Category Archives: The Gilded Goblin

Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

July 13, 2015 Jared Yost 15 Comments

Magic Origins Clash Pack Review

Let’s take a look at the Magic Origins Clash Pack to see if it is worth picking up in order to boost the value of your collection. I’ll look at both the MSRP versus retail value of the singles and then compare them to my opinions of what the future value of the cards will be after their rotation from Standard. I’ll also keep in mind that some of the cards from the decks are alternate art foil, which could reflect their future value.

For the alternate art foils, I am going to use the TCG Median price since MTGPrice does not yet track the value of specific clash pack foil versions of cards. I will note the special foils with three asterisks ***.

Decklists:

ARMED	$$$	DANGEROUS	$$$
1 Anointer of Champions	0.22	2 Ainok Bond-Kin	0.28
1 Dragon Hunter	0.32	2 Disowned Ancestor	0.26
1 Honored Hierarch***	3	3 Lightwalker	0.42
1 Seeker of the Way***	0.71	1 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit	2.47
1 Dromoka Warrior	0.18	1 Avatar of the Resolute	1.6
2 Topan Freeblade	0.28	2 Abzan Falconer	0.4
2 Undercity Troll	0.46	1 Tuskguard Captain	0.18
1 Consul’s Lieutenant	0.3	1 Mer-Ek Nightblade	0.18
1 Dragon Bell Monk	0.14	1 Abzan Battle Priest	0.19
2 Valeron Wardens	0.48	1 Longshot Squad	0.14
2 Citadel Castellan	0.76	1 Siege Rhino***	4.5
2 War Oracle	0.48	1 Elite Scaleguard	0.19
1 Outland Colossus	1	1 Dromoka, the Eternal***	0.5
1 Kytheon’s Irregulars	0.9
		2 Cached Defenses	0.42
2 Epic Confrontation	0.22	2 Map the Wastes	0.28
2 Enshrouding Mist	0.28	2 Incremental Growth	0.32
1 Feat of Resistance	0.15	2 Ultimate Price	0.68
2 Mighty Leap	0.28	1 Scale Blessing	0.2
1 Pressure Point	0.13	2 Dromoka’s Gift	0.4
1 Valorous Stance***	2	1 Suspension Field	0.24
2 Titanic Growth	0.3	1 Debilitating Injury	0.14
1 Dromoka’s Command	6	1 Abzan Ascendancy	0.3
1 Collected Company	18	1 Citadel Siege	0.72
2 Pacifism	0.5	1 Ancestral Vengeance	0.14

2 Blossoming Sands	0.3	2 Jungle Hollow	0.3
2 Evolving Wilds	0.44	1 Sandsteppe Citadel***	0.69
1 Windswept Heath	14	2 Scoured Barrens	0.3
11 Plains	0	2 Blossoming Sands	0.3
10 Forest	0	7 Plains	0
		6 Swamp	0
		6 Forest	0
Total Cost:	$51.83	Total Cost:	$16.74

The MSRP cost of the clash pack is $24.99, so looking at these two decks priced at $25 feels like highway robbery. Collected Company and Windswept Heath makes this a very juicy pickup indeed. On top of that they decided to throw in Dromoka’s Command, Siege Rhino, Honored Hierarch, and even Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit for fun.

The retail value of the singles versus the MSRP of the deck doesn’t automatically mean that everyone should buy this. Yet, I’m pretty sure this is the first clash pack released that is more than double its MSRP value in singles if you were to pay TCGPlayer Median for them. I’m wondering if that means the singles in the clash pack will drop significantly or if this clash pack will sell above MSRP for its life in Standard due to the value of the cards.

Big Reprints

Collected Company

So this card is almost $20 TCG Mid right now as a Standard legal rare. Only out since April, Collected Company has already spiked three times due to Modern hype and the amount of decks that it has helped to push in the Modern format, on top of Standard demand in decks like Devotion to Green and Selesnya Aggro. Please realize though that this card isn’t Snapcaster Mage, so I don’t think that the $20 and higher price point is going to be sustainable for long.

It took a long time for Snapcaster Mage to break the $25 barrier. While it was in Standard, not only did it NOT receive the clash pack treatment but it also never went far above $25 as a fair trade price and could easily be acquired in cash or retail for $20 or less. Collected Company isn’t going to be nearly as ubiquitous as something like Snapcaster Mage. I mean, Birthing Pod decks at one point was putting up numbers in the mid-30% range of Top 8’s in Modern and even Pod never went farther than $20.

Standard legal cards are tricky, though. Since CoCo is so popular in both Standard and Modern the new price could be sticking. However, with the clash pack reprinting I’m guessing that something similar to what happened to Courser of Kruphix is going to happen to CoCo.

See that dip there in Jan 2015? That’s about the time the clash pack came out. Courser dropped $5 and never recovered in price. Now, CoCo also has significantly more Modern demand going for it, which is part of the reason the price is so wild right now. Though I feel that as more Dragons of Tarkir packs are busted that the hype will die down and that Collected Company will settle between $12 and $15 for the rest of its Standard life with a dip at rotation. However, if you were savvy enough to get in on Collected Comapny at $4 prerelease prices then definitely get rid of any extras you have before the price starts dipping again. This is the highest we’re going to see it for a while, and the clash pack reprint means the price is only going down.

Windswept Heath

I don’t think the clash pack printings are going to have any effect at all on Windswept Heath’s price in the near future, other than to stabilize it further at $15 compared to the other currently Standard legal fetchlands. The price isn’t going to lower significantly, as I don’t think we’ll ever see sub-$10 fetchlands in Standard since they are so vital to mana bases in the format and beyond.

This is a great opportunity to get in on Windswept Heath once copies from the clash packs saturate the market, since I’m guessing that many players are going to want to pick this clash pack up for the value. Once the price on Heath stabilizes, it’s going to be nice to pick up extra copies to use as trade bait later in Heath’s Standard life.

Dromoka’s Command

Dromoka’s Command is never going above $6 due to the clash pack printing. It previously had highs of $10 closer to the release of Dragons of Tarkir, however now that the hype has died down and Standard might be taking a new direction as the fall approaches, demand for Dromoka’s Command has wavered and retailers have updated their prices to reflect that.

Siege Rhino

I think that similar to Whip of Erebos that the clash pack printing of Siege Rhino will reflect the pack version’s price. The alternate art isn’t great on this card, so the regular foils of Siege Rhino will still be worth more than the clash pack foil but will stabilize quite a bit due to the clash pack printing.

In general, I’m not sure if Siege Rhino will ever go much further than $6 retail during its remaining time in Standard. Abzan is already starting to wane in favor of other strategies, so the demand for the Rhino has also been waning.

Honored Hierarch

The jury’s still out on Honored Hiearch, as Magic Origins has just been released, however I think that it definitely has potential in Standard since Wizards is showing that they are moving away from one mana manadorks in favor of cards like Rattleclaw Mystic. My personal evaluation of the card is hot garbage, however I’m no professional player and also noted that Wizards released this as a rare which means that in playtesting it was too powerful as an uncommon (maybe for limited reasons?).

Either way, due to the clash pack printing and the already low price of $2.50 to $3, I don’t think that the Hierarch is going anywhere in price for the time being. Seems like it is tricky to get going in Standard, and even then your reward is only Birds of Paradise.

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit

Any chance that this card had of going over $3 was just killed. Now that there are going to be even more copies of this version of Anafenza out there the price isn’t moving. In fact, it could even go down based on the release of the clash pack.

If a later Standard strategy utilizes her, the price might move back up towards $3 but I don’t think there is room for growth here due to the clash pack reprinting.

Summary

The awesomeness of this clash pack can’t be understated. There is a ton of value here and I’m sure I’m not the only person that noticed. The big-box retailers are going to sell this clash pack for $30 or more based on the card values yet there are always deals to be had. I’m sure plenty of retailers are going to have this for $25 (or less even) so if you want to pick up the clash pack for a cheap copy of Collected Company and Windswept Heath for Standard play you can’t go wrong.

However, I would caution that once the singles dip in price that the deck will get less and less valuable and therefore less attractive as a pickup. For example, after Collected Company and Windswept Heath stabilize in price, most of the value cards are going to be $3 and less with just tons of bulk thrown in there. It’s going to be hard to trade or out the cards as more time goes on, so if you want to make the most of this clash pack then it is better to sell or trade the singles sooner rather than later.

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

Tradewind Rider – Riding the Tides of the Trade

June 29, 2015 Jared Yost 9 Comments

Today I would like to give a few thoughts on my experiences with trading, both past and present. Consider what I’ve experienced in the past, how trading happens today and what the differences between past and current trading are, this will be more of an observation piece than anything so take it with a grain of salt. Not everyone might experience what I do when trading, and hopefully your trades are positive and productive. Certainly, mobile trading applications for phones have made trading the fairest it has ever been. However, there are downsides to this new approach to trading.

Is it worth it?

To start things off, I’ve been wondering whether or not trading is a even worthwhile endeavor for me anymore. I’ve traded plenty over the years but where has it ultimately lead me? I will honestly say that my personal collection has risen in value more on the backs of cards that I’ve picked up from vendors at larger events or online than it ever really has through trading. I admit that this may not be the case anymore, due the cat being out of the bag with Legacy (and even Vintage) staples seeing insanely large price increases based on the surge of popularity Magic has experienced in recent years, though Modern seems to be the next point of entry where buying staples before the seasonal spikes seems to be rewarding me plenty. Why spend a large amount of time trading when I have a good thing going?

Trading for speculative targets is really hard, as the people you’re trading with will almost always never have the exact card that you’re looking for. When you trade, you really only have the option of looking at exactly what they have, and then they need to want something that you have, and then the values of those items needs to be equal (heaven forbid it be even $2 off, otherwise no deal!). See how trading can lose its appeal pretty quickly for something like speculating?

Even for other times that I have traded, the three step process of:

1) I need to find something they have that I want at this point in time.

2) They need to find something I have that they want at this point in time.

3) Those needs/wants need to converge within at least $1.50-$2.00 of each other, and even that usually needs to be in my trading partner’s favor.

Trading isn’t easy anymore and I’m not the only one who thinks this way. Plenty of people who I regularly play with have basically sworn off all trading other than trading done between close friends that have interacted closely over a significant period of time. Maybe we’re all just old school, since for the large majority of our Magic-playing careers the mobile trading apps didn’t exist and so we didn’t really care if we lost a few dollars on a trade here and there. Ultimately though, I think that I and my friends are just going to have to suck it up, learn to adapt, and know how to maximize the usefulness of the mobile trading apps if we’re going to look into trading outside our merry band of travelers. The dollars and cents matter so much these days for trading, and learning how to navigate the close scenarios so that both parties are happy has become both a skill and a science.

On the flip side of this coin, trading can be really easy too. Unfortunately, when it’s really easy you know that someone is getting ripped off, and the only people that are OK with this are the sharkiest of sharks. These are the nightmare situations that many of us have lived through, where for example at the beginning of our Magic playing days we want to trade some of those dumb rare lands we opened up for big creatures that are going to smash people’s faces in. Having almost no background on the secondary market, we figured that each rare is about equal to acquire so hey there pal, go right ahead and take this land off me that I had no intention of playing anyways! Shortly after while telling someone about this “deal” we realize how dumb it was and feel bad that we could have gotten probably twenty times the amount of cards for that land.

From this perspective, mobile trading apps have been a godsend. Players no longer need to worry that they’re getting ripped off if they are new to the game and want to start branching out into trading to expand their collection. Yet, what many newer players don’t realize is that almost all of the rares or cards that they want will eventually become bulk anyways once they rotate from Standard, so focusing on losing a few dollars is almost always going to be an exercise in futility in the long run. The only time where you really need to be concerned about losing dollars in a trade is if the card is a chase mythic / rare from the set that is going to have eternal playability. However, if a player is new they know nothing about eternal formats anyways! Catch-22 if I ever saw one.
This particular scenario is what makes trading so grindy these days. I used to be able to trade with five people in the span of ten minutes. Now, I’m lucky if I can execute one trade in fifteen minutes between my partner finding something, looking up all the prices of everything they’re considering, and then making sure to equalize everything once the majority of the trade has been put into the trading apps. Not exactly an a great use of my time, and as the saying goes time is money.

All in all, the adoption of mobile trading apps has been both a positive and a negative thing. It is positive in that both parties can verify that they are getting a fair deal, no matter what price sources you’re using for the trade. Are we using Star City prices for the trade? No problem, going from Star City to Star City is fine since even though they’re marked up in the first place the markup applies from bulk through the mythic rares. We using TCG Mid? Even better, the mid level prices better reflect condition and they can be adjusted accordingly on the applications.

Moving online?

I’m thinking that since in-person trading hasn’t been fruitful for me recently, that websites like Deckbox and Pucatrade can offer me easy ways of being able to trade online. They appear to have the best of both worlds – the convenience of trading whenever, having the best fair trade price, and having a ton of selection right? However, these services also have their issues.

They are quite cutthroat. Think about this for a second – there are people out there who develop scripts specifically in order to maximize the number of trades that they see, in order to make sure that they are the first to be able to trade with a user if they have cards that they want. How is a human going to compete with something like that? You can’t, so the issue of finding someone to send cards to is going to be a big hurdle to overcome without knowing this. It might be a learning curve or whatever, so I’m sure that if you find a way to execute trades that works for you, you’ll get the hang of it and quickly become used to the vanishing wants of the system. However, I’m guessing that it is darn frustrating getting started with the services.

The online trading services also utilize the mail, which is going to involve USPS and beyond if we’re shipping internationally, so be prepared to wait up to a month to get those cards you want. Also, people that trade online seem to be extremely picky about condition, and why shouldn’t they? It’s advertised at a particular condition, and if it doesn’t meet that condition then the system or users should offer some type of recourse for the misleading listing. As many of us have experienced the definition of NM can actually vary widely from person to person. In other words, if it’s not “NM” there are going to be big problems and headaches for all. All in all, these complaints are pretty minor and once you set your expectations then the services are a good way to trade.

At the end of the day, the ultimate question is – Is it worth it to trade? For in person trades, I’m finding that for my needs that trading in person is becoming more and more of hassle. I’m generally only looking for specific cards, and my partners usually are too, and many times since they don’t have anything specific in their binder they usually refuse to trade anyways even if I become interested in smaller priced items that I wanted to pick up on a whim when I saw them that moment. Even when there is a trade to be made, the amount of time spent looking up the prices, accounting for conditioning, and then ensuring that everything is matched up according to whatever fair trade price is being used, simply wears me out. I feel exhausted when I finish a trade this way.
Online trading is where the new frontier is. I’m not sure if the issue of postage will ever be resolved, however the issues of finding the trades you want to make and to account for condition (PucaTrade, I’m specifically looking to you here) are becoming better and better every day. Condition is a simple policy change and site update, while the amount of trades is all based on user base and more users means that more trade opportunities are going to open up. I feel like right now, even with the issues that online trading has, that it won’t be nearly as draining on my brain and psyche as in person trading has become.

…

Where do you all stand on trading these days? Is my experience typical of most players / traders or are your trades a more smooth and pleasant experience? I know that many of us on MTGPrice are starting to hop on the PucaTrade bandwagon pretty hard, and it looks like many of our trades are being executed successfully there. What have been some negative experiences of PucaTrade that you’ve encountered, or feel like you might run into eventually? Do Deckbox or other online services compare in any way to PucaTrade?

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

Magic Origins: A First Look

June 22, 2015 Jared Yost 8 Comments

Magic Origins spoilers have slowly been trickling out from the Mothership and beyond, so let’s take a look at some of the previews we’ve been given so far and what it could mean for Standard and other formats.

Planeswalkers

The planeswalkers of the set have been spoiled and it’s the first time we’ve seen walkers that start as legendary creatures and transform into planeswalkers when a condition is met for them to trigger their “spark”.

Kytheon / Gideon

Wow, this has got to be the most insane Savannah Lions variant the Magic community has received yet! So this is what a one mana planeswalker looks like (well, sort of). We’ve all wondered how Wizards would be able to print a planeswalker at one mana as a balanced card and I think we have our answer here.

Of course, the only downside to Kytheon is his legendary status. Only being able to have one Savannah Lions out on the field at a time is a bummer in white weenie decks but the great thing here is that he dies pretty easily, so the odds of you having one stuck in your hand for a long time are almost zero. A similar case study here is Isamaru, Hound of Konda. Even though it is also a legendary creature, in Kamigawa Standard he was still played as three to four copies per aggro deck even with the legendary drawback. This makes me think that the legendary status will matter but not as much as as legendary creatures that cost three or more mana. But wait, I haven’t even discussed the indestructibility! For three mana, having a way to ensure that Kytheon becomes Gideon is super important for such a fragile 2/1 body. You could also just sit on him if you need a blocker, making him indestructible and chumping non-tramplers all day. So basically, the card is nothing but upside as long as you don’t get another one or two of them stuck in your opening hand or within your opening draws.

The Gideon counterpart is also pretty awesome. Gideon Jura was certainly played in Rise of Eldrazi standard, and Kytheon offers us a Jura-mini just for attacking and beating face. Unfortunately, this Gideon doesn’t kill creatures (let’s be real, for one mana that would just be way too powerful to -2 to kill a creature) but it can boost its loyalty very quickly and mess with your opponent’s combat. Think of the +2 as an opposite Frenzied Goblin. Instead of being unable to block, the creature is forced to attack Gideon, removing it from attacking your face and thus “removing it from combat” and being able to block when your next combat phase comes along. The +1 also affects combat quite nicely, by having an attacker become indestructible or untapping an already tapped attacker and having an indestructible blocker for next turn.

All in all, Kytheon / Gideon is a very solid card and I expect it to see a ton of Standard play, especially in the fall when aggro decks will tend to gravitate towards the Top 8 of tournaments.

Jace

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Telepath Unbound text:

+1: Up to one target creature gets -2/-0 until your next turn.

-3: You may cast target instant or sorcery card from your graveyard this turn. If that card would be put into your graveyard this turn, exile it instead.

-9: You get an emblem with “Whenever you cast a spell, target opponent puts the top five cards of his or her library into his or her graveyard”.

Loyalty 5

Jace certainly feels like he has potential for Standard as well. Merfolk Looter has been well received in Standard environments throughout the years and a Looter with upside is very appealing. My current thinking is that he will slot into the Sidisi-Whip deck quite nicely, and will continue to support Sidisi, Brood Tyrant after Theros block rotates from Standard.

After filling up your graveyard, Jace can then create a mini Yawgmoth’s Will situation that gives one of your instant or sorcery cards flashback until end of turn. Even the ultimate ability is kind of cool, since it allows you to put a fairly fast clock on your opponent since all of your spells will also have Tome Scour spliced onto them.

All in all, this Jace doesn’t excite me in quite the way that Kytheon / Gideon did, but the control and Sidisi players among us will have a cool new toy to play with soon.

Liliana

I’m a huge fan of Liliana in eternal formats. I’m thinking that the new wave of Collected Company decks in Modern might try experimenting with her since they have so many ways of sacrificing creatures for value. Unfortunately, with the banning of Birthing Pod there are fewer ways to sacrifice your own creatures within the deck, but I think there are enough tools in a format like Modern to really push Liliana to the next level.

In terms of Standard, I’m not sure what type of sacrifice outlets we’re going to be getting in the future but currently the ones that exist are meh at best. She has weak stats for the mana cost and can be removed very easily before being able to be transformed into her ‘walker form. I think people will try to make her work in Standard decks but I’m not sure if the support exists to really get your mana’s worth.

Chandra

*Sigh*, why is Chandra always so bad? Red players never get a break. Remember Tibalt? Chandra isn’t that bad, but she is still pretty boring and lackluster compared to the other ‘walkers seen so far.

You have to do soo much work to transform her. However, one interesting trick is that you can attack with her to deal two damage, then cast a red spell during your second main phase to untap her and then tap her for the third damage in order to transform her into a ‘walker. So, sometimes you will only need one spell to transform her rather than two.

The planeswalker side is fine. +1 for two face damage is pretty nice, -2 for two creature damage is alright, and the ultimate ability if you get it off is certainly devastating. However, I’m just not sure that this Chandra has what it takes to see Standard play. She seems even more frail to me than Liliana, and I think that Liliana is going to have a hard time seeing Standard play currently. I think she would have been much better with Haste, however I didn’t do any of the play testing with the card to know if that would be too good or not.

Nissa

The text here is hard to make out on the right, so here is the Sage Animist text:

+1: Reveal the top card of your library. If it’s a land card, put it onto the battlefield. Otherwise, put it into your hand.

-2: Put a legendary 4/4 green Elemental creature token named Ashaya, the Awoken World onto the battlefield.

-7: Untap up to six target lands. They become 6/6 Elemental creatures. They’re still lands.

Loyalty 3

Creature Nissa is definitely underwhelming. A strictly worse Civic Wayfinder, Nissa doesn’t have much going for her ability-wise. Hey, at least she’s better than Chandra right!?

Seriously though, she has some pretty nice late game potential that makes up for underwhelming creature version. Casting her later in the game and activating the planeswalker transformation right away will be the most optimal play. Once Nissa becomes a planeswalker, it’s all upside from there. Her abilities are all very good. +1 to draw a card / drop a land, -2 to create a creature to protect herself (which can be activated right away), and then finally having a game ending -7 if the opportunity presents itself is a nice touch.

Keeping everything in mind, I do think Nissa will see Standard play since green midrange decks will be able to pretty consistently transform her since they ramp up to seven lands pretty quickly and her creature form is fine as a 2/2 blocker that gets you your next land drop.

Other Spoilers

Besides planeswalkers, we’ve gotten some other spoilers that I’d like to go over quickly here.

Avaricious Dragon seems cool and all since we just received a set that gave us “dragons matter” cards. However, I don’t think it is quite as good as it seems at first glance. A 4/4 flyer for 2RR has already been filled by Thunderbreak Regent nicely and I’m not sure if the decks that play Thunderbreak Regent want this card. I’m thinking that if this card sees play at all, it is going to be as the top of the curve in Red Deck Wins. In other words, it could certainly see play in Atarka Red as the finisher of choice once you’ve exhausted your hand of all the cheap one and two mana spells.

The unfortunate thing about the dragon is that it makes you discard your entire hand right away, since it triggers during your end step. So, I guess you have to be playing a super greedy deck as the card’s name implies. Not that burn is greedy or anything, but you could certainly make it greedier by including one or two of these bad boys in your list.

Ravaging Blaze itself isn’t that exciting to me, but the Spell Mastery ability is. See, Wizards has taken the direction of Magic much further towards creature based dominance rather than spell dominance. Now, they have created an effect that rewards you for playing instants and sorceries! I’m sure they’ve nerfed this ability in some way to make sure that it won’t be abused in Standard or other eternal formats, but it’s good to know that Wizards is also keeping mind that they need good instants and sorceries in order to keep the game fresh for players. Creature based dominance is fine, but when spells keep costing more and more mana for the same effect over the years it certainly gets annoying. Hopefully, we’ll get some exciting Spell Mastery cards that might even shake things up in eternal formats.

Dwynen (I keep saying Dy-wen in my head) is actually pretty good. An elf lord with reach, an extra ability, and a huge butt? I think this card will see play somewhere along the lines in a Constructed format, and even if it doesn’t this card will be casual gold for years to come. Lord effects are very popular among casual players, and Dwynen provides that effect on a legendary creature which is also nice for the Commander players among us. I honestly don’t think this card will ever be bulk since the lord effect and life gain ability are two things that casuals love. Plus, reach and an additional point of toughness just because? That’s just icing on the cake.

Really, Chandra’s parents needed a card? I’m not sure what role they play in her story or even the overall story of Magic as a whole, however I’m glad that they printed this card because it’s actually very unique for a red card.

I like the direction Wizards is taking red with creating Human Artificers like this card and Feldon. Though their has been a smattering of red artificers in the past, Daretti and company have reintroduced the red artificer creature subtype in a big way. This card is also breaking some color pie boundaries. A red card that generates 1/1 flying tokens when it enters the battlefield? That’s pretty sweet and definitely seems Standard playable to me.

However, the best part is that you can shock creatures and players with artifacts justs like Siege-Gang Commander does with goblins. So not only are you getting 1/1 flying Thopters with this card, but if it lives then it can start shocking things by sacrificing artifacts. That seems pretty powerful to me.

However, I guess the ultimate question is – is it good enough for Standard? I don’t really see this card being played in eternal formats, and maybe my own love for Siege-Gang Commander is making me think this card is much better than it actually is.

Wrapping Up

All the cards I’ve discussed today shouldn’t be preordered – I don’t think any of them are powerful enough to sustain their current preorder prices. However, they definitely offer a nice glimpse into what the future of Standard might look like. All of the planeswalkers seem playable, even Chandra if enough good red spell support is provided, so we’ll just have to wait and see what other support they are given (if any) once the rest of the spoilers are revealed.

What do you guys think? Did I miss the mark on some of my evaluations or do you also see some of the same connections and trends that I’ve noticed?

Jared Yost, The Gilded Goblin

In Modern Masters’ Wake

June 8, 2015 Jared Yost 19 Comments

This week I’d like to take a look at the most played cards in Modern, how Modern Masters 2015 has affected their prices, and what the future holds for many of these cards – including those which did not get reprinted.

Starting Thoughts – Tarmogoyf and Other Leaders in the Set

Based on my observations from Modern Masters 2013, we’re going to be in for another interesting ride this time around as well. Unlike last time, we had up-to-the-minute price tracking at GP Vegas because MTGPrice had authors on the floor keeping track of the event for everyone. This enabled us as a community to see in real time what the dealers were paying for certain cards from the set that weekend. Why is the GP weekend important? Because it shows us which cards the dealers felt were going to be the most important going forward by having their buylists reflect that confidence all at once (due to the massive influx of tons of people opening expensive cards and wanting to offload them).

Hey, even Standard cards made the list! Thanks for the snapshot Douglas Johnson.

As Corbin mentioned in his post on June 4th, the dealers had to compete with buylist prices for chase cards like Tarmogoyf because even though only one or two vendors had a high buylist price for the card initially (the $130 and higher range) that meant that everyone else eventually had to raise their buylist prices in order to snag some Tarmogoyfs for themselves.

As they say, history is doomed to repeat itself and Tarmogoyf is no exception. Don’t get me wrong. This time the price of card did drop. Going from $220 to $170-$180 is definitely a discount. Yet, is it good enough? I’m sure we’re all thinking to ourselves that a 22% discount isn’t really that great in this case since the card is still pretty darn close to $200 per copy, which is what sets like MM15 are supposed to remedy. Many players were expecting ‘Goyf to fall much harder than this. A lot of us in the mtgfinance community we’re pretty solid believers in the idea that ‘Goyf might even drop into the double digits, at least for a while. Yet, the card is still as wildly popular and in demand as ever and an entire slew of fresh reprints hasn’t really made a large impact in the retail price.

Again, let’s go back to the release of Modern Masters 2013. That time, ‘Goyf didn’t move in price at all. It was $120 before the release and stayed $120 after the release. There are two reasons for this. The first is that ‘Goyf was (yet again) printed at mythic rather than rare. I can understand why Wizards printed it at mythic the first time around – they wanted to make sure that they didn’t crash the price of the card and create a situation similar to Chronicles. This time around they could have done things differently though. They knew that printing ‘Goyf at mythic wasn’t going to do anything to its price in the long term. This leads to the second reason that ‘Goyf didn’t move in price this time and last – the player base increase. Once you get a taste of the ‘Goyf, well you just can’t have only one. You need a full playset in order to make it work in Modern. Jund just isn’t the same without four of them. It also doesn’t help that Jund has been doing really well in Modern recently, further exacerbating the demand for Tarmogoyfs in the format.

I think Wizards made a big mistake not printing ‘Goyf at rare this time around. They knew what happened last time, knew that players were still going to demand a large amount of ‘Goyfs this time, and still decided to keep it at mythic and guaranteeing it an absurdly high price. If it was a rare we wouldn’t be seeing the $180+ retail prices but I still think that ‘Goyf would be in the low $100s based on the demand we’ve been seeing in Vegas and beyond. As it is, by the end of the year we all know that ‘Goyf is going back to $200 and beyond as time continues. Again players who hoped to pick up ‘Goyfs cheap have had those hopes dashed.

Alright, alright, enough about ‘Goyf. I’m sure you’ve heard about him to death at this point and I’ve said what I have to say on the matter. Let’s see some prices on other staples. Also, let’s take a look at the data with the previous retail prices and see how much of discount we’re getting on singles now.

CARD NAME	FAIR TRADE PRICE	FAIR TRADE PRICE (January 2015)	% DIFFERENCE
Tarmogoyf	$172.99	$210.00	17.62%
Vendilion Clique	$56.65	$80.00	29.19%
Dark Confidant	$48.99	$102.00	51.97%
Mox Opal	$40.32	$54.00	25.33%
Noble Hierarch	$38.28	$74.00	48.27%
Cryptic Command	$35.70	$63.00	43.33%
Bitterblossom	$35.46	$44.00	19.41%
Karn Liberated	$33.99	$50.00	32.02%
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn	$33.17	$56.00	40.77%
Kozilek, Butcher of Truth	$31.43	$65.00	51.65%
Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre	$24.93	$44.00	43.34%
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite	$24.52	$30.00 (highest price $40 in Apr-May)	38.70%
Fulminator Mage	$21.54	$44.00	51.05%
Spellskite	$18.86	$22.00	14.27%
Iona, Shield of Emeria	$17.39	$30.00	42.03%
Splinter Twin	$17.36	$20.00 (highest price $30 in Apr-May)	42.13%
Leyline of Sanctity	$14.99	$32.00	53.16%
Daybreak Coronet	$14.68	$35.00	58.06%
Primeval Titan	$14.28	$15.00	4.80%
Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker	$14.16	$27.00	47.56%
Wilt-Leaf Liege	$11.00	$15.00 (highest price $30 in Apr-May)	63.33%
Tezzeret the Seeker	$9.67	$15.00	35.53%
Blinkmoth Nexus	$8.12	$11.00	26.18%
Remand	$8.10	$12.00	32.50%
All Is Dust	$6.97	$22.00	68.32%
Eye of Ugin	$4.45	$9.00 (highest price $18 in Apr-May)	75.28%
Creakwood Liege	$3.99	$13.00	69.31%
Hurkyl’s Recall	$3.98	$12.00	66.83%
Etched Champion	$3.96	$6.00	34.00%
Surgical Extraction	$3.84	$7.00	45.14%
Necroskitter	$2.63	$6.00	56.17%
Mirran Crusader	$2.52	$3.50	28.00%
Puppeteer Clique	$2.47	$6.00	58.83%
Lightning Bolt	$2.33	$2.00 – $3.00	22.33%
Apocalypse Hydra	$2.25	$10.00	77.50%
Electrolyze	$1.97	$3.00	34.33%
Mystic Snake	$1.93	$2.50	22.80%

(All cards in MM 2015 with a buylist price of $1 or more. Bolded all discounts of 35% or less to see which cards were the least affected by reprinting).

OK, so taking a look at the cards that were the least affected by the reprint. So far, the top five are:

Primeval Titan, 5%
Spellskite, 14%
Tarmogoyf, 18%
Bitterblossom, 20%
Mox Opal, 25%

This is pretty interesting to me – who would have thought that Primeval Titan would still be about the same price after the reprint? The only deck it’s played in is Amulet Bloom, a deck that was almost destroyed by the banning of its champion Speck if not for the superb finish of Justin Cohen at GP DC. Also, it’s banned in Commander! Where is this demand coming from!? Well, my guess is that more people became very interested in Bloom Titan after seeing Justin smash face with it, and this makes me think that other pieces of the deck that haven’t been reprinted (and there a few – Azusa, Hive Mind, Summoner’s Pact, Gemstone Mine, etc.) will soon be under someone’s radar.

Though I shouldn’t be surprised, I’m still pretty confused as to why Spellskite hasn’t dropped much in price. The card is mainly sideboard tech, albeit one that is included in basically everyone’s sideboard in Modern, but for a reprint to not move the price more than 15% is pretty telling. This means that many more people are trying to pick up Spellskite in order to combat the onslaught of Twin variants and decks that pack tons of spot removal. Due to Phyrexian mana, it truly is an evergreen card that can perform well in every deck / sideboard.

Bitterblossom is yet another interesting case – why drop just 20% when it’s only played in Tier 2 strategies Black/White tokens and Faeries? In this case, mythic rare scarcity could be playing a part in the price sustainability. However, the first printing of Bitterblossom was at rare — unlike Primeval Titan, which has always been a mythic. Could this be telling us that players getting into Modern are starting with B/W Tokens (due to the event deck) or Faeries? Here are some other cards from those decks that have started jumping or might jump soon:

B/W Tokens
Faeries

Open Discussion – Cards Not in the Set and Their Futures

Already we’ve seen several cards start climbing up in price due to not being in Modern Masters 2015.

Blood Moon – This card has spiked to $50 due to a buyout, but I’m not sure if it can sustain that price. Blood Moon is great in Modern but only because people are playing greedy, three-color decks that can be hosed by it. Plus, in certain matchups it can be dead. The card was printed in Chronicles, so there are tons of these out there. I think if you want to pick up Blood Moons you will unfortunately have to wait.

Urza’s Mine (and others) – Another buyout on TCGPlayer, this card will increase in price but the $18 I’m seeing it listed at won’t stick. However, this buyout will get people to notice that Tron lands were not in MM15 so expect the prices of others to tick up over time as well.

Omniscience – MTGPrice authors from Vegas were tweeting and writing updates about how Omniscience seems to have been bought up by a ton of the vendors and that they were continuing to seek more copies. This is a Modern legal card, however demand here is coming from Legacy (since Omni-Show is currently one of the best decks in the format) and casual/EDH demand. Still though, regular copies are closing in on $35 and foils have broken past $100 due to not being seen in Modern Masters 2015.

Snapcaster Mage – Everyone’s “duh” pick for going up in price since we knew Innistrad wasn’t part of the MM15 set, Snapcaster has now broken through $60 and I don’t see him stopping there until the next reprint. He is currently one of the most played cards in Modern. Foils have yet to catch up to the regular price, so if that’s your thing now would be the time to get in on foil Snapcaster Mages.

Inkmoth Nexus – Blinkmoth Nexus was given the nod for MM15, which means that cousin Inkmoth was ripe for a price increase. This was probably one of the fastest cards to spike after MM15 was fully spoiled. I expect that Inkmoth will continue to go up since the decrease in price of Mox Opal and Etched Champion means that other parts of the deck will become more expensive over time. Steel Overseer is probably next in line for a price hike.

Sower of Temptation – Casual and Modern sideboard demand has driven up the price of Sower to $25, and I can see it continuing to climb since Lorwyn is such a hard-to-find set. Be aware, though: this card is easily reprintable.

Horizon Canopy and Grove of the Burnwillows – How these lands managed to dodge a reprint, I’ll never know, but they did so expect prices to start climbing up to match demand for Tron and Bogles players out there. One theory that Burnwillows didn’t get the reprint is because they knew Birthing Pod would be banned, so one of primary drivers for demand is now gone.

Twilight Mire (and other filter lands) – Though they didn’t get a reprint and will continue to creep up, I still advocate avoiding these lands at all cost. Once they get reprinted, they will be hit hard so only get enough copies for your immediate needs and nothing more.

Rings of Brighthearth – With non-foil copies clocking in over $20, this card has infinite casual demand behind it. Again though, like filter lands once the inevitable reprint occurs it will bottom out hard and take forever to recover. Acquire with care.

Might of Old Krosa – Due to the reprint dodge, these have hit $9 and I don’t see them stopping since Infect is a viable Modern strategy.

Choke – An amazing sideboard card in Modern and even Legacy, I expect Choke to also creep up over time due to not getting a reprint.

Engineered Explosives – My final card mention is E.E., which according to floor reports was one of the sought after cards by vendors in the Modern Masters three GP weekend. It has been slowly climbing up to $10 but I still think it has legs and will grow more over time.

Too Many Cards, So Little Time

I believe Jason was the first to mention this but it’s pretty obvious in retrospect – Wizards can’t reprint everything. I’m sure you’re starting to get the picture at this point, but the release of Modern Masters 2015 caused just as many (if not more) price hikes as it did discounts for cards. For several Modern staples, the prices are now low enough that getting in on a deck like Splinter Twin or Affinity is starting to look plausible for many folks. However, the parts that weren’t reprinted will start rising due to the demand of the other cards and probably make it a wash in the end for those players who pick up singles more slowly than others. That’s all for this week, thanks for reading.

MTGPrice Blog

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