Theros Review Through the Lens of Standard

September 23, 2013 Jared Yost 7 Comments

This week I delve deeply into Theros and identify all target cards in the set that Standard players should look out for in the coming months. I have researched the entire set and have provided my commentary on what cards I believe will see Standard play or become more valuable in the future.

I have divided my analysis of each card into four categories. These categories indicate what I think are the best strategies to pursue when determining if you want to speculate on a card in Theros. They are:

ACTIVE PICKUP – About two weeks after the set’s release, the crazy preorder and release prices will die down. At that point, try to acquire more than just a playset. These cards have a lot of room to grow.

PASSIVE PICKUP – Pick these up if you feel you will need it for your Standard deck in the short term, but otherwise wait for event results to start rolling in before you invest in more than a playset.

HOLD OFF – Wait one-and-a-half to two months and then buy in at the target price. These cards may eventually see heavy play in Standard, but the price is too high to take the risk right now.

BULK BUY – These are the Sanguine Bonds and Darksteel Plates of Theros. If you are interested in more formats than Standard or are comfortable with long-term investments, these have strong potential. If you are only a Standard player however, I do not recommend Bulk Buy cards because it may take months or even years for the card to produce returns.

My analysis for each card I’ve identified in Theros is listed by color, lands, and artifacts. I have provided my reasoning for each pick to justify why I believe the target price to buy is a good opportunity versus buying in at the current price.

White

Chained to the Rocks

Because this is a cheap Swords to Plowshares that better resembles Journey to Nowhere, it can certainly be Standard playable. However, right now there are many other removal options that do not have a potentially devastating drawback (not having a Mountain as a mana source). Pass on this card for now. If it reaches bulk status, pick them up cheap in case it gets played later in it’s Standard life.

Current Price: $2
Target Price to Buy-In: $1
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Elspeth, Sun’s Champion

Elspeth is a popular Planeswalker, but this six mana incarnation is going to be a tough sell at $35. It might see Standard play in a control shell but never more than as a two of. Once she drops to $10 or less, then would be a good time to get in because Planeswalkers always have casual appeal. If you are a Standard only player though, avoid Elspeth for the time being unless you absolutely need it for a deck.

Current Price: $35
Target Price to Buy-In: $8-$10
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Fabled Hero

The new incarnation of Silverblade Paladin leaves a lot to be desired. Playing it in an aggro deck is wrong, because you will have to play less creatures in order to fit spells to target this guy… at which point you leave yourself wide open for a two-for-one. Pass on this card; it will reach bulk status. Then you can pickup a playset in case the day comes in which he is better.

Current Price: $1
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK to $1
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Heliod, God of the Sun

I could see Heliod being the centerpiece of a deck due to many good white weenie cards that can turn on devotion easily. Though I do not think he will maintain the release price of $10, once he drops to half or less it will be a good time to pick up a playset for future brews.

Current Price: $10
Target Price to Buy-In: $3-$4
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Soldier of the Pantheon

Soldier of the Pantheon

This is a great card that will see play in Standard, most likely alongside Heliod or even in other W/X aggro builds. Picking him up for $3.50 does not seem right to me, but once he goes down to $2 or even $1 I would definitely pick him up because he will see play at some point in Standard.

Current Price: $3.50
Target Price to Buy-In: $1-$2
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Spear of Heliod

A Glorious Anthem with an upside seems good at first glance, but realize that it takes a lot of mana to get going with this thing. For $2 I won’t be buying in, but for bulk status you cannot go wrong because the effect is powerful and just needs a synergistic deck to get working.

Current Price: $2
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Blue

Bident of Thassa

Since this card is starting in bulk, it can really only go up from here if it sees even a smidgen of Standard play. I would not pick this up actively, maybe as a trade throw in, but grab at least a play set at bulk since you can’t really go wrong.

Current Price: BULK
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: BULK BUY

Curse of the Swine

Curse of the Swine

Because of the flavor of this card, I never see it going below a dollar. Many people are trying to get the card just for its casual appeal, so buying at $1 you will not lose any money. However, it probably won’t see Standard play so do not buy for that purpose if you thinking of this card as a speculation target.

Current Price: $1
Target Price to Buy-In: $1
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Master of the Waves

Terrible in Standard, however this card will hold casual appeal once it rotates out. If you are a Standard player, stay far away, but if you play Standard as well as casual, buying in at $2 (which is bulk for mythic rares) seems like the right call for Master of Waves.

Current Price: $6
Target Price to Buy-In: $2
Final Verdict: BULK BUY

Swan Song

May be played in Standard, but I doubt it. Giving your opponent a Wind Drake seems bad in a format that is not combo based. Wait to buy in on this one because while Swan Song will likely be played in more combo-heavy formats (Modern, Legacy,) there is plenty of time for the price to drop first.

