All posts by Jim Casale

Jim is a software developer and an avid blue planeswalker. He spellslings in Orlando, Florida but his old stomping grounds were in New York City. The best way to contact him is through twitter.
Jim Casale, Spoiler Coverage

Spoiler Coverage – Oath of the Gatewatch Initial Peeks

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Note: I will preface this by saying any of the cards here MAY BE FAKE.  Official spoilers for Oath of the Gatewatch has not started yet.  I will analyze cards for the possibility that they may be real.

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Well, I’ll let you take that all in.  In my personal opinion, these cards are probably real.  Kozilek has long been an expected card in Oath of the Gatewatch.  It was implied by the flavor text in Ugin’s Insight that the other Eldrazi are on Zendikar.

Ugin's Insight

Checks for Kozilek being real:

  • It has a cast trigger just like all other Eldrazi Titans.
  • It draws cards similar to the old Kozilek.
  • It is not indestructible.  Ulamog was the most durable Eldrazi the last time.
  • He has the same power and toughness as the old Kozilek (12/12).
  • His activated ability “distorts reality,” as has been implied by various story articles.
  • Aleksi Briclot is an artist frequently used for face characters (look at how many planeswalkers he has done)
  • Template is very good (menace doesn’t have reminder text, terminology is clean, abilities appear in the correct order)

Marks against Kozilek:

  • There is a lot of homage to the old Kozilek.  A convincing parody is a lot easier than a convincing new card.
  • We don’t know what that star mana means, this card’s credibility is almost entirely predicated on Wastes being real.
  • This is an incredibly good quality scan of the card.  It is extremely difficult to get this quality of card so early.
  • Most spoilers this early are text-only (from people who have seen the cards but do not have a picture of it)

My final thoughts are that you can think whatever you want about this Kozilek, but even if it is real, there are not a lot of financial implications here.  It doesn’t solve any problems decks had previously, but it looks like it would be a great, flashy mythic to sell a small, winter set.

Wastes

Wastes is an interesting one.  As I type this up, the jury is out on what this land actually even does.

Checks for Wastes being real:

  • Avoids the Barry’s Land dilemma.  This is a basic land with no basic land type.  This is likely to keep cards like Tribal Flames from scaling more.

255b

  • This is a common, not a “basic land” rarity.  It lends it to a similar scheme to “Snow lands” in Ice Age.
  • Raymond Swanland is known to do important face cards.  Most recently, he did Haven of the Spirit Dragon and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.
  • The rocky formations are similar to the rock formations on cards from other Kozilek cards.  It will be interesting to see if we get 2 more pictures with the dusty landscape (Ulamog) and the web landscape (Emrakul)
  • If this makes colorless mana, then it is the much-desired basic land that people wanted for colorless EDH decks.
  • Colorless mana as a “sixth color” was part of a design for the Great Designer search at one point in time.  We have seen a lot of mechanics from the search be used in later sets (evolve and battalion among them)

Strikes against Wastes:

  • Wizards has never done another basic land other than the five originally in Alpha.
  • Maro has stated there is a lot of rules baggage that comes with another basic land and color
  • This basic land would be incredibly parasitic and unlikely to ever be seen outside of Oath of the Gatewatch.
  • It’s a common and not a basic land rarity.  It’s likely an oversight of someone making the fake.
  • It’s the last card in the set but it’s unlikely there is only one picture.  If there is one for each brood, Kozilek’s should be 183 instead of 184 because Ulamog comes after Kozilek alphabetically.

Financial relevance is a lot higher for Wastes than Kozilek.  If this card is a common and not a basic land rarity, it will be extremely coveted.  A new basic land would be extremely desirable for many.  I would be unlikely to trade or sell any foil Wastes that I open, because there is no precedent to where its price tag may end up.

While this very early for spoilers, it has a lot of people talking, and if these cards are real, then there could be a lot of interesting interactions in Oath of the Gatewatch.  If this is another set with very parasitic mechanics, we could see some very expensive cards long-term from this block.

