The previews for Outlaws of Thunder Junction are coming fast and furious this week, and several of the new commanders are setting up to be world-shakers. Today I want to focus on someone who doesn’t do a new thing, but does it better than anyone else who’s come before:

Ghired has had a card before, about six years ago when Commander 2019 came out. That version had a 4/4 trample creature token built in, but you needed to attack to get the populate trigger.

Make no mistake, this tap ability is “tap:populate” but there is potential for even more. So today I want to come up with a list of the cards that I think Ghired’s Commander deck will want. I’m fully aware that there’s a Naya-colored Commander deck coming, but the theme there is lands moving in and out of the graveyard, so the reprint risk is lower.

So let’s get to the cards that enable this effect, and which versions we should have ready to go.

It’s important to note that you have to be ready to go with untapped nontoken creatures. It’s also important that you have haste for everything, both for the ability from Ghired and having the new tokens attack immediately. Haste enablers will be a big part of these decks, and here’s some favorites:

Thousand-Year Elixir: nonfoils are available in the $11 range for List, Commander, and original Lorwyn copies. The only foils available are from original Lorwyn, and already quite pricey. The Elixir is exactly what the deck wants, giving your abilities haste and adding an additional untap to do the thing. Similarly, Magewright Stone in RVR’s retro foil frame has a similar effect and that’s $3, ready to rise.

Fervor: Classic, simple, straightforward and will see a minor bump. No special foils to chase yet, but there’s only 7th foil (crazy expensive) and Magic Origins foil (super reasonable $7)

Fires of Yavimaya: Worth playing, but it’s either 20 versions in bulk nonfoil or the original foil for $30.

Rhythm of the Wild – Retro Foils are four bucks from Ravnica Remastered. Definitely worth having some of those around.

Hammer of Purphoros – Foils are available for three bucks, plus you can turn lands into tokens and start the chain going.

Nahiri’s Resolve – Surge Foils from Aftermath can be had for three dollars, and there’s some great effects you might want to flicker.

Ghired lets us copy any token, and while creature tokens are the most common, there’s other ways to play that game. We want copies of sweet cards, not just creatures! We also want ways to copy our sweet creatures, instead of just making big tokens.

Lithoform Engine – Sure it costs a lot of mana, but the FEA at $10 is likely a winner here. Make the spell, get a copy, copy the copy!

Mirrorpool – Copying a creature you control in these colors isn’t easy, but foils are $8 already! Three nonfoil printings to choose from, so definitely look at foils here.

Bramble Sovereign – I own two dozen Borderless foils that I bought for much higher prices way back when. Now you can get in at $4 and go to town.

Flameshadow Conjuring – It makes a copy, which has haste. The copy Ghired makes doesn’t have haste but also won’t need to be sacrificed. Very few NM foils near $7, which might spike hard.

Hofri Ghostforge – Gets recursive value, and you can get FEA versions for $4.

Mimic Vat – A pet card of mine, always giving value as an exile for the other players, now you get a token too! Please remember the special LCC version for $4.

Orthion, Hero of Lavabrink – I didn’t know about this card but foils at $5 are just what the deck wants.

Rhys the Redeemed – Commander players love the best-case scenario for things, and Rhys is that. I like the DXM foils at $14.

Soul Foundry – Yes, you exile your own thing, but tokens! MIR foils at $7 are the play here.

Helm of the Host – There are three foils around $17, and all should see a modest rise. Can you imagine the shenanigans here?

The deck will also need some giant tokens to copy. These are just a few options:

Urabrask’s Forge – Tokens are trample, haste, and gloriously growing. FEA copies at $5 are my call.

Rite of the Raging Storm – There’s no foils, just several nonfoils, but the card is glorious in a Ghired deck and all versions should bump up some.

Budoka Gardener – Foils are $20, nonfoils under a buck. Take your pick.

Ghalta and Mavren – Showcase foil is underpriced at $2, and don’t forget the bundle foil exists.

Mask of the Jadecrafter – Easy way to make big tokens twice. Foils as a brick play might work out nicely.

Oviya Pashiri, Sage Lifecrafter – Foils are near bulk but it’s the perfect card.

Nissa, Ascended Animist – Oil Slick foils are just $10!

Idol of Oblivion – Etched foils are already $12 but could hit $20. Only other foil is $3 and could go higher, good early and late!

Godsire – With Ghired out, you get it twice!  I would go for the $20 pack foils but there’s so few, the originals and the List copies should see their own bumps.

Roar of the Wurm – $6 for original foils, but $3 FNM foils are a good secondary choice.

Advent of the Wurm – Bulk pricing for the foils may not last long!

Armada Wurm – $2 foils are ripe for the picking as a mythic from 12 years ago.

Dragonmaster Outcast – BFZ foils at $4-$5 are where I’d want to be, but the Worldwake foils are near double that price and super mega rare. Remember, it was a small set from 15 years ago, and was only opened for a couple months before Rise of the Eldrazi came out.

Old One Eye – Surge foils at $4 are definitely the play

Omnath, Locus of Rage – I would go for Secret Lair foils at $14, given the tiny supply, but the regular frame foils at $12ish are also tempting.

Finally, Commander players are big on spells and effects that mimic the Commander’s theme. In this case, that means anything with ‘populate’ on it will see some action. Prepare accordingly.

Esika’s Chariot – The showcase foils are just $4, compared to where they were during their time in Standard.

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker – Lots to choose from, and I’m not certain which version will take off.

Parallel Evolution – A classic enabler of token strategies, I’m paying attention to the original foils: 4 copies under $20, then they jump to $30.

Determined Iteration – Promo pack foils for $10 are my target here, since those are in lower supply.

Nesting Dovehawk – $8 for these two effects on one card is perfect.

Arboreal Alliance – To maximize its effect, the deck needs elves, but under $1 for big token and populating goodness is hard to argue with.

Life Finds a Way – $6 foil for a Jurassic Park card that does exactly what the deck wants. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

We’ve had a lot of Universes Beyond products in the last year or so, and two of them have been spectacular and one has been middling. Fallout is immediately on a rocketship, with Mr. House causing all sorts of ancillary spikes. (Which I predicted in October.) Lord of the Rings, with summer and holiday editions, was the best-selling set in Magic’s history. Then there was the Dr. Who expansion, exquisitely timed to match a weird time-split-regeneration thing happening on the show, and that kind of landed with a thud and a fizzle.

In July, we’re going to get Assassin’s Creed products, with a set code of ACR, and this will be an interesting take. The previous three UB sets had a wide variety of offerings and products, so let’s look at what Wizards has done before, and what they are going to do this time. That might give us a little glimpse into what we can expect from the prices to come.

Let’s take a beat for some comparisons, and discuss how the four sets (LOTR, WHO, PIP, ACR) are packaged.

Lord of the Rings’s original release was Draft Boosters, Collector Boosters, plus some bundles of those boosters. In the Holiday edition, we not only got a new set of Showcase frames, we were given Collector Boosters plus Scene Boxes. We know the print run for the original Collector Boosters was no less than 3.3 million packs, thanks to the odds of getting the 1/1 The One Ring. That’s roughly 275,000 boxes, and with the approximately 125k from the Holiday release (again, thanks to estimates based off of serialized calculations) that’s a total of roughly 400,000 Collector Booster boxes. One thing this set did not have was a set of Commander decks, but it had enough cards to be a standalone expansion. We’re also told that this set will be reprinted for at least a year, in the basic version at least. 

For the Dr. Who set, we had a set of Commander decks and then Collector Boosters, but the total number of CB packs was much lower, between 50 to 100k total boxes available. Those CBs were the only way to get anything premium, as there was no foils for the Commander decks past the ‘face’ Commanders and the 2-card sample pack in the package.

The same structure is in place for Fallout, with Commander decks plus Collector Boosters, but the numbers are even lower here. Estimates for the number of Collector Booster boxes between 30,000 and 60,000, which is clearly too low a print run, as these boxes have all jumped to $400+ online. 

Assassin’s Creed is a July 5 arrival, and we don’t yet have estimates for the print run. Hopefully they figured out that the shorter run of PIP was an overcorrection after Dr. Who. We do know that there will be 100 cards in the set, and to go with Collector Boosters, we’re getting Beyond Boosters. This appears to be a ‘better’ approach than Aftermath was, but we’ll see how it actually goes. 

In terms of raw logistics, I think they would have figured out that Dr. Who was overprinted compared to its demand, and perhaps throttled back a bit too far for Fallout. I am doubtful that they can change the ACR print run based on the success of Fallout’s premium versions, since making more CB boxes means they need to alter promotional materials that show anything about serialized versions. 

Once we’ve got the number of serialized cards, and the drop rate for those cards, I’ll be able to calculate the likely range of Collector Booster boxes that were printed. Remember that this number isn’t locked in, there’s plenty of reasons for boxes to not make it to the distributor or other errors to happen. 

The Beyond Boosters is an interesting change on Aftermath, but the key will not be the size of the packs, but the power level of the cards in those packs. Aftermath is incredibly underpowered and casual-focused for a set built so small. They aren’t bad cards, but they are clearly more targeted at Commander than Constructed formats.

I think ACR will have less of this problem. Freerunning, a mechanic that encourages you to get aggro with your cards much the way Prowl did, is going to assemble a group of cards that play well together. Aftermath was a whole bunch of separate parts to add to other machines; the Assassin deck is its own sports car, from the look of things. Aftermath also had a problem where we are sort of expecting serialized cards now, and even mediocre serialized cards can help sell a set, or keep the EV from falling too far.We know we’re getting at least Leonardo Da Vinci and Cleopatra serialized, so those should keep the overall price from falling too far.

My expectation is that Wizards would rather err on the side of underprinting cards in special sets like this, or at least not go wild on the Collector Boosters. They told us that Lord of the Rings’ regular packs would be printed for a year, and I expect similar factors at play for the Beyond Boosters. As far as we know, Wizards has never done a second print run of Collector Boosters, with the exception of LOTR’s Holiday edition, which had different showcase frames and different serialized cards to chase.

If you keep an eye on the ProTrader Discord, not only will you have access to group buys at lower costs, you’ll also get excellent and quick information about print runs and availability, so if we get another situation where Collector Boosters are in short supply, you’ll know faster.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Every set, we’re given a breakdown of how likely you are to open the cards you want. Sometimes we get detailed percentages, sometimes we get generalized information. Either way, I’m happy to break down the numbers and tell you how likely you are to get the card you want. 

Fallout occupies an interesting space, in that there’s four Commander decks filled with sweet cards and interactions, and then Collector Boosters default to having lots of shiny, premium cards. There’s nothing in between, and as such, each slot in the Collector Booster has its own appeal.

First off, here’s the list for reprints in the regular frame in this set. When some slots talk about ‘new to Magic’ they don’t mean these cards. 

Uncommon reprints (57)	Rare Reprints (82)	Mythic Reprints (1)
Arcane Signet Bastion of Remembrance Behemoth Sledge Brass Knuckles Buried Ruin Contagion Clasp Corpsejack Menace Crush Contraband Cultivate Dispatch Everflowing Chalice Fireshrieker General’s Enforcer Glimmer of Genius Harmonize Heroic Reinforcements Inspiring Call Intangible Virtue Jungle Shrine Lightning Greaves Loyal Apprentice Memorial to Glory Mind Stone Morbid Opportunist Myriad Landscape Mystic Monastery Nomad Outpost Opulent Palace Path to Exile Pitiless Plunderer Putrefy Rancor Roadside Reliquary Rogue’s Passage Skullclamp Sol Ring Squirrel Nest Swiftfoot Boots Swords to Plowshares Tainted Field Tainted Isle Tainted Peak Tainted Wood Talisman of Conviction Talisman of Creativity Talisman of Curiosity Talisman of Dominance Talisman of Hierarchy Talisman of Indulgence Talisman of Progress Talisman of Resilience Temple of the False God Thirst for Knowledge Valorous Stance Wear // Tear Whirler Rogue Winding Constrictor	Anguished Unmaking Assemble the Legion Austere Command Basilisk Collar Biomass Mutation Black Market Blasphemous Act Bloodforged Battle-Axe Branching Evolution Canopy Vista Canyon Slough Captain of the Watch Casualties of War Champion’s Helm Chaos Warp Cinder Glade Clifftop Retreat Darkwater Catacombs Dragonskull Summit Drowned Catacomb Entrapment Maneuver Exotic Orchard Fervent Charge Fetid Pools Find // Finality Fraying Sanity Glacial Fortress Guardian Project Hardened Scales Heroic Intervention Hinterland Harbor Hour of Reckoning Inexorable Tide Irrigated Farmland Isolated Chapel Keeper of the Accord Lethal Scheme Mantle of the Ancients Marshal’s Anthem Martial Coup Masterwork of Ingenuity Mossfire Valley Mystic Forge Nesting Grounds One with the Machine Open the Vaults Panharmonicon Prairie Stream Puresteel Paladin Rootbound Crag Ruinous Ultimatum Scattered Groves Scavenger Grounds Secure the Wastes Shadowblood Ridge Sheltered Thicket Single Combat Skycloud Expanse Smoldering Marsh Solemn Simulacrum Spire of Industry Steel Overseer Stolen Strategy Sulfur Falls Sungrass Prairie Sunken Hollow Sunpetal Grove Temple of Abandon Temple of Deceit Temple of Enlightenment Temple of Epiphany Temple of Malady Temple of Malice Temple of Mystery Temple of Plenty Temple of Silence Temple of Triumph Tireless Tracker Treasure Vault Wake the Past Windbrisk Heights Woodland Cemetery	Mechanized Production

In the Collector Booster, the first slot is basic lands, with a 33% chance of that land being Surge Foil. After that, we start getting interesting. It’ll be any nonland from the deck, and each deck has a slightly different number of non-basic-lands to choose from. 

Each deck has the following number of cards that aren’t basic lands: 

Scrappy Survivors – 88 cards

Hail, Caesar! – 86 cards

Mutant Menace – 85 cards

Science! – 87 cards

This arrangement of slots calls for its own table:

	# of CBs needed for a specific card in Traditional Foil	# of CBs needed for a specific card in Surge Foil
Any card	346	3460
Hail, Caesar	86	860
Scrappy Survivors	88	880
Science!	87	870
Mutant Menace	85	850

On average, you’ve got about a one in 86.5 chance for a Traditional Foil, and 865 for a Surge Foil regular frame from the four slots. The slot before that could be from any deck, which boosts your overall odds per pack. One more slot is going to increase our Surge Foil Regular Frame options overall, and I’ll get to that in a moment.

After the Surge Foils, we’ve got some Extended Art options:

Options in the slot	# of cards (and therefore how many packs to get a specific card)
1 Non-foil extended-art new-to-Magic card	85
1 Non-foil extended-art reprint Magic card	82
1 Traditional foil extended-art new-to-Magic card	85
1 Traditional foil extended-art reprint Magic card	82
1 Surge foil extended-art new-to-Magic card	85
1 Surge foil extended-art reprint Magic card	82

The Extended Art cards are not going to be super-difficult pulls, needing about seven boxes to get one specific card in the treatment you want. Dividing it up this way helps.

After that, we get a Surge Foil wildcard spot, which is regular frame or Extended Art. From the earlier slots, we know that there’s 346 regular frame cards plus 167 EA options. Adding it all up, we get the following numbers:

Regular Frame Surge Foils: 1/3460 plus 1/865 plus 1/513 gives us a roughly 1 in 294.6 chance of getting a certain card in Regular Frame Surge Foil per pack.

Extended Art Surge Foils: 1/167 plus 1/513 gives us roughly 126 packs to get the specific Extended Art Surge Foil we want.

The next-to-last card in the slot is for nonfoil special frames, and there’s 35 potential drops, all appearing equally even if they are labeled as uncommons, rares, and mythics.

Finally, the last slot. Foil Showcase, Pip-Boy, and serialized all mixed together. Traditional foil is 90% of the pulls here, and a 10% chance of the card being Surge Foil. Any regular foil is about 1/39, and that makes the Surge Foils about 1/390.

The Amazon product page tells us that serialized is less than 1% of boosters, and that’s a percentage we can break down. 

Our estimate is that there’s about a 0.8% chance per booster, but it could flex either way. It’s unlikely to be as rare as 0.5%, but even if that’s the max, we know that there’s less Fallout out there than the last two Universes Beyond sets that had Collector Boosters. Between the two LOTR editions, there was about 400,000 CB boxes, there was at max 100,000 of those for Dr. Who, and now we’re at maybe 60,000. This stuff is going to be hard to find!

Early indicators back this up, too, with CB boxes preselling on TCGplayer and other sites above $400. Interestingly, the serialized cards are about two to four times rarer than Surge Foil Showcase/Vault-Boy cards, depending on which estimate you use. Imagine if the Surge Foils came with a xxxx/1500 on them, and you get an idea of the rarity involved.

Let’s make a table to summarize example rarities.

Type of Frame and Foil (all rarities)	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of CBs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Regular Frame	guaranteed	1.4%	69.2
Surge Foil Regular Frame	guaranteed	0.34%	294.6
Extended-Art nonfoil	guaranteed	0.6%	167
Extended-Art Regular Foil	guaranteed	0.6%	167
Extended-Art Surge Foil	guaranteed	0.8%	126
Nonfoil Showcase or Vault Boy	guaranteed	2.85%	35
Traditional Foil Showcase or Vault Boy	90%	2.57%	39
Surge Foil Showcase or Vault Boy	10%	0.257%	390

Looking at this table, it’s pretty impressive how they manipulate the slots and additional chances at the same card to move your overall chances, and the total amount of premium cards printed. Extended-Art Surge Foils will be the most common premium drop, and ought to carry a lower price than the surprisingly difficult pull for the Regular Frame Surge Foils.

The other number that jumps out at me is the non-Surge numbers for the Showcase and Vault Boy options, both the nonfoils and the Traditional Foils. Right now, those cards appear to be super overpriced, and hopefully those prices drop once release weekend hits. 

There’s some psychology at play here. Will the market really let the Regular Frame Surge Foil version of Nuka-Cola Vending Machine be more than twice the price of the EA version, as these drop rates suggest? We will have to see. 

I hope these numbers help inform your buying decisions, both for the overall rarity of Fallout CBs and for individual cards. As always, if you have questions about the methods or results, please feel free to reach out in the ProTrader Discord, in the comments, or on Twitter. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.