Category Archives: Watchtower

The Watchtower 01/25/21 – Closing in on Kaldheim

Kaldheim release is just around the corner, with the Arena release happening this Thursday (28th) and paper release next Friday. As with most Standard set releases, I like to do an article beforehand having a look at which cards I think are worth keeping an eye on, to pick up when they hit their lows. When paper Magic is back in business I might get a chance to talk about some potential preorders, but until then I don’t think that any preorders will really be worth it.

The World Tree

Price I want to buy at: $3
Possible future price: $10

Kicking things off with a fun one, this card should be a shoe-in for pretty much all five colour decks. Aside from the activated ability on it, enabling all your lands to tap for mana of any colour is big game when you’re trying to cast ridiculously costed spells, and being able to fetch Gods up from your deck is just gravy on top (but will be very popular with the casual crowd).

The early EDHREC stats back this up, with it being the most popular card from the set in terms of percentage inclusion, being in 40% of all decks it could fit into that have been registered since the card was added to EDHREC. I don’t think that this is just an EDH card though – I think that this could have some competitive applications as well. Standard, Pioneer and Modern have recently been more and more inclined towards having four or five colour decks at tier one or two, utilising powerful cards like NivMizzet Reborn and Omnath, Locus of Creation – and The World Tree will slot right into those.

There’s also a neat little combo within another card from Kaldheim, Maskwood Nexus, that lets you put all the creatures from your deck into play. I don’t know if that’s going to actually be good anywhere, but I’m sure that people will try and set it up in EDH. Preorders on TCGPlayer are a little silly at $16 right now, but over on MKM you can preorder them for as little as €4. I think this is indicative of lower prices to come, and at peak supply I see these going as low as $3. It’s worth keeping an eye on, and a year or two out I think that this will be a $10+ card.

Realmwalker

Price I want to buy at: $1
Possible future price: $6

Realmwalker is another of the early EDH front-runners from Kaldheim, and I can see why. This card slots right into any tribal deck that can run it, and can serve both as a powerful value engine as well as a potential combo piece. Being able to cast creatures off the top of your library could enable some serious shenanigans, and is an effect that Dragons and Elves decks alike can profit from.

It’s not just EDH that might want this card though; it could be good enough for Elves decks in competitive formats to pick up. I’m certainly not an Elves expert, but Realmwalker does have an Experimental Frenzy feel to it, which has proved its mettle in Standard and Historic, and so I think there could be potential for this to see some constructed play.

It’s worth noting that this is the buy-a-box promo for the set, which does add a fair amount of supply into the market but on a longer timeline I think that this is still a great hit. I expect it to have a similar trajectory to that of something like Ramunap Excavator, with a long steady growth and a nice buylist price down the road, and the potential to spike along the way.

Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider

Price I want to buy at: $10
Possible future price: $30

Vorinclex is the Nyxbloom Ancient of this set*.

*There are a couple of caveats. I don’t think that Vorinclex will be quite as prevalent as Nyxbloom has been, because it does have slightly narrower applications than the mana tripler, but the flipside to that is that I think this card could see competitive play, and so that might make up for the lost EDH decks.

In general, however, almost every set has a mythic or two like this that will get relatively low at peak supply and then just grow and grow as EDH demand outpaces supply. See: Finale of Devastation, The Great Henge, Nyxbloom Ancient, Fiery Emancipation, etc. These are all mono-colour cards with wide applications that can fit into a lot of decks, and you’ll do well to be able to identify them ahead of time for each set so that you can pick them up at their lows.

Regular versions of Vorinclex are going to do great, but there’s also the Showcase and Phyrexian versions to consider here too. Being a Showcase means that it’ll hit lower prices than an Extended Art version might (as they’re only in Collector Boosters), but I honestly don’t know where the Phyrexian versions are going to land. Preorders are going for €36/€120 on MKM for non-foils and foils respectively, so I think that you might be able to get non-foils around $25-30 and foils for uhhhh $?? I’m not sure yet. One to keep an eye on for sure, because I doubt we’ll see it reprinted in Phyrexian for a long time and foils are going to be pretty scarce.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

The Watchtower 01/18/21 – Buying Bricks

I talk a lot about foils in my articles, especially FEA cards and in general, the most premium versions of things. This is because in today’s era of huge print runs, a lot of the time the easiest things to make money on are the cards with the lowest print runs and thus the shallowest supply, which is more often than not the most expensive version of a card.

But, as I alluded to in my article a few weeks ago, there’s money to be made elsewhere as well. When we talk about buying ‘bricks’ of cards in MTG Finance, we’re generally referring to acquiring a large stack of the same card – somewhere in excess of 30-40 copies. The most common plan for these is to sit on them a while and then sell to a buylist, but sometimes you’ll do ok selling singles as well. So what are my latest brick targets?


Valakut Awakening // Valakut Stoneforge

If you’re reading this article then you’re probably plugged into the world of MTG Finance, which means that you’ve probably seen the wild spike that Wheel of Fortune experienced over the weekend. A week ago this was a $300 card, and now even LP copies are selling over $700. We see runs on Reserved List cards happen every now and again, and we’ll probably see a mild retrace on Wheel as people rush to list their copies – I certainly don’t think that this is really a $1-2k card…yet.

But as prices for Reserved List cards like this skyrocket, EDH players are constantly in need of substitutes that they can play instead of splashing out on a real Wheel – and so we come to Valakut Awakening. I’ve already gone on many times about how good these MDFCs are, and this is no exception. I’ve called the FEA copies as a spec before and I’m back to say that I think you could do well to pick up a bunch of the regular non-foils as well.

Valakut Awakening doesn’t put cards in your graveyard like Wheel, if that’s something you need to do, but it is instant speed, gives you card filtering choices and is a land on the other side when you need it. The EDHREC numbers back this up, with it being the third most popular card from the set at over 5000 decks recorded running it. You can pick these up as low as $2 on TCGPlayer, but if you want to grab a ton at once then you’re looking closer to $3-4. CardKingdom are already paying $3 cash on their buylist for these, which shows how popular it is, and I think that given a year or perhaps even less, you should be able to double up or more to a buylist here.

Thieving Skydiver

Price today: $2
Possible price: $5

This is another one that I’ve picked the FEA version as a spec before, but again I think that the regular non-foils are going to perform well too. It’s the second best performing EDH card from Zendikar Rising, and it’s one of those cards that you can easily drop into any and all of your blue decks to great effect. Stealing artifacts is huge in EDH where people are dropping Sol Rings and Mana Crypts all over the place, and you don’t even lose the artifact if your Skydiver dies.

People who own multiple EDH decks that run blue are most likely going to want multiple copies of this card, and once you start to need 3, 4 or more copies of a card for your decks then you’re probably going to want to buy the regular versions over EA or FEA to keep costs down a little. 

Supply on these is definitely deep at the moment, but given enough time it’s not going to stay that way. You can pick up a ton of copies at $2 on TCGPlayer, and CardKingdom is already paying $1.70 credit on them which again shows that they’re needing to pay a premium to keep them in stock. They’re a little cheaper in Europe with stacks available around $1.50, so that’s an even better option if you can get them. I think that we could see a $4-5 buylist by the end of this year, and for such a new card I don’t expect a reprint for a little while yet.

Akroma’s Will

Price today: $4
Possible price: $10

Hopping over to Commander Legends now, which is still just about in the brickable category, although supply is draining fast on the more popular cards. Akroma’s Will is one of the most popular white cards from the set and for good reason – it’s effectively a Heroic Intervention and Flying Crane Technique rolled into one, but for only four mana. It’s flexible and powerful, and a tool which the majority of white decks would do well to be playing.

I’m honestly surprised that these are only $4 at the moment – but as I said, supply won’t be around long and that price is going to push up. You can still get a decent chunk in one go from a couple of vendors on TCGPlayer, which I think should pay dividends in 6-12 months. Given that these are going to be pushing $10+, you may end up having a better time selling these as singles rather than to a buylist, but either option should turn out just fine.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

The Watchtower 01/11/21 – Throwback to Throne

Throne of Eldraine has been one of the most powerful Standard sets to grace us in recent memory, giving us cards like Oko, Thief of Crowns and Once Upon a Time that ultimately got banned from Standard, Pioneer and Modern. The rest of the set wasn’t exactly feeble either though, with Embercleave and Brazen Borrower amongst others proving their worth in multiple formats.

We’ve already seen The Great Henge regular and EA versions reach dizzying heights, and Borderless foil Okos are up there too even though it’s banned in most places, but there are still some undervalued cards that are close to drying up and just waiting to pop – so let’s take a look at some of them.

Return of the Wildspeaker (FEA)

Price today: $14
Possible price: $30

Throne of Eldraine brought with it the first Collector Boosters, and with them the first Extended Art cards that we’ve come to know and love. They’re the fanciest and most expensive versions of cards that we get printed into Standard sets now, and consequently we’ve seen the more popular ones drain out and prices go bananas. Just from ELD, The Great Henge FEA is over $150, Embercleave almost $80, Faeburrow Elder around $40, and so on.

So, onto Return of the Wildspeaker – this is the third most popular EDH card from the set, clocking in at almost 20k decks on EDHREC and only losing out to Fabled Passage and Mystic Sanctuary. But it’s only $14? Well, not for long by the looks of things. It’s down to 25 listings on TCGPlayer with a nice ramp forming up towards $40, and it’ll only take a handful of EDH players upgrading their copies to move the price upwards significantly. I think that calling this from $14 to $30 is honestly a little conservative, and this could hit $40+ before too long.

Castle Garenbrig (FEA)

Price on MKM: €20 ($24)
Price on TCGPlayer: $34 (but really $40+)
Possible price: $60

Castle Garenbrig has been one of those cards that hasn’t necessarily been broken anywhere, or a super-staple for EDH, but just an all-around consistent performer. We’ve seen it picked up by various Amulet Titan and Eladamri’s Toolbox decks in Modern, as well as being a Standard staple for all the green decks. On top of that, it’s been recorded in almost 12k EDH decks on EDHREC, a very respectable number and a good asset to big creature decks.

Supply in North America is already pretty drained on these, with only 12 listings for a total of 15 NM foil copies left on TCGPlayer; a couple of copies at $34 and then rest $40+. Most main vendors are out of stock or close to it, but if you can find any around or below $30 then you’re doing great (if you’re quick then check out CardKingdom and Miniature Market for a couple of cheaper copies).

Over in Europe, however, you can still pick these up for €20 – but it’s not as if there’s a glut of supply there either, with around 30 copies left. Prices are overall much lower though, which makes for some great arbitrage – there’s instant profit available if you ship these over to the US, or greater returns available if you wait another couple of months. 

Mirrormade (FEA)

Price today: $18
Possible price: $40

Yes, we’re all aboard the FEA train today, because it’s going to be leaving the station in a hurry! Mirrormade is another one that’s getting very low on the supply side, down to 20 listings (23 copies) on TCGPlayer, and a very popular EDH card. Despite lacking any competitive chops, this is still a very good card for EDH and has the open-ended synergy that we love to see in specs.

There are lots of different clone effects for copying artifacts, but not many that copy enchantments and very few that do both. The closest you can really get is Mirage Mirror, which is a powerful and flexible option but not permanent – and if you’re playing one of those effects then you’re probably going to want another one if you can get your hands on it.

These look like they’ll be $30 before long at all, and will head up towards $40+ given another 6-12 months, so if you want any personal or spec copies then now is the time. You can grab some a little cheaper around $15 in Europe if you have access, but I think that most copies under $20 are a good buy right now.


As for the future of FEA cards, the only one we’ve seen reprinted thus far (as an FEA) is Fabled Passage, and that one did understandably catch quite a lot of people off-guard. It may be that it’s just a card that Wizards want to give people a little more access to, because we haven’t seen any other FEA reprints other than that, so I think that the future for these cards is probably quite safe for the time being at least. Reprints are something worth keeping in mind, but going on what we’ve seen so far, I think that almost all FEA specs are safe from reprints in the near future.


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.

The Watchtower 01/04/21 – New Year, New Specs, Same me

This week marks a whole year of me writing for MTGPrice, and it’s been a great journey so far. Although 2020 seemed to last indefinitely, with a period of time that I even switched to writing solely about MTGO picks because of the uncertainty about the future of paper Magic, it still seems odd to think that I’ve written 52 articles since it began, with a lot of good calls, a few medium ones and a sprinkling of misfires along the way.

Despite the pandemic this has still been a good year for MTG Finance, and it’s clear that paper Magic is going to pick back up once the world opens back up again, and so I’ve no doubt that 2021 will be more of the same great content from me, and I hope that you’ll all stay along for the ride.

Deflecting Swat

Price in Europe: €15 ($18)
Price in US: $32
Possible price: $40

For my first trick pick I’m going somewhat back to my roots with a solid arbitrage pick. The Commander 2020 set brought us a suite of free spells that you can cast for no cost if you control your commander, and Fierce Guardianship was expensive pretty much right out of the gate. The others were less popular to start with, but have been gaining ground more recently, particularly Deflecting Swat.

Being able to change the target of a spell is a great ability for red to have when it doesn’t have access to counterspells and the like, especially when you can cast it for free, and the numbers are backing it up – Fierce Guardianship is around 20k EDH decks on EDHREC with Deflecting Swat catching up fast at a little over 13k.

Prices in the US are already over $32, but in Europe where (if you read my articles) you’ll know that EDH is far less popular, the card is only around $18. That’s some solid arbitrage as it stands, but without a reprint probable on the near horizon it looks like this could keep heading up towards $40. Only 17 listings on TCGPlayer a steep ramp has already formed, so I think that this is a great short-term opportunity to bring some over from Europe.

Zagoth Triome (Showcase Foil)

Price today: $28
Possible price: $50

The five Triomes are by far and away the most popular EDH cards from Ikoria, and rightly so. Three colour lands that cycle and have basic lands types (which means they’re fetchable) are a slam dunk auto-include in any 3+ colour EDH decks that’s not just running all original duals with shocks and fetches to boot (which isn’t many decks, really). I’ve talked about the Triomes before along with some other staff members here, but today I wanted to highlight one that I think is still undervalued.

Zagoth Triome ranks the highest out of the five on EDHREC by around 400 decks over Ketria Triome, and in terms of competitive play Ketria sees a little more play than Zagoth in Pioneer and Modern, but not by a lot. In terms of price, Ketria currently starts at $33 on TCGPlayer and Zagoth at $28, but what’s interesting is that Zagoth actually forms a steeper ramp with fewer listings, leading me to think that the cheaper copies are undervalued.

I do think that all of the showcase foil Triomes are still good pickups at the moment – they were better a few months ago but even now you can pick the cheaper ones around $20, which I think should have a good run up to $40 in the next 6-12 months. Supply is draining on all five Triomes and I don’t think we’ll see them printed like this again for a long time, so personal copies and specs are a must-buy soon if you want them at current prices.

Bane of Progress (CC1 Foil)

Price today: $14
Possible price: $30

Commander Collection Green was a bit of an odd product in that the premium versions were only available to WPN Premium stores, meaning that supply of them has been severely throttled compared to the regular versions. Preorders got crazy high, and once the foils got dumped onto the market prices did come down a reasonable amount but the low supply has meant that a lot of the cards have been snapped up pretty quickly.

Cards like Worldly Tutor and Bane of Progress have had first-time foil printings, and so EDH players that have been playing these cards for a long time and waiting for foils of them have jumped at the chance to get hold of them. Bane of Progress foils in particular got down below $10 and I called them out in the ProTrader Discord as a good buy, and they’re already back up to $14.

This is a card registered in 12k EDH decks on EDHREC and there are only 15 foil listings on TCGPlayer – this won’t be a $14 card for much longer. Over in Europe you can still get some copies around €7 which is honestly a steal, and I think that this will be $30 sooner rather than later. It doesn’t seem like there’s a restock of Commander Collection Green coming any time soon, so take a look at some of the other foil singles as well and see what you think!


David Sharman (@accidentprune on Twitter) has been playing Magic since 2013, dabbling in almost all formats but with a main focus on Modern, EDH and Pioneer. Based in the UK, he’s an active MTG finance speculator specialising in cross-border arbitrage.