Current Price: $3.50
Target Price to Buy-In: $1-$2
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Thassa, God of the Sea

Thassa seems very overpriced to me at this point. Scrying for one every upkeep is useful, but not $16 useful. I recommend waiting until she submerges to a more reasonable $7-$8, because while she’s too expensive now, there’s certainly a chance she could find a home in Standard control decks.

Current Price: $16
Target Price to Buy-In: $7-$8
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Black

Agent of the Fates

Agent can be very effective if played in the right deck, but for now the support does not exist to make him strong enough. Don’t be afraid to buy in at bulk prices, but avoid picking up at retail.

Current Price:$2
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Erebos, God of the Dead

Erebos is a great card that will have a deck built around him. However, like most cards in Theros, as more packs are opened the price of Erebos will decrease because he only fits into one or two archetypes. Wait to pickup.

Current Price: $11.50
Target Price to Buy-In: $5-$6
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Hero's Downfall

Hero’s Downfall

If I had to, I would still feel comfortable buying in at $4. This will be the premium removal at Rare moving forward. It is even better than Dreadbore and complements Doomblade nicely. It might see a price reduction to $2-$3 if black does not see a resurgence in play, though I doubt it since Thoughtseize is also coming back. Wait to see if it drops, but if there’s upward movement grab your play set before it gets expensive.

Current Price: $4
Target Price to Buy-In: $3-$4
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Thoughtseize

Thoughtseize is a definite staple in the new Standard, we can all agree on that. However, when is the correct time to buy? I usually find that waiting 1.5 to 2 months after a set’s release to be the optimum time to buy the more expensive format staples. They will be reasonably priced at this point and are guaranteed to go up in price as they get older in Standard. I predict Thoughtseize will go no lower than $15, so this is the sweet spot to pick this up. If you have to bite the bullet and buy now, go ahead but I highly recommend waiting if you can.

Current Price: $23
Target Price to Buy-In: $15-$17
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Red

Anger of the Gods

Anger of the Gods

I like this sweeper as a complement to Mizzium Mortars. What I don’t like is the RR casting cost, which unfortunately does not count toward Devotion. I also don’t see this taking the same path as Slagstorm, which was a staple in the Mono Red Standard deck when Mirrodin Besieged was Standard legal and commanded a price to match that (being $8-$10 at its peak). It also does not hit players and get that extra damage in like Slagstorm when you most need it. However, despite all its faults, there is potential which is why I recommend picking up a play set. At the very worst, this will see Modern play and still retain its $3 price tag. If it goes deeper, then profits can certainly be made.

Current Price: $3
Target Price to Buy-In: $2
Final Verdict: ACTIVE PICKUP

Hammer of the Purphoros

I like the Hammer because it makes your deck faster and your Devotion better. Unfortunately, 3 mana is one mana too much for this card. I foresee it hitting bulk pretty soon, which will be a good time to pick them up. Even though it will hit bulk, it could definitely go up a lot if it is one the key synergies in a future Standard deck.

Current Price: $1.30
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Magma Jet

This is a great uncommon that will see play in Standard throughout its entire life in the format. Pick these up now and trade for them at every opportunity; they will always hold value.

Current Price: $.95
Target Price to Buy-In: $.95
Final Verdict: ACTIVE PICKUP

Purphoros, God of the Forge

Purphoros is in my opinion the strongest god in the set. His mini-Pandemonium ability is fantastic and gives value to all of your one and two drops after turn four, making your draws that much better later in the game. However, I see him as a wax-and-wane type card that will fall in and out of favor as aggro and control battle for the top spot in Standard. In the lulls, when Purphoros goes down pick them up for $14-$16 and you will not be disappointed. He will go up again because his impact is that strong.

Current Price: $22
Target Price to Buy-In: $14-$16
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Stormbreath Dragon

See Thundermaw Hellkite. This card will drop to about half of it’s preorder price, and then afterwards the sky is the limit. Well, not really – there is one big difference between the two, and that is the Hellkite was in a core set. Core sets aren’t opened nearly as much as the fall set, so $20 is probably the max for this card if it sees any significant amount of Standard play. Try to get in at the low point two months from now and then see gains as it goes up throughout his Standard life unless you have to buy them to complete your Standard deck.

Current Price: $25
Target Price to Buy-In: $8-$10
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Green

Arbor Colossus

Did you know this card is only 5 mana for a 6/6 with reach, and then an UPSIDE? Hard to believe that a card like this can be outclassed in Standard, but there you have it. The power of creatures has certainly risen significantly over the years. I do see how this might see Standard play since you can play him as a 6/6 by turn four with acceleration, and then make him a 9/9 by turn five that may also bring down an opposing flier. There are a lot of small upsides to this card that in the big picture could add up to great value. I wouldn’t actively pick these up, but I could see them increasing down the road if someone plays the card as “tech”. Even if it doesn’t hit, just out them for bulk and get your money back.

