Player Base Fuel

December 30, 2013 Jared Yost

By: Jared Yost

One of the fundamental parts of the Magic market is the player base. In order to understand the purchasing decisions of the Magic: The Gathering player, I am going to identify the major and minor forces that influence player participation. The player base size drives the prices of cards, and Magic has seen a significant gain the in the player base over the last few years.

First, I will point you to this article on Brainstorm Brewery that got me thinking about this phenomenon. The main points that the article drives home are as follows:

1. Up until 2012, the Magic player base has grown at approximately 25% per year each year for 4 years running (since 2008).

2. It logically follows that due to this player growth, more Magic product is printed each year to keep up with the demand. It is logical to assume that 25% more is released each year to match this projected 25% growth.

3. Thus, since Magic is growing by 25% per year and new cards are printed in 25% greater quantities each year, older cards prior to 2008 printed at the same rarity level (the article emphasizes rare) will be significantly rarer than current cards printed at the same rarity.

The author makes several keen comparisons of exactly how rare the older rares are compared to the newer rares. Please read the article to find out more information – it truly is one of the better pieces of Magic finance research I have seen. But what are the forces behind this massive player base increase that drives Wizards to print more and more product?

Major Force – A Refocus on the Casual Crowd

Based on the timeline of set releases, we can see that things are starting to shake up around the year 2008 in terms of product releases. By “shake up,” I mean that Wizards is releasing other sets and product outside of the normal 3 expert-level sets per year and the biennial core set. Outside of the “Un-” sets, the first mass-released casual product was Duel Decks: Elves vs. Goblins. Thereafter, duel decks have been released about twice a year to cater to casual demand.

Duel decks are great for newer players because they expand collections much better than intro decks. Wizards can reprint cards that are too powerful for Standard that are still casual favorites (Counterspell in Jace vs. Chandra is a good example). The decks also include occasionally hard-to-find player favorites (Elephant Guide, Armadillo Cloak) that players love for casual 60s. If purchased for $20 they are a great deal.

Around the same time, Wizards also started to release From the Vault (FTV) sets. The first FTV was released nine months after DD: Elves vs. Goblins. It was FTV: Dragons, which in retrospect was a great choice for casual players but left other types of players (those spikes wishing to pimp out their tournament decks) somewhat dissatisfied. In order to accommodate spikes, other FTVs have been released that cater more to them – FTV: Exiled and FTV: Relics were aimed at spikes in addition to the newly released FTV: 20, which included Jace, the Mind Sculptor.

The theory I believe influences this change in FTVs is that casual players prefer not to play with foils – therefore, a foil based product should be aimed towards more serious players and collectors (I think this is why FTV: Legends was also less popular than previous FTV products). The FTV sets add another dimension to the game that allows players to (somewhat) easily obtain copies of cards that would otherwise be hard to find in foil.

Planechase, Archenemy, and Commander continue to add further dimensions to casual play. Again, these formats allow older, more powerful cards to be reprinted (Sundering Titan, Thran Dynamo, etc.) and at the same time create new ways to play Magic. Also, like duel decks and FTV products, they were released after 2008 – the key year identified as the start of the player base explosion.

One failed experiment was the Premium Deck Series. I attribute this to the foiling of the cards – like I mentioned before, I have a theory that casual players prefer not to play with foil versions of cards, and because of this the decks weren’t as popular as they could have been. Once Wizards was aware of this, they adjusted their strategy accordingly. As traders and speculators, we should also keep this in mind – when trading or selling to casual players, the nonfoil cards are just fine most of the time.

Finally, the rebranding of core sets (naming them after years, e.g. Magic 2013) and introduction of brand new cards has further enabled Wizards to keep the game fresh and exciting for both new and returning players.

Given these examples, I think it is pretty clear that appealing to the casual crowd has enabled the game to be more successful than ever.

Minor Force – Flexibility When You Need It

Another reason Magic has been so successful is because Wizards is good at recognizing the general player mood and responding to it in a positive way. They receive feedback from customers and vendors alike, and are more apt to change course when a group of players feels left out.

Wizards also knows that change is necessary. Even if negative feedback is received about a new idea, they will take it in stride and work towards improving the game. Wizards even tries to ameliorate bad medicine like mythic rares by reprinting popular ones in commander or duel deck products.

Modern Masters is a perfect example of Wizards becoming more flexible. Even though Chronicles was a disaster, Wizards was able to correct their mistakes with Chronicles and create a successful product the next time around.

