Thinking About Modern Masters II

By: Jared Yost

For the Modern fans among us, I feel like it’s time to give some serious thought to the upcoming Modern Masters II now that Khans has been out for a few months. Gathering inspiration from some of the awesome deck’s I’ve been seeing last week at the Magic World Championships, I’ve decided to see what Modern looks like now that Khans has been in the format for several months. Knowing where the format is heading will be important in determining what cards have the highest chance of being in MM2.

Modern Masters Two will not only reduce prices, thereby allowing newer players to more easily enter the format, but it will also provide us with opportunities for picking up previously expensive casual and Commander cards that just happened to be included in the set because someone at Wizards R&D really liked them. Thinking about them now will give us plenty of time to consider whether or not we would like to trade them or buylist them for other potential value cards.

Current Day Values

Let’s see what the most current price swings for cards over the last week have been in Modern according to MTGPrice’s 50 Biggest Gainers of the Week.

Card Name
Set
Price
Gain
Chalice of the Void
Modern Masters
$10.95
4.41
Thoughtseize
Lorwyn
$36.10
3.6
Chalice of the Void
Mirrodin
$9.46
1.98
Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Born of the Gods
$30.70
1.81
Sliver Legion
Future Sight
$49.89
1.65
Tarmogoyf
Modern Masters
$196.95
0.96
Fatestitcher
Shards of Alara
$1.25
0.95
Arid Mesa
Zendikar
$31.26
0.93
Liliana of the Veil
Innistrad
$57.51
0.88
Phyrexian Obliterator
New Phyrexia
$29.54
0.77
Eldrazi Monument
Zendikar
$9.54
0.69
Infernal Tutor
Dissension
$13.83
0.67
Minamo, School at Water's Edge
Champions of Kamigawa
$11.36
0.64
Dark Confidant
Modern Masters
$86.82
0.63
Flooded Strand
Khans of Tarkir
$17.58
0.59
Sorin Markov
Zendikar
$15.67
0.58
Quicksilver Amulet
M12
$7.74
0.57
Phantasmal Image
M12
$7.85
0.56
Dark Confidant
Ravnica
$85.15
0.55
Rhys the Redeemed
Shadowmoor
$17.54
0.55
AEther Vial
Darksteel
$23.36
0.54
Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
Avacyn Restored
$14.02
0.53
Whip of Erebos
Theros
$3.02
0.53
Painter's Servant
Shadowmoor
$10.49
0.51
Glimpse of Nature
Champions of Kamigawa
$29.39
0.5
Sorin Markov
M12
$14.58
0.47
Tezzeret the Seeker
Shards of Alara
$14.82
0.47
Furyborn Hellkite
M12
$2.99
0.46
Cascade Bluffs
Eventide
$24.39
0.46
Extraplanar Lens
Mirrodin
$10.00
0.44
Smash to Smithereens
Shadowmoor
$4.18
0.43
Mox Opal
Scars of Mirrodin
$56.30
0.42
Akroma's Memorial
M13
$9.45
0.41
Ensnaring Bridge
8th Edition
$21.05
0.41
Glimpse the Unthinkable
Ravnica
$25.02
0.41
Scalding Tarn
Zendikar
$48.56
0.41
Sword of Fire and Ice
Darksteel
$40.78
0.41
Deathbringer Liege
Eventide
$12.35
0.4
Wooded Foothills
Khans of Tarkir
$11.81
0.4
Flooded Grove
Eventide
$23.43
0.4
Steam Vents
Guildpact
$15.79
0.39
Razorfoot Grifin
M10
$0.39
0.39
City of Brass
Modern Masters
$4.02
0.39
Hero of Iroas
Born of the Gods
$2.55
0.39
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Rise of the Eldrazi
$55.53
0.39
Elvish Piper
9th Edition
$8.14
0.38
Glen Elendra Archmage
Eventide
$6.75
0.38
Voidslime
Dissension
$7.68
0.38
Garruk Wildspeaker
Lorwyn
$9.25
0.37
Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
Journey Into Nyx
$19.77
0.36

Chalice of the Void is the clear winner. Treasure Cruise has arguably done the most damage in Modern than any other format. For now though, many players are fighting through all the TC decks with their cheap cantrips by maindecking or sideboarding Chalice of the Void. Chalice for one charge counter stops a large majority of the spells and will slow them down considerably.

I think the boat has passed on Chalice of the Void for now due to the recent spike. It has spiked to $15 TCG Median and will be sitting there for quite some time – at least until Treasure Cruise is banned. (maybe?)

Another notable high up on the list is Phyrexian Obliterator, which seems to still be hovering around the $30 threshold. It spiked to $30 back in January of this year and hasn’t moved since then. It is played in Modern but isn’t a staple of the format like Tarmogoyf or Dark Confidant. This leads me to believe that the majority of its demand comes from the casual crowd. Casuals love the effect of this horror which makes it seem like a good pickup. The price could easily spike again January of 2015 since it hasn’t moved for a year.

Now that we know which cards seem to be trending upwards in value, let’s take a look at the current metagame and most played cards.

Current Metagame and Most Played Cards

The MTGTop8 recorded metagame over the last two months includes the following: 

Aggro #
UR Aggro 72
Red Deck Wins 33
Affinity 25
Hatebear 13
Aura Hexproof 12
Zoo 11
Merfolk 8
Junk 8
RUG Aggro 5
Jund 3
Boremandos 2
Loam 2
Tokens 1
Other – Aggro 1
Control
UWx Midrange 12
UrzaTron 10
Valakut 6
Martyr Life 5
Blue Moon 5
UW Control 4
Gift Control 2
The Rock 1
Faeries 1
Other – Control 6
Combo
Birthing Pod 38
Scapeshift 25
Twin Exarch 16
Bloom Titan 7
Jeskai Ascendancy 7
UR Storm 5
Ad Nauseam 4
Infect 2
Living End 1
Instant Reanimator 1
Other – Combo 1

 

UR Aggro has become the most dominant deck in the format, representing 20% of the Top 8 appearances. UWx is still the most popular control deck and Birthing Pod is still the most popular combo deck through Khans.

Scapeshift has started outpacing Twin Exarch lists as a favorite combo choice since it is much harder to disrupt land drops than creatures in order to execute your instant-win combo. Jeskai Ascendency has become a successful deck in Modern but it is not quite as dominant as everyone thought it would become.

One deck that is falling out of favor is UrzaTron, due to the speed of the UR Aggro decks in the format. Martyr Life seems to be a deck that is taking its place since gaining a huge amount of life in addition will help outpace all of the UR and Burn decks floating around.

Another deck falling out of favor is Living End. With only one Top 8 placement in the last two months, it appears that Living End is falling out of favor for the faster combo decks.

What Does It All Mean?

After reviewing both MTGPrice’s 50 Biggest Gainers of the Week and the MTG Top 8 results over the last two months, I would like to make some observations about several of the cards identified in the first section that I think have a surprising price. In addition, I would like to address the more expensive parts of the decks in the MTG Top 8 results that did not appear in the recently trending cards. My thoughts pertain to the non-foil version of the card for all cases. 

Card MM2 Possible Inclusion? Reasoning Price Thoughts
Chalice of the Void No Reprint in first MM Price is inflated due to Treasure Cruise metagame shift. A banning of TC will make Chalice drop again. If you didn’t get in before the spike, then you missed the boat for profit. Only pickup now if you plan on playing Modern in the near future.
Phyrexian Obliterator Yes Casual favorite, Some Modern play Expensive, but could spike again before MM2. Pick up your copies before January if you plan on playing with Obliterator in the near future – otherwise wait to see if it is in MM2.
Arid Mesa (and other ZEN fetchlands) Yes Modern staple, no reprint yet. The prices of the ZEN fetches have dropped considerably upon Khans fetches being released. They will drop even more if a MM2 reprint happens. I would wait on picking up ZEN fetches unless you need them right away.
Aether Vial No Reprint in first MM Aether Vial seems to be trending upwards yet does receive a reprint every now and then. I think Vial will continue to trend upwards until the next reprint, whenever that may come.
Cascade Bluffs (and other SHM filter lands) No As a set of ten two-color filter lands, this cycle would be better off reprinted across another block like the shocklands were reprinted in RTR block. Prices for these lands are waaaaay overinflated. Once these are reprinted they are going to bottom out hard. I would not pick up copies of these at all unless you need them for a deck.
Smash to Smithereens Yes Common, easy to include and is used heavily in Modern against affinity and other artifact based decks. Price will drop hard once the card is reprinted and it doesn’t have much room to move up. Get rid of any extra copies you have.
Mox Opal Yes Affinity staple. Price will drop, but not considerably. Still be wary of holding onto Mox Opals through next summer.
Ensnaring Bridge Yes Hard to find. Played in Commander, Modern, and Legacy. Casuals also love this card. Price will drop with a reprint. However, in the long run the price will go up over time until the next reprint. Wait for the bottom and then pick them up.
Steam Vents (and other RTR / GTC shocklands) No Just reprinted in recent block. Wizards even added extras to the market by including them in Dragon’s Maze. Pick up shocklands now before their price starts creeping back up again once they become harder to find. I would target blue lands especially.
Minamo, School at Water’s Edge No Kamigawa legendary lands are sometimes seen in Modern (Eiganjo is one example) but are played a ton in Commander. I’d expect these lands in a Commander product. Not something I would look to pick up. The card is not going to $20+ anytime soon and if reprinted next year will drop like a rock.
Sorin Markov No Two printings already, mainly just a casual card. Sorin is at $15 and climbing. I don’t think he will be reprinted in MM2 but could definitely be reprinted in a Commander or casual supplementary product.
Quicksilver Amulet No Two printings already, mainly just a casual card. Similar to Sorin, could easily be put in a supplementary product and is not doubling up any time soon.
Rhys the Redeemed Yes Only one printing and lots of casual love. $18 is very high for Rhys. He is worth almost as much as Doubling Season, which is saying something. The price is propped up by scarcity alone. One reprint will crash it.
Extraplanar Lens Yes Only one printing and lots of casual love. I would expect Wizards to skip EL over other cards for MM2 but this could be a last minute include since they did not include it in the recent C14 decks. Price will crash if a reprint happens.
Akroma’s Memorial No Two printings already, mainly a casual card. Akroma’s Memorial will keep rising over time until the next reprint. I don’t think this reprint will be in MM2.
Glimpse the Unthinkable Yes Popular casual card with some Modern appeal for a mill deck. Only one printing. Glimpse is a card that a ton of players love that has yet to see a reprint. MM2 is a great place for it. Price will crash when this happens since it is mainly just a casual card.
Deathbringer Liege No Popular casual card yet Wizards has found ways outside of MM sets to reprint these (C13, Planechase 2012, etc.) Lords are popular casual cards but I don’t see this one being printed in a MM set for the reasons I stated. The price will go up over time for this liege without a reprint, though I do expect a commander release to contain this or another liege next year.
Elvish Piper No Six reprints already. Can find another place outside MM set. Price will continue to go up until the next reprint. Last reprint was 10th edition, so it has been quite a while since Piper has had a reprint. Maybe the next commander set?
Voidslime Yes Only one regular reprinting (Champs was full art). Like Glimpse the Unthinkable its a popular casual card, even if not really played in Modern. I don’t think this card has much room to grow. Only casually popular. If included in Modern Masters the price will drop.
Young PyromancerSerum VisionsGitaxian Probe

Forked Bolt

Inquisition of Kozilek

Remand

Spell Pierce

Yes I’m including all these cards in the same category because I feel that they are uncommons and commons that could easily get reprinted. They are overvalued in price due to being scarce. Though not all of these uncommons / commons could be printed, I would expect a large majority of them to be on the list for MM2. I will be getting rid of any extra copies of these I have before next summer (except maybe Young Pyromancer because that is one hot uncommon!).
Goblin Guide Yes Hugely popular card, both casually and in Modern. Guide will drop significantly if printed in MM2. Will continue to increase in price until reprint is announced.
Eidolon of the Great Revel No Standard legal card, no reason. They could still include Eidolon in an event deck or other supplementary product. The price will continue to go up slowly until then.
Noble Hierarch Yes Very costly pricewise. Important piece of mana fixing and tempo in Modern and Legacy. High probability of being in MM2. Hierarch doesn’t have much room to grow, only because most are speculating a reprint in MM2. I would trade away any extra copies you have because the risk is far greater holding.
Daybreak CoronetAven Mindcensor Yes Random future sight rare with one printing that is amazing in Modern. Commander also likes this card. Like Hierarch, Daybreak Coronet would not be worth nearly as much if not for being in an older, less printed set. Aven Mindcensor is in the same camp.
Geist of Saint Traft Yes Popular casual, Commander, and Modern card. I think Geist has a fair chance of being reprinted as a mythic in MM2, especially if Treasure Cruise is not banned. Very powerful, efficient beater.
Snapcaster Mage Yes Multi-format all star with only one printing. Like Goyf and Bob, Snappy will probably be a mythic in MM2 to not kill the price. Should stabilize Snapcaster if this happens.
Restoration Angel Yes Efficient Modern beater, casual fan favorite being an Angel. Resto-Angel has a decent chance of being in MM2. If not MM2, then certainly a commander product in the future.
Karn Liberated
Grove of the Burnwillows
Yes Karn is way pricy for a planeswalker, only due to being in NPH. Grove is similarly expensive though played in more than one Modern deck. Both need another reprint to reduce prices. Both cards will continue to increase in price, but not substantially. Again, risk is way too high to hold extra copies.
Mythic Eldrazi (Emrakul, Kozilek, Ulamog) Yes? MM2 is a great place for the Eldrazi as a mythic rare cycle. Also, they are casual favorites like many cards on this list. Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Ranger of EosSerra Ascendant Yes Hard to find, only one printing. Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Linvala, Keeper of Silence Yes Hard to find, only one printing. Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Birthing Pod Yes Modern staple Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Splinter Twin Yes Modern staple Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.
Azusa, Lost but Seeking Yes Hard to find, only one printing. Slowly going up, but reprint fear will keep prices stabilized for some time.

 

These are my brief thoughts on various cards for inclusion in MM2. Do you think I’ve missed anything important for this list? What curveballs do you think Wizards will throw into MM2? (Remember Ryusei, the Falling Star and other CHK dragon’s in the first MM? Eww.) What types of mechanic themes do you think the set will have?

Regardless of how my predictions turn out, I think that Modern Masters II will be a fun set!


 

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Bad Owners, Bad Policies

By: Cliff Daigle

Let me give you a situation that you might not remember having been in.

You’ve been playing Magic for a few weeks. Maybe a friend taught you, maybe you played Duels of the Planeswalkers, maybe you found an intro deck and just liked the art. You feel ready to head to your local game store and you head there, being told that you can rule at FNM, or something to that extent.

I want to share with you some things to watch out for, as a new or experienced player. These are financial pitfalls that can ruin your experience or turn you off from that store for good.

Rare Redrafting

There is no situation that will sour me faster on a store than the practice of collecting the rares after the last round of the draft and then having first place in the draft choose a card. I get what it’s for: a reward for having won, your choice of the cards that were opened. Instead of the best cards in three packs, you’re looking at the best of 24 packs. Seems like a great idea, right? It’s even good training for a high-level draft, where you’re choosing card quality over card value. 

If you and a group of friends want to redraft the rares, that’s pretty awesome. You’re playing for something of value without needing to have extra packs. If this is how you and seven friends want to draft three times out of two boxes, more power to you.

At the store level, though, there are real problems with a rare redraft. One, it feels terrible to open a sweet card and know that you’re not going to be able to keep it. Imagine that you’ve had a bad two packs of a draft. You misread signals, you opened poorly, someone in front of you changed colors, etc. It happens to all of us. Then in pack 3 of Khans, there it is, a foil fetchland. Congratulations! You view tonight as a win.

With a redraft, though, there is little chance that you’re going to hang on to that foil. Unless you do something sneaky, like take it out of circulation. Draft the card, hide it in a deck box, and don’t tell anyone. They’ll notice at the end of the draft that something is wrong, and that’s the second issue with redrafting: I’ve rarely seen it work where 8 players put up 24 rares. With the foil fetch example, what’s to stop me from swapping in a Clever Impersonator out of my binder once the time comes?

It’s especially egregious to have a redraft in place of prize packs. Stores get excellent prices on their packs, about half retail price for the most part. Stores that charge you $12 to draft and give a redraft as the prize are shorting you on value and experience.

Shoddy buylisting/credit

True story: I went to a game store six months ago and was seeking to sell a Gaea’s Cradle. It had a retail price of about $120 then. I went into the store, which I had drafted at before, and they had a tablet set up displaying their buylist. I could browse what prices they gave without troubling a clerk. I picked out a few things and told the clerk I wanted cash, not credit.

“The price on there is the credit price. We give half of that credit if you want cash.” So I got offered $35 cash on a Gaea’s Cradle.

Needless to say, I haven’t been back there.

Stay away from stores that are trying to make too much money off of individual transactions. It’s just bad business and it’s going to leave you feeling angry that you were taken advantage of in such a way. Not getting full retail for your cards is a part of the game, but getting dimes on the dollar is just too much.

Cheap play area

There are some remarkably awful places to play Magic. I’ve been in stores where neither side of a table had room to get in and out, but instead each player had to pull the table to them, in order to let someone else out. I’ve done a draft in a store that had room for exactly eight players, and anyone extra was going to play outside. Heaven help me, I’ve played PTQs in the cheapest, flimsiest of IKEA chairs.

My wife wins, though. She visited her parents in upstate New York, and for fun, went to an FNM draft. This place, in October, had drafts occurring in an open garage, around a high table with no chairs. She was the only one who brought sleeves!

If you encounter a store that can’t bother to have a place to let you play, don’t give them your money.

On a related note: Don’t stay one minute if anyone ever talks to you about table fees.

Arbitrary store owners/employees

This is less of an issue than it used to be, I hope. I learned to play at stores that tolerated Magic, but who felt in their heart of hearts that everything should be comics or miniatures. I knew, for a fact, that Magic made them more money but they didn’t like having to learn a new game or depend on something they didn’t understand.

So they didn’t bother.

This would lead to store owners who didn’t care, or worse, let some constantly-present customer take over. I know the era of ‘I don’t work here, but I get treated like I do’ isn’t over and that’s a shame, because that can be bad for business.

Perhaps the worst is when a buddy of the owner decides he doesn’t have to play by any rules, and the owner allows it. That store won’t be around long and you should plan for their going-out-of-business sale.

Tolerating cheaters/bullies

If you’re a high-volume trader, seller, or speculator, you might do a lot of business with one store, building a relationship with them over time. This is usually beneficial for you, for them, and for the other players at the store who get access to more cards that they want.

Such things can sour, though, if there’s preferential treatment or awful behavior going on. If the guy who ‘runs’ the card case at a store decides he’s only going to play with Ice Age lands and no sleeves, and the owner does nothing, no one else will play!

Crazy Pricing

Finally, I want to bring up stores that don’t seem to know about the Internet. Sure, a brick-and-mortar store can have a small increase in price over a card’s price online, that’s part of the price you pay for getting the card immediately. If you need it fast, it’ll cost you more. (This is why Containment Priest was $50 on the GP New Jersey floor the morning of the event)

Some stores, though, never catch up. It’s understandable if they get bought out of a card before they found out about a card spiking (maybe they need to become ProTraders!) but I’ve been to more than a few stores that bought at the new price, and then tried to sell it at an even higher price!

Buying singles is generally the way to go. Buying packs and hoping to crack the value is usually not going to give you a return on your investment. Singles, though, are only worth it if the stores aren’t trying to make up for their mistake when buying.

I hope you found some of these tips helpful when you’re choosing a store to play at.

And if you have some ‘awful store’ stories, I’d love to hear them, in the comments or tweet me @WordOfCommander


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Potential Commander Spikes

By: Cliff Daigle

With Commander 2014 being a month old, it’s time to take a look at the five decks, and see if there’s something to be anticipated this time around. Last year, there was a series of spikes around cards that went well with Nekusar, the Mindrazer. Since that was a new legend who came with the chase card (True-Name Nemesis) I want to follow that lead.

Containment Priest is currently the priciest card, thanks to her spike during the Legacy GP. So what’s in the white deck and what might we make money on? There’s two themes: Equipment and Tokens.

On the equipment side, I like a few things: First, foil copies of Taj-Nar Swordsmith can be had for $1 or less. It’s much easier to recur a creature than to get back a sorcery in an all-white deck, though the Gift is a $3 uncommon that could go way up. Steelshaper Apprentice is slow, yes, unless the first equipment you tutor up is Lightning Greaves

Stoneforge Mystic is also good but she’s too expensive for a useful spec right now. She’s going to get reprinted before too long. Stonehewer Giant was just in Modern Masters and can be had for about $2, with foils going for between $7-12, depending on edition.

The token theme is harder to spot. My favorite two, though, are Twilight Drover (two printings, about $1) and Custodi Soulbinders from Conspiracy. Sure, you can have Geist-Honored Monk or others, but I like cards that offer a backup plan.

The red deck offers three valuable cards: Daretti, Scrap Savant, Wurmcoil Engine, and Dualcaster Mage. The legends of Feldon of the Third Path and Bosh, Iron Golem make is clear that this deck is all about artifacts coming and going from and to the graveyard. Kuldotha Forgemaster has already crept up a little in value, but what else might?

I like Precursor Golem to give me Golem tokens, Genesis Chamber, Myr Battlesphere, Myr Matrix, Myr Turbine for lots of Myr, Pentavus for value, and Urza’s Factory for the long games.

Summoning Station is the secret tech for this deck, though. Artifacts are cycling from play to the graveyard like crazy and you want to get some bonuses. I would also watch Darksteel Forge. Though there’s three printings of it, it’s an effect that is very good at keeping your things in play once you get them there.

The green deck is all about lands and Elves. I don’t think that an Elf deck has much room to grow, but a lot of the less-common elves got a new printing, like Priest of Titania. I think that Elvish Promenade and Jagged-Scar Archers are the ones to watch. They are Lorwyn uncommons, so there’s not that many out there by modern standards. The Duels promos are not a large enough amount to matter too much.

Titania as a legend offers some interesting designs. You want to sacrifice lands and get value. I think Life from the Loam is the biggest potential gainer from this build, and it’s had just enough reprinting that it could go up a couple of dollars. Crucible of Worlds won’t go up too much, but that’s gold for a deck built around sacrificing lands.

Other cards to watch: Dust Bowl, Constant Mists, Crop Rotation, Zuran Orb, Scapeshift, Rath’s Edge, Lotus Vale, Scorched Ruins, Petrified Field. These all sacrifice lands to gain benefit, which when Titania is out, gives you some 5/3 Elemental action too.

Also consider that Doubling Season will party like a rock star in this deck, as will Parallel Lives and other token-doublers like Parallel Evolution.

I also like Terminal Moraine and Myriad Landscape in this deck, but I don’t think those prices would grow very much.

In the blue deck, we have Teferi, Temporal Archmage and Stitcher Geralf. Those builds could go a lot of ways, but there’s a strong card-draw theme in the blue deck and so I have two suggestions: Jin-Gitaxias, Core Augur to maximize your card drawing and Psychosis Crawler.

The Crawler is so amazingly good in a lot of decks, but there are extra foil versions out there, since it was the foil included in one of the Mirrodin Besieged intro packs.

Finally, Ob Nixilis’s deck. Ghoulcaller Gisa offers a very straightforward ‘Zombie horde’ strategy, and Ob Nixilis offers a repeatable method for draining/gaining life. I would look out for the re-rise of the Exquisite Blood/Sanguine Bond combo with Ob Nixilis.

My favorite card to add to a Gisa deck would easily be Endless Ranks of the Dead. If Gisa gets you two Zombies, this adds a third. The growth chart gets really crazy from there up. Gempalm Polluter is good, and Gravecrawler might be the perfect card to sacrifice to Gisa. Also watch out for Mikaeus, the Unhallowed, as he enables a lot of shenanigans.

Shepherd of Rot is pretty amazing at what it does, and combined with Gutless Ghoul and some Gisa activations, you can do a lot of work. If Gisa makes a few tokens, the sky is the limit. Door of Destinies in a tribal deck, Obelisk of Urd or Coat of Arms if you just want to grow a horde. Stronghold Assassin is very strong, and in a multicolored deck, Deadapult is the best combination of name, ability, and flavor ever!

From this list, I’d say that Steelshaper’s Gift is the most likely to spike. I think Darksteel Forge won’t be far behind. I’ve tried to outline a range of options, though, so if you see these in someone’s binder at FNM, feel free to pick up a few spares.


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Accountability – A Seven Month Review

By: Jared Yost

Time to put my money where my mouth is. This is where you get to find out exactly what I’ve purchased, the amount I purchased, and at what price. I’m going back a whole seven months to show you which cards I’ve been picking up this year. At the end, we’ll see whether or not they worked out in my favor and what I’ve learn about my pickups.

My Therosian Manifesto

One thing I’ve really wanted to nail down when it comes to my forays into the Magic financial realm are goals. Yes, one of the most generic terms for success also applies here when trying to purchase Magic cards for value. At the beginning of the year my goals for enhancing my collection included the following:

  1. Focus on Foils Over Non-Foils

Why this goal? Because I’ve been burned in the past, and also very recently, on cards where I decided to go the non-foil route over the foil. Since my past mistakes are too numerous to list here, my most recent example of why I crafted this goal was because of Griselbrand. Guess who was announced this year as the GP Promo for the following year? That’s right, my boy Griselbrand who I had acquired during 2013 at $8 per copy. I had accumulated twelve copies by the time of this announcement. Let’s just say I was lucky to buylist them for the price I paid.

The only exceptions I allow myself to this rule are for Standard and reserve list picks. I tried to stick to this this goal as close as possible but didn’t adhere to it every time I picked up something.

Another reason I like foils is because they are especially good targets for Commander staples, which have proven to be good Magic financial gainers. A great example of this was when foil Chromatic Lanterns were everywhere and I was picking them up for $7.50 or cheaper. Now they’re $15 and rising as time goes on.

  1. Avoid the Booster Box / Booster Pack Money Hole

Booster boxes and packs are really fun to purchase though are a losing proposition in the long run. There are way too many bulk rares out there these days to make flipping boxes into a profit for guys like me that don’t own a store but want their collection to steadily rise in value. This is a lesson that took me way too long to learn. Now that I finally have, I try to avoid buying boxes and packs for pleasure.

  1. Choose Bulk Rares Carefully

When I first started experimenting with Magic finance I would pick up any bulk rare that I thought was cool, expecting it to eventually go up to the price that I thought it should be at. Several years later and I still have a box of failed specs that haven’t gone anywhere. Even worse, some have dropped considerably in price based on my whimsical logic. This was certainly the most expensive lesson for me to learn, even more so than buying random boxes and packs for “value”. At least packs sometimes produce cards people want that you can use to salvage some of your costs. Bulk rares can stick around for years without moving. It’s not technically a loss on paper because I haven’t gotten rid of them, yet I’ve come to realize that opportunity cost is a real thing. What I spent on bulk rares and questionable cards I could have put into staples that I knew were going to be fine in the long run. My most glaring example of this is I should have just picked up more shock lands rather than try to find “undervalued” RTR and GTC bulk rares and mythics.

Now I’ve made it a point to pick up higher cost format staples that are undervalued either due to being in Standard or having a recent reprint. Rare lands that provide mana fixing from Standard like Mana Confluence is a recent example of this.

Let’s See How I Did

Now that you know my goals for this year, I’ll provide you what I’ve purchased from now back until April 30th. The reason I picked this date to start is because I started formulating my goals mid-April and wanted to see the results of those goals from then on out.

Here’s the breakdown of purchases and the estimated date of the purchase. All buy prices were TCG Median.

# Card Set Buy Date Buy Price
1 Cabal Coffers Torment FOIL 10/28/2014 $19.48
12 Crater’s Claws Khans of Tarkir 10/24/2014 $0.99
1 Proteus Staff Mirrodin FOIL 10/24/2014 $7.23
3 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes Journey into Nyx 10/12/2014 $16.94
6 See the Unwritten Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $3.10
8 Pearl Lake Ancient Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $0.99
4 Jeskai Ascendancy Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $5.08
7 Altar of the Brood Khans of Tarkir 10/10/2014 $0.44
4 Shivan Reef M15 FOIL 10/2/2014 $9.88
19 Doomwake Giant Journey into Nyx 9/27/2014 $0.40
3 Elspeth, Sun’s Champion Theros 9/26/2014 $21.86
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor Khans of Tarkir 9/22/2014 $15.19
1 Metalworker Urza’s Destiny 9/12/2014 $12.06
1 Courser of Kruphix Born of the Gods 8/31/2014 $12.48
4 Congregation at Dawn Ravnica FOIL 8/20/2014 $2.00
3 Xenagos, the Reveler Theros FOIL 8/15/2014 $18.99
4 Master of Waves Theros 7/25/2014 $3.96
5 Mana Confluence Journey into Nyx 7/25/2014 $7.94
3 True-Name Nemesis C13 7/25/2014 $16.50
3 Hall of Triumph Journey FOIL 7/25/2014 $2.05
12 Anger of the Gods Theros 7/25/2014 $1.32
2 Dictate of Erebos Journey FOIL 7/25/2014 $7.33
1 Sliver Hivelord M15 FOIL 7/25/2014 $31.00
2 Hornet Queen M15 FOIL 7/25/2014 $4.35
1 Erebos, God of the Dead Theros FOIL 7/25/2014 $16.00
1 Exploration Conspiracy FOIL 7/25/2014 $39.99
8 Hero’s Downfall Theros 7/25/2014 $5.00
3 Swan Song Theros FOIL 4/30/2014 $8.50
12 Soldier of the Pantheon Theros 4/30/2014 $1.49
3 Arcbound Ravager Modern Masters 4/30/2014 $18.99
10 Thoughtseize Theros 4/30/2014 $16.00

Total spent from April 30th until now – $909.65

Total current retail value of cards TCG Median – $1,152.10

% Gain / Loss – 21% retail (before accounting for shipping)

Accounting for shipping at estimated $1.50 per order, if each single card was an order:

31 separate cards * $1.50 = $46.50. This brings the total spent up to $956.15.

% Gain / Loss including shipping = 17% Retail

Buylist – How much can I get if I buylist all the cards right now?

Using MTGPrice’s My Collection tool I’ve determined that the cash value of my collection when sold to vendors is $649.95.

% Gain / Loss of Buylisting = 29% Buylist

There seems to be some conflicting information here. I’ve gained in terms of retail but lost in terms of buylist? Let me explain further why the numbers resulted this way.

Retail and Buylist – Why You Shouldn’t Value at Retail

Based on my calculations in the previous section, you can see that I thought I was erroneously ahead based on the retail value of the cards – in reality I am set back about 30% based on the pickups I’ve made this year. Seems like I’m doing bad right? Well, only if I decided to cash out this very second. Many of the cards I plan on holding for a while longer yet. You can can put pretty much everything from Khans into this category, including Jeskai Ascendency when I bought in during the hype of Pro Tour Kahns at $5. Retrospectively, it was a bad decision to buy into the hype and I need to restrain myself in the future of buying based on immediate fluctuation.

Another reason that buylist seems so miserable right now is because the more expensive purchases, such as foil Conspiracy Exploration and foil M15 Sliver Hivelord, haven’t moved in price at all since I picked them up earlier this year. These would be examples of the long term holds I mentioned. I’m not planning on selling these at a loss simply because I know with time they are bound to go up due to causal and Commander demand. It happened for Chromatic Lantern and it will happen again here.

In order to get the maximum amount from buylisting this year, I would have needed all of my speculations to double up or more – in seven months this was not going to happen to everything I was choosing. It just goes to show that mtgfinance is the ultimate waiting game if you’re looking to get the most out of future buylisting.

Many of these cards I plan on keeping for personal use and I don’t care what the current prices are, buylist or otherwise. I expect to have them for a long time and can cash them out later when I know I’m not using them.

Valuing at retail looks pretty sweet for cards like Hero’s Downfall and Doomwake Giant – if I can find someone to trade these to, I can really come out ahead if I pick up Modern staples or other casual format gainers like cards from the new Commander 2014 set. This would be the only benefit of a retail price increase.

Lessons Learned – Additional Goals for Next Year

Now that the year is wrapping up and I’ve determined how I did, I want to add a few more goals to my list for next year.

  1. Ask myself “can this card double up, and if it does will the buylist reflect that?”

This is going to save me a few heartaches when I realize that those Doomwake Giants, even though doubling in retail, actually haven’t moved much at all on the buylist.

  1. Continue to Find Avenues for Trading such as Puca Trade

Having more ways to trade cards away for retail value is essential for failed buylist specs like Doomwake Giant. By trading them at retail, you can ignore the abysmal buylist price and instead pick up a long term staple like Snapcaster Mage that will continue to be around for years to come.

  1. Avoid the Hype – The Window is Too Short

As soon as Pro Tour Khans was over, the prices went back down to almost where they started and have leveled off since then. Avoiding the hype is hard to do when the numbers are telling you different, but look no further than my own speculations to see that hype is gone in a flash and then you are stuck waiting a while longer for value that may not even arrive.

Final Thoughts

2014 has certainly been a learning experience for me. I’ve had success, but at the price of terrible buylisting options. I’ll need to either trade more aggressively once retail prices go up for cards I’m interested in or I will need to pass on the more aggressive spiking cards and instead aim for more stable long term gainers.

Right now, my buylist loss of 30% is pretty big without even considering the shipping costs that would further add to that loss. However, I still believe the future is very promising for some of the cards I’ve acquired. Foil Chromatic Lantern, a card that by every means had to go up in price based on the popularity in Commander, still took eleven months to double up in price from $7.50 to $15.00. The fact that many of the cards I picked up increased in retail price is also a good sign because this means if the cards continue to stay popular the buylist will have to increase in order to match the demand.

The conflicting gains and losses that I discovered for my pickups is acceptable to me at this point yet there is certainly room for improvement. Since my loss would be so great from buylisting, I’m going to have to take the risk that the retail prices will continue to rise rather than getting 70% of the cash value of the cards right now and taking a 30% loss. Many of the cards I picked up are casual and Commander gainers so I expect them to retain their value for quite a while yet. I picked up a fair amount of foils that I believe will gain in the long term, limited my booster box / pack purchases, and severely restricted the amount of bulk rares I bought. I followed my goals closely but not close enough in some cases. There are still plenty of takeaways from this year.

What does everyone think of my selections? Do you think I’m in trouble or do you think I’m doing well? What do you think my worst and best pickups were?


 

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY