It’s always worthwhile to sit down every now and again, reflecting on one’s best practices.

I want to walk you through my best and worst purchases and recommendations this year. Note that the two aren’t always inclusive of each other, as I don’t like to use my articles to trumpet my own buys and try to influence the outcome. If I am buying something I’m writing about, I try to be very clear on my current/planned holdings.

I’m trying to focus just on what I did this year, so selling things that I bought in years past doesn’t really apply, sad to say.

Let’s get to it.

Best Buys that I made

Jan 2022 – Garruk’s Uprising (M21 Showcase foil) – 45 copies @ $1.40 each

I am someone who generally doesn’t go for the big spec purchase. Mostly, my buys on TCG are restricted by ease and what I’ve put back in from other sales, and tend to be around $100. NM foils for the Showcase are going on TCG for around $2.50 each now, with a copy or two per day, a velocity I’m quite pleased by. Buylists haven’t caught up on the foils yet, but I’m confident I’ll be selling these as a stack to someone in 2023 for around $2.50/copy.

Jan 2022 – Haven of the Spirit Dragon (DTK pack foil) – 4 copies @ $11, sold 10/2022 @ $18

I mentioned these in my article from 1/14/2022 and took the value when they went up later in the year. The price has come back down a little, which always makes me feel good about taking my proflt and moving on to the next card.

March 2022 – Secret Lair x Street Fighter (foil) – 8 copies @$50 each

Secret Lairs sting because of tax, get to add another 10% for that here in California. Still, these are going for just over $70 on TCG, buoyed by the Hadoken version of Lightning Bolt that’s going for $14 on its own

April 2022 – Ghoulish Procession (Double Feature Silver Screen Foil) – 8 copies @ $3 each

I went in on a few DBL foils earlier in the year when it became apparent that there wasn’t a lot out there getting opened. Cheapest NM copies on TCG are at $5.50 and growing. If you need fodder for sacrificing or other shenanigans, this is pretty easy to trigger consistently.

Worst Buys that I made

April 2022 – Scalding Tarn Retro Frame Foil (MH2) – 4 @ $67 each

Fetchlands have become remarkably cheap thanks to the surprising among of Modern Horizons 2 Collector Boosters that have been opened over the last year. I thought we’d hit a floor in April, but remarkably, prices for most of the set have kept going down as the chase mythics have gone up. Fetches have a lot of choices, some impressively cheap. These regular foils are down to $45, and the Etched Foil Retro Frame are under $30! For a Scalding Tarn, a card that was regularly pushing $100!

You may be sure I’m quite glad I didn’t go deeper on these lands.

August 2022 – Dominaria United Collector Booster Case @ $1300 – I thought that the Lost Legends inclusions would lead to some very chase prices, and I made this purchase before I was able to do the math on just how rare those things would be. Prices went south right away, and the first chance I get to get out for $1100, I’m going to take the loss and move on.

My Best Recommendations

1/28/2002 – Eidolon of Blossoms (JOU Foil) @ $3, went to $9, now $7

It’s a good feeling to get a triple-up within a year of recommending a card. Eidolon is an engine piece for a very popular theme, it’s single-colored, and hopefully you were able to sell at the peak. Even selling now and getting the double-up would be a winner. Don’t ever be afraid to take your profits and move on.

5/13/2022 – Treasure Cruise (TSR Retro Foil) @ $33, currently $45 and rising

Pretty straightforward for all the reasons that I listed. Time Spiral: Remastered is a set that used quite a gimmick to goose the Retro Foils to impressive heights, and Cruise is a card that’s still Pioneer legal. We’re getting our first Retro border reprints now, in Yawgmoth, Thran Physician, plus Urza, Lord High Artificer, and I’ll be curious to see how many more of those we get going forward. 

6/10/2022 – Kindred Discovery (CLB Extended Art Foil) @ $20, said to wait and let it drop, now $5.

This is a card I wanted to buy very badly because it’s so so so good in the theme decks I love, such as Dragons and Zombies. However, I knew that buying it early was a formula for disaster, and waiting has proven me correct. I didn’t think it would go all the way to $5, but here we are and I’m likely to pick up a few now that they are so darn cheap.

My Worst Recommendations

04/15/2022 – Xorn (CLB Showcase Foil) @ $4, currently $2

The Monster Manual editions of cards have turned out to be a flop. There’s a subset of Magic players that go absolutely gonzo for them, and I imagine there’s a lot of the Magic/D&D overlap working at Wizards right now, but the prices speak the truth about what the wider audience says: that art style isn’t going to come back unless it’s hyper-collectible, like the Here Be Dragons Secret Lair. 

Treasures have turned out to be one of the more popular and useful things to do in Magic, and Xorn giving extras ought to have led to increases in prices. Prices have fallen hard since the set came out, though, and this version is especially cheap.

5/13/2022 – Panharmonicon (TSR Retro Foil) @ $40, currently $28 and sinking

Sadly, one of my favorite cards is also one of my worst recommendations of the year. I didn’t see the double reprint coming at all. I figured that with the blueprint version in Secret Lairs, plus this version, we were pretty set. Just a few weeks after I wrote this, we got regular, borderless, and foil-etched copies in Double Masters 2022, followed more recently by a reprint in Jumpstart 2022. That’s a double-dip for a card that has the Commander demand to survive repeated reprints, but they need to give it some time to breathe. 

My new rule is six months. I don’t consider buying cards for long-term growth until six months after release, and wouldn’t you know it, we’re at six months post-Commander Legends: Battle of Baldur’s Gate. I’ve learned through hard and expensive experience that I don’t want to buy cards until the floor, and it takes several months to find that floor now.

Let’s go over some cards from the set, and discuss how the price fell and fell and fell, and then decide which merit being a pick up from a vastly underpowered and poorly-selling set.

We need to start out with the obvious: This set was underpowered for Commander, and undersold. That doesn’t mean everything is cheap, though. Here’s the entire list of cards worth more than $10 right now in nonfoil:

Fourteen cards on this list, while Streets of New Capenna has nine cards, and even Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty has seven. Granted, Baldur’s Gate cards have the assorted variations of the same four Dragons as different entries here, but these are still valid hits on pack openings. 

What we are looking for is that mix of cards that are good in Commander, based on their EDHREC inclusion, aren’t too expensive, and perhaps have some Eternal applications. I don’t worry about Standard these days, and you shouldn’t spec based on that format either.

Remember that EDHREC data is useful but it is also flawed: There’s a bias towards preconstructed deck inclusions, and it only represents the people invested enough to list every single card of theirs. I haven’t listed any of my decks, for instance.

With all of this in mind, let’s look at cards, keeping in mind that for most of these, the Monster Manual Showcase versions are definitely cheaper. If you like those versions, you can stock up, but the prices speak to the average player having a disdain for that, even if it’s cheaper.

Decanter of Endless Water (a quarter to $2.50) – This is strange to me, and I’ve been having difficulty figuring out what is up with this card. The regular version sells 7-8 copies a day around $2, while the foil moves slower. This is clearly for everyone who loves drawing endless cards, but this wasn’t in the precon decks. It’s just popular. If it stays popular, this is probably a buylist play: buy 100 copies for around 30 cents, and when they hit $1.50, sell them all to a buylist for $1 each. Even better if you live near a store, save on shipping!

Jaheira, Friend of the Forest (30 cents to $2) – Giving all tokens this ability to tap for green mana is pretty outstanding, because it’s not just creature tokens, it’s everything. Jace, Mirror Mage tokens. Treasures, Food, Clues! All of them are now Mox Emeralds. There’s already a lot of combos here, and everything that makes tokens gets better with this. I love that sort of open-ended synergy, and I think that this is worth buying in on.

Astral Dragon ($4, no foils) – This set not only gave us the outstanding cycle of Ancient Dragons, but also a few accessory Dragons that I really like long-term. Being from the Commander deck, there’s no foils here or for Brainstealer, but this is another combo-centric card. I’ve already used this on a wide variety of board states, and been pleased at every turn. I fully expect this to be some weird combo in the future, as what it does is quite unique.

Brainstealer Dragon ($3, no foils) – Getting cards for free is exactly what you want from a seven-drop. Sure it’s already a big flyer, but at end of turn, you’re going to exile three cards and be able to play them whenever you want, using any color of mana, and dealing damage to its owner when you do. Winner all around, a cheap card and one I want to have in stock going forward.

Wrathful Red Dragon ($1.50 to $3) – Dragons don’t generally need ‘don’t mess with me’ cards but it’s always nice to have a card that says ‘Even if you block, you’re going to take a pile of damage.’ I also like how this breaks the mirror match for Dragon decks, or turns your Scourge of Kher Ridges into ‘target player takes a boatload of damage.’ For this card, we can get Extended Art foils for crazy cheap, and considering how popular Dragon decks are, this is one of the best to be playing.

Monster Manual ($1.50 to $3) – Quicksilver Amulet has been printed to dust, and will never recover. This is clearly an upgrade, and carries the downside of needing green mana. Still, green decks tend to be chock-full of giant creatures that want to be cheated into play, and this is a great way to do that. Again, we can get the premium foil version for cheap, and that’s where I want to be.

Gond Gate ($1) and Baldur’s Gate (50 cents to $2) – Gate decks will have their day in the sun again. Purchasing these is a gift to yourself when we get our next trip to Ravnica, where both shocklands and Gates will be present yet again. These two Gates are heavily synergistic, and the Gond Gate nullifying Gates’ disadvantage is a big big deal. These sell at a brisk pace now, so stock up while you can.

Nautiloid Ship ($4 to $8) – I know Jason’s mentioned this card once or twice, so let me just add my voice, that this is a phenomenal card and incredibly unfair. A 5/5 flyer with crew 3 is not difficult to get in a hit with, and you don’t even have to hit the player whose graveyard you exiled. Just a fantastic card and one that should be getting a lot more play.

Artificer Class ($5, no foils) – Granted, there’s a long long list of ‘blue cards that are auto-includes in artifact themed decks’ but this deserves to be on the list. It’s not as broken as Foundry Inspector at Level 1, but it gets so much better as you level up. Two mana to draw your next artifact is good, six mana to copy artifacts is outright broken.

Vexing Puzzlebox ($3 to $6) – We’ve gotten a lot of fun with d20 cards, and this one allows for an easy payoff. People aren’t quite as asleep on this mythic, since the FEA is $6, but it’s pretty easy to have this tap to search up an artifact every other turn or so, especially if one of your early finds is for Unwinding Clock or the like. Every dice-rolling card makes this better, so I want to have a few ready for our next set that features the ability.

I know that in the current environment, it’s tough to keep track of everything that’s coming out. We’re bombarded every other week or so with previews, leaks, and spoilers, for Secret Lairs, Jumpstarts, Remastered sets, you name it.

Even so, it is my honor to report that there’s a relatively straightforward reprint set coming out January 13, 2023. It’s got some hot reprints, the mythics of which I covered last week, but today I want to break down your odds of pulling the cards you want most. 

So let’s get into the math of the thing, and that’ll allow us to figure out if we want to buy Collector Boosters or singles.

This is the breakdown of what’s in a Collector Booster, and as a result, we can see that all the value is concentrated in the slot with the traditional foil retro frame cards or borderless versions. Lots of sets have variations, but this one is just retro and borderless and that’s it.

Let’s lay out which are which, in terms of rarity and frame.

