By: Cliff Daigle

Hangarback Walker, Whisperwood Elemental, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Evolutionary Leap, Warden of the First Tree, Llanowar Wastes.

These are the latest cards of value to be put into an Event Deck, and the latest to take a hit straight to the value as a result. In some cases, there was an immediate loss of value as people panic-sold and stores changed their listed prices, for the buying and the selling of the card.

However, I’m here to make the case that being reprinted this way is not as awful as you might think, and actually represents an opportunity.

Let’s start with the precedent and the flag bearer for preconstructed deck inclusions: Umezawa’s Jitte.

For the longest time, before the price graph shows, this was rock-steady at $20. During its time in Standard, Extended, and after that in Legacy, this has been one of the best equipment ever. (I’ll listen if you want to talk about the Swords or Batterskull, but really, this would get my vote.) Why was such a good card only $20? The preconstructed deck Rats’ Nest. Simply having the card available in a $20 precon meant that there was a price ceiling, even as there was a very small chance of finding it at that price. Even now, with a Grand Prix promo out there, it’s got a relatively low price for a card this old and this good, due to price memory from being in the deck.

This principle applies in the modern day: being in the Event Deck lowers the price briefly but can’t add too much quantity.

How about an example of Wizards trying, I mean REALLY trying, to make a card accessible through Event Deck printings?

Thragtusk was a lowly Core Set rare. Granted, that was Magic 2013, presumed to be a smaller print run than Magic Origins, and that was also before a lot of current players started, but it was THE card to have against blue decks. Or aggressive decks. Or removal-heavy decks. Or anything, really. It’s value coming, going, and in between. Imagine Abzan or other Den Protector decks with this card!

Wizards wanted everyone to have as many Thragtusks as they wanted. To this end, on top of the original supply, this was added to three Event decks in a row: M13, Return to Ravnica, and Gatecrash. For a card that was seeing heavy Standard play, that was the only way for the price to get down to what Wizards felt was a reasonable one. Look at the beginning of the chart and that $25 tag. It still took three additional printings to lower it to $5, and by then, rotation was imminent, which likely did more for lowering the price.

Thragtusk was at $25 and started going down immediately. It never stabilized because of the repeated printings during its year in Standard. Other cards have not gotten the same treatment.
Let’s look at Godless Shrine.

Notice that blip around June 2013? In early May, the Dragon’s Maze Event Deck was spoiled and there was one Godless Shrine in the deck, so it took a hit. The downward trend lasted for about a month, and then it ticked back upward. The card was good enough that while it didn’t rebound completely, it held much of its value.

Same thing with Hallowed Fountain, a one-of in the Theros Event Deck.

The Clash Pack is another method of increasing quantity of a card, as evidenced by Courser of Kruphix:

See that dip in the middle? Right before it made it to $25? That’s the Clash Pack copies hitting the market, and in the flood the price fell hard…and then came back by the time the new set was released.

I’m not trying to make the statement that all the cards given an auxiliary printing will eventually regain their value. That’s not true at all, and there’s a long list of $5 or less rares that got reprinted and struggled to break $1 after the re-release. That’s likely the fate in store for Evolutionary Leap, Warden of the First Tree, and Llanowar Wastes.

What I am saying is that the better cards, the already-expensive cards, those are very likely to bounce back. I’m specifically looking at Hangarback Walker, Tasigur, the Golden Fang, and Whisperwood Elemental.

Hangarback has lost a couple of dollars in the last weeks since the announcement, and for a card seeing as much play as it is, that’s a very good sign for the card and our opportunity to gain value from it. I’m hoping that it goes down to $10 once the decks are on sale, because there’s still a whole year for it to go back up, and that doesn’t even count the appeal outside of Standard.

The current dip means this is the time to buy in, even if it doesn’t go below $14. It’ll be $20 or more by Valentine’s Day, and that’s value we can use.

Tasigur is in an interesting spot. Many of my peers here are preaching the foils, and I’m on board. I also think he’s good enough to hold a $10 price tag in a year when he rotates, because he’s big and easy to cast and has a great ability in older formats. It’s fascinating how on the day of announcement, he fell $2, but the demand is there.

This principle also applies to the Clash Packs, and to some extent the Commander precons. The cards that were expensive stays that way, and will likely recover most of their price. Let’s use Collected Company as an example:

See that diagonal slide in July? The Clash Pack decklist was spoiled on July 9th of this year. We still have a lot of time for this to creep back up, especially because that particular card is already seeing Modern play in a variety of decks.

So in closing, I want you to see reprints as opportunities. I’m still sitting on two playsets of Hangarback, and I’m giving serious consideration to a third.as the playset price creeps to $50 on eBay. If there’s other examples of cards resisting the reprint effect, list them in the comments!

---

 

By: Cliff Daigle

Every so often, I like to go back and look at my old predictions and laugh at what I got wrong.

Today, though, I want to address two big misses from just about everyone who did an early review of Magic Origins: Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Hangarback Walker.

Both of these cards have experienced tremendous growth and are popping up in all the formats. Hangarback is seeing play in Vintage! Moxes and Black Lotus have been used to cast this!

So where did we go wrong? What lessons can we learn? First, I want to go over some reviews of these two cards and see what’s going on.

Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy

Here’s a review, and another, and another.

People recognized right away that looting is good and often made the Snapcaster Mage comparison.

A good card, a good mythic planeswalker, can have a strong price. Seeing $20 or $30 is not mindblowing in the current Standard environment. If it sees play in Modern or Vintage, then it’ll depend on how many get played and in how many decks. For example, Tasigur, the Golden Fang is popping up in those formats, but never as a four-of and not in every deck.

People were high on Jace, making predictions about Jace being $30, even $40. I certainly didn’t see these lofty heights coming from the fifth Jace, and it’s been a long time since there was a Standard card at more than $50. In case you missed it, Kid Jace is within $5 of Jace, banned in Modern.

Once the Prodigy started popping up in Modern and Legacy decks, that’s the signal to get on board the train. Interestingly, the foil price is just $15 more than the nonfoil, a sign that it’s not casual demand driving the price. If Jace stays big in the two older formats, expect that foil to go up big soon.

What made Jace worth playing all across formats? Where did we mess up? What traits can we look for in the future?

First of all, he’s a blue card. Blue has been the best color in Magic for a while, especially in the older, more powerful formats. It’s no coincidence that blue cards are easily assimilated into more expensive formats. Being blue increases the chance of play there and we should have seen that coming.

Also important: the early source of card advantage. Looting isn’t card advantage, though improving your hand is a great ability. What does give you extra cards is the flashback ability, something we already knew is good and expensive, thanks to Snapcaster Mage.

Finally, because of how easily Jace, Telepath Unbound can be used up, the ease of flipping into planeswalker mode, and the low casting cost, we should have seen that this was going to be a four-of all over the place. Maybe Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded scared us away from two-mana planeswalkers?

Let’s look at the other surprise: Hangarback Walker.

One review, two review, and three’s a charm.

Yes, that last piece is where I called Hangarback a card that needed a little help to be better than bulk. Mea maxima culpa.

There was a lot of speculation about how good this could be, but it wasn’t predicted to be an auto-include, a card you have to plan not to play. It also wasn’t foretold to make waves in older formats, and definitely wasn’t a called shot to hit nearly $20 as a rare.

So what did we miss?

Hangarback isn’t blue as Jace is, but it’s good both early and late. I’ve been surprised at how willing assorted decks are to play this on turn two and grow it as needed. Abzan Charm is all over the place, so keeping the power at two is important. The key is that you have the flexibility to do what’s needed at the time, and that flexibility has turned out to be very good indeed.

The card advantage is very much a factor here too, since you need exile removal to deal with this on a one-for-one basis. Especially with Bile Blight gone, those Thopters are always going to be buzzing around. It’s very easy to be stymied about attacking into an untapped Hangarback, because you’re going to take a swarm of hits on the next turn.

This level of card advantage is what draws in Modern players and has the Construct popping up in Vintage lists. Vintage! The land of untapping Time Vault, or turn one wins with Belcher! That’s how powerful this level of redundancy is.

Looking back, we should have seen the parallel to Thragtusk. Thragtusk did it all, and did it in one of the most creature-hostile environments. You couldn’t bounce it for value, it was designed to beat Standard Delver decks playing Vapor Snag, and it was printed multiple times to make sure the price stayed accessible. Hangarback has already been announced in an Event Deck and there will be zero hesitation to further increase the supply.

That risk of reprinting is another factor in Jace’s price: double-faced cards are notoriously hard to make and integrate into products. The uncut sheets of the five double-faced cards from Magic Origins show all the languages, because the integration just couldn’t happen for some engineering reason. So Jace, despite the price, is likely a safer pick.

I hope you think about these things the next time you’re evaluating what to buy. I always try to learn from my mistakes. What other factors do you think played into these two cards increasing as they have since the set’s release? Let me know in the comments what I missed.

---

 

By: Cliff Daigle

My second opponent at the prerelease last weekend (we both lost in the first round) said to me, “It doesn’t matter if I win a few packs, because I already won!” and then he showed me the Steam Vents he’d opened.

After the match, he asked me if I wanted to buy the Expeditions land off of him. I declined, and I said to him, “I think the price is going to come down in a few weeks.”

He said, “Maybe, but I don’t know what to do with it.”

Perhaps this is you. You opened an Expeditions land and now you’re asking, “Now what?”

Well, I’m here to walk you through your choices. I am not a professional seller, I am not affiliated with any store, and my views reflect only my experiences.

Option #1: Keep it!

This is the most straightforward of your choices. Pick a deck, or choose a binder, and leave it there. Maybe you keep it in the back page of your binder just to show off, maybe you add it to a Commander deck, but whatever your preference is, the card is in your possession.

This is also the choice that will probably give you the best return on the value. If you leave it in there for a year, it’s going to be worth more than it is now.

Would I do it: Maybe. I have one all-foil Commander deck, and it doesn’t have a Scalding Tarn or Polluted Delta…but those are among the most expensive cards from Expeditions. If I opened one of those…yeah, I’d keep it.

 

Option #2: Trade it!

This sounds like an appealing idea to a lot of people, to give up this one single card and get so much in return! I could easily see someone emptying out their binder in order to get their hands on the Expeditions land they want so very badly, not least because you don’t often find people with high-end cards for trade.

It’s worth saying that if you’re going to trade this, be aggressive in what you’re asking for, especially if you’re trading a fetch land or shock land. While it seems these aren’t as super-rare as originally anticipated, they are still pretty hard to find and you shouldn’t be shy if you’re going to part with yours. Grab everything of theirs you want, negotiate a little, and if they don’t want to trade the things you want, start to walk away. Most of the time, they will come around.

If there’s no trading partner available at your store, there’s always online trading. Deckbox is my preferred method, but if you are just starting you’ll be asked to send your cards first and I know that can be intimidating at the beginning, especially if you’re trying to start with a card worth more than $100.

Trading the card on PucaTrade is a strong option. This is the way to get all the points you’ll need for a while, or jump you up to the big cards you desire. Think of it as getting 100% of the card’s value in store credit.

Would I do it: Yes. I have never been a heavy PucaTrade user, mainly because I don’t have a lot of time to watch and jump in when someone wants a card I have. I would be content to gain a stack of PucaPoints or spend a couple of days haggling on Deckbox until I got exactly what I wanted.

 

Option #3: Sell it!

There’s a simplicity in selling your Expeditions land to whichever online card shop you like, because you’ll get the cash or credit right away. No haggling, no discussion, just click, pack, send. If you want cash this may or may not be the best option, since right now lots of stores have lots of prices set up. I would expect that the prices will stabilize this week as stores begin opening their product.

As ever, though, doing the simple thing is going to cost you some. Typically, stores will give you about half the retail price of a card in cash. Most big stores will then add a percentage to it and give you more in store credit, to avoid paying cash.

If you’re not used to dealing with expensive cards or selling things yourself, there’s an ease and a comfort in dealing with the store of your choice. Just understand that there’s a real cost.

Selling the card via Facebook, Twitter, or other social media is an option, but carries its own set of risks.

eBay might be the best option if you want to convert your card to cash. There will be fees from eBay and from PayPal, and so you should expect to pay 10-20% of the final sale value. If you’ve sold things on eBay before, you don’t need me to tell you about it. If you haven’t, understand that eBay almost always sides with the buyer in disputes, so there’s always the chance you could get burned as the seller if you’re unfamiliar with the process. Other buyers will shy away from someone with low feedback.

It’s my understanding that TCGPlayer isn’t that much better than eBay when it comes to small amounts of cards, but I’ve never sold there and I’ll let people share their experiences in the comments.

Would I do it: Probably not. Turning a card into cash usually means that I’ll spend it on other things that my family needs. Plus, I don’t like losing the percentages of a sale, so I’d stick with trading.

Let’s use an example: Arid Mesa.

Here at MTGPrice, it’s listed at $150, because that’s about what it’s going for on eBay. Card shops aren’t allowed to sell them until today and so there’s a lot of volatility.

Looking at the sold items, that seems like a good average. There’s been some lower offers accepted, some bids aren’t too much above or below that number. Remember, though, that you’d be looking at about $20-$25 in fees.

TCGPlayer has these in that same range, about $165. Notable that their data shows these as pre-selling for more than $200 earlier this week! As of this writing, though, the lowest price on a NM copy is $145, and with the downward trend, you could probably undersell that too.

Selling to stores appears to be an even worse play, with buylists not even breaking $100, and most between $80-$90. Even with store credit, you’d be hard-pressed to break $120 at a store.

PucaTrade is by far the most profitable option. You’d get 17150 points, the equivalent of $171.50 worth of cards. Puca is a surprisingly good place to get high-end cards, and you’d be well on your way.

I’m putting this up for people that aren’t sure what to do with their one Expeditions card, especially if you have no interest in trying to get a full playset. I welcome discussion about the best way to move one of these, along with your experiences.

---

 

By: Cliff Daigle

So if you’ve been reading things from MTGPrice about the doom and gloom of Battle for Zendikar. You might think this is the worst set ever. Such low power, such cheap cards due to Expeditions, such a waste of time.

I don’t agree.

I feel that there are going to be some cards which will go up during their time in Standard. It’s not going to be the same sort of price graph as other cards, because sets now have 18 months in the format, not 24. Here’s perhaps the best example from the last couple of years, our best-case scenario: Hero’s Downfall.

This was a rare from the most-opened set ever, at the time. There are a lot of things to love about this graph, especially the two spikes. One was at the beginning propelling it to $17 as this card is discovered to be good enough to warrant play as a four-of in any black deck, and one was about a year later, a spike to about $12, as Abzan became the most popular deck in the format.

I don’t think any of Battle for Zendikar has this level of immediate appeal, at least not in the rares. Downfall is fast and universal, and is an excellent card to have alongside Thoughtseize. Having Downfall in your deck means that you can really sculpt what threats you don’t mind your opponent having when you cast an early Thoughtseize, and the two hold hands very well.

The second spike is the most intriguing to me. A year later, after a rotation and some new cards, there was a new surge of interest in the card. I want to think about that. I want to have a few copies of cards that are good enough to see an increase from $1 to $5, give or take.

Here are the cards I think could follow this path, and increase when the next block (or the one after) comes out:

 

Brutal Expulsion – As others have noted, it’s a darn shame that this doesn’t work with Pyromancer’s Goggles. It would possibly be too good at that point, though. It’s a weird combination of Remand and Cryptic Command, cards that have seen a lot of play, and when this gets cheap I’ll be looking to get my copies.

 

March from the Tomb – Eight mana’s worth of allies is a wonderful number, especially with haste and lifelink as options for my allies. This seems like a great way to win games out of nowhere, and come back from board wipes easily. Of note is that changelings will work very well with this card in Commander, making foils a very intriguing target.

 

Noyan Dar, Roil Shaper – For every Ponder, a land becomes a 3/3 haste, or that same land gets an extra three counters. This is another one with combo potential, and it will certainly be a cheap pickup soon.

 

Painful Truths – Others have discussed this in more detail, but three mana to draw three and lose three life is a pretty good deal. I won’t expect big things out of it, but I’m also not looking to spend too much on it.

 

Planar Outburst – I feel pretty good about this, especially when End Hostilities rotates out. Wrathing plus getting a creature is a pretty good deal, just ask anyone who’s played Martial Coup. It’ll never be a super expensive card, but the potential for growth is there.

 

Ruinous Path – Yes, I know it’s not Downfall. It’s a sorcery. It’s been established that it is worse than Downfall. That doesn’t mean it’s not among the best of the options. Removal is getting worse, as you’ve likely noticed. Wizards doesn’t want unconditional two-mana removal, unless perhaps it’s two colors. It would be stronger as an instant but I think this will be the best you can do.

 

Scatter to the Winds – I can’t give credit because I don’t remember who it is that said in a control deck, you don’t want cards that only win. You want cards that will keep you at parity, and then eventually pull ahead and win. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver is one example, as it’ll get you a blocker or two and eventually pull too far ahead, all from one card. This is another example. It’s a counterspell at the new cost for such, 1UU, but late game when you’re both playing off the top it’s an answer AND it’s a new threat. I think this has potential in a longer-term scenario.

 

Wasteland Strangler – I don’t think we have all the tools to trigger this consistently on turn three yet. I think that the new set will give us one or two ways to do that and then this becomes phenomenal. Imagine this alongside a Thoughtseize variant, albeit one that doesn’t suck. Perhaps that says more about how overpowered Thoughtseize is? I don’t like having to rely on one- or two-drop creatures to Ingest in order to power this up, but there’s going to be people who try.

 

A bonus: Beastcaller Savant (Foil)

I don’t know what the combo will be. I really don’t. But I think that a hasty mana creature in Modern has real potential. I will be looking to pick up a few foils cheap.

---