Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Could This Spike BE Any Better?

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As many of you know, I’m the content manager at EDHREC.com. I am in charge of hiring writers, making sure they meet their deadlines, assigning articles topics, managing social media, etc. It’s a good thing, too because if I hadn’t been reviewing article drafts there this week, I might have missed the latest trend.

If you’ve never used EDHREC, I rec it to everyone as a resource not only for EDH deck building but also for mtg finance. It is a huge database full of decks submitted to sites like Tapped Out that keeps track of cards being played in any given deck and reports how those decks are composed. The most popular decks are tracked and categorized by popularity and that’s important because the most popular decks tend to have profound effects on prices. Atraxa was instrumental in moving the price of Doubling Season, a card that was already pretty expensive. Breya has moved the price on cards ranging from Nim Deathmantle to Krak Clan Ironworks to every card with “Darksteel” in its name. Normally we try to talk about cards that are affected by new printings or price spikes because I don’t like buying cards after they go up. With that in mind, I want to discuss a trend I noticed this week.

EDHREC tracks commanders by popularity and graphs them based on how many times people looked them up. For commanders that have been popular forever, the graph is always very high. Here’s the graph for Atraxa.

As you can see, Atraxa is #1 or close to it almost every day since it was printed. Less popular commanders don’t have as good a day as Atraxa does every day. Here’s a mid-tier commander like Jolrael.

As you can see, how much Jolrael is looked up varies widely by day and it could be a dozens of views that make up the dramatic swings between being ranked in the 600s and 400s. There are a lot of eyeballs on a lot of decks. So what do we do when we notice a card getting popular very quickly? I noticed a card trend very sharply upward this week.

This is the graph of a card that has rocketed in popularity over the last few weeks. It’s so popular, in fact that it knocked Atraxa out of the #1 spot, which was no easy feat. The card, of course (You saw the picture I used for the article after all, there’s no point in pretending we don’t both know the card this is) is Chandler. Some of you might have to look it up, so I’ll save you the trouble.

I had heard some rumblings about this card in EDH forums online but didn’t expect this kind of a spike in popularity. A friend brought a copy of his Chandler deck to the shop for EDH night and I got to see the deck work first-hand and I finally get the hype. Built in response to decks like Breya and Arcum Daggson, Chandler decks control the board with cards like Liquimetal Coating to keep their regular creatures in line and Umbral Mantle to get multiple Chandler activations in a turn cycle. The deck was too slow and inconsistent, though, until very recently. The printing of one card we’re all very familiar with was the last piece the deck needed. You know the card I’m talking about.

Paradox Engine turned a relatively inconsistent deck into a murder machine, untapping Chandler for multiple activations a turn and keeping the board clear of troublesome artifact creatures. Over the course of a few hours, my friend’s Chandler deck demolished Arcum, Daretti, Zedruu and even my Maelstrom Wanderer deck as well as a turned Karador deck. Eventually we asked him to play a different deck so someone else had a chance of winning.

As with all cards we write about in this series, I don’t see much of a point in trying to buy copies of Chandler. While we were drafting Modern Masters and Aether Revolt and talking about the best time to buy Scalding Tarn, Chandler has quietly disappeared from the internet.

Paying $20 to get a copy of this from TCG Player seems ridiculous at this point. You missed the boat and that’s OK. However, there are a few key cards in the deck that  I have to imagine are going to go up based on people wanting to brew Chandler.

Joven

Doesn’t this guy just look like he smells like he owns a lot of ferrets? Despite dressing like he’s at a leather party after an Alice Cooper concert, Joven is a key component in the Chandler deck, keeping them off of non-creature artifacts as well. There are plenty of targets for Joven and he benefits from the same Paradox Engine and Umbral Mantle er… engine. The deck is built to take advantage of a very similar card in Chandler and Joven does serious work in the deck. The price hasn’t really budged on Joven, yet so there’s real buying opportunity here. With people buying Homelands boxes trying to avoid having to shell out $20 for Chandler, the supply of loose copies of Joven is drying up. This is also very unlikely to get reprinted because even if they do a judge foil for Chandler to bring the price down, it’s unlikely they’d do the same for Joven. The sky is basically the limit on this.

Speaking of Homelands boxes, I think we missed the boat on those, too.

The recent price spike of Merchant Scroll combined with relative scarcity of old, sealed product and the recent increase in interest in Chandler has basically dried up a lot of the affordable Homelands boxes. If your LGS has a few loose packs, go ahead and try your luck, but stay away from boxes. It’s too late to get these affordably.

Braid of Fire

This is the mana engine that really powers the deck. Giving you a ton of red mana to power the activations as well as use Umbral Mantle and Staff of Domination getting counters on Braid of Fire is your #1 goal. Use Gamble and other tutors to dig for this as quickly as possible because the sooner it’s online, the sooner you can start going off.

Rustmouth Ogre

This is already spiking a bit but I think there’s a lot more money to be made on this. Despite being uncommon, I think this has a pretty high ceiling given the price we’ve seen on other highly-played uncommons from Mirrodin. Think Isochron Scepter, for example. Unlike Scepter, I think this is not very likely to get reprinted, making it a safer place to park some money. Use Whispersilk Cloak and Rogue’s Passage to make sure you connect with Ogre. I run Fireshrieker and Grappling Hook so I get multiple triggers per hit. There’s no wrong way to hit them with Rustmouth Ogre, just do it early and often.

Toymaker

Everyone knows to use Liquimetal Coating to turn your non-artifact creatures into artifact creatures so that Chandler can obliterate them, but not many people knew about this hidden gem. Toymaker turns their non-creature artifacts into real boys, Pinnochio-style. I guess Gepetto-style, really. Unless Pinnochio was making dolls come to life, too, in some sort of marionette-based Skynet self-awareness scenario. There has to be a way to make a Portmanteau of “Skynet” and “Marionette” that’s funny but I can’t figure it out. What I can figure out is that Toymaker is not likely to be reprinted soon, foils are a very healthy 3x multiplier (which could grow) and this is a key component of the most popular deck on EDHREC. You do the math.

Ashnod’s Transmogrifant

I think this may be a bad spec since it’s been printed three times (Antiquities, Chronicles, 5th) but if this does start to take off, Antiquities is where you want your money parked. You can use it in a pinch to make your own creatures bigger to screw with their combat math or just make theirs eligible for being murdered by Chandler. Could this card BE any more flexible?

I think there are quite a few possible targets that I didn’t get to in this piece. Feel free to peruse the Chandler commander page for more ideas.

That does it for me this week. If there’s any possible spec target you think I missed, leave it for me in the comments section and we’ll discuss it there. Until next week!

 

 

Casual Fridays, ProTrader

Invocation Predictions (Part 1)

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The Masterpieces are here! In Amonkhet, they are known as Invocations this time around. I have some beef with some specific choices for this special set, but I see what their goal was. Wizards wanted to give us a 3-D effect and something that was visually very different, and they got that. I don’t like the unreadable card name, and I think there’s a lot of spell bubbles, but I’m not an art critic. I’m a casual player and someone addicted to foils, but this design doesn’t have to be for me.

Even if you don’t like the look of these cards, these are valuable. Even the least of these will be worth about the same as the most expensive mythic, barring the very unforeseen.

This week, I want to look at these current prices and see where they will probably end up, price-wise. The preorder price is an amalgamation, between some sites, and eBay sales aren’t up yet.

 

Aggravated Assault – Original: $12, Set foil: $28, Preorder: $30 – If you like this you’re going to pay a little bit more, and that makes sense. I don’t think the demand is very high for this card, though. It’s rare that you activate this more than once, even if you’re a Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder player. This card doubled when his deck was released and hasn’t been printed since Onslaught.

Prediction: I think $30 is a perfect price here. It’s on par with the set foil, which lots of people find appealing.

Attrition – $9, $40, Preorder $35 – I want to like this. I really do. Attrition works so well with a number of casual strategies (Meren, tokens, Karador) and this has potential. It’s popular enough that I think the price is going to creep upward but not a lot.

Prediction: At the end, it’ll be about $45.

 

Austere Command – $12, $35, Preorder $50 – Lorwyn and original Commander are the only printings, and I think this price reflects the appropriate demand and the semi-small supply. It’s not played outside Commander and Cube, but it’s nicely flexible and worth playing in most casual decks.

Prediction: This is going to fall to about the same price as the set foil. It’s not pretty enough to be worth upgrading to if you already have a foil.

 

Aven Mindcensor – $8, $53, Preorder $45 – We’ve had it spoiled that this is going to be a rare in Amonkhet, so that $8 isn’t going to last. It’s not widely played in Modern or Legacy, though it does pop up in sideboards. It needs to be said that the frame is going to play a big part, as those who like the Future Sight frame REALLY LOVE that frame and I don’t see the pack foil budging in price.

Prediction: The Invocation version will fall by a few bucks, but not terribly far.

 

Chain Lightning – $11, $3/$6 Eternal Masters, $6 for PDS foil, Preorder: $40 – This seems super duper and incredibly way off. This is played in one deck, Legacy Burn, and while it’s a four-of it’s not usually the market for these promo versions.

Prediction: This falls like a rock. It should drop down to the $20 range, which would be 3x the price of foils available. Ouch.

 

Consecrated Sphinx – $20, $60, Preorder: $50 – The card is bonkers insane in any format where it survives being cast and not being killed before the next draw step. There’s precious few cards that will get you attacked to death faster, and the single printing is why the price is so high.

Prediction: Against all my instincts, I think this is going to go up. It’s the only Sphinx so far in the Invocation set, and I think there will be enough casual players who want this to let it creep up by $10-$15 or so.

 

Containment Priest – $15, Preorder: $75 – This sees a small amount of play in Legacy and Vintage, and with no other choices for making unique versions of the card, I’m expecting big things out of this foil. That said, this is a 5x multiplier, and I think that’s just too high.

Prediction: This ends up at $50-$60, there’s just not enough demand, even though its only printing was a Commander precon three years ago.

 

Counterbalance – $20, $115, Preorder: $65 – This is in demand because of the power it offers in formats where Sensei’s Divining Top is legal. I rarely see this in Commander, and its power in Cube is debatable. A foil multiplier of 6 is fascinating, though, and speaks to the income and the four-of nature of this card.

Prediction: I think this has room to fall. The pack foil is far superior in appearance, but those who want this will be few and far between. I expect this to land at $40-$50.

 

Counterspell – $1-$175 for nonfoils, $6-$32 for foils, Preorder: $60 – The Invocation version is the 25th entry we will have for this card, including the foil versions. You have a wide variety of art to choose from, and can go all the way back to being an Alpha rare. You can choose an FNM promo, or a Judge Foil, or a selection of special printings.

Prediction: I think this falls to $40 or under. Yes, Commanders and Cubes play this, but there’s rarer and older versions to chase.

 

Cryptic Command – $26-$30, $35-$110 foil, Preorder: $90 – The Lorwyn foil is way up there as the original foil, but the Modern Masters foils are intriguingly cheap. This is a great and powerful and often-played card, so I think it’ll have a premium.

Prediction: This version of the card will be bought in playsets, and supply will never have a chance to get too big. This will settle in the $75 range, bridging the gaps nicely.

 

Dark Ritual – $0.50-$80, $4-$53 foil, Preorder: $50 – I shouldn’t need to tell you that this is either a four-of or not played at all. You’re either desperate for the mana or you pay full price. I do love versions where this has the card type ‘Mana Source’ though.

Prediction: Those who want this will also be buying the full playset, but there are so few of those decks. The demand is low, as evidenced by the complete disregard by the market for the FTV version, so I think this will fall to about $30-$35.
Next week I’ll come back with the rest. Stay tuned!

Rachel Agnes, The Collector

That’s so Fetch

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Welcome to the first in our bi-weekly series aimed at cataloging the most important collectibles in Magic, The Collector – Editor.

Hello everyone!

For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Rachel and I am a diehard collector of Magic: The Gathering cards. I play a variety of formats ranging from EDH and Cube all the way to Vintage and Modern. My immense passion and love for the game is multifaceted. I love playing competitively as well as enjoying the artwork and the financial side of cards. Here on Mtgprice.com I will delve into the world of beautiful Magic cards and focus on the many great looking and rare upgrades you can make on your cards. I will discuss everything from ideal choices to pimp out your decks as well as cheap ways and best times to purchase those cards. I hope you enjoy the ride. It’s gonna be a roller coaster.

Upgrading your decks to their most perfect form is more of a journey than a source of instant gratification. You could call it an expedition <ahem>. Most of us don’t possess an exorbitantly large amount of capital to simply purchase every judge foil or text-less promo we see or want. So while we may be eager to acquire nicer cards, we want to do so to maximize our dollar and acquire at opportune times.

I’m tackling the fetchlands today because they are in an interesting place right now. Enemy color fetchands were recently reprinted in Modern Masters 2017, so they are currently at center stage again and many of us are looking to get in on some foils while the getting is good. An important note on fetchlands is that Wizards has not been kind to collectors with them because of uneven cycles and mismatching borders. This can make picking the ideal upgrade difficult, especially if you have very particular tastes.

The manabase is often the first, and most expensive, thing people aim to upgrade along their journey to beautify their deck, and fetchlands are some of the most important and flexible lands in your collection. They are a high priority in Vintage, Legacy, Modern, Commander, and Cube and as such, are extremely coveted in their rarer forms.

Naturally, as with upgrading many things in life, it always comes down to personal preference. Some people enjoy foil cards and some prefer old border or foreign. And the specifics break down even further. Promo foils, old border foils, pack foils, judge foils, foreign foils, foils with better artwork, rarity, price, the list goes on and on. Which version of a card you want primarily comes down to what you as an individual prefers and finds pleasing to the eye.

That being said, I certainly have my favorite ways to upgrade my cards and will be providing a hot list (in order) to show you how it all breaks down.

6) Khans of Tarkir Foil (2014)

These are the lowest foils on the totem pole for allied colored fetchlands. Not only are they the cheapest foils you can get, I also dislike their extremely digital artwork. The dragon-tied theme doesn’t have a matching version for the other 5 and the watermark is unwelcome. One positive note on these is the fact that you can get them in Russian and Korean, where the price shoots through the roof. Onslaught does not have Korean or Russian options, so this is ideal for someone who wants a uniform foreign language. These prices are relatively low and without any other reprint they would see an increase over time. However, I believe that Wizards will continue to print fetchlands over and over and it’s only a matter of time before we see them as frequently as commander products. For this reason, I wouldn’t suspect much of an increase in price here over years.

Khans of Tarkir Foreign Foil (2014)

  • Bloodstained Mire (Japanese) ~$60.00
  • Flooded Strand (Japanese) ~$100.00
  • Polluted Delta (Japanese) ~$110.00
  • Windswept Heath (Japanese) ~$55.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Japanese) ~$65.00
  • Bloodstained Mire (Korean) ~$150.00
  • Flooded Strand (Korean) ~$250.00
  • Polluted Delta (Korean) ~$400.00
  • Windswept Heath (Korean) ~$110.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Korean) ~$140.00
  • Bloodstained Mire (Russian) ~$180.00
  • Flooded Strand (Russian) ~$250.00
  • Polluted Delta (Russian) ~$720.00
  • Windswept Heath (Russian) ~$220.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Russian) ~$220.00

Prices for many foreign foils fluctuate and the above are very rough estimates but it gives a good idea into the price difference between English and the rest. The universally more expensive languages are Japanese, Korean, and Russian almost always commanding a higher price than their English counterparts. Because Zendikar fetchlands have these languages available as well, if these languages appeal to you, Khans of Tarkir may be the way to go.

5) Modern Masters 2017 Foils (2017)

  • Arid Mesa $47.00
  • Marsh Flats $37.00
  • Misty Rainforest $54.00
  • Scalding Tarn $74.00
  • Verdant Catacombs $62.00

These are by far the cheapest foil versions available for the enemy colored fetchlands. I dislike the watermark here as well, and because they keep the same artwork as the Zendikar printing I prefer those over these. The frame is also different but at least this is uniform with the Khans cycle. They are new and cheap now, but again I believe we are going to see more reprints of the fetchlands over the years. Seeing as this is the second time this artwork has been printed and possibly not the last I do not suspect these prices to creep up very high over the years. These do not come in Russian or Korean and because of how recently released this set is, the Japanese foil prices aren’t stable enough yet to discuss.

4) Zendikar Foil (2009)

This is the original printing for the enemy colored fetchlands. While the artwork looks very digital and, to me, inferior to the Onslaught artwork, they have grown on me. These do not have the ugly watermark the Modern Masters version has, but they are significantly more expensive. The Zendikar fetchlands are also noticeably less shiny than the KTK, Expedition, and Judge versions. They do not come in Korean but they do come in Japanese and Russian, with the latter commanding the most expensive price tag of all enemy fetchlands.

Zendikar Foreign Foil (2009)

  • Arid Mesa (Japanese) ~$130.00
  • Marsh Flats (Japanese) ~$120.00
  • Misty Rainforest (Japanese) ~$250.00
  • Scalding Tarn (Japanese) ~$300.00
  • Verdant Catacombs (Japanese) ~$175.00
  • Arid Mesa (Russian) ~$350.00
  • Marsh Flats (Russian) ~$325.00
  • Misty Rainforest (Russian) ~$1000.00
  • Scalding Tarn (Russian) ~$1250.00
  • Verdant Catacombs (Russian) ~$800.00

The prices are crazy for foreign Russian foils. Russian foil fetchlands don’t move hands in large amounts often so it can be hard to pinpoint exact prices. Just know that it is quite hard to track them down and you need a small fortune to even get a one-of set, let alone if you aim for a playset. If you sit down with some Russian Foil Zendikar fetchlands the only words to describe it are “opulence” and “beauty.”

As far as pricing goes, the English versions are significantly more expensive than the Modern Masters printing despite sharing the same artwork. Historically, sharing the same artwork and even similar frame has led the original version to depreciate over time and I feel the same thing will happen in this instance. I believe it is time to show patience with the Zendikar foil printing and wait until a price drop to pick them up.

3) Judge Foil (2009)

Judge foil lands are gorgeous. They are hard to find and certainly show dedication as you do have to search them out. They are the only fetchlands that cannot be opened in a booster pack, and because of this, they only come in English. I do love the way they look and they are super shiny and noticeable. My biggest issue with the Judge Promo fetchlands is that there are only 5 of them and without a way to perfectly match them, they can feel out of place. The large Judge logo as well as the strikingly different art style differentiate them enough from the five Zendikar fetches in my eye despite all being printed in the same year.

These prices on the Judge Foils have remained relatively stagnant over the last few years. A similar reprint could eventually come down the pipeline and I would not be shocked to see another Judge Fetchland promo (most likely starting with the enemy colored ones). Even as the Onslaught foils have continued to rise I feel like these will stay around this price for a while, as many prefer to have the old bordered foil to this new one.

2) Onslaught Foil (2002)

For those who enjoy original printings, this version is the way to go. Gorgeous artwork and amazing frame make the Onslaught foil rank quite high on the list. Notably, the Onslaught Foils are the only ones available in the old frame, and unfortunately for those who enjoy matching lands, there is no universal frame for this. Additionally, the artwork itself doesn’t shine at all so if that matters to you, you will want to pick differently. Personally, I enjoy adding these to my decks that contain many old bordered cards, such as my Vintage and Legacy decks. They are very sharp and what the artwork itself lacks in shine, the borders absolutely compensate for.

I have to mention one of my personal favorite aspects of the Onslaught foils, what I have lovingly named “the ding”. The swoosh is one of the best and a unique aspect of these cards (and all old border foils). These are the lands I would choose if there were matching versions for all 10 fetchlands. There is little to say except these cards are drool inducing.

Onslaught Foreign Foil (2002)

  • Bloodstained Mire (Japanese) ~$600.00
  • Flooded Strand (Japanese) ~$800.00
  • Polluted Delta (Japanese) ~$1500.00
  • Windswept Heath (Japanese) ~$550.00
  • Wooded Foothills (Japanese) ~$600.00

Onslaught was not printed in Korean or Russian (God forbid) so there are no crazy Russian prices floating around here. Still, Japanese is quite hard to find and only getting harder so if you want to pick these up you will searching far and wide. Japanese Onslaught commands the highest premium of all allied color fetchlands by a mile. Prepare you wallets because once you have these, you will not want to sell them.

The Onslaught foil prices have been creeping up lately and I believe this will continue. Since we will not be seeing anymore old frame cards, these will remain unique to collectors throughout time. I believe the price on these will continue to increase over time with Polluted Delta reaching around $400 and even Windswept Heath climbing towards $150.

1) Battle for Zendikar Expedition Foil (2015)

Ding! Ding! We have a winner. The Expedition printings are too stunning to ignore. The beautiful framing and full art of the Expedition series take the cake and are my pick for the best fetchland upgrade. The Expeditions display well on the board and my favorite way to stand out at the table is with shiny bling. Subtlety just doesn’t do it for me and these pop out from a distance. Expeditions also have the wonderful bonus of being the only perfectly uniform set of fetchlands. The artwork, while digital, all match in theme look great side by side. The borders and art really pop out which sets them apart from the rest in that category.

Expeditions aren’t without their downsides, though. They are only available in English so collectors who want to use foreign cards have no option here. Because the border is unique, they will not exactly match any other cards in your deck. For this reason, I go with Zendikar or Onslaught set foils for my older decks where the borders fit together better. I feel like Expeditions are amazing for cubes and Commander decks and really stand out from the rest, which is often the point of upgrading your cards.

At this time, you can find Expeditions notably cheaper than at the time of their release. The trend with most of these has been downward.  For instance, Misty Rainforest is currently selling for about $145. This is notably cheaper than the previous ~$225 at BFZ release, ~$200 in the months following, and ~$175 from about 3 months ago. Despite their beauty, you can probably find even sweeter deals on Expeditions in the coming months (I would aim at about $110-$120 for the Misty for example).

I believe the downward trend is mostly because of the many products Wizards continues to churn out. Players want to afford Eternal Masters, Modern Masters, Commander product, Duel decks, From the Vault, current Standard sets, and the list goes on. To do so, they need to sell the most liquid and valuable cards they own. For many new players, they may have cracked a few Expeditions recently from Battle for Zendikar and Oath of the Gatewatch, and as a result the market is flooded with them. Many people see falling prices of the fetchlands, which can also be attached to falling prices of the non-foil versions from KTK and MM3, and panic sell their Expeditions. While I don’t believe we will see such gorgeous artwork and borders on fetchlands for a long time, there is always the possibility for it, and that possibility keeps cards like this from skyrocketing.

Again, a reminder, this is my favorite version and you will have to make the best decision for yourself. Nobody knows you better than you.

Here is a piece of my personal collection for you to drool over:

In conclusion, upgrading your deck should be a mixture of two things: your budget and your tastes. Making your choice based on those criteria is the essence of improving the cards in your deck. Always remember that you don’t need foils or lavish cards to play your decks but Magic was made to be an expression of yourself and for some, like myself, it can even be addicting. I look forward to bringing you more content, now go out there and enjoy the journey!

Rachel Agnes is a VSL Competitor, Phyrexian Princess, Collector of all things shiny and a Cube, Vintage, Legacy, and EDH enthusiast.
Catch on Twitch and Twitter via Baetog_.

Jason Alt

Unlocked Pro Trader: French is Greek to Me

10 Comments

I’m going to be honest, the research for this article didn’t lead me where I thought it was going to at all. I started out with a request from my readers (and my boss, someone I’m even more inclined to listen to) that I talk about how the adoption of 1v1 Commander on Magic Online will affect that format and prices. It’s Commander and I write about Commander, so I should know about it, right? That was the theory, anyway. It was a theory I even accepted myself. “How different could it be?” I asked myself, not doing really any research between last week and today. “After all, it’s not like 1v1 Commander is Tiny Leaders.” You want to know what I learned right off the bat?

Actually, I will get to that in a second, but first there’s something I want to cover. What do I mean by the adoption of 1v1 Commander by Magic Online? Well, last week, they made this post to a few places including their Tumblr which is where I cribbed it from.

30 LIFE FOR 1V1 COMMANDER

The Modern Masters 2017Edition deployment today contained a change which moved the starting life total from 40 to 30 for 1v1 Commander games.  (Games with 3 or 4 players remain at a starting life total of 40.)

We have plans to introduce more support for 1v1 Commander.  As part of this, R&D determined that format is better off with a starting life total of 30. At one point we had planned to introduce this change as well as league support and a modified banned list today, but later decided to instead introduce it during Amonkhet season.

Unfortunately, in this process the life total change did not get taken out of this build, and so today it is live. Now that it is live, since it is a change we were planning on making anyway in the future, our intent is to simply leave it in place.

Stay tuned for an article about what support we plan to offer for 1v1 Commander leagues moving forward!

– Lee

This was exciting news for a non-zero number of people. I think the move to 30 life from 40 is more significant than the fact that they can play on MTGO, but regardless of why people are happy, this could mean more people adopting the format and therefore some money could be made for some people. Why not have your EDH writer talk about it? After all, like I said, it’s not like 1v1 is Tiny Leaders. You want to know what I learned in my research?

1v1 Commander is EXACTLY Tiny Leaders

There aren’t the same restrictions on casting cost, but there might as well be because people are not playing EDH cards, they’re playing 100 card Legacy singleton. The first place I headed was MTG Top8 to take a look at the list of most-played cards in 1v1 tournaments so I could get an idea of what the staples in that format were. I did a double take.

Oh, man. This is a Legacy list. I must have clicked on the wrong banner or something. Just to be sure, I navigated to the Legacy tab to check out their list and it wasn’t the same.

Here was the Legacy list and while it was obviously different off the bat because the first list didn’t include lands, adding lands to the 1v1 Commander list didn’t change much, it just pushed everything down.

This has to be for 1v1 Commander. Either that or people started playing Command Tower in Legacy when I wasn’t looking. What’s going on? There is a lot of cheap, basic card draw, 1-for-1 removal spells and a ton of blue cards. This is nothing like the Commander I know anything about. And where’s Sol Ring? To answer that question, we need to get into the next biggest difference between 1v1 Commander and traditional EDH.

Their Banlist is Insane

It’s actually sort of sane given the things you can do in a format with such a gigantic cardpool but it’s a weird amalgam of the EDH and Legacy banlists. It’s pretty clear they don’t want someone to get so far ahead on turn 1 that the other person can’t ever catch up and they banned cards like Sol Ring, Tolarian Academy and Mishra’s Workshop accordingly. Naturally Nectoric Ooze is banned (my hope in that typing that sentence it would be clear to the people who understand why Necrotic Ooze is banned that I have a deep understanding of the format and they would nod in assent, their respect for me deepening) because a combo that was in a fringe Legacy deck for 6 months until everyone got bored of it is pretty oppressive.

The full list is on their site but I’ll paste it here anyway.

Ancestral Recall
Ancient Tomb
Back to Basics
Black Lotus
Channel
Chaos Orb
Dig Through Time
Entomb
Falling Star
Fastbond
Food Chain
Gaea’s Cradle
Gifts Ungiven
Grim Monolith
Hermit Druid
Humility
Imperial Seal
Karakas
Library of Alexandria
Loyal Retainers
Mana Crypt
Mana Drain
Mana Vault
Mind Twist
Mishra’s Workshop
Mox Emerald
Mox Jet
Mox Pearl
Mox Ruby
Mox Sapphire
Mystical Tutor
Natural Order
Necrotic Ooze
Oath of Druids
Protean Hulk
Sensei’s Divning Top
Shahrazad
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale
Time Vault
Time Walk
Tinker
Tolarian Academy
Treasure Cruise
Vampiric Tutor
Ante cards are also banned.
The following cards are also banned from being played as a commander :
Derevi, Empyrial Tactician
Edric, Spymaster of Trest
Erayo, Soratami Ascendant
Marath, Will of the Wild
Oloro, Ageless Ascetic
Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary
Tasigur, the Golden Fang
Yisan, the Wanderer Bard
Zur the Enchanter

That’s a really big banlist, and the banned as a commander list is probably necessary. I don’t play this format, I can’t stress that enough, but I read what the people who play that format write online when they are in the mood for complaining about Magic and they didn’t like how oppressive Derevi was or how consistent Yisan was or the fact that no one wants to play 1v1 EDH with them because it misses the entire point of EDH.

Still, Wizards supporting the format more, changing the official rules to reflect that 30 life is better than 40 if you want games to finish in a timely manner and signaling that they’re willing to have more input on the future bannings and rules applications for this format (something people are largely in favor of for a reason I can’t fathom) at least hints at some more legitimacy for this. It’s not Tiny Leaders in this regard – Wizards has more than acknowledged it and is signalling that they plan to support it, even if it’s relegated to Magic Online (not that they could stop people if they wanted to play it elsewhere, could they?). What does any of this mean for prices, if anything at all?

Prices online of some staples could be disproportionately affected, but which ones? I set out to find cards that were played in 1v1 Commander but not regular EDH and instead I found that it’s going to be tougher to find cards that are played in 1v1 Commander but not Legacy and Vintage.

What I found when I scoured 10 pages of their top cards played in 1v1 is that when I finally got out of Legacy staples I ended up with cards that were in fewer than 10% of the decks. 10% of the decks in a fringe format that don’t get additional support from Legacy or Vintage or EDH aren’t good spec targets. Is 1v1 support on MODO going to bump the price on Sudden Demise, Evasive Maneuvers or a bunch of other cards you may or may not have to look up because you don’t know what they do?

I set out to highlight some targets that 1v1 could push up but there’s nothing. 1v1 could create additional demand for cards already played in Legacy and for stagnant Legacy cards, this is pretty important. Legacy is plateauing a bit and if another format comes in and picks up the slack, some of the cards tailing off could head back up and the cards flat could see a bump. This could be the best thing for Legacy rather than EDH and while that’s not what I set out to prove, I don’t mind pivoting a bit and getting you guys some picks.

Mental Misstep

This is a Vintage card but it’s banned in Legacy which has been disastrous for its price. It’s buyable for $0.50 right now which is pretty brutal for a once-proud card. Foils seem much sexier at $15 right now and while Vintage is propping that up, there is still possible movement. One interesting thing to note is that this is even cheaper on MODO – around 0.15 tickets, in fact. This is a card that is in almost 30% of 1v1 decks putting up results (in some ways this is a better measure than EDHREC’s “here is what a bunch of lunatics built” but in some ways, not so much since EDHREC can forecast future demand better) and will get played in 30% of new 1v1 decks on MODO. Both paper and MODO seem like cheap, low-risk buys. Misstep never really got a chance to get lost in dollar boxes since it started out very valuable and tailed off, rather than the other way around. This could have the same bounce as a “second spike” card.

True-Name Nemesis

Nemesis is ticking back up and it’s time to ride the wave as it were. Legacy and Vintage fish decks are all about this card since it gets merfolk buffs and for a while people were using it just to hold swords in neo-squawk builds. This is in 25% of the builds which isn’t surprising because it’s much, much better in 1v1 commander than it is in multiplayer. This is already cresting and I think given how unlikely a reprint anytime soon feels, this is a great target.

Green Sun’s Zenith

This is a graph shape I can get behind. The printing in Eternal Masters (it’s banned in Modern) tanked the price but EDH and now 1v1 could give it the demand it needs to get back up. In any case, this is basically historically cheap and as good as this card is in as many formats where it’s still legal, I can get behind this. I might not have noticed this is still cratering if I hadn’t started this fools’ errand of an article so, hooray, I… guess? This is a silly card that does silly, unfair things and it’s good enough to be banned in Modern, so why not buy it at its floor? Seems like that’s what we try to do, here.

Misdirection

Misdirection is a card I’m not super duper confident about but based on the metrics we usually use, this is a low-risk high-reward target. It won’t get as expensive as it was when it was a Legacy staple in low supply but Conspiracy didn’t add quite as many copies as it would need to add to suppress the price forever, so it’s clear that a lack of demand is what’s hurting this once-proud card. Increased demand could help us get there. I’m not as confident about this as I am the others and this is in a scant 20% of decks currently, but we could see a lot more demand if 1v1 picks up, both in paper and on MODO.

I didn’t end up coming up with the targets I thought I might when I set out to write this piece but we did identify some cards that are likely to go up even if nothing happens so there will be some real upside possible if 1v1 starts pushing prices up. More demand is always good for staples and these cards are staples for sure. Next week we’ll have Amonkhet to talk about and I’m much happier about that, so make sure to come back next week. Thanks for reading. Until next time!

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY