All posts by James Chillcott

Grand Prix Toronto: Dealer Report

April 29, 2016 James Chillcott 6 Comments

The action on the floor at GP Toronto this morning is relatively mellow compared to the frenzy at some events further south. Basically none of the big names from American GPs seem to have made the trip, so the ten or so vendor booths are largely occupied by smaller stores from British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec. Dealers on the floor so far include FacetoFace Games, Magic Stronghold, MTG Deals, Mana Toxik, Fusion Gaming, P Market Games, Tome 2, Wizard Tower. Game Keeper Onlineand MTG First.

A quick survey of the vendors on site, confirmed that many of the expected trends for the weekend are in play, with many of the Standard staples from the Pro Tour Top 8 selling briskly.

At MTGFirst, Jason reported that Hissing Quagmire, Declaration in Stone, Archangel Avacyn and Languish were all moving well.

At Fusion Games, word was that Sylvan Advocate and Declaration in Stone were the hottest selling cards of the morning.

MTGDeals called out Duskwatch Recruiter selling briskly at $3 CDN ($2.50 USD) and Tome 2 was sold out of Dark Petition at $12.

At GP Organizer FacetoFace Games Booth, Kalitas was nearly sold out at $35 ($28 USD). The current FacetoFace buylist can be found over here. (Editor’s Note: We’ll also be adding F2F to our Vendor sell price lists on this site next week.)

F2F was also offering some pretty sweet specials alongside their case of altered and rare cards. Here’s a taste of what was on offer, tax included and in CDN dollars (subtract 25% for USD). I picked up ten copies of Ulamog at $11 USD, confident that the card will top $20 down the road. Abbot is similarly tempting at close to $3 USD.

Sexy cardboard at the GP Toronto FacetoFace Games booth.

Here are the buy lists that were in play on the floor this morning. Keep in mind that vendor buy prices get significantly worse as the weekend progresses, so hitting up the vendors today is your best bet if you’re looking to go liquid on Standard and Modern staples or get top dollar on a big ticket item.

Here’s a few of the better deals I snapped up on the floor, all in CDN dollars, so discount by 25% for USD. I’ve been moving in aggressively on some of the Eldrazi I expect to regain staple status in Modern, including Reality Smasher, World Breaker and Though-Knot Seer.

Despite their recent spike over $40, I continue to find small pockets of the promo Birds of Paradise for under $20 USD. Might be wise to poke around your local stores for those.

Foil Korean Anafenza, the Foremost for $12 USD

Anafenza, the Foremost foils in desireable languages are on my acquisitions target list as part of a powerful Modern combo likely to be part of Tier 1 decks for years. I also picked up some Ancient Stirrings at .75/per, which seemed criminal and snagged 10 copies of Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger at $11 USD targeting a $20+ exit in a few years. Buy-a-box promo copies of Goblin Dark Dwellers were widely available around $3 USD, and I continue to run deeper on that card with expectations of a $10+ exit down the road. Russian copies of Westvale Abbey and Archangel Avacyn found below the average floor prices for English copies, rounded out my first round of purchases.

The prize wall for GP Toronto was looking relatively solid, and included plenty of goodies, including a sealed box of Revised and a ton of juicy foils.

Stay tuned for a mini-update Saturday evening once I get back from my afternoon play sessions.

Digging for Dollars

Digging for Dollars: Shadows Over Innistrad

April 24, 2016 James Chillcott 12 Comments

By: James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Shadows Over Innistrad picks up where we left off five years ago, revisiting a plane that delivers on both flavor and play-ability. After the ripples of dissatisfaction that seem to have marred our collective experience with returning to Zendikar, the flavor home run on Innistrad is a welcome boost to fan satisfaction. In terms of card power however, SOI seems to be a set rich with unique, subtly powerful cards that are likely to make their mark at some point down the road.

So what does this mean for those of us looking to make some money on Shadows?

First off, on average, now is the time to sell the set if you’re selling. If you intend to crack cases and sell singles, you should already have them in hand, as within two weeks or less you’ll be facing a saturated market and prices that have fallen to local lows as much as 40-50% below starting prices. At present there are over ten rares and mythics and SOI priced above $10, a completely unsustainable cohort of power cards that will be cut by half within the next few weeks.

Secondly, as a large set packed with cards that are tough to evaluate, but with a lot of potential both mid and long term, the prospects for SOI cards are likely to be a mix of short-term Standard spikes and long term breakouts unlocked by rogue deck building and the printing of companion pieces.

Finally, with the Expedition-style Innistrad Echoes rumors now debunked, card values from this set will be less repressed than they were in Battle for Zendikar.

Now as there has been some confusion in the past over the intent of this article series, let’s get clear. Digging for Dollars is about looking for opportunities that aren’t played out yet, not identifying the most powerful cards in the set, or the obvious cards most likely to see the biggest gains. Many of these picks need planets to align to earn you money, so make sure you’ve exhausted your best options before you go digging folks. Where a card has not yet found it’s bottom, or has been hyped above it’s value, I will try to identify the proper entry point.

This time around we’re going to break up our specs into three categories: Standard Breakout Targets, Future Modern Staples and Long Term Casual Targets. The first group generally needs to find a home within the year in multiple standard decks to do well for you. The latter two groups are mid to long term holds that you should be aiming to acquire at their lows for solid future gains.

STANDARD BREAKOUT TARGETS

1. Nahiri, the Harbinger

Now: $10
Target: $20+
Timeline: Short to Long Term (0-12+ months)

Nahiri tops my list largely on the basis that she is a solid card in Standard that may have a shot at turning into a significant card in Modern. Yes, Modern. This afternoon I watched a Jeff Hoogland Modern stream to find him running two copies of Nahiri in his KikiChord deck, only to run up against a WR Humans deck that started aggro, established early board presence, dropped Nahiri and proceeded to find Emrakul for the win. It’s especially nice that you can discard your single copy of Emrakul to Nahiri for extra value and have it shuffled right back into your deck for future shenanigans. Without top 8 camera time, she may not ever get there, but any $10 mythic that may show up in multiple Modern decks deserves a second look. Her floor is between $6-8 during her Standard tenure, so there’s not much risk in picking up a play set to use, with solid potential upside. In Standard, Nahiri has mostly been showing up in WR Eldrazi and Naya Superfriends builds. Last weekend, Jacob Bard placed 12th in the SCG open running four copies in the main.

I’m in for three play sets for now, and my confidence is at 60% that this will pay off before she rotates out of Standard. Foils are already around $30, which is pricing for success in Modern, but if I see some closer to $20 my wallet may open.

2. Olivia, Mobilized for War

Now: $10 (try to acquire around $20 at peak supply)
Target Buy Price: $7
Target Sell Price: $14 (+100%)
Timeline: Short to Mid (0-12 months)

The vampire queen enjoyed significant hype pressure shortly after she was announced, as we all assumed that SOI would cough up a serious BR Vampires aggro deck. Instead testing showed that there wasn’t quite enough power in the tribe, nor enough relevant madness cards, and Humans turned up in force as the best aggro deck. The thing is, we still have another set to go in this block, and we may well get the one or two aggro oriented vampires in Eldritch Moon that are necessary to put Olivia back on the table. If the new vampires are sexy enough, you may be able to unload into a preview spike regardless of whether the deck breaks out. If none of that happens, look to nab Olivia around $5 during summer lulls, as she has a solid chance of topping $10 a few years down the road on casual demand alone. Pick confidence at 6/10 on this one.

3. Fevered Visions

The key with Fevered Visions is that you get to draw first, which is a big step up vs. many of the previous Howling Mine variants. Last weekend Todd Anderson was on camera at the SCG Invitational, abusing the heck out of this card in his innovative UR Control build in Standard. In that Pyromancer’s Goggles driven deck, four copies of Visions come out of the sideboard to put slow moving opponents in a very uncomfortable position. The ability to redirect the damage triggers to take down planeswalkers is a sexy bonus. There is every reason to believe that the meta could adapt within a reasonable time-frame and possibly push this deck out of the format, but I’m happy to pick up copies of this card under $1 now, with the knowledge that they could easily hit $3-4 in a few years on creeping casual demand or a break out Modern appearance. If you wait it out, you may be able get these on sale somewhere this summer around $.50. The skeptic in me is keenly aware that Dictate of Kruphix is still widely available at $1, so my confidence in the pick is a mere 5/10.

Now: $0.75
Target Buy Price: $0.50
Target Sell Price: $3+ (+300%)
Timeline: Short to Long (0-12 months)

POTENTIAL MODERN PLAYABLES

4. Traverse the Ulvenwald

In a world where you can’t reliably achieve Delirum, this is a pretty lame land retrieval spell. In Modern or Legacy however, where stocking the graveyard fast and early is relatively easy, the prospects for a card that can tutor for any land or creature for just one mana are worth paying attention to. Lengthy Commander games are even more likely to find you with the necessary four card types in your graveyard to turn on the powered mode here.

It could take some time, but I expect this card will find a home in Modern sooner or later. Foils are currently around $10, but if this ends up played in a Tier 2+ deck in Modern at some point you may be able to unload over $20, after getting in around lows of $6-8. My pick confidence rating is 6/10 here.

Now: $4
Target Buy Price: $2-3
Target Sell Price: $10 (150%+)
Timeline: Long-Term (12-36 months+)

5. The Gitrog Monster

Now: $7
Target Buy Price: $5-6
Target Sell Price: $15+ (115%)
Timeline: Long Term (12 months+)

Potential Commander in EDH? Check. Unique set of powerful abilities that ooze synergy? Check. Big dangerous body? Check. Mythic and memorable? Check, check.

All of that is enough is to convince me that this card will eventually top $15. My guess is that it takes a few years, unless of course, someone figures out how to bust it in Modern, and it ends up as a 3-4 of. As a 1-2 of in a single deck, regular copies would still likely need some time to top $15. Foils are currently priced for success at $20, but I’d be more interested at $15, and will look for deals over the next couple of weeks. Pick confidence of 8/10.

6. Drownyard Temple

Now: $2
Target Buy Price: $1.50-2
Target Sell Price: $10+
Timeline: Very Long Term (36 months+)

This card has gone under the radar for most players, but as Todd Anderson has demonstrated in gleaning value from the card in UR Goggle Control, being able to pay discard costs with Temple can be pretty sweet. This is not an uber-powerful staple by any means, and the growth is likely to be slow and steady for 3-5 years, but I think you’ll get a chance to get these under $2, and get out down the road as high as $10 when the implied synergy becomes valuable in a previously unseen Modern deck that wants either discard cost reduction, extra landfall triggers, or both. Lands with snyergistic upside are some of the best long term targets, so there is little to fear here. Pick confidence is 8/10.

Long Term Casual

7. Startled Awake

This card is no Glimpse the Unthinkable, but it does provide casual mill players with a form of inevitability and thirteen cards off the top is a lot in sixty card formats.

Now: $3 ($7 foil)
Target Buy Price: $2 ($5 foil)
Target Sell Price: $10 ($20+ foil)
Timeline: Very Long-Term (36+ months)

7. Relentless Dead

When this card was revealed during spoiler season for SOI, everyone was convinced it was going to be an automatic 4-of staple in Standard, and speculation about Modern play-ability was being bandied about. But then the zombie deck components failed to show up in the full set list, and this card has been on the backslide ever since. Long term the power level is high enough that between potential synergies with Eldritch Moon cards, Modern potential and casual demand, I’ll be happy to stash some copies away once the price drops low enough. This is the kind of card that gets played as a 4-of when it is played at all, and that’s a great place to be with a mythic that can show price growth from any of one of multiple angles.

Now: $11
Target Buy Price: $5
Target Sell Price: $10+
Timeline: Mid-to-Long Term (6-12+ months)

8. Seasons Past

Note: This article was written the Thursday before the Pro Tour. Apologies that this card spiked before you got to see this guys. 🙁

This is a green mythic that can draw an entire grip full of cards on Turn 4 or 5 in kitchen table magic pretty reliably, and has all the hallmarks of a card that will be forgotten only to get bought out in five years and spike over $10. It’s by no means a high priority, but $2 mythics are largely risk free, and I’d be stoked to stash several playsets away if they up cheaper during an online sale or at summer lulls. It’s also not impossible that someone will find a use for this in Standard on camera before it rotates, which could push it over $5 in a hurry.

Now: $2
Target Buy Price: $2
Target Sell Price: $5+
Timeline: Short-to-Long Term

Cards You Should Be Selling

1. Archangel Avacyn ($40+)

There is no doubt at all that Avacyn could stay a $40+ card for parts of her career if the meta breaks right and for long enough to drive demand beyond her peak supply period later this month. My fear is that the format is going to relegate Avacyn to one major archetype, and that, like Dragonlord Ojutai before her, she will fall under $15 before peaking once again during a future meta shift. If you are playing the card, it’s a hold, but any extra copies are a solid trade out right now and will cover nearly 1/2 of a box to find more cards you need.

2. Arlinn Kord ($25)

Yeah, I know you love werewolves, and flip planeswalker werewolves are awesome, but this card is going to end up under $15 within the month. There a couple of potential shells for Arlinn in Standard, and she could be anywhere from 2-4 copies in R/G Aggro build, a R/G Eldrazi build or some kind of “super friends” deck. None of that is going to change the fact that she is much more likely to fall below $20 heading into peak supply than she is to peak over $30. The one caveat is if she wins a major standard tournament, or starts putting up consistently dominant results on MTGO leading into a buy out, but I find that unlikely. Once she’s closer to $10 she’ll be more tempting, but keep in mind that most planeswalkers peak early, fail to earn their keep and fall back to reality in a hurry without ever enjoying major demand in Standard. Get out now and you’re unlikely to be upset about it later. Jace, Unraveler of Secrets above $15 is a certain exit point as well as I see the card ending up $8-10 within a month or two.

3. Relentless Dead ($11)

As stated above, get out now, and look for any entry closer to $5 when folks realize they have no good place to play this away from the kitchen table and before potential partner cards show up in Eldritch Moon spoilers.

4. Westvale Abbey ($12)

Don’t get me wrong, Westvale Abbey is a very real card, a likely Modern Tier 2 staple and a future acquisition target around $4-6, but as a rare in a large set it is highly unlikely to hold above $10. Sell now, get in later.

Oath of the Gatewatch Update

In Digging for Dollars: Battle for Zendikar, I called out the following specs as undervalued cards with some chance of financial success (shown with original and current pricing):

1. Goblin Dark Dwellers (Promo): $6 to $3 (-50%)
2. Thought-Knot Seer (Foil): $25 to $40 (at peak, +60%)
3a. Slip Through Space (Foil): $1.50 to $3.00 (+100%)
3b. Expedite (Foil): $1.50 to $1.50 (+0%)
4. Stone Haven Outfitter: $.75 to .50 (-33%)
5. Eldrazi Mimic (Foil): $3 to $20 (at peak, +670%), now $8
6. Sea Gate Wreckage (Foil): $7 to $7 (+0%)
7. Nissa, Voice of Zendikar: $16 to $13 (-19%)
8. High Demand Oath Expeditions: Various
9. Wastes (Foil, Kozilek Art): $10 to $15 (+50%)

The Oath portfolio did relatively well in a short period of time, largely on the back of my being out in front on the Eldrazi Winter thing. Early testing showed Eldrazi to look utterly busted, and I correctly called Though-Knot Seer and Eldrazi Mimic foils in time to set you up for solid gains if you got in before everyone realized it was all going to get banned. Mimic still has some long term potential as it gets turned on by colorless rather than Eldrazi creatures, and Thought-Knot Seer foils are actually looking tasty again around $15 given that folks are already showing the deck can be competitive without Eye of Ugin, and given that Eldrazi is very real in Legacy and highly unlikely to be attacked with a banning there. Eye of Ugin expeditions can be found right now as low as $70 and that is a very tempting entry point.

Expedite foils haven’t gone everywhere, but Slip Through Space foils have already doubled up, and I expect both to be $5 down the road when they Top 8 something nasty that involves a lot of cantrips.

Goblin Dark Dwellers promos are the better art of the two options, and are now as low as $3. This card is going to be a 1-2 of Modern staple for a long time in at least Jund and Grixis decks, and I like the card a lot at current pricing. Stone Haven Outfitter is down to a very tempting $.50 and the entry point is excellent. Sooner or later equipment combo becomes a thing, and this card hits $5. Could be a year, could be give but I already have 100+ copies, and I’ll look for more on sale this summer. Sea Gate Wreckage foils haven’t moved much, but that’s because they were targeted for long term growth. Check back in on those two years from now. Kozilek Wastes full-art foils have already gained 50% and will easily beat $20 within the next year or two. A good call there.

And here were the cards I advised be sold:

1. Lesser Expedition Lands: Various, But By & Large Down by 10-40%
2. Kozilek, the Great Distortion: $20 to $6 (-70%)
3. Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet: $8 to $20 (+150%)

Lesser Expedition lands and Kozilek were good sell calls, having shed significant value from their peaks. Kozilek can be had now around $7-8, and I like that entry point for slow future gains with potential in Standard and Modern. Kalitas ended up doing much better in Standard than he was set to when I made the call to sell him, but the larger miss was seeing his potential in Jund for Modern. Mea culpa.

Battle for Zendikar Upate

In Digging for Dollars: Magic Origins, I called out the following specs as undervalued cards with some chance of financial success (shown with original and current pricing):

Drana, Liberator of Malakir: $15 to $8 (-47%)
Oblivion Sower: $5.50 to $8.75 (+60% at peak)
Retreat to Corelhelm (Foil): $12 to $4 (-67%)
Woodland Wanderer: $4 to $1 (-75%)
Emeria Sheppard (Foil): $8 to $5 (-38%)
Painful Truths: $1.50 to $3 (+100% at peak)
Bring to Light (Foil): $16 to $6 (-63%)

So far, this list isn’t doing very well. Let’s see what’s going on.

In many ways Battle For Zendikar has played out as we predicted. The presence of some very expensive lottery tick – er, I mean Expeditions has held down the price of most of the cards in the set, and if it weren’t for fetch/battle lands driving insane mana bases, Standard would have been pretty affordable this season. Those Expeditions found their lows during peak supply in late November, and have since rebounded, just as I expect the Oath ones to. Moving forward it will be worth keeping an eye on Expedition pricing, as boxes of BFZ around $90 may get pretty tempting next fall if the prices climb high enough on the sexy lands.

Drana, Liberator of Malakir is a decent card that simply hasn’t found a home. I’ve been running two copies in my WB Aggro/Control build in Standard for months, but most players find her to have too little board impact in a format that is contending with fast aggro decks and angelic bombs. If she hits $5 I’ll take another look, hoping for new synergies in Eldritch Moon with long term casual as the backup plan.

Oblivion Sower peaked around $9, but has since fallen back to $3, which is a very solid entry point for a Modern playable mythic.

On the long term side, the Retreat to Corelhelm deck hasn’t posted a big result in Modern yet, but that’s a good thing here because you can now get in on the prospect of this busted card eventually doing big things for just $4 per foil. I love that price. A Bant Company deck did well on camera at the SCG Invitational last weekend running the combo with Knight of the Reliquary, and sooner or later it will stick.

Emeria Sheppard foils are back up to $5 now, and I endorse stashing some of those away for future EDH/Casual angel gains. Painful Truths is flat vs. my buy price, but you had a solid chance to trade out for a double up when it was peaking in early winter. Bring to Light has collapsed, but both cards have foils carrying a whopping 10x foil multiplier, a sure sign that people expect them to do big things moving forward. Both cards are seeing experimental play in Modern, and some enterprising pros are already swearing by Truths in Legacy, so grabbing a bunch of these at current pricing for long term gains seems reasonable.

Magic Origins Update

In Digging for Dollars: Magic Origins, I called out the following specs as undervalued cards with some chance of financial success (shown with original and current pricing):

Nissa, Vastwood Seer: $26 to $18 (-28%)
Erebos’s Titan: $8.40 to $1 (-87%)
Abbot of Keral Keep (Foil): $13 to $20 (50%+)
Evolutionary Leap (Foil): $15 to $6 (-60%)
Harbinger of the Tides (Foil): $18 to $6 (-67%)
Demonic Pact: $3.75 to $3 (-20%)
Animist’s Awakening: $10 to $4 (-60%)

So far, the only solid win from the list was Abbot of Keral Keep foils, if you rode the earlier spike above $20. I correctly identified that the card was Modern-playable and likely to rise on demonstrative play. As it turns out, the card is seeing play in both Grixis and Temur decks in Modern, including the innovative Temur Prowess deck played to a solid finish last year by Patrick Chapin. Since the fall spike noted in our last check-in, these foils have fallen back to $10 or so as the price of Jace has continued to rise. I’d recommend moving in on the card at this price if you haven’t already, as I still predict a future price over $20 on further Modern play.

As for the rest, Erebos’s Titan and Pact never got anywhere, but Abbot, Leap and Harbinger all represent excellent long term value. Of the three, Harbinger and Abbot are the most proven, so focus on those.

So there you have it. Anything I missed that you’re on top of? Logic to kill one of the specs? Have at it. Let’s figure it out!

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

Pro Tour Coverage

Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad: Top 8 Coverage

April 23, 2016 James Chillcott 7 Comments

Finals: Andrea Mengucci (Bant Company) vs. Steven Rubin (G/W Tokens)

With six of a possible eight copies of Archangel Avacyn in the finals of this Pro Tour stop, the powerful angel seems poised to hold her value heading into the next few weeks of Standard. Also worth noting that there are numerous copies of Canopy Vista in the combined mana base of the finalists, as well as a full eight copies of Sylvan Advocate, a creature that seems likely to be ubiquitous this season.

G/W tokens as played by Rubin called out on camera by LSV again as the deck of the tournament, with Team FacetoFace credited for the deck.

In Game 1, the board stalls out pretty quickly, but Rubin has the dynamic duo of Nissa and Gideon behind his army to create massive advantage. A top decked Secure the Wastes sets up a huge swing on the back of a double buff from the ‘walkers and Rubin takes Game 1. A match win here could possibly push Nissa over $15 and Gideon back over $25.

Whoa. Massive changes to the benefits of Hall of Fame and Platinum Pro status, effectively reducing their guaranteed earnings to fund a more bombastic World Championships. Can’t imagine the top pros are going to be too pleased about that, and Hall of Fame benefits shouldn’t be negotiable after the fact.

Game 2 plays out in similar fashion. In a small board stall, Rubin ultimates his first Gideon immediately and hides out behind a growing Hangarback Walker. Mengucci is sitting on two copies of Reflector Mage, while Rubin awaits the moment to launch a surprise attack with Archangel Avacyn. Drawing into another Secure the Wastes with the Gideon emblem in play, allows Rubin to wreck an all out attack plan from Mengucci by dropping a pile of token blockers in their path, though he does end up at eight life. A Westvale Abbey activation on the following turn however, and Rubin is in position to take the game in the air.

Game 3, our first game post-sideboard, ends up looking very similar in the early turns, but Mengucci does manage to leverage Tragic Arrogance to force Rubin into a slimmer board presence. Rubin is able to cast Hangarback Walker for zero to try and flip a newly require Avacyn, but Mengucci answers with an Avacyn of his own, dancing through the hole in Rubin’s plans by saving his entire board. Rubin ends up with multiple Walkers in play, but Andrea ends up with the only Avacyn on the board, and looks to turn the corner. Rubin however top decks Dromoka’s Command, and threatens to kill Avacyn and cash out a Walker for multiple fliers. Mengucci chooses to cast a second Avacyn in response, saving the first copy, but yielding to the Walker tokens. Steve then top decks his own Tragic Arrogance, taking out Bounding Krasis, Avacyn, and Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, and allowing him to cash in his second Hangarback Walker for additional tokens. Mengucci responds with an activation from a fresh Jace, flashing back his own Tragic Arrogance to trim the board once again for Rubin.

Rubin’s next big play is a Nissa, Voice of Zendikar, which starts making tokens but Mengucci fills up from a Collected Company and a Nissa, Vastwood Seer, and pushes through to move to 1-2 on the match thus far.

Game 4 finds Rubin on Nissa on Turn 3, holding off attackers with plant tokens long enough to find enough mana to cast an end of turn Archangel Avacyn, into a Gideon, Ally of Zendikar which immediately sacs for an emblem. Fearing only a Tragic Arrogance from Mengucci, Rubin makes another plant token, and challenges Mengucci to find an answer to a dominant board position. A Reflector Mage from Mengucci on Avacyn, prompts a flurry of activity as Rubin strives to find the opening he needs to get the last four points of life from Andrea in the air. Rubin subsequently sacs Nissa to boost a growing team of plant tokens, Sylvan Advocate and Avacyn, and tries to decide when and whether to sacrifice some of that army to put the demon prince into play. He ultimately chooses to swing with the entire team first, forcing a round of bad chump blocks from Andrea. An Ojutai’s Command from the Italian seeks to keep him alive, but it isn’t enough and Steven Rubin and G/W tokens wins Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad!

Semi-finals: Seth Manfield (Esper Control) vs. Steven Rubin (G/W Tokens)

LSV calls out G/W Tokens as one of the best performing decks of the Swiss rounds. In Game 1, Narset appears from Seth to answer early action from Rubin in the form of a pair of Thraben Inspectors. Narset survives for several turns and does a ton of work on camera, rebounding a Dark Petition that seeks out important kill spells and answer both Nissa and Gideon from Rubin. With an Avacyn in hand and a lonely Westvale Abbey on the table, Rubin soon finds himself facing down a trio of planeswalkers, including Narset, Sorin and Jace, Unraveler of Secrets with a combined loyalty of seventeen. Manfield quickly takes over and claims Game 1.

In Game 2, Rubin gets a mix of threats in play, including Hangarback Walker, Sylvan Advocate and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. Seth gets off a Languish to slow the advance, but leaves Gideon in play, a potent threat that is quickly followed up with an end of turn Secure the Wastes that finds Seth without a counter spell. Rubin evens things out at 1-1.

In our third game, having taken Languish out of his deck against a tokens deck, Manfield uses two early copies of Anguished Unmaking to get rid of Nissa and Gideon respectively and try to keep the board under control. Rubin rebuilds with a Sylvan Advocate and a second copy of Nissa, Voice of Zendikar vs. a hand of Sorin, Ultimate Price and Ruinous Path. The Path takes down Nissa on the following turn, and Manfield digs for additional answers with his Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy. Rubin gets an Avacyn on the board which is sent to the bin by Ultimate Price. An Oath of Nissa finds him an additional copy of Gideon, Ally of Zendikar, which Rubin uses to table a 2/2 knight token only to get hit by another copy of Ruinous Path. Sigarda, Heron’s Grace is the next threat to enter the fray and Seth follows on with Sorin, Grim Nemesis to trade off. Hangback Walker for three from Rubin presents a tough threat for Manfield, and on the next turn Rubin finds Westvale Abbey off the top with five creatures already in play. The resulting demon quickly takes Game 3 for Rubin.

In Game 4, Rubin keeps a land heavy hand, and finds his early Nissa answered by counter magic. Kalitas, Tratior of Ghet enters on Seth’s side, but Rubin has the Stasis Snare off the top to answer. Manfield however manages to field a second copy of the legendary vampire and the impact on a pair of Hangarback Walkers is felt immediately. Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Narset, Transcendent join the squad for Seth, and Rubin is clearly stalled out, while Manfield adds Sorin, Grim Nemesis to fully take control of the board against a pair of Thraben Inspectors. Game 4 to Seth and we move on to the deciding game.

Game 5 sees Rubin get two Hangarback Walkers into play, prompting an early Languish that fails to deal with Nissa or Gideon. Anguised Unmaking does take down Gideon the following turn, but continued pressure and a fresh Archangel Avacyn takes the match for Rubin, who moves on to the finals.

SEMI-FINALS: SHOOTA YASOOKA (ESPER CONTROL) VS. ANDREW MENGUCCI (BANT COMPANY)

Mengucci takes the match in five games, putting the Bant Company deck that the field thought they had outmaneuvered into the finals despite their best efforts. It is worth noting that in the Swiss rounds, only Lee Shi Tian managed a 9-1 record, and he was also on Bant Company. Also, depsite not making Top 8, U/W Humans in the hands of Raymond Cheung and Mono White Humans from Pat Cox, did each achieve an 8-2 record.

QUARTERFINALS: ANDREA MENGUCCI (BANT COMPANY) VS JON FINKEL (BG CONTROL)

Mengucci wins the match in

QUARTERFINALS: STEVE RUBIN (GREEN-WHITE TOKENS) VS (23) BRAD NELSON (RED-GREEN GOGGLE RAMP)

Despite a series of grindy games, where Pyromancer’s Goggles and World Breaker both put in a good work, Steve Rubin defeats Brad Nelson 3-0 on the back of Avacyn and Westvale Abby and advances to the semifinals, having won three games where he tabled very aggressive starts.

BREAKING NEWS: WoTC uses the platform of a very diverse Standard Pro Tour to announce that Modern will no longer be a Pro Tour format, throwing the growth of Modern specs into question. My guess is that this could shave some growth potential off of non-staples without having much of a meaningful impact on Modern staple card values directly. If however, we see the de-emphasis of the format trickle down to the GP and local level as fewer top players have a reason to play more Modern, the threat to Modern specs could be heightened. Details here.

QUARTERFINALS: (2) SETH MANFIELD (ESPER CONTROL) VS. LUIS SALVATTO (R/W ELDRAZI GOGGLES)

Seth Manfield defeats Luis Salvatto.

Andrea Mengucci defeats Jon Finkel 3-1 and advances to the semifinals!

QUARTERFINALS: LUIS SCOTT-VARGAS (B/G ARISTOCRATS) VS. SHOTA YASOOKA (ESPER DRAGONS)

In Game 1, LSV starts strong, only to run into multiple early kill spells and a Languish that clears the board. The explosive power of the GB deck is proven again however, as LSV casts Collected Company end of turn, finding a Husk and a Cutthroat, to untap and kill Shoota on the spot.

In Game 2, Shoota manages to trade kill spells for early creatures, minimizing the drain damage along the way from Luis and setting up a shop with a rampant Dragonlord Ojutai helps the Japanese player pull away for the win.

Game 3 sees LSV go to six cards on the play, and again his early threats are efficiently answered with the likes of Grasp of Darkness, Ultimate Price and Foul Tongue Invocation. Despite an amazing series of plays by Luis where Liliana, Heretical Healer put in some good work, Shoota finds a copy of Languish and lands a Dragonlord Ojutai to set up a nearby win.

In Game 4, Luis only get a chance to field a few early threats before Shoota clears them out with his opponent flooding out on lands. LSV loses the match and moves on to the coverage booth.

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Hold on to your hats folks, this is going to be good.

Heading into this Pro Tour many observers seemed convinced that the metagame had been solved early and that Bant Company and White Humans were going to settle into the top tables. Instead we got an incredibly diverse field and a Top 8 full to the brim with eight distinct decks and a plethora of innovative brewing technology. The Top 8 competition may be the best of all time, with three Hall of Fame members, a former Player of the Year, and the current World Champion.

So far, the big financial movers of the weekend have included a bevy of underrated cards including Pyromancer’s Goggles, Seasons Past, Dark Petition, Cryptolith Rite, Languish and Hissing Quagmire. With such a diverse field, it may take a finals appearance to defend the price spikes, so we should pay special attention to the cards like Dark Petition, Languish, Archangel Avacyn and Goggles that have shown value across multiple shells. That being said, selling into the hype ahead of the results is almost certainly your best bet, as back sliding on many of the spiked cards is quite likely this week. Of the cards that haven’t really moved, Nissa, Voice of Zendikar and Narset, Transcendant may have the most upside as three to four of inclusions in their respective decks. At $18 or so, Dragonlord Ojutai has six copies in Day 3 across two distinctive Esper Control shells, and has peaked over $30 before. World Breaker is currently around $8, but could hit $15 again if it makes the finals, especially given that the card is also setting up shop in Modern.

To recap, here are our Top 8 deck types and their notable cards:

Jon Finkel: B/G Control (Dark Petition, Seasons Past, Hissing Quagmire, Languish)
Seth Manfield: Esper Control (Dark Petition, Narset, Ascendant, Ob Nixilis, Sorin, Grim Nemesis)
Brad Nelson: R/G Goggles (Pyromancer’s Goggles, World Breaker, Fall of the Titans, Kozilek’s Return)
Luis Scott-Vargas: B/G Aristocrats (Collected Company, Cryptolith Rite, Liliana, Heretical Healer, Duskwatch Recruiter)
Shota Yasooka: Esper Dragons (Dragonlord Ojutai, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy)
Steve Rubin: G/W Tokens (Nissa, Gideon, Avacyn)
Luis Salvato: R/W Eldrazi (Pyromancer’s Goggles, Thought Knot-Seer, Archangel Avacyn, Nahiri, The Harbinger, Fall of the Titans)
Andrea Mengucci: Bant Company (Collected Company, Archangel Avacyn)

Full lists can be found here.

Our match-up ladder starts as follows:

Jon Finkel (BG Control) vs. Andrea Mengucci (Bant Company)
Seth Manfield (Esper Planeswalkers) vs. Luis Salvato (R/W Eldrazi)
Brad Nelson (G/R Goggles) vs. Steve Rubin (G/W Tokens)
Luis Scott-Vargas (G/B Aristocrats) vs. Shota Yasooka (Esper Dragons)

Pro Tour Coverage, Uncategorized

Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad: Day 2 MTGFinance Coverage

April 23, 2016 James Chillcott 3 Comments

Our Top 8 for Pro Tour Shadows Over Innistrad has been made official:

1st, Jon Finkel: B/G Control (Dark Petition, Seasons Past, Hissing Quagmire)
2nd, Seth Manfield: Esper Control (Dark Petition, Narset, Ascendant, Ob Nixilis)
3rd, Brad Nelson: R/G Goggles (Pyromancer’s Goggles, World Breaker)
4th, Luis Scott-Vargas: B/G Aristocrats (Collected Company, Cryptolith Rite)
5th, Shota Yasooka: Esper Dragons (Dragonlord Ojutai)
6th, Steve Rubin: G/W Tokens (Nissa, Gideon, Avacyn)
7th, Luis Salvato: R/W Eldrazi (Thought Knot-Seer, Archangel Avacyn, Nahiri, The Harbinger)
8th, Andrea Mangucci: Bant Company (Collected Company, Archangel Avacyn)

It’s worth noting that with eight entirely different decks in contention, the finals is likely to be the final word in which of the cards listed above make a move or hold their gains. The cards with the most copies across all Top 8 decks seem to include Archangel Avacyn, Dark Petition, and Collected Company. I would expect that Pyromancer’s Goggles will cement a price tag over $15, and possibly over $20 if it makes the finals. Cryptolith Rite looks very real, and should be able to hold any price below $10 easily. Tune in tomorrow for Top 8 coverage!

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Seth Manfield wins his match. He is a lock for Top 8, and Narset Transcendent has a chance to gain some ground, especially if he makes the finals.

Round 16: Luis Scott-Vargas (G/B Aristocrats) vs. Chye Yian Hsiang (White Humans)

Faced with dangerous tie breakers and successive rounds of opponents that need to win to Top 8, LSV finds himself needing to win his final match to make Top 8. In Game 1, early pressure from Hsiang is met with a mid-combat Collected Company, helping LSV turn the corner and stabilize against the aggro deck. With Westvale Abbey in play and a Zulaport Cutthroat on the table, LSV looks for a gap to drive home the demon prince. Knocked down to three life on the next attack, LSV finds another Collected Company off the top to nab a 2nd Cutthroat and a Catacomb Sifter, giving him a large enough army to claim the game off of multiple drain triggers and a high flying demon attack.

Game 2 runs much the same way, with early pressure shrugged off by drain life gain via Cutthroat and LSV manages to combo his way into his seventh lifetime Top 8!

Deck Tech: G/B Control (Reid Duke)

Reid explains that black has the best removal, green has the best ramp spells, and the Dark Petition/Seasons Past combo is too strong to ignore. Notable that the deck only runs two copies of Seasons Past, which may limit price movement, depending on how the deck finishes in the Top 8. Deck also runs Infinite Obliteration as a single copy, and two copies each of Transgress the Mind and Duress. Obliteration has the potential to recursively remove all remaining threats in an opponent’s deck if the game goes long enough. Ruinous Path is a three-of. Two copies of Kalitas, and four copies of Languish, a card that could easily hit $5 if that number becomes common. Hissing Quagmire is a four-of as well, and interacts well with Ruinous Path. This land could easily double up this week to $6 from $3.

Round 15: Jon Finkel (B/G Control) vs. Luis Salvato (R/W Control)

To be this deep in the tournament and still seeing hot new decks at the top tables is pretty insane. Slavatto is running a build with Thought-Knot Seer, Chandra, Flamecaller, Goblin Dark-Dwellers, Fall of the Titans, Lightning Axe, Pyromancer’s Goggles, Secure the Wastes and Westvale Abbey. Goggles seems destined to top $20 this week as a card that is being abused in at least three viable color combinations.

The players split the first two games. Late in Game 3, Jon has a full grip, but Salvatto manages to get in a big hit with seven Secure the Wastes tokens, and takes a Languish with his Thought-Knot Seer. Sitting at nine life, Jon has fourteen lands in play but no immediate answer to the token army and is forced to lay Kalitas and pass. Salvato decides to cash his army in for Ormendahl, and falls into a waiting trap with Finkel taking down the profane prince using a double Grasp of Darkness.

Salvato attempts to rebuild with Nahiri, the Harbinger, but Jon starts in with the Dark Petition/Seasons Past recursion and Salvato extends the hand. Finkel stands all alone at 14-1 surveying his kingdom at securing the top seed in the Top 8.

Round 15: Steven Rubin (G/W Tokens) vs. Yuuya Watanabe (Mono-White Humans)

Both players are on 11-3 and need a win to guarantee Top 8 access. Rubin takes the first game with his token deck configured to tackle the expected white weenie strategies at the tournament. In game 2, Watanabe gets stuck on land, and Rubin puts the match away to put Hangarback Walker, Nissa and Gideon into the Top 8.

Deck Tech: G/R Goggle Ramp (Pierre Dagen)

Dagen outlines that beating Collected Company decks using Goggles to go over the top in lieu of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon resulted in the genesis of the deck. Deck runs three copies of Pyromancer’s Goggles and Traverse the Ulvenwald. Magmatic Insight and Tormenting Voice provide ridiculous card draw with Goggles, and early game card selection options. Four copies of Fiery Impulse and Kozilek’s Return are complemented by three copies of Fall of the Titans, which has been delivering massive kills out of nowhere all weekend. Three copies of World Breaker are more likely to drive price gains than the single Dragonlord Atarka, I would think.

Away from the feature match area, a match is being covered that includes a W/R Goggles deck and a Sultai Control brew. The W/R Goggles deck looks likely to make Top 8.

Round 14: Jeremy Dezani (Abzan Company) vs. Seth Manfield (Esper Control)

The players take a game each to set up a match maker. Just a regular old battle between the reigning World Champion and the winner of Pro Tour Theros. With Narset and Kalitas on board, Manfield is able to push through and take the match. Narset is likely to Top 8.

Jon Finkel goes to 13-1, beating a mono-white humans deck off camera.

Round 14: Lukas Blohon (Jund) vs. Oliver Tiu (Grixis Control)

There are a full eight copies of Goblin Dark-Dwellers between these two decks. At $3, GDD could be set up to double up. Both decks are running grindy control strategies. Oliver fields an early Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy, showing off the card of the year in yet another deck shell. Oliver takes game one with a well defended Kalitas. In game two after some back and forth, Blohon resolves Dark Petition, putting the card back in the spotlight, finds a Ruinous Path and dispatches a threatening Kalitas from Oliver. The effort is for naught however, as Oliver is able to get in for lethal and get ever closer to his first top 8.

Deck Tech #2: Matt Nass (B/G Aristocrats)

Deck progenitor Matt Nass outlines the thought process behind the development of the sexy deck that LSV and Team Channel Fireball are on. Duskwatch Recruiter with a Cryptolith Rite on the board is highlighted as an amazing card draw engine. Decks runs four of each of Cutthroat, Sifter, Husk and Collected Company, as well as two of Liliana, Heretical Healer. Also, three copies of WestVale Abbey and four copies of Hissing Quagmire.

Round 13: Jon Finkel (BG Control) vs. Jeremy Dezani (Abzan Company)

We come into this match with the players tied at a game a piece. Taken down to five life before getting off a massive Seasons Past, Jon Finkel gets back a pile of ramp and creature kill, and sets up the Dark Petition/Seasons Past loop establishing a full on lock against the creature focused Dezani. Seasons Past ends up returning eight cards in two turns and sets the card up to post a Monday morning price over $10. Facing massive card advantage from Jon, Dezani extends the hand, and sets up a Top 8 including two of the most storied members of the Hall of Fame in Finkel and Luis Scott-Vargas.

Round 13: Brad Nelson (G/R Goggles) vs. Seth Manfield (Esper Control)

Seth takes Game 1, on the back of having all of Narset, Jace and Ob Nixilis in play at the same time, with just World Breaker providing pressure from Brad. Nevetheless, Brad wins out tough games two and three, to likely join a star studded Top 8.

Ruinous Path is all over this tournament, and can still be found for $1. May be a decent target if it figures prominently in the Top 8.

Round 13: LSV (B/G Aristocrats) vs. Steve Rubin (G/W Tokens)

LSV only needs to win this match to lock up a Top 8, as he is one of the few remaining 11-1 players with four rounds of Standard left. LSV mulligans Game 1, and Rubin puts Hangarback Walker back on camera, alongside Oath of Nissa and Sylvan Advocate. By turn 5, both players have a copy of Westvale Abbey in play, opening the potential for dueling demon princes.

LSV is able to establish a strong board presence, while Rubin gets Gideon, Ally of Zendikar into play and struggles to keep it there. A top decked Avacyn, cast during combat against a pair of Nantuko Husks does force LSV to bin a fair chunk of his creature force, but a Cutthroat in play drains Rubin to 13. Nevertheless, Avacyn is found unopposed in the air, and manages to take Game 1.

Collected Company decks are noted on screen as having exhibited relatively poor results this weekend. The B/G Aristocrats deck advanced 90% of it’s pilots to Day 2. Cryptolith Rite could easily settle above $10, at which point it is almost certainly a sell.

In Game 2, Rubin finds himself holding three copies of Tragic Arrogance and an Archangel Avacyn, but stuck on three lands. LSV, with enough creatures to drain Rubin out via Cutthroat/Husk earns a mid-game concession.

In Game 3, Rubin manages to hold off early pressure and set up shop behind a wall of tokens, Sylvan Advocate and Hangarback Walker protecting Nissa and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. With Lilianna, Heretical Healer in play however, an attack into Blisterpod, flips the Planeswalker and Duskwatch Recruiter leverages Cryptolith Rite to find another Husk, a Sifter and floods the board with enough creatures to drain Rubin from 19! LSV moves confidently into Top 8 position at 12-1 and virtually guarantees a strong finish for B/G Aristocrats.

Deck Tech: Andrew Brown (Esper Control)

Narset Transcendant is on screen, as a 3-of, alongside Jace, Unraveler of Secrets as finishers in this classic control build running many removal spells, sweepers (4x Languish, 1x Planar Outburst), four copies of Anticipate and two copies of Dark Petition. Narset could be a card to watch here as World Champion Seth Manfield is on this deck, and is in Top 8 contention. Narset likely to top $15 in that case.

Round 9: Brad Nelson (G/R Goggles) vs. Jon Finkel (B/G Control)

Finkel takes Game 1. In Game 2, Finkel starts his engine with Nissa, Vastwood Seer, ramping a bit to fuel his mana hungry deck. Nelson meanwhile ramps early with Nissa’s Pilgrimage into Goblin Dark Dwellers, casting Pilgrimage immediately for free. What a ramp curve! He then answers Kalitas with his first copy of Pyromancer’s Goggles. Jon casts Transgress the Mind, and finds two copies of Chandra, Flamecaller and a Tireless Tracker. Taking one, he follows up by casting Naturalize to remove the Goggles. Nelson responds with two copies of Tracker, and swings in with Goblin Dark Dwellers, past Nissa and Kalitas. Randy Buehler calls out the Finkel deck as having the better late game vs. Goggles.

Finkel’s first Season’s Past returns four cards, but several turns later, the card advantage from another Goggles on Brad’s side finds Finkel left with just an Ultimate Price and a Infinite Obliteration to answer a Den Protector, GDD and Dragonlord Atarka. With match time an issue, Finkel moves on to Game 3.

In the final game, an pair of Duress in early turns forces Brad to discard Magmatic Insight and Hedron Archive respectively, leaving Brad with limited action. Finkel fields Kalitas on Turn 4, and follows up with Read the Bones into a tapped Hissing Quagmire. Down the road Finkel gets the Dark Petition/Seasons Past loop going and Nelson extends the hand, putting Finkel at the top of the tournament, and leaving Nelson with two losses, both to Jon. Finkel is now very likely to Top 8, which should push Seasons Past over $10.

Shoota Yasooka called out as being the only player to win a single game with Esper Dragons this weekend. LSV is at 11-1 after going 2-1 in his second draft this morning with an amazing UR deck featuring three (!) copies of Fevered Visions.

Setting Up Day 2

After 8 surprising rounds on Friday, including three rounds of draft and five rounds of Standard, a mix of known and established decks have kept the tournament on it’s toes.

So far however, the top table hype has largely been about three new decks:

G/R Pyromancer’s Goggles (Ramp/Control)
G/B Aristocrats (Creature Combo)
G/B Control (Grindy Control)

At the end of Day 1, only two players stood alone at 8-0, having 3-0’d their drafts and boasting a perfect 5-0 record in Standard play. The first Friday hero was Luis Scott-Vargas, beloved Hall of Fame member and pivotal team mate on Team Channel Fireball. Both LSV and some of his teammates were on a post-Rally version of G/B Aristocrats that aimed to take advantage of the low potential to interact and disrupt found in the prevalent Bant Company and Wx Humans builds. The deck functions by dumping a pile of small creatures into play, often accelerated by the mana producing abilities of Cryptolith Rite, and quickly finds the Zulaport Cutthroat and Nantuko Husk, sacrifices the team and drains out the opponent. In longer games, Westvale Abbey provides reach by presenting a must answer flying, indestructible demon threat.

Our other 8-0 player coming into the second day of the tournament is Brad Nelson, SCG alumni and former Player of the Year, sporting an innovative GR Pyromancer’s Goggles build that leveraged cards including World Breaker and spells like Fall of the Titans, copied by Goggles to finish off opponents in style.

Pro Tour great Jon Finkel was on the GB Control deck, managing to pilot the deck to a 4-1 finish after 3-0’ing his draft. This deck leverages the much maligned SOI mythic Season’s Past, alongside Dark Petition. Combined the two cards can recursively generate massive amounts of card advantadge, providing their pilot with additional chances to cast the likes of Duress, Transgress the Mind, Ruinous Path and Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet.

Other decks in top table contention include Mardu Control, Esper Dragons, Jund and Abzan Collected Company builds, and UR Goggles.

The financial stories of the weekend thus far mostly revolve around the stampede to buy out cards from the new archetypes that were put on display on camera at the top tables on day 1.

Here are the cards that showed significant movement Friday as speculators moved in on the hot new tech.

Cryptolith Rite: $3.50 to $7 (+100%)
Dark Petition: $1 to $5 (+400%)
Seasons Past: $2 to $8 (+300%)
Pyromancer’s Goggles: $8 to $14 (+75%)
Demonic Pact: $1.50 to $2.50 (+40%)

The themes here are twofold: underrated build around rares and mythics, and to a more limited extent, rares and mythics from Origins that were previously price suppressed by the presence of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy in that set. With spikes this large, selling into the hype is the best possible advice, with only Goggles in position to top $20 if it makes another Top 8. The rest of these cards are likely to slide back 20-50% over the next week or two unless they claim a Top 8 finish on Sunday. For that to happen, their pilots will likely need to go 5-2-1 or better today.

Follow along with us as we follow along with the final 5 rounds of constructed play before the cut to Top 8 and the establishment of the new Standard metagame.