All posts by James Chillcott

Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad (Draft/Modern): Standard Day 1

Check out our Pro Tour preview over here, and join us for round to round coverage in live blog style below all day.

Round 8: Brad Nelson, on G/R Goggles, is the only other undefeated player at 8-0. Pyromancer’s Goggles could easily climb if this deck makes Top 8, having demonstrated usefulness in multiple shells. Could end up over $15, supply is low.

Round 8: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Valentin Mackl (Bant Company)

In game 1, LSV only hits a Catacomb Sifter on his first Collected Company, but does manage to get a Nantuko Husk in play the turn after. Zullaport Cutthroat joins the team while Mackl fields a bevy of his value creatures to try and create the pressure necessary to keep Luis off of his combo. A mid-game Westvale Abbey activation gets the dangerous demon  With many portions of this deck under $1, Cryptolith Rite and Liliana, Heretical Healer may absorb the spike potential.

Game 2 finds a similar board state, with LSV’s deck outpacing the board presence of the Bant Company deck. With Mackl’s relative lack of removal, LSV is free to pursue his flood and sacrifice plans, and Mackl falls to the only 8-0 record of the day.

Michael Majors (U/W Humans) vs. Christian Calcano (Bant Company)

The players split the first two games. In Game 3 Majors has three copies of Always Watching on the table, making his army of white creatures fairly menacing to Calcano on 4 life, despite the presence of both Nissa and Jace in planeswalker mode and set of reasonable blockers. Calcano manages to stabalize, and as time is called he finds a Tragic Arrogance off the top to clear out the board, including two of the Always Watching copies. Calcano keeps a Lumbering Falls, a Sylvan Advocate and his Nissa, Sage Animist vs. a Thraben Inspector and a single Always Watching. Swinging in Calcano thinks he has it, but Avacyn off the top for Majors leads to a definitive block and Majors is able to take the game on the crack back! Majors goes to 7-1.

Deck Tech #4: Adam Jensen (Mardu Control)

BR

This deck is running four copies of Goblin Dark Dwellers to leverage the many removal spells, Read the Bones and Transgress the Mind.

Round 7: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Jeremy Dezani (Abzan Company)

LSV’s deck uses Cryptolith Rite to good effect, being able to tap his creatures for mana, and then sacrifice them to double up. Sexy. Both sides are also on Collected Company, which may well be the card of the tournament. LSV goes over the top on Turn 5 (!) with Ormendahl off of Westvale Abbey and Dezani packs it in for Game 1. In Game 2 LSV swarms the board again and is able to sac his board to Natuko Husk with two copies of Zulaport Cutthroat in play to take the match.

Justin Cohen (BG Aristocrats) vs. Katsuhiro Mori (Bant Company) is our second feature match this round.

Brad Nelson (RG Goggle Ramp) vs. Christian Calcano (Bant Company)

Nelson takes Game 1 off camera. In Game 2 Nelson gets a Dragonlord Atarka on the table, cleans up the board and starts attacking. During the next combat, Nelson casts Fall of the Titans twice (!) off the Pyromancer’s Goggles, surged for a ton and takes the match, moving to 7-0.

Samuel Tharmaratnam (Mardu Control) vs. Kentaro Yamamoto (Bant Company)

Here we have our first appearance on camera of Nahiri, the Harbinger on camera, alongside Livala, the Preserver out of Samuel’s deck. As we come into the match, the players are tied 1-1. Linvala goes toe to toe with a mid-game Avacyn, the board goes clear, and Samuel follows through with a Chandra, Flamecaller and a Goblin Dark Dwellers to reverse the pressure. An awakened Ruinous Path kills Yamamoto’s remaining creature and Tharmaratnam goes to 6-1.

After Round 6, only Dezani, Sochurek, Nelson, Mackl, LSV and Calcano are at 6-0.

Deck Tech #2: Eduardo Sajgalik: Demonic Tentacles

Brand new deck archetype on display using Crush of Tentacles, Demonic Pact and Dark Petition and a bunch of kill spells to control the board and grind out the opponent’s life. Also runs 4 copies of Oath of Jace. Dark Petition has already popped, but keep an eye on Demonic Pact.

demonic

Round 6: Valentin Mackl (Bant Company) vs. Shota Yasooka (Esper Dragons)

Coming into the weekend Bant Company was definitely the deck to beat, with a list that applies pressure and grinds with the best of them. Yasooka is on Esper Dragons in an attempt to control the aggro decks, and dictate the pace of the mid to late game. Sylvan Advocate and Avacyn doing the expected level of work. Shota notables include Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, Ob Nixilis Reignited, Dragonlord Ojutai and Languish.

In Game 1 a timely Dromoka’s Command puts Shota on the back foot, and he falls to the onslaught of violence from Den Protector and Sylvan Advocate.

In Game 2 Yasooka uses Dragonlord Silumgar to steal a buff Tireless Tracker and beats face in a tempo swing that sees Mackl fold his hand a couple of turns later. Game 3 shows off the power of both builds, with Mackl leveraging Reflector Mage, Avacyn, Nissa and Sylvan Advocate to keep Yasooka on the defensive. Nissa buffs the team, and makes Languish ineffectual from Yasooka. The game grinds on, but an incorrect flip trigger on Avacyn ends up leading to an overwhelming game state in favor of Mackl, who moves to 6-0.

Round 6: LSV (BG Aristocrats) vs. Jon Finkel (BG Ramp)

LSV jumps out to an early start and takes Game 1 from one of the greats of the game. In Game 2, Finkel has trouble finding action and LSV goes to 6-0 to start the tournament.

lsvfinkel

Deck Tech: Craig Wescoe on Mono White Humans

humans

Wescoe breaks down the desire for multiple buff options in the deck, explaining the shift to three copies of Anafenza, King-Tree Spirit to complement the full four copies of Always Watching. Also running four copies of Declaration of Stone.

Dark Petition is also being bought out, having spiked over $8 from $1.50. Will be interesting to see if it can hold that level by generating top table results this weekend. As a potential Modern, Legacy and Vintage card, foils are still available under $10.

Round 5: Seth Mansfield (Esper Control) vs. Jon Finkel (GB Ramp)

Johnny Magic takes game 1 on the back of Nissa’s Renewal, referring to the card as the current Sphinx’s Revelation,  a card that similarly drew cards and gained life a few years back. Mansfield’s deck includes Narset Transcendent and Sphinx of the Final Word. Various cards from the Finkel deck are already spiking on Magic Online, including Tireless Tracker, Dark Petition, The Gitrog Monster, Traverse the Ulvenwald and World Breaker. Look for similar moves in paper if the deck proves its value deeper in the tournament.

Team Eureka is on a GR ramp brew with Pyromancer’s Goggles.

Seasons Past is being bought out as Finkel takes Game 2 and the match.

Off camera Brad Nelson on GR Ramp closes out a game by doing over twenty damage with Fall of the Titans in the presence of a Pyromancer’s Goggles.

Shota Yasooka (Esper Dragons) takes down his opponent on GB Aristocrats.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad (Draft/Modern): Preview

In the stunning city of Madrid, Spain an excellent weekend of Magic: The Gathering Pro Tour action is in motion. Coming off the results of the last couple of weeks on the SCG circuit, the pros have been tasked with addressing a Standard metagame that has so far been dominated by Wx Aggro and Bant Collect Company decks. Quick starts, and curve toppers Archangel Avacyn and Archangel of Tithes have made answering the aggressive decks difficult, as has the lack of definitive and timely sweeper spells. Nevertheless, after weeks of secretive testing, the top pro teams from across the globe have gathered for another epic quest to take home the trophy. With over $250,000 USD on the line, and the winner taking home a hefty $40,000, players will be hard pressed to overcome the deep pool of talent.

The Pro Tour, of course, requires players to succeed in a mixed schedule of booster draft (SOI – SOI – SOI) and constructed play (Standard in this case) with 3 rounds of draft Friday morning, followed by 5 rounds of Standard starting around 7am EST.

For the MTG Finance community, the question of the day is which decks will rise to dominance today in a field that has seemed close to being solved fairly early on.

Will any of the pros find a way to unlock a new archetype with game against the known field? Will an underplayed deck from the previous weeks results suddenly end up perfectly positioned after adding a few new pieces of tech? Will there be a chance to get in on a must-have card that shows early promise or will the hype train leave the bandwagon speculators out in the cold without buyers come Monday morning?

Thus far Shadows Over Innistrad has behave a bit oddly vs. other sets from the last few years, with a full ten rares and mythics holding price tags over $10 a couple of weeks after the set first hit the streets. Archangel Avacyn is the current queen of the format, commanding a consistent $45 at retail, and showing up as a 2-of to 4-of in many of the best performing deck lists. Declaration in Stone is going for $15, an incredible value for a rare kill spell in this format. Meanwhile, much hyped rares Thing in the Ice and Westvale Abbey have peak in the high teens only to fall back towards $10.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards most likely to make a move this weekend.

Cards to Watch

With many Shadows Over Innistrad cards already commanding unsustainable price tags, most of the speculation potential lies this weekend should reside in cards that have yet to make an impact. Here are a few of the interesting cards on our radar this weekend:

Arlinn Kord: Stuck on the bench?

Arlinn KordArlinn, Embraced by the Moon

Despite plenty of early excitement from the Werewolf fans, Arlinn has mostly been left out of the action thus far at the top tables of Standard. With white set up as the de facto best color in the format, and other top decks configured to run Bant or Izzet color schemes, the green/red planeswalker has struggled to make an impact. The winning GR deck at the SCG Standard Open last weekend  failed to field a single copy of Arlinn. At $20, a failure to make waves this weekend should set Arlinn on a path to collapse back towards $10. Plan accordingly, but keep any eye out for a list in the top ranks that runs multiple copies, perhaps in the form of a Jund mid-range list alongside the Gitrog Monster ($6), which could likewise top $10 on a successful showing this weekend.

Current Price: $20
Predicted Price May 1st: $14
Odds to Top 8: 20 to 1

Nahiri, the Harbinger: Time to Shine?

Nahiri, the Harbinger

On the other side of the numbers we have a planeswalker that may turn out to be much better than anticipated. Already popping up in lists like KikiChord in Modern as a 2-of, there is every reason to believe that there may be a configuration in Standard that wants to run multiple copies into a trophy position. If that were to go down, Nahiri could easily swap prices with Arlinn Kord and provide savvy speculators with a potential double up.

Current Price: $10
Predicted Price May 1st: $14
Odds to Top 8: 6 to 1

Sylvan Advocate: Ubiquitous on 2?

Sylvan Advocate

Once available for $2, many players utterly missed how powerful and important a 2-drop that became a Tarmogoyf in the mid-game would be in Standard. The bonus this elf gives your creature lands is just the icing on the cake. This Oath of the Gatewatch rare has already topped $5, but a dominant showing in 50% of the Top 8 decks might be enough to push demand up towards $10 as players conceed to the necessity of running three or four copies.

Current Price: $5
Predicted Price May 1st: $8
Odds to Top 8: 4 to 3

Jace, Vrin’s Prodigy: Can He Hold the Line?

  

Player consensus a few weeks into the new Standard seems to be that Jace isn’t as good in a format without fetchlands and without popular decks capable of filling graveyards quickly. That being said, he is still showing up in both UR Goggles builds as well as in some Bant Company lists. The real question however is whether Jace will be able to hold a $70 price tag heading into rotation in the fall. My gut says the card will fall to $40 or so in late summer, bouncing back over $50 within the year. As such, if you have non-foils you aren’t playing, you may want to think about trading out now, and getting back in down the road. Foils may also show weakness this year, but as the card is playable all the way back to vintage, you can likely hold those for the long term without much fear.

Current Price: $70
Predicted Price May 1st: $65
Odds to Top 8: 5 to 1

Archangel Avacyn: Still Flying High?

Archangel AvacynAvacyn, the Purifier

Avacyn has started this season off as the most feared creature in the format, a flying beater that can mess with combat, save the team, clear the board and certainly finish the game. At $45, she is certainly priced for continued success, so if the metagame managed to swerve around her and keep her from the top tables, her price would be prone to a slide. Given what we’ve seen so far however, white is the color of the season, and the odds are very good that Avacyn will earn her keep in the Top 8.

Current Price: $45
Predicted Price May 1st: $40
Odds to Top 8: 3 to 2

Demonic Pact: Ready to Rogue?

Demonic Pact

This card has jumped by 100% this week on Magic Online, and rumor has it that an Esper enchantments list running four copies of this powerful mythic alongside multiple copies of Starfield of Nyx has been testing well. I would be surprised to see more than a handful of notable pros run a deck like this, but no one saw UR Eldrazi coming at PT Oath of the Gatewatch either. As a $2 mythic, strong performances into Day 2 on camera could easily trigger rampant speculation, pushing this card over $6. Starfield of Nyx is available under $3, and is an easy favorite to top $10 down the road on casual demand in enchantment flavored decks. I like Starfield as a pickup immediately, and will be ready to move in if Pact shows up on camera this weekend.

Current Price: $2
Predicted Price May 1st: $4
Odds to Top 8: 20 to 1

Stay tuned for Round by Round MTGFinance coverage of Pro Tour: Shadows Over Innistrad all weekend!

 

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 4

by Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

Show Notes: Feb 13th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Worship (7th/8th)
Start: $2.50
Finish: $20.00
Gain: +$17.50 (+700%)

Eldrazi Obligator (OGW)
Start: $0.30
Finish: $2.25
Gain: +$1.95 (+650%)

Angel’s Grace (Foil)
Start: $8.90
Finish: $48.00
Gain: +$40.00 (+500%)

Endless One (BFZ)
Start: $1.00
Finish: $5.00
Gain: +$4.00 (+400%)

Simian Spirit Guide (Foil, Planar Chaos)
Start: $20.00
Finish: $80.00
Gain: +$60.00 (+300%)

Descendants’ Path (AVR)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $6.00
Gain: +4.50 (+300%)

Death’s Shadow (Foil)
Start: $8.00
Finish: $30.00
Gain: +22.00 (+275%)

Painter’s Servant (Shadowmoor)
Start: $12.00
Finish: $30.00
Gain: +$18.00 (+150%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

  1. Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger, BFZ: $20 to $40+ (+100%, 0-6 months)
  2. MIrrorpool, OGW (Foil): $13 to $30+ (+130%, 12+ months)
  3. Sea Gate Wreckage, OGW (Foil): $8 to $20+ (150%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: James is only holding copies of Ulamog from this list.

Travis Picks:

  1. Arboria, LEG: $3 to $25 (+700%, 6-12+ months)
  2. Spike Feeder (Foil), TSP: $9 to $20 (+100%, 6-12+ months)

Disclosure: Travis is holding copies of Arboria.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

James and Travis reflected on the absolute dominance of the Eldrazi decks at Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch, noting that 75% of the Top 8 decks were various flavors of the archetype. Affinity made up the other two decks. Team East West Bowl was called out as the most “tech” team of the tournament based on their brilliant UR Eldrazi build designed to give the deck game against Affinity and in the mirror.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Interview with Pro Tour: Oath of the Gatewatch Top 8 Competitor Andrew Brown (UR Eldrazi)

The guys had a good chat with Andrew covering the genesis of the Blue/Red Eldrazi deck, the community reaction to the deck. the financial impact of the decks’ success as well as the likelihood of a related ban in the near future.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

MTG Fast Finance: Episode 3

by Travis Allen (@wizardbumpin) & James Chillcott (@mtgcritic)

MTG Fast Finance is a new weekly podcast that tries to break down the flurry of financial activity in the world of Magic: The Gathering into a fast, fun and useful thirty minute format. Follow along with our seasoned hosts as they walk you through this week’s big price movements, their picks of the week, metagame analysis and a rotating weekly topic.

 

Show Notes: Feb 7th

Segment 1: Top Movers of the Week

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet (OGW)
Start: $9.00
Finish: $14.00
Gain: +$5.00 (+55%)

Past in Flames (INN)
Start: $8.00
Finish: $12.00
Gain: +$4.00 (+50%)

Collected Company (DTK)
Start: $8.50
Finish: $12.00
Gain: +$4.50 (+65%)

Ancestral Vision (Time Spiral)
Start: $8.00
Finish: $14.00
Gain: +$6.00 (+75%)

Worship (7th/8th/9th/Saga)
Start: $2.00
Finish: $4.50
Gain: +$2.50 (+125%)

Thunder Spirit (Legends)
Start: $13.00
Finish: $26.00
Gain: +13.00 (+100%)

Peregrine Drake (Saga)
Start: $1.50
Finish: $3.50
Gain: +2.00 (+133%)

Caverns of Despair (LEG)
Start: $10.00
Finish: $40.00
Gain: +$30.00 (+300%)

Segment 2: Cards to Watch

James Picks:

  1. Inkmoth Nexus, MRB: $40 to $50+ (+25%, 0-6 months)
  2. Pia & Kiran Nalaar, ORI (Intro Foil): $11 to $20+ (+80%, 6-12+ months)
  3. Stone Haven Outfitter, OGW (Foil): $2 to $5+ (150%, 12+ months)

Disclosure: James is holding or acquiring all of the above cards.

Travis Picks:

  1. Collected Company, DTK: $15 to $25 (+67%, 6-12 months)
  2. Spreading Seas, ZEN: $1 to $3 (+200%, 0-6 months)
  3. Shrine of the Foresaken, BFZ: $1 to $3 (+300%, 0-6 months)

Disclosure: Travis is holding copies of Collected Company.

Segment 3: Metagame Week in Review

The guys reviewed the results from the SCG Open Standard tourney in Columbus, Ohio, noting that Gideon, Ally of Zendikar appeared as 4-of in three different decks. The Modern Classic event at the same tournament was won by UG Infect, with Tron, Scapeshift, Burn and Jund all in the Top 8, in clear opposition to the Eldrazi dominated Pro Tour this past weekend.

Segment 4: Topic of the Week: Is MTG Too Expensive?

The guys made predictions as to the likelihood of the Innistrad Echoes promo cards being included in Shadows over Innistrad as rumored, and discussed which cards might be included.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.