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Field Report: Grand Prix Atlanta

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While guest writer, Jeremy (@LengthyXemit) was not available to bring you a financial breakdown of Grand Prix Atlanta, I was there and will do my best to provide you will unbiased information from the Grand Prix.

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I arrived late on Friday and was able to stop by all of the vendors to check out buy and sell prices.  Grand Prix regular, Ogre, was buying for a rather rag-tag booth.  I’m honestly not sure who was running the booth because they didn’t have signage saying as much.  In all, there was a paltry 8 vendors (and StarCity games) buying and selling at this Grand Prix.  It was clear from the onset it was a buyer’s market.

Player Trends

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I don’t want to continue to sound like I’m singing a song of gloom and doom but if you didn’t sell your cards on Friday or very early on Saturday, you had very limited deals.  I had an Unlimited Volcanic Island I was interested on selling and decided to try to shop it around.  Most cards in Modern and Standard it’s easy to tell who you should sell to (the hotlists boards say a lot).  With Legacy or Vintage staples (especially cards on the reserve list) you can ask vendors until you get the best price.  Depending on how well they move the product they may offer you more or less on cards like Moxen (which vary widely by condition).  I went to my friends at the Coolstuff booth and got a quote a bit lower than I wanted to get that weekend.  After I went to 6 other booths without any offer, I realized it was going to be difficult to move it for top dollar.  I raced back and got my money before they could buy too many more dual lands.  The theme of the weekend is that nearly every vendor was marking down played duals and turning away sellers with more of them.  I’m not sure if this “sell off” is a reaction to StarCity’s announcement of reduced Legacy support or if this is just coinciding with the end of year sell off. StarCity games also had aggressively priced duals in their HP display case and even did a special sale on Sunday morning for a deeper discount.

Dealer Preparedness

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If you wanted to sell cards after dropping from the tournament to get some cash for side events, you would have had some bad news.  Many dealers (especially the smaller ones) ran out of cash to purchase cards midway through Saturday.  I’m not sure if they came under prepared or had nobody that could take out more but if you wanted cash your choice of the 8 vendors was very limited.  Some vendors (like Ice Imports, above) changed their hotlist boards from buy price to “credit price” which often made it look more enticing than it was.  I’m fairly certain a lot more people sold off their standard collection this weekend than was expected.  If you have a lot of standard cards you were waiting to sell off, you’re probably about to run out of time by the time this article comes out.  I would expect Grand Prix Pittsburgh to have some of the lowest buy prices of the year.

Expeditions

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Special guest appearance by Brainstorm Brewery co-host Ryan Bushard

I bought a number of expeditions this weekend and there were deals to be had if you were vigilant.  Cases were changing so often you could visit the same booth every few hours and see a different selection of expeditions.  I tried to make some slightly lower offers than sticker price but none of the vendors were really interested.  The prices were pretty comparable to TCG low on a lot of them and I managed to fill out some I was missing for about that much.  If you bought any expeditions this weekend then you probably got them at the lowest price they will ever be again.  I personally was able to pick up an expedition Cinder Glade, Watery Grave, Sacred Foundry, and Arid Mesa for a paltry $250.   I can’t stress this enough, but if you want these then get them now.  We’re done seeing them get cheaper.

Battle for Zendikar

Have you ever seen a dealer tell you they didn’t want any more of a chase Standard mythic? A lot of vendors’ cases were filled to the brim with Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and buy price a fraction of his sticker price.  I would expect an overall drop in the price of the land cycle, Gideon, and any remaining mythics or rares holding value in the set in the coming weeks.  This is not unexpected, as the usual best buy point to get into fall set cards is late December.  If you are interested in picking up cards for EDH or other more casual formats, you can expect the best prices in December until they rotate in Spring 2017.  I’m personally looking to grab my Gideons for the year around Christmas.  I’m expecting to pay about $20 per copy.

Fetch lands

I sold off my extra ones this weekend as they have been on a pretty steady decline on buy lists.  For some reason, Flipside was paying $11 for Windswept Heath (which is the highest I’ve seen it – most vendors were paying $6-9) but the rest of them were $16 or less.  I think we may actually have another “good” time to buy into them soon.  A lot of vendors are filled to the brim with lands and it’s only a matter of time before they reduce sell prices to move some inventory.  If you have some money eating a hole in your pocket it’s hard to not recommend picking up some real estate in December.

Making Friends

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Grands Prix are much more than just buying and selling cards.  Meeting new friends and forging connections makes every Grand Prix that much more fun.  Self proclaimed “King of the Nerds” – Zach (@ZachSellsMagic) is pictured here with his prize wall spoils without playing in any side events.  If you’re interested in oversized card finance Zach is your go-to for information on cards that aren’t one-ofs (like the Eternal weekend cards).

Closing Thoughts

  • I will be at GP Pittsburgh next weekend battling it out and searching the vendors.  Apparently there are 19 (!) vendors scheduled to be in attendance.  If you have any questions that you would like me to research while there, leave them below!
  • Mtg finance information will be slowing down as the lack of tournaments causes a card price drop across the board.  We’re about 4 weeks out from the lowest priced cards of the year.
  • Modern prices should start rebounding much sooner because the first Pro Tour next year (Oath of the Gatewatch) is Modern.

 

Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Future Proofing

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With the wrap up of Grand Prix Seattle / Tacoma (which is really just Tacoma, I don’t understand why Seattle is even mentioned), many people got another taste of the eternal format, Legacy.  Many players look at the huge turn out and wonder “why aren’t there more Legacy Grands Prix? Look at how many people went to this one!”  While I understand these sentiments from the very vocal Legacy community, I don’t think it’s a good place to invest your future in Magic.

With the announcements from StarCity Games (here), the number of large Magic events is being cut in 2016.  StarCity games often had an open every weekend (including some holiday weekends) but has announced at least 5 weekends off in their first of 3 seasons this year (ending April 10th).  While I won’t analyze the effect of less organized play opportunities as a whole on Magic, I will point out the breakdown of the 9 events.  There are 5 Standard events, 3 Modern events, and only 1 Legacy offering in these 4 months.  This cut back on Legacy in favor of Modern is indicative of a larger trend away from player’s non-rotating format of choice from Legacy to Modern.  There are a lot of reasons why, but it’s been in the numbers for a while.

wasteland

How the mighty have fallen, right?  Legacy cards have been heralded like blue chip stocks.  They have nowhere to go but up, right?  Wasteland is technically an uncommon and not part of the reserve list so it could be reprinted at any time.  Consumer confidence isn’t high on this card and it’s lack of Legacy play that is causing it to fall.

volcanic island rev

Even Revised Volcanic Island (arguably the most important land in the format) has seen a downward trend.  Although it is nowhere the pre-spike value of a mere $150, I can’t see this card rebounding nearly as fast as Modern investments.

volcanic island unl

Unlimited edition Volcanic Islands have faired a little bit better because they’re legal in that niche 93/94 format.  Given the fact that Volcanic Island was accidentally left off the Alpha print sheet (seriously, go ask a vendor if they have an Alpha Volcanic Island), there are far fewer choices for this dual land in this format.  If you want to invest in a dual, this is probably the best one (with scarcity being the only thing that continues to drive it’s price up).

But what about Modern cards? They’re just like Wasteland and can be reprinted.  What is happening to their price tags?  Well let’s take a look at some cards from Modern Masters that were greatly affected by the reprint.

aether vial mm arcbound ravager glimmervoid

If you spent that $300 you could have spent to buy 1 Volcanic Island on Glimmervoid or Arcbound Ravager (cards that were not reprinted in Modern Masters 2015) in June, then you could have doubled your money in October.  The constant cycle of reprints is pushing the oldest cards to the front of the top gainers page each year.

The ease of turning Standard cards into Modern cards has never been higher with each set adding a few important cards to a Modern deck.  In fact, if you own the Standard Atarka Red deck right now you also own a minimum of 16 cards for a Modern burn deck.  It’s much easier to make the transition to Modern than Legacy and it’s more easy to support Modern at the LGS level because of sustainable reprints.

That being said, I’m not trying to take a shot at Legacy as a format.  I’m just voicing my concerns for continuing to hold cards that are highly influenced by their play in Legacy.  I think there are a number of ways Legacy can evolve as a format to allow for better game play and increased interest but I don’t think this is the place to explain that.

Upgrading your Trade Binder

What can we learn from Modern Masters to apply to our portfolio at the end of this year?

fulminator

This is my go-to target for an easy double up.  As long as big mana decks like Tron and Amulet Bloom continue to see play, this will have a home.  All it takes is one weekend where Bloom or Tron win to cause a rush to buy Fulminator Mages.  The Shadowmoor Fulminator Mage hit highs of $60 before being reprinted, I can’t fathom a world where this doesn’t get back to $40 again before a reprint.

noble hierarch

In continuing my trend of picking Modern Masters 2015 creatures, I think Noble Hierarch is another all-star that needs to be looked at.  True multi-deck staples will be the quickest to recover.  Noble Hierarch also gets some points for being the mainstay of a relatively inexpensive tier 1 deck, Infect.

spellskite

You know what’s more of a horror than Spellskite’s creature type?  It’s one of few cards that has actually increased in price since it was reprinted.  It eats Kolaghan’s Command like a champ, protects anyone from Lightning Bolts to the dome, gives Tarmogoyf +2/+2, and prevents Twin and Infect from winning pretty much on the spot.  Spellskite is like the perfect passive aggressive significant other that just sits in play protecting you at the potential cost of 2 life.  Anyone that doesn’t have multiple of these will be scrambling for them when Modern events kick into high gear again.

Not everything is gold, however.  I would avoid any cards that got reprinted in both Modern Masters and Modern Masters 2015.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the trio of Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant, and Vendilion Clique show up as marquee cards in Modern Masters 2017 (or whenever the next Modern Masters set is).  Some cards that got reprinted as a mythic but are a little more niche are also probably fine pickups.  Mox Opal will be in for a price correction if Ravager and Glimmervoid get printed again.  Karn will likely see a jump if Grove of the Burnwillows is in our near future.

You know what’s a real odd one?

kor spiritdancer

Kor Spiritdancer is probably a pretty decent investment for the near future.  This card has been on an upward trend since the $30+ Daybreak Coronets got reprinted.  Boggles decks are largely a collection of draft commons and Horizon Canopy  so they are a perfect budget option for a lot of players.  At some point, something in the deck has to be worth something and this is probably it.  It’s hard to reprint since the Kor are native to Zendikar and there isn’t an enchantment theme going on like during Rise of the Eldrazi.

 

Final Thoughts

  • I really don’t want to hold onto Sensei’s Divining Tops right now.  If Legacy is ever going to evolve into a format that is enjoyable to the general player base, that card will need to be banned.  It sits on the Modern banned list for similar reasons as to why it will probably eventually get banned.
  • In my opinion, Wizards needs to figure out a way to print creatures that cost more than one and less than eight that provide exciting game play for Legacy to experience any growth.
  • Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged cards are at the highest they will be for the next 2 years.  I do not expect any kind of jump in January when Oath of the Gatewatch is released.  Sell accordingly.
  • Expect a shake-up on the Modern ban list prior to the Pro-Tour in January.  Given the heath of the format, an unban seems more likely than a ban.
  • I expect a new Kozilek to be in Oath of the Gatewatch.  If he is as game ending as Ulamog, expect a green Eldrazi ramp deck to be good.
  • I don’t expect the Commander 2015 decks to be a total bust.  If you can pick up Sword of Selves or Command Beacon in trades they should mature well.
  • Next week I will bring you some information from the vendors and artists at GP Atlanta
Jim Casale

Grinder Finance – Winding Down the Year

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With the conclusion of this three-Grands Prix weekend, we draw ever closer to the end-of -year lull in Magic.  Let’s talk about some new announcements and discuss the expected price drops in the comings weeks.

Shadows Over Innistrad

If you are a Vorthos player, you may have been expecting this.  In this article, Ugin explains to Jace that the only way to stop the Eldrazi is to seal them again.  He instructs Jace to go to Innistrad and find Sorin and bring him back to Zendikar.  Another important thing that Ugin mentions is that the Eldrazi Titans will planeswalk away when mortally threatened.  There are a few expectations we can draw from these events.

  • Shadows over Innistrad is the start of a new block.  It will be treated like a large fall set.
  • Liliana is MIA in the Zendikar storyline, I expect to see her return in Innistrad (This would be a prime place to reprint Liliana of the Veil without devotion in Standard)
  • We may see flashback return in SOI but with a Snapcaster Mage RPTQ promo he will likely not return in the set.
  • We may see an Eldrazi titan escape and attack Innistrad (Given the fact that Oath of the Gatewatch‘s set symbol looks like Kozilek’s head shards, it will probably be Emrakul)

This is all of course speculation but so far the story articles seem to be a reliable way to tell the future.

Why are we going back to Innistrad?

maro

With a real definition of what is “new” and what isn’t, I expect this to continue to in the future and be a conduit for important reprints outside of Modern Masters.  We can expect the Fall 2016 set to be a “new” plane.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s shift gears and talk about events.

What events are left in the 2015 calendar year?

Do you know how many weekends of Grands Prix are left? After this triple Grands Prix weekend, there are five left on three weekends to close out the year.  Seattle/Tacoma (Legacy), Atlanta (Sealed), and Pittsburgh (Modern) are the last three Grands Prix in North America this year.  There are two Standard GPs left, one in Brussels and one in Kobe, and that’s it!  There is over a month off and then GP Oakland opens up the year with a Standard Grand Prix before almost another month off before the next set of Grands Prix after the release of Oath of the Gatewatch.  Thats not a lot of Standard being played outside of the LGS level.

Let’s take a look at the other major circuit, the Star City Games Open Series. There are five SCG opens for the remainder of the year.  Four are Standard (Philadelphia, Kansas City, Denver, and Las Vegas) and one is Legacy (New Jersey).  That’s also not a lot of opportunities for the rest of the year to play in high level Magic events.

What does this all mean?  Well, it precludes the December price dips.  You basically have one month to sell or trade any Standard cards you will not need for the rest of the year before their price starts to drop significantly.  I already traded away my Gideon, Ally of Zendikar this weekend for Eternal playables. I would recommend dumping any Khans of Tarkir cards especially since there will be no more Standard Pro Tours to breathe new life into them before they rotate.

siege rhino price

As you can see from this graph, the post Pro Tour price tag quickly dips into a yearly low in December.  If you want to get expensive cards from Battle for Zendikar, I’d wait until then.

gideon price

Although Gideon doesn’t have a long price history, we can see he’s peaked and is already on his slow descent.  I’m just guessing here but I could see Gideon being as cheap as $20 by Christmas.  While it’s clear he will be a player in Standard for his entire lifetime, it is unwise to hold copies you’re not actively using.  But, it’s not all gloom and doom for a buyer.

shrinesanctum\

These two lands have already shown up in some decks as a way to ramp out huge Eldrazi.  It might not be a thing today but I feel like the deck is very close to breaking out.  I wouldn’t be surprised if these two lands are the mainstay of a top tier deck in Oath of the Gatewatch.  Kind of hilariously, right now that is the basis for one of the cheaper Standard decks as it doesn’t play any fetchlands, Gideons, or Jaces.  At about $0.50 per land, I wouldn’t fault you for picking up a playset of each in preparation for Kozilek in Oath of the Gatewatch.

Grand Prix Articles

Do you like the articles that Jeremy (@LengthyXemit) does for Grands Prix?  I will be lucky enough to attend the last two American Grands Prix of the year and can provide some commentary for people looking to buy cards.  Are there other questions you have for the Grand Prix process?

I took a week off due to some work-related complications but I will have the Pucatrade article for next week!  Hope you all had an awesome Halloween and I look forward to your comments below!