Current Price: BULK
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Boon Satyr

Boon Satyr

Boon Satyr is an interesting card. It reminds me of Wolfir Avenger, which saw Standard play. However this guy is a rare, so has the chance of reaching much higher prices than Wolfir Avenger did. I can see him being played and if the deck puts up results you can expect Boon Satyr to increase in price accordingly.

Current Price: $2
Target Price to Buy-In: $1-$2
Final Verdict: ACTIVE PICKUP

Bow of Nylea

Similar to Arbor Colossus, this card has an insane amount of abilities for a decent mana cost. I think that this card could definitely see Standard play, but paying more than $2 for the bow at this point seems a bit much. Pick them up for $2 or less in a month or so. Remember the bow is in a preconstructed deck.

Current Price: $2.50
Target Price to Buy-In: $1-$2
Final Verdict: BULK BUY

Mistcutter Hydra

Green really is getting all the crazy cards with multiple abilities this set. Here is another card with all sorts of things going on that has the potential to see play. Without trample, I like Mistcutter Hydra a little less than Arbor Colossus or Bow of Nylea. Hydras are a popular casual card, so if you pick up this up at bulk it could be a good investment some ways down the road. If you are only a Standard player though, I would avoid this card as a speculation target.

Current Price: $3
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK to $2
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Nemesis of Mortals

This uncommon is very powerful. It is a mini-Ghoultree that takes two turns to make big, but comes out initially at a decent mana cost. It could see Standard play at some point, so I would actively try to get a play set. After that point pick them up in trades whenever you can.

Current Price: $.10
Target Price to Buy-In: $.10
Final Verdict: ACTIVE PICKUP

Nylea, God of the Hunt

The green god feels like it will have the least impact on Standard, since her abilities are somewhat tame compared to the other gods. However, it will be a big hit with the casual crowd, so picking them up at $4 in a few months is a solid play.

Current Price: $9
Target Price to Buy-In: $4-$5
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Polukranos, World Eater

Polukranos, World Eater

This is the mythic hydra of the set, and it does a good job of filling that role. It is already being brewed into the next version of Jund for standard, so I would actively try to pick them up if you are looking to build midrange Jund. At the least, it will be popular casual card that will keep from being a dollar bin mythic. Paying $4 for these is completely acceptable if you need them for Standard.

Current Price: $4
Target Price to Buy-In: $2-$3
Final Verdict: ACTIVE PICKUP

Sylvan Caryatid:

After Elvish Mystic, this is the next best mana ramp. Expect to see a ton of this card in Standard over the next several months as every three color green deck needs to play four of these in order to maintain mana base consistency. If you are planning on playing three colors in the new Standard, get your play set ASAP.

Current Price: $5
Target Price to Buy-In: $2-$3
Final Verdict: ACTIVE PICKUP

Multicolor

Anax and Cymede

Anax and Cymede could be good in an aggro build that supports the ability, but unfortunately not as more than two or three copies. Because they are legendary, EDH fans will like the card, so it will never be exactly bulk. The duel deck will also keep the price down, so I wouldn’t be actively trying to pick these up even though it will probably see Standard play.

Current Price: $1
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK to $1
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Chronicler of Heroes:

Another really great uncommon from the set. Whoever heard of G/W creatures drawing cards when they come into play? Unfortunately, it needs a specific strategy built around it in order to be good, so it could turn out to be a dud. Getting them at bulk uncommon prices though ($0.05) seems good because the potential is there.

Current Price: $.2
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Daxos of Meletis

Might see play in Standard; the ability is really great in control mirror matches. However, he is not very useful against most decks and will probably end up as bulk. Try and pick up foils of this card, though, as he will be an amazing commander in EDH. Avoid as a spec target if you are only a Standard player.

Current Price: $2
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK to $1
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Fleecemane Lion

This card is deceptive. Yes, I remember how good Watchwolf was back in the day, but these days Watchwolf is simply outclassed. The monstrous upgrade is simply too much mana at five to come online at any important stage of the game. I foresee these quickly dropping as people realize the cat isn’t as good as it seems at first glance. That said, Fleemane Lion will definitely be a casual crowd favorite for years to come, so wait for the opportunity to buy in at low prices.

Current Price: $8
Target Price to Buy-In: $2-$3
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Polis Crusher

I could see Polis Crusher as a good sideboard card against certain archetypes, but honestly he is a worse Ghor-Clan Rampager. Pick up at bulk in case it comes online as good tech against certain match-ups but otherwise avoid.

Current Price: $.75
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Reaper of the Wilds

Another card that seems really great at first glance but I believe will ultimately turn out to be underwhelming. Sure, being able to Scry 1 for every creature that dies can be pretty powerful, but doesn’t actually get you there. Deathtouch isn’t important on a 4/5, but on-demand hexproof makes this gal unexpectedly resilient. Definitely pick them up at bulk in a few months because Reaper could see Standard play eventually.

