Applying Statistical Analysis to the Modern B&R List Announcement

By: Camden Clark

There is a term in economics called “Head and Shoulders.” It is a way of evaluating a chart to predict an upswing in the prices of a stock or commodity. This is better described with a picture:

Gyazo

Here there are two shoulders and a head. There is an initial upswing that signifies the “left shoulder.” After this initial rally, prices decrease again to a reasonable reentry point. After prices decrease, there would be a second major rally where prices increase dramatically past the left shoulder point. This rally is called the head. After the peak of the head, people sell out. Finally, there is a third rally called the right shoulder.

How does this relate to magic finance?

It’s simple, we can use the same analysis to see how the secondary market reacts to events. This statistical method can help us see when cards are going to go up even more than they did at first, and at what price to buy in.

This has the most applicability to the recent modern changes. The banned and restricted announcement caused a mass run up on certain cards, one of them being Mistbind Clique. I do not think that these run ups are now the baseline prices. We will see a dip as there isn’t the REAL demand for these cards.

What do I mean by real demand? The kind of demand generated by players, not speculators.
When there is an unbanning like this, there are a ton of speculators who don’t want to hold these cards for the medium to long term as players, they simply want to generate a profit. This causes a bandwagon effect where prices of cards skyrocket to levels previously unseen.
The special thing about unbannings is that the pros haven’t been able to showcase decks that real players want to play. Real players haven’t seen “that deck” that has one of the unbanned cards. As a result, when the speculators sell out after making a profit, there is little real demand for those cards at those prices. As a result, the prices drop dramatically, waiting to rally when “that deck” shows up.

So where do pros showcase their decks?

At the pro tour of course.

Want some real proof of this?

The only unbanning we’ve had in recent years in Modern was Valakut, The Molten Pinnacle. Cards that had very specific interactions with Valakut but weren’t really playable otherwise were now VERY playable. These cards are ones like Scapeshift and Prismatic Omen. Let’s take a look at the graph of Scapeshift.

Scapeshift

Brilliantly, we can see a textbook head and shoulders formation. After the B&R announcement, there was a quick run-up on Scapeshift. This represents the left shoulder. In the weeks after the run up, prices decreased by almost 40%, only to increase back up to the point where the left shoulder left off. That represents the head. The price decreased again back down to the bottom level. After that, there was another rally around this card, and there was another run up. This was the right shoulder. This was on a narrow card like Scapeshift, which has little utility outside of the Valakut ramp deck. Prismatic Omen, unfortunately, did not follow this pattern. Let’s take a look:

Prismatic Omen

I can formulate some reasons why this card did not have the same potential for a rally:

  • Was only a 2 of in a narrow deck.
  • Some versions of the deck didn’t even run this card

What can we formulate from the lesson of Prismatic Omen? Don’t focus in on narrow cards. Cards that are targeted should be a four-of in a deck. They should be playable in many decks for risk prevention.

Now that we’ve looked at history, let’s look at the current cards. What would I recommend targeting around the pro tour?

First, go with your gut. I know I’m more focused on statistical analysis. But as magic players, we all have that sense of what’s “good” or not (some of us more than others). You should pay close attention to the Pro Tour coverage. This provides you with a literally instant way to find things to speculate on. Watch the match-ups.

The buzz factor is also important. Watch all the relevant hashtags. I like to watch #mtgfinance, #mtg and #mtgo. There are a few others, and there will be a pro tour hashtag to watch. (#PTBNG -ed) Listen to LSV. Listen to Travis Woo. Follow Michael Hetrick on Twitter. People with THAT kind of name power can really move cards. That’s how real demand is generated. People see their favorite pros playing or talking about a deck or card, and THEY want to get their hands on that card. Speculators generate a sort of artificial demand for cards to run up the prices. The lasting profit will come from people who actually play modern, or are looking for cards for the PTQ season in the summer.

This is also the time to make some long term bets. We are looking at cards that have the potential to double or triple by PTQ season. These are mostly cyclical.

What would I be paying very close attention to?

Restoration Angel

Restoration Angel

This card is TOO cheap. There is little reason this card should be five dollars with how much play it will see in Modern in the next season. The (un)bannings have provided an opportunity for Restoration Angel. I could see a UWB or WB deck with Bitterblossom and this card. I wouldn’t move on it now. I want to see proof of this card seeing play. Regardless, five bucks is the absolute floor for this card. I don’t see it reasonably going down AT ALL. This is low-risk, possibly high reward. It sees play in Commander and Cube, so there’s some potential for long term growth. Keep your eye on this.

Mistbind Clique

Mistbind Clique

I think the spike on this card is unwarranted. Many others feel the same way. There’s going to be a major sell off for the next couple of days. Look at the hilariously high buylist prices.

Mistbind Clique

A selloff is in order. Speculators are the only people who were actually buying into this hype. Over the next two weeks coming up to the pro tour, they will start selling off after getting in on the ground floor. I’d put this at a hard WATCH. Pay attention to what pros are saying about this card. If you think that there’s enough hype around it coming into the Pro Tour, it’s reasonable to move in on this one. Sell into the pro tour hype.

This is exactly what I was talking about with head and shoulders. We’ve had the left shoulder. The selloff is about to happen. Get in when prices decrease dramatically and you could see the head be even larger than the run-up on this card initially.

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

Kiki-Jiki

This one has been on a steady decline for the past several weeks. I don’t think there’s a reason for this card to decline while Splinter Twin rises (more on that one in a moment). Kiki-Jiki is good in the Kiki-Pod lists a couple of months ago. While that deck fell a bit out of favor, I could see a deck with better creatures being better against a field with more Zoo and Fae decks (um. Restoration Angel blocks 3 power flyers for days). Also, Splinter Twin is fast and has the disruption to Remand annoying faeries.

Speaking of remand…

Remand

Remand

I don’t see this not going up. If there’s a Faeries deck, it might play this one. Moreover, Splinter Twin and the TWoo and UR delver lists are playing this amazing card. Deathrite Shaman, a notoriously useful card against Snapcaster Mage, is gone now. Also, Deathrite comes out T1 and is immensely frustrating. I don’t think there will be major gains here, but it’s possible you could get a 30% gain from this card.

Deathrite Shaman

Deathrite Shaman

Out of any banned card in Modern, I think this has been the most unwarranted sell-off. This is a Legacy and (to a lesser extent) Standard playable. Watch the price. I’m a buyer under four dollars. Buy foils too. Foils are good as this is a Cube and Commander card. Watch the price for foils. If they tank, you’ll be in for some major profits.

My final pick is:

Knight of the Reliquary

This, surprisingly, hasn’t seen a run up. I don’t know why. It plays very well with Wild Nacatl in a Zoo deck as a huge beater with a very useful effect in that deck to get a, say, Gavony Township. It’s also widely playable across the format. With Noble Hierarch being the defacto mana dork now, a Bant goodstuff deck may come to the forefront for example. Either way, I don’t see this card going lower than it is now. It’s definitely a pickup.

Before I go, I’d just like to introduce myself. I’m Camden Clark, and I’ve been playing Magic since Dark Ascension. I’m really interested in the financial aspect of MTG, and want to use statistical analysis to help evaluate cards. Follow me on twitter at http://twitter.com/flshbackfinance I’d love to have a chat! In full disclosure, I have not purchased any of the cards I have endorsed above, I’m just trying to help you know what to look for in cards and how to use the powerful statistical tool that is mtgprice.com!
See you soon.

The Jolly Green Giant

By; Travis Allen

A week or two ago I posted on Twitter about a Genesis Wave deck I’ve been playing in Modern and about how much I’ve enjoyed it. I am confident in saying that this is the most fun I’ve had playing Modern since the format’s inception. I got a lot of requests for the list and discussion, so this week I thought we could take a break from the B&R fervor and do something a little different. This article will be much lighter on the finance info than it normally is. Instead, we’ll be looking at the “NyxWave” deck. Hopefully this is far enough off the beaten Modern path to be interesting to most. Next week we’ll return to regularly scheduled programming.

Let’s start with my latest list:

Spells
4 Garruk Wildspeaker
4 Genesis Wave
1 Harmonize
3 Overgrowth
2 Primal Command
1 Sylvan Scrying
4 Utopia Sprawl

Creatures
1 Acidic Slime
4 Arbor Elf
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
1 Craterhoof Behemoth
4 Eternal Witness
1 Kitchen Finks
2 Primeval Titan
3 Voyaging Satyr

Lands
8 Forest
5 Green Fetches
1 Horizon Canopy
1 Kessig Wolf Run
4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden

Sideboard
1 Boseiju, Who Shelters All
1 Firespout
1 Harmonize
2 Kitchen Finks
1 Nature’s Claim
2 Rest in Peace
3 Spellskite
2 Stony Silence
1 Vexing Shusher
1 Wurmcoil Engine

If you’ve been following this deck online at all, you’ll see it’s sort of a hybrid between early Genesis Wave builds that ran the full set of BTEs and Elvish Visionarys and Woo’s recent list that focused more on establishing Primal Command locks. I’ve chosen a middle ground that I feel encompasses the best components of both lists.

Our mana ramp comes from the Utopia Sprawls, Overgrowths, Arbor Elves and Voyaging Satyrs. I think I’ve reached a point where my favorite three cards in an opening hand in Modern are Forest, Arbor Elf, and Utopia Sprawl. Why is that so powerful?

T1: Land, Arbor Elf
T2: Land, Utopia Sprawl on untapped land. Tap Sprawl land for two, untap with Arbor, tap for two more, for a total of four mana on T2.

That means turn two Garruk Wildspeakers (which untaps both lands for another three mana) or Harmonize. You’re in great shape after doing that, and even if you don’t manage to win, at least you had a ton of fun losing. Utopia Sprawl

Four Arbor Elves and four Utopia Sprawl are untouchable. They form the backbone of the deck’s mana acceleration, and are part of why Garruk is so good in this list. The Overgrowths and Voyaging Satyrs are also very powerful, but their numbers are more flexible. I feel that four and four is probably too many, but I haven’t figured out what the correct number is yet. I liked three and three, but I could see possibly dropping a Satyr.

Garruk Wildspeaker is amazing, and casting him reminds you of why he was the best Planeswalker in Lorwyn. Untapping two naked lands is reasonable, but when one of those lands has three enchantments on it and the other land is Nykthos, his +1 is just silly. Garruk is almost always behind the silly mana counts that reach into the mid and high teens. Then when you don’t have a use for more mana this turn, his beast token is way overpowered for the cost. It’s great at threatening opponents with lots of removal and plays solid defense on the turns where you don’t have any of your mana sinks. What’s more, a single +1 from his starting loyalty puts you in Overrun territory. It’s not uncommon to cast him, tick him up once, then just Overrun them to death the next turn. It’s not as flashy a win, but it’s efficient. Don’t ever cut Garruk. He’s one of the best cards in the deck, and he pays you in spades for all those auras.

Sylvan Scrying is an excellent 5th Nykthos. I’ve been pretty pleased with the card, having run as many as three copies in the past, but space is limited. I’m still not sure where the correct number is, but I know it’s between zero and three. Even if you already have Nykthos in play, it’s far from a blank. For two it fetches a second shrine to really make your mana explode. When you’re not in need of more shrines, go get a Kessig Wolf Run and just trample them to death with an Eternal Witness. Or perhaps you’ve got all the mana in the world but need to do something big this turn and KWR isn’t going to cut it? Find your Horizon Canopy and draw another card. That line sounds expensive, but with a few auras, an elf or two, and a Garruk, it really isn’t. It’s completely conceivable to generate sixteen mana, fetch Canopy, use it to draw a Primal Command, Command a land to the top of their deck and grab another Witness, Witness back the Primal Command, and then cast it again.

Speaking of which, Primal Command is half engine, half win condition. You’re never upset to cast it, although it is admittedly never stupendous. All the options are solid, and I’ve used each and every one of them several times. Having outs to random enchantments and artifacts are great, as is the life if you only need another turn to go off. Most of the time you’re flipping lands and fetching Witness to do it again next turn, as it locks their draw step while allowing you to keep advancing your board. Command provides a useful way to slow your opponent’s development in the mid-game while continuing to push towards a critical mass board state, and can also function as a semi-win late in the game when you can cast and recur it more than once in a turn, blanking your opponent’s draw step for a turn or two while you add more threats and either draw into a Wave or just fetch a Prime Titan.

Harmonize

Harmonize is awesome every single time, and my next revision to the list will probably involve playing more copies. If this deck has taught me anything, it’s that I severely wish this card was legal in Standard. When you can cast it on turn two and Witness it back the next turn, you know you’ve got something special. The biggest tension is between this and Primal Command. Primal Command *does* more, but it’s occasionally lower impact than you’d like, and typically your true win is Wave, which Harmonize finds and Command doesn’t. On the other hand, Harmonize can draw you two lands and an elf while Command can start a chain that leads to you taking complete control. I’m not sure yet what the proper split is here, and I’d love input from others who have experience.

Genesis Wave is the true engine of the deck, and is a sight to behold when it works. You typically want to hit it for at least eight so that your Craterhoof comes into play. Often the first wave won’t flip him, but instead will give you some combination of lands/Garruks/Witnesses that will allow you to cast a second Wave immediately, typically for much larger. Remember that when you flip a second Nykthos or Garruk, you can sac the old ones so you get fresh activations out of the new copies.

Beyond Arbor Elf and Voyaging Satyr, BTE acts as a mana source too, although less obviously so. She adds double green for devotion which really helps power up your Nykthos fast, and is part of all your most broken draws. I’ve had seven card hands that I unloaded with on T2 because they included a few BTE and Nykthos. Even the simple hands allow you to go BTE into Satyr, which typically sets up a big T3 unless your opponent does something quickly.

The downside is that she’s obviously not a great topdeck. Sometimes you just need the devotion so you’re happy to see her, but more often than not it’s a pretty dead draw. Other options here include Elvish Visionary, Strangleroot Geist, Fertile Ground, Wall of Roots, more Sylvan Scrying, or something else entirely. All of those reduce your bananahands, but have their own upsides. I recommend goldfishing a few hands to see what BTE can do before you condemn them though.

Eternal Witness allows for some of the best value plays in the deck. There are games where you play her on T2 to get back a fetchland just so that you’re putting mana symbols on the table and keeping the spice flowing. Other games she enables your Command chains. When you Wave for six or seven, a single Witness in the pile returns a Wave to your hand so that you can do the time warp again. When you’re behind on board you can Witness returning Garruk, then play him to make a beast, going from no board presence to threatening. Witnessing Harmonize feels spectacular. There’s just no shortage of jobs for a 2/1 Regrowth.

Acidic Slime is a one-of down from the four Woo plays. The card is strong, for sure, but it’s easy to end up in games where it’s just too low impact. I like having the single copy to be able to command for it where it’s necessary, but in general I’d rather draw cards that more directly advance my Wave plan.

Craterhoof Behemoth

Prime Times are Prime Times, I feel there isn’t a lot to say here. As vulnerable as he is against some decks, the KWR he fetches is rarely useless, and plenty of times they simply don’t have an answer. If you untap with Prime Time, you’re probably swinging for twenty or more damage on him alone. The Craterhoof is your “I win” off of Waves, and very rarely disappoints. Even if you only have two untapped creatures you can attack with when he comes into play, typically your wave(s) dumped a lot more bodies into play that turn and you can still swing for lethal. Hardcasting him isn’t out of the question either. I’ve beaten RG aggro decks that were at eighteen life by not blocking an attack for twelve, untapping, hardcasting Craterhoof and just killing them out of nowhere with a few Elves and a Witness. Your opponent is usually so concentrated on worrying about your combo that they overlook your ability to just Hoof them to death on the spot.

The manabase isn’t anything noteworthy, and I’m quite happy with it at the moment. I tried it with only three Nykthos, but I’m pretty sure that’s completely wrong. Drawing a second copy isn’t bad in this deck, because you’re often going to completely fine trading a land drop for a boost in mana on a critical turn. Activate the first Nykthos, play the second, then activate that one for megabonusjackpotmana.

If the sideboard changes significantly it may require mild tweaking, but for now it functions just as it should. It’s possible you could go up to twenty-two lands, but that should only happen if you’re adding more velocity to the main.

Your sideboard with this deck is mostly trying to proactively answer a few things: Robots, Graveyards, Deceiver Exarchs, and counterspells. Mine is geared for my local meta, so feel free to tweak yours as necessary.

Playing this deck is a blast. Your goal is typically to generate giant piles of mana and spend them on everything possible as fast as you can. Make sure you’re counting your potential mana on each line of play. Oftentimes you’ll be faced with situations where one line nets you five, another six, and a tricky-to-see third line will find you seven or eight. Remember to do things like cast Arbor Elf or Utopia Sprawl before activating Nykthos, as they’re a free roll, and they’ll even add mana if you can use Nykthos twice. Be wary of Tectonic Edges. Tec Edge can only destroy nonbasics and only if you have four or more lands. This means your auras should be on basic forests, and feel free to hold your fourth land in hand until you absolutely need it. Holding the Nykthos as your fourth land until you draw the Wave when playing against Tec Edge is almost always the right play.

One thing I’ve seen asked is “why not Tooth and Nail?” It’s a pretty similar spell. Pay nine mana, kill them on the spot. Genesis Wave involves all the triggers, can whiff, etc etc. I’ve been pondering this a good bit, and I believe Wave is (narrowly) the better option.

Flame-Kin Zealot

My issue with T&N is that it requires you to play dead cards, and occasionally will lose even if you resolve it. There are two basic routes you can take; Emrakul + Flame-Kin Zealot or Triskelion + Mikaeus. Trike and Mike looks like the best option on the surface, until you realize it gets hosed by graveyard hate or Path, which is definitely not what you want in an all-in win condition. That leaves us with Emrakul + Flame-kin. I’d guess that 97% of the time you put those two into play you’re going to win, but there are still those times you won’t. Your twin opponent may just Exarch the Emrakul before attacks, then untap and kill you. There will also be games that you draw the Flame-kin (or whatever haste enabler you opt for) and wish it was anything you could actually cast. Emrakul isn’t technically a dead draw, as fifteen is certainly viable, but I wouldn’t want to lean on that. Fifteen for Emrakul is a far cry from eight for Craterhoof. There are of course the games you’ll be able to pay seven for just the back half of T&N and slam Emrakul + whatever into play and dare your opponent to answer it in a single turn. I’m not sure how often those come up, or how often they win, but it can and will happen.

The knock against Wave is that it seems more expensive, and won’t always win you the game. I agree that paying nine for T&N seems more of a lock than with Wave, but I don’t think I’ve ever actually lost a game I Waved where X=6. If in those six cards you don’t find the tools necessary to recur and cast the Wave again that turn, you probably at least put some very relevant permanents into play. With only twenty-one lands, it’s not often that you’re going to flip six dead cards. You can also wave for less than six and often get the help you need. Four will put nearly all your permanents into play, and even three will get you most of your creatures, including any Witnesses to get back the Wave again for next turn. Waving for less than eight isn’t exactly preferable, but it’s still often going to be enough. You also aren’t required to keep any dead cards in your deck. Every card in your list is completely castable without Wave. Finally, Wave attacks on a multitude of vectors. You’re filling the board with threats, massive amounts of mana, enabling a Command chain, and presenting a hasty lethal threat that turn. Even if they can deal with the Craterhoof, they still have to worry about the fifteen creatures in play, the Garruk, the KWR, and the thirty+ mana you now have to loop Command three times.

Ultimately I’d say the difference between T&N and Wave is only going to matter on the margins. I am pretty sure Wave is slightly stronger, and I know for sure it’s more fun. Both get hit by different hate cards out of boards, so they’re a wash there. With a deck like this, you can really just pick whichever one is more fun to you.

I’ve spent 2500 words telling you how awesome this deck is. Now I’m going to tell you what’s a bummer. I’m pretty sure one of the worst cards in the format for this deck is Cryptic Command. It bounces aura’d lands, it counters everything you do without letting you pay your way out of it (unlike Mana Leak), and it fogs your Craterhoof turn. You also don’t want to see piles of Lightning Bolts, Helixes and Paths, since disrupting your small dudes early will typically disrupt you long enough for your opponent to beat their way in with Tarmogoyfs and Wild Nacatls. Deathrite Shaman and Liliana were actually not at their best against you, so you weren’t terribly upset to play against them. Now, instead of those, you are more likely to face some very bad matchups. I’ll be watching the format closely to see if I can tweak the deck to handle the impending changes, but a sharp rise in Cryptic decks could put this on the backburner. In the meantime, I encourage you to give this a whirl at your local Modern tournament. You’re definitely going to draw a crowd when you say “add seventeen mana to my mana pool, cast Genesis Wave for fourteen” out loud.

Born of the Gods Event Deck – Bitterblossom Event Deck Next?

By: Jared Yost

 png;base641d44c0be6ab30b41

With another set release comes another event deck. I think that it is a great idea that Wizards releases these event decks to accompany set releases because it allows players who may hop into the Standard cycle later than the fall set release to quickly grab a deck and get started playing. Though no one who is playing in a seriously competitive tournament would consider playing this deck as built, they do include several chase rares that are currently being utilized in Standard-winning decks. Having an event deck allows players to purchase Standard rares at a bargain price, and it even comes with another 70 cards.

 On to the event deck:

 Decklist:
24  Swamp
1  Agent of the Fates
1  Blood Scrivener
1  Crypt Ghast
1  Desecration Demon
1  Erebos’s Emissary
1  Herald of Torment
3  Mogis’s Marauder
1  Pack Rat
4  Rakdos Cackler
4  Rakdos Shred-Freak
3  Spiteful Returned
3  Tormented Hero
2  Xathrid Necromancer
2  Bile Blight
3  Doom Blade
1  Fated Return
1  Gift of Orzhova
1  Hero’s Downfall
2  Ultimate Price

Sideboard
3  Cremate
2  Dark Betrayal
4  Duress
2  Gift of Orzhova
2  Pharika’s Cure
2  Staff of the Death Magus

Analysis and Price Breakdown:

While the sideboard of the deck offers us hardly any value (two Staff of the Death Magus, really?) the main deck contains several notable black rares and uncommons. Two Xathrid Necromancer was quite unexpected, and unfortunately kills any chance that he may have had of breaking the $5 barrier. If you are holding any copies of this card I would try and trade them away because they are never going to more expensive their current average price of $5.

 Let’s figure out if the deck is worth the MSRP.

 The total value of the deck (excluding all bulk cards):
1 Agent of the Fates @ $1.09 each
1 Crypt Ghast @ $2.82 each
1 Desecration Demon @ $10.15 each
1 Herald of Torment @ $2.18 each
1 Pack Rat @ $5.99 each
4 Rakdos Cackler @ $1.05 each
2 Xathrid Necromancer @ $5.06 each
2 Bile Blight @ $1.31 each
3 Doom Blade @ $0.50 each
1 Hero’s Downfall @ $9.80 each
2 Ultimate Price @ $0.61 each
3 Gift of Orzhova @ $0.47 each
Total Value: $53.10

Wow, compared to the Theros Event Deck this deck is quite a steal at $25 MSRP! The value of the deck cannot be understated – though it is a shame that Mutavault could not be included as a 1-of. Even without Mutavault you will certainly get your money’s worth though.

Another item of note (beyond Xathrid Necromancer) is that this will suppress prices of Desecration Demon, Pack Rat, Hero’s Downfall, and and Bile Blight. Bile Blight will still be sought after a year from now – I just don’t think it will ever go over $2.

Speculation – Bitterblossom in the Modern Event Deck?

Last week’s banned and restricted list announcement sure made some shock waves in the Magic community. I think the biggest was that Bitterblossom is now unbanned in Modern. (Yes, debatable with the Deathrite Shaman banning, however I would argue that rumors were abound about him being banned for quite some time.) The Wild Nacatl unbanning is pretty cool too, and if you missed Travis’ article last week on what to expect from the unbannings I suggest you check it out. There is a lot of good information in there about what other cards to expect to go up in price other than Bitterblossom.

Since I’m on the topic of event decks this week, I have good reason to believe that the announced Modern event deck will contain at least one copy of Bitterblossom. The reason I believe this is not only because there were rumors previous to the unbanning that Wizards could be printing a B/W tokens deck (which I talked about here), but also because I have faith that someone at Wizards had the foresight to create an event deck based around the Bitterblossom token strategy since they knew the price would skyrocket once they announced its unbanning.

I would like to speculate around cards that could be reprinted in a Modern B/W tokens strategy. Some ideas based off mtgtop8 reports include:

Lands
Marsh Flats
Arid Mesa? (just to get more of them out there)
Isolated Chapel
Windbrisk Heights
Fetid Heath
Godless Shrine

Creatures
Auriok Champion
Tidehollow Sculler
Hero of Bladehold
Aven Mindcensor

Instants / Sorceries
Thoughtseize
Path to Exile
Spectral Procession
Lingering Souls
Zealous Persecution
Inquisition of Kozelik

Enchantments
Intangible Virtue
Honor of the Pure

Planeswalkers
Elspeth, Knight-Errant
Elspeth, Sun’s Champion (this is a long shot, yet you never do know – this is an event deck after all)

Sideboard
Stony Silence
Grafdigger’s Cage
Relic of Progenitus
Ethersworn Canonist
Mirran Crusader
Dismember
Fulminator Mage? (like Arid Mesa, to get more copies out there)
Baneslayer Angel?

I would be very hesitant to pick up any of the high dollar staples that could appear in a B/W tokens event deck – with another reprinting, they would certainly go down in value and you can lose out if you trade for them too soon. On the other hand, if you have extra components for the B/W tokens deck you should sell into the Bitterblossom hype as soon as possible. Bitterblossom is good, however I don’t think that it is $80 good and it should drop in price from there. The same is also true for the other cards that could go into the B/W tokens deck.

Using the Tools of the Trade

In light of the Modern format shakeup I would recommend utilizing the Modern 50 Biggest Gainers / Losers chart that mtgprice offers. There have been, and there is going to continue to be, a lot of action around Modern singles over the next few months leading up to the Pro Tour. Using this list is an easy to way to keep track of which singles are moving the most, either in a positive or negative direction. Taking a look at this gainers report from Friday I can already see some trends starting to occur:

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Looks like with the banning of Deathrite Shaman in Modern that Noble Hierarch has taken over the one drop slot of mana fixing / acceleration. I don’t really see this card being snuck into the Modern event deck, so this new price of $60 seems to be solid until a reprint.

Looks like Grove of the Burnwillows continues to see a trend upwards, which could be attributed to it’s recent Legacy performance in the winning Lands deck at SCG Baltimore in addition the massive amount of Modern play the card sees. 

http://gatherer.wizards.com/Handlers/Image.ashx?multiverseid=136044&type=card

Tarmogoyf has broken the $150 barrier and there doesn’t seem to be an end in sight – even with a reprint this card is absurdly expensive. It’s funny, the Modern Masters version of Tarmogoyf is more expensive than the Future Sight version. What gives? I guess players love the new art more than the old classic – most likely due to how ugly the Future Shifted card frames look. [Totally wrong. FUT border > Old border > Modern border. -ed]

Scalding Tarn looks like it could break the $70 barrier and keep going. Those Zendikar fetchlands are not getting any cheaper until a reprint, so hold on to any you might have. Maybe the event deck won’t be B/W tokens? (*cough* fat chance *cough*)

An interesting inclusion in this list is Vengevine – an increase also due to the banning of Deathrite. Having a promo printing could keep the price of this guy down, but if new graveyard strategies turn out to be pretty popular I could see him reaching the $25+ range. If you plan on playing a graveyard based strategy in Modern, feel free to pick up your Vengevines in case you need them. I don’t see him being any cheaper than he is now.

Small Set Economics

By: Cliff Daigle

The consensus at the moment is that Born of the Gods lacks punch, panache, and power for constructed formats. It’s being lumped in with Dragon’s Maze, which is not where you want to be. That set had one chase mythic and a lot of chaff. (How good is Ral Zarek and Inspired, though?)

Beyond the letdown, there’s something else at work we need to pay attention to: the size of the set and the block.

Unless you’ve been playing this game since 2009’s Scars of Mirrodin block, you might not know that the ‘traditional’ structure of a block is Big Set – Small Set – Small Set. It’s been four years since Wizards did a block with the structure they have said is ‘normal’. It’s fair to say that a large part of the current player base has started playing after that point. Karn Liberated

Scars block has seen a number of price spikes lately, especially mythics like Phyrexian Obliterator, Karn Liberated, and the popular casual cycle of the Praetors. Casual formats like EDH are also why Darksteel Plate is a $5 card. So many people have started playing Commander since 2009, it accounts for a large part of that price growth.

When the block structure changes, so does the draft environment and the economics of that set. Small sets can have cards that are highly sought after, but since only one of those packs is opened in a draft set, those cards are simply more scarce.

Let’s go to the numbers. For my examples, we’ll presume a small store that does three drafts in a month, and gets exactly eight people on those nights. We’ll talk about how the numbers scale in a moment.

Our model is a draft pod of eight people at one store, three drafts per month, three months per season. I’m not going to account for prize packs, since there’s such a wide range of prizes given out.

8 people in a draft

3 drafts per month

3 months in a season

3 packs of Theros

24 packs

72 packs

216 packs

This is exactly what happens with the big fall set: We open lots of it! But what happens when we add the second set in a traditional structure?

8 people/draft

3 drafts/month

3 months/season

1 pack of Born of the Gods

8 packs

24 packs

72 packs

2 packs of Theros

16 packs

48 packs

144 packs

The key here is not only are packs being opened at a 2:1 ratio for these three months, the big set was already exclusively opened for three months beforehand!

Now, the full block of Theros:

8 people/draft

3 drafts/month

3 months/season

1 pack of Journey Into Nyx

8 packs

24 packs

72 packs

1 pack of Born of the Gods

8 packs

24 packs

72 packs

1 pack of Theros

8 packs

24 packs

72 packs

When we add it up the nine months of Theros block, the discrepancy is clear. In this basic example, this store will have opened 432 packs of Theros, 144 of Born of the Gods, and a mere 72 packs of Journey into Nyx.

Reducing that ratio (yes, let’s step back into middle school math) gives us a ratio of 6:2:1.

For every one pack of the third set, two of the middle set and six of the first are opened. Granted, this is only for draft, but sealed goes 3/3 and then 2/2/2, which isn’t a big swing, considering how many drafts happen vs. how many sealed events occur.

It doesn’t matter how many drafts are held, this ratio stays firm (so long as equal number of drafts occur during each season.) We will open three times as many Theros packs as we will of Born of the Gods, and we will open six times as many Theros packs as we will Journey into Nyx. Cards from those sets are much more likely to see big price spikes during their time in Standard – and beyond!

For comparison’s sake, let’s look at the ratio of the block we just finished:

 

Draft season

Packs opened that season

Totals opened at the end

Return to Ravnica only

216 RTR packs opened

288 RTR packs

Gatecrash only

216 GTC packs opened

288 GTC packs

Full block (DGM-GTC-RTR)

72 of each opened

72 Dragon’s Maze packs

Our ratio is now 4:4:1, and explains how all the shocklands have a similar price right now: we opened equal amounts of each of those set. Return to Ravnica block draft had one more issue: Modern Masters showed up at the end, and everyone who could draft that instead of RtR block did so.

To counteract the small-set effect somewhat, small sets have less cards. That means the chance of getting a Brimaz in your Born of the Gods pack is higher than getting a Jace, AoT in your Return to Ravnica pack. The number of mythics in a small set is five less, but when combined with the smaller number of packs, the small-set cards don’t keep up. When a small-set Mythic is popular and powerful, we get Huntmaster of the Fells at $40 before the end of its time in Standard. A hot new build featuring Voice of Resurgence would have a similar outcome.

With small sets opened in that ratio through the life of the block, and the smaller number of rares/mythics, chase cards are exactly that: a target. As a rough estimate, specific small-set cards are three to four times less likely to be opened at events. It’s not going to feel that way at a PTQ or GP, where it will seem like Gods and Brimaz abound at the top tables, but there it is.

Aurelia, the Warleader

Born of the Gods will have an extra three months of it being drafted compared to Journey into Nyx, though. That set will be even more impacted! There will be twice as much Born of the Gods opened as Journey into Nyx.

I admit there are factors here that I can’t account for. We aren’t told how many redemptions occur via Magic Online. We aren’t given hard data on the number of boxes sold, nor are we able to estimate how many boxes are opened just for the packs.

So what does this mean? What benefit do we gain from this knowledge?

First of all, if it’s borne out that Brimaz is the chase mythic and all else is chaff. Stock up on the scry lands from these two small sets. They will be much harder find than their Theros counterparts, and will be sought after during their time in standard. Don’t sleep on how good the scry lands are in EDH either – that’s going to lower the supply available.

The Gods of BotG face a similar path. All of them are good casual cards and make interesting decks as generals or in the ninety-nine. I’m looking for a few of them myself. They may not see much Standard play, but the smaller numbers and casual appeal will keep their prices from dipping too far. I’d anticipate that the five Gods of Journey into Nyx will be similarly impacted, though they will be half as available! (Side note: I’m trying to trade for Aurelia, the Warleader right now because it’s a safe bet that the Boros god, Iroas, will do something good for attackers, and a curve of Iroas into Aurelia will only need one other red or white card to turn on devotion and double attacks.)

After that, though, I don’t see much in Born of the Gods that will have players going crazy. It’s a set with a little something for everyone, filling a lot of niches. There’s exchanging control, random destruction, legendary benefits, a less-than-overpowered planeswalker, and a five-color, dear-lord-why-aren’t-you-a-legend mega-Bestow. There’s a lot of fun cards to try, but not many that will have a huge financial impact.

In the event that I’m wrong, please keep in mind that everything in these two small sets will have a severely diminished supply. We’ve got three months of Born-Theros-Theros drafts in front of us, so we’ll keep opening Master of Waves and Hero’s Downfall, but we won’t crack open many of the new Gods or the new scrylands.

Have fun at the release this weekend!

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