here’s a group of cards that reward you for making sure there’s no other creatures in play, or for doing lots of killing. I don’t think these are must-includes, but they are high on the list of cards I’d put into the first draft of the deck. We’ll see what EDHREC says in a few weeks.

Painful Quandary ($1 to $10)

Mogis, God of Slaughter ($7 to $18) – SL copies are likely the winner here

Kaervek the Merciless (bulk to $2.50) – foil-etched are your best bet

Tergrid, God of Fright ($7 to $14)

Kroxa, Titan of Death’s Hunger ($2 to $140)

Massacre Wurm ($2 to $14)

Crimson Honor Guard (under 25¢) – no foils available

If you build a Judith deck, reach out to me on Twitter or in the ProTrader Discord, let me know how it plays!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Sometimes, you just can’t help a title. Alliteration is just so much fun!

Ravnica Remastered is official today, and while the preordering has been fun, it’s also emblematic of the clobbering that prices are about to take. This is a reprint set, so everything exists already and the goal/expectation is that regular copies are going to end up notably cheaper than they were.

This reprint set is made up of lots of special versions too! Borderless, Anime, Retro-Frame, and even Serialized versions will be available too! In previous reprint sets like this, there tends to be a spread of prices for the different versions, with the more basic ones getting to a low price indeed.

The good news is, we can get those basic copies super cheap once these cards hit their lows. So today, I want to look at my favorite targets to drop low before reaching new highs in a few months. I don’t think the rebound will be faster than six months, and I also wouldn’t be shocked when it takes a couple of years.

These are mythics and rares, and as an additional complication, there might be a quick turnaround for profit on these if it looks like extra product is being destroyed rather than letting the set undersell.

Guardian Project (137k EDHREC decks)

As always, EDHREC is not the only data source we should refer to, but it’s very helpful data to have. It’s only the most online of Magic players, the most invested in the game, the ones who are eager to list a deck online. I still haven’t put even one on there. 

Still, Guardian Project is a card that basically cantrips every creature spell. There’s some spells like Garruk’s Uprising that will allow you to draw a card for big tokens, but GP giving you a card no matter what in the Commander format is big game. It’s a staple now and will be a staple going forward. 

It’s already down to the $8 range and $5 is in play. My usual habit is to wait a couple months, but this is one of the cards that I’ll be watching to see how cheap it is in a month, looking for the price to start rising.

Teferi, Time Raveler (46k decks)

Tef3ri (as he’s commonly labeled) was once a Modern staple, a key component to making sure that what you want to do, you get to do. Decks have moved away from the card, and being banned in Pioneer hasn’t helped his cause either.

Planeswalkers aren’t less good in Commander exactly, it’s just that you have to manage three people trying to kill it instead of just the one opponent. I would like to believe that he can make another comeback, but it’ll take a big shift in the metagame to pull that off. Those who like special versions have retro frames, stained glass, and the alternate anime art to choose from, so I don’t see myself getting in on this again unless some new combo shows up.

Bruvac the Grandiloquent (16k decks plus 3500 more as Commander)

Bruvac is about to be a case study in ‘why does low supply for a card result in a high price’ or what could also be called ‘how low can this go?’ Originally in the first Jumpstart set, and then given an appearance on The List, Bruvac has never had a large quantity of copies available, and the price shows that.

Copies are on TCG for preorder at $24 and that price is going to drop hard. Mill decks are neat in Commander, and even have a home in Modern for those who love their Crabs, but it’s hard to do consistently. The demand just isn’t there, and if it weren’t for some cards who were sub-$5 before RVR’s printing, I would expect this to be near the bottom. I suspect this will be available near $10 for a very long time.

Cyclonic Rift (registered in 500,000 EDHREC decks!!)

I probably don’t need to sell you on this card. It’s a poster child for a reason, the Gold-Chocobo-better-than-S-Rank staple. It’s cast, recast, copied, all in the name of being unfairly broken. Over the years, the regular version has made it to $40 at least once, because it’s just one of the best things you can do in blue.

Amazingly, we haven’t had a lot of special versions here. Double Masters had a borderless version in the VIP packs, and Commander Masters gave us a foil-etched a year ago. For one of the iconic spells of Magic’s premier format…that’s not a lot. Of course, now in RVR we get a Retro, and an Anime Borderless, and a serialized version if you want to have the rarest version of the most popular card.

I’m expecting regular copies to drift down a little, but the truth is, there’s a lot of regular copies out there and patience pays off very well. There won’t be a lot of undercutting, as you don’t need to be in a hurry to sell. This weathered the CMM printing quite well, the etched foils look especially tempting, and RVR should lower prices a little before they begin recovering. Should be $35 again before Christmas.

Crypt Ghast (84k decks) – Finally, let’s talk about a card that just doesn’t get played enough. So many decks are running Urborg and Coffers, why aren’t they using the third leg of the tripod? I think there’s some factors working against the card: people think Extort’s reminder text requires black and white in the identity, or they think only basic Swamps are eligible. 

Happily, neither of those things is true, but this card is falling fast. Retro copies are down to $5 already, and strangely, that’s less expensive than the regular nonfoils are. That’s a reversal I don’t expect to stay true for long, but I also thing it will take people a while to change their prices on the older versions of the card. 

There’s also never been a special printing, and with both a retro frame and an anime borderless coming out, these regulars are really going to take a dive. Be patient before buying, even when it comes to personal copies. There’s going to be a lot left over here, so don’t get in anytime soon.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.