Current Price: $2
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK to $1
Final Verdict: HOLD OFF

Underworld Cerberus

Underworld Cerberus

This card is interesting. I want to believe Cerberus will follow the same trajectory as Master of Cruelties, but this guy is a 6/6 that will probably be unblockable most of the game in B/R, which are colors that do not see that ability very often. It also will be quite good in midrange Jund because it is pretty much unkillable outside of sweepers like Supreme Verdict. No wrath effects in Theros have everyone scratching their heads but it only makes cards like this even more insane. My strategy is to see how this plays out in the first few months in Standard. If you plan on playing it, pick up your play set now for $20 because it will most likely be a good deal in the long run. If you want to speculate on this card, wait for the results to come in before you decide. If it doesn’t put up amazing results, wait until it hits $2-$3 and then pick them up.

Current Price: $5
Target Price to Buy-In: $2-$3
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Xenagos, the Reveler

I anticipate Xenagos being played in Standard, but I see him taking the same path as Garruk Relentless. Starting out high at $20, slowly dropping to the mid teens and then eventually petering out at $7-$8. Wait until more Theros packs are opened if you want to play him in Standard; $15 will be comfortable to buy in at if you want to play Xenagos in Standard. If you are purely speculating, wait until January and then Xenagos will be much more affordable.

Current Price: $25
Target Price to Buy-In: $8-$10
Final Verdict: PASSIVE PICKUP

Lands/Artifacts

Temple of Triumph

The Scrylands

My prediction for all of the Scrylands is that people will be underwhelmed with them (as they should, really the lands should be uncommons,) but as time goes on in Standard all premium real estate will go up in value. Rare or higher lands (real estate as I refer to them) for the most part are the safest investment in Standard (and also other formats) because Standard players know that eventually they will have to play them, if not this year than certainly the year after that. They may go down to a measly $1-$2 in the beginning, but remember when Seachrome Coast was $20? Darkslick Shores $25? I certainly do, and it is a good lesson to learn – get your rare, dual colored lands early or pay the price later. Or in this case, make profits later. If you need any of these lands, picking them up for $4 now and getting your play set will still be fine in the long run. If you can wait, or if you want extras to trade later, pick up the scry lands when they bottom out around $1-$2 and hold onto them until they ultimately rise.

Current Price: $4
Target Price to Buy-In: $1-$2
Final Verdict: ACTIVE PICKUP

Colossus of Akros

The Colossus is the last card I want to mention. Even though this card seems like a complete dud, and most likely won’t see Standard play, don’t be so quick to get rid of yours. Huge fat fatties seem to have a thing for increasing exponentially in price over time. Remember It That Betrays? I didn’t either, until I saw that it is $7.50 at most stores online… and that card never saw a lick of Standard play. It That Betrays’ price completely hinges on casual players, and I think Colossus of Akros will follow the same path, as it is a very Timmy card that appeals to casuals and EDH players. Don’t actively pick these up, but rather get them as trade throw-ins or at bulk prices because eventually (maybe years down the road) I see these guys rising to an absurd price for a generally bad card.

Current Price: $.50
Target Price to Buy-In: BULK
Final Verdict: BULK BUY

Conclusion

As you can see, most of the cards will drop in price and I recommend waiting to pick them up at their lower prices unless you absolutely need them for a Standard deck. If you feel that any of the cards I have evaluated should be reassessed I encourage you to leave a comment and explain your reasoning. In addition, if you feel that I have missed any important cards for the upcoming Standard environment you should likewise feel free to comment and let me know.

City of Traders

It’s My Land Drop and I’ll Scry if I Want To

September 18, 2013 Travis Allen 12 Comments

By Travis Allen

The reveal of the Scrylands in Theros have been responsible for more belly-aching and nonsensical complaints (“these cards have no value! Putting them at rare is a cash grab!”) than any other Magic card in recent memory. The existence of the gates at common in Ravnica block hasn’t helped by providing a strong contrast to what some perceive as a marginally better land. My goal today is to develop an accurate concept of their power, use that concept to prove that a bunch of people are stupid, and then finally discuss common trajectories of rare land cycles in Fall sets.

Consider a Scryland relative to Serum Visions. Serum Visions is frequently played in Modern now that one of the best cantrips ever, Preordain, is banned. It’s completely playable and would unquestionably be a significant portion of the standard metagame were it reprinted in Theros (which there’s still time for.)

Let’s start with scenario A, where you keep a 7 card hand with 2 lands and Serum Visions. You put a Hallowed Fountain into play and tap it to cast Serum Visions. You immediately draw a card, and then scry 2. You end up with 6 cards in hand, 1 land in play tapped, 18 life, and fixed the top 2 of your library.

In scenario B, you have a 7 card hand where 1 of those lands is the UW Scryland. You put it into play tapped, and scry 1. You keep the card or you ship it to the bottom. You end up with 6 cards in hand, 1 land in play tapped, and you fixed the top card of your library.