Minor Force – Social Media

Though I say social media is a “minor” force in the success of Magic, I would not underestimate its impact. I truly believe that Twitter is part of the success of Magic. It allows players to connect in ways that were not possible before. In addition, Reddit has also greatly expanded the scope of Magic – currently, there are approximately 80,000 users subscribed to http://www.reddit.com/r/magictcg. Amazingly enough, that’s only about 2% of the estimated Magic population. There is still plenty of room for growth in this area and I am sure that Wizards knows this better than anyone else. Get the power of the Internet behind you and anything is possible.

To Be Continued?

There are definitely other factors that have made Magic successful, and I would love to revisit this topic at some point in the future. I think it is fascinating to consider the forces that influence players and their buying decisions. Knowing these factors plays a huge role in understanding the Magic finance market and knowing what cards and formats are best to trade/buy into in anticipation of future gains. Chime in below in the comments about any factors that have made you want play Magic in recent years.

Casual Fridays

The Problem With Experience

December 27, 2013 Cliff Daigle

By: Cliff Daigle

I should check prices a lot more than I do.

I suffer from a problem of price memory: I know what a card was worth at a certain point, and I am not always diligent in checking prices in the moment. In this, I am not alone. It’s about more than being on top of whatever the latest price is. It’s about recognizing that because a card had a particular price for a while, I remember it as being that price…even when it’s not.

As someone who’s been playing Magic for years upon years, sometimes I’m really taken aback by what some prices have gotten to.

I sold 100 copies of Hymn to Tourach to assorted buylists last year, and I can only laugh when I see Fallen Empires packs selling for more than a dollar. I understand that Hymn is a card that is relatively rare and quite powerful, but I have vivid memories of Fallen Empires being a set that was vastly overprinted and incredibly worthless. Why else would I have had so many of them from so long ago? Thank goodness I never throw out old cards, and thank goodness my wife keeps everything organized.

Such price memories are from more than 15 years ago, but they still shape my interactions. I have a similar mental block on dual lands: I have trouble seeing that any are more than $40, because for a long time, they were that much or less.

I’ve traded for cards at a certain price because I felt sure that’s what they were worth. After all, that’s how much they had been for the longest time! But when I get home and review my trades, I get annoyed to find out how wrong I was.

I’m a cautionary tale. When you don’t check prices during a trad, it can come across as very egotistical, even belligerent. More than once I’ve assigned a value to a card, only to have that card be MUCH higher than I remembered. At best, that makes me look like a fool who can’t remember basic financial info. At worst, I appear to be some sort of slimy shark, undervaluing the contents of someone else’s binder.

We’re creatures of habit, and those habits can cause us problems. I try hard to make sure that I check prices in a trade, for my benefit and theirs. I’ve learned to qualify statements about price: “I looked a while ago and it was $5. I’m not sure if it is still that price.”

This sort of memory applies to prices, and it applies to card evaluation as well. In many cases new cards do not compare favorably to old ones, and that may lead us to make mistakes regarding value. I did this with Primeval Bounty, and I still evaluate every counterspell in light of, well, Counterspell. (or Dismiss! Man, I am glad I never have to play against Dismiss, but sad that I won’t ever get to play that in Standard again.)

I have learned through experience that most of the time, my memory of prices is on the low side. I forget that Magic has grown at an incredible rate, to the point that for years, each big fall set was the best-selling set in Magic’s history. That’s amazing for a game twenty years old. I don’t account for the sheer number who get introduced to this game and dive right in, building Standard and Modern and EDH and Cubes and snapping up all sorts of older cards.

My point is that when you’re trading without checking prices, you feel in control until you turn around and find out that your Urza’s Legacy copies of Rancor are significantly more pricey than any of the newer printings. If you’ve recently reviewed and memorized price points, work from memory. If you’re like me and have a difficult time keeping it all straight, bookmark mtgprice.com on your phone and let us keep you informed.

City of Traders

Do the Planeswalker Curve

December 25, 2013 Travis Allen 1 Comment

By: Travis Allen

Merry Christmas!

This article goes live on December 25th, which is Christmas for a large majority of my American readers. I didn’t bring you any gifts, but I do have some words you can read about Magic on your phone at family dinner while trying to avoid conversation with irritating relatives that bought you packs of Pokemon.

I’ve become aware of a trend in Planeswalkers lately that I want to bring to your attention. I’m going to say right off the bat that this is hardly conclusive, nor is it particularly revelatory. It’s mostly a pattern I’m noticing, and whether it’s signal or noise, I can’t be sure. In any case, it’s worth being aware of.

Let’s start by taking a look at the price history of Jace, Architect of thought:

You see here that Jace started very high, as all Planeswalkers do post-Worldwake, and dipped all the way down to about $10-$12 early this year. There was a small bump in early summer as speculators got on board, and finally in the fall he rose to ~$25, where he was looking like he could have climbed even higher had Jace vs Vraska not been announced. He now sits right around $20.

Next up, Domri Rade:

Here is a very similar curve. He dropped to ~$12, then in the fall climbed to $25+. As with Jace, he has settled around $20.

Now Chandra, Pyromaster and Garruk, Caller of Beasts:

I think you’re beginning to see a trend here. All of these Planeswalkers have done the same thing. They dip in the spring to about $8-$12, then skyrocket in the fall. This isn’t exactly new information; lots of cards from the senior block have similar curves. The reason this is worth paying attention to in this case is because the good cards are already obvious. Not many people could have identified Desecration Demon skyrocketing, and only a few saw Nightveil Specter coming. Those rares that see 1,000% increases are notoriously difficult to predict. But the Planeswalkers are easy! They’re huge, obvious, splashy cards. No thinking required. They aren’t going from $.40 to $9, but $10 to $25 is still a good chunk of profit.

This seems to be a newer trend as well. We saw something similar with Liliana of the Veil, but her low was about $18 or so. Other than that, I don’t recall so many Planeswalkers behaving similarly at the same time. It may be that they’ve ironed out power levels of the Planeswalkers a bit, so they aren’t quite as divided between “top five ever” and “not good enough for a casual deck.”

It’s also not happening with every single Planeswalker. While the ones listed above have seen spikes, Vraska and Gideon haven’t jumped yet, and they are both from the Return block as well.

It seems that we have a fairly clear price curve for successful Planeswalkers. How can we identify them? Well, I’d say the block Pro Tour is a good place to start. Jace was all over the Top 8 of PT Dragon’s Maze, and Domri made a showing in the 18+ points list. Gideon was around, but only in Sideboards, and it doesn’t seem that Vraska showed up at all. Outside of that Pro Tour, Domri and Jace were seeing play, while Gideon and Vraska were not.

Chandra and Garruk are a little tougher to spot, simply because they didn’t have the Pro Tour to show off at. They move a lot faster; dipping within weeks of the core set release, and then spiking in sometime in October. The trick to catching core set Planeswalkers in the future will be watching for ones that seem to perform in the month and a half after release, but before rotation occurs.

This seems to make a rather compelling case that any walker that has had reasonable success prior to their first summer will be a great pickup a few months ahead of the fall set. So far out of Theros we’ve had Ashiok, Elspeth, and Xenagos, who have all seen some amount of accomplishment. Are these the three we should be watching in the fall of 2014, or will the rest of the Theros block dethrone them?

The Gilded Goblin

The Wild West

December 23, 2013 Jared Yost

By: Jared Yost

Sometimes it feels like we are in the wild west of Magic: the Gathering when it comes to sudden price spikes and card buyouts that seem to affect the market on a weekly basis. It feels like every week I am hearing that this card or that card was bought out and the price has gone up 200%-400%. Just like a shootout, it seems as if the first person to draw their gun (or in this case, their wallet) and fire (click “add to cart”) is the winner. And it only seems to get worse as time goes on.

Let’s ponder for a quick minute – who the heck is actually pulling the trigger on these calls like Disrupting Shoal and Phyrexian Obliterator (which even seemed to spike twice?) Is it individuals that have amassed enough ammunition (money) and have good enough aim (experience) to hit every single target faster than the rest of us? Are they the Billie the Kids and Jesse James of the Magic market? Is there a domino effect of casual speculators with more money than sense?

The answer is probably yes to both. As the popularity of Magic increases, it looks like the sky’s the limit for the prices on some of these cards when someone discovers that they are undercosted and acts quickly to drain the market. If you are one of these individuals, my hat is off to you. Congratulations. You have done your homework, discovered an undervalued asset, and have capitalized on that asset. I’m not sure if there is any advice I can give you except to avoid the trap of getting in on a card too late, which you’ve probably avoided in 95% of the cases (there is always the potential for the double spike, though it doesn’t happen often – Jace, the Mind Sculptor did it in Standard). Just remember to strike while the iron is hot: those Disrupting Shoals aren’t going to sell themselves.

But It’s not even Modern cards that are experiencing these price hikes. What about cards like Wheel and Deal and Forced Fruition? Nekusar hasn’t been out for long and isn’t even the flagship commander of the Mind Seize deck, so why did these random cards that only fit into a narrow strategy in a specific causal format go up in value? I might have an idea.

Those holding the bag of cards that spike and then quickly plummet are similar to the penny stock investor, who decided “investing” in penny stock assets would result in a great return. However, the asset in this case is not a random number on a roulette wheel or any single name in a list of penny stocks – the asset is actually something that all of us are emotionally invested in. The first reason that these spikes happen is because players and speculators are both emotionally invested in the game of Magic.

Everyone that plays Magic is emotionally invested in the game to some degree. Otherwise, why play the game? There are literally thousands of other games that could be played instead, so what makes it so special? The answer is that playing the game is fun, the wonderful community is welcoming and friendly, the feeling of opening packs and sorting a collection can’t be beat, the feeling of chasing a collection and acquiring all of the particular cards you desire is amazing, the great feeling of putting a deck together and calling it your own is the best, and the support by the company that produces the game is fantastic. Without all of these factors, Magic would falter and slowly go away. It is stronger than ever now because all Magic players are able to get emotionally invested through all of these other aspects besides playing the game. There are hundreds of websites dedicated to Magic out there, whether they sell art related to the game (card alters), offer game accessories (dice, tokens, deckboxes, playmats, etc.), or are just reflecting on the community (Cardboard Crack). All of these factors help to cement good feelings in players’ minds about how sweet Magic is.

Right, so what does emotional investment have to do with price spikes? Well, when you get pretty emotional about something, it’s much harder for logic to factor into the equation. Do you want to buy those Disrupting Shoals at $10 because you think they’re cool and there is no way they could go down due to their awesomeness? If this is your train of thought, speculating might not be for you. Speculating requires a certain amount of cold logic and forethought that a lot players don’t want to apply to their favorite past time, which is supposed to be about fun.

Besides emotional investing, I believe another reason that these price spikes are happening is due to the rarity of the older cards compared to the newer ones (Wheel of Fortune anyone?). Back when Magic first came out, they had no idea how popular the game would be. They created the reserve list out of a fear of killing the game via reprints, and it seemed to work for a time. Because these cards can’t be reprinted, when a new card is released that synergizes or combos well with an old Reserve List card, that card can wind up spiking in value very fast. Even a rules change or unbanning could do this – Gaea’s Cradle and Time Spiral are examples of these cases respectively. With the Modern format Wizards can better control prices of newer cards, but older cards that are in Legacy and EDH are anyone’s guess.

In addition to Reserved List cards that are never getting reprinted, cards that could also receive a reprint but have not gotten one yet are also targets for spikes. Specifically, cards in sets that are post-reserved but pre-Modern, like Masque’s (Rishadan Port), Invasion, Odyssey, and Onslaught – these blocks were printed in a time where the Magic community was only a fraction of what it is today. If a card from one of these sets is discovered to be very synergistic with a new card it, it will spike out of nowhere because the amount of copies that exist are marginal compared to the demand it will see from interacting well with a newer card. It is very hard to keep on top of all the potential combinations that exist without a good grasp on the community resources available to discover these interactions. So I will state that card rarity is always a factor in a spike, because even uncommons (Remand) can become grossly expensive without a reprint.

Just because because a card is rare or hard to find does not mean that its spike is warranted. Aluren would be a good example of this – it’s a card that has a legacy deck to its name and is a casual favorite that a lot of players remember having tons of fun with. It never sustained its price, though, because the deck failed to put up enough results compared to other currently existing legacy decks. Due to the lack of demand, it then dropped down close to the original price from which it spiked. In order to avoid buying high into potential scenarios like Aluren, you want to make sure you pick up the card before it has seen a massive increase in price, you want to make sure that it can fit into a deck that has proven results backing it up, you want to make sure that even if it isn’t tournament playable that it can be popular with casual and EDH players, and you finally want to make sure that it is from a set that had a relatively small print run compared to current sets (like the post-reserve list sets I mentioned above).

So in summary, the combination of emotional investing and card rarity are a recipe for a card spike. Whether the spike is real or whether it will ultimately become a bust can be hard to spot without extensive knowledge of the current tournament scene and correctly identifying the casual appeal of a card. With time comes experience, and I’m sure we’ve all made mistakes in the past in regard to cards and spikes – I certainly have. All we can do is to keep working at it and make sure that the characteristics of a card match up well with the reasons a card could spike. It can sure feel like the wild west at times with all of these card spikes, but realize that many of them can’t sustain those prices for very long and are mainly driven emotional investing and card rarity.

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