Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

Being Optimistic

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Once in a while, I like to give in to my wild-eyed dreams and enjoy some pure, unproven speculation. Today I want to tell you about a few cards that I’m thinking about right now, which have the potential to do very well if something goes right.

Earthcraft (currently $33): This is a Reserved List card that does some absolutely bonker things. It’s so good, in fact, that it’s banned in Legacy.

It’s a combo with a lot of cards, and Commander will showcase all of them. Squirrel Nest? Goblin Warrens? Sacred Mesa plus a Wild Growth land? The list goes on and on.

What needs to happen: It gets unbanned in Legacy. Worldgorger Dragon had this happen, and the resulting spike was amazing.

Wizards said at the time that it was a combo card that needed restricting. Well, yes, you can do some busted things with it but are they worse than the Dragon/Animate Dead loop? Or Splinter Twin?

I think this comes off the list eventually. No idea when it happens, but at that time, I think you’ll see this card double up immediately and then settle down at $50. A lot of the supply on this has been soaked up by Commander, and I’m not sure how many of those players would cash in a spiking card that will never be reprinted.

Eye of Ugin: (currently $10,$13 for nonfoils, and $20, $40, $80 for foil versions)

So this was hot hot HOT when ‘Eldrazi Winter’ started, and the Expeditions were near $200. This has three printings and the pack foil is twice the price of the Modern Masters version, due to the rarity shift.

Eye is too good for Modern. It is amazing early and late, and that was the criteria used to ban Deathrite Shaman.

What needs to happen: Legacy Eldrazi needs to prove itself as a consistent player.

Legacy has four lands that could produce two colorless for Eldrazi: Eye, Temple, City of Traitors, and Ancient Tomb. The broken starts in Modern could be a more regular occurrence and Eye is the only one that powers stuff out early and then searches up more to do if a late game is reached.

If that happens, the Expedition versions will pop. Not to their previous heights, but $140 is in range.

I’m not sure at what point people who bought at more than $150 will give in and cash out, but there’s a chance that those collectors/investors just wait it out and that might keep some copies out of circulation.
Berserk (about $100 for Unlimited or FtV, $150 for Beta and $350 for Alpha)

There was a not-small amount of surprise for me. I had thought this was a Reserved List card, but no, it’s legal. They could put it in Standard tomorrow.

They have come close, though. Cards can grant advantage but there’s nothing this good this cheap. Temur Battle Rage can do some sick things but Berserk is the best pump spell ever, beating out Wildsize.

What needs to happen: Old School (93/94, if you’re feeling sassy) needs to grow even more.

Old School Magic is a fun format, and if it continues to grow, Berserk is only one of the cards that’s going to go up significantly. It’s also a fantastic Cube card and the potential for fun is there in Commander. Double up damage on someone else’s creature and then it’s no longer a problem.

But for the card to take off, and not just creep upward, it’s got to gain traction in a larger way. Lots of people like it, but this needs to be long term and consistent. It’s not in major events yet but if side events at GPs and such become more commonplace, then the sky is the limit.

Well, not the sky, really, more like $150 for the Unlimited and the From the Vault versions. I know some people are hellbent on no white borders but the biggest growth is found when you have a lower buy-in.

I don’t think that 93/94 is going to go the way of Tiny Leaders, but it does need to be bigger than Duel Commander. In favor of it, is that the people who care put a lot of time and energy and piles of money into this endeavor. Someone who works that hard for a format is not going to abandon it easily, and that’s the spirit we want in order to have a format grow and prosper.

Casual Fridays

BFZ and OGW pickups

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Last week I looked at stuff I liked as we head into the home stretch of this set of three blocks.

This week, I want to look at Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch, since we are at the halfway point for those sets. They will rotate out of Standard in about nine months, a schedule I don’t think I’m used to yet.

Ob Nixilis Reignited ($8): I have always loved this set of abilities. Draw a card, kill a creature, grind out a win with the ultimate. It’s seeing light amounts of play and that bodes well. People are aware of the card, and while it’s not a four-of, it’s an important inclusion in superfriends decks that want to jam planeswalker after planeswalker.

I can see this spiking to $15 if a list makes good use of it, and if GW tokens takes a big hit at rotation this should do well. Also on my radar is that if there’s a new Tamiyo coming in Eldritch Moon, then that’s one more option for an Esper control deck. Jace, Ob, Sorin, Gideon…that’s a powerful lineup and there’s no mass planeswalker removal.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger ($14): there are not many decks in Standard making use of this card, but he is definitely the newest tech in big-mana Tron and Ramp decks in Modern.

Even if he gets exiled somehow, casting Ulamog is a three-for-one guaranteed. Getting rid of two problems right now is also why this version of Ulamog is likely better than the original when it comes to Commander and Cube. It lacks the anti-reanimation clause of the Gyre but the 20 card exile is terrifying too. Seeing this get to $20 before the end of the year seems like a given, and $25 would be possible too.

From Beyond ($0.80): I love this as a long-term hold. This is several abilities all in one, all of which are useful. It’s a free 1/1 each turn. It’s a source of mana acceleration. It can even tutor for something big that you want to go find. This has great potential as a long-term casual hold, and you can get them at near-bulk prices.

Bring to Light ($0.81/$5.50 foil/$10 prerelease): I’m listing the foil prices here because the casual demand for this is much higher than the Standard/Modern demand. Normally, I’d expect to see this as about a $3 foil, as in the cases of Akoum Firebird or Shrine of the Forsaken Gods. The price is much more than that, and especially the prerelease foil, which is a real outlier. I like the card as a very flexible sorcery, with the potential to get very good in Modern. It’s also got a lot of potential as a casual card with a very low buy-in, and you can go after foils if you’re feeling it.

Thought-Knot Seer ($7), Reality Smasher ($4): So these Eldrazi and some others (one moment) have come down from their incredible showing at the Pro Tour, so good they got Eye of Ugin banned in Modern. They are so good so fast that they brought Simian Spirit Guide along for the ride, and they have really come down in price. These are small-set rares, and as I’m going to talk about next week, the Eldrazi are starting to be a menace in Legacy.

Eldrazi Mimic ($1), Matter Reshaper ($2): These are seeing less play than the two above, but when you’re going all-in on the colorless threats, they are incredible. Both of these are low-cost to get now and represent great profit going forward.

Eldrazi Displacer ($4.50): This card is one of the best flicker effects we’ve seen in some time. It’s good for you, allowing re-use of your own abilities. It’s bad for them, tapping blockers. It was a four-of in the winning Death and Taxes deck last weekend at an SCG Classic event. It’s for real. It’s also too cheap for the amount of play it’s going to see as we get farther and farther away from opening packs with these in them.

Linvala, the Preserver ($3.50): This is everything a control deck desires. She can gain you life and require two cards to deal with. She reminds me a lot of Timely Reinforcements, though not as easy to cast. She’s a small-set mythic, though, and we have a year for her to get used effectively. A caveat, though: as a legendary creature, she’s unlikely to be run as a four-of.
Goblin Dark-Dwellers ($3): With every spell that gets printed, this card gets better. What really makes it terrifying is the variety of threats that can be presented. Removal spells, discard spells, reanimation spells, you name it, all on a creature of decent size. I would love to see this played alongside Blightning, for instance, but Kolaghan’s Command is awesome too.

Casual Fridays

Origins and Dragons pickups

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It’s true confession time: I don’t like to do what everyone else is doing. I’m of the mindset that I prefer to not be with the crowd, and that’s both good and bad about myself. It’s a tendency that often serves me well in terms of Magic finance, because if I’m thinking about things that others aren’t, then there’s the potential for adding value.

This weekend, everyone is going to be agog about Eternal Masters landing and what will happen to those prices. My predictions from the last couple weeks feel okay, and at first blush there might be more of this printed than expected, so prices will be more likely to be low.

We are also about a month away from Eldritch Moon prereleases, so previews and spoilers will be rolling out soon, and that has lots of other people thinking about what will be good when that releases. (And if I hear ‘where Emrakul’ one more time…)

So what am I thinking about? The two other blocks, Dragons of Tarkir/Magic Origins and Battle for Zendikar/Oath of the Gatewatch. The former is going to rotate in about four months, when Kaladesh comes out, and the latter still has a year of legality left in Standard.

Today I want to cover the rotating sets, and next week I’ll give you my ideas on the still-legal ones.

Dragons of Tarkir

Collected Company (now $23)

A lot of Modern decks that used to use Birthing Pod have seemed to migrate over to this, and since it can hit any of the cards for the Melira infinite life combo, it’s a natural fit. The decks that play this almost never have less than a full playset, but there’s a lot of playsets out there. Don’t forget that this was in the Magic Origins Clash Pack, which also had a Dromoka’s Command and a Windswept Heath.

I have a suspicion that this loses a couple of dollars around the time of rotation but not much, and it’s so good in Modern that it’ll start growing before you know it.

September 2016: $17

September 2017: $25

 

Kolaghan’s Command ($13)

This is a card that Modern was made for. This plus Snapcaster makes Grixis a real and powerful deck choice, especially as a maindeck answer to Spellskite and other artifacts. It’s relatively cheap and very flexible, and it’s nearly impossible not to get two cards’ worth of value out of it. I’ve already made good money on this card, but what I can’t get past is that this is already all over Modern and Legacy, and barely there in Standard.

I think that this Command is going to stay stable through rotation and stays that way for some time. Picking them up won’t get you insane value now, but it will be stable and safe.

September 2016: $15

September 2017: $20

 

Atarka’s Command ($8)

There’s a lot of flavors of burn decks in Legacy and Modern. Most of them are no longer straight red, since adding white and/or green gives you extra angles of attack and better sideboard tools. This card can really pile the damage on in builds with multiple creatures, and again, this is a card already seeing a lot more play in non-rotating formats. I think that this starts trending upward very soon, but it’ll plateau because Naya isn’t the default deck.

September 2016: $10

September 2017: $13

 

Sarkhan Unbroken ($5)

The $5 planeswalker rule applies here. This also shows how prohibitive a mana cost can be from format to format, because Jund players were all over Broodmate Dragon, yet Sarkhan, who can make two tokens, saw zero love. I love picking these up now and just waiting. The growth won’t ever be sudden, but it will be there.

September 2016: $6

September 2017: $8

 

Risen Executioner ($4)

This is an expensive speculation target, but hear me out. It’s a mythic lord for Zombies, one of the top tribes for people to play casually. It’s also got built-in recursion, something that everyone enjoys. It’s $4 now out of pure casual appeal, and that is a flashing light signaling long-term growth to me.

I am not as high on the foils, but those are likely to be at least stable going forward.

September 2016: $6

September 2017: $10

 

Magic Origins

Pyromancer’s Goggles ($8)

This is another card that I’ve predicted would spike and made money from, and it’s almost back to those previous levels. It’s pure gold in casual settings, one of the best cards you could have in a Commander deck that likes casting red/multicolored spells. I think this is going to fall down a few dollars, and that’s when I’m going to jump in on them and just wait. Again.

September 2016: $4

September 2017: $6

 

Hangarback Walker ($5.50)

Oh how the mighty have fallen. It’s very hard for this card to not get value just by existing, though the presence of Path to Exile keeps it from taking over Modern. This was in the Event Deck, and that’s an extra few copies, but it’s a fantastic card in Affinity, and thatmight be enough to have it keep value.

I’m sad to say it’s not done falling, but I do feel it’s good enough to still see play, and that will buoy and maintain the price.

September 2016:$5

September 2017: $7

 

Alhammarret’s Archive ($5)

There’s no getting around it: This is seeing no Standard play, and this price is purely doe to casual appeal. As with the Executioner, I want to listen to what the trends are telling me.In this case, they are saying for me to spend $20 or $40 on spare copies, put them in bulk, and just wait.

September 2016: $6

September 2017: $9

Casual Fridays

Eternal Masters: The Rares

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Here’s the list of rares in Modern Masters 2015 that are currently worth the MSRP of a pack:
Noble Hierarch $47
Spellskite $33
Fulminator Mage $29
Leyline of Sanctity $15
…and that’s it. Only four rares worth the retail of $10, and that doesn’t account for any markup you paid along the way.

I am pretty sure that there will be a similar trajectory for the rares of Eternal Masters, though some of the foils will have amazingly high prices. I’m expecting low things, much more in line with Modern Masters 2015: a few chase mythics, a little value at rare, and a lot of $5 and under cards.

I’m not going to go over every card, just the ones that I think will be near, at, or above the $10 mark by the time we get to Eldritch Moon.
Enlightened Tutor – Currently, this is solidly at $16 for the two nonfoil versions. Supply is tiny, though, and a lot of these are going to get put into Cubes and decks. I think this ends up just about $10.

Karmic Guide – The original is at $6, the Commander 2013 version is $3 and even the Judge Foil is barely at $20. This is the nail in the coffin, and will settle around $2.

Mother of Runes – Three printings keep this between $3 and $5, and I see no reason for that to change. The foils on this are interesting, as this art is more appealing than the other two foils, so we may see $25 or more on the foils.

Mystical Tutor – This is $8 with a From the Vault lurking at $25. It won’t be higher than $10, but it will be more than $5. The foils will easily be $25 or more, though, as people will get rid of the FtV foil and the unusual look those have.

Serendib Efreet – It’s never been good enough, though the stats alone are impressive. It’s a 3 /4 flyer for a mere three mana! It’ll be a dollar rare, unfortunately.

Ichorid – I’m inclined to say this takes a dive. Currently at $11, I’m pretty sure it’ll fall to $6 or lower. It’s just not popular enough. It’s possible that people open this and want to build a Dredge/Bridge from Below deck, but I highly doubt it.

Sinkhole – Let’s get this out of the way: It’s not going to stay $30. This was a judge foil in 2010, and while it was a common, it was last printed in Unlimited. I would be fascinated to know if there were more Judge versions out there than Alpha and Beta ones. I suspect it’s close, though I don’t know for sure. This is best friends with Hymn to Tourach, but as a rare, I think this is going to end up very close to $10 out of pure price memory.

Toxic Deluge – It’s played rarely but it was nudging up to $20 before the reprint news cut it to $10. I think it falls all the way to $5, and at that point, it’s intriguing as a pickup.

Gamble – There are enough decks that want this to keep the price high, though I feel it will fall to $15 or so. Losing half of its value is still painful. Foils on this could be quite silly, though, because a lot of Commander decks will love it.

Sulfuric Vortex – This will put all the versions to bulk, though the foils might make it to $5.

Heritage Druid – Elf players need to brace themselves, because this is going to drop like a rock. Three dollars, but the foil will be about $15.

Regal Force – This is a surprisingly awesome card in a range of creature decks, which you might not expect for its stats. Financially, though, this is going to be a $5-$7 card with the foils about $20.

Shardless Agent – The buylist on this has already dropped by $5 in the last couple weeks, and that’s a very bad sign for anyone who has these in stock. Once pushing $25, these will end at about $10.

Vindicate – That’s a scary graph for a card, gradual declines over the last couple of years and now this. It’s a universal answer, though, and you can never have enough of those. I want it to be higher, but this won’t be above $10.

Vindicate

Isochron Scepter – Once, this was expensive and amazing with split cards, but it’s gotten supplemental products here and there and this will put it to $2.

Sensei’s Divining Top – The top has dropped nearly $10 since being spoiled and that’s a very telling indicator. I personally can’t stand people running this in Commander, as it is incremental advantage in a battlecruiser format, and it just takes so long! I expect this to settle at about $10, but I’m prepared for foils to carry a big multiplier, likely to about $40-$50.

Maze of Ith – I love to think about cards where the FTV version is less expensive than the original. Is it the art? The foiling process? Maybe it’s amazing in 93-94? Thirty dollars is not where it’s going to stay, but I do think we are going to see some odd price disconnects with this. The Eternal Masters version will likely settle between $10-$15.

Mishra’s Factory – First off, I think your original four seasons versions are perfectly safe. Every other version is going to be just above bulk.

Wasteland – A Tempest uncommon, a Judge Foil, a Player Reward, a Zendikar Expedition, and now this. It’s had that many extra printings and I think all the specials are relatively safe. They will feel a bump, but the Tempest version has lost more than $20 so far and it’s going to fall farther. I think it ends up about $30, and that’s a price I’m going to think about buying a few at.