By: Jared Yost

Fate Reforged spoilers have been released in full and this set is poised to make its impact on Standard. Instead of writing a detailed analysis of individual cards right away, I am going to give you my first impression of the set at this point based on comments I’ve seen around the web and my own thoughts.  I’m going to keep the focus on discussing potential trends of cards from Khans of Tarkir, Theros Block, and M15, since Fate Reforged prices are mainly driven by hype at this point. Card by card analysis will come later this week from my fellow MTGPrice writers. If they leave out the uncommons and commons I can cover them later just like I did for Khans of Tarkir.

Manifest

Manifest is this set’s most unique keyword and it has brought something to the game that we haven’t seen before. I’ve heard plenty of dissenting voices saying that Manifest will not be that relevant but it is interesting enough to have potential. Whether or not it pans out remains to be seen, however some there some cards trending due to the revelation of Manifest.

Trail of Mystery – Several Magic financiers have noticed that Manifest has caused this card to become the most sought after trade on Puca Trade. Retail tells a different story, where the card hasn’t moved from its current price of $0.25 per copy. This is bulk rare status and can easily be negotiated as such in a trade. Trail of Mystery is definitely something to keep our eyes on as Standard adopts to Manifest. Even if it doesn’t turn out to be any good, casual players still seem to be getting behind the card due to its interaction with Manifest and I think the card has a chance of hitting $0.75 or more over the next month just due to this demand alone.

Hooded Hydra – Hooded Hydra has already jumped from $1.25 to $2.50 TCG Median. MTGPrice puts the current price of Hydra around $2 average. This tells me that casual players are targeting the Hydra in the hopes that they can create a Manifest deck that works well with the Hydra’s morph ability of putting five +1/+1 counters on itself when it becomes unmorphed. I admit, I get the feeling that there could be something to this in Standard. Yes, you have to jump through some hoops to get a decent return on this Manifest investment, but Fate Reforged is giving us Whisperwood Elemental.

I’m not saying that this card is the next Thragtusk, Huntmaster of the Fells, or Master of the Wild Hunt – there are some key differences here that make Whisperwood Elemental slightly worse. It has a higher mana cost without immediate impact by itself. If this is your only creature and your opponent has removal, you wasted turn five which is a critical turn in a format like Standard. It also has a higher color commitment since it requires two green to cast. This could limit it to only being found in fewer strategies that heavily focus on green.

On the plus side, Whisperwood Elemental combines the effects of Master of the Wild Hunt with Voice of Resurgence for all your other creatures in a tidy, neat package. Being 4/4 also helps it dodge many of the different types of removal in the format. I expect some pros to brew with Whisperwood Elemental, and if Hooded Hydra shows up in that deck somehow you can expect upward trends in the Hydra’s price over the coming weeks.

Finally, Master of Pearls is another card that gets much better with the Manifest mechanic and is trending right now on Puca Trade. How this card might fit into Manifest is hard to tell, since it appears on the surface to be an aggro creature, however I think it also could fit into a midrange deck if the synergy is powerful enough to pump all of your dudes for a game ending strike. For bulk, I don’t think there is much risk in picking up a playset.

Black / White Warriors Gets Support

A slightly more subtle trend that was also put into Fate Reforged is a warrior theme. Cards like Battle Brawler, Merciless Executioner, Mardu Shadowspear, Mardu Strike Leader, Mardu Woe-Reaper, and especially Brutal Hordechief all provide tools to make Warriors an archetype.

Currently existing cards that fit into this strategy include:

• Bloodsoaked Champion – Even though this was included in the Khans evet deck, this card probably has the best chance of being included in a warriors deck. Current sitting at around $1.50 TCG Median and $1.30 MTGPrice fair trade value, I don’t think you can go wrong with picking up your playset if the B/W Warriors strategy interests you.
• Athreos, God of Passage – Definitely a much pricier card to pick up, since this card is from a third set and getting harder to find. However, it has the chance of spiking out of nowhere if B/W Warriors becomes a mainstay after Fate Reforged is released. This is the only other god besides Pharika that costs three mana to play, and if the devotion count is reached with Athreos then it becomes and indestructible beat stick. The recursion choice for creatures with Athreos is also important since many of the creatures being played will be dying and possibly coming back if your opponent doesn’t pay the three life per creature.
• Chief of the Edge / Chief of the Scale – These picks might be stretching it, but they do seem pretty strong in an aggro deck of this type.
• Herald of Torment – Definitely a strong Bestow curve topper, though we haven’t seen Herald do so well in a field full of midrange. A strong aggro strategy could make this card shine. Herald is currently less than $1 right now, so buy in wise it doesn’t take much to pick up a playset.
• Dictate of Heliod – This is a strong pump effect that can come out of nowhere in the late game to help finish your opponent off. While current $0.42 fair trade on MTGPrice, retail you can find it much lower if you look around.
• Caves of Koilos – Currently sitting around $2.40 fair trade value, this land will be very important for fixing during those crucial early turns when you need to cast your spells on curve. Mana Confluence also fits into this category as well, however that land is currently sitting around $13 and won’t be going up much more even if a B/W Warriors deck is created. Caves, like Battlefield Forge and Llanowar Wastes, has a chance of going to $5 and beyond with a high finish from a warriors build.

These are just a few of the cards identified by others and myself as potential targets for inclusion in a warriors deck. Though the deck might not pan out, as the currently existing midrange strategies tend to blow aggro out of the water, similar to Manifest there could be some hype around the cards that show up in decks that do well the first few weekends that Fate Reforged is legal.

R/G Midrange Gets Support

Cards that potentially fit into existing R/G midrange strategies include Shaman of the Great Hunt and Shamanic Revelation.

R/G Midrange is a fine deck already, but having cards that enable card advantage and occasionally will enable life gain is something that can’t be overlooked. Take note that Shamanic Revelation is the buy-a-box promo from the set and that Shaman of the Great Hunt is quite an overpowered mythic if you can get it to stick for a few turns.

Cards that go well in these strategies include:

• Xenagos, the Reveler – Xenagos spiked earlier in the Standard season yet has gone down to only $6.25 fair trade price and TCG Median. Xenagos adds some punch to these strategies and could see a price uptick.
• Crater’s Claws – Could these new tools finally take Crater’s Claws to $2 and beyond? It is currently used as a finisher in R/G Midrange and might be played more if the deck is featured in a high level match at Pro Tour Fate Reforged.
• Ashcloud Phoenix – In addition to potential Manifest shenanigans, this card will continue to be in the R/G Midrange strategies as well. Appearances in both decks could bolster the card’s price.
• Rattleclaw Mystic – Very cheap price right now for a mana dork that provides Temur color fixing plus a Morph bonus. Again, Manifest possibilities aside, it is still a great card in its own right. I feel that $1.50 is very cheap for Rattleclaw right now and that it will be going up in price over the year.

 U/B Control Gets Support

Cards that add to U/B Control’s repertoire include Crux of Fate, Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, and Silumgar, the Drifting Death.

The currently existing card to watch out for in U/B Control include Dig Through Time, Pearl Lake Ancient, and Perilous Vault. Another card with possibilities is Prognostic Sphinx if U/B Control shifts towards selecting it as their finisher. Though most would argue that Pearl Lake Ancient is superior, the metagame could shift in another direction and make the Sphinx shine instead however unlikely that may seem right now.

Last Thoughts

I’m no professional deck builder but I’m starting to see how the pieces of the puzzle might fit together. Depending on what type of Standard strategies start dominating after Fate Reforged is released could spell different price trajectories for different cards. If a whole new archetype spawns and is good, like the B/W Warriors deck that seems to be taking form through the collective Magic mind on the internet, then a whole slew of card prices may be affected. Even just slight modifications to existing archetypes could help other cards see a small bump in price, or even make other cards that were on the fence change in price one way or the other depending on if they make the cut or not in Fate Reforged Standard.

What cards do you foresee making an impact on Standard from Fate Reforged? What cards from other Standard sets do you see as important role players in the new Standard format?

One question that I didn’t address was if any Fate Reforged cards are eternal playable. Do you think any cards are eternal playable that should be discussed further?

Tune in later this week for in depth coverage of specific Fate Reforged cards and what their future price may hold.

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MTGStocks completed a great favor for the community when it released the list of 2014’s biggest risers and decliners of the year on January 1st. Starting with a request from Corbin, these two lists were soon noticed by myself and others for the valuable input they can provide to the community.

Rising to the Top

The first insightful observation came from James Chillcott, who noticed that eighteen cards out of the top twenty risers of the year all started at less than $1 in value on January 1st 2014. To give examples from the risers list, this means that if you bought in on cards like Choke, Stoke the Flames, Forked Bolt, and Orzhov Pontiff in January of 2014 you would have made out incredibly well if you held onto them until now.

Of course, there is a significant danger in pointing this out. Many of the cards that made the top gainers list were either uncommons or came from pre-constructed sets. In other words, it would be very risky to pursue cards based on the uncommon rarity characteristic in hopes of seeing them receive humungous gains like the data shows. We can actually relate these gains to penny stocks. Sure, penny stocks regularly see the gains that cards like Fatestitcher can reach. I’ve even seen some penny stocks reach heights of 10,000%+ gains. Does this mean that it wasn’t risky to go after it? Of course not! Penny stocks are some of the most volatile assets on the market and I would argue that many gainers of the year fall into this category. Look at how many of them are uncommons or were printed in a pre-con or other supplementary product.

Fatestitcher (U)

Forked Bolt (U)

Choke (U) (made the top twenty twice, had two printings)

Blackmail (U) (made the top twenty twice, had two printings)

Squelch (U)

Flames of the Blood Hand (U)

Monastery Swiftspear (U)

Stoke the Flames (U)

Battlefield Forge (R) (more than one printing, and this card actually made the list twice due to becoming Standard legal and having all the printings rise due to the demand from Standard)

Reef Worm (R) (C14 mass printing)

The rest, which only have one printing so far and not in a supplemental product:

Waves of Aggression (R)

Stony Silence (R)

Orzhov Pontiff (R)

Porphyry Nodes (R)

Norin the Wary (R)

Phyrexian Tyranny (R)

*Onakke Catacomb (S) – One interesting “card” that made the top twenty that surprised me was Onakke Catacomb, a planechase Plane card that is only used in the casual format planechase. Yes folks, these cards have value too! If you happened to purchase any of the past planechase sets I would recommend busting out the oversize cards to check them for value. You never know which ones might be worth several dollars these days.

OK, so in reality only six of the top twenty cards that made the list only had one printing, weren’t an uncommon, and weren’t printed in a pre-con. One interesting trend is that none of the cards are mythic rare – this means that mythic rares as a whole are much more stable price wise than rares and uncommons even if the mythic rare turns into a bulk mythic. Another trend amongst these remaining six cards is that they are all from out of print sets.

Let’s take a look at the data another way. Sorting the risers list by highest price rather percentage change tells a different story. The top twenty gainers pricewise from 2014 are as follows:

Card	Set	Dec 31st	Jan 1st	Change
Chains of Mephistopheles (R)	Legends	$348.49	$194.00	79.60%
Volcanic Island (R)	Revised Edition	$265.99	$125.99	111.10%
Tropical Island (R)	Revised Edition	$189.56	$107.10	77.00%
Invoke Prejudice (R)	Legends	$134.97	$54.97	145.50%
Noble Hierarch (R)	Conflux	$66.44	$27.79	139.10%
Cryptic Command (R)	Modern Masters	$54.01	$24.45	120.90%
Cryptic Command (R)	Lorwyn	$52.24	$25.74	103.00%
In the Eye of Chaos (R)	Legends	$49.99	$26.00	92.30%
Dark Depths (R)	Coldsnap	$47.49	$25.99	82.70%
Bitterblossom (R)	Morningtide	$39.20	$18.97	106.60%
Reset (U)	Legends	$34.13	$13.30	156.60%
Twilight Mire (R)	Eventide	$30.73	$15.62	96.70%
Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite (M)	New Phyrexia	$27.51	$14.78	86.10%
Metalworker (R)	Urza’s Destiny	$27.24	$11.77	131.40%
Leyline of Sanctity (R)	Magic 2011 (M11)	$24.94	$11.89	109.80%
Blood Moon (R)	The Dark	$24.60	$12.59	95.40%
Hurkyl’s Recall (R)	Antiquities	$23.27	$12.23	90.30%
Azusa, Lost but Seeking (R)	Champions of Kamigawa	$22.53	$12.49	80.40%
Ensnaring Bridge (R)	7th Edition	$19.98	$8.99	122.20%
Blood Moon (R)	Modern Masters	$19.95	$7.13	179.80%

The blue chip list, as David Schumann would say, provides insight into the most expensive cards that have had the largest gain this year. Revised dual lands fall into this list, but we also have some hard-to-find Legends cards that have shown up in addition to Modern, Commander, and Legacy staples. What surprises me most is the percentage gain that each of the cards has seen – all of the cards on the list gained at least 77% or more! The average amount that a card on this list gained was 110%!! Overall, this list tells me that Modern as whole has gotten very popular over the course of 2014 but also that the casual market, as always, reaches out with their invisible hands as well to create even higher prices for cards like Invoke Prejudice and In the Eye of Chaos.

Fall from Grace

We can’t talk about winners without also discussing who the biggest losers of 2014 were. Going back to the MTGStocks page, the biggest decliners of 2014 as you might guess were most likely to be a Standard card. In fact, out of the top twenty there were sixteen cards that were just previously Standard legal or have become Standard legal in 2014. The only four cards to buck this trend were:

Misdirection

Unexpectedly Absent

Stifle

Muzzio, Visionary Architect

Each of these cards fell at least -71% from their highest historical price of 2014. Strangely enough, two of those cards are Legacy playable and have been played in some of the top tier Legacy decks of 2014.

My theory for why this happened is twofold. Firstly, three of the cards were from Conspiracy which was a set released just last year. This means that stores had pre-order and release prices that in no way reflected the actual demand of the card. Once the initial “gotta have it NOW!!!” demand was depleted the stores had to lower the price to meet the actual market demand. Unfortunately, due to the somewhat large print run of Conspiracy and the fact that the cards were not Standard legal this meant that the price had to be considerably lowered from initial expectations of what stores thought the price should be.

Secondly, the cards Misdirection and Stifle were both reprints of Legacy-only cards, which will pretty much always significantly reduce the current price of a card. I’m not surprised that they fell so much but the surprisingly deep fall of Misdirection in particular is quite shocking. We might look to the sage advice of buy low and sell later once the price has risen higher. The current $3 for Conspiracy Misdirection could change easily edge upward as time goes on since its Mercadian Masques counterpart is around $10.

Speaking of buy low and sell high, the blue chip cards are the ones I would be most particular about watching for buying in at a lower price. Let’s see which cards by highest price have dropped considerably during 2014.

Card	Set	Dec 31st	Jan 1st	Change
Wasteland (P)	Magic Player Rewards	$300.54	$398.00	-24.50%
Polluted Delta (R)	Onslaught	$46.19	$88.03	-47.50%
Flooded Strand (R)	Onslaught	$41.16	$69.98	-41.20%
Misty Rainforest (R)	Zendikar	$37.99	$52.04	-27.00%
Windswept Heath (R)	Onslaught	$29.29	$42.99	-31.90%
Bloodstained Mire (R)	Onslaught	$26.75	$37.94	-29.50%
Wooded Foothills (R)	Onslaught	$26.20	$42.25	-38.00%
Intuition (R)	Tempest	$24.14	$30.99	-22.10%
Marsh Flats (R)	Zendikar	$24.00	$33.04	-27.40%
Dack Fayden (M)	Conspiracy	$22.00	$59.99	-63.30%
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes (M)	Journey into Nyx	$18.29	$29.98	-39.00%
True-Name Nemesis (R)	Commander 2013	$17.81	$42.79	-58.40%
Mutavault (R)	Morningtide	$17.57	$34.99	-49.80%
Goblin Piledriver (R)	Onslaught	$17.32	$21.73	-20.30%
Vindicate (R)	Apocalypse	$17.09	$23.03	-25.80%
Voice of Resurgence (M)	Dragon’s Maze	$16.53	$30.40	-45.60%
Polluted Delta (R)	Khans of Tarkir	$15.99	$23.66	-32.40%
Exploration (R)	Urza’s Saga	$14.98	$23.75	-36.90%
Elspeth, Knight-Errant (M)	Modern Masters	$14.95	$19.98	-25.20%

As you probably surmised, the Onslaught fetchlands were going to be on this list due to their recent reprinting in Khans. Thankfully, Khans has also negatively affected the prices of the Zendikar fetches as well since players can easily replace a Zendikar fetch with a Khans fetch in a pinch. This means that fewer Zendikar fetches are needed in Modern these days, so therefore lower prices on the enemy fetches too.

The most expensive card that has dropped considerably in price is the Player Rewards Wasteland, which has dropped $100 during 2014. If you’re in the market for foil Wasteland, this could be the deal that you’ve been waiting for.

In terms of undervalued cards, I would put Voice of Resurgence as undervalued as well as Dack Fayden and Mutavault. I think these three cards, either due to casual or tournament demand, are going to start rising in price over this year and would be surprised if they continued to further decrease in price (unless they are reprinted of course, and then a drop in price is definitely not surprising).

Trends Seen in 2014

In terms of overall trends for cards in 2014, we can see that the top risers percentage wise were the penny stocks that happened to get noticed and explode in price – seemingly overnight. Price memory is a powerful force, since many of the cards in this category really haven’t put up too many results and yet still continue to demand a higher price going into 2015. I would stay away from almost all these cards, as they could all be reprinted again at some point and have already spiked.

Looking at the blue chip gainers, we see that many are reserve list cards that have become noticed and picked up by casuals and tournament players alike. However, we also need to be cautious with this list too since cards like Noble Hierarch and Twilight Mire are included among their number – cards that we know are going to be reprinted eventually and that it is only a matter of time before they drop in price. Like any investment, please do your research even on these blue chip cards to determine if they are ones you should be picking up for value.

Lastly, even the losers have lessons to teach us. What I have gleaned from them are that Standard staples drop the absolute hardest upon rotation and after they are forgotten about (Blood Baron of Vizkopa being the primary example here) so it is best to get rid of these cards when they have peaked in price during the Standard season. Also, Legacy-only staples that are reprinted will drop precipitously from a reprint, so watch for any Legacy reprints to get the most value out of your currently owned Legacy stuff. Finally, be aware that the reprinting of a cycle of previously valuable lands can have drastic effects on the other colors even if those color pairs aren’t reprinted right away.

Not to say that there isn’t potential in the losers. Cards that are otherwise popular can sometimes drop in price simply due to a current overabundance of them in the market. Once they’ve circulated for a while, even after declining the price can start to rise again if the card generates significant tournament and/or casual demand.

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