All posts by Jason Alt

Jason is the hardest working MTG Finance writer in the business. With a column appearing on Coolstufff Inc. in addition to MTG Price, he is also a member of the Brainstorm Brewery finance podcast and a writer and administrator for EDHREC's content website. Follow him on twitter @JasonEAlt

My Masterpiece Masterpiece, Part 2

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Get it? Do you GET it? It’s Master P, the musical artist.  Puns have always been terrible, but something about combining them with mediocre photoshop makes them super endearing. I may be showing my age a bit here but late High School/ early College for me was Something Awful’s heyday and it was wall-to-wall posts like this. Anyone remember YTMND? Nobody? You guys are making me feel really old over here. That’s cool, Master P will still be my friend, and he can help us talk about bling.

This is the part of the article where I got the idea to pretend I was asking Master P about all of the prices then, literally less than a second later, abandoned the idea. I’m opting to structure this piece exactly like the first one, which I’m sure you read but in case you didn’t, there it is. The green part. You just click on the green text with your mouse. This green text, here I’ll do it again. Got it? If you haven’t read it, go read it. I had to re-read it myself because I figured out a lot about how these things are being priced and I forgot ALL OF IT in the last week. I could easily have written the second half last week and just released it this week, but I actually wanted to see if any of the prices changed in the intervening week and they didn’t. It makes sense – what impetus is there? These are so expensive that they’re unlikely to sell out. How ambitious is SCG that they would restock masterpieces if they sold out of them, anyway? “Oh snap, there goes another Sol Ring. Put us down for another 500 cases so we can make sure we get another Sol Ring to send to this dude” seems like an unlikely scenario, even for Star City. So I don’t expect prices to change too much, which is too bad since these were clearly all guesses. Educated guesses, but still guesses.

Speaking of educated guesses, but still guesses, let’s get into the second half of these Masterpieces, shall we?

Mana Crypt

manacrypt

Mana Crypt is getting its second reprinting in a short period of time and there are two groups of people – one group which I will call the 99% who are happy about this and another which I will call the 1% who bought an ugly, foil Mana Crypt from Eternal Masters and who have to be piiiiiiiissssed that this is a Masterpiece already. Personally, I am still a big fan of the original book promo, but then I remember I sold mine for $35 in 2006 and I get sad all over again.

The Eternal Masters foil is holding steady at $150, so $200 for the Masterpiece version which is better looking seems fine to me. I’m wondering which version will have more copies out there, though. A foil mythic from a small print-run set or a version where any masterpiece at all is only showing up once in 4 boxes but the set is printed at-will and will probably be the best-selling set of all time. I’m still inclined to say the Masterpieces will be much more rare, so $200 for Mana Crypt is probably just about right, at least for now. I could see it having a bit of upside, especially when Kaladesh is out of print, but not enough upside to want to drop $200 on it.

Ultimately, this seems like it will be the most expensive Masterpiece and with upward pressure on its price from underneath vis-a-vis the Eternal Masters version maintaining its price, it’s unlikely to drop in my view. I could be wrong, but I can’t really envision a scenario and support it with facts. Mana Crypt is an EDH and Vintage monster and if it isn’t banned in EDH, which I can’t see happening (not that I saw Prophet of Kruphix coming) it is likely to increase over time. Will they do Mana Crypt as a Masterpiece again? Hard to say, but it won’t be for years if they do and the meager supply seems unlikely to satisfy what will likely be pent-up demand. I realize I’m writing a lot about this card, but it kind of matters a lot and I’m glad I didn’t try to tackle this card last week at the end of the article when I was out of steam. It probably would have looked like this –

manacrypt

Wow, this is expensive.

OK, see you next week!

You guys deserve better than that. I mean, a little better than that, anyway.

Mana Vault

manavault

Mana Vault is played a lot more in EDH than Mana Crypt. And why not? It taps for all of the mana, you can leave it untapped and forget about it when you’re not using it and not have to take damage from it every turn, it’s like $10 from 4th Edition so you can actually have reasonable expectations of owning one- there are lots of reasons that more decks in EDH use Mana Vault than Crypt. Do I think that means the Vault has more upside than the Crypt? I actually don’t, really. I think the same people who can afford to but either will buy both and play with both. Lots of decks run Vault that don’t run Crypt, but the people who can afford Crypt will run both whereas the reverse isn’t true, necessarily. This means the people who can afford a $200 foil Mana Vault could afford a $70 Mana Crypt and therefore are likely running Crypt in their deck already. Will they buy a Masterpiece Vault but not a Crypt? I think the face that $10 versions of Vault means it’s accessible at the lower levels, but I don’t think we can say since there are more 4th Edition Vaults, more Masterpiece Vaults will be purchased and the price will diverge from Crypt. Also, we have no data on foil Vault so we’re guessing. If there were a foil Vault in Eternal Masters we could just compare those two prices and extrapolate. Well, we can’t do that. We’re forced to try and analyze the behavior of people who will pay $200 for a single card for a casual format (or Vintage, let’s be real, and there is nothing reasonable about Vintage). In the end, whether or not Vault or Crypt ends up worth more, I think it’s safe to say that we can extrapolate from the foil Eternal Masters price of Crypt that both of these cards are probably about the right price and if you don’t expect these to be $500 in a year the same way I don’t, I don’t think there is much urgency to buy in at $200. Watch the expeditions for what the Masterpieces are going to do a year later.

Mind’s Eye

mindseye

$50 seems to be the minimum price for these non-Gearhulk cards. I see a little downside here because this is a $15 set foil compared to a $20 set foil like Lantern. This is played less than Lantern although it’s an important piece in the decks where it’s good. I think this has some downside at $50 although not a ton.

Mox Opal

moxopal

I don’t know how to evaluate this card because it has practically 0 EDH demand. We’re banking on, what? People pimping out their Modern decks hardcore? This gets played in Vintage and maybe people with Japanese foil Mox Opal want this instead. I don’t think cards with 0 EDH appeal should sell for more than cards that are playable in Modern, Vintage AND EDH. This just got a Modern Masters reprinting and is down to like $50 in set foil, making me think $180 for the masterpiece is too ambitious. However, Expeditions have shown that cards that are almost exclusively played in Modern should maintain their price for a while.

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Painter’s Servant

paintersservant

I really can’t get behind paying $80 for a card that’s played in literally one deck and that one archetype is almost exclusively played in Legacy, a format everyone decided a year ago that we shouldn’t hold any events for. This is a $50 set foil but I don’t think that justifies the $

80 price tag, at all. I think a card needs to get played a ton and have some cross-format appeal and this is banned in EDH. I think this has some downside.

Rings of Brighthearth 

ringsofbrighthearth

The math on this card is all wrong. This is expensive because the Tiny Leaders speculation crowd bought the internet out of these because they’re so good in a pretend format people don’t play anymore. That’s what happens when you invent EDH for people who hate EDH. Now the price is all sticky, no one is in a hurry to dump a card that gets significant use in EDH (the real kind) so we’re stuck overpaying. I guess $50 is the minimum so this isn’t mispriced by Masterpiece standards, but it’s the $50 card I’m least impressed with.

Scroll Rack

scrollrack

This is a card that spiked because of anticipated demand in Miracles decks that never panned out and, like Rings, stayed high because a non-zero amount of EDH demand seemed to justify the cost. With only an ugly Commander’s Arsenal foil to try and guess this price from, SCG has priced this at $60. They reckon people will pay more for a foil Scroll Rack than a foil Lightning Greaves. I am actually not so sure, but I think some of these prices will fluctuate around $10 plus or minus, so even if they’re wrong, worst case scenario is this approaches the $50 we think it should be, now.

Sculpting Steel

sculptingsteel

My initial reaction at seeing this was chosen was to conclude that this had the most potential to lose money at $50 and a maybe that’s just because this has a $15 set foil and it’s the same price as cards with $30 set foils.

Sol Ring

solring

At $150, this price is high but maybe not high enough. This is probably this set’s Scalding Tarn and while other cards have higher foil prices, nothing matches the combined EDH and Vintage demand of this card. This is an absolute EDH staple so while theoretically only people with lots of money are going to upgrade to these and those people will theoretically also play Sword of Fire and Ice and Mana Crypt so in theory Sol Ring should scale with the rest of the Masterpieces, the fact is 99% of EDH decks run Sol Ring so this is likely the Masterpiece with the highest demand, even accounting for these being luxury goods. Tarn maintained $300, I see no reason this can’t maintain $150 or even head up, even in the short term.

Solemn Simulacrum

solemnsimulacrum

I don’t think $60 is correct. They did their best to extrapolate the price from its set foil price, which is a mistake. This has a lot of foil printings for people to choose from, meaning demand is satisfied to a greater degree than for other cards. I’d argue that there are more copies out there waiting to be upgraded. Along with Sol Ring, this is an EDH staple and I think this could have pre-sold for $80 and shipped out briskly. That said, I don’t expect the demand to be so high that it outpaces the other $60 cards and you’ll wish you bought in at this price, but Expeditions indicate prices won’t tank, at least in the next year.

Static Orb

staticorb

This shouldn’t be the same price as Chromatic Lantern. I think too many of these prices were extrapolated from set foil prices and not relative demand. If this maintains $50, I expect Lightning Greaves to take off and I doubt that will happen. Maybe what we have here is a non-zero amount of pent-up demand and enough people to buy these copies at their current price but not enough to buy them at a higher one. You have to really love your cube and hate your friends to pay $50 for this, I think. Of course the set foil is around what Chromatic Lantern is – this is a 7th edition foil. You could equate these two cards on that basis, or you could remember that a 7th foil Static Orb is worth that same as a 7th foil Storm Crow. This card is destined to under-perform financially.

Steel Overseer

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Pricing this at $70 seems to indicate SCG has more faith in the ability of Modern and Vintage to grow the price of cards than EDH. That’s probably true from their perspective since they sell a lot of cards at tournaments and therefore to tournament players. They also sell a lot of cards on their website where tournament players are reading tournament articles. We’ll see – Modern and Vintage made this a $50 set foil so they had no choice but to mark this higher than cards with $20 set foils. I bet this can maintain this price.

Sword of Feast and Famine

swordoffeastandfamine

I’m puzzled by this being pegged at over $100. This is a $50 set foil with a $55 judge promo foil. $120 for this seems reasonable since a 2x multiplier for a Masterpiece is reasonable, but they are charging $80 for a different card with a $50 set foil. I don’t know if this can maintain $120 based on that, but EDH helps with this more than it does with Steel Overseer, so there’s always a chance. I am still kind of skeptical that any of the swords can maintain this price tag.

Sword of Fire and Ice 

swordoffireandice

This card has an even more complicated history than Feast and Famine. The takeaway here is that they didn’t apply the standard 2x multiplier here because they want the same $150 for this that they’re charging for the Modern Masters foil. That was one of the iconic cards from Modern Masters, sure, but implying this will be the same price seems ballsy. One of the prices in this set is way off, but even using Expedition data I can’t for the life of me figure out which one.

Sword of Light and Shadow

swordoflightandshadow

At $120, this is probably in the same boat as Feast and Famine, although this is a little closer to Fire and Ice in terms of the impact of one new printing given this has been printed in foil more times than Feast and Famine. I have no idea if $120 is correct, but I can’t see any factor other than raw demand being powerful enough to move the needle on this price too much. No one will have enough of these for people to start undercutting each other on price so these prices are bound to be a little sticky, but eBay is going to really be the price to watch going forward.

This is a weird set. If Expeditions are to be believed, the prices will do a pretty good job of maintaining, almost irrespective of demand. I think it’s possible that the only thing that matters is whether there are enough people who will pay the prices on these and not the demand of the individual cards relative to each other. You set an initial price justified by historical prices of other foils of that same card rather than relative EDH or Vintage or Modern or Legacy demand and you bank on there being enough people who want to pay as much for one card as you’d pay for a full set of all of the 2016 precons to justify that price and price memory and an unwillingness to cut the price on a card you’ll likely only ever see one copy of just to ship it will prop the price up. Who knows? I am going to watch the prices of Expeditions to see what is likely to happen to the Inventions. Masterpieces every set? That could put a damper on people banking on scarcity since they’re going to have to resort to reprinting cards they have already reprinted soon enough. All I know is that this is a lot of guesswork on everyone’s part and the bottom line is that you should only buy these if you want them to play with until we have enough data to accurately predict how much you stand to gain or lose.

Next week we’ll talk about something I know a lot more about and we’ll all be happier for it. Until then!

My Masterpiece Masterpiece – Part 1

Welp, I’ve done it again. I’ve committed to doing an article that’s going to be a lot of work that I’m not even sure if I want to write anymore. Seriously, have you seen how many Masterpieces there are in this set? And I said I would write about all of them? What hubris. But that’s what I do, I overcommit and challenge myself not to underdeliver.

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You guys are worth it, though. You’re the best and savviest readers in the business because you know EDH is slow, forgiving, predictable and steady. It might not be as sexy as Pyromancer’s Goggles spiking overnight and everyone scrambling to place and order that’s going to be cancelled before everyone else does, but the sports car you buy with all of the money you make buying Squandered Resources for a quarter each will be.

Can we predict where the Masterpieces are likely to end up? Where they’ll start out? What this will do to the price of the set? We can sure try. Let’s get messy.

The Gearhulk cycle

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Star City wants $40 for these beasts, which may or may not be too much. I feel like this won’t get as much EDH play as they need to in order to sustain $40. With 2/3 of the Zendikar expeditions trending downward in price, EDH demand isn’t enough on some of these cards and I don’t think these will even have much EDH demand. Noxius and Torrential are obviously good, but good enough? I don’t see it. These are a sell at their current $40.

Aether Vial

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SCG wants $120 for this right off the bat, and I think that may be pretty close. There are 9 Zendikar Expeditions currently above $120 and half of them are trending upward in price right now. Of course the top 5 are all fetchlands used in multiple formats, which makes it tough to judge the price of Vial. However, Ancient Tomb is currently $120 and  I think Vial is a decent corrollary for Vial, actually. It’s used as a 4-of in the decks that use it and it’s used in multiple formats. I feel like Ancient Tomb gets used in a few more places than Vial, however. Vial has Darksteel foils, FTV foils, Modern Masters foils and now these. Is this Masterpiece far and away the sexiest? Yes, and people who want these will want 4. If you look at Ancient Tomb, the price has barely moved, but Ancient Tomb doesn’t have the Modern demand Vial does, leading me to believe Vial could have upside due to there being more demand for it than for Tomb. FTV Aether Vial costs 50% more than FTV Tomb, but those have wildly different availability, so that’s sort of meaningless as a metric. Ultimately, I don’t think Vial at $120 is correct based on how much more in-demand it will be than Ancient Tomb. I think this has upside.

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I hope the rest of these go quicker. I got cocky being able to do 5 at once and I just wrote half a book about one card.

Champion’s Helm

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and

Chromatic Lantern

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$50 for this is almost certainly incorrect for Helm. Scarcity has made Helm expensive – it is $2 more than Chromatic Lantern despite being in far fewer decks. However, I don’t think the prices will stay similar. There will be the same number of Expedition Champion’s Helms and Chromatic Lanterns with much greater demand for one than the other. I think the prices will diverge. We’re left to figure out which way prices will go. Considering a regular foil Lantern is already $20, I am inclined to say that $50 may be too cheap for Lantern. Mana Confluence is a $50 Expedition and that is down from $80 and has a $17 foil from the set. I think the starting point for the Expeditions may be misleading because a lot of those were pure guesswork and we have some more data this time. I think Lantern may have a bit of upside at $50, but, again, looking at Mana Confluence which has a very similar non-foil price, it may hover around $50 +/- $5 or so because while EDH demand for Lantern is very strong, it’s only the one format. I think Helm will tail down in price more than Lantern does. I have taken into account the fact that this is the only premium way to get Champion’s Helm and there are already foil Lanterns – I think the profound difference in demand within EDH more than accounts for that.

Chrome Mox

chromemox

Chrome Mox is an odd card. Banned in Modern, underutilized in Legacy, not a great deal in EDH, this card nonetheless is commanding $80 out of the gate. People who want one are likely to want 3 or 4 and that could be the factor that makes this sell higher than EDH staples that disappear one at a time. Chrome Mox is a $40 set foil despite also being printed as a $25 GP Promo.

It’s hard to find a corollary for this. Almost all of the expeditions lost at least 30% of their value over time due to the sheer amount of guessing that went into pricing them initially and the stickiness of prices on very rare, luxury cards. There won’t be a huge race to the bottom on any of these cards, so a lot of these prices may hold. The very highly-sought cards will have upside but the rest will likely tail off and I think this is likely to tail off a bit, or at least have a very difficult time growing in price. I don’t like this at $80.

Cloudstone Curio

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I’d stake quite a bit of money on this tanking. I wish I could short it, frankly. SCG wants $50 for this, which I don’t think it can sustain. Curio is used in a few goofy combo decks and basically just Animar in EDH (I mean, I use it in a lot of my decks but EDHREC data shows Animar uses it 6 times as often as the deck where it gets the second most use and it’s used about a tenth as much as Lantern) so you have to question where the demand is coming from. It basically isn’t, put simply. When Beck//Call was spoiled SCG bought the internet out of Cloudstone Curio banking on a UG elf deck emerging in Modern because Elves wasn’t quite getting there with Glimpse of Nature banned. The deck never materialized (I bet my money on Intruder Alarm and had even less luck). The price is sticky and that’s leading to an overevaluation of Curio in my view. I don’t think its current demand makes it a good candidate to be the same price as cards with more demand. This is a sell.

Crucible of Worlds

crucibleofworlds

At $150, this is one of the more pricey Masterpieces based on SCG preorder pricing. Wasteland Expedition is currently $150, down from an initial $300. Wasteland has 2 DCI rewards foil versions worth $250 so it seemed logical for Wasteland to start out at $250+. What do we have for Crucible? A $100 Judge foil and 2 set foils around $100 also. Wasteland fell below its judge foil versions, although those are quite scarce and the Crucible is much newer. I think this could be priced pretty accurately – I don’t expect this to fall below the set foil price by any means and since the judge foil is pegged at where the set foils are (which finally moved after I pointed out on Twitter that Strike Zone had non-foils for $10 cheaper than foils. Maybe not because I pointed it out, but after I pointed it out.) and the Masterpiece version is bound to be more. Yet it’s hard to see the version going up without demand that rivals or even exceeds something like Wasteland, which is played as a 4-of in a format where Crucible is a 1-of or Scalding Tarn which increased in price despite being pretty expensive to begin with as an expedition. I think $150 is pretty close.

Gauntlet of Power

gauntletofpower

Gauntlet of Power is a $30 set foil, which is more than Chromatic Lantern which makes sense considering how much more Return to Ravnica was printed than Time Spiral. There is not more demand for Gauntlet than there is for Lantern. If we don’t expect Lantern to grow much if at all, we can extrapolate that Gauntlet could have some downside at $50, though not much since it’s bound to go for more than the set foil.

Hangarback Walker

hangarbackwalker

This is $50 because none of the cards are cheaper than $50. This should be cheaper than $50. This is barely played in any format and this price is going to tank. If it holds it’s because every other Masterpiece doubled in price and this article becomes hilarious in hindsight because I got literally every call wrong. If that’s the case, are you going back through this article in the future after Chromatic Lantern is $300 to write a comment chewing me out for telling you it might not be a great buy at $50 and running across this paragraph? How meta for you. You’ll notice that even though I predicted getting everything wrong, which was write, I got every price wrong, including Hangarback Walker which, again, I think has a lot of downside.

Lightning Greaves 

lightninggreaves

This is probably underpriced. This is a $20 set foil as an uncommon. This is an absolute EDH staple and one of the few Masterpieces beyond Sol Ring for which that is true. If some of the other cards that are played way less often are $50, this has a decent chance of upside since there are so many decks this is waiting to go into compared to the other $50 cards and there will be one Lightning Greaves for every Champion’s Helm. This has real upside and I think if someone cracks this at the LGS and you can get it for $40 you will be happy later.

Lotus Petal

lotuspetal

Sure, this gets used as a 4-of and sure it gets used in Legacy and some in Vintage and those are pimp formats, but at $80 I think the demand for this card is overstated a bit. Legacy players aren’t the only ones who pimp their decks out. I think $80 is high. Then again, Breeding Pool is $80 right now and that started at $100.

I am at the halfway point of the list and if I keep going, this article is going to turn into a monstrosity. We have some time until Kaladesh comes out so I think I will write the rest of this up later and release it on Monday of next week. If some of the prices start to move, that will help us write the second half with more data and a better frame of reference. If anything I said in the first half pans out, even better. Thanks for reading Part 1 of my Masterpiece Masterpiece. Until next week!

 

 

 

Rashmi, Captain of Tides

It seems like every set gives me a card I’m so excited about I can’t even.

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The Gitrog Monster was a big deal because every set wasn’t supposed to get a amazing EDH card but now every set has one and it’s starting to get a little ridiculous. How many Sultai, Golgari and Simic generals can they force us to build? Why can’t they make a good Boros general that doesn’t force you to attack or durdle around with dwarves and cars and crap like that?

That was probably harsh – I have no idea whether Depala will be good or bad.

I am inclined to say this could be OK, especially since she triggers when she crews something and she’s big enough to crew Skysovereign on her own and Skysovereign is the only vehicle worth even pretending to care about at this point IMO.

Depala may seem durdly, but let’s not pretend people won’t build Dwarves and Cars as a deck in EDH as soon as the whole set is out. It doesn’t have to be good, you just have to come up with enough dwarves and cars to fill out a 99 card deck. I hate having to type cars, honestly. I hate that there are stupid cars in this set. I see people online calling Kaladesh their favorite set of all time. They’ve spoiled like 15 cards and 4 of them are cars. Here’s the crazy part – I like the Inventor’s Fair story a lot and I think it’s flavorful and cool and why not have one plane with advanced technology considering there are so many potential planes of existence, some that are only 100 or so years behind reality like in the case of Innistrad. I get all of that. Still, whenever I remember that there are cars driving around I’m like

Image result for y tho meme

Even though I was totally cool with the Weatherlight in 1996, I’m super upset about cars right now. Go figure.

I don’t like much stuff because it allows me to focus on the stuff I do like and I think I’ll do that for the rest of this article because there is stuff I like. That stuff includes a creature they spoiled around the same time as the durdly dwarf skypilot. Her name is Rashmi and she is going to spike prices like it’s a keyword ability. Behold.

BOOM. This is an elf because why not? This draws extra cards, cheats stuff into play and in general gives you a huge advantage. The ways you leverage this advantage are going to be factors moving forward. I think this creature is this set’s Leovold (already, right?) and the cards affected are myriad. Here’s what I see mattering.

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Interest in Scroll Rack has cooled off. It never really materialized as a Miracle enabler in Legacy (same as Personal Tutor, which fell off a cliff) but EDH demand and new scarcity meant the new price was pretty sticky. Scoll Rack’s Commander’s Arsenal printing didn’t really do much for the price or add that many copies. Scroll Rack is basically the best way to get advantage out of Rashmi, allowing you to put back stuff you drew and set up your free spells. I don’t know how much money you can make with a buy-in this high, but if you want these and have been waiting, I wouldn’t wait much longer. This commander is going to push this card up and that’s basically all there is to it. Remember Anvil of Bogaradan and Teferi’s Puzzle Box? There’s less money to be made here, but we are looking at a second spike and I keep telling you that matters. This card is going to move.

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Eternal Masters helped the price of top but I think this new demand is going to un-help. I expect top to be back where it was before Eternal Masters based on the new demand. Eternal Masters never really introduced enough copies to curb demand to begin with so the price was always going to go back up. Maybe top had some more declining to do. We’ll never know because Rashmi is likely to push it back up. Whatever it’s at now, like $20, that’s the floor. I don’t think it keep declining in the face of new demand. If it keeps declining, wait until it recovers to buy in, but I feel like this is a signal to watch the price very closely. Eternal Masters is basically forgotten at this point so new copies will be introduced very, very slowly and I think the market is going to soak them very quickly with extra demand left over to push prices. This is another card to watch closely.

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This narrowly avoided inclusion on the Reserved List so there’s technically nothing stopping them from reprinting this, beyond inclination. I think they are quite disinclined to reprint this and this plucky rare that was less splashy than Recycle and Sarcomancy back in the day has really come into its own and gotten there in price. I’m suggesting a lot of cards with $20+ buy-ins but I think this is the reality. Rashmi is going to disproportionately affect cards that synergize well with it and I’m going to mention those first. Are you interested in Guile? Grab one before they go up another $10 in the next year or two.

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Sometimes people are really bad at this. The goofy 93/94 format temporarily spiked the Legends version of this card and that triggered people who don’t pay attention to run out and buy the other versions. That price spike has gone away, but a recent spike will only bode well for another predicated on real demand. Every Rashmi deck will want a Library if the builder can afford it and I think real demand will have a more permanent effect on price than pretend demand based on not understanding why a certain printing was going up.

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This had to recover from its Commander 2013 reprinting sometime, so why not today? New demand is going to push this up from its current level. Check out buylist price creeping up at the edge of the graph, there. This card was poised to move regardless and this won’t hurt at all.

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This price is stupid and we all know it. It was bought out when Prophet of Kruphix was banned and some people are jamming it in that slot as if it isn’t less than half as good as Prophet. Unfortunately the price seems like it’s sticking and Rashmi certainly won’t help. I think we’re stuck with $20+ Muse.

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This price didn’t stick. People didn’t like Awakening in that slot quite as much as they liked Prophet. Unfortunately, that second spike could see up paying $6-$8 for Awakening forever. It’s not as good but people who build the deck won’t care.

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This is a card you might be able to make some money on. The ceiling is likely the $15 this card pretended it could sell for at one point. The steady increase in price as we pile on years between now and 2011 could make us money even if an increase in demand doesn’t, but I like my odds of beating this current price increase curve. Dealer interest is cooling off right now, but I don’t expect that to continue after Rashmi starts lighting people up.

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There is some money potentially to be found here. This is a great way to make sure you get something good with a Rashmi trigger. Just be sure this isn’t the first spell you cast that turn unless you’re trying to draw it.

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This is a great way to impart flash to your expensive creatures and get triggers on their turn. This spiked a long time ago because of that blue moon deck and has been flat since. New demand coupled with the copies being concentrated in the hands of dealers which is what so often happens when a card spikes out of nowhere and can’t sustain any of the demand that people pretended was there should see a pretty healthy climb if Rashmi is as popular as I imagine.

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Finally, a card you might be able to make some money off of. I think there are way too many copies of this card for the excess to be soaked up by some demand from Rashmi and that’s too bad because Yeva is a match made in heaven with Rashmi.

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The $2 foil has some more upside, though and I think dealers were already looking at increasing their holdings in it. I think there is probably a decent shot at some growth here although I’m not sure you’d want this to be the only foil in the deck. EDH demand for foils is a tricky thing to predict but this is promising.

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This is too recent and too underplayed elsewhere to really catch on but I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that this is amazing in a Rashmi deck.

I am sure this list is going to grow as more people start brewing with Rashmi. EDHREC isn’t populated right now because no one is really registering their decks on tappedout and the like, but when they do, we’ll have some analytical data to back up our picks with. As it is right now, I’m trying to cobble together a pick list based on a few scattered lists in discussion forums and it’s going… OK. In a few weeks we’ll know a lot more and the best part about EDH speculation is that we’ve got weeks. There are no weekend spikes, cancelled orders and there’s no need to be glued to coverage. We have time so let’s use it.

Kaladesh Spoiler Coverage

Can you believe it? It’s been like a week since they fully spoiled Conspiracy and already they’re inundating us with Kaladesh spoilers. Well, no rest for the weary. It’s time to see if we can’t figure out if some of these cards won’t be going for more money than they are pre-selling for if there is otherwise some money to be made, or at least not lost, for my readers.

9/16/16

The set is fully spoiled! Expect Commander 2016 spoiler season to start tomorrow. Either that or they’ll keep outsourcing their printing jobs to total scumbags and someone will post grainy cellphone pics of all 5 decks. Either way, keep your eyes glued to MTG Price for a financial review!

Deadlock Trap

deadlocktrap

Anyone who remembers Tumble Magnet is excited for this card. Unlike Tumble Magnet, you can find ways to add more energy and use this every turn, which will get annoying for sure. This costs 3 and comes down tapped which is probably necessary since you could use this to shut down their best creature or ‘walker indefinitely and that’s very strong. I expect this to see some play if a control deck materializes, which would make this a buck or two, though the ceiling is low because this won’t be a 4-of regardless.

Fateful Showdown

fatefulshowdown

Red decks often struggle with the question of what to do with excess land drawn late. This solves the problem quite nicely, doming the opponent and filling your hand up with gas. I don’t know that this is playable in Standard and it’s likely going to end up not seeing play. EDH doesn’t usually want a wheel effect that doesn’t force your opponents to draw and thus is good in Nekusar. This isn’t good enough for Legacy or Modern. Who wants this card? Likely nobody.

Sequestered Stash

sequesteredstash

I imagine this gets play in a lot of different formats. I don’t know if this is good enough for dredge, but this and Life from the Loam together seem potent. This will do work in a lot of graveyard-based EDH decks. This could potentially help you cut quickly to an important artifact. In short, this land is destined to be a few bucks, foils even more. This seems like a candidate for FNM foil if this is as impactful as it seems like it could be. I’m snagging all of these out of draft chaff and I’m gunning for cheap foils. This is a card.

Confiscation Coup

confiscationcoup

“Should we print Confiscate in this set?”

“It’s probably too slow for Standard.”

“What if we made it 5 mana?”

“Then you’d have to make it like, way worse.”

“What if we made it way, way worse?”

“Then you’d have to also make it a rare”

9/15/16

Restoration Gearsmith

restorationgearsmith

No, this is not a rare but this is bugnutty and if you like making money from EDH cards the way I do, snag a pile of these. You can probably get these for free out of draft chaff or trade a bulk rare for a playset. Foils will be initially cheap and expensive later. This is a card to watch.

“Master of Marionettes” 

masterofmarionettes

Fabricate 3

Whenever an artifact you control is put into a graveyard from the battlefield, target opponent loses life equal to Master of Marionettes power.

This seems silly. I don’t know if it’s too slow to impact Standard or not, but this will for sure murder people in EDH. Shattergang Brothers, Glissa, Sharuum – This will murder people. I don’t think it’s going to be worth above bulk for a while, though. I hate telling people not to bother buying cards I like, but that’s reality.

Insidious Will

insidiouswill

Wow. Again, I don’t know if Standard wants this (It very well might because there aren’t really many good counters right now, as clunky as it is to hold up 4 mana) but I know for sure EDH wants this. It’s 3 spells in one and the sheer flexibility makes it a shoo-in for a lot of decks. I don’t know if the price will be above bulk initially, but I expect this to impact EDH long-term. It takes a minute for those cards to go up, but that’s good since we want time to pick up a lot of them.

Spikey players are as unenthusiastic about this for Standard as I am.

Syndicate Trafficker

syndicatetrafficker

This is a pretty straightforward durdly card that I expect will be a bulk rare, but Spikey players are pretty excited about this, though their enthusiasm borders on the kind of “Magic Christmas land” scenarios that are the hallmark of /r/magictcg. This pairs well with Tireless Tracker, I guess. I think non-mythic rares will have to be pretty exceptional to stand out in this block and I don’t think this gets there.

Fumigate

fumigate

The lifegain clause may make this card comparable to Wrath of God because the lifegain could offset the extra turn you get beat in the dome by red creatures while you wait for 5 mana. This is certainly a contender for the coveted “5 mana wrath” EDH spot and could vie for inclusion with the 5 mana wrath they put in every block.

Then again, a 4-mana wrath wouldn’t necessarily be that good right now. It would get countered by Spell Queller, not affect vehicles, get Stymied by Mausoleum Wanderer or just get countered. Supreme Verdict was very fair. I don’t think we need a 5 mana wrath with upside, we need a 4 mana Wrath, maybe. I’m not sure this is what Standard players are clamoring for and it seems like there are more ways than ever to deal with this spell. Still, the lifegain makes this pretty saucy so as long as you have an alternate plan for spirits, this is likely a $3 or $4 Standard wrath.

9/14/16

Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter 

oviyapashirisagelifecrafter

It’s hard to imagine you want this to be your commander in a universe where Rhys, the Redeemed exists. Having access to white in a token deck is sort of a big deal. You probably jam this in the 99 of a lot of decks, though. I don’t think this can impact Standard or Modern but EDH is likely interested in some small capacity and a non-zero number of people will brew with this. I think the sheer number of cards that deal with tokens and counters means you take a look at Parallel Lives, Hardened Scales, Doubling Season and Primal Vigor. This is likely a bulk rare, likely with a high foil multiplier, and this likely moves a lot of cards, but not its own price. Cathar’s Crusade just got reprinted and is ready to rebound, also and this may remind some people to build Rhys.

Captured by the Consulate

capturedbytheconsulate

This is not a good card. The creature can still block and use its activated abilities making this pale in comparison to cards like Arrest. Also, them having to aim their removal at this creature is good unless that removal says “Target creature an opponent controls” or they just block with this and the creature dies. I don’t want to pay 4 mana for an Arrest. Standard might use this because better options don’t exist, but Standard doesn’t need removal like this, especially at 4 mana. I think this is a bulk rare.

Padeem, Consul of Innovation

padeemconsulofinnovation

This is ready to slot into a lot of EDH decks right now and start drawing you all of the cards. I don’t know if you want this as your Commander, but you probably want this in quite a few decks. That said, this would have to be exceptionally good to be worth money as a non-mythic in a set with masterpieces, so I’m inclined to call this a bulk rare which will have a high foil multiplier and maybe get there eventually.

Aethersquall Ancient

aethersquallancient

This is a Limited bomb that is probably too slow for Standard. I think EDH could use it but probably not and even if they did it would be in quantities too small to matter. It takes a lot for a rare not to be bulk, and being a maybe, sometimes 1-of won’t get there. Good card, though.

Metalwork Colossus 

metalworkcolossus

I have a feeling this can be a buck or two and I also think that this has a value beyond money. Casual players love cards like this. I’m talking extreme casuals. I used to go around to all of the cafeterias at local community colleges and trade with those players and they love cards like this. I never sit on big, durdly monsters long since they trade out so well. If this does end up bulk, grab a big old pile of them and go binder grinding. Other than that, if a dedicated build based on this card doesn’t emerge in some format, I think this is likely not that interesting to non-casual players.

9/13/16 Spoilers

Eliminate the Competition 

eliminatethecompetition

It’s cool, I don’t want to eliminate the competition THAT badly. Bulk.

Verdant Crescendo

verdantcrescendo

This card is only as good as Nissa, and then even if she is good, kind of a weird and clunky card to play. I really can’t see this being worth more than a buck or two unless Nissa is in every green deck and they all want to play a mana ramp spell at 4 mana. I wish this got any planeswalker named Nissa so it would be relevant outside of Standard. I can’t imagine I want to preorder this.

Liberating Combustion

liberatingcombustion

This is even worse. Dealing 5 to a creature is cool when you want that, but you rarely care about that as a red deck. Oh, and you can’t tutor for your Chandra unless there is a creature to target? Get out of here with this bulk rare.

“Consul’s Power”

consulspower

Enchantment
Creatures your opponents control enter the battlefield tapped.

Whenever a creature enters the battlefield under an opponents control, you gain 1 life.

This is pretty solid. It’s a punisher for a deck that doesn’t exist anymore, which feels bad, but it’s also a good way to slow them down and make sure your creatures are more likely to connect. I don’t think this will be worth much money for a while, but this does two things white wants to do and that makes it a pretty likely candidate for future sideboard consideration.

Bomat Courier

bomatcourier

This card is really bad. It’s a 1/1 with no evasion, you could just as easily strand your gas as you could cut to it faster and you have no idea if you even want the cards stranded outside the game. When is this good? When you’re a fast red deck who depletes its hand quickly and want to refill it with a card for each time you swung with a 1/1 that you hope stays alive. This card seems really bad to me. I’m calling this a bulk rare.

Scrapheap Scrounger

scrapheapscrounger

This is very good. Dredge has always been a good deck and this does the kind of thing you want to do in those decks – mill yourself with abandon and then get creatures out of your yard for free or cheap and attack with them. This is also a great card to recursively sacrifice to various effects and bring back. People are going to brew with this for sure. I think this will likely follow the price trajectory of Prized Amalgam, though – a good card that no one is quite sure what to do with outside of maybe one deck.

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Dovin Baan

dovinbaan

This card is very good. In fact, there is so much good in the set that I feel like any borderline playable bulk rare is getting smashed down to the level of true bulk just by virtue of box prices and redemption enforcing a total cost of the set that this set might exceed on merit. I think this is almost certainly not worth preordering for this reason. The total cost of a preordered set will exceed the cost of a full set at redemption which means a lot of cards will go down. Since a card or two will emerge as much better than we thought and the set value will go down, a lot of value has to get trimmed elsewhere, and bloated presale cards like planeswalkers tend to pay the price. Ray Perez is going to poop when he sees another sick Esper Planeswalker, especially one that shuts down the few creatures they manage to play through your wall of permission and removal.

9/10-9/12/16 Spoilers

Not much action over the weekend, but I like a few of these cards.

“Toolshaper Paradigm”

toolshaperparadigm

At the begining of your combat step, if you control an artifact “Toolshaper Paradigm” gains +2/+1 until end of turn. If you control at least 3 artifacts, it also gains first strike until end of turn.

This is pretty good at crewing stuff. Clearly you’re expected to serve with him or crew with him because leaving him untapped does little good – he’s a 1/1 on their turn. I think this can be aggressive and it kind of reminds me of Court Homonculus, but this is obviously better. I don’t think this is good in affinity or anything like that, but this could get above bulk and that’s nothing to sneeze at if you look at the small number of rares from Innistrad block which are above bulk.

Electrostatic Pummeler

electrostaticpummeler

When people heard there was going to be an artifact block, a lot of people on twitter touted Sigarda’s Aid, a card I called a long-term pickup. I said Kaladesh was unlikely to move the needle on Sigarda’s Aid at all. As the set gets spoiled, I was feeling good about the lack of equipment, at least until I saw this guy. 3 mana for a 1/1 that takes a lot of work to even make a 2/2 is absurd. Energy is harder to come by than mana (though you can bank it, unlike mana, I guess) so it’s weird that this isn’t more pushed than creatures with similar effects that were printed at common in the past. This feels like a common.

Combustible Gearhulk

combustiblegearhulk

I see a lot of people dumping on this card and a lot of people dumping on the people dumping on this card. I am in the “this card will underperform” camp, but if you pair this with Eldrazi Displacer, this may be the most brutal of all of the cards in the cycle. There is even a blink card in the set to give you the hint. 6 mana is maybe a little late to do anything in Standard, is my worry. Drawing cards or doming them when you’re on death’s door may not be good enough. I only avoid giving the same criticism to the green one because you are probably playing it before turn 6. The white and black ones keep you alive very well – 6 mana Elspeth was thought to be too slow for Standard until it proved how it wasn’t and the black and white one solve problems like she did. The blue one is played in blue and you can get back removal or just bask in the knowledge that you’re a blue deck and probably have the board clamped down. This one feels the least like it does what you need at the moment, and that’s not just because it’s a punisher card. If the decision is tough for them, you’re already in great shape. If it’s easy for them to decide, this won’t get you back in the game, I fear. This is a good effect but I feel like this card may not get there all the same.

9/9/16 Spoilers

“Dynavolt Tower”

dynavolttower

Whenever you cast an instant or sorcery spell, get EE (two energy counters).

T, Pay EEEEE: Dynavolt Tower deals 3 damage to target creature or player.

This seems pretty good, though maybe not for its intended purpose. I just see this as something that can bank you energy to use for other spells. I’m not thrilled with its second ability, forcing you to spend 5 energy to do 3 damage. That seems inefficient, although it is a way for burn decks to get extra reach and deal with crap like Forge-Tender and Firewalker. This seems like a bulk rare to me but we’ll see where SCG puts it.

“Night Owl”

nightowl

Enchantment
“Night Owl” enters the battlefield with 7 time counters.

At the beginning of your draw step, you draw additional one card, remove two time counters from “Night Owl.”

Your maximum hand size is equal to the number of time counters on “Night Owl.”

Whenever you discard a card, you lose 1 life.

Hey guys, we made a terrible Phyrexian Arena that hurts you, a lot.

This is a weird card and I am not sure what to make of it. Someone is probably going to make some weird combo deck with it, or just donate it to opponents once it’s got 4 or 5 counters missing. This can get you to hellbent, I guess. I don’t know what to make of this, exactly, but a lot of people online seem to be OK with the downside, which says a lot for how Standard is going right now. Don’t people already have like 4 different Sign in Blood variants they’re not playing?

Dubious Challenge

dubiouschallenge

People on reddit are calling this a “cheaper Tooth and Nail in a Roon deck” which makes me question whether they read the card. Sure, if you have Roon or Mistmeadow Witch or Eldrazi Displacer or Homeward Path, you get the creature back. You know, after your opponent gets whatever ETB effects are on the creature. You’re playing Roon, right? Then you have ETB effects. Oh, and you’re blind flipping and don’t get to pick the creatures like you do with Tooth and Nail. Oh, and you get the worse of the two creatures. Play Summoning Trap or something, this card is not what you want to be doing, and $1 is not what I want to be paying.

Smuggler’s Copter

smugglerscopter

A plane for smugglers even though it looks more like Slave One than it does the Millennium Falcon. Sometimes the best car is a plane, am I right, guys?

Real talk, this is actually a pretty good card. I might even see my way clear to playing this in Constructed Magic. A 3/3 looter for 2 mana seems like a mistake, even if you have to crew it. There are plenty of creatures you don’t always want to serve with and crewing this should be easy, especially with Servo creatures running around. I could see this seeing play. Could you? At $1.50 this is a relatively low-risk buy-in, but the upside is a bit limited given its non-Mythic status. I could see this hitting $4-$5.

Unlicensed Disintegration 

unlicenseddisintegration

This will see play and it will be worth a buck or two. Grab these out of chaff while you can.

9/8/16 Spoilers

Key to the City

keytothecity

The chatter I saw about this card on the EDH subreddit confused me. A lot of people were saying “If you want to loot, run Jace or Merfolk Looter and if you want to make a creature unblockable, run Rogue’s Passage.” Well, yeah. But now you can either run both or have both of those effects in one card. This is stupid in so many EDH decks. I love this effect a ton and I expect to see this see play, though not enough to make the non-foil creep up initially. As with a lot of obvious EDH picks, first we’ll see the foil price diverge and in a year or two the non-foil will catch up. Wait for these to hit bulk and then get them as throw-ins on trades. Get foils while they’re cheap if you can do it in trade, but I am not sure about cash for them as they may go down before they go up.

Angel of Invention

angelofinvention

Wowzers. This is either a nice imitation of a Baneslayer or it’s 6 power worth of beatface and a good commander of your army to boot. I don’t know why this is pre-selling for $5. Am I the worst evaluator of card prices in history? Does this not seem really amazing to anyone else? It’s mythic, it has lifelink, it’s an angel, it buffs everything else, it can make servos so it’s worth blinking to save it from death/get advantage… Someone tell me why this is $5. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

“Cultivator’s Caravan”

cultivatorscaravan

Artifact – Vehicle
T: Add one mana of any color to your mana pool.

Crew 3

This seems good in EDH. It’s a Manalith with upside and that makes it non-useless when drawn late. A lot of decks run 3 mana rocks with upside and this has the kind of upside some decks want, especially ones that don’t attack with their commander or some other utility creature that could crew this beast. I haven’t seen a price on this, but it’s too high unless it’s $0.99, so wait on these. I think I like this more as a player than financier, so it’s possible modest EDH demand won’t even put a dent in the supply.

“Wild Dreams”

wilddreams

Which decks want this? At X=1 it’s a bad Eternal Witness and at X=2 it’s Restock. This is worth playing over those cards when X=3 or more. Which decks want that? Isn’t being able to loop Eternal Witness better than getting one extra card for every two mana you spend and never using the card again? I don’t know that this will find a home which is a shame since it’s a powerful effect.

Kambal, Consul of Allocation

kambalconsulofallocation

This card is a trap. How good it is in EDH both as a commander and inclusion in the 99 makes it an obvious pick, right? Well, not exactly.

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Ayli is also a mere $3.50 in foil despite being one of the more popular EDH commanders. This card is stupid but it is going to go down before it goes up and you have the luxury of waiting on it unless you want it to play with right away, something I can’t fault you for.

Lost Legacy

lostlegacy

The comments on this card on Mythic Spoiler are really funny because no one read the card carefully enough to see that you only draw cards to replace the ones you were forced to discard, not the ones taken out of the library. No, this does not break Magic if you play it in Ripple Rats. Reading is tech.

Bulk rare.

Aether Hub

aetherhub

Suck it, Tendo Ice Bridge. You’re Tendo Ass Bridge, now.

Don’t buy these, get them for free laying on the table after people draft.

9/7/16 Spoilers

Paradoxical Outcome

paradoxicaloutcome

I have seen some chatter about this card being playable in decks like Vintage storm, which is probably true but not that relevant to its price. I can’t think of a format other than Vintage where you have enough permanents that you can bounce and replay profitably. This is certainly nuts in any deck that’s playing Retract since it refills your hand, so maybe Modern? Some sort of eggs deck where you don’t sac the eggs? I don’t know. I don’t predict enough adoption to get the price up on the non-foil, so we may see a crazy like 12x multiplier because pimp formats want this but no one else does. I am not excited.

Aetherflux Reservoir

aetherfluxreservoir

As if you needed another reason to hate Oloro players. There isn’t much to say about this card other than that it’s stupid, there are a dozen EDH decks it’s ready to slot into and we can guess its price trajectory fairly easily.

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Bristling Hydra

bristlinghydra

Does this seem really bad to anyone else? I realize a 5/4 for 4 that can get hexproof as a combat trick is probably fine for Standard and being able to use those 3 energy elsewhere is useful. I think my mind has warped too much toward EDH and wanting a Hydra to double every counter on every permanent otherwise I think it sucks. This is probably fine. I don’t know if it’s good enough to see play, but I think its stats are pretty good. I just wish you didn’t have to consume all of the energy it gives you in one shot.

Noxious Gearhulk

noxiousgearhulk1

This is likely too expensive for the formats where it’s going to have the biggest impact. If Standard slows enough, this could make it miserable to try and win with creatures, especially since I know everyone is going to say “pairing this with Eldrazi Displacer is too cute” and then Todd Andersen will do it on camera at the PT. I will say if this ends up a 2-of in a deck or two, this could be $15-$20, so we’re gambling. EDH demand won’t affect its price until it drops below its presale price, so the real question is whether to pre-order this and that’s only a yes if this will impact Standard. You may need to sleeve up a proxy deck, and try to race a deck with a bunch of burn spells and Lathnu Hellions. This is obviously stupid in EDH, but that’s a format where your first play of the game is a 6-drop, not a format where you’re at 4 life facing down 3 creatures on turn 5. At $6 pre-sale, I think you have as many chances to lose money as make it.

9/6/16 Spoilers

Lathnu Hellion

lathnuhellion

This is pretty good, actually. It seems a little durdly on first viewing, but this is a 4/4 haste for 3 mana. If you can manage to generate some energy, you can keep it around indefinitely, which makes this quite a bit better than your typical card people will want to compare to Ball Lightning. This is very aggressive and with all of the crap in this set costing 5 or 6 mana, this could be quite a clock. This is pre-selling for $1 and I’m over here remembering Hellrider. This is pre-selling for bulk which makes it low risk. I am going to trust the people I know who love red and say this could be underpriced.

Madcap Experiment

madcapexperiment

I only know two things. One is that this card sucks. The other is that someone is going to make me regret saying that. Seriously, though, this is a bad Shape Anew and Shape Anew is a bulk rare.

Animation Module

animationmodule

This is better than anyone thinks. Not only does this combo nicely with the other modules at uncommon, meaning there is a non-zero chance of assembling the combo or part of it in Limited (remember the throne, crown, scepter nonsense?) this is also bonkers in EDH. This gives you chumps when you place counters AND this can give a player or permanent ANY KIND OF COUNTER? You can proliferate poison, kill them with Goblin Bomb, add counters to Luminarch Ascension, Azor’s Elecutors or a Planeswalker? This card is stupid. $3 is probably too much since it won’t likely impact Standard, but $6 foils are a snap buy IMO. Then again, why not wait a bit? EDH demand is slow to kick in and maybe the price tanks and you scoop cheap foils later. People will sleep on this and I’m just waiting for it.

Torrential Gearhulk

torrentialgearhulk

At $6, SCG doesn’t have much faith in this card. It’s hard to judge whether only being able to play Instants is worth it. It’s hard to know if we’ll mostly be casting spells under 4 mana where this is worse than Snapcaster. It’s hard to know if the body will be relevant. So many unknowns here. I personally think this could be quite good but I also can’t name an Instant I particularly care about copying with this. $6 is right if this is in one deck as a 2-of. Do you think it will see more play than that? Buy. Less? Pass. That’s how I see it.

Nissa, Vital Force

nissavitalforce

This is even harder to evaluate than Chandra. I imagine this won’t sell out at $30, $35, $40, $40, $40 and finally go for $50 the way Chandra did, but I also think it’s quite good. You can ultimate it two turns after you play it and draw hella cards. You can also beat face with it. Getting back dead creatures is potent. It’s hard to say what Standard’s needs will be. This feels like an $18 Planeswalker to me. I have no idea how to back that up with numbers and if the rest of the set is good, it will be tough to maitain that, especially as nutty as Chandra is. Worse planeswalkers have been $20+ though, so I guess buy this if you want it to play with and you probably won’t lose a ton of money. I hope. I also don’t know what SCG is going to presell this for, yet, so I will come back and edit this when I do know.

9/5/16 Spoilers

Harnessed Lightning

This is pretty sweet. You can bank 3 energy from this, channel extra energy to deal extra damage meaning this can kill big creatures for 1R or you can just Lightning Strike something. That something has to be a creature, though. Lightning Strike hit faces and that mattered. I think this may be a bit overrated, but being able to kill a  or 2 toughness dude and bank energy could be a really clutch play soon, we don’t know. This could be one of those uncommons you pull out of chaff and end up making money off of.

Metallurgic Summons

Which deck wants this? Is it the Sharuum deck that is desperate to get back all of its instants? The Mizzix deck with its many artifacts? The Legacy storm deck replacing Past in Flames and playing eggs now? I don’t know who or what can play this. I can think of EDH decks that would be happy with either mode but I can’t think of a deck that can really benefit from both modes without being built around it. I can’t see a deck for this and that makes it hard to tell people they should buy it.

Chandra, Torch of Defiance

I am literally the worst at evaluating Planeswalkers. I never know how to do it. I am wrong an awful lot when it comes to Planeswalkers. That said, this looks an awful lot like a red Jace the Mind Sculptor. It’s a 4 drop with 4 abilities. The emblem is pretty stupid (though nowhere near as stupid as JTMS). It has a card advantage first ability. It has built-in removal (though at quite a steep cost). I don’t think this will get the play outside of Standard JTMS does, but I think this is very powerful and they let it get that way. This will likely presell for way too much and unless the rest of the set is trash, this probably can’t maintain its hype value and will sink. I am saying wait on this. I am also saying I’m trash at evaluating Planeswalkers. I don’t know man. This set has boats and cars and shit, I don’t know how anyone expects me to be in the right frame of mind to evaluate cards.

Aerial Responder

We’re about to learn a painful lesson titled “No, Vigilance really isn’t as good as Deathtouch”

Ceremonious Rejection

People are really excited for this because I guess they forgot Steel Sabotage was both a card and also unplayed. There is a decent-sized list of spells that this counters and Steel Sabotage does not (specifically in Modern which is basically the only place where this card might matter) and maybe that’s enough to have this see some play, but I’m doubtful. I like this and it’s good in Vintage potentially, but I don’t think it’s as splashy as people think. This stops Karn, Ugin, hard-cast Eldrazi (who’s doing that?) and a few other things and isn’t useless against Affinity but I think this is overrated.

“Cataclysmic Gearhulk”

Vigilance

When Cataclysmic Gearhulk enters the battlefield, each player chooses from among the non-land permanents he or she controls an artifact, a creature, an enchantment, and a planeswalker, then sacrifices the rest.

This isn’t Cataclysm. Cataclysm destroys lands, that’s why it’s broken. That said, there’s no reason this can’t terrorize people in EDH, especially paired with blink effects to keep them from accumulating anything but land. I think it’s too cute for Modern, not repeatable in Standard and too slow for Legacy. This is probably going to underperform. People sure do want to Displacer this in Standard, though.

Multiform Wonder

This seems like a build-a-budget-Baneslayer. If you can keep him fed, he’s a 5/1 flying lifelink and that’s pretty boss. Can you keep him fed? I think there are various ways to get energy counters, some of them harder than others and that’s a problem. It’s hard to evaluate this before we know whether energy counters are a big part of the set or a little one. This has potential, but it’s a lot of work for a Baneslayer.

See what reddit spikes are saying, which isn’t much.

Pia Nalaar

Ready to be sad? Look in her hand.

In fact, while we’re comparing this card to Pia and Kiran in terms of the art to see where those goggles came from, let’s compare the two cards to each other and be sad again. This is less than half as good as Pia and Kiran.

“Trinket Mastercraft”

Creature – Dwarf Artificer
Servo and thopter creatures you control get +1/+1.

3W: Create a 1/1 colorless Servo artifact creature token.

This is really slow, but maybe the rest of the block will be, too? I don’t know, I’m inclined to file this under “more cute than good” and leave it at that. This is certainly going to get out of hand if they don’t deal with it and you have a decent amount of mana, so it really remains to be seen whether the new Standard will be slow enough for you to overwhelm them with 2/2 servo creatures. Also, this is good in multiples which means you can load up on copies which may help its price. That said, a non-mythic rare needs to get quite a bit of play to get above a buck or two and I don’t think this has the goods. I sure like it, though. As a side note, it buffs all thopters which is relevant in EDH for sets going all the way back to Alara block.

9/3/16 Spoilers

There’s gold in them thar spoilers!

Fleetwheel Cruiser

I think that how stupid and ridiculous I think having cars in the set is going to make it tough for me to objectively review these. This is a 5/3 haste trample for 4 mana and can go in any deck. That seems good, although continuing to swing with it means you have to keep some stuff back to watch. This would have been good if Pain Seer were still around. I am not sure if this is going up based on a presale price of $3 (SCG left for the weekend so we’re stuck with eBay which is $12 for a playset of these across the board) but it could.

Skyship Stalker

This is pre-ordering for $2 just like the Roc. This feels less exciting to me despite having more abilities. Everyone is turning their nose up at Roc for being a 4 mana X/3 so I can’t imagine this won’t attract equal disdain. This is awkward to give haste to since that makes it a 5 mana 3/3. First Strike and Firebreathing could be relevant if they have big fliers later, but all in all this seems too slow for what red wants to do.

Cultivator of Blades

Fabricate means he can either come into play as a 3/3 or as a 1/1 with 2 1/1 servo tokens. The article announcing the mechanic wasn’t clear on whether you could make this a 2/2 with 1 servo token so I don’t know. I looked for a while then gave up. This feels clumsy and we have seen creatures like this in the past go nowhere price-wise. I am not excited for this, especially pre-selling at $2.50. If we get some ways to buff his power easily and we get some token producers, though, this could deal Craterhoof amounts of damage, albeit not out of nowhere like with Craterhoof.

Verdurous Gearhulk

This is good. This can make itself an 8/8 Trample for 5. This can buff a ton of tokens. This can permanently Wolfir Silverheart something else. If you get something for having +1/+1 counters on a creature this can grant that up to 4 times. All in all I am pretty excited for how simple but pushed this is. This is a $12 preorder and that feels about right. It could get a bit above that if it really catches on, and a LOT about that if it REALLY catches on. This has the capacity to his $25 if there isn’t much help from the rest of the set. I can’t call it yet since I’d need to see the rest of the set, but I feel like there are more scenarios where you lose money or break even than when you double up on this card. I’m hesitant.

