Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Leaving Ikoria Behind

It’s crazy that all of this is true: we are a week from the launch of Core 2021, we’re in the middle of JumpStart previews and Double Masters is about to wreak some havoc.That’s just the Magic drama, to say nothing of political, social, and public health problems. (I’ve never oversimplified as much as I have as I did in that sentence.)

But from an MTGFinance perspective, there’s something clear worth a moment of focus: With the Core Set about to be the main event, Ikoria is at maximum supply and prices are at their lowest. Granted, the virus has caused slowdowns in supply and a lot of stores didn’t open their allotment, but until I get different data, this is when prices are lowest. Let’s talk about what you should buy, either for Standard, Eternal, or Commander.

Fiend Artisan ($17)

The graph shows it clearly but it bears repeating: This is a non-legendary mythic, only two mana (and flexible at that), and if you’re playing it you don’t mind the extra copies that are either huge or fodder for the first one. I like this as a spec to hit $25+ by Christmas under normal circumstances.

I have to admit these aren’t normal circumstances, though. Picking up cards for later Standard growth is not as stable even if there were no COVID-19. Lots of factors make this scary: the cancellation of all MagicFests in 2020, unknown amounts of product still waiting to be opened, and local stores not being a safe place to play paper. This might be too risky and I’d totally understand if you wanted to stay away.

Lukka, Coppercoat Outcast ($10)

Lukka hasn’t fallen much in price since the banning of his favorite Agent, but between Lukka and Transmogrify, that’s a lot of ways to upgrade a token into a real creature. These two cards will be legal together for the next 15 months or so, and I’d expect every big creature to get evaluated for this. Top targets currently include Drakuseth, Maw of Flames, Yidaro, Wandering Monster (both of whom are on-color) and End-Raze Forerunners. All are fun in different ways, and I wouldn’t rule out tutoring up Nyxbloom Ancient and then some mighty Volcanic Geyser action.

Ruinous Ultimatum ($2 regular, $2 foils, Extended Art $4, Extended Art Foils $12)

This is probably the ultimatum I want the most of for long-term holds. Yes, it’s lame if your opponent managed to land a Darksteel Forge or something like it, but for just about any Commander game this is the spell you’re working towards. Being three colors is a price, and all the Ultimatums are worth thinking about, but this is a pretty unique effect. For example, we’ve got Rise of the Dark Realms that is better than Eerie Ultimatum, and only in one color to boot. Planar Cleansing is too symmetrical for my taste. I love being unfair.

The Triomes ($5-$7, depending)

We’ve got the Temples in Core 2021, and the Triomes allow for the Castles from Eldraine to come in untapped. The Triomes are likely to be a feature of Standard for the next 15 months, as well as being awesome in Commander and splashable in Modern. This is the price when supply is at max, and given that we’ve got $20+ shocklands, having Triomes at $10+ doesn’t seem unreasonable. At the very least, you should get whichever ones you want for your Commander decks now, especially the sweet alternate art versions.

Heartless Act (about 75 cents each)

You might be able to get these for cheaper, and I would commend you for doing so. This is more than just good Limited removal: it looks to be one of the cheapest catch-all answers around. I looked at the top creatures being played in Standard, and blessed few of them don’t have counters. Heartless Act misses on a big Hydroid Krasis, or a big Stonecoil Serpent, but takes out almost everything else, as an instant, for just two mana. We’re going to see a lot of this little spell, and while it’s not Mystical Dispute, I wouldn’t be shocked if this was on buylists for $1.50 in six months. Get a stack of them now, and be prepared to ship them to a buylist for a comfortable flip.

Extinction Event (nearly-bulk prices)

Four mana is the sweet spot on board wipes, and before Companions were modified, this was unfairly good. You knew what you’d be naming from the getgo. I still think this is an amazing card, capable of dealing with the indestructible Gods of Theros or annoying Hexproof creatures if someone built a Bogles-style Standard deck. Plus, with the return of Heroic Intervention, just destroying things might not be good enough. Again, I think the play here is to purchase a brick of these at low prices, and when the buylist creeps up to $2-$3, ship the whole thing out.

Gemrazer ($1.50)

You can get some sweet Godzilla art or awesome comic-book-style art for a couple bucks more, but this is also a buylist play. Gemrazer is a four-of in the assorted mono-green aggro decks that have been popping up, and that’s because upgrading Gingerbrute to a 4/4 is a big game. Fires of Invention is gone, and that’s the big enchantment that was worrying folks, but the mutate ability does hit a lot of incidental value in the current environment and that’s a pretty great deal for three mana. I don’t want to hold this too long, I’ve written before about how Valentine’s Day is about the time when I want to get out of Standard cards that’ll be rotating.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Mythics of Core 2021

Well, here we go, the endless preview summer is underway. Between Core 2021, Double Masters, Zendikar 3, Commander Masters, and assorted supplementary sets, plus surprises like Secret Lair, we are going to have a whole lot of new product coming out. Not all of it is available immediately, and there’s a very good chance that some places go back under a shelter-in-place order, further complicating things. 

As a result of the complex situation we’re in, some people are near a store that will happily run a prerelease, and others won’t have a store within 200 miles. The pandemic is proving that prices can still go crazy and people can still overbuy cards during a frenzy/spike.

For now, though, let’s look at where the Core Set mythics are at, and where they might go from here. I’ve looked for some prices and I’m listing what I find. Given that these are presales, moving fast and operating off of predictions for supply, some of these things can change quickly.

Rin and Seri, Inseparable (no prices yet)

Rin and Seri, Inseparable (M21)

Buy-A-Box cards generally aren’t too expensive, but much will depend on the amount of Constructed play that the CatDog sees. Nexus of Fate was the worst-case scenario, and even if Rin and Seri see some play, there will be extra copies in the Collector Boosters. I don’t think this will stay above $10, and will dip as low as $5.

Teferi, Master of Time ($25)

Teferi, Master of Time (M21)

The play pattern here is exceedingly predictable: Play Teferi, loot, then on opponent’s upkeep phase out a problem creature. Control decks probably won’t play a full four of this Teferi, but 2-3 is the most likely. You can imagine how good this is with Teferi 3, playing board-wipe sorceries during their attack step. 

I think $25 is a pretty reasonable price here, and given the wide array of versions available, that should be a stable price for his lifetime in Standard. Remember that Core 2021 has the shortest Standard window, rotating in a mere 15 months. If cards from this set are going to spike, it’ll have to be in about six-eight months.

Grim Tutor ($28)

Grim Tutor (M21)

Honestly, this has fallen from some terrifying highs early on. People didn’t seem to understand just how few copies of the original were out there from Portal: Three Kingdoms. This is a backup Demonic Tutor, a fixed one, whose only drawback is the life loss. We haven’t had an effect like this at less than four mana, even though there’s been drawback-laden versions such as Scheming Symmetry or Wishclaw Talisman.

Commander players will keep this from dropping very far, though you’re going to see some super-premium prices for Foil Extended Art versions. Demonic Tutor is $30 for the cheapest, and from there, we can figure that Grim Tutor will end up in the $20 range. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was $15, either, depending on its usage in Standard. Three mana and three life is a steep price for getting just what you want, and it’s useless early game.

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon ($25)

Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (M21)

The original nonfoils from Fate Reforged have lost about $10 since this was revealed, and personally, I’m not hyped to see this in a Standard full of effective ramp strategies. Nissa, who Shakes the World combos well here, as the Elemental lands remain on the field after Ugin exiles most everything else. 

There’s no deck, aside from Modern’s Urzatron, that plays a full set of Ugin, but there’s a whole lot of Commander decks that wouldn’t mind having a copy. Being $25 this early means he’ll likely end up in the $10-$15 rage by the time we’re done. 

Chromatic Orrey ($14)

Chromatic Orrery (M21)

Seven-mana mana rocks kind of defeat the purpose of mana rocks, though this is the most mana you can get from a single tap without crazy Everflowing Chalice or Nyx Lotus shenanigans. I can see three-color decks playing this, though obviously your best uses will involve all five colors. I’m not enthused, though, because this is niche and awful for Constructed Magic. This will be $5 in weeks and possibly less.

Fiery Emancipation ($12)

Fiery Emancipation (M21)

While you can do a lot of neat things with this, be careful with your Earthquakes and Pyrohemias. Not every deck will want to play this, though most red decks should think about it. It’s ‘a source.’ Not a spell, not a red source, but anything you control. Use carefully. I wish this was five mana so people could play it alongside Obosh, the Preypiercer, but at six mana it’s a worse finisher than the companion or Embercleave. I’d be thrilled to see this in Standard, but even something as delightfully modal as Shark Typhoon is 

New Garruk, Chandra, Liliana ($10-$13)

Decent cards in Commander, especially if new Garruk can come down with a Doubling Season out, but the setup cost is pretty high in Standard. New Chandra offers the greatest utility, able to Shock every turn as a plus ability, but overall these are mediocre and will have prices between $5-$10.

Elder Gargaroth ($11)

Elder Gargaroth (M21)

Let’s look at Questing Beast’s price graph, shall we?

This is a card that does it all, and with haste. Elder Gargaroth does not have haste, and while it’s got incredible value on the attack or block, it does nothing on arrival. It’s a very good card, an example of how good a 6/6 for five mana can be, but the removal and bounce and counters are all too good. If this gets super cheap, I can see it getting back up to the $15 range, but it’s not going to be that expensive right away.

Mangara, the Diplomat ($10)

Mangara, the Diplomat (M21)

So this card…I feel like it’s pretty terrible, mainly because your opponent has complete control over when you draw a card. If they are casting two spells and neither is removing this creature, then you’re likely doomed anyway. Same for the multi-attack. Ten bucks is generous for this card, and while you’ll see some optimists putting it in lists, it’s not going to go well. I have a hunch this drops down to a buck or less pretty fast.

Massacre Wurm ($10)

Massacre Wurm (M21)

This, at least, has sideboard appeal and Commander demand backing it up. It was a mythic way back in New Phyrexia, which was forever and a half ago. Most of the supply has been soaked up by Commander players over the years, which has kept the price high. Now that it’s getting a reprint, the price will fall to about $7. Juuuuuuust enough people will want this, and not trade it away, that it’ll hold some of its value.

Basri Ket ($7) 

Basri Ket (M21)

I like the potential on this card. If you’re playing defense, the plus helps you maintain that. If you’re on the attack, the -2 closes things out with ridiculous speed, though it does say ‘nontoken’ and that rules out the double-double if you get to use the ability twice. However, it’s already fallen to $7 and will only have appeal in the aggressive white decks. Three mana planeswalkers are no joke, generally speaking, and I’d be surprised if this went below $5.

Baneslayer Angel ($5)

Baneslayer Angel (M21)

This was a mythic twice in a row, ten years ago. Even with all the power in this card, it wasn’t above $10 before the reprint and this is going to crash the prices pretty hard. It’ll hold $3 or so, and with Kaalia of the Vast about to get a new printing, there might be some renewed interest, but I will not be expecting too much from Baneslayer.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Jumping the Start

Look, I get it. We have Core 2021 leaks/previews going on now, we’re about to start preview season in earnest. 

We also have Double Masters coming up soon, and what feels like tons of Mystery Boosters on their way to retailers.

We might even get our local stores open soon! We know we aren’t getting any MagicFests in 2020, but today I want to focus on a product called Jumpstart that is going to be released in about six weeks. 

Let’s dive in with what we know and what value is to be gained.

First, the basics. We’re looking at the official Jumpstart page and the Draftsim aggregation. We’re getting more than 500 cards in this set, a number that would have seemed ludicrous before Mystery Booster showed up and blew us away.

There are exactly 37 new cards in this set, legal only in Commander, Vintage, and Legacy. This is where the value is likely going to be concentrated, but we’ll come back to that in a moment. We’re also getting about 120 reprints from Core 2021, leaving us 350 reprints of existing cards. We don’t know yet if there’s going to be foils, or Box Toppers, or Showcase cards of some kind. 

We did get told that there’s no foils, but I’d be surprised if there were no special versions, and special can mean a lot of things. 

The set is designed to be played like this: Grab two packs (20 cards to a pack) and combine them together. Each booster has a theme that won’t be apparent from the outside, and this is designed to be this sort of mix-and-play experience. If you dig randomness (which I truly do!) then this promises to be fun.

What I want to think about is that with 350 reprints and a short list of known themes, there’s some higher risk-of-reprints out there that I want to get out of. 

Here’s the list of themes alluded to so far, and keep in mind that some of the themes are ‘Mythic Rare’, meaning that they will have only one set of 20, whereas other themes can have a random selection of themed cards. For each of these, I’m going to list a likely reprint and a dream reprint. We don’t have pricing for this yet either. This is only part of the 46 themes, too. The cards in this set are going to be Historic-legal too, and that will inform the picks I’m making.

“Above the Clouds” (Quite likely flying as a theme)
Should be: Linvala, Keeper of Silence
Will be: Sephara, Sky’s Blade
Flying is UW territory, and Linvala hasn’t been printed in a couple of years. Sephara is a payoff for playing a bunch of small flyers, and bringing her back in sequential Core Sets is not a huge deal. 
Cats 
Should be: Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Will be: Brimaz, King of Oreskos
This is a pretty easy call, as Brimaz hasn’t been printed in forever and has a good price tag. That price will drop, though, so you should move out on the extra copies you have in your binder.
Doctor
Should be: Yawgmoth, Thran Physician
Will be: Liliana, Heretical Healer
I don’t think they are going to go Cleric here, and these two line up nicely in terms of characters and abilities. 
Eldrazi
Should be: It that Betrays
Will be: Void Winnower
I don’t think they are going to add any other legendary Eldrazi to Historic, and It That Betrays would be too awesome given all the sacrifice triggers running around. Void Winnower fits with the recent even/odd cards they’ve printed.
Elf
Should be: Norwood Priestess
Will be: Beast Whisperer
Too many people have never played with a more fair Timmy, Power Gamer, and this would make me super happy. Oracle of Mul Daya is another juicy target, but I think in the end we’re going to get a boring, efficient, and inexpensive card.
Garruk
Should be: Garruk, Apex Predator
Will be: Garruk Wildspeaker
I don’t think they’ll do two colors in these packs, so we’ll get the OG version who has never been able to get expensive or cheap, because of strong demand and regular reprints. I’d expect his Packleader, Horde, and Companion to come along as well.
Goblins
Should be: Dockside Extortionist
Will be: Goblin Wizard
This is a pipe dream of mine. The Wizard is impressively efficient if allowed to live, and breaks the mirror right in half. Extortionist needs a reprint badly, even though Limited isn’t the best spot for this ability the price is too high and will fall abruptly when it’s reprinted.
Hounds
Should be: Isamaru, Hound of Konda
Will be: Isamaru, Hound of Konda
I’m surprised to find that this goodboye hasn’t had a reprint since the original appearance in Champions of Kamigawa. He is a Mystery Booster foil, but given that we aren’t ever going to get to open much of the Retail Edition, I don’t think that has a huge bearing. I understand, those of you who are mad at the wide range of Cats, but Hounds are a tiny subtribe.
Phyrexians
Should be: Phyrexian Altar
Will be: Phyrexian Crusader
I want the big value here, from a card that just blew by being reprinted in Ultimate Masters. Another reprint wouldn’t keep it down for long. Instead, we will get middling value and a wrecking ball of a Limited card. 
Pirates
Should be: Dockside Extortionist
Will be: Hostage Taker
I know I said they’d avoid two colors, but there’s nothing more ‘what’s yours is mine’ than the UB pirate, but this would be a stunning place to get the Extortionist too.
Spooky
Should be: Kokusho, the Evening Star
Will be: Ghostway
This is just a guess, but Lingering Souls at rare would be understandable too. That card is far too busted at uncommon.
Unicorns
Should be: Feast of the Unicorn
Will be: ????They are going to print some new Unicorn here that will be worth money.
Vampires
Should be: Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
Will be: Vampire Nocturnus
Vampires sorely need a lord, a payoff, and this is it. Historic Vamps will totally be a thing, and a fun one if you like a touch of chaos. I’m quite certain that in M10 they never figured White as the secondary color for the Vampire tribe.
Walls
Should be: Tree of Perdition
Will be: Tree of Perdition
Sure, Bant gets stuff like Arcades to animate walls, but I’m eager to see this killer wall come back into vogue.
Wizard
Should be: Thrasios, Triton Hero
Will be: Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy
I won’t be shocked if all the Origins flip-walkers are in this set. They are neat to play with and quite fair. Thrasios isn’t, and I shudder to think of a Historic format where this and Kinnan are both payoffs for big mana decks.

Even if my picks are wrong, Jumpstart is going to offer us money. It’s meant to be a fun summer diversion, something that will perfectly fill downtime at a MagicFest or other events. Instead, it’s going to be crammed between other releases: Core 2021, the flagship of summer, and Double Masters, the high-value reprint festival. There will be a very short window to buy this and play this, and that means you should stock up on the reprints (not a lot of copies going into circulation) and the new cards (ditto) when we’re all going gaga for the cards in Double Masters.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Remastered

Wizards said that Ultimate Masters would be the last Masters set for a while. 

That was November 2018, and now we’re finding out that in August, they are back. Understandably, some people are upset and trying to avoid holding things that are about to be reprinted. We know a couple of cards already, and Double Masters has a bit of a theme they say, so if you’re picking up Twincast right now you might be unhappy when we get the full list.

But take a breath. We need to talk about what previous Masters sets have done to prices and what to do if some of your favorite specs get caught in the reprint vortex.

Let’s start with two iconic creatures of Modern: Noble Hierarch and Tarmogoyf, both of whom have had multiple printings. 

I put a purple dot on the timeline for the approximate time the card was reprinted, both of these have had that multiple times and finally in Ultimate Masters again.

What I want you to see is that the price recovered each time, until this most recent time. Noble was nearly $100 at one point, and the Goyf was famously a $200 card even in the reprint version. (For a laugh, go back and read Pascal Maynard’s article after picking foil ‘Goyf over the perfect Burst Lightning in pack 3 of his top 8 draft, I would have taken the shiny one too!)

So for these staples to lose value and stay down, two things had to happen: several targeted reprints and a big format shift.

Both of these cards were reprinted in multiple sets, and the two-drop was even mythic for most of those. The bigger news is that in late 2019, Pioneer was launched, and that’s caused a drop in a lot of Modern prices as people played less of that format and more of the new one. 

That’s what it will take for cards to go low and stay low…and that might not even be enough.

What you have to figure out is why a card is expensive, and that will tell you if the reprint will damage the price long-term, or if it’ll rebound in a year. A whole lot of the Modern Masters sets have that rebound, simply because people need the cards, and in a lot of cases, playsets of the card. Hierarch is not something you add one or two of to a deck; it’s a card you’re really hoping is in the opening hand and you wouldn’t mind drawing two.

Those two cards are staples of Modern. Let’s look at a more niche card that was expensive not because of play, but from pure scarcity: Daybreak Coronet.

Easy to forget that this was a $30 card until it was printed in Modern Masters 2015, when only one deck wanted four copies. As a rare in Future Sight, there weren’t that many copies to go around, but once there was a new supply, the price dropped and stayed dropped. Being in Ultimate Masters was the nail in the coffin, and this’ll never break $10 again.

This is what’s going to happen with Mana Crypt. You can’t reprint a card over and over again and have it maintain its price. Yes, it’ll be pricey, but the Eternal Masters version is at $175, Mystery Booster is $140, and the Double Masters will be cheaper yet. There’s a lot of other versions to chase, but these will all have the same art and the other prices will come down.

Constructed formats aren’t the only drivers though: Commander moves prices too, arguably more than any format besides Standard. Commander prices are a bit more real to me, because you’re not buying a playset, you’re buying one copy per deck. You have to have four times as many people wanting a card. For me, the example of this cycle is Doubling Season:

I’m convinced they could print this yearly at Mythic and it would be a $30 card. So many copies of this don’t get into circulation, because when you open one, you either put it in a deck that needs it or you trade it to someone else who needs it.

However, the rules of demand work the other way as well in Commander, as evidenced by Collective Voyage:

This was $15 in the summer of 2016 but only because it hadn’t been printed since 2011. A reprint in Commander 2016 destroyed the value because not enough players needed a copy for their deck. This is what’s going to happen to some specific cards that haven’t gotten many reprints, like Kaalia of the Vast. She was in the first Commander set in 2011, then the Commander’s Arsenal, and finally the first Commander Anthology. She’s never been in booster packs, and it looks like we’re going to devour Double Masters. I would be surprised if new copies went for more than $10.

Let’s look at a couple of cards that might be in Double Masters:

Time Stretch ($17-$70, 10th edition and Odyssey)

Sure, we could get something like Time Warp for one extra turn, but I think the prices are right to give this a reprint. This doesn’t have the exile clause that newer cards tend to have, and cheaper spells exist. I’d love to try casting this in Limited! A reprint here would end up at about $7 or less though, as the supply is the problem currently, not the demand. 

Kalonian Hydra ($20-$30, M14 and C16)

This would fall to $5 and start recovering not long after, because the doubling effect fits into a wide range of decks. It’s displayed this pattern before, and has had just enough reprint via the second Anthology to keep the price from skyrocketing. Also, this would be a nice treat for all the Zaxara the Exemplary decks that just got built!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.