My Financial Evil Twin

By: Travis Allen

There are many ways Magic decks appeal to players. The archetypal GR list that is a pile of nasty monsters, each capable of winning a game when left unchecked, appeals to players who just want to beat the snot out of their opponent with heavy-hitters. Slow UW decks that seek to slowly gain complete control of the game with counterspells, removal, and card advantage appeal to those who want to leverage their play skill over their opponent in a long, drawn out process. Combo decks tickle the fancy of players that want to do cool things very quickly, ending with a critical turn in which the actually or virtually win the game on the spot. Burn decks appeal to sociopaths.

Everyone is drawn more strongly to one type of deck, and some are drawn more strongly than others. A severe spike may find one archetype more interesting than another, but will never play anything other than the deck that gives him or her the best chance of winning. Other players will stick to discard decks exclusively, despite the fact that they’re bad in every format, because they derive perverse pleasure from seeing their opponent empty-handed. Regardless, while everyone has their preferred method of winning, there still exists sexy decks that at the very least will momentarily capture the attention of nearly any player.

Sexy decks are ones that can claim to do something wild and unique. What does sexy in the world of Magic look like? It’s drawing your entire deck in a single turn. It’s a screenshot of your opponent at -20,000 life. It’s killing them on turn zero. It’s hitting the token limit on MTGO. (Which is only 200, by the way. That is a heinously low token limit, and further evidence of how garbage the software really is. What if your opponent is playing some stupid Rhox Faithmender deck and gets to 370 life before you go off and make infinite 1/1 hasty tokens on the last turn of time? “Sorry, even though you win in paper Magic, you lose online.” I’d be pissed.) Sexy is not things like casting Mana Leak or activating Deathrite Shaman to dome someone for two life at the end of their turn.

We’re all momentarily enthralled by sexy decks and sexy plays. It’s human nature. Even if we know that it isn’t good or reliable, it’s still fun to see the extremes of the game. It’s a great reminder of how flexible the world of Magic really is, which is a welcome reminder when staring down the seventh Siege Rhino of the day in round two.

Sexy decks are usually defined by sexy cards. One or two hot cards pull the whole package together and make it look desirable. Birthing Pod is a sexy card. Goryo’s Vengeance is a sexy card. Villainous Wealth is a smoldering, tight black dress in an upscale hotel bar, my-girlfriend-would-be-upset-if-she-knew-what-I’m-thinking-about sexy card. Sexy cards are perfect for letting us entertain our darkest, filthiest, magical christmasy-land fantasies. As such, they’re also prone to exciting our wallets as well.

Work horse cards can be expensive, but it usually takes time to get there. They’re boring and dependable. People buy them because they have to, not because they’re excited to. Sylvan Caryatid, a AAA Standard staple, has taken nearly two months to go from $6.50 to $16.50. Caryatid is powerful and format-defining, but it’s not exactly sexy. Sexy is Glittering wish, which went from $2.50 to $20 in twenty-four hours.

Everyone can appreciate a sexy deck, and sexy decks contain sexy cards. Sexy cards see drastic movements in price.

You go to Pat Chapin for Grixis decks. You go to Craig Wescoe for white weenie decks. Who do you go to for sexy decks? Travis Woo.

It must be the name, because he and I share a love for brews that do very sexy things. I’m playing Jeskai Ascendancy in Modern right now, and I’ve cast more Goryo’s Vengeances in my lifetime than most men. I was trying to get Tooth and Nail to work as soon as Modern was announced, and even when I play real decks like Scapeshift I shoehorn a Gifts Ungiven/Elesh Norn package into them. We both like sexy decks. We both like claiming crazy things. We both like playing on the edge of the format.

Travis Woo enjoys his creations and he wants you to enjoy them as well. When I consider his proselytizing I am reminding of Mike Flores. They both share unbridled enthusiasm for their creations, convinced that they will turn the world of Magic on its ear. Each new deck they unveil is, in their eyes, a game-changer that will Make Them Take Notice, and Set the Format On Fire. Their unadulterated exaltation of their creations is a key component of their public identity. Neither of them writes about a deck and says “This seems decent in testing and I’m looking for ways to make it better.” They say things like “cash in your 401k to buy Primal Commands because this deck is unreal.”

The excitement Woo exudes when discussing and showing off his creations, along with the fact that they often utilize cards that have been sitting in dusty boxes for years, has a tendency to generate powerful hype when a new model rolls into the showroom floor. Stream a few games of sacrificing Summoner’s Egg at the end of T3 and then killing your opponent with the Emrakul that was underneath and people get into a tizzy. Cries about Woo breaking it circulate amongst the echo chamber, and before you know it there are no copies of the eponymous card left on TCGP. This has become known as the Woo Effect.

Without fail, these brews end up being far too unstable to reliably perform in large events. A few diehards will actually sleeve them up and take them to local Modern events where they’ll realize that UR Delver is just too real a deck and too miserable to play against for the concoction to succeed. The deck is desleeved, the marquee cards put into the trade binder, and the player returns to Channel TWoo eagerly awaiting the next revolution.

Do you know what isn’t sexy? Slowing your combo down to play around removal. Boarding out the turn-one kill and instead beating down with a few 2/1s. Getting disrupted by a turn one Thoughtseize and spending the rest of the game durdling around while your opponent does you in with a Tarmogoyf. Consistency isn’t sexy. Losing to sideboard cards isn’t sexy. Low prices aren’t sexy.

Waves of Aggression is the most recent recipient of the TWoo fervor machine, and the impetus for me to write this article. It was $.50 to a dollar on CFB for the longest time, yet now I can barely find a copy under $6.

waves

This is hardly the first time this is happened, and I’m sure it won’t be the last. Let’s look back at the last few times a card has seen such a drastic rise in response to inclusion in a TWoo article.

The next most recent occurrence that I can recall was Summoner’s Egg. In typical TWoo fashion, this image was included in the article in which he writes about Summoner’s Egg.

Screen-Shot-2014-01-13-at-4.46.21-PM-e1389660462602

This stands in contrast to the price graph.

egg

Like Waves of Aggression, it hovered in the $.50 to $1 range before he wrote about it. The spike here was slightly less, only hitting roughly $4, but the fall more severe: back to $1.50 CFB; up a whopping $.50 from where it started.

Following Egg is a pair of green cards that seemingly held great potential. I seem to recall TWoo advising you take out loans to buy into Primal Command.

primal

genesis

Primal Command faired a bit better. I was on the train on this one as I’m a sucker for a good green card. I remember picking them up between $2.75 and $3.25. The best buylist is as high now as it’s ever been at $5. It’s worth noting that while the spike on Primal Command first occurred in January, it wasn’t until May that the buylist actually got to $5. I spent weeks watching Command, hoping it would rise enough in price that it would be worth cashing out. It took months before there was actual realized profit to be had. I guess at this point, eight months later, I’ve made a profit of $2 a copy. Hooray?

Genesis Wave saw roughly comparable success. Copies were $2 on CFB right up until January 1st, when they jumped all the way to $7. The buylist didn’t follow immediately though. It ended up hitting $4 a copy, but not until February, and it only lasted two or three weeks. It dropped to $3 shortly after, and remains there today. I can recall shipping a few sets for $20 on eBay, but I think all said and done I made maybe $10 a playset. You’re certainly pleased with that, although the window of opportunity to do so was short; maybe a two or three days at most. There was no way you could have moved more than a handful of sets in that time period.

Finally we come to what would have been the most lucrative of TWoo’s recommendations: Disrupting Shoal.

shoal

Disrupting Shoal was $2 before Ninja Bear Delver Whatever, and managed a respectable $12 afterwards. A 500% increase is for sure a healthy profit margin. The buylist didn’t do a great job of keeping up, spending only days north of $5, but the private market would have been good to you. The heydey didn’t last forever, but NM copies are about $5-$6 on TCG right now which is still more than the $2 you would have paid for them.

Living End is perhaps the card most connected with Woo, although I don’t think he can claim responsibility for its price today. According to his CFB bio he T8’d with it in 2010, but the price spike isn’t until mid-2013, shortly after Modern Masters was released. While he certainly put the card on the map, buying in when he “broke” it would have meant a three year wait on getting paid.

What’s the takeaway from all of this? First I want to remind you of the costs of flipping cards.The short version of the story is that a card has to see a substantial rise in price in order for you to make any profit whatsoever, and even then it can be difficult to make more than minimum wage.

