Uncommons and Commons of Dragons of Tarkir

March 23, 2015 Jared Yost 2 Comments

By: Jared Yost

This week I’ll be looking at the uncommons and commons in Dragons of Tarkir to analyze their power and see if any have financial value. First though, you should check out the 7000+ word coverage that Travis offered us for the mythics and rares of the set. Though the comments on the article and the Reddit posting may be contentious, I think it’s a great read in order to understand the near future values of the mythics and rares. Since we’re still in the preorder honeymoon phase, card prices are pretty wacky right now. Travis takes them back down to Earth and reminds us that the average value of a box needs to reach a certain equilibrium as more boxes are opened on the market.

Now that we’re caught up on the status of the mythics and rares, let’s get cracking. Of course, I’ll need to cover some ground rules like I’ve done for Fate Reforged.

Since covering just the mythics and rares was such a massive undertaking, Travis tasked me with covering the remaining uncommons and commons in the set that seem powerful enough to see Standard, Modern, Legacy, and even Cube or Vintage play. I’ll stick to Travis’ original article format for this and list out the uncommons and commons I like in the following order:

White
Blue
Black
Red
Green
Multicolored
Artifact
Land

I will not list the uncommons/commons that are bulk, since most uncommons/commons will be bulk and only a select few will wind up seeing tournament play. Also keep in mind that it is really hard for an uncommon to break a $2. Unless the uncommon is insane, then it will almost never be worth more than $2 even at the height of its Standard play. Don’t go around picking up tons of chase uncommons expecting them to spike in price during their Standard life. If an uncommon is really good also expect it to be in an event deck or other supplementary product, furthering the chance none of us will profit from it financially.

I think the best mind set to be in while reviewing uncommons and commons from a financial perspective is to think about the best way to pick them up cheaper than retail, which usually is to set them aside when you crack them or draft them so that you don’t later have to buy these cards at retail prices when you need them for a deck. Foils are nice pick ups for eternal playable uncommons and commons if they are powerful enough to be included in Modern, Legacy, or even Vintage decks. Many times I will prefer to pick up foil copies as they will retain more value in the long term.

Alright, let’s dive into the uncommons and commons in Dragons of Tarkir.

White

Aven Sunstriker
Boy, Skyhunter Skirmisher has come a long way huh? While his Standard applications are questionable at best, I could see it slotting into a warrior deck after Theros rotates from Standard. What I really like the Sunstriker for is Commander or Cube, especially since players are still buying the Forged in Stone deck. Skyhunter Skirmisher is in this deck and this card is an obvious upgrade. Finally, another reason to like this card is because casuals love cheap bodies, with evasion, that can quickly kill an opponent.

Dragon Hunter
Like Sunstriker above, I feel that this card could have a home in a future warriors Standard build. It actually has a stronger case for inclusion, as it has relevant protection in a format with Dragons and is an important one drop that is needed to curve out nicely. However, that warriors deck may never actually materialize. Mardu Woe-Reaper is much better than this card and doesn’t see a lick of play yet. Who knows, maybe Magic Origins will give us more warrior support since it is a pretty generic tribe and we might get a lord in that set, but otherwise this cards future is tenable at best. Still, I’m going to be setting aside all the copies I get since I feel that warriors is on track to become something in Standard.

Graceblade Artisan
Certainly a weaker Kor Spiritdancer, however that doesn’t mean that casuals won’t eat this card up. Setting our extra copies aside could mean that we’ll be pleasantly surprised in the future.

Orator of Ojutai (and the other four uncommon Dragons of Tarkir “dragons in hand matters” cards)
The “dragons in hand matters” cards might be decent in Standard, however I have a feeling that they’re only going to have a main purpose in limited. Now, if this was a Wall of Omens with flying, this card would be absolutely bonkers. As it is, dragons usually cost too much in Standard to make it worth wanting to play enough of them to be able to draw a card if you play this on turn two. It could have Standard potential but this is more speculation than anything else. I’ll be watching to see if players can make this card work well in Standard.

Silkwrap
This might actually be usable in Standard since the format is so fast. The only reason Suspension Field isn’t heavily played is because you can’t play it on curve in order to better use it as removal. Silkwrap will pretty much always be played on curve if you have it, though of course it is terrible in the late game when you are in topdecking mode. Not sure if it will make the cut in Standard, though it can’t hurt to set some aside just in case.

Surge of Righteousness (and the other four uncommon Dragons of Tarkir color hosers)
Looks like we’ve received some color hoser cards in Dragons of Tarkir in addition to Theros. Color hosers are cards specifically printed to be sideboard cards, in case any one particular color becomes too powerful in the format. While Theros gave us color hosers that affected the same color (see Dark Betrayal and others), Dragons of Tarkir went back to a more traditional route of having the color hosers affect enemy colors.

These particular color hosers are great because they affect two colors, not just one. I think this means we’ll be seeing them over their Standard life in sideboards to represent the state of the current metagame. Definitely keep all the color hosers you get from this set and set them aside – any one of them could be good going into the near future and throughout their Standard life.

Blue

Anticipate
I think that Anticipate has a good chance of seeing Standard play somewhere. Yes, it’s a terrible Impulse and we already have Dig Through Time, Sultai Charm, and Jace’s Ingenuity, yet more card selection usually isn’t a bad thing. This might even slot itself into a new combo deck or even U/W Heroic. I’ll be setting my extra copies aside, if not for this Standard than post-Theros Standard or even Modern.

Encase in Ice
See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Gudul Lurker
Wow, who knew that Triton Shorestalker needed an upgrade already? Definitely a possible inclusion in Mono Blue Devotion, which may be revived now that we have Shorecrasher Elemental. Since it has Megamorph, you can get extra value out of it if the game goes late, which bumps Shorestalker out of the list and slots this in. Even if Standard doesn’t pan out for this card, it is sure to be a casual hit and is definitely a cube worthy if anything else.

Silumgar Sorcerer
Speaking of mono blue devotion, Silumgar Sorcerer would fit well into this strategy. Keep in mind that Exploit is a “may” effect – you can just as easily keep your mana open to counter a creature spell as to cast this as a 2/1 with flying and flash. That’s some nice value, and a good way of playing Jedi mind tricks with your opponent. Now in Standard, when you draw, play a land, and say go in blue everyone is going to need to consider this card.

I have a feeling that this is one of the better uncommons of the set.

Black

Blood-Chin Rager
Wow, now this is the two mana 2/2 that warriors have always wanted! Efficiently costed creature, in a relevant creature type, that grants semi-evasion to the rest of your warriors when it attacks? I think this card is pretty good and will be seen in warriors if the deck starts popping up in Standard.

Duress
Even though it has been printed into oblivion, Duress will always be worth something on a buylist. Stock your extra copies away, especially foils, and you might be able to cash them out or use them favorably in a trade in the future.

Self-Inflicted Wound
See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Shambling Goblin
Shambling Goblin is a pretty decent 1/1, since it can trade up into x/2’s and sometimes two-for-one your opponent if they have two x/1’s out on the field. Though it is only a common, I feel like it is one of the better commons in the set.

Ultimate Price
Though Khans was wedge themed, and we’re still seeing plenty of multicolored creature in Standard, there are also plenty of mono-colored targets out there for Ultimate Price. Two mana removal spells in black have always been played heavily in Standard, and this time it will see play again. Definitely one of the best uncommons in the set and will eventually go up to $1-$2 and stay there for its Standard life.

Virulent Plague
Unless Standard becomes swarmed with tokens left and right, this is almost always just going to be in sideboards. Still though, it is an awesome sideboard card, and should be worth something. $0.50 will most likely be the peak since the effect is pretty narrow.

Draconic Roar
See my review of Orator of Ojutai in White. Though I will say that this is one of the better “dragons in hands matters” cards in the set since most of the better dragons are red. If you can activate both modes on this card it will be a pretty huge beating for your opponent.

Dragon Fodder
Even with several reprints, like Duress this is a casual favorite so it will always be worth something on a buylist. It might even see Standard play, so that could further bolster its price in the future.

Dragonlord’s Servant
Like Douglass Johnson, I believe that this is one of the best casual specs in the entire set. Dragonspeaker Shaman is a very popular card amongst dragon enthusiasts, and this guy fits right along curve at two mana into a three mana Shaman. I would definitely target foils of this card because they will be seen in dragon themed Commander decks all the time.

Rending Volley

See my review of Surge of Righteousness above, in the white section.

Sarkhan’s Triumph
If Dragonlord’s Servant is one of the best casual specs of the set, then this is the number one casual spec in Dragons of Tarkir. An instant speed dragon tutor? What more could Scion of Ur-Dragon players ask for in their deck. A staple in any red dragon themed commander deck from this point out. Foils will be especially nice targets.

Twin Bolt
Maybe I like this card too much because it’s Forked Bolt for one mana more, but that one mana more makes all the difference. Being instant speed does matter, though I still think that doesn’t make up for it costing two mana. Not sure if it will be good enough to be played in Standard but it could be a good sideboard against token strategies if you’re not playing black for Virulent Plague. I think this will be a nice casual card if anything.

Green

Ainok Survivalist
A nice sideboard card, if anything else. This will keep the Survivalist above bulk at least. I really like this as an addition to Cubes, so I think foils are good targets.

Display of Dominance
See my review of Surge of Righteousness in White. I will say that I think this is the weakest of the color hosers for now, so in my opinion I think it has the lowest chance of seeing Standard play in the current environment. In the future though it could be great.

Explosive Vegetation
Though Explosive Vegetation has had two other reprints, it is still usually above $1. The Dragons of Tarkir version will pretty much always be worth at least $0.40, so extra copies should easily be able to be shipped to buylists or offered in trades. I would target foils, as the the only other foil version of the card we’ve had so far is the Onslaught version. Dragons of Tarkir foils can be had for a fraction of the Onslaught foil price. Due to Commander demand, I expect the foil versions of DoT Explosive Vegetation to creep up over time.

Scaleguard Sentinels
See my review of Orator of Ojutai in White. Scaleguard Sentinels is pretty awesome if you can get the +1/+1 counter – a 3/4 for two green is super efficient, even for Standard.

Multicolored

Multicolored Uncommon Dragon Cycle
Out of the five, the weakest are Cunning Breezedancer and Enduring Scalelord. Their effects are only really good in limited, whereas the other dragons will be nice inclusions in Commander decks. Ruthless Deathfang could be slotted into a blue/black Zombies build with for example Grimgrin, Corpse-Born as commander or another U/B deck that utilizes sacrifice effects. Savage Ventmaw has a neat interaction with the enchantment Aggravated Assault, where you can have infinite attack phases. Finally Swift Warkite has a nice recursion ability (or sneak ability if you’re putting something into play from your hand) that allows you to keep putting creatures into play for enters the battlefield triggers.

Ranked:
1) Savage Ventmaw
2) Swift Warkite
3) Ruthless Deathfang
4) Cunning Breezedancer and Enduring Scalelord

Artifacts & Lands

Dragon Monuments
The monuments will always have a place in Commander, as they provide mana fixing and allow themselves to become 4/4 flying creatures until end of turn if needed. This is pretty nice in a format where board wipes are about as common as water. Though they’ll probably never be more than $0.25 each, I still expect buy lists will want to grab these every so often to fill Commander demands.

Summary

Here’s the top five uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable) in list format so that you know which uncommons and commons I think will hold the most financial value in Fate Reforged moving forward.

HONORABLE MENTION: Explosive Vegetation

Sarkhan’s Triumph
Dragonlord’s Servant
Silumgar Sorcerer
Color Hoser Cycle (Surge of Righteousness and others)
Ultimate Price

Here is my top five FOIL uncommons and commons (by cycle, if applicable)

Sarkhan’s Triumph
Dragonlord’s Servant
Explosive Vegetation
Multicolored Dragons (especially the UB, RG, and BR dragons)
Duress

Again, let me reiterate that I am not recommending that players buy thousands of these uncommons/commons en masse trying to make a profit by expecting them to spike. Uncommons and commons are notoriously slow to increase in price, if at all. It takes something like Delver of Secrets level of play to make that happen – and even then it was a few years before it really started going up in value.

I also hope this article will enable players to identify the more powerful uncommons and commons in the set so that they can pick them up for decks if they want to play them, and that it helps players building cubes to identify which foil uncommons and commons are best to pick up.

Casual Fridays

Casual Standouts from DTK

March 20, 2015 Cliff Daigle 3 Comments

By: Cliff Daigle

Dragons of Tarkir has no shortage of awesome cards. Some of these are build-around-me additions to a Cube, others will make waves in Tiny Leaders, and several seem to be designed for the kitchen table crowd. I am going to talk about a few of these, along with the price I’m comfortable getting in at. If something blows up in Standard or other Constructed format, my pricing will undoubtedly be off.

Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit – Sure, she’s amazing in Tiny Leaders, but she’s also an enabler in all sorts of White Weenie strategies. Her mana cost is probably the biggest thing holding her back, as it’s not easy to get double white on turn two. Pick her up for $1 or less.

Hidden Dragonslayer – The rule about Morphs in EDH or Cube was this: it’s either Exalted Angel or Willbender. Khans block has given us some amazing morphs, and this cycle of cheap, powerful Megamorphs might be among the best of all. Singleton formats are where you really want flexibility, and you have a range of useful things to do here. That said, I think this is another dollar rare.

Profound Journey – I had Obzedat’s Aid in my Kaalia deck for the longest time, and it’s…serviceable. It has been cut, and while this is potentially twice as powerful, it costs even more. What’s really going to bother you is how often you spend seven mana and get back something that costs a lot less. Bulk rare.

Radiant Purge – I think this might be one of the sneakier cards of the set. Two mana for an instant-speed exile effect is not to be undervalued. It’s true that it would be better if it said “Exile target multicolored permanent” but we just got Utter End for such universal applications. I think this will hold a price due to being a popular sideboard card in Standard, so around $2.

Secure the Wastes – Believe it or not, while we’ve had numerous versions of this effect before, we’ve never had one this cheap, especially as an instant! This is an auto-include in any EDH token strategy, and I think it’s good enough for Cube too. I’ll be especially interested in foils around four or five dollars.

Clone Legion – In case you forgot, Wizards R & D plays a lot of EDH. This is a neat way to either win more on your own awesome board, or play catch-up with just one card. This is not a Standard card, this is absolutely a haymaker, battlecruiser, giant Commander effect. This is going to be better than you think it is, no matter if you’re ahead, behind, or at parity. It’s not going to be bulk, but I’ll be surprised if it’s ever more than $2 in nonfoil.

Living Lore – Some people are going to try and make this good. Don’t be one of those people. Bulkiest of bulk, until some weird Legacy combo pops up.

Stratus Dancer – I think this card is good enough for Standard, though to be honest, I’m not someone who plays a lot of that. Nonetheless, every mode on this card seems good. A 2/1 flyer for two is a good starting point, and if you have the time and mana, holding up an uncounterable counterspell for their sweeper is pretty amazing. I like this a lot in Cube and Commander too. This might be the priciest of the cycle, at around $3.

Hedonist’s Trove – This basically gives you a second library to play cards from. There’s a lot to be said for effects like this, but the problem is that you have to do a lot of work to fill their graveyard. I love it, but I’m not going to try and play it. Bulk.

Blood-Chin Fanatic – Kresh the Bloodbraided has a new best friend. So does Hamletback Goliath. The pieces are there on a decent body for the price, but this will struggle to be more than a dollar or two.

Damnable Pact – There is a lot of fun to be had with these two modes. With a little mana, it’s a way to get a couple of cards. With lots of mana, it’s the finisher against people with low life or small libraries. It’s a surprisingly versatile spell, and should be considered in most decks. The card I’d measure it against is Diabolic Revelation, except that Revelation is a terrible card at less than seven, whereas there’s plenty of games I’d be happy to cast this for two or three. I think this will have a nice home around $2.

Virulent Plague – Hear me out. You should be giving serious consideration to playing this in most of your Commander/Tiny Leaders games. There’s very few tokens that can survive this without help, and mostly those are 3/3 Beasts and 4/4 Angels, which need to be cut down in size anyway. This is also an intriguing sideboard card in Modern, at least until Splinter Twin gets banned. I’ll be looking for foils of this around $1.50.

Descent of Dragons – I know that lots of people have fooled around with this, looking for combos that generate all sorts of advantages, but I’m thinking about how if I already have a bunch of creatures, I should be winning anyway. This is a mana less than Devout Invocation, and that’s a dollar mythic.

I think Descent’s price is going to open high on assorted hype and will trickle downward. I won’t be trying to get these until they fall to $5 or lower.

Impact Tremors – If you see someone lay this down on turn two in a Commander game, your target is acquired. This is half of the cost of Purphoros, for half the damage, so you’ll need twice as many tokens to be generated. Very doable. I’ll be watching for foils under $1.

Lightning Berserker – This card might be the real deal in mono-red decks. It also might not be. It’s not quite as durable as Monastery Swiftspear, but is there a better late topdeck? Perhaps the question is, would a red deck play this over Crater’s Claws? Some combination thereof? I think it’ll be worth picking these up in trades throughout the draft season, just in case.

Rending Volley – This might as well say “Best Sideboard Card Against Twin” on it. Spellskite can’t touch it, and it’s got Combust beaten by a full mana. I’m going to be looking for these around 50-75 cents, and I’m game for $5 foils. This is a very Cube-able card as well.

Roast – Yes, the damage can’t hit a flyer, and that’s a big mark against it. But everything else is amazing. Two mana! Who cares if it’s a sorcery, just get in there! Tasigur, Siege Rhino, you name the wingless problem and it’s solved. I feel good about this being about a dollar, and the foils should be around $5. This and Rending Volley might well be some very premium foils if eternal red decks decide it’s worth it.

Zurgo – He is who he is. He’s certainly not who he was. Poor guy. Stay away.

Assault Formation – Even in foil, I’m not interested. Rolling Stones has been a card for a long time, and neither of its foils can crack $5.

Inspiring Call – I meant to add this to last week’s piece, as this is something my Experiment Kraj deck wants very very badly in foil. I expect I’ll pay about $2 for that.

All Foil Commands – Be very wary of picking these up without having a specific plan in mind. Some of the multicolor modal cards are very high in foil, some are not. I want a foil Silumgar’s Command, and others will be wanting these in foil, but the key is in their eternal playability. Boros Charm is the best example, but even Golgari Charm is getting good mileage and expensive foils. I’m going to let the metagame sort the commands for me before I move in.

Accumulated Knowledge

Accumulated Knowledge 1 – Intro to History of Magic Finance

March 20, 2015 Ross Lennon 4 Comments

Hello! For those of you who don’t know me already, my name is Ross. Before we begin, I’d like to share my philosophy on Magic finance. I am not a store owner or vendor (although I have worked in the business before), and I have more than a decade of tournament experience. I have observed firsthand all of the changes that have influenced the course of Magic finance in the last ten years, and I prioritize teaching over telling. If I am able to give my readers a more firm understanding of what to look for and why, then they will be able to have continued success over the course of their gaming careers.

I believe strongly in long-term speculation rather than short-term targets (which is something we will discuss today), as well as catering your targets to your best fit, rather than attempting to mimic the successes of others. I also believe that the key to educating someone is by entertaining them as well, so I try to approach my writing with a light and approachable manner. Professionally, my work is in commercial insurance and risk assessment/management, so I typically identify loss potential as a major (if not the primary) factor in determining the potential of an investment. But enough about me, let’s get to work.

Magic writing (any kind of content on it, really) is often very ephemeral in nature. Cards rotate, formats phase in and out of popularity, players (and even writers) come into and out of phases of their life where the game is a priority. The reason why I personally enjoy the writing (and podcasting) of Mike Flores is that he has a wealth of background knowledge to help make comparisons between Magic‘s present and its past. Being able to anchor your present mindset with past experience makes for more structured and informed decision making. That is, of course, just one piece of the puzzle. Magic has changed drastically in the last several years, both in how the game is played, and who is playing it.

KEY CONCEPT: THE ZENDIKAR BOOM

I’d like to quickly explain what is perhaps the most important factor in Magic finance in the last several years. Beginning in 2009 (around the release of Magic 2010 and Zendikar), the active Magic player population began to grow at extraordinary numbers. This dynamic increase has continued ever since, and has created both increased demand for cards, as well as higher print runs for newer releases. We will synthesize this information later, but I wanted to get the definition out of the way now, because this is a crucial topic for financiers.

Even though Magic is over 20 years old, Magic finance is largely a new phenomenon. The early days of Magic writing were a mix of fascinating, if imperfect, ideas (“The Schools of Magic” is a personal favorite) and extremely rudimentary grasps of what was actually good (Do you realize Giant Trap Door Spider won a pro tour?!).

In the years since, Magic writing has improved exponentially, but much of Magic finance remains woefully underdeveloped by comparison. My goal over these next few weeks is to help explain and develop upon things that may not be overly apparent to those who are new to the game, as well as solidify the understanding of the more advanced.

I want to spend the rest of today discussing the Zendikar Boom, so that you can broaden out the scope of it to inform your decisions. It should be mentioned upfront that Wizards very rarely releases any type of solid numbers on things like player population or print run— the latter for various reasons, and the former because even their internal figures are rough at best (DCI numbers track active tournament players, but what percentage are they of the Magic-buying public¹?). When numbers are released, they are typically percentages, showing the increase or decrease in measurable metrics like sales or event participation.

Most of the population figures prior to Zendikar hover around the six million range. This number was thrown out in advertisements (and likely in early Hasbro acquisitions talks) as, “Join the game with over six million players worldwide!” Sometimes the number is seven million, sometimes five million, but the impression was that it was largely a static total number. Beginning in 2009, however, Magic suddenly began to show double digit growth, with percentages increasing around 25 percent annually. This means that by 2010, there were 7.5 million Magic players, definitely on the higher end of the fluctuations from 2000 until then. A 25 percent increase from there brought the population to roughly 9.375 million, the highest it has ever been.

It is important to understand how much of WOTC’s work is done in advance. Things like a set’s design begin more than two years in advance of its release, and even though printing happens much closer to getting the product on shelves, it is often determined on numbers arrived at much earlier. Many stores ran out of Zendikar product between the first and second printings. This indicates that there was insufficient quantity at the distributor level, not that a bunch of stores did really well.

Once can be a fluke, but twice and thrice may indicate a potential trend. In the Hasbro shareholder conference call for 2012 (fiscal year), they indicated that Magic had 25 percent growth for the last four years (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012). By just doing the same math we were doing before, we can guesstimate that Magic was at 11.7 million players in 2011, and beyond 14.6 million in 2012. In four years, the player population has added nearly ten million new people. Even if these numbers are fuzzy, the impact is not. If Zendikar was printed for six or seven million people, but now there are almost 15 million (other sources show “only” 12 million), what does that do to demand?

Now, when a set is in print, Wizards can always run more off the presses—even though the entire process is outsourced, the company is still able to get a few extra waves of product out after the official release. Any set that was no longer in print at the release of Zendikar, however, was done. Those sets, by the standards of the next few years, were extremely under-printed. Return to Ravnica, which had a much higher printing than Zendikar, had the same problem with running out of product before the release of the second wave (although not to as noticeable a degree). The annual percentage Hasbro has shown have all remained positive (showing growth), although if I recall correctly, this year’s was below double digits for the first time (six percent). That percentage increase is small, but the overall number behind it is still a massive amount of new players.

The most immediate impact this has is pressuring on the supply-side of any card printed before the Boom. Even if the percentage of demand stays the same (say, nine percent of all Magic players want a playset of Guttural Response), the actual number behind that percentage may have doubled. Not all of those players are going to transition into Legacy (or even sanctioned play), but how many of them want Underground Seas? The before and after on popular commons and uncommons from Modern Masters shows the impact an increase in supply can have on cards that fit our interests. It’s also why cards like Sleight of Hand (which had multiple printings!) are able to get high prices even at common. If you are looking for smart buys, they should most likely be from before the Boom impacted printing. Of course, unlike Guttural Response, which I mentioned just a minute ago, it should be a card people actually want.

The flip side, of course, is understanding what things to actively stay away from. While I would not say that newer cards are worth avoiding all together, you have to have a good reason and a better price. My personal baseline is $3 (the price of an in-print booster pack at my LGS). I like Rest in Peace as a card that sees play in both Modern and Legacy (as well as Commander, Vintage, Cube, Tiny Leaders, and whatever weird format has been invented since I sent this to my editor), and I can get two for the price of a booster. When considering cards from the last two or three years, you really have to have a clear idea of future potential to offset the huge amount of supply compared to cards from six or more years ago.

That’s all we are going to have time for today. Let me know what your thoughts are in the comments or on the forums. and I’m excited to be a member of MTGPrice!

Best,

Ross

1We will definitely talk about what Rosewater and company call “The Invisibles” next week.

Conjured Currency, Modern Masters

Conjured Currency: Hot Potatoes

March 18, 2015 Douglas Johnson 10 Comments

It’s That One Guy from Brainstorm Brewery

Hey, everyone! You might remember me from brainstormbrewery.com, where I’ve been writing Magic finance articles for the past year and a half. You might remember great classics as Be Your Own Buylist, Checking in the Closet, Power 10, One More Card, The Nekusar Effect, Common Rares, Rent a Car(d), and Wizards has Never Done That! If I had to give a list of my articles that I’m most proud of and feel are the most informative, I think that’s a pretty comprehensive list. Hopefully, this week’s bundle of words is going to be one that gets added to that list. While I will no longer be writing finance content for Brainstorm Brewery, you can still read my articles here on MTG Price every week, and I’ll still be working with BSB in one shape or form. Thanks for sticking with me!

Have you Heard about the Word?

The word of the week (and month, and next couple of months), is dragon. Dragon, dragon, dragon. Dargon, winged wyvern, scaly fire-breathing lizard, Shivan—however you want to say it. Dragons are the talk of the town, in both the casual realm and the finance world. Everyone’s hunting down the next Scion of the Ur-Dragon, as if they were the Khans in the first set of the block. While there are so many people rushing to pick up cards that they’re expecting to spike, I’m leaning towards liquidating some cards that are either dead weight at this point, or are likely candidates for reprinting in the near future.

Modern Masters 2015 is a mere two months away, and so is Grand Prix Las Vegas (with GP Chiba in Japan and GP Utrecht in the Netherlands being played simultaneously), so I’m looking to start getting rid of the inflated Modern staples that have a shot at being in the set. There’s also Magic Origins on the horizon, not to mention From the Vault: Angels coming out toward the end of the summer. There are lots of opportunity for Wizards to reprint some of the more valued cards in various formats, so I’m looking to stay clear of being hit too hard by selling early. I want to reinforce that the idea of this article is less of a “What do I think will be in Modern Masters???!!!111”, and more of a “I think these cards are too risky to hold onto in the short term, and I am looking at liquidating them in the next couple of weeks.” Some of you might be more inclined to hold these cards for a bit longer, but I prefer to avoid as much risk as possible, and just lock in what I can, when I can.

The Praetor Cycle

Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
Urabrask the Hidden
Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur
Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger
Sheoldred, Whispering One

New Phyrexia is the most recent set that MMA2015 will contain, and it’s already confirmed to have a higher print run than the original set. But how much larger, you ask? Well, we can’t really say as of yet. However, it’s safe to assume that Wizards has realized the mistakes that occurred in 2013, and will be rectifying them in 2015, at least to a degree. What’s important to take away here is that if they get reprinted, some praetors will take a bigger hit than others. Elesh Norn is the biggest red flag here, at $33. If she’s not reprinted, she probably continues to creep upward to $40, but I’m jumping ship here while I can lock in money. I don’t want to own any Praetors that I’m not using come May.

Gitaxian Probe

Gitaxian Probe is a $3 common. Let that sink in for a moment. It wasn’t printed a decade ago like Serum Visions was, but it’s still $3. Maybe there’s a chance of it creeping up towards $4 in the longer term, but I don’t really care to have any part of that. I’m happy buying these across the buylist table at $1, and shipping them for $2 or $2.50 out of my local display case. While Phyrexian mana is pretty awkward to have to reprint, Modern Masters is pretty much the perfect excuse to do it.

Lightning Bolt

Did you know that the cheapest edition of Bolt is also pretty much $3 at this point? It’s the most popular nonland card in Modern, according to MTG Goldfish. The last time it was printed was in the Premium Deck Series: Fire & Lightning set, and before that was M11. If it’s not going to be in MMA2015, I can see it being put into another casual product like a Duel Decks or Commander product. I had these in my spec box when they were $1, and now I believe they’ve ripened to the point where I want to harvest the crackling energy that is pure profit. That being said, this isn’t something I would liquidate in an emergency if you’re running them in a deck. At the most, you’ll probably lose $6 per playset if it’s put into a supplemental product. I just wouldn’t advocate holding onto extras or stocking up on additional copies expecting a continued climb for too much longer.

Congregation at Dawn

If you haven’t heard, this recently jumped up in price to $3 because of speculation on a new (well, semi-new) Modern combo with Collected Company. The idea is to tutor up three small creatures that can go infinite together, then slam them all on the board at once with the new Dragons of Tarkir rare. Personally, I think the combo is a bit too clunky, and it’s trying too hard to be what Birthing Pod used to be. Foils have jumped up to $15 on the low end of eBay, but I’m still not upset about getting rid of the one I had at $12 while it was on the rise. While the card is getting increasingly hard to find due to lack of reprints, I’d get out now if you managed to buy in for cheap.

Master of Waves

Once Nightveil Specter took a vacation, Master of Waves was lonely, and sank into a deep financial depression. Until Dragons of Tarkir came along and a newfound friend appeared! Because of Shorecrasher Elemental’s reveal, there were rumors spread throughout the community. Is Mono-Blue Devotion going to be good again? Should I buy a significant amount of Master of Waves, and be prepared to sell them for $20 like I did last year? Apparently the answer to all of those questions was a resounding and presumptuous “YES!” Unfortunately, that’s not exactly what I expect to happen. While it has jumped from $3 to $7 in the past couple of weeks, I’m advocating that you also make a jump of your own: out of your copies of MoW that you already own. Even if Devotion becomes a deck again, there’s no “Wow” factor this time at a pro tour to make everything’s price go absurdly crazy. Get out while you can, there’s really no financial hope for Master of Waves in any other format than Standard.

Zendikar Basics

Ever since these were inserted into the Zendikar and Worldwake booster packs, I remember people saying, “I’m stocking up on these, they’ll be the next Unhinged lands,” or something to that effect. Well almost six years have gone by, and these still have barely breached $1.50 each, let alone the $5 that was predicted by many. Instead of becoming hard to find chase basics that show off how regal an individual’s deck is, the non-foil ones are mediocre for “blinging out” purposes, and have mainly been relegated to cubes and Limited players’ arsenals for a cheap alternative to Unhinged.

If you were hoping for these to pay for your retirement, I’d stop and give it up already. This slow to non-existent growth is accompanied by the fact that we’re returning to Zendikar this fall, and there’s a non-zero possibility that Wizards decides to include some nostalgia in the packs by reprinting these full-art lands. Instead of keeping the ZEN full art lands in your spec boxes, they’re probably best kept for personal use or unloaded to move cash elsewhere. While I think the foils are still a fine pick-up in trades, I wouldn’t touch the non-foils unless you get them as throw-ins for practically free.

Spellskite

The little anti-Twin that could has slowly climbed higher and higher these past few years, and as its increasing utility in Modern grows, the number of existing copies stays the same. If Gitaxian Probe manages to see a reprint, ‘Skite will almost certainly be in the same boat. I don’t think there’s enough potential left in the Phyrexian mana magnet to warrant holding onto copies if you’re not actively sleeving it up and sending it into battle, so I recommend unloading extra copies while you have the chance. Channel Fireball is offering $15 cash for copies while I’m writing this article, which seems like a darn good deal to me. If ‘Skite is shown to be in Modern Masters this year, I can’t see it staying above $10, maybe even $5 depending on the print run.

Angels on the Battlefield

Last, but certainly not least on the pricing spectrum, I want to talk about the candidates for the upcoming From the Vault: Angels. While the product doesn’t come out until later this summer, there are a couple of cards that I’m still wary about holding due to the fact that they could be in the FTV or MMA. There’s very little to be gained on either of these cards, and I have multiple copies of each on TCGplayer right now, to put my money where my mouth is.

Avacyn, Angel of Hope

This card is approaching $40 through casual appeal alone. It’s fine in EDH, sure, but other than that? Pure. Casual. 78-card mono-angel-tribal land. That’s where this card sees play. I don’t think Wizards wants its Legendary Mega-Mythic Super 8/8 Angels™ to be $40, at least not just a few years after being printed. I’m going to sound like a broken record at this point, but if you’re not using them; sell them now.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence

Although Linvala sees a tiny bit of Modern play as a one-of to shut off value-based creature strategies, she sees even less play now that Pod got the axe. A prime target for either of the products we’ve been talking about in this article, Linvala’s price stagnated at $50 for the entire year of 2014, before starting to creep down, presumably because of the FTV: Angels announcement. She’s $42 right now, but I would try and unload her before anything else happens.

End Step

Anyone else have a list of hot potatoes that they’re trying to get rid of? How about those Zendikar fetchlands? There’s been a decent amount of controversy as to how “obvious” it would be if they slammed the enemy fetches into Battle for Zendikar this fall, but I’m on the fence myself. I’m still definitely selling off all of my extra Misties, Mesas, and Tarns at the moment, just in case.

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