By: Cliff Daigle

For many people, there’s no point or value in dealing with foils. They are just shiny versions of a card that is needed for a deck. If you don’t care, though, you’re missing out on a financial opportunity, especially for the casual markets.

Interestingly, foils were introduced before Cubing was invented, and before EDH was formalized…and those formats have really driven foil prices up.

Because two of the major casual formats require only one of a given card, the thinking is that you might as well make it foil. Foiling out a deck or a Cube is an undertaking, a project that people feel passionate about. Combine those factors, add a touch of collector fever, and you get casual cards that are FAR more valuable in foil than regular.

There is another factor at play when it comes to acquiring foils as long-term investments: reprints. The only time that foils were done in large amounts was the Premium Deck Series, and the all-foil Alara packs, ideas that won’t be used again. This means that reprints will either be nonfoil, judge foils, or in new art when they are put into boosters again.

Your investment in foils will be rather safe…and might go up a lot!

The Fountain was ticking upwards despite being in Return to Ravnica, because the original set foil was that much rarer.

Even Modern Masters hasn’t made a dent in most foils.

This is notable because the original set foil has the same art and the same wording…but costs twice as much just for a different set symbol! That’s the power of being a collector.

Generally, the foil to non-foil multiplier is two to three times the price. If a card is $1, the foil should be around $2-$3. Mythics may or may not have a bigger gap. The more formats a card is played in, especially Eternal ones like Legacy, Vintage, or Modern, the more the gap will be due to players wanting to pimp out their decks.

Let’s take a look at one of the biggest gaps in recent years: Abrupt Decay.

The regular one is about $13 right now, while the foil has a value of $90. Ninety dollars. You could have bought this for $30 for more than a year after its debut. I know for a fact that multiple people were trumpeting Decay as a foil spec and now the ship has sailed. This high gap is because of the eternal playability of the card, because it’s nearly universal and dodges all the counterspells that are played in such formats.

Today, I want to go through some cards that have a larger or smaller gap, and explore if that is going to get better or worse over time.

Shocklands ($10-15/$30-50) – Considering that these got a little bit of a bump in nonfoil, thanks to Dragon’s Maze and some Event Decks, the price on foil shocks has not gone up significantly…yet. These are a very good candidate to start an upward trajectory. Not a huge spike, but a gradual increase as they are put into Cubes/Commander decks and kept there, lowering the supply. I’ve been trying like hell to trade for these before they go any higher.

Boros Charm ($3/$10) – The gap is normal, but the use isn’t. This sees a lot of Modern play as a two-mana, four-damage Burn spell. It’s also amazing in casual formats for saving everything of yours from sweepers. I’ve got a spare foil playset in addition to three foils in different decks, and I’m happy with this potential.

Chromatic Lantern ($4/$24) – SHHHHH! Not everyone is aware that this is such a sought-after foil. It’s only the best fixer ever, and colorless, and an accelerator. I’d be on board with picking this up now, as there’s a good chance it clears $30 before the end of summer.

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben ($7/$41) – This little lady sees play all over the place. She’s not an EDH fixture, but there are hatebear decks all over Eternal and this is one of the best, making Brainstorm a 1U spell and adding mana to the ‘free’ cost of Force of Will. This is another that’s only going to go up, because as a small set between two large ones, there’s a rather short supply of her in foil.

Thespian’s Stage ($1.50/$14) – Look at the price difference between the foil and the regular. Nine times the price gets my attention. That’s a sign of strong casual appeal. If you only need one of a card (for an EDH deck or a Cube) then you might as well make it foil. I do not expect this to go much lower, because all of its appeal is casual. Only cards with high prices due to Standard are going to crater at rotation.

Gray Merchant of Asphodel ($.50/$4.50) – Your eyes do not play tricks; that is indeed a $4 foil common. Zombies are one of the most popular casual tribes out there, and this guy is amazing. What makes this stand out just a little more is that Zombies and black decks are very good at mass reanimation, especially in EDH. If the Merchant comes back at the same time as three or four other Zombies, the devotion will be good for seven or so. I’ve drained an EDH game for fifteen each, and it was worth being targeted for the rest of the game. The foil is $4 now, but it’ll creep up over time.

I’m going to leave you with a set of speculations that are rather safe, and have big-time potential. Foil Onslaught fetchlands. If these ever get put into Standard, that makes them Modern legal as well. The old frame will command a premium, and foils of that doubly so. I know there are judge foils out there, and those are spicy too if you don’t want to shell out $400+ for a foil Polluted Delta. The supply on these is very small, and there are already Legacy decks shelling out for these. Even if they never make it into Modern, they are going to be a safe place to stash value for a while.

Join me next week when I cover what you should be going after in Conspiracy!

By: Cliff Daigle

I know that most of you here are enthusiastic Magic players. You’re likely to do a lot of trading, buying, and selling. You attend a range of events, from FNM to PTQ, GP and other large events. Wizards knows this and does things to make Magic an awesome game for you.

They also understand that a huge part of the playerbase is not here to gain value, or to win a tournament, or even to win a game. Many players are here because this game is a social interaction interwoven with a card game, and this interaction is tremendously fun.

That’s how we get Conspiracy.

I’m here to tell you that Conspiracy is draft- and multiplayer- based, and in a way that is going to be very, very fun. You are going to see people want to draft this set on a basis that I don’t think has been matched. Modern Masters may have come close, but the value on that set made it sought after in a different way.

I’ve been lucky enough to draft almost every set of Magic. I’ve drafted Unglued and Unhinged. I’ve drafted the Ice Age block. I’ve helped build Reject Rare Cubes for drafting.

Nothing is going to come close to what Conspiracy offers. The mechanics that alter the draft, even going so far as to add a ninth booster pack to the eight that are circulating. You get to peek at another pack, or see what else has been taken.

The gameplay mechanics are fantastic too. Will of the Council allows for democracy, unless you have Brago’s Representative and then you’re a dictator. None of the choices are ever weak either. You’re going to get a great effect no matter the vote, and ‘helping’ others decide how to vote is going to be a game within the game.

Dethrone is a simple and effective tool for deciding who to attack. I’m salivating at the thought of what effect is going to give other creatures dethrone. If we’re really lucky, we will get an effect that can be passed from player to player. “At the beginning of each combat step, all creatures controlled by target player gain Dethrone” would be something amazing to put on a creature. It’s super helpful that Dethrone triggers on the attack, not on the damage.

Parley is just a great way to peek at what other players will have going on. Reveals and bonuses are a way to make the information palatable to those players because you’re usually getting much more of a bonus.

I want you to go to the release events. Just play. Play as much as you can. This is a set that will reinforce the vast array of player types that Wizards has learned to accomodate. The same company that rules the Modern banned list with an iron fist also creates a set where Deal Broker is a card.

There are going to be some unique cards available in Conspiracy, and with the presence of foils, might be incredibly pricey. Of note so far will be only the third foil printing of Brainstorm and the first non-promo foil of Swords to Plowshares. Exploration, an Urza’s Saga rare that did not get the reserved list treatment, will have its first foil. Dack Fayden in foil will also command a hefty price tag, but if you’re looking for a lower bar of entry on your speculations, I’d suggest going after foils of the cards that affect the draft, like Cogwork Librarian.

Conspiracy is going to have a big effect on Cubes this way. Some purists won’t want to touch these sorts of cards, and I suspect that more will add them with gusto. Even the foil common versions will be worth a surprising amount after we’ve moved on to Magic 2015 and the Khans block.

There’s one more thing to note about prices and Conspiracy: We’re going to have an effect on Journey into Nyx – Born of the Gods – Theros drafts. If your FNM is doing Conspiracy instead of JBT, that’s going to keep Theros block cards a little more scarce. Modern Masters interfered with M14 this way and led to a dearth of Mutavault. It’s possible that Conspiracy makes Journey into Nyx cards even rarer than my 6:2:1 article would indicate. It’s possible that if Conspiracy sells well and get reprinted, it will affect the summer sales of M15 as well.

I’m seeing preorder boxes for pretty close to MSRP. Some are even below, as if this were any old booster set. This is not the usual 36 packs, and if you get the chance to put away a box or two, it will be an easy way to grow your money over time. Booster boxes usually are, but ones that offer a unique and fun format, AND AT THE SAME TIME are stuffed full of value, should be treated with respect and purchased freely.

And if anyone asks…I didn’t tell you. Shhh!

By: Cliff Daigle

With the recent spoiling of some special-edition judge foils, it became clear to me that there are more judge foils that need to be released.

I leave it to others to speculate on the price of the promo Force of Will (ALL THE DOLLARS) and instead I’m thinking of my experiences buying foils that are given out in judge packs at high-level events for a while. Judge foils usually follow a pattern of being at a very high price on their release, and that price slowly comes down over the duration of the card being given out.

For example, a friend of mine bought a Xiahou Dun, the One-Eyed when it was first printed as a promo for the price of $120. Eight months later, it could be had for $60.

First of all, two cycles:

Sword of War and Peace & Sword of Body and Mind (old frame) – We’ve gotten three of the five swords in the old frame, and Wizards knows we like our cycles. Expect these as a when, not an if. WaP and BaM are the weakest of the Swords, and would probably end up in the $30 range. 

The other Praetors in Phyrexian – Again, this is a cycle begging to be printed. The Phyrexian Elesh Norn is sick, and I’d love to have this same effect applied to the other four colors. Since the other four see less play and are arguably weaker, their prices will be low too, probably down to $20.

Kozilek, Butcher of Truth – There are three Legendary Eldrazi, and Ulamog and Emrakul have each had a special edition. Set foil Kozilek is surprisingly expensive, and the judge foil wouldn’t make it any lower than $60, I’d say.

Iona, Shield of Emeria – As a reanimation target, Iona is super-popular for her ability to shut out an entire color. She’s popular in Cubes for this reason, and there are polite disagreements about her use in EDH, when a reanimation/Kaalia/Bribery can put her in play early and lock out some players. A judge version of her would be around $30 once the initial demand was met.

Mana Drain – If Force can finally make it, this is the other one that Eternal players are eager for. It’s enormously powerful, a card that hearkens back to the days when counterspells we not only undercosted, they gave significant advantages. I suspect that this would be a limited edition as Force is said to be, and therefore I’ll say the price here would be around $600.

Vigor – This would be an attempt to goose the supply of Vigor for casual players. It’s a really great effect for a wide range of decks and players, something I try to put in as many decks as I can. It dates back to right before Magic started to explode, and would be welcome in lots of formats. It’s never seen much Constructed play, so I’d expect these foils to be around $25.

Yavimaya Elder – Hear me out. This is a card that isn’t worth much in nonfoil, but there’s only been one foil printing. This could use the superior Matt Cavotta art, and be a very pretty upgrade in nearly every green deck ever. It would carry a price around $15-$20, and I would be delighted to pick those up.

Mikaeus, the Unhallowed – This is a card that frankly people in casual formats don’t play enough. It’s not only Wrath insurance, you’ll also get a re-use of all the sweet enters-the-battlefield effects on the creatures you play with anyway! this would not be a high-value card, but it would be a lot of fun. $15.

Sensei’s Divining Top – It was a mainstay of so many decks that it’s banned in Modern due to sheer logistics. It’s an old uncommon, it was in FTV: Exiled, and it doesn’t matter because so many decks like having this effect. Judge foils on this would never be below $50.

I imagine that I left out some fun ones. (Remember, judge foils can no longer be from the reserved list, despite the presence of Survival of the Fittest and Thawing Glaciers promos) and I’d like to hear what you want to have. I’m excited that Terese Nielsen’s Hanna, Ship’s Navigator will be available, and more Commander-only cards are sure to be printed too! Let me know what should be here, in the comments or on Twitter @WordOfCommander

By: Cliff Daigle

Aaron Forsythe, head of magic R&D, was on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast two weeks ago. Among the many things mentioned on that show was that sanctioned Modern events have tripled in one year.

Tripled.

There were three times as many of these events held and sanctioned, meaning that this format is not only accessible, it is popular, despite the financial barrier to entry that has occurred in the past year.

Shocklands pushing $100. Tarmogoyf going up despite being in Modern Masters. Spell Pierce being a $2 common. The list goes on.

Commander has seen a similar set of price trajectories in the past year, with a range of cards spiking due to Nekusar’s popularity and the release of a second set of Commander decks. Some of the format ‘staples’ are at high prices due solely to the appeal of this ‘casual’ format. 

In many ways, these two formats have allowed Magic to have a period of sustained and substantial growth. More and more people are not only taking up the game, they are finding the ways to play that appeal to them. EDH brought back stacks of players, and when we returned to the game, we found that our old cards were worth enough to pay for our re-entry into this game.

I’ve said before that I’ve done my fair share of selling out. I wanted the cash instead of the cards. I’m likely to do so again.

When it comes to the growth of Magic, I’ve come to the conclusion that for the most part, reprints are not going to affect the price for long. Wizards has demonstrated that they want to err on the side of underprinting, and in some cases, being in a major set has not affected the price for long. Thoughtseize is going to be an exception, but it would not be surprising if that card regained a price level of $40 within two years.

While I can’t think of another game that waited until years 16-20 to start such a period of growth, I feel pretty good about the next couple of years. I don’t know if the next large fall set (a revisitation of an old one, if the pattern holds. Dominiaria? Alara? Zendikar?) will be the best-selling set ever again, but I can say that it will be fun to introduce new players that way.

As for some specific cards, I’m quite surprised at Athreos’s current price. We’ve barely started events with Journey, and until we start getting more results, I’d be happy to trade these away at $25 or so. It’s cheap and capable of being powerful, but what creature in Standard are we recycling for value? Perhaps that will be answered soon.

Mana Confluence is slowly trending down. It’ll be present in greedy control decks for the next year, but probably at a 2-or-3-of. I’m really surprised that with some decks not running basics at all Burning Earth hasn’t had a chance to shine. I’d pick up any Confluences around $10, but it hasn’t gotten that low yet. I would absolutely trade for them at $40 in value, though.

Foil Kruphix, God of Horizons is around $25 and I would happily trade for them at that price. The casual appeal for that card is measured in megatons.

Finally, a word about the judge foils recently announced, including Force of Will: These include some very chase cards, and I’m least surprised by the old-frame Sword of Feast and Famine. You may expect Body and Mind and War and Peace to follow, as Wizards knows collectors love their cycles dearly.

I do not expect many of these foil Forces to make it far. They are going to be snapped up quickly, and I’ll be watching the effect on the non-foil Forces. Terese Nielsen has put some legendary alters of this card on the market for those who needed to make their nonfoils more unique, so there’s some collectors who might not care at all.

Will the market get flooded with nonfoils as people upgrade to foils? I don’t think so. I expect the nonfoil price to hold steady…with a good chance of it rising. Modern Masters taught us that when you bump the supply of a card, especially something that’s often a four-of, the demand can go up even more. We will have to wait and see.

I’d love to have one of the first judge foils, just to set the market on eBay!