We’re in a lovely place now with The Hobbit soaking up attention, and we’re about to start getting Reality Fracture promos, plus Secret Lair drops every other week (or more if they wanna get spicy!) taking our money.
But we never want to lose sight of where we’ve been. I’ve established before that generally speaking, 4-6 months is the time you want to wait on a set before buying specs, and handily, we’ve reached that timeframe for both Secrets of Strixhaven and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles.
So let’s talk about a few of the cards that have gotten to a lovely price, especially compared to their drop rate or usage numbers, and decide what’s worth speculating on.
The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
On Monday, a Secret Lair Commander deck drops. Normally, this doesn’t merit a whole article, as the decks have all generally been winners if you’re able to buy them in the less-than-60 minutes they are available. They have a great theme, gorgeous foils, and represent a big win if you get it and seething hatred if you’re not able to.
Because, of course, most of the folks who do get one decide to resell it for a substantial profit. You can argue about bots and ethics all you like, but I’m here to talk about the way Wizards has decided to tackle this beast: by making people wait nearly a year.
Let’s talk about why this is happening now, what it signifies, and what sorts of profits we might expect.
So back in May, the Goblin Storm deck, with lots of Wizard of Barge art, went on sale and was gone in something like 30 minutes. There was an outcry from folks who didn’t want to pay to buy the deck from resellers, and most especially, the artist behind the cards was upset, with this post on social media:
This is understandable. A lot of work and care went into this, and they’ve put a lot into a sweet brand with Goblins, and want the maximum number of people to enjoy the deck.
But it sold out super fast, it’s now going for about three times the list price of $150, and Wizards made their money.
We need to acknowledge that Wizards of the Coast has one of the greatest profit margins ever. They pay their staff to design cards, and they pay (grudgingly and with not enough money) artists for art to go on the cards, but their product costs are literally paper and packaging. Secret Lairs especially are incredible generators of profit for the company, with the cost to make a single $30 nonfoil drop likely in the $2-$5 range.
The decks are more expensive and time-consuming to make, and thus cost more. I fully expect the decks to move up to $200 soon, along with an increase to $40/$50 as the base price for new Secret Lair drops. The profits are too tempting, and Magic needs to keep being the only profitable part of Hasbro.
As a result, the forthcoming Hatsune Miku deck has a new twist, something to help ease the pain. I want to let Matthew Hodgins, the director of Secret Lair, say it directly:
“For this release, Secret Lair is introducing a 24-hour order window to help more fans get the deck. Orders placed between Monday, August 10, 2026, 9 a.m. PT and Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 8:59 a.m. PT will be fulfilled. A limited quantity will be available to ship right away, while additional orders placed during the window are expected to ship in May 2027 in North America and June 2027 in the EU and the UK.”
“Secret Lair has a tradition of experimentation, so we’re trying something kind of new here that harkens back to the early, early days of Secret Lair to meet demand where we think it will be highest—on fully playable products. This sale is an experiment (and, yes, a direct response to Goblin Storm) with introducing a 24-hour limited order window on products meant to be playable out of the box. So, this could include things like Commander decks, specialty products like the Secret Lair Dandân Deck, or anything else wild we think of down the line that may have the unique combination of high demand and out-of-the-box playability. If it goes well, we may create a new storefront (kind of like the Chaos Vault) for these types of sales. If we see issues, we may go back to the drawing board. We’ll see how it goes and check in soon.”
We have a lot to unpack here, but let’s start with the second paragraph. They want to give people a chance to buy the deck at MSRP who miss out on the initial window. By this point, there’s optimized processes for getting stuff via the Secret Lair site (if you want to know how ProTraders do it, come join up!) so there’s not a lot of technical ways to help people get copies. The printers are also incredibly booked up, as we know from the Their Magic Is Limitless sale, where people could buy the Lairs for delivery in April 2027. I’m certain Wizards would love to print twice as many Miku decks ahead of time, but there just isn’t time to do that.
So now Wizards is going to delay your purchase for nearly a year, pushing everything back to May 2027. It seems like they won’t charge you, as ProTrader experiences reported that for Their Magic Is Limitless, only orders totaling over $2,000 were immediately charged. That might differ with Miku, just as a disclaimer. This is how it happened for some folks, and Wizards might fiddle with some settings.
We’ll get to profits in a moment, but it needs to be said that Wizards is already feeling the effects of overbooking their printers’ capabilities. My Little Pony Lairs were delayed this summer by three months, and they are promising different arrival dates for the US and EU customers. I fully expect the second wave of Miku decks to be delayed as well, not out of malice, but just the chaos of existence stepping in and stuff happening. A lot can happen between now and May, so that’s why I think the gratification will end up further delayed.
The hilarious part is, my plan and recommendation for the Miku deck remains the same: buy all that you can. If you get some of the early copies, those will profit nicely. If you have to wait, then wait. By the time the second wave arrives, it’ll feel like a new experience all over again. I’m convinced that Wizards is doing this more for the optics than for the actual amount, but perhaps I’m wrong and their profit margins soar. After all, if they charge us now, they are getting an interest-free loan for the better part of a year.
I’m going to be watching the prices of the deck and the singles as time passes, to see what the awareness of a second wave will do to prices. Logically, it would make sense if things stayed cheap in anticipation of that second wave, but Magic players are not the patient type. They want what they want, and the collector urges are incredibly strong. The really hilarious thing to watch will be what the prices are after the second wave hits, and we know no more is coming. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the decks hit their highest price right after those are in hand.
So good luck on Monday, and know that your profits will be strong now and also strong when the encore arrives.
There’s a case to be made that in Magic finance, you should never sell. We are entering a new level of collectability, where Lord of the Rings Collector Booster boxes are reaching heights never before thought of, leaving us to wonder ‘why did we sell out and take 200% profits?’ After all, if you bought Bitcoin at a dollar each and sold at $100, you made a ton, but then you feel like an idiot when it hit $100,000 per. Magic isn’t there yet, but with some recent growth, the analogy is apt.
I sympathize with you on feeling like we must hoard everything, a dragon sitting atop a mountain of gold, reluctant to let go of even a coin, for it is ours and it is precious. However, down that path leads not just madness, but missing out on value, and then you get to feel bad in a whole new way.
So today, I want to go over how we differentiate between a spike we sell into and when we resist, how to plan, and a method that both takes your profits and saves some for future value.
The rest of this content is only visible to ProTrader members.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
A while back, there was a contest with the Secret Lair website, to give a definitive answer of which is better: dogs or cats. Cats won, and now we get a Secret Lair focused on cats. There were a lot of ways this drop could have gone, with generic cute cats, terrifying jungle predators, or prehistoric sabertooth tigers. Instead, we got a couple of IP from generations ago, and some interesting card choices. Let’s talk about each of the eight drops and what’s worth it.
All of these drops are at $30 for the nonfoils and $40 for the foils. I expect that the shift for all Lairs to start at $40/$50 to happen in the not-too-distant future, but it’s nice that these are relatively cheap for now.
For each drop, I’ve listed the EDHREC number, and the reasonable price for a premium version, discounting stuff like Artist Proofs, 7th edition foils, or serialized cards. Please remember that EDHREC’s inclusion rate is biased towards cards that are in preconstructed decks, from the number of folks who upload a deck with a small handful of changes. It’s good data, but not perfect data, since so many players don’t bother to upload their decks.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
Rin and Seri, Inseparable
86,000
$50
Orim’s Chant
43,000
$40
Ponder
415,000
$12
Beast Within
388,000
$5
Sol Ring
1,300,000
Too many
I have issues with the choice of Garfield for Magic cards. It’s true he’s a cat, and that’s the theme, but this is a choice that reads old above all else. The list of famous cats is not a huge one, especially when you account for the popularity of the IP and therefore the price. Could this have been a Hello Kitty drop? Sure, but WotC likely wasn’t willing to pony up for that. Same with Lion King/Disney or Puss in Boots/ Dreamworks sort of thing. We could have gotten some Internet meme cats, I suppose.
Garfield is recognizable, and likely wasn’t too pricey to license, so that’s what we’ve got. The Rin and Seri is the best card price-wise, since the double-sided and the Lisa Frank versions are both in the $50 range, and the card is remarkably popular as a Commander, just outside the top 20 of the last two years. The other four cards will all end up in the $5-$10 range, so this Lair is likely a break-even and slow to gain over time.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
Swords to Plowshares
1,020,000
~$150–300
Counterspell
670,000
~$150–300
Dark Ritual
360,000
~$200–500
Earthquake
52,000
~$150–400
Fog
41,000
~$100–250
Top marks for the Richard Garfield meme crossover here, but this is a thoroughly lame drop. I listed the wide range of prices for versions including Alpha, but the inclusion numbers are not good for Fog and Quake, even if these are the first special frames for either of these cards. We’ve got so so many versions of these OG cards that this version just won’t break through. Pass.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
It That Betrays
115,000
$60
Maddening Cacophony
77,000
$20
Maddening Hex
49,000
$7
Hunter’s Insight
67,000
$1.50
Molten Collapse
24,000
$1
The value is here. The Eldrazi has never had a special frame, though it’s got a Secret Lair version with the full frame. Cacophony should hold at $10+, and the rest are leftovers. If you want to wait and get only the singles in Dump Week, I understand, and if you want to nab the Lairs and get foil full-art copies at $40, I am with you. I’m leaning towards Dump Week, but both are defensible positions.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
Court of Grace
87,800
$15
Reverent Mantra
3,820
$8
Windborn Muse
71,000
$12
Queen Marchesa
74,000
$25
Ruinous Ultimatum
185,000
$10
I think this is a secretly-strong Lair. The cards are rather mid, but Vanessa Stockard has a big following online and if you like sassy black cats (as a ton of people do), this is your jam. I’m planning on getting a few of these, mainly for the art. I’ve bemoaned before when great art gets mediocre cards, and this is another example of the phenomenon.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
Sheltered by Ghosts
28,000
$8
Spirit of the Hearth
9,500
$6
Witch Enchanter
42,000
$5
Wayfarer’s Bauble
485,000
$20
Boseiju, Who Shelters All
63,000
$20
Boseiju looks like it should anchor this drop, but the best comparison is the neon Secret Lair version from 2022, still all over the place under $20. Bauble just got a full-art version at MagicCon Vegas,, and the rest of these are not popular at all. Neat art, but not really cat-focused and so I feel confident this is a pass.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
Future Sight
76,000
$25
Time Stretch
73,000
$25
Barrowgoyf
12,000
$15
Throes of Chaos
18,000
$3
Mind’s Eye
132,000
$20
Speaking of properties that read as old, Felix got famous in the pre-sound era of films, then big again in 1958-1961, two seasons on CBS in 1995-1997 and was last seen in a pair of direct-to-video (yes, that’s VHS, that’s how old this character is!) releases, one in 1989 and one in 2004. Suffice to say, if I have issues with the choice of Garfield, then I have a lifetime subscription on order when it comes to using this character on Magic cards.
We just got Time Stretch in a Lair not two months ago, and that nonfoil is still on the SL website. The Mind’s Eye is reprinted in the Marvel Commander decks, and so this Lair has the awful combo of forgotten IP and mediocre cards. I will be buying none of this.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
Sovereign Okinec Ahau
29,000
$10
Trailblazer’s Boots
220,000
$8
Long Goodbye
8,500
$3
Farseek
1,010,000
$12
Prismatic Vista
355,000
$65
Vista is the clear winner here, and I think the Sovereign is going to be surprising. The rest of these are filler, but this is a surefire way to get a foil borderless Prismatic Vista for less than it would cost to get a pack foil from MH3. I like the art, it’s nicely whimsical and visually unique enough, but if Vista were swapped with just about any other land I would care a whole lot less. I’ll try to get some of these.
Card
EDHREC Decks
Premium Version Price
Fell the Mighty
56,000
$4
Aggravated Assault
186,000
$35
Chaos Warp
730,000
$20
Utopia Sprawl
214,000
$12
Aura Shards
177,000
$25
This drop is pretty much what I’d have expected when you tell me ‘Secret Lair of Cats.’ Art showing cats doing cat things, chaotic and playful. The Aura Shards where it’s stealing the Sol Ring is top notch. Assault is a solid anchor for the Lair, plus the good Shards, and this Lair should do well. I’ll add a few of these to my cart too.
We’ve been given the bundle prices too. The All-Foil is $20 off the regular prices, the All Non-Foil is $15 off, and a one of everything saves you a total of $40. Your percentage of discounts runs about 6%-8%, depending on the bundle, but given the quality of the drops, I’m very leery of the bundles as specs.
I think this drop could have been more successful if they had skipped the Garfield and Felix IP completely, and run with housecats as a theme. Cats of Chaos shows what the theme is capable of, and the card quality is good there too. It’s so frustrating when a Superdrop shows both what was possible and also screws that up badly.
We’ve got one drop that shows a black cat. Give me an orange cat themed lair. Give me some internet memes. Show cats being afraid of pickles, of tinfoil, or of them chasing a laser pointer. The Internet is 28% funny cat videos, and we get Felix the Cat!
I get that Wizards doesn’t want to over-juice Lairs these days, letting art and FOMO do a lot of the heavy lifting, but they have gone distinctly mid in the card choices here, since only two of the cards in the whole Drop (Prismatic Vista and Aggravated Assault) is $20+ in the base version.
Overall, this is a drop with some stuff worth getting and some worth skipping. I want to get the Toby drop, mainly for the Vistas, and I like the art of Purr Majesty a whole lot, plus the Cats of Chaos is super solid, so those are on my agenda. I’m leaning towards going for the It That Betrays as a single during Dump Week, as I feel confident I’ll be able to get some of those near $40, preferably less. I might look for the new Rin and Seri that week too, but otherwise, I don’t feel like I have to hurry and get this drop. Three I want to buy, one more target for Dump Week sounds good.
There is a counter-case to be made here, sometimes a Lair doesn’t sell well, they yank it off the site, and then the ones that got picked up resell for a surprising amount. There’s been less of that lately, so I’m less and less worried about that happening. Especially for a drop like this, which uses Garfield and Felix the Cat! I got suckered into buying Ghostbusters Lairs on personal nostalgia, but that’s not here and I’m not buying in this time.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
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