In scenario A, Serum Visions is similar to Gitaxian Probe in a way – you’re going to replace it with the top card of your deck, but you don’t actually know what that card is. Is it removal? A threat? More mana? We don’t have that knowledge yet. So more accurately, you have 6 cards that are known, and a 7th that is a mystery card. This is in contrast to scenario B, in which you have complete knowledge of what your 7 available cards are. This has a not-insignificant impact on your ability to make mulligan decisions. For example, what about an opening 7 card hand with 3 Serum Visions? You really only know 4 cards at that point.

In scenario B, you know exactly what your hand looks like. If you have 4 Scrylands, you know for sure you’re hitting your first 4 land drops. Along the way, you’re going to be monitoring your top card in an attempt to not draw something you don’t want.

Another way to consider the side effect of impreciseness of information is to consider a 1 land hand. A 1 land hand with Serum Visions is far riskier than a 1 Scryland hand. A 1 Scryland hand is pretty easily a mulligan. A 1-lander with Serum may entice you to keep, and if you don’t have a land in the top 4 cards, you’re in real trouble.

Returning to our original scenarios, which fares better, the Serum or the Scryland? There’s definitely value in scrying an extra card deeper, especially so for a combo deck that just wants to get as deep as possible for particular pieces. However, the more accurate information of the Scryland certainly has value. There are plenty of 1-land Serum Visions hands people have kept and promptly lost because they expected it to do too much work.

Overall, I’d say that in your opening hand, a Serum Visions is reasonably better than a Scryland if piloting a combo deck. In a control deck, the margin between them is considerably thinner.

How about late in the game? Say it is turn 9+, and both you and your opponent are now topdecking.

In scenario X, you draw your Serum Visions. You pay 1 mana to immediately draw the next card, and you then scry 2, hoping to move lands and irrelevant spells to the bottom of your library. You effectively drew 1 card (the Serum doesn’t really count, since you immediately replace it,) tapped 1 mana, and you scryed 2.

In scenario Y, you draw a Scryland. You put the land into play tapped, and either keep or ship the top card of your library. You end up with 1 additional mana which is tapped, and you scryed 1.

Scenario X sounds a lot better, but wait a moment. What if the card you drew off the Serum Visions was a land? You put it into play, and now you’re in a very similar situation to the Scryland play – 1 tapped land, an additional one in play, and now new cards in hand. You did scry one extra card deeper, though. This is objectively better, but that doesn’t mean it is better in every situation.

Imagine your opponent has no threats on board and your scry sees a land on top and the new Murderbore second from the top. You ship both because you don’t need either; at this point you want a threat. Then your opponent rips a creature, and you find yourself wishing you still had that Murderbore. If you had only scryed 1, you would have shipped the land, and then drew the Murderbore at exactly the right time. This isn’t to say that scrying for 1 is better than 2, but simply that occasionally you will burn yourself by having to make decisions about the game state several turns down the road with very imperfect information.

So far, it sounds like Serum Visions is basically better than the Scryland in both the early game and the late game. However, that isn’t taking into account a very important factor – the Scrylands don’t cost you a card. When you put 4 Serum Visions into your deck, you’re down to 56 cards left. The Scrylands, however, are slotted in as lands.

If history has taught us anything, it’s that lands with added value are incredibly potent. What other lands have functioned as spells? Kessig Wolf Run, Moorland Haunt, and the rest of their Innistrad Ilk have this feature. The manlands from Worldwake, which saw heavy Standard play and continue to see moderate Modern play, are also lands that grant additional value. Most recently, Mutavalt in M14 fills this role. Historically, most lands that have any sort of additional spell function make a good run in Standard.

While Serum Visions is often better than a Scryland, it is a spell and a spell alone. It provides velocity and mild card selection, but costs you information in your opening hand, card slots, and mana. In contrast, the Scrylands are about 1/4th to 3/4th as good as a Serum Visions depending on the situation, but are stapled onto lands so their effect is essentially free. Take a gander at Eyes of the Watcher, which gives us a foundation that scry 2 is worth roughly 1 mana. From this, it is fair to say scry 1 is worth roughly half a mana. The cost to playing these lands is the tempo loss of being forced to play it tapped, which all but the most dedicated aggro decks can often afford. This means that every time you put a Scryland into play, you’re getting roughly half a mana’s worth of value for roughly free. How many other lands can claim this?

There are a lot of nuances to understanding exactly how good the Scrylands will be in various decks and various situations, and Pat Chapin will probably provide better insight than I, but I hope this general discussion will illustrate that the Scrylands are considerably stronger than many out there would have you believe.

Now that we’ve established that they’re not just a “blatant cash grab” we want to consider their financial trajectory. What can we expect out of them early on, and what does their price life look like a year from now?

There are a lot of examples to look back on to answer these questions, the most recent just a quick hop back in time to Innistrad, and before that, Scars of Mirrodin. Both the Innistrad Enemy Checklands and the Scars of Mirrodin Fastlands had considerably similar price histories. During prerelease, they preorder for somewhere between $4 and $10.

As the set becomes drafted and copies begin flooding into the market, prices start dropping. They see some amount of play, but because they’re available in such quantity, and the previous set land prices have risen, they remain suppressed in value. Isolated Chapel and friends were all well under $4, some even dipping below $2 at times. The SOM Fastlands did the exact same thing; I clearly recall seeing Seachrome Coasts being under $2 at one point.

The lands hit their floor typically in early spring. As we approach Summer, players begin to dump their rotating lands from the prior set, and the Magic market as a whole collectively realizes that the only lands they’ll have available to them in September will be the [Fastlands/Checkands/Scrylands.] Prices begin to tick up slowly over the summer, and once fall hits, the lands take turns spiking hard as decks of the appropriate colors show up with a full playset. Isolated Chapel was nearly $20 at one point, as were Seachrome Coast and Darkslick Shores.

Finally, after enjoying their time in the sun (which is actually autumn and winter), the following spring rolls around, and the circle of life continues. They too follow the footsteps of the prior set’s lands, just as those did one year earlier. Looking backwards, the Shocklands have followed this exact trajectory to date, and are poised to break out in short order. Before them, the Checklands, the Fastlands, and the Zendikar fetches have behaved accordingly.

There is no reason to expect the Scrylands to deviate from this pattern. They’re preording for $5-$9 at the moment, but they’ll be sub-$3 soon enough. I’ll personally be vacuuming them up as soon as they dip that low, and if I see any hit $1.50 on a retail site, there’s a chance I’ll go deep – several hundred dollars deep.

On a completely unrelated and final topic, I’m disappointed that the B&R list didn’t have any changes to a non-pauper format. The formats may be reasonably stable, but there is no reason they couldn’t have shaken things up with some low-impact unbans in Legacy. It leads me to believe that they simply weren’t thinking about it rather than they closely examined their options and chose to do nothing.

See you next week when I do a (mostly) full review of Theros.

City of Traders

Anticipating the 2013 Fall Banned and Restricted List Update

September 11, 2013 Travis Allen 2 Comments

By Travis Allen

As Theros nears, it’s almost time for another visit to the Banned and Restricted list. Updates to the Banned and Restricted (B&R) list are responsible for some of the fastest and most severe price changes in Magic finance. It occurs at a very specific time (midnight) on a very specific site (dailymtg) amidst the cacophony of the F5 key being mashed by devoted mages everywhere. The changes have immediate impacts. There’s no need to spend time considering how a card influences a metagame; when a card is unbanned it simply skyrockets in price. Whether it will be any good at all or not is completely irrelevant. Midnight at the B&R corral is entirely a “shoot first and ask questions later” scenario.

Today we’ll look at reasonable candidates for removal from the list, and the consequences of those cards being unbanned. If I don’t reference a card, it’s because I don’t consider the likelihood of it being unbanned at this time enough to warrant discussion.

One last thing – Jace isn’t getting unbanned. Don’t ask about it.

Modern

Wild Nacatl – Wizards originally cited a concern that Nacatl reduces diversity by eventually forcing all green-based aggressive strategies to be quite similar. Well, a great deal has changed since then, and the result is that we have basically no green aggro/zoo at this point.

Wild Nacatl: Duel Decks Ajani vs Nicol Bolas

At this point the soup du jour for getting into the red zone is Robots. There’s been a little RG Aggro that pops up now and then, but it’s a fringe player at best. Wild Nacatl would have the chance to put green-based aggressive decks back on the map again and help temper the significant amount of combo roaming the Modern landscape.

Wild Nacatl will be unique on this list in that she herself will not vary much in price if she is allowed back into Modern. As a common, there isn’t much room for growth. The pack foils and promo will see a slight uptick at best. Additionally, looking back at old Zoo lists before she was banned there appears to be very few rares in those lists that aren’t still seeing solid play, so none of her old cronies are poised to see a huge upswing if she returns.

As best as I can tell, the biggest winner if Wild Nacatl is unbanned is Domri Rade. He’s already showing up in Modern, and Nacatl would cement him as a legitimate contender in the format. Domri is starting to push $25 already, and could easily end up the best Planeswalker in standard. Nacatl pushing him harder in Modern could send him into the $30-$35+ range pretty easily. Unfortunately, as speculators it’s tough to put so much capital into a card with a profit margin of around $5. You’ll want to own a playset, but I wouldn’t go much deeper than that.

Honestly, beyond Domri, I’m not sure what else is a hot pickup if Nacatl is unbanned. I’d love to hear your suggestions in the comments of a card I’m overlooking that isn’t already justifying its price tag.

Bitterblossom – I’m no fan of the fae myself, but I recognize that Bitterblossom would unquestionably give rise to a new (old) contender. It’s assuredly a riskier choice than Nacatl, and may end up proving to be too much, but given the relative diversity of Modern right now Wizards may be willing to try adding a little spice. Enabling fae would certainly help reign in the combo decks a bit, just as Nacatl would.

Where is the money to be made with a Bitterblossom unbanning? The non-promo itself is already $15-20, so like Domri, even if it rises in price we’re unlikely to see our investment even double. Obtaining a playset of these if you’re interested in the deck is safe, but hardly lucrative. Vendilion Clique is already obscenely priced, so that’s not particularly a good spec target. Our best bet would be a rare that is seeing no play at all right now, but would be a major player in fae.

My choice for this role is Mistblind Clique. Due to the champion trigger, she’s unplayable without a critical mass of faeries, but in a Bitterblossom deck, champion may as well be advantageous. As a 4/4 Time Walk that gets even sillier with Restoration Angel, a card that faeries would probably want anyways, Mistbind is fertile ground at only $3. What makes this particularly safe is that it’s been a long time since we’ve seen Mistbind do anything in a real format and she’s still $3, so that appears to be her real floor for the time being, meaning you can’t lose much on an investment. If Bitterblossom gets unbanned, Mistbind could easily break $10, and $20 isn’t inconceivable.

Interesting note: good luck finding foils of this card. As of this writing, TCG has 0, SCG has 1 SP JP, ABU has 1 NM and 1 SP, and eBay has 1 JP.

Legacy

Earthcraft – I’m not sure this card actually does anything in Legacy, which makes it a great card to remove from the B&R list. I think we are well beyond the point that a 2-3 card combo that requires a basic land would have any meaningful impact in that format. If it’s unbanned it will double or triple in price, but then what? A viable competitive deck will almost undoubtedly fail to materialize, so after an initial jump it will spend months dwindling down. Make sure that if you’re holding any when/if this is unbanned, you sell into the hype immediately.

Memory Jar – Many are aware that this card has the honor of being the only one in Magic history to be emergency banned. However, that was in Urza’s Legacy, and Tolarian Academy was in the set prior. Yes, Memory Jar draws you 7 cards. It also costs 5 mana. Would it be unbelievably broken? Unlikely. It would certainly be riskier than a card like Earthcraft but that doesn’t preclude Wizards from finding out.

Memory Jar itself would be the biggest beneficiary of it being unbanned, easily surpassing $15-$20.

Mind Twist – By the time you’re casting this in a way that makes it better than Hymn, it’s taking your entire hand to do it. Sure your opponent has no cards left, but neither do you, except for maybe a City of Traitors or a Grim Monolith. And that is the best case scenario. Mind Twist is a relatively safe unban, and most Legacy enthusiasts agree.

The financial impact would be very similar to Earthcraft. We’d see prices severely increase ($8-20), but when it fails to put up results, it will slowly tick down. Again, sell into the hype immediately.

Mind’s Desire – This is my favorite card on this list for a few reasons. First of all, the judge promo is phenomenal looking. Second, I simply think the card is cool when viewed through a kitchen table lens. Third, the card is comfortably under $1. If Mind’s Desire is unbanned, $15 each seems easy, as any Desire deck would want four. This card is super cheap to get in on, and has a gigantic upside.

Mind's Desire Judge Promo — Mind’s Desire Judge Promo

Before the comments fill up with people exclaiming this card is buh-roken, consider it relative to Ad Nauseam. Mind’s Desire needs 6 mana, 2 of which are blue, and a healthy storm count. Ad Nauseam needs 5 mana, 2 of which are black. The biggest point in Mind’s Desire’s favor is that a single FoW won’t stop it as it will Ad Nauseam. Given the extra work you have to do in order to cast the card however, that doesn’t seem unreasonable.

Mystical Tutor – This was banned on considerably dubious grounds due to Reanimator, and that deck is hardly crushing Legacy. We have a good idea of what the format looks like with it back, so it’s not a complete unknown in the same way something like Memory Jar would be. The biggest threat with this card is probably Show and Tell. if Mystical Tutor is unbanned, it may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back in regards to getting S&T banned.

Around $4-$5, the upside on this is probably about double. Not only was it in FTV, It was uncommon in both Mirage and 6th Edition, which has a very real impact on the quantity available. I would be picking these up in trades for cheap if possible, but I probably wouldn’t put much cash directly into them.

Tolarian Academy – One of the most feared lands of all time and the frosty harbinger of combo winter. There is little consideration given to why this is banned; a simple “It’s Tolarian Academy” will suffice. However, this article by Carsten Kotter from last year has a great explanation of why the card is probably (mostly) fair. It’s certainly a few levels above Earthcraft, but it’s entirely possible it isn’t a Survival of the Fittest.

Financially? Gaea’s Cradle is ~$130. The sky’s the limit.

Worldgorger Dragon – Worldgorger sets up an infinite loop with something like Animate Dead, so you get infinite mana and infinite ETB triggers. In order to accomplish this however, you need to get Worldgorger into your graveyard, reanimate it with Animate Dead, and dodge your opponent having counterspells, creature removal, or graveyard removal. At that point, isn’t Griselbrand or Jin-Gitaxis just better?

Like Mind’s Desire, he’s comfortably under $1 which leaves a huge amount of room to grow, regardless of performance. Immediately sell any and all copies into the hype.

I mentioned it briefly before, but this article by Carsten is a great look at the Banned and Restricted list. There are a lot of cards on those lists that we just assume are there for a good reason, but haven’t truly considered in quite some time. It’s a fun read.

Stormbreath Dragon is the real deal. Did you notice that Pat Chapin’s article today (premium required) over on SCG had him in nearly every single deck that made red mana?
Nimbus Maze has been confirmed to not be in Theros, so sorry if you wasted $40 on a foil playset like I did.
There was a post on Reddit about Savageborn Hydra being a decent spec target. I definitely agree. While it’s not guaranteed he jumps while in Standard, the precedent is there to at least double your money by the time he rotates.

Commander 2013

Planning ahead for Commander 2013

September 6, 2013 Cliff Daigle 1 Comment

There is a healthy amount of debate about which casual format is the most popular. We have so many to choose from! EDH is my forte, but we have Cubes, Rainbow, Highlander, Horde, and so many more. I’m of the opinion that 60-card casual is the most popular, without much regard for sets and legality. There are some awesome and fun decks to build, and I’ve got the Voltron deck with the Visions Chimera creatures to back this statement up.

EDH is the casual format that gets the most press, though, and it also gets the most official support from Wizards. In 2011, they released a set of five preconstructed 100-card decks that contained cards never printed before. This was a real gamble from the company, because if a card took off for Legacy, then the decks would get bought up.

Luckily, this wasn’t really a problem. Flusterstorm was quickly a judge promo, and just as Scavenging Ooze was getting out of hand in price, it’s a rare in Magic 2014.

Let’s not overlook the value that was crammed into these decks, though. On top of the new cards, there were lots of reprints with monetary worth. Sol Ring was in every deck, and the price on that alone is 25% of the MSRP.

We got lands, artifacts, creatures, all sorts of amazing goodies, and for a surprisingly reasonable price. Since this was a wide release, game stores didn’t have a chance to mark this up like they do with FTV or other limited releases.

Why am I reviewing things from two years ago? Because there is a new set of five Commander decks coming out this November, and we know enough to make some plans. Last week I made some specific price predictions that are taking into account a new batch of EDH players, and the increased demand for such casual cards.

The decks are three-color shards, allied colors as in the Shards of Alara block. This means that the tri-lands like Seaside Citadel, currently $2 uncommons, will very likely get a reprint. I think their value will go down slightly (so you should get rid of extras you have now), but you should pick up foils now if you can.

We didn’t get much in terms of rare lands last time, aside from Command Tower, an elegantly simple design. Expect that to get printed again. I would suggest you keep an eye on eBay for the two foil Towers, the judge promo and the Commanders Arsenal, as those won’t come around again with that art and in foil. When the new decks come out, people will want the foils and I doubt you’ll be able to find these under $20.

I don’t expect the check lands (Sunpetal Grove, Sulfur Falls, etc.) to be in these decks either. I’m targeting these lands when they rotate anyway, but you want to have the two allied lands and the enemy-color land to trade away at high value once people are opening the decks and want to improve the manabase. So for the red-black-blue deck (Grixis colors) someone will want a Dragonskull Summit, a Drowned Catacomb, and a Sulfur Falls, all at once. You should be able to get the assorted checklands for very low investment once rotation happens, and they will bump up when the Commander decks come out.

Since the new decks are shards and not wedges like the last, I’m also looking for the legends from the 2011 set. Being printed two years ago and safe from printing this year means that they are safe for at least another year. When someone picks up EDH as a format, the tendency is to go on a deck-building spree. Did you know that Kaalia of the Vast is a $15+ card? She will probably be retailing for $20 before Valentine’s Day. It’s hard to find spare singles from Commander’s Arsenal but it may be worth it, since we have been told that the preconstructed decks will be a yearly thing and CA was a one-time product.

The two spoiled legends from the set are a Vampire and a Dragon. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Bant Angel, a Naya Beast, and an Esper Sphinx as legends. I’m on the lookout for cards that go well with those tribes and two are about to rotate: Thundermaw Hellkite and Vampire Nocturnus. I’m sure we will see some tribal enablers too.

Give me a moment to make a wild-eyed prediction. Ever since Jace, the Mind Sculptor was put in FTV:20, I’ve had it in my mind that the C13 decks will have fetchlands in each deck. Maybe just one per deck, the enemy-colored ones from Zendikar, because this would increase the supply of those lands for Modern decks somewhat. I’d really love to get the maximum of three fetches per deck but that would just be too amazing.

I want to leave you with this closing thought, based on my play with the first set of five Commander decks: These are not Duel Decks, these are not Event decks. These are very playable, staple-filled, fairly competitive EDH decks. Even now, two years later, each of the decks is easily worth more than its MSRP. Don’t sleep on the value involved just because you don’t play the format.

But you really ought to be playing the format.

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