Retro Frame Rare (60)	Retro Frame Mythic (20)	Borderless Rare (23)	Borderless Mythic (17)
Divine Sacrament Enlightened Tutor Glory Lieutenant Kirtar Sevinne’s Reclamation Windborn Muse Wrath of God Arcanis the Omnipotent Denizen of the Deep Mystic Remora Mystical Tutor Opposition Stroke of Genius Vexing Sphinx Body Snatcher Chainer, Dementia Master Entomb Mindslicer Nantuko Shade Oversold Cemetery Royal Assassin Gamble Grim Lavamancer Overmaster Pashalik Mons Shivan Dragon Siege-Gang Commander Sulfuric Vortex Arboria Birds of Paradise Exploration Forgotten Ancient Jolrael, Mwonvuli Recluse Saproling Symbiosis Worldly Tutor Absorb Arcades Sabboth Decimate Phantom Nishoba Pyre Zombie Rith, the Awakener Sol’kanar the Swamp King	Lyra Dawnbringer Serra Avatar Test of Endurance Force of Will Time Stretch Urza, Lord High Artificer No Mercy Vampiric Tutor Yawgmoth, Thran Physician Last Chance Sneak Attack Worldgorger Dragon Kamahl, Fist of Krosa Nut Collector Sylvan Library Hunting Grounds Gauntlet of Power Legacy Weapon Urza’s Incubator Dark Depths	Enlightened Tutor Windborn Muse Wrath of God Denizen of the Deep Mystic Remora Mystical Tutor Chainer, Dementia Master Entomb Oversold Cemetery Gamble Grim Lavamancer Siege-Gang Commander Arboria Birds of Paradise Worldly Tutor Absorb Decimate Helm of Awakening Jester’s Cap Lotus Blossom Triskelion Gemstone Mine Maze of Ith	Lyra Dawnbringer Test of Endurance Force of Will Time Stretch Urza, Lord High Artificer No Mercy Vampiric Tutor Yawgmoth, Thran Physician Last Chance Worldgorger Dragon Nut Collector Sylvan Library Hunting Grounds Gauntlet of Power Legacy Weapon Urza’s Incubator Dark Depths

Every rare and mythic has a retro version, and 1/3 of the rares also have a borderless. For the mythics, all of them have both a borderless and a retro, except for Serra Avatar, Sneak Attack, and Kamahl, Fist of Krosa.

Given that Wizards is making it easier and easier to build an all-retro-frame Commander deck or Cube, I’m not shocked that there’s a lot more retro than borderless here.

Usually, Wizards collates things so that all copies of a card’s variants total the same amount. That does not appear to be the case this time. When looking over mass cracking data from vendor partners, the variant ratio on non-foil Retro to Borderless, for cards that have both does not look to be equal. Rather, the split seems to be closer to 2 Borderless for every 1 Retro version of a card like Sylvan Library that has both. This effectively means that mythics with both retro and borderless are twice as populous and that the variants don’t split the drop rate as we typically see in CBs.

For example, in the # of CBs one vendor opened, they pulled:

12 Retro Sylvan Library
23 Borderless Sylvan Library
12 Retro Sneak Attack

This suggests that there are actually 3x as many of the mythics and rares that have 2 variants vs. the ones that only have a retro version.

I suspect this is a goof, rather than a change in policy, but as we work with incomplete information, we will update accordingly.

As always, we’re operating on the basic premise that the ratios for cards are the same as a Draft Booster: 10 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 rare or a 50% chance of being a mythic. That’s a 10:3:1:0.5 ratio, but to make things easy, I double it to 20:6:2:1. Translated, for every mythic, there’s 20 copies of a common, there’s 6 uncommons, and two rares.

We’ve got 60 retro rares, 23 borderless rares, 20 retro mythics and 17 borderless mythics, all of which are guaranteed to be foil in this slot. One thing to remember is that the total number of copies is the same for each card at each rarity, even if there’s less version. For example, If this set puts 300 of each mythic out there, that means there’s 150 of the Borderless Foil Lyra Dawnbringer, 150 of the Retro Foil Lyra Dawnbringer, and 300 Retro Foil Sneak Attack.

So when we’re calculating drop rates in this slot, we need to be cognizant of the different versions available.  We also know from vendor experience that the cards with one variant frame are appearing around half as often as the cards with both.

I have changed the table to reflect this.

	Chance for getting that card (any version)	Chance for getting a specific frame	Estimated number of Collector Booster boxes needed for specific frame
Rare with one frame	1/70	1/70	5.8
Rare with two frames	1/70	1/140	11.7
Mythic with one frame	1/280	1/280	23.4
Mythic with two frames	1/140	1/280	23.3

So with this trick of giving almost all the mythics a second frame, they halved the drop rate for each frame. It’s also a great way to keep the price high for the special versions of a card, even if the price for the regular frame drops precipitously. 

A drop rate of one every 280 packs for the rarest mythics is not far off from most of the other sets we’ve had recently, and this set is notably lacking in a subset or a super-mega-rare. There’s no serialized versions, no Lost Legends, no alt-art Japanese Mystical Archive. Let’s have a comparison with other recent sets:

Card/Set	Collector Boosters to open one (approx.)	Card/Set	Collector Boosters to open one (approx.)
Phyrexian Foil Vorinclex (KHM)	256	Foil Etched Food Chain (2X2)	280
Japanese- Language Alternate Art Time Warp Foil (STX:MA)	309	Red Soft Glow Hidetsugu (NEO)	1,828
Foil Extended Art The Meathook Massacre (MID)	151	Phyrexian Foil Sheoldred, the Apocalypse (DMU)	346
Foil Fang Frame Sorin, the Mirthless by Ayami Kojima (VOW)	171	Phyrexian Foil Ajani, Sleeper Agent (DMU)	692
Extended Art Foil Jeweled Lotus (CMR)	400	Foil Alternate-Art Teferi, Temporal Pilgrim (BRO)	299
Phyrexian Foil Urabrask, Heretic Praetor (SNC)	492	Retro Foil Sulfuric Vortex (DMR)	70
Borderless Foil Ancient Brass Dragon (CLB)	352	Retro Foil Sneak Attack (DMR)	140
Phyrexian foil (or foil-etched) Jin-Gitaxias (NEO)	544	Borderless Foil or Retro Foil Force of Will (DMR)	280

Things being not-quite-as-rare to pull from packs doesn’t mean they will be common, though. Remember that this is a reprint set, in between two major releases. I am not expecting this to be a hugely opened set right away, but the initial burst of product, plus the trickle of remaining boxes to open, should keep prices down for a while. As I said last week, I’m not expecting to buy any spec copies for several months, but feel free to grab all the personal copies you want right away.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Dominaria Remastered is an interesting set. We’ve ridden the Remastered train before, last year with Time Spiral Remastered. This time, though, we’re not getting an extra sheet in Retro frame, but we’re getting Retro and/or Borderless versions of the rares and mythics in boosters. 

I’ll break down the exact odds next week, but for this week, I want to look at the mythics of the set, because the rares don’t have much value as it is and surely won’t for a while after this printing.

I’m including the EDHREC data because Commander is the format that drives most prices these days, but please remember that EDHREC data is skewed. It’s only the most online people who bother to list their deck, while a whole lot of people take inspiration from those lists but might not make purchases. Cards that were in preconstructed decks are also overrepresented, mainly from people who start with a precon and then do some form of upgrading.

Lyra Dawnbringer ($7 for the cheapest version, up to $30 for the most expensive, listed in 15,000 EDHREC decks as commander and card) – Amazing card, busted in Limited, but honestly Giada is a better Commander for Angels. I fully expect Lyra to be a buck or two for the cheapest, and given the play pattern, I don’t think I’d ever be buying copies.

Serra Avatar (under a dollar up to $80 for the Junior Super Series promo, 5700 decks) – It’s had a couple of strategic reprints, and the JSS has a very unique foiling to it. Bulk all the way, don’t look back.

Test of Endurance ($19 to $55, 4500 decks) – I’ve written before about reprint equity. Some cards are expensive because they have not had a reprint, they are pricey because of low supply, not high demand. Test of Endurance will not recover from this, it’ll get cheap and fall hard. If it was a Pioneer card, there might be a deck, but no, this will be very cheap and I’m never buying in.

Force of Will ($90 to $327, 103,000 decks) – Let’s have a graph and look at what happened to the EMA version when the Double Master reprint came along:

It fell about $50, down to $75, and recovered nicely. It’s already dipping down on news of this reprint, and this is a staple that absolutely can recover. Given the sheer range of premium versions out there (Judge foil, Invocation, Box Topper, Borderless, Retro) I think I’m more inclined to buy up basic versions that get to the $40-$50 range. 

Have another graph, that shows the foil from EMA, and recognize that you either buy the cheap ones low and wait for them to go up, or you go after a premium and cross your fingers:

Time Stretch ($22 to $110, 9100 decks) – This had one reprint since Odyssey, which was Tenth Edition. No new copies since 2007 but has a surprising amount of EDH decks. Most extra turns cards exile themselves now, but not this one, it’s too old for that tech. We’ve got a whole lot of spells-costing-less effects going around too, and so I’m feeling good about this. Keep in mind that this is a casual player’s dream, and a whole lot of opened copies are going to stay in decks. 

I think this price falls pretty hard, but I will be interested in any version that gets sufficiently cheap.

Urza, Lord High Artificer ($45 to $105, 23k total decks) – Yes, Urza LHA is getting a second Retro treatment since his introduction in Modern Horizons 1. It’s a deep dive to find all the cards that have been double-dipped that way, but let’s appreciate that the retro reprint in MH2 barely bumped the original:

This reprinting will dent his price, but that will simply present a buying opportunity. Again, I don’t want to have to pick between premium versions, and I’ll be content buying copies in the $10-$20 range.

No Mercy ($30 to $180, 11k decks) – Pure scarcity reprint, and not a card I’ll buy unless it gets crazy cheap.

Vampiric Tutor ($40 to $110, 195k decks) – The graph here is very relevant:

Put into EMA, the price recovered quickly and then Commander Legends came around, giving us Extended Art of this incredible art. I believe this will dip under $20, and when it hits bottom, I’ll be going after a few copies for the long term. 

Yawgmoth, Thran Physician ($35 to $270, 40k decks) – This is different from Urza, because this retro was in Time Spiral Remastered, and that’s a far lower number of copies going around. The demand is there, from Commander players and from combo players alike, so I’ll be patient for this to hit $10-$15 and then I’ll get in for some copies.

Last Chance ($21 to $40, 2300 decks) – Was in Lil ‘Giri drop from MTGVegas this summer, and dropped a lot since then. The card is one of many that does the same thing, and this will be the first time it’s gotten a significant reprinting. I expect this to drop a long way and very quickly.

Sneak Attack ($16 to $30, 20k decks) – Too many reprintings for this card, even if it’s a Cube staple. Another card where the value will dissipate quickly.

Worldgorger Dragon ($5 to $185, 9100 decks) – Yes, there’s an infinite combo with this card, and that’s been most of its appeal. It’s great in a Torpor Orb meme deck, and should they print a Commander with the Torpor Orb text then this will spike, but really, I’m staying away even though this borderless art is amazing.

Kamahl, Fist of Krosa ($4 to $80, 5k decks) – Sure, infinite mana get you infinite damage here, but Ezuri is 

Nut Collector ($8 to $85, 2700 decks) – Squirrels are a meme tribe, but this is a solid card in token decks. I expect this to be cheap, and when it’s super low in a few months, I’ll want to buy a few copies.

Sylvan Library ($40 to $200, 142k decks) – I think the best plan here is the regular versions when it’s down to $20, because it’ll recover. Too many people want this, because it’s really busted in Commander, and the price will be returning to its plateau.

Hunting Grounds ($14 to $45, 1600 decks) – While a neat card, this has a single printing and I’m expecting the bottom to fall out of this. It’s more work than you think to get seven cards in the yard, and in this color pair. Bulk or close to it.

Gauntlet of Power ($5 to $70 , 18k decks) – Decent card, will be bulk.

Legacy Weapon ($1 to $50, 2000 decks) – Already bulk, and not going to change.

Urza’s Incubator ($45 to $400, 36k decks) – I will be fascinated to see where this goes. Clearly the price is gonna drop off, but how far? Single-creature-type decks are more popular than ever, and this is a breathtaking card, even if it makes the spells cost less for your opponents too. Given that the only sweet version is the original foil, I’ll be hoping that the premium versions in DMR get to a cheap price, but I will be interest in any version once the prices settle in a few months.

Dark Depths ($15 to $200, 18k decks) – I’m staying away from this. It’s a combo card in Cube and Legacy, and has had enough reprints to keep the price stable. This printing should drive it under $5 and probably lower.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.