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Weekend Update for 7/26/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

10 Big Winners of the Week

10. Walk the Aeons (Time Spiral)
From $4.19 to $4.69 (11.93%)

If there is one thing that players like doing it is taking an extra turn. There is always casual demand for effects like this and Walk the Aeons has a special place since it has buyback.

If you have enough mana and lands you can theoretically take infinite turns. Azusa, Lost but Seeking and Crucible of Worlds can allow you to go infinite if you can keep them both in play.

Sometimes fun casual interactions are tinkered with to create fringe competitive decks.

Both Monoblue and Simic Time Walk decks have been played but have yet to have much success.

Every time an extra turn effect gets printed this deck edges towards playability.

The buyback mechanic is powerful but leads to monotonous play. Walk the Aeons is the perfect example of the danger of such cards so I do not think that it is likely to be reprinted.

These are cheap enough that getting a couple play sets will not break the bank. Casual appeal should help them hold value if not increase over time.

I would also take a look at Beacon of Tomorrows and Time Stretch.

9. Ajani Goldmane (M10)
From $8.57 to $9.85 (14.945)

Ajani is getting a lot of attention right now. There are three versions in standard. This is not one of them.

It has a lot of casual appeal since it is helpful for decks that are focused on lifegain or tokens.

This lets it be included in some builds of Modern Soul Sisters.

It has been printed three times so far so there is a decent amount of stock available.

Ajani’s storyline is focused on protecting others right now so I do not think it will get reprinted for a while. I suspect this will be a slow gainer until that time.

8. Wrath of God (8th Edition)
From $6.12 to $7.12 (16.34%)

Wrath of God will always be the definitive mass removal spell. It takes me back to when my friends and I were playing Revised.

It is still used today in a wide variety of modern and casual decks.

It may have some competition from Supreme Verdict if both blue and white mana are available but it is still going to be in the sideboard or main deck in any good control deck.

Its price been a little depressed since the release of Commander 2013. It was reprinted yet again in the Naya Commander deck. You would recognize it from every Walmart and Target shelf you have visited lately.

It has started recovering its price.

The vendors have started adjusting their price and that has caused some disparity.

You can buy them for $4.39 and sell them for $4.80.

7. Teferi’s Puzzle Box (9th Edition)
From $2.56 to $2.99 (16.80%)

Store have been stocking twice as much Mind Seize as the other Commander 2013 products. It is not hard to see why. People rush home sell the True-Name Nemesis and have a subsidized Nekusar, the Mindrazer deck.

Every good Nekusar deck needs wheel effects that cause everyone to draw a lot and take heaps of damage.

Teferi’s Puzzle Box has gone from bulk rare to $3.00 on the strength of this commander alone.

After the numerous printings that the Puzzle Box has gone through I do not see it climbing much higher. You should be trading these away to any friends who are fine tuning their Nekusar deck.

6. Reaper King (Shadowmoor)
From $2.74 to $3.21 (17.15%)

As much as I would love to say that scarecrow tribal has finally happened the biggest contributing factor to Reaper King’s price is its mana cost.

It is played in a fringe Legacy Blazing Infect Deck.

It will drop a quick Glistener Elf or Blighted Agent. Reaper King or Progenitus can be exiled to Blazing Shoal to create a lethal threat. They can both be fed to Force of Will as well to protect the combo.

Reaper King is used as a full four copies which is the most attention it has ever received. Reaper King can also come down as a threat for as little as five mana if things are going wrong. Progenitus likely never be cast.

These are cheap and the people with them in their binders have probably been sitting on them since Shadowmoor. You should be able to get these as toss ins if you ask nice enough.

5. Galerider Sliver (M14)
From $2.20 to $2.60 (18.18%)

This will probably be the peak for Galerider Sliver. Mono-Blue Devotion is probably on its way out at rotation and the resurgence of slivers will only be for the next few months.

I do not want to suggest that Galerider Sliver will ever get to be a bulk rare because the casual appeal alone will keep it around a $1.00 to $1.50 but unless something drastic happens soon I do not think it is getting any higher.

On the bright side you can still get them for $1.50 and sell them for $1.67 which means you at least have a good way to unload any that you have have lying around.

4. Flames of the Blood Hand
From $1.73 to $2.06 (19.08%)

Burn decks have been performing rather well in legacy and several Modern players have been trying to translate those decks to their format of choice.

Mono-Red Burn is always a popular choice. Flames of the Blood Hand is a great way to answer Archangel of Thune and Spike Feeder or Melira and Kitchen Finks.

There are several variations on Burn being brewed with none have really seen very much success recently.

This type of card is always a welcome find in collections as people tend to value them as bulk but I would not actively trade for them unless you want to play with them.

I would not be too hasty to trade away your Skullcracks as they fill a similar role and can be played a turn earlier.

3. Suppression Field (Ravnica)
From $1.82 to $2.32 (27.47%)

Suppression Field is the quintessential sideboard card. It is backbreaking in certain matchups and utterly useless in others.

The nice thing is that it is highly underestimated since it was printed as an uncommon. I find these in bulk all of the time and I am always happy to see them.

It is currently used in several modern sideboards including Bogles, Soul Sisters and Boros Burn decks.

These can be found for $1.38 and sold for $1.55.

Sideboard cards only hold their value as long as they are the most efficient way to deal with the threat or while the threat is a significant part of the anticipated meta game. I would move these.

2. Blackmail (9th Edition)
From $0.81 to $1.22 (50.62%)

How many one mana discard spells do you need?

Blackmail has seen some use in Modern Monoblack Infect alongside the usual suspects like Thoughtseize, Duress and Inquisition of Kozilek.

I suspect the recent release of Waste Not has led rogue deck builders to put together their brews in hopes of free mana, card draw and zombies.

Any deck running discard has a lot of choices at one mana. This would not even crack my top five.

If you have copies of Blackmail or Waste Not I would trade into the hype.

1. Hero of Iroas (Born of the Gods)
From $0.48 to $1.14 (137.50%)

Hero of Iroas has some potential. It has had a chance to shine in Theros Block Constructed Heroic decks including Azorius and Boros variants. The ability to toss a couple of Ordeals or Fate Foretold at the bargain price of a single mana can lead to some explosive starts.

With rotation coming soon Theros block decks can give us a clue to potential Standard decks once the doors have closed on Return to Ravnica.

It is very vulnerable to removal like Hero’s Downfall or Silence the Believers.

This is still a bulk rare but the sudden surge of interest does give us an opportunity.

You can buy the Hero for as little as $0.49 and sell it for $0.80.

That makes it a Hero in my book.

5 Big Losers of the Week

5. Lighthouse Chronologist (Rise of the Eldrazi)
From $9.58 to $8.60 (-10.23%)

We discussed earlier casual appeal of Time Walk effects. They tend to exhibit slow but steady growth.

It may be that we are finally getting over-saturated with them. Lighthouse Chronologist requires a total investment of nine mana before it does anything. That is almost Time Stretch mana.

I think that this will drop to $6.00.

4. Courser of Kruphix (Born of the Gods)
From $16.83 to $15.05 (-10.58%)

Has Courser of Kruphix hit its peak?

It has been seeing lots of play in Standard, Modern and Legacy decks.

It still has a full year in standard and it is doing well in block.

What happened? It had a double whammy.

M15 included a reprint of Back to Nature which pretty much dares people to try and play constellation.

More importantly it was reprinted in the M15 Clash Pack. I see Courser dipping down to the $10 range.

It is still powerful but it is now readily accessible.

3. Fist of Suns (Fifth Dawn)
From $7.32 to $6.34 (-13.39%)

Fist of Suns has become nearly synonymous with a baseless price spike.

A rogue deck was built using Fist of Suns to cheat out powerful creatures like Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or Griselbrand.

It could also use Goryo’s Vengeance or Through the Breach to get these monstrosities attacking.

The deck never really developed. A lot of people bought into Fist of Suns due to the hype.

There is a slight silver lining. You can still buylist your Fists for $4.01. This is not bad considering you can still purchase them for $3.96.

Hopefully you did not pay more than $4 for them.

2. Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni (Betrayers of Kamigawa)
From $6.83 to $5.89

Ink-Eyes, Servant of Oni is a personal favorite of mine. It has casual appeal since it is a ninja and it can be used to reanimate creatures from your opponent’s graveyard.

It has been reprinted in Planechase and From the Vault 20.

Most players are cracking their From the Vault for Jace, the Mind Sculptor. That leaves a lot of leftover rats.

Its supply has increased but demand is not really growing with it.

1. Kokusho, the Evening Star (Champions of Kamigawa)
From $12.54 to $10.28 (-18.02%)

Kokusho has seen better days. He used to dominate standard and extended.

There are just much more exciting fatties these days.

He was reprinted in Modern Masters which has not helped his price.

He is still powerful in Commander and multiplayer casual games. He no longer has the competitive demand that he used to have.

If you are sitting on these waiting for a recovery then you have several years to wait. It would move these.

Casual Fridays

The Pattern of Growth

By: Cliff Daigle

In the past couple of weeks, I and others have shared with you some advice on Theros block cards that are likely to go up during Khans of Tarkir block this coming fall/winter.

We aren’t basing these cards on pure chance, but on a series of previous cards that have hit a low as their block ended, then rose during the next.

Let’s go over a few of these so you can see trends to look for. I’ll be using the initial price, the 9-month price, the 14-month price, and the 2-year price. We are almost to that two-year mark, and as we get closer, prices will go even lower as the card prepares to rotate out of Standard.

Remember, all you have to do is set the slider to look into a card’s financial past.

Jace, Architect of Thought
Initial: $40
9 months: $8
14 months: $25
2 years: $5

While this cards exemplifies the trend I’m talking about, it’s far from the only one. As a planeswalker, Jace 4.0 had a high initial and preorder price, which lowered over the course of the block. He was an easy pickup at $8, and when he spiked, there was a lot if money to be made.

Desecration Demon
Initial: $3
9 months: $3
14 months: $10
2 years: $2

Pack Rat
Initial: $1 or less
9 months: $1 or less
14 months: $6
2 years: $2

desc dem

Both of these cards, as well as Underworld Connections, benefited from the rise of black devotion decks, and the reach of Gray Merchant of Asphodel. Pack Rat was a bulk rare, notable only for how impossible it was to beat in Draft or Sealed formats. Demon’s price was often lower than $3 because of the tokens everywhere his first year, especially off of Lingering Souls.

When these two hit, they hit big. They are back to a low price now because there’s no home for them in Modern, and there isn’t enough casual appeal to maintain the high price. Remember, you always want to sell into the hype. Don’t get greedy. If your $2 card hits $7 on buylists, sell or trade them all. Don’t agonize over feeling like you might miss more profit–take your profit and be happy. Just look back at Jace, AoT. He spiked then trickled down for months.

Supreme Verdict
Initial: $5
9 months: $3
14 months: $8
2 years: $4

I don’t have a lot of money to speculate with. I prefer to trade, not purchase, but when I have a dozen that I traded for at $3 get to a buylist price of $5, that’s a really good feeling. There’s a chance this starts creeping back up, because Modern might utilize this over Wrath of God. Keep in mind that this was the buy-a-box promo, so the supply is slightly higher for casual players.

Domri Rade
Initial: $15
9 months: $10
14 months: $30
2 years: $9

Domri, as a three-drop planeswalker, has mountains to climb. Cheap ‘walkers can rarely protect themselves, but he can grind out advantages, and his interaction with Courser of Kruphix led to his abrupt spike. It’s amusing to me how much this and Xenagos both want to be in all-creature decks!

Nightveil Specter
Initial: $2
9 months: $2
14 months: $10
2 years: $3

This was another card that went crazy with the premiere of the Devotion mechanic. It fit into the mono-black AND the mono-blue lists, both of which surged in popularity, and are still among the top archetypes. Being the Release promo didn’t make a difference to the price at all, something to keep in mind when a card is spiking.

Notable about this card is that there was a window between devotion being spoiled and this card exploding. This is why spoiler season brings out all the speculators, for good or ill. Boros Reckoner hasn’t made the same sort of impact, mainly due to the colors. Blue wants Thassa to be a creature and Master of Waves to make lots of tokens. Black wants the biggest Gray Merchant of Asphodel effect. Red does have the Fanatic of Mogis interaction, but that hasn’t proven to be as strong.

Mutavault
Initial: $15
6 months: $35
1 year: $25

These last two cards, being part of Core Sets, have a shorter time in Standard, but the curve is apparent. Started low (especially for being a reprint of a $40 card) then got very high as all sorts of decks started including the best ‘man-land’ ever, and is trickling downwards as we near rotation. It sees some Modern and Legacy play, mainly in tribal decks, but not enough to justify too high a price.

It’s a tribute to the consistency of Temples and shocklands that three-color control decks would run a few of these, often as an answer to opposing Mutavaults, but wow. Colorless lands in a three-color deck!

Archangel of Thune
Initial: $30
6 months: $15
9 months: $35
One year: $15

arch thu

There has been a real rollercoaster on this card in the past year.  As a mythic of a very popular tribe, her price is never going to be very low, especially at a measly five mana. She spiked when control decks boarded her in, a threat that grows and gains you life, and tricks with Mutavault help too.

These are only a few examples. There are historical ones too, but we need to keep an eye on what Magic is now, especially in terms of the number of cards printed.

I hope this helps you think about and identify the same trend in Magic 2015 and Khans of Tarkir!

Casual Fridays

The Beginning of the Fall

By: Cliff Daigle

Welcome to Magic 2015!

Last week I went over some prices from this set, where I’d expect them to settle out.

This week, I want to note some current prices and start to track how fast they fall. They will almost all fall, because the release of a set will allow the mass cracking of packs, to fill preorders and stock inventory. Buylists also kick in, and let me say this clearly: if you open something amazing, trade it or buylist it ASAP. I opened a Sun’s Champion on release weekend and buylisted it for $25 cash.

So if you crack a Chain Veil, you’re going to get more for it this weekend than you are for quite a while. Trade it to that person who’s dying for it. Don’t be afraid to call it out in a store, seeking that person who wants it SO BAD!

Nissa, Worldwaker ($37) – The midweek spike on Nissa indicates that someone, or a group of someones, has decided that the preorder/prerelease price on her was too low. If this is due to testing for the Pro Tour in August, or some Standard combination of cards. (She is pretty amazing with shocklands…) We don’t know what the motivation is for this spike, but it’s happened very quickly, since the stock on this card is currently very low. We are about to get a lot more available, though, so unless she takes over quickly, her price will lower again.

Garruk, Apex Predator ($25) – The eBay price on this card has dropped about $10 in the past weeks, and at seven mana I don’t think he will be more than a two-of in decks that can play him. It is worth mentioning that in the right deck, Nissa can get Garruk out on turn four without working too hard. His price probably won’t go much below $20, from people who like playing lots of planeswalkers.

Ajani Steadfast ($15) – Here is the problem with this Ajani: at four mana, he requires others to protect him. Without other creatures, he is likely to die quickly and have no lasting effect on a game. His decline will be thorough, barring something very unusual.

Jace, the Living Guildpact ($12) – While this Jace isn’t quite as powerful as some of his brothers, his ultimate is something everyone wants to do. He starts at five loyalty, and it can go up to six immediately on turn four. That’s a lot of damage to do quickly, and if needed, his bounce is expensive but useful. Putting a card in a graveyard appears to be something that the next block will care about, so that sort of speculation will keep him from going more than a couple bucks cheaper.

Sliver Hivelord ($12) – The downward trend has begun for a card that was preordering at $15. I would expect to see the price climb a little as Sliver EDH players scramble this week to get their singleton, and after that demand is met, there’s nowhere to go but down.

Chord of Calling ($11) – Even if there’s a Standard deck that starts playing this, it’s a core set rare. There will be lots and lots of these in circulation, and it needs to be a rather ubiquitous card (like Mutavault this past year) for such cards to keep a price. It sees some Modern play, but probably not enough to see a price increase. It will get to $7-$10 before long.

Soul of New Phyrexia ($10) – Yes, it has a neat activated ability, but this is no Aetherling. To play it and keep the ability open is going to cost 11…and won’t protect from Banishing Light and the like. The price will drop by half.

Perilous Vault ($7) – I suspect that this card won’t go much lower. It’s too good and too scarce to stay in the $5 range. This will be the bane of many Commander games, but considering how easy it is to build a graveyard recursion deck, perhaps this is for the best.

Waste Not ($7) – Dump it now. This will be lucky to stay at $2.

Hushwing Gryff ($3) – Let me talk you out of hoarding this card, looking at it like it is Aven Mindcensor‘s second coming. The Aven is a $10 uncommon because of the set it was in and the number in circulation. We don’t get the specific numbers, but a Magic 2015 rare is probably lots and lots more common than a Future Sight uncommon, solely due to the number of cards printed and players who open packs. The Gryff is not going to hit $10 based on Modern appeal, and I don’t want to hear any more Mindcensor comparisons.

City of Traders

Unobtanium

5 Comments

By: Travis Allen

I started playing Magic in 1993 or 1994; I forget which. I was young, as most of us would have been back then. This was the era when people unironically spoke of uncles that worked for Nintendo and Sega and claimed knowledge of special cheat codes that would make the characters in Mortal Kombat strip off their clothes. We played Magic at lunch mostly. Unsleeved decks with wildly imbalanced mana:spell ratios. I’m positive the decks were of no particular size. Card selection rarely moved beyond “all my green cards and black cards.”

What was amazing about this time was the total lack of information. The term “big data” is thrown around so much at academic conferences these days that it’s become embarrassing to genuinely use the term. In 1993 though, you knew nothing beyond your local playgroup. On the rare occasion that someone somehow obtained more cards, perhaps receiving a single booster pack as part of their birthday gift, you poured over them eagerly excited to see what other pieces of this giant puzzle existed. It really was a sensation that is so difficult to capture these days. It’s probably why I enjoy Dark Souls so much. It captures much of the “I have no idea what is happening and I love it” sensation from days past.

To this day I find I carry a strong visceral reaction to certain cards. It’s difficult to describe. Leviathan is probably the single card that best captures my memories of the game. Looking at the image on magiccards.info doesn’t really do it for me. I need to hold the cardboard in my hand. Copies from The Dark work best. When I grasp that card and gaze into it, attempting to lose myself in it’s aesthetic, I experience flashes of nostalgia that I can’t get manage anywhere else. Sometimes it’s the white font against the blue background, readability not a part of the lexicon of design back then. Perhaps it’s the way the tail disappears back behind the lighthouse, perplexingly descending from the clouds in a manner incongruent with your expectations a giant sea creature. It may be the offset mana symbols due to less printing oversight or the contrast between the ancient frame and the faded black border.

Regardless of what element of the card catalyzes these flashes of buried nostalgia, I find myself drawn to the original border. It is an icon of days faded, forever imbued with character and design flaws and mystery. The new border is fine, yes. It’s cleaner, easier to read, and meshes better with advancing mechanics. But it will never have the mystique and history of the original border. Whenever people tell me they prefer the new border I always feel a little sad for them, halcyon memories of childhood inaccessible with a simple piece of cardboard.

The result of all of this is that I acquire foil old border cards wherever possible. They help capture part of the magic of Magic for me. Mixing the history of the original border with the luxury of foils is my favorite way to collect. When was the last time you saw a mint foil card from any of the old sets? They are brilliantly shiny in a way that new foils completely lack. Some of the most beautiful Magic cards in existence are old border foils. (Henceforth OBFs.)

Normally when a new set comes out I’ll scan the spoiler for reprints, see if they had an older printing, and grab foil copies where possible. Off the top of my head I’ve got full or partial sets of Lay of the Land, Ray of Revelation, Llanowar Elves, Lightning Bolt, Last Breath, Worldly Counsel, and Naturalize.

When M15 was spoiled my process was no different. As soon as I saw the painlands I took to TCGPlayer to scoop up my foil Apocalypse copies. Let me tell you, “painland” could not be more appropriate.

Capture

Oof. $30+ apiece for a land legal in Standard for a single year that I may never actually have the chance to put into play. The worst part of this is that they aren’t getting any cheaper. Ever.

Possibly the most rock-solid place to invest your MTG funbux are OBFs. They may not rise quickly or often, but it is virtually impossible for them to get cheaper. No matter the card, copies will be limited by today’s standards. If they’re reprinted, the new copies will be in a different border, placing no strain on the original copies. Heck, as we can see with the painlands, reprinting of old cards actually makes the foils rise. Suddenly those foil Apocalypse Battlefield Forges that were listed at $6 forever are Standard legal and worth $20+ apiece.

Nearly every OBF is a great pickup simply because they have nowhere to go but up. Have a playset of foil UZD Yavimaya Elders? Great, it’s worth $60. If they get judge promo’d know how much your set of UZD ones would be? $60. If they get printed at common in M16 know how much your set of UZD ones would be? $100+, easily.

Demand for OBFs is not rooted in playability, but collectability and luxury. People collect them because they’re beautiful and original and unique, not because they need them to play a tournament. M11 Lightning Bolts are a buck. The only OBF of the card is $250. This is really what makes them the bastion of value that they are. It would be incredibly difficult for Wizards to print something that would devalue these cards. You think the Onslaught foils of Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are expensive now? Wait until they show up in a fall set.

All of this leads to a simple but painful conclusion. The best time to buy an OBF is now. Whether you’re reading that sentence on 7/23/14 when this article goes live or three years down the road in 2017, it is still accurate. This conclusion is painful because many of these cards are already astronomically expensive. Those ONS foil Flooded Strands are $300, but the fact of the matter is that they aren’t getting cheaper. If you want them, acquire them sooner than later. This time next year one of two things will be true. They’ll either still be $300, or they’ll be $500+ because they were announced for the fall set. The one thing that won’t happen is that they’ll be less than they are today. Maybe you’ll be in better economic standings next year so you decide to wait, but just remember that you’re playing chicken with a train that you can’t see coming.

The absolute best place to go of course is actual reserve list OBFs. Reserve list cards are already gold, and grabbing OBFs – of which by my quick and almost assuredly inaccurate count there are under thirty – is icing on the cake. Just start at the end of this list and work your way backwards. What are some of the best choices?

Replenish – EDH staple and Legacy combo piece. Just because it’s not busting Legacy open right now doesn’t mean it can’t down the road.

Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary – Absurdly powerful legendary creature in one of the most popular tribes of all time? Can’t go wrong.

Metalworker – Inspires entire combo decks in Legacy and enables shenanigans in EDH.

Academy Rector – Another dormant Legacy combo piece that’s also popular both in EDH and casual circles.

Palinchron – EDH staple and generator of infinite mana.

Grim Monolith – EDH staple, Legacy and Vintage busted mana acceleration.

Deranged Hermit – Possibly the wackiest OBF on the reserve list. He’s the godfather of a silly beloved tribe that will always have a place in the heart of a subset of players. 

Old border foils are some of the most visually striking and iconic cards in the game. Their supply is miniature and chances of price surges reasonable. If reprinted they will gain value, not lose it.The worst case scenario for any of them is that Wizards reprints them in the original border ala Timeshifted cards, but even in that case it would merely slow their growth, not decrease their value. If you’re like me and you love the look of old border foils, now is the time to start buying. It’s painful, but it’s only going to get worse.

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