By: Jared Yost

This week I’d like to take a look at some of the results from the Starcitygames: States series that took place all across the USA on 4/10-4/12. While this tournament series used to be held by Wizards, we now have SCG taking up the mantle and running tournaments in a wide array of states in order to better boost the local Magic scene. Though these decks aren’t on the level of the Pro Tour it doesn’t mean that we can’t get ideas about what cards are good and bad in the formats represented. I’m going to highlight some of the extreme outliers in both Standard and Modern to see what the far reaching deck possibilities are at the moment.

Standard
Mono-Back Humans

Notable cards:

  
There aren’t a ton of financial opportunities from this deck, as Fanatic would be the only card that could possibly go up based on the results. Yet, only two copies were found in the deck. Rager has a decent chance of being in a pre-con over it’s Standard life, so that leaves Strike Leader as the penny stock of choice. I feel like it is the most important aspect of the Warriors build since they will normally play four copies main deck. Keep an eye on this guy moving forward.

U/R Control

Notable cards:

Four copies of Mindswipe were played in this first place deck. Currently a bulk rare, does this mean that the card has price potential in the future? Possibly, but I wouldn’t go too deep on this one. I’m not sure if it will make the cut in future decks (or even if this U/R Control deck is a thing) but definitely be aware that Mindswipe made things happen for someone! 

Chromanti-Flayer

Notable cards:

  
This is a pretty hilarious deck that aims to get out either a Soulflayer, Chromanticore, or bestow a Chromanticore on a Soulflayer. You might see this deck at your local FNM every so often but I’m not sure if its going to be tearing up GP’s anytime soon. Still, it could breakout at some point if more support is printed in Magic: Origins.

Mardu Aggro

Notable cards:

    
A different spin on red aggro decks, the Mardu approach aims to tackle other aggro decks by using lifegain to stabilize while otherwise smashing control decks as fast as possible before they can get anything online. I still think Crackling Doom is relevant in the metagame, so expect to see more of it over the coming months. Kolaghan’s Command is starting to make a splash in Modern as well as Standard, and though it wasn’t represented too widely at the Pro Tour I still think it has potential in Standard. 

G/W Prowess

Notable Cards:

This is a fresh new take on the format. G/W Prowess resembles U/W Heroic as the closest comparison. Myth Realized is pretty insane in this deck, and can quickly become a huge threat that is very hard to deal with. The deck plays a ton of cycling cards, like Pressure Point and Defiant Strike, in order to draw more cards to finish off the opponent as well as provide enough Prowess triggers on a turn. Definitely an interesting deck and adds credence to Ojutai Exemplars as a playable card.

Modern

Soul Sisters

Notable cards:

So I hear gaining life in a format where Burn is one of the Tier 1 decks is pretty good. Auriok Champion and Serra Ascendant are both about $20 per copy, which is a ton of money for a card that is basically only played in one Modern deck! Ascendant is a casual favorite that is absurd in Commander, which is why I can see it being so highly priced with only one printing, but it still eludes me why Auriok Champion is so pricy. Is it simply due to this deck and other casual demand? I’m not sure, but I am avoiding both of these cards (and even Ranger of Eos) due to the upcoming Modern Masters 2015 release. Archangel of Thune is the only card I could advocate picking up as she has pretty much always been at $15 and only has room to go up without a reprint. 

G/R Breach

Notable cards:

I feel like this deck has been around in Modern for a little while now, and only recently have we seen another Top 8 result with the deck. Even though that this is states and the results should be taken with a grain of salt, I believe that G/R Breach has some legs behind it and can become a Modern mainstay with a bit more support for the deck. Summoning Trap is really cheap right now, even with a potential reprint in Modern Masters 2015.

Mardu Pyro

Notable cards:

A token / control deck, this deck is an interesting spin on B/W Tokens. It allows you to play Lightning Bolt and Lightning Helix alongside Smallpox due to the nice interaction of saccing Young Pyromancer tokens. I could see this gaining steam as a Modern archetype over the years.

Cheerios

Notable cards:

Wow, this deck is crazy. I’m pretty sure the only reason this deck did so well is because nobody even knew what to do when they played against it. Welcome to fun land folks, where all you need is one Puresteel Paladin to start going crazy and comboing out your opponent with zero cost artifacts! Speculation targets from the deck include Puresteel Paladin and Retract if the deck starts gaining steam due to its fifteen minutes of fame. 

Dredgevine

Notable cards:

Though many of the targets of this deck could be reprinted, Gravecrawler seems like a nice start if you’re looking to play this deck. Vengevine decks could become more popular over the years in Modern and Gravecrawler will be essential to the strategy.

Abzan Collected Company

Notable cards:

The new take on Birthing Pod builds since the ban, I think this deck might garner more steam as better small creatures are added to Modern’s card pool. White weenie Anafenza might be a good pickup since she is also a Standard card and rather cheap, but I think we’ll need to see some more results before any definite conclusions can be drawn.

G/B Glissa

Notable cards:

A new take on the rock (G/B) archetype, this deck utilizes the recursion of Glissa in order to get Engineered Explosives and Executioner’s Capsule back again and again to control the board. Being a first strike deathtoucher is also nice, which means that almost nothing can attack through her. Certainly a deck to keep an eye on in the future. 

Miracles (yep, in Modern)

Notable cards:

A new take on Miracles for Modern, this deck doesn’t have Sensei’s Divining Top  nor Counterbalance but it can still draw plenty of cards and keep lots of open mana in order to cast the powerful Miracle spells. I don’t think this deck is going to move the market like the first time it was featured in Legacy, yet as long as we continue to get spells that Scry or manipulate the top cards of your library this deck will pop up again in the future. 

Hulk Footsteps

Notable cards:

For those of you not in the now, this deck is based on the old Flash Hulk combo in Legacy that got Flash banned from the format. Instead of Flash, this deck uses Footsteps of the Goryo in order to get the Hulk out and then start the infinite combo. The backup plan is Through the Breach in case your graveyard gets exiled or you can’t discard any Hulks from your hand. Definitely a really cool deck that could possibly see play in the future with more discard enablers like Faithless Looting entering the format.

United States of Magic

There we have it, some of the more unique decks that came out of the States weekend. Which decks did you guys see floating around? Do any of these decks actually have staying power behind them or are they just flashes in the pan? Should we expect to see any of these decks reliably at local events or even Pros be inspired to create more optimal builds?

By: Jared Yost

Based on the work I’ve done previously for Khans of Tarkir (which you’ll want to read if you have no idea what I’m talking about when I mention spread), let’s take a look at the spread on Fate Reforged singles to see if we can tell where prices are going in the future.

Comparing Retail to Buylist

Let’s take a look at the Top 25 cards by retail price from Fate Reforged.

One trend that should always be noted is that low spreads do not necessarily correlate with the higher priced fair trade cards. For example, even though Monastery Mentor has the number two retail price in the set at the moment, there are six other cards with lower spreads than the Mentor.

Warden of the First Tree has the highest spread amongst the cards in the top ten retail prices. The reason the spread is higher on Warden is because it only fits into one current archetype, Abzan Aggro, which needs to compete for demand in a field of other Standard deck possibilities. The best out for your extra Wardens is to trade them, since you’re hardly going to get half its retail value if you decide to buylist.

Now that we’ve gotten idea of what the desirable cards from the set are, let’s take a look at the list sorted by lowest to highest spread. This will better tell us which cards should be watched closely for price increases.

Ugin’s Spread

The greatest point of discussion that we can draw from this is that Ugin, the Spirit Dragon has the highest retail price, highest buylist price, and lowest spread of any card from Fate Reforged. This highest spot in all three categories tells us some important information about the card. 

First, since he is played in Standard yet only played as one or two copies in any given deck, it means that there is gigantic casual demand for the colorless spirit dragon. No wonder! Being colorless means that he can literally just be jammed into any Commander or casual deck. Got a five color slivers deck? Throw Ugin in. B/R Goblins? Ugin’s good here. Is your Roon deck lacking burn? Ugin’s your man. So even though everybody only needs one or two copies, pretty much every single Magic player out there is picking them up as opposed to cards like Whisperwood Elemental which only a subset of players would need for a deck. 

Second, any card that is below a 30% spread is usually a good indication that it will further increase in price. Am I saying that the most expensive card in Fate Reforged could possibly get more expensive? Yes. There is a very real possibility that Ugin hits $40 or more during his Standard lifetime, just due to the fact that he is a popular casual planeswalker in addition to a huge Standard bomb. 

Last, the foil price is also an interesting area of discussion. Foil Ugins are currently almost $100, with just the amount of play that he is seeing now. That is almost unheard of for a Standard legal card. I’m not sure if foil Ugin will ever come down from the $90 highs, but my gut feeling tells me that there is more room for the foil to grow over time, especially if Ugin finds a home in a Standard deck that plays more than just one or two copies. That might seem farfetched now, however good mana ramp is always right around the corner and even though Nykthos is rotating doesn’t mean that we won’t have a suitable mana ramp replacement in the fall set. 

OK, so all in all what am I saying about Ugin? Essentially, given the demand for Ugin from the casual crowd in addition to his power in Standard, I’m saying that Ugin could be slightly undervalued based on the low spread that I’m seeing from the Fate Reforged top spreads data. Don’t be surprised if you see Ugins going to $40 and beyond next year. If you want an Ugin to play with, now might be the time to pick it up. 

Rest of the Top Ten Spreads 

Soulfire Grand Master is next on the list of lowest spreads, and this is a card that I’ve been highlighting since Fate Reforged has been available. It’s been showing up in Standard pretty consistently even if it might be fairly weak in the early stages of the game. The late game is where this card shines, and if you can stick a Master and cast even one or two spells with it you’re going to come out pretty far ahead. At this point, I’m hard pressed to see Master dropping below $10 retail since the buylist is so high. Similar to Ugin, I think the price here might also be driven by casual demand – after all, lifelink and lifelink spells scream casual to me and fulfill the demand of every casual player that has a lifegain deck. 

Crux of Fate is the best black sweeper in the format for now, however even with low spread I’m not entirely convinced. Its hard to see this card going above $5 since fewer and fewer control decks are seen in Standard these days compared to aggro or midrange. Still, if you need the card for Standard it certainly won’t be going down over the next year based on the data. 

Valorous Stance, an uncommon, has the fourth lowest spread in the set. This is big news for speculators looking to pick up a cheap target. I don’t think you can go wrong with Stance – it is a very playable card in Standard in Modern, it dodged a reprint in the latest event deck, is easily splashable at only one white mana in the cost, and is just an all-around flexible spell. Will this be the next $4-$5 Stoke the Flames? Unlikely, yet I do think there is some room for growth since it is an uncommon from a small set. 

Looking for other speculation targets based on price and low spread, we have Tasigur, the Golden Fang at $7, Shaman of the Great Hunt at $7.20, and Outpost Siege at $2.90.  Of these, Tasigur is the best speculation target for both foils and nonfoils. The best time to pickup your Tasigurs will be during the summer, since Magic Origins and Modern Masters 2015 will drive the spotlight away from him and potentially lower his price a bit more. He is a Standard and Modern powerhouse, and foils will be especially good targets for future gains. 

Trade Bait 

Cards that should be traded rather than buylisted if you’re looking to get rid of extras include Warden of the First Tree, Torrent Elemental, Flamewake Phoenix, and Mastery of the Unseen. These cards are pretty good in the right deck, however have narrow use in Standard which is why their spread is much higher than other cards on the high priced retail list. 

The only card I’m on the fence about (and I guess vendors are on the fence too since the spread is almost 50%) is Brutal Hordechief. Better to play it safe than sorry, so I would recommend holding onto your copies until we know if he will be played in any future Standard decks. Remember, Hellrider was insane in the right Standard environment, and Hordechief could easily follow in his Hellrider’s path if the opportunity presents itself. Not having haste is a huge downside but at least he still creates a trigger for every creature that attacks. Definitely a card to keep a close watch on even though the spread indicates that it might be worse than it actually appears. 

Final Thoughts 

Spread can definitely be one of the more powerful tools for picking undervalued cards because vendors aren’t playing around when it comes to buylist – they’ve also done their homework to set prices where they want them, and if a buylist spread is getting smaller and smaller it usually is only a matter of time before that card’s retail price rises as well. 

This time around, I’m more inclined to think that spreads could more easily shift since this is a smaller set where prices on mythics especially tend to get a little crazy if the card is super hot and in demand from several types of players. What do you guys think? Do the spreads add up or are vendors / players missing something about the higher priced Fate Reforged Cards? Do you see spreads changing pretty drastically depending on the results coming in over the next few months?

By: Jared Yost

So we’ve got a few new promos on our hands. Historically, Wizards has used judge and World Magic Cup Qualifier (WCMQ) foils to distribute copies of cards that haven’t been printed in foil before or to add more copies of the card to the market because it is a tournament staple and needs to have a price reduction. Hopefully the Exemplar Program works out and distributes the same, if not more, copies of judge foils to the Magic masses. Because we’ve got some reprints on our hands this time that players have been clamoring about.

 For additional insight into the price of judge foils, I recommend you read the piece written by Travis Allen last year when judge foil Force of Will and the others were released. It’s a good introduction to this article and will supplement my own opinions for the crop of new judge foils.

Damnation

Numero Uno on the list of reprints, at least from a casual perspective, players finally got their wish. However, be careful what you wish for. What players really wanted was for their Damnations to be reprinted in a much more widely distributed set – say, Modern Masters 2015 or even a Commander release. Why do I suddenly get the feeling that this no longer will be the case?

For starters, the inclusion of Damnation in Modern Masters 2015 has an almost zero chance of happening. Crazier things have happened, but I would be pretty surprised if Wizards decided to reprint this in MM in addition to including it as judge foil. That’s a ton of Damnations running around and I don’t think Wizards is quite ready yet to make the price of this card nosedive to Wrath of God levels.

When considering Commander, I believe Wizards was remiss about not including it in the C14 Sworn to Darkness deck though I understand their reasoning behind it. Simply put, they didn’t want a True-Name Nemesis situation repeat. The counterargument to this is that Damnation is a not a Legacy staple, and so would be less desired overall than TNN was on its debut simply because it won’t be an auto-include in several Legacy archetypes. I understand this point of view yet I think it severely underestimates the casual demand of this card. Many, many players finally want to get a copy of Damnation that doesn’t cost $45. Based on the value of other cards in the Commander decks, it would have only made the black deck absurdly higher in value than the rest. They could have offset this by printing a higher run of black-only decks but I think Wizards wants to avoid that type of scenario in the future. Thus, we’ve been left with a judge foil compromise. 

The saddest part about this situation is that it won’t reduce the price of Damnation at all. The judge foils will be worth the same as regular copies (maybe a bit more, at least until the hype dies down) so the only bonus players are getting is that now they have a cheaper foil copy they can pick up. 

Now in the not-so-distant future, one year or more from the release date, I could actually see the price of this judge foil Damnation fall to below the price of regular copies without a non-foil reprint. The Exemplar Program could actually wind up distributing more copies of judge foils than were on the market in the past. With an overabundance comes a price drop, and the same would be true for Damnation. If the judge foil falls pretty hard, say to $25 or lower, then I feel that is a pretty good price to get in on a casual staple that will be desired by Commander players. 

Of course, everything I said above becomes completely useless if there is a Modern Masters 2014 or Commander reprint of Damnation this year. If Wizards does decide to bite the bullet on this and give us a non-foil reprint then my advice is to wait for the initial hype to die down, about three months or so, and then to pick up as many copies as you can fit into a suitcase. This card is casual gold and will always have some type of value as the black Wrath.

Dualcaster Mage and Feldon of the Third Path 

Dualcaster Mage and Feldon were both featured in the Built from Scratch C14 deck and are powerful cards in their own right that can certainly find homes outside artifact-themed Commander decks. For discussion on their non-foil counterparts, I’ll refer you to my previous week’s article. Where foils are concerned, I would imagine that the prices would probably be around $20 to $30 range with the initial hype, however will eventually take an Overwhelming Forces turn and head back down towards the $14-$16 range.

One thing I’m not considering in this price is Tiny Leaders hype. Both cards are pretty decent in the format, and Feldon could even be a Commander, so the price might swing upwards to reflect that. They could even initially be as high as $50 each, though I believe that this price is pretty unsustainable in the short term. Long term, without reprints the foil prices are sure to climb. Either way, wait a bit for the hype to die down, and if you want a foil copy of either card the judge foil will be a nice acquisition.

Ravages of War 

Now, here is a card that Cube enthusiasts and masochistic Commander players wanted to be reprinted! I think we can all agree that Wizards did this reprint right. Ravages of War was clearly a card that was maintaining an out-of-control price based purely on scarcity and not actual card utility. The price of this card is going to drop drastically due to this judge reprint. Since not everyone likes land destruction, there will be fewer players seeking out copies which means that this will further add to the price reduction. Do I think it will go below $100? Absolutely. Will it go below $50? That could actually be pretty likely. I think eventually this card will settle somewhere from $35 to $45, if I’m guessing at the demand correctly. 

If it turns out that everyone wants this card for their cube, I could see it maintaining a price of $60 or higher like the current judge foil Armageddon. Though the only reason that this ‘Geddon has a $60 price tag is because it is the only nice looking foil of the card printed and the printing happened back in 2004, eleven years ago. So again, based on casual players hating land destruction and players wanting it only ever needing one for their collection, I feel that $35 to $45 is the eventual sweet spot. However, I don’t think the price will be that low initially, as it will take time to distribute more copies of the card onto the market. So expect prices of $60+ for some time until the card saturates the market.

Wasteland 

I’m sure this came out of left field for some people. Another judge foil Wasteland reprint? Doesn’t it have two foil reprints already? Geeze, even with it being a freakin’ uncommon in Tempest the cheapest promo copies are $212 currently. Don’t fear though, this price will continue to decline once the new Wasteland hits the market. I think we’ll finally see judge foil Wastelands drop to below $100, which is a great thing for Legacy. It will help more players enter the format, as current players are able to upgrade their non-foil Wastelands, which will put more non-foils on the market for players looking to pick them up. 

Legacy considerations aside, players do also like to have Wasteland for Commander since it can help get rid of pesky non-basics that might be bugging you. There will be some demand from casual, which will help bolster the price, however it is still coming down with this reprint. 

Unfortunately, I don’t think this is going to have an effect on the price of Player’s Rewards promos since they feature the original Wasteland art and will always be the most collectable. The first judge foil printings will drop but these Player’s Rewards copies will be collectors items for the most affluent of Legacy enthusiasts. Though, at the end of the day it will be dropping other Wasteland prices across the board, so obviously that’s a good thing. 

This judge foil reprint of Wasteland makes me think that the non-foil’s price is going to be volatile again this year. If Wizards continues to reprint Wasteland in this fashion, I think that the non-foil price will only continue to go down. I’m honestly not sure if Wasteland is a good card to hold onto for value anymore. If you guys feel differently, let me know in the comments, but from what I’ve seen pricewise Wasteland is only going down.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben 

I mean, just look at that art – this is clearly one of the best pieces Wizards has commissioned for a promotional card. Players are going to want this card, and because it is being distributed at all the WCMQ events there will be plenty of foils entering the market. That pretty much means that foil Thalia is never going above $30 for the foreseeable future. 

Foil Thalias are currently around $30 per copy, which is significantly different than the non-foil price of $5. WCMQ Geist foils are only $5 less than their set foil counterparts, which means that this WCMQ Thalia foil will probably be around $25 once the dust settles. It is possible that some stores will upcharge based on the artwork and popularity of Thalia in Legacy, but I think that ultimately since it is a widely distributed foil that it will fall to slightly below the set foil’s value.

Now, the price of the non-foil is an entirely different matter. I think that non-foils at $5 are underpriced due to her popularity in Legacy, Modern, and Commander. Though this article isn’t about the non-foil counterparts, I feel that Thalia non-foils are due for a price increase soon without a reprint in a supplementary product.

Promo’ed Out 

Between Commander, Duel Decks, Modern Masters, and Promotional Foils, Wizards sure likes to reprint cards these days. Judge Foils and WCMQ foils generally are ahead of the reprint pack in terms of price, due to their print run being somewhat limited compared to the other mass released products. Being foil and sometimes having alternate art also helps their cause, since these additions help the card become more collectable and desirable. However, just like with any other financial Magic endeavour, it’s best to try and get the most for our money. I think that promos like Dualcaster Mage and Feldon will start out high and then come down significantly as more are released into the world. For these types of cards, I would advocate on the side of patience to get the most bang for your buck in terms of promotional cards that you might want for a deck or cube.