Filigree Familiar

 

When Filigree Familiar enters the battlefield, you gain 2 life.

When Filigree Familiar dies, draw a card.

This is very good and I think this may be underappreciated at first. Foils of this are a buy if they are below a 5X multiplier, which seems iffy. Pull these out of draft chaff and stick them in a box. If these aren’t a $4 Standard uncommon they will get near that high in time unless they’re reprinted aggressively.

“Territorial Devourer”

Trample

Whenever you gain one or more E (one energy counter), Territorial Devourer gets +2/+2 until end of turn.

I have no idea how good this is going to be, but I am inclined to say this could be better than prowess in some decks. I have to imagine red is going to have a creature that gives you an energy counter whenever you play an instant or sorcery, there is one that triggers off of landfall, there is one that triggers off a creature dying, etc. If we get a card that gives you an energy counter when a creature attacks, this could be potent. If not, this is clunky and overcosted. I think this will probably be bad, but how can I really evaluate it before we see all of the energy counter stuff we’re getting?

“Demon of Shady Schemes”

Flying

When Demon of Shady Schemes enters the battlefield, all other creatures get -2/-2 until the end of turn.

Whenever another creature dies, gain E (one energy counter).

2B, pay EEEE: Put target creature card from a graveyard onto the battlefiend tapped under your control.

So Massacre Wurm is back, it flies and it gives you energy counters. The reanimator ability is going to be ridiculous late in the game and you will not lose wars of attrition with this out. This is a finisher that brings back dead finishers, ruins combat for them or wipes their board and beats for 5. This is a $10 preorder and I think if it’s played as a 2-of in a deck or two that’s right on the money. I love this card but I don’t know there are scenarios where you wish you’d bought several playsets at $40 a set. This does have juice longterm, though.

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Ghirapur Orrery

NEKUSAR!

I think this card is a little too symmetrical to be able to take advantage of how good it is for Standard. Forcing them to draw if you made them discard their hand, though? There are a few EDH decks where you can take advantage of this. Also, you can jam this in Leovold and draw 3 while they draw 1.  Being able to ramp your land out faster is a nice bonus. All in all this is to suspiciously good to ignore and I feel like EDH will unlock its full potential, meaning it will be cheap while Standard players discard it as a bulk rare and let the rest of us sock these away in a box. I thought that about Pyromancer’s Goggles, though, didn’t I? Sometimes a card is so powerful even Standard can’t ignore it. This is preordering for $6 and I have to imagine it drops.

Panharmonicon

This is even better in EDH than Orrery but I feel like it’s so good that Standard has to take notice. This can go in any EDH deck. This has Standard implications. This is preordering for $3. If foils are $6 buy all of them. This is Doubling Season good.

 

Concealed Courtyard

We’re getting enemy “fastlands” or whatever people called these. Tango lands? Checkity check lands? These got expensive in Standard, some of them. Everyone remembers how much. $5 each seems pretty reasonable on these and some dude on eBay is enforcing that price pretty hard for the time being and also tracking them all down for you. These could get above $5 long-term but I don’t know if they’ll all get much cheaper so I think if you pay $100 for the set and don’t have to worry about it you have a chance to make money later if any of them take off in Modern like I think the UR one will. All in all, there isn’t much money to be made here for a while and these are just the lands we get and we’ll use them because we used worse lands.

9/2/16 Spoilers

Saheeli’s Artistry

They spoiled this bad boy a week or so ago but I was still trying to digest Conspiracy at that time and one card wasn’t worth speculating about anything over. We know that artifacts matter based on this card but we knew that before. We’re no longer “Putting into play” our tokens but rather we are “Creating” them. That caused a lot of people to speculate that this image was fake. What a clunky card to fake! This is EDH gold, obviously, but it remains to be seen whether Standard will be slow enough for this to matter. 6 mana wants to go a long way toward winning the game in Standard and this doesn’t. This seems like a bulk rare to me, and SCG agrees.

Innovator’s Fair

This card I can get behind. I think Lantern Control has discussed wanting this in Modern and possibly Affinity, but I doubt the second one slightly. A dozen EDH decks want this right off the bat and that could give the foils upside. Here’s a price trajectory of a card with more EDH and Modern demand than this card. Even though $2 pre-order price seems risky.

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Bear that in mind when you consider investing. Investor’s Fair would have to over-perform in Standard to buck these trends. Do you anticipate that?

Aetherworks Marvel

I am not jazzed about this in EDH. Lots of cards do this better and you can’t use any enchantments to double the number of energy counters you get to cheat with this, making it very, very slow. If you can make a lot of permanents go away, though, this could tutor for you turn after turn and with no way yet for your opponents to drain your energy counters, this could get there. I just think this is a very slow way to do things spells already did in Theros block to moderate success. This is OK but I don’t think it will ever break $5. I don’t know if I want to pre-order this for $4.

Architect of the Untamed

All of the cards that grant you energy counters and spend them need a lot of energy counters to work and this is much slower than Marvel in Standard but faster in EDH where you’re generally playing more land. The 6/6 beast isn’t great, though. I could see this being part of a deck that created lots of energy counters for its first ability but maybe not its second. I don’t know enough about how many energy counter cards there will be to say this is trash, but I’m not excited for now. This is preselling for bulk.

Ovalchase Dragster

Cars? Really?

Gonti, Lord of Luxury

I am pretty jazzed about using this outside of Standard. If there are more Aetherborn, this could impact Standard but I’m not ready to say it will, yet. For EDH, though, this is solid. It could be its own commander or just go in a deck like Sen Triplets. Erin Campbell saw this art and speculated that Ashiok could pop up in this block. There’s so much to look at here, but this also feels a bit like a bulk rare. However,  casuals like casting their spells so this could be a player in FNM-tier decks and let’s not pretend that can’t make this $5-$8 in the short term and maybe the longer term again, also. I like this card, but me liking a card doesn’t always mean it won’t be a bulk rare. SCG has this at bulk and that could end up being a mistake on their part.

Skysovereign, Consul Flagship

This is probably a bulk mythic but I can see people wanting to try and make this work in Standard. It’s certainly big and scary and deals with their creatures. I don’t think coughing up 3 power worth of creatures to crew this will be that tough, especially with all of the tokens we’ll see floating around. If this does see play in midrange type decks, this could be $10. Scg is pre-selling this for $4 and it’s not selling out, but this could end up being $20 if it’s the next Dragonlord finisher in a control deck. This isn’t as good as the Dragonlords, though, and $4 may even be too high for this.

Aetherstorm Roc

This is a little more oppressive than it looks at first glance. If we get any cards that synergize with this and give us energy counters, this creature is going to ruin their life. Growing while tapping their blockers is exactly what white creatures that impact Standard end up doing. If you’re getting energy counters for doing other things like playing lands, you may end up able to activate this every time you attack and that is a lot of advantage in combat. I think the $1 the is pre-selling for is too cheap.

Saheeli Rai

I like this card less every time I look at it. 3 mana Planeswalkers have to be good and this doesn’t protect itself well at all. This ultimate is obviously good, but you shouldn’t evaluate a Planeswalker based on that, especially on that needs 4 turns to get there and can’t protect itself. Scry is silly and pinging them is non-trivial but the -2 making a temporary copy and the starting loyalty being so low makes me think this will be played less than people hope. It’s only pre-selling for $20 which is a bad sign for a Planeswalker.

Rashmi, Eternities Crafter

I am in love. This seems like a card that is a little slow, a little hard to build around and hard to benefit from with a small card pool to impact Standard, which relegates this to EDH where a lot of demand will be needed to move the needle on its price. This is Momir Vig good. This is “They literally couldn’t print this without ruining EDH forever if Prophet of Kruphix were legal” good. I’m writing my article this week about how many prices of how many cards this is going to spike this month. Ugh. This card is killer. It’s $6 which may be just about right. But why speculate on this and whether the foil will be $50 when you can just buy all the other cards that will go in this deck? Seriously, this and Leovold in the same month? I live for cards like this.