Next I want to point out that really, with the exception of Disrupting Shoal, you really wouldn’t have made much money buying cards Woo recommends. If you bought the night the article was published, before any movement had occurred whatsoever, you stood a chance to make a profit. It would have required not only being the first in line at TCGP, but also not having your order cancelled, receiving the cards before the hype died down, and actually getting them sold somewhere. If you were a day late to buy your copies or dragged your feet listing them after they arrived, any margin of profit would have been entirely erased.

Keep in mind too that the buylists almost never move quickly with these sorts of spikes. Vendors know that these are flashes in the pan, and therefore demand will die off rapidly. They aren’t in a rush to buy your Waves of Aggression if they expect that nobody is going to want to buy the card a week later. This means that in order to out your copies you’ll need to go to somewhere like eBay or TCG. While you often sell the cards for more money in those venues, there are also greater transaction costs, greater risk, and they require a larger time investment.

I also notice that the two cards that sustained the largest percentage increases, Disrupting Shoal and Living End, are both free spells. Perhaps the lesson here isn’t to watch what Woo is playing, but rather just to assume any free spell will eventually be broken. (I personally have a pile of Soul Spikes that’s just waiting for the day.)

It’s easy to look at cards like Waves of Aggression spike so hard and wish that you had gotten in on the train, but the stark reality is that it’s nearly impossible to turn a profit from these types of spikes unless you were already holding a pile of copies when it happened. Without copies in-hand on day zero, your best approach to Woo spikes is to observe bemusedly while putting your MTG funbux somewhere more reliably lucrative.


On a separate topic, I’ll be a bit quiet for the next two months. Expect only two articles or so out of me between now and the first of the year. Don’t fret though; I fully intend to return full time in January, hopefully with tales about buying and selling across the sea in Tokyo. I’ll also still be active on Twitter – @wizardbumpin – to the chagrin of all of my followers.


 

The Increasing Savagery Theory

By: Guo Heng Chin

Have you heard of the new turn 2 kill in Modern? Well, the Narset Combo deck is probably not news to most of you anymore. But for those who haven’t heard of it, it is a deck that exploits Goryo’s Vengeance to cheat in the hexproof Narset, Enlightened Master and chain a series of attack phases which results in Enter the Infinite and Omniscience being ‘casted’ with Narset’s ability. It is a Johnny masterpiece designed by Gabriel Jones who handed the list to Travis Woo for maximum exposure. You can read more about it and see it in action here.

The Narset deck may be a bit too wombo combo to be tier one, but it reminded me of a theory proposed by a friend and fellow Magic finance enthusiast about Goryo’s Vengeance while we were discussing if it was worth investing in our own playset of Goryo’s Vengeance:

Goryo’s Vengeance gets better as more legendary creatures are printed. 

Back then in 2012,  when we bought our playsets of Goryo’s Vengeance, it was a $4 card.

Today I am going to discuss how the theory could apply to other cards in similar veins to Goryo’s Vengeance, cards that allows you to cheat-in creatures. This is the Increasing Savagery theory and credit goes to Reza Baharin (@rezaaba on Twitter) for coming up with it. The theory is named after Dark Ascension’s Increasing cycle of cards that get more powerful as the game progresses; likewise the cards the theory attempts to explain increase in potential as more Magic sets are released.

A Lannister Always Pays His Casting Cost. That Doesn’t Means You Must.

Magic is an ever-growing, ever-changing game. When I first started Magic back in the late 90s, a four casting cost 5/5 creature came with a drawback, your opponent’s lands were legit targets and spells were king. In 2014, we have a four mana 5/5 creature with added gatling gun and the majority of Standard archetypes are creature-centric. Meddling with your opponent’s mana base is a no-no, because allegedly land-sadists are in the minority.

Through the years, Wizard’s design paradigm shifted towards encouraging interactivity and board-based game states and creatures are bestowed with a higher power level than those of Magic of yore. Regardless of the changes in Magic’s design priorities, one aspect remained the same throughout Magic’s design history: there are always splashy creatures.

Splashy creatures are monsters that shout ‘Wow!’, be it because they are a big flying spaghetti monster, or they possess some insanely cool ability (double cascade anybody). Splashy creatures usually come with a prohibitive mana cost, for great power is a reward deserved only by those who goes through the pain of assembling the required mana.

Or to those who prefer sneakier methods.

Sneak Attack
Sneak Attack by Jerry Tiritilli

From Lord of the Pit of the days of yore to Eldrazis of today, splashy creatures remain the mainstay of Magic. Their sheer size makes Timmies shudder with excitement, their unique abilities rev up the brew engine of Johnnies and occasionally, reaches through the breach from kitchen table play to the competitive tables of Spikes.

Legendary creatures add to the lot as well. While Wizards does not specifically design legendary creatures in normal sets to appeal to Commander players, legendary creatures are designed to be cool. Plus, the legend rule allows Wizards to push the power level of legendary creature. Characters in Magic’s storyline manifest themselves in cardboard form as legendary creatures or Planeswalkers, and as every Magic set comes with a story, it is a pretty safe assumption that most sets will contain legendary creatures.

Thus the first premise of the Increasing Savagery Theory: the number of splashy and/or legendary creatures increases with the number of Magic sets.

The next premise the theory rests on is that Wizards’ design and development teams are continually inclined to push boundaries for creatures they design, so as to keep players excited for new cards. Sometimes this manifested itself as an undercosted creature. Other times this manifest itself as a creature with an awesome ability counteracted by a prohibitive casting cost, a la Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, Griselbrand and Avacyn, Angel of Hope.

So we can also safely assume that we will continue to see powerful creatures with prohibitive mana costs and this forms the second premise of the Increasing Savagery Theory.

The third premise is pretty straightforward: cards like Goryo’s Vengeance and Through the Breach are only as good as the fatties you can cheat into play with them.

Put all three premises together and you get:

Cards that allow you to circumvent a creature’s casting cost gets better as more Magic sets are released.

Counter Arguments

The counter argument to this theory is that new big game-breaking creatures will displace the current targets for the cheat cards, making the demand for cheat-into-play cards remain relatively stable. Those decklists are tight, and there is no reason to play the old fatties if the new ones are strictly better.

While it is true that better win condition targets would replace the incumbents, the replacement itself could potentially bolster the existing archetype. Prior to Griselbrand, Legacy Sneak and Show decks were running Progenitus alongside Emrakul as Show and Tell fodder five to seven. While Emrakul is susceptible to Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Progenitus to board wipe, Griselbrand provided a strict upgrade to the deck as the big bad demon technically possesses an ETB ability as he grants an extra seven to fourteen cards upon touching the board.

While Show and Tell was already an expensive card at $40 prior to the adoption of Griselbrand, it spiked to mid-$60s in July 2012 when four-of Griselbrands propelled Sneak and Show decks to the next level.

Let me show you my value.
Let me show you my value.

Modern Goryo decks could benefit if a more efficient fatty were to be printed in the future. Say a fatty that comes with a game-breaking enter-the-battlefield ability that does not require you to pay seven life. Modern players take a lot more damage from their manabase compared to Legacy players and sometimes cheating a Griselbrand into play is not enough to turn the board around. Perhaps the a new splashy creature were to be printed that conveniently stays in the graveyard for reanimation purposes.  Perhaps a new fatty negates the need for Fury of the Horde as a win condition, freeing up four slots in the deck for cards to improve the deck’s resilience.

The other counter argument is that the Achilles heel of Modern Goryo decks is the decks’ susceptibility to discard and countermagic rather than a lack of creatures to cheat into play.  That is an issue that the printing of new fatties would not shore, but the printing of new spells might. For example, the addition of Izzet Charm injected an extra dose of consistency into the Griselbrand Reanimator by giving it more dig spells, discard outlet and counter protection.

Furthermore, new fatties or legendaries could instigate new archetypes or twists on existing archetypes; both could potentially increase demand for the cheat-into-play cards that are key to making those decks work. A breakthrough or a bust, the Narset Combo deck supports the Increasing Savagery theory in that it creates another deck that relies on Goryo’s Vengeance. Who knows, perhaps sometime in the near future, a Todd Anderson might pilot a tuned Narset Combo into 11th place at a Grand Prix, or a Jan van der Vegt might add on a few copies of an old, forgotten card and make that deck the talk of the Grand Prix.

Now to the Financial Side

While there are a plethora of cards that allows you to circumvent pesky casting costs, the cards I am going to discuss in this article are cards that are themselves costed low enough to be considered cheating a creature into play (sorry Omniscience, Tooth and Nail) and is not too conditional (sorry Summoning Trap), and Modern-legal (the Legacy ship for cards in this category has long sailed, adios Show and Tell!).

That leaves us with pretty much the cards that are used in the various incarnations of Modern Griselbrand Reanimator: Goryo’s Vengeance, Through the Breach and Fist of Suns. And the oft-overlooked Quicksilver Amulet.

Goryo's Vengeance Chart

Pros: The card that inspired the Increasing Savagery theory and one of the most powerful cards in Modern, Goryo’s act of revenge is the reason why Modern Reanimator decks can execute turn two kills. It is key to the archetype and is likely to be the first card brewers turn to when a new splashy legendary creature is spoiled.

The card contains “Goryo” in its name, is an Arcane spell and Champions of Kamigawa’s popularity mean Goryo is probably not coming back for a vengeance anytime soon.

Cons: Goryo’s Vengeance is the cheat-into-play candidate with the highest chance meeting the banhammer. It also has a pretty hefty price tag at $11. Goryo’s price didn’t really sink the way Fist of Suns’ did when the deck that ran them didn’t top 8 the Grand Prix they were causing so much furore at.

Through the Breach Chart

Pros: Through the Breach  has a flavor-tied name and is also an Arcane spell,  giving it a low chance of being reprinted. It is also ran as a two-of in Legacy Sneak and Show sideboards, which could be another factor pushing its price.

Cons: Like Goryo’s Vengeance, Through the Breach is not exactly cheap to buy in at $11. Well, at least its unlikely to face the hammer anytime soon, so its got that goin’ for it, which is nice.

Fist of Suns Chart

Pros: $5 is a pretty good buy in after its precipitous drop from $12. Fist of Suns is a card that is begging to be broken. It ‘casts’ your fatty as well, so brownie points for synergy with Emrakul.

Cons: Fist is more vulnerable compared with Goryo’s Vengeance and Through the Breach, mainly because you don’t often cast Fist of Suns and use its ability on the same turn, making it susceptible to artifact removal. Plus resolving a Fist does not guarantee the resolution of your beast. Unless it’s Emrakul.

And you’ll need all your colors to abuse this one.

Quicksilver Amulet Chart

Pros: Featured in the latest iteration of Griselbrand Reanimator by Tatsushi Tsukamoto who finished 23rd in the recent Grand Prix Kobe. It is the only truly colorless route to summon a creature without paying the creature’s mana cost. The amulet is currently at $7 and is slowly trending up.

Cons: Probably the weakest cheat card of all the cheat-into-play cards. The Amulet does not grants haste (though you could technically drop the creature at the end of your opponent’s turn) nor does it casts the card, thus missing out on Emrakul’s Time Walk trigger. Quicksilver Amulet also does not see much Commander play. Amulet it may be, but with two printings, this card may not have much room to grow. Nevertheless, I am still surprised to see this once bulkish rare trending at $7.

The Supreme Verdict

The cards that subscribe to the Increasing Savagery theory are long-term investment targets rather than fodder for quick speculation. We do not know when the next innovative tech will emerge to trigger another spike in the price of those cards, but we know that every new set adds to the chance of a breakthrough innovation happening. The Modern cheat-creatures-into-play archetype is one breakthrough away from being tier one.

Goryo’s Vengeance and Through the Breach at $11 are steep, however those cards are likely to increase in value over time as more fatties and legendary creatures enter the card pool. Securing your own playset of those cards now would seem prescient when their next spike comes with the next breakthrough tech. They are cards you could probably take your time to amass rather than going all out right on acquisition now. I would prefer to trade for them rather than buy them outright.

While I am comfortable holding Through the Breach for a long time, I would be inclined to sell Goryo’s Vengeance the next time it spikes. Goryo’s power level is sitting on the borderline of bannable and shall the next iteration of Goryo decks prove to be more resilient than the current lists, the next spike might just be Goryo’s last. Taking a leaf off Travis Allen’s recent article, being too greedy might just result in missing the Treasure Cruise.

If there are any cards on the veins of the Increasing Savagery theory that is worth buying now, it would be Fist of Suns at the paltry $5 it is valued at as of writing. It is a card that is begging to be broken, plus unlike the rest of the Increasing Savagery cards, Fist of Suns could cheat in any spell. Any spell.

While Quicksilver Amulet is just $7 and is gradually climbing in value, I am skeptical about picking it as a good target mainly because it sees little to no play in Modern and casual formats and has multiple printings.

Bonus

Wizards designs cards to synergise with upcoming sets. Mutavault in M14 supported mono-colored Devotion strategies in Theros, and Courser of Kruphix in Born of the Gods works in tandem with Khans of Tarkir fetchlands.

See the Unwritten
Writing on the bones?

Could you see what the future holds for See the Unwritten? Outside of Hornet Queen and Ashen Rider, there aren’t any good See the Unwritten targets in Standard right now. Even Hornet Queen and Ashen Rider are decent targets at best. Powerful, but not Tooth and Nail into Darksteel Colossus powerful.

Dragons of Tarkir is potentially the third set of the Khans block. Call me an optimistic Timmy, but that name sounds like a set that could bring us some sweet, maybe-even-legendary flying fatties. Going back to a time where dragons are aplenty in Tarkir fits right into the time travel story of Khans.

Currently valued at $4.50, See the Unwritten holds a lot of potential. Don’t wait until the dragons return before you see the unwritten value of the card.


 

The Great Modern Uncommon and Common Search – Data Crunching Part 2

By: Jared Yost

Drawing inspiration from my coverage of Khans uncommons and commons, I decided to put together a list that was slightly more… ambitious. I figured, if there was value in deciding which uncommons and commons from the latest set have financial implications, why not look into even more sets for other gems that have maintained or increased in value over the years?

I also wanted to expand a bit more on my work for modern buylist data crunching, which involved seeing which vendors that MTGPrice tracked (I later completed a review of Card Kingdom) offered the highest buylist prices on average. However, some players aren’t really going to care about shopping around – they have a buylist that they use and will continue using that buylist because it is convenient for them rather than always splitting up orders between multiple buylists. So the question becomes, instead of which buylist offers the best prices what are the cards I should be looking out for in general that will sell well to almost any buylist? Odds are you are going to be selling lots of bulk picks to a buylist, so I wanted to see what the most valuable Modern uncommons and commons that go to buylists in general are.

I hope this article will prove useful to bulk pickers, those tireless souls that spend hours upon hours looking through bulk boxes for the gems that the rest of us find useful. If there is enough interest, I can continue tracking the value of uncommons and commons for the remaining older sets in the Magic (barring sets like Alpha, where basically every card is worth $5 or more).

For now though, I think Modern is a good starting point because it is the newest eternal format that is gaining interest again due to the Onslaught fetchlands being reprinted in Khans. There are many uncommons and commons on the list (see appendix) that have popped up in Modern builds over the past year and have gained some value due to being discovered as useful in the format.

However, a large majority of the uncommons and commons on this list have maintained value due to casual demand. Casuals drive a large part of the demand from the market, so when you see cards like Salt Marsh, Zombify, and Mirrodin’s Core being listed on buylists you really shouldn’t be that surprised. As Anthony Capece recapped in a groundbreaking MTG finance piece last November, cards from newer sets are printed in vastly higher quantities than older sets. Starting with Innistrad, the card printers that Wizards contracts to make Magic must have been jumping for joy from the amount of work that Wizards (Hasbro, really) sent their way.

This is also reflected in the pricing data. Before arriving at Innistrad, I could find numerous uncommons and commons from the pre-Innistrad sets that retailed for $0.50 or more on TCGPlayer. The number of post-Innistrad uncommons and commons that retail for $0.50 on TCGPlayer (barring Modern Masters and Conspiracy, of course) are noticeably lower. Khans being the only exception, since the set is so new still that we’ll need a year for the uncommons and commons to be printed into oblivion and decrease in price too.

OK, so you’re probably wondering what trends I’ve found after glancing through that appendix. Let’s first start with the most expensive uncommons and commons by retail price that are legal in Modern. I will refer to as Tier 1 uncommons and commons.

TCGPlayer Retail – Tier 1 Modern Uncommons and Commons

Card Name Set TCGPlayer Value Avg Buylist
Sensei’s Divining Top* Champions of Kamigawa $25.99 $14.78
Aether Vial Darksteel $21.93 $15.64
Aven Mindcensor Future Sight $11.98 $7.50
Remand Ravnica: City of Guilds $11.39 $9.50
Counterbalance Coldsnap $9.67 $6.92
Cursecatcher Shadowmoor $8.36 $4.12
Serum Visions Fifth Dawn $6.97 $4.50
Ghostly Prison Champions of Kamigawa $6.94 $3.46
Flames of the Blood Hand Betrayers of Kamigawa $6.02 $4.20
Lightning Greaves Mirrodin $5.99 $4.00
Dryad Arbor Future Sight $5.99 $3.50
Inquisition of Kozilek Rise of the Eldrazi $5.99 $3.69
Path to Exile Conflux $5.82 $2.95
Path to Exile Modern Masters $5.74 $3.50
Merrow Reejerey Lorwyn $5.50 $2.00
Skullclamp* Darksteel $5.24 $3.92
Heritage Druid Morningtide $5.17 $2.28
Stoke the Flames M15 $4.91 $3.50
Tolaria West Future Sight $4.80 $3.00
Imperious Perfect Lorwyn $4.54 $2.95
Isochron Scepter Mirrodin $4.51 $4.60
Harmonic Sliver Time Spiral $4.25 $3.96
Kitchen Finks Shadowmoor $4.19 $1.91
Kitchen Finks Modern Masters $3.88 $2.05
Might of Old Krosa Time Spiral $3.81 $1.75
Keen Sense Planar Chaos $3.80 $2.00

*Not Modern format legal

Not surprising here is that many of these card are Modern or Legacy tournament staples, such as Sensei’s Divining Top and Aether Vial. However, cards like Ghostly Prison, Lightning Greaves, Imperious Perfect, and Harmonic Sliver are the casual gold I was talking about that usually comes out of these bulk boxes because players focused on tournament play don’t care about them. If you continue on to the next 25 or so cards with higher retail values you will continue to see more casual cards show up in the list. These are your Tier 2 Modern uncommons and commons.

TCGPlayer Retail – Tier 2 Modern Uncommons and Commons

Card Name Set TCGPlayer Value Avg Buylist
Tectonic Edge Worldwake $3.79 $1.00
Hinder Champions of Kamigawa $3.75 $1.30
Silvergill Adept Lorwyn $3.75 $2.00
Smash to Smithereens Shadowmoor $3.66 $2.00
Spell Snare Dissension $3.57 $2.95
Shattering Spree Guildpact $3.50 $2.08
Spell Snare Modern Masters $3.49 $2.25
Gilder Bairn Eventide $3.45 $2.77
Necrotic Sliver Planar Chaos $3.30 $2.31
Shatterstorm 10th Edition $3.25 $1.65
Beseech the Queen Shadowmoor $3.23 $1.50
Ancient Ziggurat Conflux $3.15 $2.27
Sylvan Scrying 10th Edition $3.13 $1.38
Liliana’s Caress M11 $3.00 $1.93
Mind Funeral Alara Reborn $2.99 $2.06
Squelch Champions of Kamigawa $2.93 $1.80
Lightning Helix Ravnica: City of Guilds $2.92 $1.25
Steelshaper’s Gift Fifth Dawn $2.90 $1.03
Lightning Helix Modern Masters $2.89 $1.52
Simian Spirit Guide Planar Chaos $2.86 $1.15
Sylvan Scrying Mirrodin $2.85 $1.22
Mind Funeral Modern Masters $2.85 $1.55
Hedron Crab Zendikar $2.65 $1.50
Sowing Salt Betrayers of Kamigawa $2.59 $0.92
Elvish Promenade Lorwyn $2.59 $1.50
Mishra’s Bauble Coldsnap $2.52 $1.70

 

This list is where we start seeing cards like Hedron Crab and Mind Funeral – cards that might be tournament playable under the right circumstances but really are just popular with casual mill players looking to build sixty card mill decks, using only the best mill cards available from Magic’s history. I can keep going like this, tiering cards out based on price, though again I will emphasize that all of my research is located in the appendix which is the reference that you can use to take a look at the multitude of cards I’ve found.

Instead I would like to showcase the highest buylist prices and lowest spreads that I found. I’ll cover the highest buylist prices out of the data set next.

TCGPlayer Retail – Highest Buylist Modern Uncommons and Commons

Card Name Set TCGPlayer Value Avg Buylist
Aether Vial Darksteel $21.93 $15.64
Sensei’s Divining Top* Champions of Kamigawa $25.99 $14.78
Remand Ravnica: City of Guilds $11.39 $9.50
Aven Mindcensor Future Sight $11.98 $7.50
Counterbalance Coldsnap $9.67 $6.92
Isochron Scepter Mirrodin $4.51 $4.60
Serum Visions Fifth Dawn $6.97 $4.50
Flames of the Blood Hand Betrayers of Kamigawa $6.02 $4.20
Cursecatcher Shadowmoor $8.36 $4.12
Lightning Greaves Mirrodin $5.99 $4.00
Harmonic Sliver Time Spiral $4.25 $3.96
Skullclamp* Darksteel $5.24 $3.92
Inquisition of Kozilek Rise of the Eldrazi $5.99 $3.69
Dryad Arbor Future Sight $5.99 $3.50
Path to Exile Modern Masters $5.74 $3.50
Stoke the Flames M15 $4.91 $3.50
Ghostly Prison Champions of Kamigawa $6.94 $3.46
Tolaria West Future Sight $4.80 $3.00
Path to Exile Conflux $5.82 $2.95
Imperious Perfect Lorwyn $4.54 $2.95
Spell Snare Dissension $3.57 $2.95
Gilder Bairn Eventide $3.45 $2.77
Necrotic Sliver Planar Chaos $3.30 $2.31
Heritage Druid Morningtide $5.17 $2.28

*Not Modern format legal

I wanted to see what the most valuable cards on a buylist were, on average, for Modern uncommons and commons. Yes, Aether Vial and Sensei’s Divining Top made this list again, no surprises there. But did you know some stores are paying $3.50 for Stoke the Flames, an M15 uncommon? That seems like pretty easy money to me there – take out all those Stokes that you drafted during M15 and make a nice bit of cash from them, especially since when it rotates from Standard that price is going to tank really hard. There is no way in the long run that Stoke the Flames has a higher buylist price than Heritage Druid, Imperious Perfect, and Path to Exile.

Something that jumped out to me right away is that Isochron Scepter has arbitrage right now – there is a buylist out there buying Isochron Scepters for more than TCGPlayer retail. Seems like a good time to pick up some Scepters before TCGPlayer retail catches up with the demand. Speaking of which, let’s see from the appendix data which cards have arbitrate opportunities or low spreads.

Arbitrage Opportunities / Lowest Spreads

Card Name Set TCGPlayer Value Buylist Value Spread
Psychotrope Thallid Planar Chaos $0.99 $1.04 -5.05%
Isochron Scepter Mirrodin $4.51 $4.60 -2.00%
Thirst for Knowledge Modern Masters $0.50 $0.50 0.00%
Talisman of Dominance Mirrodin $0.53 $0.50 5.66%
Harmonic Sliver Time Spiral $4.25 $3.96 6.82%
Leatherback Baloth Worldwake $0.68 $0.63 7.35%
Bile Blight Born of the Gods $0.59 $0.53 10.17%
Banishing Light Journey Into Nyx $1.95 $1.75 10.26%
Chromatic Star 10th Edition $1.43 $1.25 12.59%
Pathrazer of Ulamog Rise of the Eldrazi $1.94 $1.69 12.89%
Swarm of Rats 8th Edition $0.75 $0.64 14.67%
Remand Ravnica: City of Guilds $11.39 $9.50 16.59%
Telekinetic Sliver Time Spiral $0.60 $0.50 16.67%
Spell Snare Dissension $3.57 $2.95 17.37%
Electrolyze Guildpact $2.00 $1.65 17.50%
Gilder Bairn Eventide $3.45 $2.77 19.71%
Serra Angel M15 $0.54 $0.43 20.37%
Great Furnace Mirrodin $0.73 $0.58 20.55%
Terminate Alara Reborn $0.99 $0.78 21.21%
Fabricate Mirrodin $1.83 $1.43 21.86%
Lava Spike Champions of Kamigawa $1.49 $1.16 22.15%
Drove of Elves Shadowmoor $1.82 $1.41 22.53%
Molten Rain Mirrodin $1.19 $0.92 22.69%
Spectral Procession Shadowmoor $1.62 $1.25 22.84%
Treetop Village 10th Edition $1.47 $1.13 23.13%
Rift Bolt Modern Masters $1.20 $0.90 25.00%
Skullclamp* Darksteel $5.24 $3.92 25.19%
Genesis Chamber Darksteel $2.40 $1.75 27.08%
Blackmail 9th Edition $1.83 $1.32 27.87%
Ancient Ziggurat Conflux $3.15 $2.27 27.94%

 *Not Modern format legal

I’m betting this is the list that surprised most of you. These are the cards that have arbitrage and the lowest spread out of the entire list. Yes, that’s right – Psychotrope Thallid, a card that I didn’t even know existed, currently has the lowest spread amongst all Modern legal uncommons and commons. Card Kingdom is buying these guys for more than what TCGPlayer is selling on average. Also among the negative spread club are Mirrodin Isochron Scepters which are also being bought by Card Kingdom. Again, these numbers tell me that I should probably pick up some copies of these uncommons in anticipation of a climb in retail price in the future. However, this is definitely much riskier than a rare or mythic rare arbitrage opportunity because a reprint of an uncommon will kill the current price and wipe out the arbitrage.

Bile Blight and Banishing Light seem to be very popular Standard uncommons, so any extras of these you have can be sent back to buylists and give you good value. Random casual uncommons and commons with low spreads include such cards as Talisman of Dominance, Harmonic Sliver, Leatherback Baloth, Pathrazer of Ulamog, Swarm of Rats, Telekinetic Sliver, Gilder Bairn, Terminate, Drove of Elves, and Ancient Ziggurat.

Final Thoughts

Always be on the lookout for hot Modern uncommons and commons. There are certain casually popular uncommons and commons especially that fly under the radar but at the same time are flying off the shelves of game stores around the country (and even the globe!). Picking bulk has always been a good path to gaining value out of your collection, or a recently acquired collection, and I hope that this article shows that value through exhibiting both tournament and casual retail and buylist prices.

Arbitrage is present, however unlike rares and mythics uncommons and commons are much more risky to try and make profits by buying single cards in mass quantities. At any time Wizards could reprint that uncommon or common if the demand is present. Feel free to pick up undervalued uncommons and commons but make sure you time your offloading them correctly.

Finally, here is the appendix I have been referring to throughout the entire article. Please feel free to print it out and reference it the next time you are sit down to pick through Modern bulk.

Appendix

Appendix – Modern Uncommon and Common Master List

 


All pre-Innistrad cards from sets have a TCGPlayer retail value of $0.50 or more. All Innistrad and later set cards have a TCGPlayer retail value of $0.25 or more.

Sets cover Eighth Edition through Khans of Tarkir.

SetCard NameTCGPlayer ValueBuylist ValueSpread
10th EditionChromatic Star1.431.250.12587412587413
10th EditionTreetop Village1.471.130.2312925170068
10th EditionMind Stone0.750.540.28
10th EditionTelling Time0.530.290.45283018867925
10th EditionPrimal Rage1.470.80.45578231292517
10th EditionSoul Warden0.760.40.47368421052632
10th EditionShatterstorm3.251.650.49230769230769
10th EditionWhispersilk Cloak0.690.340.50724637681159
10th EditionSylvan Scrying3.131.380.5591054313099
10th EditionSpark Elemental0.590.260.55932203389831
10th EditionRelentless Rats1.660.730.56024096385542
10th EditionAura of Silence1.940.790.59278350515464
10th EditionRule of Law1.320.480.63636363636364
10th EditionFaerie Conclave10.360.64
10th EditionOrnithopter0.560.090.83928571428571
10th EditionMogg Fanatic0.590.090.84745762711864
10th EditionBlanchwood Armor0.730.090.87671232876712
10th EditionDiabolic Tutor0.650.060.90769230769231
8th EditionSwarm of Rats0.750.640.14666666666667
8th EditionChoke1.340.890.33582089552239
8th EditionUrza's Power Plant1.580.990.37341772151899
8th EditionUrza's Tower1.610.90.44099378881988
8th EditionUrza's Mine1.540.590.61688311688312
8th EditionCoastal Piracy0.560.180.67857142857143
8th EditionStory Circle0.950.30.68421052631579
8th EditionNoble Purpose0.540.170.68518518518519
8th EditionSerra Angel0.510.080.84313725490196
8th EditionMerchant Scroll0.990.150.84848484848485
8th EditionZombify0.590.070.88135593220339
8th EditionFecundity0.560.060.89285714285714
8th EditionCuriosity0.650.060.90769230769231
8th EditionAmbition's Cost0.730.050.93150684931507
8th EditionSalt Marsh0.530.020.9622641509434
9th EditionBlackmail1.831.320.27868852459016
9th EditionSerra's Blessing10.720.28
9th EditionSummer Bloom1.561.090.30128205128205
9th EditionUrza's Mine1.51.030.31333333333333
9th EditionGift of Estates2.491.670.32931726907631
9th EditionUrza's Tower1.7510.42857142857143
9th EditionSwarm of Rats0.970.50.48453608247423
9th EditionUrza's Power Plant1.860.840.54838709677419
9th EditionKird Ape0.980.430.56122448979592
9th EditionSleight of Hand2.4310.58847736625514
9th EditionSeething Song1.090.390.64220183486239
9th EditionSoul Warden0.740.20.72972972972973
9th EditionRewind0.560.090.83928571428571
9th EditionCruel Edict0.580.070.87931034482759
9th EditionZombify0.710.070.90140845070423
9th EditionDiabolic Tutor0.530.050.90566037735849
9th EditionBlanchwood Armor0.530.030.94339622641509
Alara RebornTerminate0.990.780.21212121212121
Alara RebornMind Funeral2.992.060.31103678929766
Alara RebornLorescale Coatl1.811.210.33149171270718
Alara RebornQasali Pridemage1.50.80.46666666666667
Alara RebornMage Slayer1.010.50.5049504950495
Alara RebornBloodbraid Elf1.620.780.51851851851852
Alara RebornWall of Denial1.660.650.60843373493976
Alara RebornZealous Persecution0.840.130.8452380952381
Alara RebornArdent Plea0.880.120.86363636363636
Avacyn RestoredLightning Mauler0.330.090.72727272727273
Avacyn RestoredBlood Artist1.80.480.73333333333333
Avacyn RestoredWolfir Avenger0.30.050.83333333333333
Avacyn RestoredThunderous Wrath0.2901
Betrayers of KamigawaFlames of the Blood Hand6.024.20.30232558139535
Betrayers of KamigawaSosuke's Summons0.520.260.5
Betrayers of KamigawaThroat Slitter1.050.520.5047619047619
Betrayers of KamigawaSowing Salt2.590.920.64478764478764
Betrayers of KamigawaNinja of the Deep Hours0.690.070.89855072463768
Born of the GodsBile Blight0.590.530.10169491525424
Born of the GodsSearing Blood0.920.440.52173913043478
Born of the GodsDrown in Sorrow0.880.420.52272727272727
Born of the GodsSpringleaf Drum0.520.220.57692307692308
Born of the GodsArchetype of Courage0.490.20.59183673469388
Born of the GodsFanatic of Xenagos0.330.050.84848484848485
Born of the GodsRagemonger0.340.050.85294117647059
Born of the GodsKiora's Follower0.2901
Champions of KamigawaLava Spike1.491.160.22147651006711
Champions of KamigawaDesperate Ritual0.790.50.36708860759494
Champions of KamigawaSquelch2.931.80.38566552901024
Champions of KamigawaSensei's Divining Top25.9914.780.43131973836091
Champions of KamigawaGhostly Prison6.943.460.5014409221902
Champions of KamigawaTime of Need0.850.380.55294117647059
Champions of KamigawaHinder3.751.30.65333333333333
Champions of KamigawaKodama's Reach0.770.10.87012987012987
Champions of KamigawaSakura-Tribe Elder0.80.090.8875
ColdsnapCounterbalance9.676.920.28438469493278
ColdsnapColdsteel Heart1.671.160.30538922155689
ColdsnapRite of Flame1.731.20.30635838150289
ColdsnapMishra's Bauble2.521.70.32539682539683
ColdsnapStromgald Crusader2.281.250.45175438596491
ColdsnapMartyr of Sands1.210.490.59504132231405
ColdsnapLightning Storm0.570.20.64912280701754
ColdsnapRune Snag0.790.240.69620253164557
ColdsnapArctic Flats0.830.240.71084337349398
ColdsnapBlizzard Specter0.930.220.76344086021505
ColdsnapFrost Marsh0.940.220.76595744680851
ColdsnapJuniper Order Ranger1.180.190.83898305084746
ColdsnapTresserhorn Sinks0.640.060.90625
ColdsnapBoreal Shelf0.680.060.91176470588235
ColdsnapJötun Grunt0.740.060.91891891891892
ColdsnapKrovikan Mist0.5101
ConfluxAncient Ziggurat3.152.270.27936507936508
ConfluxPath to Exile5.822.950.49312714776632
ConfluxReliquary Tower2.4810.59677419354839
ConfluxHellspark Elemental0.950.240.74736842105263
ConfluxCountersquall0.760.090.88157894736842
ConfluxVolcanic Fallout0.790.090.88607594936709
ConspiracyMortify0.420.270.35714285714286
ConspiracySwords to Plowshares2.271.220.4625550660793
ConspiracyBrainstorm0.980.50.48979591836735
ConspiracyDeathreap Ritual0.260.120.53846153846154
ConspiracyVolcanic Fallout0.30.10.66666666666667
ConspiracySquirrel Nest0.750.250.66666666666667
ConspiracyVictimize0.320.10.6875
ConspiracyBreakthrough0.430.120.72093023255814
ConspiracyFact or Fiction0.550.060.89090909090909
ConspiracySplit Decision0.30.020.93333333333333
ConspiracySakura-Tribe Elder0.3701
Dark AscensionImmerwolf0.420.160.61904761904762
Dark AscensionStromkirk Captain0.470.080.82978723404255
Dark AscensionChalice of Life0.360.060.83333333333333
Dark AscensionThought Scour0.330.050.84848484848485
Dark AscensionDiregraf Captain0.450.050.88888888888889
Dark AscensionLingering Souls0.470.050.8936170212766
Dark AscensionTragic Slip0.410.020.95121951219512
Dark AscensionStrangleroot Geist0.420.020.95238095238095
Dark AscensionDrogskol Captain0.2901
Dark AscensionPyreheart Wolf0.2801
DarksteelSkullclamp5.243.920.25190839694656
DarksteelGenesis Chamber2.41.750.27083333333333
DarksteelÆther Vial21.9315.640.28682170542636
DarksteelCoretapper0.940.430.54255319148936
DarksteelDarksteel Citadel1.470.20.86394557823129
DarksteelMirrodin's Core0.510.050.90196078431373
DarksteelArcbound Crusher0.730.070.9041095890411
DissensionSpell Snare3.572.950.17366946778711
DissensionPlaxcaster Frogling10.50.5
DissensionCoiling Oracle0.940.410.56382978723404
DissensionUtopia Sprawl2.080.760.63461538461538
DissensionTrygon Predator0.990.320.67676767676768
DissensionSimic Growth Chamber1.080.150.86111111111111
DissensionGhost Quarter0.840.10.88095238095238
Dragon's MazeFar // Away0.390.10.74358974358974
Dragon's MazeWear // Tear0.450.10.77777777777778
Dragon's MazeSpike Jester0.270.050.81481481481481
Dragon's MazePutrefy0.430.050.88372093023256
Dragon's MazeUnflinching Courage0.750.070.90666666666667
Dragon's MazeWarleader's Helix0.3901
Dragon's MazeSin Collector0.3201
Dragon's MazeTurn // Burn0.3101
EventideGilder Bairn3.452.770.19710144927536
EventideBatwing Brume0.890.580.34831460674157
EventideSpitemare0.60.310.48333333333333
EventideQuillspike0.840.340.5952380952381
EventideWistful Selkie0.950.340.64210526315789
EventideSlippery Bogle1.420.50.64788732394366
EventideUnmake0.850.250.70588235294118
EventideCrumbling Ashes0.910.260.71428571428571
EventideFlickerwisp1.060.290.72641509433962
EventideVoracious Hatchling0.630.090.85714285714286
EventideNettle Sentinel0.640.080.875
Fifth DawnEternal Witness2.471.750.2914979757085
Fifth DawnSerum Visions6.974.50.35437589670014
Fifth DawnRelentless Rats1.540.90.41558441558442
Fifth DawnKrark-Clan Ironworks2.271.30.4273127753304
Fifth DawnCranial Plating2.241.170.47767857142857
Fifth DawnNight's Whisper1.30.660.49230769230769
Fifth DawnBlasting Station2.31.050.54347826086957
Fifth DawnMagma Jet1.390.610.56115107913669
Fifth DawnEnergy Chamber1.150.50.56521739130435
Fifth DawnGrafted Wargear1.10.40.63636363636364
Fifth DawnSteelshaper's Gift2.91.030.6448275862069
Fifth DawnCondescend0.580.160.72413793103448
Fifth DawnParadise Mantle1.490.240.83892617449664
Future SightAven Mindcensor11.987.50.37395659432387
Future SightTolaria West4.830.375
Future SightDryad Arbor5.993.50.41569282136895
Future SightUtopia Mycon2.191.250.42922374429224
Future SightLlanowar Reborn0.530.190.64150943396226
Future SightEpochrasite0.760.270.64473684210526
Future SightNarcomoeba1.030.350.66019417475728
Future SightStreet Wraith1.530.480.68627450980392
Future SightSword of the Meek1.410.30.78723404255319
Future SightSpin into Myth0.530.10.81132075471698
GatecrashDuskmantle Guildmage0.460.220.52173913043478
GatecrashAlpha Authority0.350.150.57142857142857
GatecrashBurning-Tree Emissary1.30.50.61538461538462
GatecrashVizkopa Guildmage0.270.10.62962962962963
GatecrashSkullcrack1.060.350.66981132075472
GatecrashBoros Charm2.380.470.80252100840336
GatecrashGhor-Clan Rampager0.310.060.80645161290323
GatecrashRapid Hybridization0.810.150.81481481481481
GatecrashExperiment One1.150.190.83478260869565
GatecrashFirefist Striker0.310.050.83870967741935
GatecrashWight of Precinct Six0.430.050.88372093023256
GatecrashSimic Charm0.790.090.88607594936709
GatecrashBoros Elite0.490.050.89795918367347
GatecrashOrzhov Charm0.350.030.91428571428571
GatecrashWasteland Viper0.350.030.91428571428571
GatecrashCartel Aristocrat0.260.020.92307692307692
GatecrashThrull Parasite0.280.020.92857142857143
GatecrashÆtherize0.330.020.93939393939394
GatecrashDimir Charm0.330.020.93939393939394
GatecrashMadcap Skills0.2801
GuildpactElectrolyze21.650.175
GuildpactShattering Spree3.52.080.40571428571429
GuildpactSouls of the Faultless1.450.620.57241379310345
GuildpactMortify0.810.10.87654320987654
GuildpactGelectrode0.890.10.8876404494382
InnistradDelver of Secrets10.550.45
InnistradTrepanation Blade0.310.090.70967741935484
InnistradFull Moon's Rise0.290.070.75862068965517
InnistradReckless Waif0.380.090.76315789473684
InnistradDiregraf Ghoul0.310.060.80645161290323
InnistradMidnight Haunting0.260.050.80769230769231
InnistradInvisible Stalker1.040.190.81730769230769
InnistradIntangible Virtue0.30.050.83333333333333
InnistradGhost Quarter0.330.050.84848484848485
InnistradDissipate0.340.020.94117647058824
InnistradUnburial Rites0.3901
Innistrad***Curiosity0.30.050.83333333333333
Journey Into NyxBanishing Light1.951.750.1025641025641
Journey Into NyxBrain Maggot0.690.350.49275362318841
Journey Into NyxNyx-Fleece Ram2.360.750.68220338983051
Journey Into NyxDakra Mystic0.320.10.6875
Journey Into NyxNyx Weaver0.490.120.75510204081633
Journey Into NyxGnarled Scarhide1.130.250.7787610619469
Journey Into NyxEidolon of Rhetoric0.270.020.92592592592593
Khans of TarkirMonastery Swiftspear1.750.990.43428571428571
Khans of TarkirAbzan Charm0.710.30.57746478873239
Khans of TarkirDespise0.370.150.59459459459459
Khans of TarkirHordeling Outburst0.350.110.68571428571429
Khans of TarkirMurderous Cut0.80.250.6875
Khans of TarkirSandsteppe Citadel0.610.180.70491803278689
Khans of TarkirTreasure Cruise0.340.10.70588235294118
Khans of TarkirSeeker of the Way0.510.130.74509803921569
Khans of TarkirSuspension Field0.270.050.81481481481481
Khans of TarkirNomad Outpost0.50.070.86
Khans of TarkirOpulent Palace0.510.070.86274509803922
Khans of TarkirJeskai Charm0.660.090.86363636363636
Khans of TarkirMystic Monastery0.520.070.86538461538462
Khans of TarkirMardu Charm0.530.070.86792452830189
Khans of TarkirFrontier Bivouac0.570.070.87719298245614
Khans of TarkirWar-Name Aspirant0.310.020.93548387096774
Khans of TarkirStubborn Denial0.330.020.93939393939394
Khans of TarkirSultai Charm0.530.020.9622641509434
Khans of TarkirTemur Charm0.501
LorwynShriekmaw1.510.33333333333333
LorwynImperious Perfect4.542.950.35022026431718
LorwynJagged-Scar Archers1.671.010.39520958083832
LorwynElvish Harbinger1.580.930.41139240506329
LorwynElvish Promenade2.591.50.42084942084942
LorwynSilvergill Adept3.7520.46666666666667
LorwynKnight of Meadowgrain2.251.20.46666666666667
LorwynTreefolk Harbinger1.560.660.57692307692308
LorwynMerrow Commerce1.180.440.6271186440678
LorwynMerrow Reejerey5.520.63636363636364
LorwynPonder0.960.330.65625
LorwynFlamekin Harbinger1.580.430.72784810126582
LorwynVivid Marsh0.610.150.75409836065574
LorwynVivid Creek0.530.10.81132075471698
LorwynVivid Meadow0.610.10.83606557377049
LorwynSpringleaf Drum1.050.160.84761904761905
LorwynVivid Crag0.620.090.85483870967742
LorwynLys Alana Huntmaster0.530.060.88679245283019
LorwynWren's Run Vanquisher0.860.090.8953488372093
LorwynMad Auntie0.70.060.91428571428571
M10Lightning Bolt1.891.360.28042328042328
M10Ponder0.950.410.56842105263158
M10Fabricate1.890.770.59259259259259
M10Relentless Rats1.490.60.59731543624161
M10Soul Warden0.690.140.79710144927536
M11Lightning Bolt1.851.20.35135135135135
M11Liliana's Caress31.930.35666666666667
M11Pyretic Ritual0.950.50.47368421052632
M11Preordain0.710.290.59154929577465
M11Cultivate0.870.240.72413793103448
M11Relentless Rats1.480.20.86486486486486
M11Ajani's Pridemate1.030.130.87378640776699
M11Whispersilk Cloak0.590.020.96610169491525
M12Buried Ruin0.510.340.33333333333333
M12Ponder0.930.380.59139784946237
M12Goblin Grenade0.530.20.62264150943396
M12Spirit Mantle1.680.630.625
M12Swiftfoot Boots0.750.150.8
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M13Rancor1.521.010.33552631578947
M13Reliquary Tower2.491.190.52208835341365
M13Murder0.520.170.67307692307692
M13Jace's Phantasm1.30.370.71538461538462
M13Vampire Nighthawk0.980.240.75510204081633
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M13Fog Bank10.220.78
M13Rewind0.280.050.82142857142857
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M15Stoke the Flames4.913.50.28716904276986
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MirrodinIsochron Scepter4.514.6-0.019955654101996
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Modern MastersThirst for Knowledge0.50.50
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MorningtideHeritage Druid5.172.280.55899419729207
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New PhyrexiaGitaxian Probe2.221.250.43693693693694
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Planar ChaosPsychotrope Thallid0.991.04-0.050505050505051
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Ravnica: City of GuildsRemand11.399.50.16593503072871
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Return to RavnicaShrieking Affliction0.410.250.39024390243902
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Return to RavnicaSelesnya Charm0.430.060.86046511627907
Return to RavnicaGuttersnipe0.390.050.87179487179487
Return to RavnicaIzzet Charm0.630.080.87301587301587
Return to RavnicaUltimate Price0.260.030.88461538461538
Return to RavnicaJudge's Familiar0.850.090.89411764705882
Return to RavnicaAzorius Charm0.740.070.90540540540541
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Rise of the EldraziPathrazer of Ulamog1.941.690.12886597938144
Rise of the EldraziInquisition of Kozilek5.993.690.38397328881469
Rise of the EldraziNot of This World0.860.50.41860465116279
Rise of the EldraziWall of Omens1.420.760.46478873239437
Rise of the EldraziDistortion Strike0.990.420.57575757575758
Rise of the EldraziJoraga Treespeaker1.330.490.63157894736842
Rise of the EldraziSoul's Attendant0.950.330.65263157894737
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Rise of the EldraziHyena Umbra1.270.390.69291338582677
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Saviors of KamigawaHand of Honor0.880.50.43181818181818
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Saviors of KamigawaManriki-Gusari0.970.240.75257731958763
Scars of MirrodinPalladium Myr0.870.330.62068965517241
Scars of MirrodinIchorclaw Myr0.890.330.62921348314607
Scars of MirrodinMemnite1.10.380.65454545454545
Scars of MirrodinExsanguinate1.250.430.656
Scars of MirrodinMyr Galvanizer0.770.070.90909090909091
ShadowmoorDrove of Elves1.821.410.22527472527473
ShadowmoorSpectral Procession1.621.250.2283950617284
ShadowmoorUmbral Mantle1.991.20.39698492462312
ShadowmoorFirespout1.150.650.43478260869565
ShadowmoorSmash to Smithereens3.6620.45355191256831
ShadowmoorShield of the Oversoul1.520.830.45394736842105
ShadowmoorGuttural Response0.940.50.46808510638298
ShadowmoorLeechridden Swamp1.20.60.5
ShadowmoorCursecatcher8.364.120.50717703349282
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ShadowmoorBeseech the Queen3.231.50.53560371517028
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ShadowmoorMurderous Redcap0.910.150.83516483516484
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Shards of AlaraWild Nacatl0.980.30.69387755102041
Shards of AlaraSeaside Citadel1.710.520.69590643274854
Shards of AlaraSavage Lands1.080.240.77777777777778
Shards of AlaraCrumbling Necropolis10.220.78
Shards of AlaraBlightning0.830.180.78313253012048
Shards of AlaraRelic of Progenitus1.290.270.7906976744186
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Shards of AlaraJungle Shrine1.070.190.82242990654206
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Shards of AlaraEtherium Sculptor0.620.070.88709677419355
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TherosMagma Jet0.560.370.33928571428571
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Time SpiralHarmonic Sliver4.253.960.068235294117647
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WorldwakeLeatherback Baloth0.680.630.073529411764706
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ZendikarHedron Crab2.651.50.43396226415094
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ZendikarBrave the Elements0.560.040.92857142857143

 

Circle of Protection: Life

By: Jim Marsh

Introduction: Daring Thief

I was in sixth grade when I was introduced to the darker side of the world of Magic. I sat across from an unfamiliar player in my school library and played a game much like any other. I probably cast a turn one Wall of Wood followed by a Wall of Ice to hold off attackers until I could cast a large threat like Serra Angel or Gaea’s Liege.

During one of my Untap steps a hand reached from behind me and grabbed my library. I turned around and chased down the purported thief. I walked back to my game to find my opponent and the rest of my cards missing. It was not until years later that I came to realize that the thief and my unknown opponent were working together. They would probably get together later and review their haul and split the proceeds between them. 

I thankfully did not own any Power or even those fancy dual lands that everyone was so keen on. I could probably replace what was taken for a couple of twenties at the time but at that age the loss was devastating. We as players form emotional attachments to our decks and as financiers we are keenly aware of the value tied to inked cardboard.

I have often read of tournament reports that were marred by stories of Vintage or Legacy decks that have gone missing or Cube players that do not return every card they drafted either by mistake or design. There have been numerous articles on blogs and websites about natural disasters that devastate homes and leave collectors starting again at square one. We belong to an amazing community and often those articles are followed up with friends and even strangers donating booster boxes, decks and small collections to help them rebuild.

When I am not spell slinging I am an Insurance Agent and so I would like to take an article to describe what we can do as players to protect ourselves from financial and emotional loss.

Collector Protector

The first thing I did after realizing that this was a topic that would interest you was to call up one of my underwriters. In the insurance world your agent will sell you a policy but the underwriter is the one that needs to review it and make sure that the risk is one that the carrier is willing to bind.

I asked the underwriter if they would be willing to insure a large collection of Magic cards. They were aware of them as a vague concept. They thought of baseball cards that you somehow play a game with. They told me that they would be willing to insure a collection of cards that was sitting safely in binders but that if they were used to play games that the risk would be uninsurable. They figured the Wear // Tear of game play would destroy the cards. I had to explain to them about the concept of protective sleeves. This settled them down a little. This underscores the importance of discussing your collection with someone who at least has a basic understanding of the concept of a trading card game.

The first lesson about insurance is that you are responsible for taking all reasonable precautions to protect the asset that you are asking the company to cover. This means that having a bunch of cards sitting in a shoe box may not get the job done. You want everything neatly organized in boxes or binders. I am not saying you need to sleeve every card in your collection but making sure that everything is appropriately stored and organized lets the insurance company feel that you are taking things seriously. I would also keep my collection away from any water sources or out of reach of small children and pets.

Reparations

If you are a homeowner with a mortgage you are required to have home insurance. Many of you apartment dwellers probably have renters insurance policies in place. I am going to discuss policies in general but coverage will vary from company to company and policy to policy so you will want to discuss this with a knowledgeable agent or company customer representative. If you are a vendor or derive a significant portion of your income from the sale of cards you will want to make sure that you have a Business Owner’s Policy in place with coverage for Inventory and Business Property.

Your Basic Home Insurance policy covers the most common causes of loss including theft, fire and accidental discharge or overflow of water. These are probably the biggest risks that you are concerned about. The term Home Insurance can be misleading. The policy will cover your Personal Property anywhere in the world and not just in your home. Keep in mind that your average policy will not cover flood or earthquakes. They get their own specialized policies.

No policy is ever going to cover neglect or intentional loss. You cannot play Rip It or Flip It and send the bill to your insurance company for the foil Tarmogoyf you unwittingly destroyed.

Your policy will list an amount next to Coverage C which is your Personal Property. This number is probably five or six digits. It is easy to look at that and never give it a second thought since you are covered. Keep in mind that this is meant to replace everything you own in the case of a total loss. This is the maximum that they will pay out in a claim situation. The company is more than willing to settle at a lower number if you cannot substantiate the loss that occurred.

If you read through your policy you will notice that there is a section that sets Special Limits for Personal Property. There are certain types of assets that have built in limits in your policy. Collections including stamps, comic books, coins and trading cards are among the types of assets that will normally be included. Most policies will set of limit of  around $1,000 as the maximum payout for any one loss. A single Modern or Legacy deck could max out that coverage and then some!

Catalog

Most of you will want to have your collections listed as Scheduled Property. This is how insurance companies cover Valuable Items. You will want blanket coverage for your collection. The instinct for an insurance agent that is scheduling personal property is to individually list each and every card on the policy. If you own a set of the Power 9 and that is all you care about insuring then this may be reasonable. Chances are that you have a collection that has tens if not hundreds of thousands of cards. Those cards probably range in price from pennies to hundreds of dollars each.

One of the advantages to having Scheduled Property instead of using your Personal Property coverage (in addition to higher available limits) is that you can insure your cards at Replacement Value instead of Actual Cash Value. Actual Cash Value is what you paid for the cards. This can be difficult to determine in some cases if you obtained a card through a trade or opening booster packs. If you have been playing for more than a couple years then you have probably want to cover cards like Sensei’s Divining Top at their fair trade value of $27 instead of the dollar you picked them up for when Champions of Kamigawa was still in Standard. Replacement Cost is how much it costs to replace the item at today’s market price.

The first question you will be asked is the value of your collection and how you calculated that amount. I highly recommend using the My Collection tool available for free on MTGPrice.com. It helps you enter your collection and track the value of your cards. You can both import and export spreadsheets so that you can update the value of your collection once or twice a year.

If a subset of your cards are stolen like your Cube or your Shardless Sultai Deck then decklists will be an invaluable resource to you. If you are anything like me then you have thousands of cards of bulk commons and uncommons laying around. You may not choose to list every copy of Rampant Growth that you have accumulated over the years but listing X thousand cards at $5 per thousand is reasonable and efficient ways to insure larger collections without bogging yourself down in endless minutiae. It is also relatively easy to keep track of a small list of sealed product like Booster boxes of Modern Masters or Innistrad that you are saving for a rainy day.

Order histories and receipts for major purchases can be helpful. I would recommend taking digital photos or a video of your collection. Make sure that you are close enough to the cards that you can easily distinguish the condition of your cards. If your cards are signed or altered then be aware that they will probably be considered damaged. You will want to keep your photographs or video somewhere safe that is not in your home. In the case of a fire it does you no good if your documentation is lost with the collection. Fortunately cloud storage has made this convenient and in many cases free.

High value cards especially those over $1000 may require an appraisal. You will be expected to pay for this yourself but unless you are holding Power or a Splendid Genesis then you will probably not have to worry about this part. This  will vary based upon the requirements of the insurance company that you are working with.

The cost of adding this coverage to your existing policy or getting a separate policy will obviously vary based upon the amount of coverage that you are purchasing but prices can range from the price of a draft a month to several hundred dollars a year.

Wake of Destruction

In the case that something is stolen or destroyed then the first thing you want to do is to document the loss. In the case of theft call the authorities and file a police report. This may not result in a grizzled detective canvassing the town and hunting down justice by any means necessary but it will provide paperwork showing that you have taken all necessary steps to potentially recover your property. The police and claims adjustor will want a detailed list of what was taken and having a handy spreadsheet will be infinitely more useful than a pencil and notepad after the fact. Emotions will be running high and you may not be able to remember if you traded away three or four Jittes for fetchlands earlier this year. I would also contact your local game store owner and let them know to be on the lookout for someone looking to sell a deck or cube that is identical to your own.

I spoke to a number of insurance companies in preparation for this article and one thing that surprised me was the number of underwriters who feel hesitant to take on new business of this kind due to fraudulent claims in the past. This is where your photos and videos will be worth their weight in gold. It is an unfortunate reality of the insurance industry but due to fraud Adjustors have to treat every claim as a potential crime against the company until you can prove how honest and trustworthy you are. As I said before during a loss you can feel hurt and vulnerable so having an Adjustor call and cross examine you in a half accusing tone can be very jarring and upsetting. The sooner you produce your evidence and they figure out that you are not trying to pull on over on them then the sooner the mood will lighten and checks can be approved.

Fiery Conclusion

Hopefully nothing does happen to your valuable collection. I know you have put in a lot of time, effort and memories into your cards. I hope that this was helpful and informative. Part of good Magic finance is protecting what we do have in an unpredictable world. If do follow this advise you will be able to breathe a little easier in the knowledge that if something happens to your cards then you will be able to rebuild and replace what you have lost. I know that this covers a lot of generalities but the ultimate details will be determined by your insurance provider of choice. This will vary from country to country, company to company and even across different policies depending on your endorsements and ultimately will be up to the Claims Adjustor that is assigned to you. This should at least leave you better equipped to start the conversation with your agent and to be prepared in case anything happens. I am open to any questions below and will do my best to give you as accurate and answer as possible without offering guarantees that I cannot substantiate.

I also want to take this time to announce that my time writing about the game we all love has come to a close for the current time. I have loved the opportunity to discuss cards with you and have enjoyed tremendous support from everyone here on the site. It has been a blast. However real life is making great demands on my time and I find myself having to make sacrifices to meet those demands. I wish everyone well as you embark on an exciting new metagame.

EDITOR’S NOTE: We’ll miss you Jim! Our sincere thanks for all your hard work and excellent articles! (AY)

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MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY