Category Archives: Casual Fridays

Casual Fridays

The Grand Plan

For those of you who are experienced at the ebb and flow of Magic, today’s plan is not going to be a shock to you. What I’m doing is old hat and a plan that has served me well so far, and I haven’t seen a reason to change yet.

For those of you who are more new to the game, and the idea of how drastically values can change for a card, prepare for some sage advice. Even though the Pro Tour is underway, and you should stay tuned for cards that bust the format open, that’s a skill I don’t have. Today’s plan, though, has worked for me over and over.

Aether Revolt has some really powerful yet really cheap cards. This is good for us who seek to accrue value while cards are inexpensive, back to the original profit idea of “buy low, sell high.”

We are going to do a lot of buying low and hopefully a lot of selling high, but instead of lots of cards, I’ve got a timeline in mind.

Aether Revolt is the current set for drafting and events, but on March 15, Modern Masters 2017 will arrive.  Then on April 22, we have the prerelease for Amonkhet! This is a lot going on in a very short time, and represents some real opportunities.

The cheapest point for a set is right after the following set comes out. So for Aether Revolt, I want to be picking up cards about March 22. I want to be getting Modern Masters 2017 cards around the beginning of May.

I especially want to be getting the cards that have long-term appeal, not just the Standard powerhouses. I would so much rather buy 17 Lifecrafter’s Bestiary right now than one Walking Ballista, for instance.

The pattern of Standard has been one of consistency for the best cards. Let’s look at the headliner for Battle for Zendikar: big ol’ Gids.

He’s dipped down to $20 from time to time but he’s stayed in the $20-$30 range pretty consistently, and I expect the same out of something like the Ballista. It might go down to $10, it might creep up to $20, but nothing too crazy.

Unless Doubling Season gets reprinted in Standard. Then watch out.

I really love a lot of Aether Revolt for long-term holds. Regular and foil copies of the Bestiary, because the card is just amazingly powerful if you can live through the turn you cast it.

Whir of Invention is really intriguing to me, as a card that could be broken in the right deck. The comparison to Chord of Calling is a good one, because the deck that wants Whir will want four of them, and that’s a trait I truly love in my speculative picks.

Aethersphere Harvester is a fairer Smuggler’s Copter, but this demonstrates how good looting is compared to gaining life. I think Rishkar, Peema Renegade plus Winding Constrictor is a turn-two into turn-three that a lot of decks won’t be ready for, especially when something costing six lands on turn four.

I don’t know much about the cards in Modern Masters 2017, but the principle still applies. Conspiracy: Take the Crown lowered prices remarkably, and now a lot of those cards have enjoyed a bump. I want to plan on grabbing cards at their low point, though I need to think more about the actual cards. The 2013 edition of Modern Masters had a lot of amazing cards, but the 2015 was less valuable and more widely distributed. So we will see.

That’s my plan. It’s what I’m going to be trying to accomplish, and I love having targets and ideas clearly drawn. Buy low, sell high, but do that about once a month these days!

Casual Fridays

Grand Prix Preparations

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I’ve been planning for Grand Prix San Jose for about two months.

I have registered for the main event, I have arranged for a place to crash, I have made sure that the kids will be okay while I’m off drowning in Magic cards and events for a whole weekend.

There are some concrete, direct things you should do as part of the big event experience, and I’m here to share a few tips and tricks for what will make the event best for you.

#1: Sell Early!

I’ve got a box of cards that I’m going to buylist, mostly commons and uncommons from a collection I bought in December. Guy came into the shop with two boxes of loose cards asking $20, I snap bought, and got to work picking. (Luckily, I was in the midst of writing up older sets’ pickable commons and uncommons in my PucaPicks series on Thursdays, available to Protraders, so picking was quick for me.) I’ve also got a bunch of Commander 2011 cards that I’m ready to sell, and when I get to the event I’ll know if I want cash from a vendor or store credit, depending on what they have at what prices.

I’ve found that when bringing a lot of things to sell, I want to do that early in the weekend, when vendors have more cash and more time. I’ll have it sorted, unsleeved, and ready to work quickly. This isn’t #mtgblueprint stuff, just a general note about when to sell large amounts of cards.

Individual cards are different, and can be sold whenever. I’d sure be cashing out on Walking Ballista ASAP though.

#2: Pack Lightly!

I’m going to bring one, maybe two Commander decks, and one trade binder, and some sleeves for the main event. That’s it. I want to make sure that my bag isn’t overly full, and while I’d love to play a lot of Commander or Cube, there just won’t be time.

#3: Plan on the unique side events.

Selling a stack of cards is going to empower silly things for me, like Full-Box Sealed, an event which I was at first dismissive of but I have to admit that it sounds more and more awesome. Ridiculously overpowered Sealed, with the possibility of adding value to opening a single box? Sign me up.

Chaos drafts are appealing, or double-prize queues, Frontier events, or single-match drafts…the list goes on. Look at the event website and figure stuff out ahead of time.

I can Cube or Commander at other times, but this event has some stuff I can’t do at other times, and that’s the experience I want to maximize.

#4: Socialize as much or as little as you wish.

This one took me a while to figure out, because I didn’t notice what I was doing. If you can play events with friends, that’s really great and something you should do. Mainly, though, you should absolutely not take any time away from stuff you want to do in order to wait for someone, especially when dealing with food or breaks.

#5: Bring water, and pack food whenever possible.

Self-explanatory. Packing a sandwich and chips is pure value, both in terms of the money not spent at lunch and the time that is saved at the venue. Save your budget for breakfast, dinner, or cards instead.

#6: Sell your playmat, and don’t pick up extra life pads.

If I can get $5 or $10 for the mat at the event, I’ll usually take it. I realize that there’s the potential to make a few dollars more if I wait and eBay it, but unless the playmat is something special (truly awesome card, or double-sided, etc.) it’s not worth the hassle of storing the mat and carrying it around. I do the same thing with leftover cards. I keep rares and some uncommons, the commons I’ll leave for someone else that has the time, energy, and space to pack 5k boxes full of bulk commons. It’s just not worth it to me.

#7: Don’t over-plan!

I learned this lesson when planning vacations. If I plan on doing something every single day, then I won’t have time for appreciation or relaxation, and isn’t that the point? I want to leave time for variation in the things I want to do, or maybe I’m going to go on a tear in the Main Event and I won’t get to any of it. (Is the EV of two extra drafts on Sunday worth the stuff I’m missing out on? I hope to find out!)

Big events can be stressful, but they can be a lot of fun. If you are heading to the GP, use the hashtags and see who else pops up!

Casual Fridays

Trading for banned cards?

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The recent bannings have opened up some unique opportunities, but of the five cards, three are not as appealing as two are.

Gitaxian Probe: It sees Legacy play but that’s not enough to hold up a price it used to have, but luckily this means we are spared a reprint of the Probe in Modern Masters 2017 this March. There’s no value to be gained here.

Reflector Mage: I like foils in the long term, as something to drive Commander players crazy, but as a recent uncommon, it’s not good enough for other formats. Pass.

Golgari Grave-Troll: Poor guy. Banned, then let loose at the same time as Cathartic Reunion and Prized Amalgam, then banned again. Too broken for the format, and then they made sure, and now it’s likely forever. Plus, he’s not good enough for Legacy Dredge, so I’ve got no interest.

However, I admit this: I’m actively trading for Smuggler’s Copter and Emrakul, the Promised End.

I’m not afraid of doing so, either. I’m not buying copies hand over fist, though playsets of Copter can be had for $17 and that’s a very steep decline from where it’s been.

I like trading for a few of these gradually, because I want to pick up these two cards at their lowest point. Allow me to explain.

Smuggler’s Copter is a fantastic card. The first time Wizards does a new card type, they push one or two of the cards, and that’s how we get Jace, the Mind Sculptor, or the Copter. They just didn’t know how overpowering it was going to be. Skysovereign, Consul Flagship is close, considering how easily that can take over a board,

The Copter is intriguing to me for three reasons: First, it’s at its cheapest right now after the bannings. It was sitting pretty around $12, and now it can be had for $4-$5 each. The fact that it didn’t drop further is partially price memory, but partially optimism.

The second and third reasons are a pair of formats: Modern and Frontier. Copter hasn’t made a big splash in Modern yet but I want to be ready if it does. It’s popped up in a few lists, but nothing earthshattering has happened with it so far. It’s possible that the card is too consistent for Standard, but not good enough to make a splash in Modern.

Even though I’m not convinced of Frontier’s long-term potential, it’s already caused some spikes and I think there’s value to be gained here. I will let others make predictions about the format, but I don’t need to believe in the format in order to gain from its existence. I will note that the comparisons to Tiny Leaders feel appropriate at this point.

Emrakul, the Promised End is a different animal. No one is trying to break this card in older formats, but it’s a fantastic long-term gainer and it seems unlikely to be reprinted for quite a while. It’s one of only three Eldrazi with flying, and one of them is banned in commander, while the other is Eldrazi Skyspawner.

There is no shortage of decks in Commander that want to cast this card. Controlling someone else’s turn is incredibly powerful and shouldn’t be underestimated, and thankfully it’s a cast trigger, not an enters-the-battlefield trigger.

Emrakul is also a major character, the headliner of a small set, and one that was overshadowed to some extent in Eldritch Moon because Conspiracy 2 came out just a month and a half later. This impacted the amount of EMN that was opened and that’s also why Liliana, the Last Hope has stayed over $30. She’s not in a lot of decks, but she’s a fantastic card that was in a less-opened set.

(As an aside, the small sets are really getting treated poorly. We are barely going to have six weeks with Aether Revolt before Modern Masters 2017 shows up, and that’s just mean.)

I would gladly trade for foil versions of Emrakul, TPE right now, too. The multiplier is right about where I’d like it to be, not too high and not too low. I would expect steady growth from both prices as people trade for the card and they get put into decks and out of circulation.

I’d like to hear if you agree or disagree. Let me know in the comments, or head over to the forum!

Casual Fridays

AER-Mazing!

I whine about this every set, but oh how irritating it is that the whole set is spoiled today and yet I have to have this written ahead of time.

Some things are already in motion, and it helps to see what kinds of things people are obsessed with.

Animation Module – There’s a nearly-infinite combo with this and Metallic Mimic. Name Servo, and your tokens get counters. Pay mana and make more creatures. Repeat until you’re out of mana, but you’re spending one mana to make a 2/2 and that’s pretty awesome. Is it Standard-playable? Maybe.

Revolt as a mechanic – This is going to bust the Eldrazi Displacer decks right in half. There’s a lot of amazing Revolt triggers so far, and likely more to come. The Displacer activation is going to repeat and empower the trigger all by itself, and sure, play Panharmonicon with it.

Yes, it’s ridiculous in Standard with the new Aetherborn Warrior. But Displacer already had Reflector Mage to play with. Will this tip those decks over? I can’t wait to see.

I wonder if this mechanic is a clear sign that this was planned and tested for Oath of the Gatewatch only being legal till Amonkhet. We will see if this is the new oppression.

I’m also not the first person to point this out, but Revolt is disgustingly good with fetchlands, as well as any flicker effects. What’s that, Roon of the Hidden Realm? You’re asking for your turn. Fair enough. You’re good to go.

Fatal Push – This is exactly as good as it looks. It’s possibly better in Modern. It’s going to be one of the chase uncommons (seriously, some of these uncommons are pushed) but the foils are going to be highly sought after. Modern is going to play lots of these, and I think the play is to sell the ones you open early, and the ones you open for about the first three weeks, and then you start hoarding these. Gonna be legal for a long time!

Oath of Ajani – I’m highly skeptical of this card. If you want the cheaper Planeswalkers, you play a mana dork. If you want the bigger creatures, you want Always Watching. I think that people are going to be trying really hard to make this work, but don’t lose sight of how these are two effects that don’t work well together.

Release the Gremlins – I’m high on this, though. I think casual decks and Commander decks will be spoiled for choices, and you should delight in casting this for five or seven mana regularly.

Rishkar’s Expertise – Please don’t lose sight of how this card works. When it resolves, you draw the cards, and then get the free cast. So you can cast something you drew! Casual gold and a card I’ll be delighted to pick up at nearly bulk prices.

Disallow – Voidslime is a fantastic Commander card. It’s so great to have that flexibility, and now we have an upgrade on the mana cost. I think Disallow is going to be a heavy player going forward, as it’s a good answer to have against both Marvel and Emrakul. It’s not perfect, but you have the power to decide if you’re better off giving them the creature or letting them have your turn.

Hidden Herbalists – So in Modern, there’s a deck running Burning-Tree Emissary, Reckless Bushwhacker, and Goblin Bushwhacker. It’s not running Priest of Urabrask, but will it run the Herbalists to go with fetches? Someone’s trying already, I imagine.

Gonti’s Aether Heart – Wow. It’s six mana, but it makes a lot of energy and the energy decks will absolutely pop this into play.

Planar Bridge – Going to be a one-of in Tron, I suppose, though 14 mana to play and activate it in the same turn isn’t easy even for that deck. A great upgrade over Planar Portal and a card that will be added to the “Ban this card plz!!!@21!!” threads over in the EDH forums.

Invention Platinum Angel – Such the hotness. Can’t wait to have one. Price is going to be too high for what it does, but it’s so so beautiful.