City of Traders

Real Value from Small Gains

By: Travis Allen

MTG writers are frequently telling you what cards to be on the lookout for, especially in Standard. Anticipated shifts in formats and mid-week articles can herald the coming of a previously-overlooked rare, resulting in both greater demand and greater price for the card by Monday morning. This happens all the time, and we don’t need to look too far back to see examples of it.

master

When Mono-blue exploded after the Pro Tour, the big winners were obviously Master of Waves, Thassa, and Nightveil Specter. Then there was Tidebinder Mage. Tidebinder jumped by a dollar or two. If you bought in Friday morning at ~$1.50, you saw a nice uptick to about $4 retail. Buylists didn’t move much though, and even if they did, it wasn’t for long.

More recently we experienced the same thing with Pack Rat and Underworld Connections. Both were under $1 before the Mono-black list exploded at Louisville the weekend before Halloween. After that, they jumped to a good $2-3 each, and thanks to black’s continued success, remain there today.

Let’s say you are excellent at speculating, and saw the Pack Rat/Underworld Connections jump coming. You likely would have looked at Nightveil Specter, saw a card gain $10 in two weeks, and had dollar signs in your eyes. You bought and traded for a bunch of copies of Rat and Connections, followed by spending some time adding all sorts of cool foils to a shopping cart, just waiting to make bank.

Your prescience paid off, and you indeed made profit. Well, kind of.

Pack Rat and Underworld Connections jumped, sure. But how much, really? The cards quadrupled in value, which sounds amazing on paper, but what is your actual rate on that? They went from $.50 or $.75 to $2 and $3? You definitely came out ahead, but realizing actual concrete profit on that is tough. A quick review of a few buylists shows that you may be able to get $1 to $1.50 on those now. That means if your cost was a true $.50 per copy (making sure to factor in tax and shipping), you may make a net profit of $.50 on each card sold back, minus the shipping fees to get the cards to the buylist. (If sending more than five or tend cards, your shipping could easily be $5+, which is ten cards worth of profit alone.)

That giant spike sadly only represents a $2 rise.
That giant spike sadly only represents a $2 rise.

How many cards would you have had to buy to see actual cash in your pocket? 200 copies of Pack Rat would net you somewhere around $90 in profit, assuming some store actually wanted 200 copies (or multiple stores were offering $1). That sounds nice and tidy, but you would have had to shell out $100 upfront for 200 copies of Pack Rat. How often are you that sure of your success? Sometimes you Just Know, like the guys that preordered huge piles of Deathrite Shamans, Bonfire of the Damneds, Sphinx’s Revelations, or Snapcaster Mages. It’s not uncommon for people to just buy several playsets though, hedging their bets in case the card doesn’t pan out the way they hoped. In a situation where you pick up four to twenty copies, it isn’t even worth your time to go to the post office to mail them to the buylist. What then?

One of the side effects of a card jumping like this is that not only did the price rise, but demand also rose as well. Because of the general floor of rare values, as well as a seemingly invisible casual market, many rares will hold a price of $.25-$.75 with only the remotest chance someone actually wants to trade for any. When they hit $2-3, not only did the value go up, but that means the demand at your local store will have went from a stone cold nothing to an appreciable amount. This is where your best opportunity is to capitalize on small-value cards with large percentage gains.

Imagine you bought four playsets of Underworld Connections for $.75 a card, hoping they’d spike. Your spec didn’t completely bomb, as they’re currently around $2.50 in trade, with a best buylist of $.90 as of 12/2. That’s hardly worth shipping to a buylist though. Instead, you should stick them front in center of your binder and head off to your LGS. With a trade value of $2.50, you can ask a good $10 in trade for the set. You can then utilize good trade practices and disparity of information to perhaps grab a Master of Waves from someone looking to move into black. Now, suddenly your $3 investment on a set of Connections has turned into a real card. If you can manage that three more times, you’ve managed to turn a mildly successful spec into a hot playset of Standard mythics.

You can further take advantage of this situation by identifying cards with a good buylist spread. The long and short of it is that the smaller the spread, the better positioned the card is on the market. If Card A sells for $10 but has a buylist of $3, it has a huge spread and is less appealing to trade into. If Card B is a $10 card with a buylist of $7 or $8, a considerably smaller spread, it will trade at the same value as Card A but will make you more than double if you decide to buylist it. Those are the types of things you really want to be aware of when making trades in search of profit.

This is physically painful for me to look at.
This is physically painful for me to look at.

Remember how I said Master of Waves is around a $10 card? As of 12/2, his best buylist is $4.18, and you may have a tough time getting one for a set of Underworld Connections anyways. Desecration Demon, meanwhile, has a slightly lower trade value, and has a best buylist of a whopping $6.30. If you sold those sixteen Underworld Connections at buylist for $.90 each, you would have made $2.40 in profit, which wouldn’t even cover shipping the cards to a store. Four Desecration Demons will make you $13.20 net cash profit from a buylist for the exact same trade value, whose trades you may even be able to get a throw-ins on. Smart trading indeed!

Buying a few playsets of a card with good a outlook is common practice in the Magic world for those with a keen eye and prudent sense. Sometimes they jump, but you aren’t quite sure how to actually make money if the gain isn’t large enough. Now you have the knowledge of how to profit from these meager market shifts. Happy trading! 

The Gilded Goblin

MTG Market Insight – The Power of Market Leader Information

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EDITOR’S NOTE:

We have also been “asked” to remove Starcity prices form our site. We have pulled the prices for now.

The reason for removing the prices was simply that it wasn’t worth the time and effort required to keep up with their constant attempts to hide the data and they were almost NEVER the lowest prices vendor so the added gain to our users was very minimal.

On average, Starcity was 12% more expensive than almost every other vendor for almost every other card we looked at. Since each vendor is selling an identical good, sending people to SCG seemed silly.

That being said, some people still want SCG prices for comparison. Since mtgprice.com has some funding, we’re fortunate to have some excellent IP and Internet lawyers available to us (www.dlapiper.com). Rough advice from them follows (note: this is NOT advice to anyone else, it’s just me paraphrasing our own personal legal situation):

1. Price information is simply a statement of facts. You cannot copyright it. This is a 1991 Supreme Court decision. Relevant case law is here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feist_v._Rural

In my opinion, for the C&D author to claim “such action may also constitute an infringement of SCG’s intellectual property rights” implies that one of the following statements is true:

a) They are a terrible lawyer that doesn’t understand basic case law.
b) They are lying.
c) They think the word “may” means “doesn’t in any way”.

2. Terms and Conditions on a website need to be affirmatively agreed to to be binding. If I added to the T&C on mtgprice.com “Anyone from starcitygames.com that visits this site owes me $1 Million USD per visit”, it would be irrelevant. (Even if they DID agree, it would be unconscionable but that’s besides the point). Importantly, we have been careful to never accept these terms and conditions (which is why we stopped offering buylist prices earlier this year).

3. The recent 3Taps/ Padmapper/ Craigslist ruling CAN make “circumvention” unlawful, however the exact definition of circumvention is hazy. The EFF has a nice writeup of this case here: https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2013/08/court-rules-accessing-public-website-isnt-crime-hiding-your-ip-address-could-be

For us, we decided that the simplest possible thing to do would be to use Amazon Turk to crowdsource the pricing data. In other words, get real humans to connect to starcitygames.com and simply tell us how much they are charging for each card. Using Turk, we estimate that we could get every modern card’s price for less than $10/day. If there is demand for this, we will probably go this route since it both avoids all of the technological measures SCG are using and it’s 100% legal.

Please note: We have repeatedly offered Starcity free advertising for their data. We are also willing to pay directly for it, or to take any reasonable steps needed to limit any server load they may encounter.

Ultimately, we doubt this is about server load. We feel that Starcity simply don’t want people to be able to compare their prices as SCG prices are so frequently much more expensive than their competitors.

This is something we are willing to fight if it’s of benefit to our users. If you’d like to continue to see SCG prices on our site, please let me know at webmaster@mtgprice.com or post below.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE:

By: Jared Yost

How much power does Magic market information have when it comes directly from a market leader? To what extent are we willing to go to make sure that we are getting the best price for the cards that we trade or buy? To what extent are companies willing to go to protect their business data from being used in ways which they may not approve? A controversy has come to light surrounding these questions.

Recently, an interesting post has appeared on Reddit about Starcitygames (SCG) locking down the information on their website. A brief history of dawnglare is as follows. Reddit user dawnGlare created the website http://mtg.dawnglare.com, which is a price scraping tool used to display card prices for Magic cards. Some of you may remember the website ark42, which is what Dawnglare is based upon. It was the original Starcity price scraper that was used to quickly lookup sell prices, and was quite popular to boot. The owner of the ark42 website seemed to have a falling out with their local Magic community, which is explained in his monologue that has replaced the original website. I don’t think Starcity had any hand in ark42 shutting down like the current dawnglare situation. It operated for quite a while before it was shut down and it was a shame that such a wonderful contribution to the community is now dysfunctional because of a few bad apples.

Dawnglare is the replacement for the ark42 tool, with both of the websites utilizing similar, if not the same source code to display card names, prices, and mouse-over pictures of the cards. The tool has not been available too long; a few months at most. Like ark42, Dawnglare utilizes Starcity prices, and in addition have stated that their goal is to incorporate TCG mid prices for cards as well. The website is still functioning with only Starcity prices because it appears that the owner is seeking community input before they move forward with either improvements to the service or shutting it down.

This article is not providing input on whether or not they should keep the website, but rather analyzing the situation and providing commentary.

A summary about the case against Dawnglare:

  • Starcity sent a cease and desist letter to the Dawnglare site admin, which means that they are utilizing legal representation in order to enforce their data policy (in other words, they aren’t playing around once they get lawyers involved.)

  • Starcity quoted their website’s terms and conditions in the letter, which state that ANY type of information on starcitygames.com cannot be scraped programmatically

  • This point is important, because information defined here also includes the sell prices of the cards, not only just the buylist prices. Many people on the Reddit post were confused on this point because Dawnglare reads only the sell price, not the buylist for Starcity, which specifically carries a set of terms.

  • Starcitygames.com’s terms and conditions state that the user must agree to them

  • This is interesting because there isn’t any agreement page that you need to go through before accessing the main website in order to see sell prices, unlike the buylist. However, though this may seem unintuitive, it could actually be the case that just using the website makes you subject to the Terms and Conditions. It could be argued either way.

  • Starcity stated that dawnglare has committed a breach of contract with the website for its automatic scraping

  • Staricty claimed that the sell price data on its website are valuable rights of the organization

  • Starcity gave the Dawnglare site admin until December 2nd, the date of this article publication, to comply with their demands or face legal recourse

  • Starcity mentioned that legal disputes can only be fought in a court in Roanoke, VA, where their physical store is located

  • I’m not sure about state law in regards to the internet, though it would definitely be weird to go to court with this if the Dawnglare site admin is not located in VA

Let me say this now – I am only providing my opinion on this controversy based on the details outlined by Dawnglare on the original Reddit post. I have no idea if the Dawnglare site admin altered the letter Starcity sent them in any way nor do I have any way of knowing if Starcity will continue with their legal recourse for the Dawnglare price tool. I simply wish to start a conversation with players about how far organizations are willing to go to protect their data about real-time card prices, even if the data seems innocuous. Moving forward, this can also lead to implications about access to financial data of cards.

First, let me address one issue at hand – Starcity wishing to protect their data from a technological perspective. As an organization, especially one with a detailed terms of service expressly forbidding certain actions, they have a right to protect their business interests if they feel it will affect them in a negative way.

How can a price scraping tool affect Starcity negatively? A major concern is that external sites could cause a massive strain on server resources for Starcity, such that if several tools like Dawnglare are scraping their website for information it could hamper the website’s response speed. If any of you have used the Starcity deck database search or advanced card search, you can already see that their searches are somewhat slow. It can take quite a while to return a results from an advanced search. With so many users already searching the database, adding a scraping tool that is constantly pinging the database only stands to make things worse.

Of course, you could argue that Starcity should upgrade their servers and increase their bandwidth to the website to eliminate these problems, which would negate the effects from any tool that would also scrape the information (think Google, Amazon,or any other big name retailer – programs scrape their information all the time and it does affect the website’s speed). Unfortunately, Starcity is either not in the position to do this or is allocating their budget elsewhere, which means trying to cut bandwidth costs in other ways.

If Starcity uses legal recourse to cut server bandwidth overutilization rather than put the funds towards upgrading their server capacity, which could be argued to be the cornerstone of their business then there may be other motivating factors at work. This leads me to believe there are business considerations for going after tools like Dawnglare. I am not alone in this analysis of the cease and desist letter.

The other reading of the situation is that Starcity is not only protecting their data from a technological perspective, they are also protecting their data from a business perspective. This issue is centered around whether or not Starcity went too far in persecuting Dawnglare for creating a tool to scrape their prices. From a legal perspective, could you define any type of data on your website as “valuable rights of the organization”? Is the information considered public or private if anyone with an internet connection and the website address can access the information? Whether or not it is public is not up to me to determine, only someone with a better understanding of business and internet law can make that determination. When looking at the website though, anyone can access Starcity’s sell prices- all you need to do is go to starcitygames.com and and start typing.

Even this set of questions brings up another question – does this mean that you are already agreeing to Starcity’s terms of service just by executing searches against the information that they make available on their website? Since you don’t have to actively agree to anything in order to just search for the sell prices, this could definitely be contentious when arguing whether or not issuing a cease and desist is the right call.

After considering all the information as we have it, the next issue is whether or not a programmatic search through a tool like Dawnglare, even though it may execute hundreds or thousands of searches per minute, has the same rights and merits as a manual search executed by a single user. It could actually boil down to the rights of the user to access a particular amount of data on the website, measured in kilobytes, which is really the only difference between the tool and a normal website user. If the tool really is causing negative harm to Starcity (for example having them complete extra server maintenance due to all the extra searches from a single source) then there is an argument to taking down the tool – after all, DDOSing a website is a real thing and can wreak massive havoc on any web service.

From the community’s perspective on all this, Starcity does not appear to be operating any slower than usual, so there must be something going on behind the scenes that Starcity does in order to balance out the extra load from the scraping tools. Maybe not though. It could just be that they are trying to protect what they perceive as their business model.

Circling back to the cease and desist, the real issue is that Starcity is trying to stop application scraping of their website through third party applications and whether or not their outlined legal explanation (as per user dawnGlare on Reddit) is powerful enough to stop this type of behavior in the future. Since I a not a lawyer, I can’t give a grounded legal argument for continuing or discontinuing the scraping of information that is outside of the website’s terms of service, but it is interesting at this point in time that Starcity is cracking down on applications. I’m not even sure if Dawnglare is the first site they’ve contacted about this issue. There could be others out there who have decided to shutter their applications once they received the letter.

In addition, I think it is intriguing that Starcity is choosing to enforce their rights against someone who is not just scraping buylist prices, but sell prices as well. I’m not sure why the sell price in particular needs to locked down. In order to access buylist prices for Starcity you need to log into the website and agree to their terms by clicking a specific button. This can easily be linked to agreeing to their terms of service – the terms are on the prompt before the buylist. Whether or not this information should also be heavily protected behind this type of agreement can also be debated, since the buylist information can also technically be accessed by anyone because technically anyone can create an account with Starcity and access the buylist. Starcity most likely put that road block in place in order to easily shut down accounts that were created strictly for applications that intend to scrape buylist information.

The real root question here is why does Starcity care so much about people mining its sell price information? Do they have so much sway that if they change their sell prices it could possibly create a market-wide shift, ultimately interfering with their business practices? I will definitely be following this case in the future to see what happens, because the outcome could have major impacts on the way that people access card price information if other organizations follow suit.

The outcome of the Dawnglare website cease and desist notification will have implications for buylists and possibly more going forward. It might even spark conversation on the power that Starcity wields over the market and the lengths that they will go to protect their market position. It could also mean that in the future other stores may start locking down their website information, which further and further separates the movements of big box Magic stores from the community. I’m personally against restricting access to information, however with private organizations my opinions don’t matter and at the end of the day. It comes down to the fact that an organization should have a way to protect their data.

But how far is too far? I think that is question that everyone is trying to answer, in order to find a happy medium between Starcity operating as a business and other third-party tool creators wanting to use their data in order to create more valuable applications for the Magic community. After all, we all love this game – we all want to see it succeed both through Wizards and the stores that support them. I hope that both parties are able to resolve the dispute amicably and in a way that still benefits the Magic community at large.

Casual Fridays

Cents and Sensibility

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By: Cliff Daigle

I made it to an FNM a couple of weeks ago, and had a powerful lesson in value.

Here’s my trade partner, telling me he wants to build a Standard dragon deck. I try to steer him into EDH dragons, preferably with Bladewing the Risen, but he’s having none of it.

He takes an assortment of dragons out of my binder and I know none of them are expensive. There’s an M14 Shivan Dragon in the stack! Why did I even put that in a page? How long has that been sitting in there, dead weight in my binder? Bladewing the Risen

He breaks out his smartphone and begins building the trade. $1.20 here, $2.10 there…then he adds the Shivan and says “Whoa. Your side of the trade just went up to $90.”

I tell him to check editions. I could see an Alpha or Beta Shivan being pricey. That’s iconic art and if you played before 1998, Shivan was the finisher of casual decks everywhere. As a teenager, I referred to the Melissa Benson art as “Mr. Happy.”

He taps his phone a couple of times and squints. “Thirty cents is the mid.” I tell him I’m not surprised and we move forward.

He ends up taking a couple of other things as well, and I get a Nykthos for my trouble.

This story has two takeaways.

First of all, don’t ever underestimate how the small cards can add up if you’re trading with someone who likes to put every price in. Frankly, I would have just added the Shivan to a trade and called it worthless. That thirty cents; it’s value I never ever ever would have expected. No one is actually buying Shivan Dragons from M14. 30 cents is less than the stamp it takes to mail it. It’s bulk – but I’m getting more than bulk rates in trade.

Second, you want to take every chance you can to turn ten dimes into a dollar. Whenever you can turn ten one-dollar cards into one ten-dollar card, do it. The reason you want to do this is because you’re rarely going to meet people who want all ten of those cards and who will give you retail value for them. Thespian's Stage

If you’re speculating on cards and don’t want to trade your specs away, I get that. I’ve got 23 Thespian’s Stage that I wouldn’t trade for five Temple Gardens. I’d think about it, but I’d probably decline.

But I would much rather have one Nykthos than a Shivan Dragon, a Scourge of Valkas, a Hellkite Tyrant, and some other dragons I can’t recall.

On a related note, I think Nykthos is a solid pickup right now around $10. We have had a taste of how good the devotion decks are now with only Theros available. How much better will those decks be with two more sets? We have a Block Constructed Pro Tour in May and I would guess we will see a lot of devotion there.

Also, I want to call attention to Xenagos and Elspeth: The two new Planeswalker cards are finally coming down in price. I’ve advocated patience with new cards before, and while they see a little play, it’s not enough to justify a high price. If Xenagos gets to $10, I’ll go after him with zeal – I’ve managed to get him into play in EDH and he’s a house. Elspeth has followed a similar trend of creeping downwards, due to low Standard inclusion. She’s another card that is outstanding in any casual format you care to name, as a token maker and as a ‘destroy all big creatures’ condition. It seems that it’s mainly casual demand keeping her price up, but one big tournament and she’ll break $30 again.

City of Traders

A Pass Through Standard

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By: Travis Allen

This week I’ll be discussing some recent Standard tournament results, as well as a few other items worthy of our attention.

@OwenTweetenwald’s win in Albuquerque gave him back-to-back GP wins, an exclusive club indeed. He took it down with Mono-black, which was a popular theme over the weekend. Paul Reitzel, who placed 8th, tweeted this on Monday afternoon. It was a good weekend to be putting swamps into play.

Capture

With a whopping four Mono-black decks in the top 8, alongside three Mono-blue, there was barely a Shockland in sight. What there was, though, was 46 Mutavaults in the top 16. That means that 71% of Mutavaults that could have been played, were played. This type of saturation of a single card in Standard is not common at all. I don’t even think Lightning Bolt reached that level of play when it was in M10 and M11 . Cards like Stoneforge Mystic and Jace, the Mind Sculptor reach 70% saturation rate. Mutavault

What that means for your weekend is that the roughly $20 price tag is going to be very stable going forward. The card is as legitimate in Standard this time around as it was last time, so don’t be afraid to pick up a playset. If this changeling presence persists, expect a price uptick in a few weeks when PTQ season starts in earnest, or possibly even sooner.

While not nearly as heavily played, but still pervasive, Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx snuck its way into many of the Mono-X lists. Most were committed to the full set of Mutavaults, with a single Nykthos rounding out the colorless-land package. That is the current soup-de-jour, but could easily be turned on its head depending on how things shake out. A 4-1 split tells me the deck can support 5 colorless lands, and right now Mutavault is the better choice.

How much would it take to shift that? Anything that pushes the deck to go a little larger would probably want Nykthos more than Mutavault. Anything with an X in the mana cost would certainly accomplish that. Rakdos’ Return? Gaze of Granite? Debt to the Deathless? Immortal Servitude? Mind Grind?

Return lets “mono” black fireball out opponents, as well as apply heavy pressure in the midgame against control decks and attrition mirrors. As a mythic it is set up to see a healthy price increase should it become popular. Mind Grind is spicy, basically being lethal when X is around 15, an easy number for Nykthos-fueled madness to reach. Grind could conceivably hit $3, being that the card is still $1 purely on casual mill demand. This makes me think that Mind Grind may not be bad throw-in material. Even if it totally whiffs in Standard, Nemesis of Reason is a $6 card today.

Even if nothing within the current card pool pushes the decks to go heavier on Nykthos, Born of the Gods may very well provide us with the necessary ingredients. We’ve got a lot of devotion enablers to go, as well as 10 lesser deities to appease, which means you’ve got plenty to be faithful to. With Cavern of Souls having been $20-30 in Standard, and Mutavault solidly at $20 right now with an expectation of growth, there is precedent for Nykthos to climb. We’ll return to it a little later on. Master of Waves

Beyond the Mutavault supremacy, what else is going on? Mono-blue is still packed to the gills with Masters of Waves and Thassas. Both have slipped in price recently, but I expect this to be temporary. I’m guessing one or both will be over $15 this time next fall, when Theros is no longer the current major set. I’ve started looking for Master of Waves in every trade binder I flip through.

Hero’s Downfall stubbornly remains at $10+. That a utility removal spell in a single format would command that high a price tag sort of amazes me, but I suppose when it’s the best removal in arguably the best color, it’s going to be more than pocket change. Perhaps I should be looking to Dreadbore to better understand how Murderbore will behave. Dreadbore has never managed to sink below $2-3, even with as close to zero relevant play as a card of that stripe could see. This would tell us that Murderbore’s floor should be about the same. If we think of Murderbore as having a floor of $3, then a $10 price tag while seeing play in nearly 50% of the top 8 decks doesn’t seem as unreasonable.

I advocated selling a few weeks ago when it was $15, but I think it’s low enough that you could trade for a set without feeling bad about it. Given that it’s only one color, and therefore considerably more versatile than Dreadbore, it’s possible the number we get aggressive is around $6-7. The number of Burning-Tree Emissarys in Standard necessary to make Murderbore bad would be quite high indeed.

The Naya deck in the top 8 showed that competitive Magic players haven’t forgotten about RtR block. It had a full compliment of a lovely singing voice, reminding everyone that at one point it may actually have been worth its current absurd price tag. At this point, if you still have any, I’d hold onto them. With the PTQ season around the corner, the card has a better chance of spiking again than fading away with no more price increases.

Advent of the Wurm was also four-of, a card I’m still carrying a torch for. Perhaps more interesting was the four Soldier of the Pantheon. Everyone has figured out by now that the card is good, but his price is pretty low all things considered. I’d be looking to snap these up in trade right now at ~$2. Champion of the Parish was $8 at one point, and I’d say Soldier has a better chance of seeing Modern play. Mind Grind

Boros Reckoner has been on a roller coaster ride lately. It was as high as $20 what feels like a week ago, and copies are available for under $11 again. I have to imagine this gets close to $20 once more before we sunset RtR. If you can trade for them at retail go for it, but good luck convincing someone they’re that cheap again.

Over on the Starcity side of things, Matt Costa rose to the top of the field piloting a Jund deck. Reaper of the Wilds as a three-of immediately jumped out to me, proving its capability as a strong midrange card. Both Pat Chapin and Kibler had mentioned it recently, but without tournament results it was hard to know if it was real. I doubt the card is going to reach $10 or anything, but $4-$6 doesn’t seem unreasonable. (Were you aware Cyclonic Rift is now $4?) This is another one that I wouldn’t dish out cash for, but you should be able to steal copies in trade for $1 or less. Look for an article in the future about how to turn small gains in trade binder value value into real profit.

Abrupt Decay was also out in full force. Can this card break $10 during Modern season? It may be tough, as the Standard PTQ season will have ended, and many will be willing to liquidate their inventory. Next Modern PTQ season should be a good time for Decay though. A few months ago I predicted that foil Decay would be $60 within one year of RtR rotating. Do you have your set?

Back to Nykthos, last week I talked about a Modern Mono-green deck that looked awfully spicy. It was even one of LSV’s daily decks recently. Included in that same link from Bing Luke was a Mono-Black deck. Since then, Phyrexian Obliterator has increased about 25%, and common sentiment is that it probably isn’t done yet. Apparently, the Magic community is willing to consider Nykthos a real thing in Modern.

With that in mind, I want to look at the green deck a little more closely. It’s got a lot going on we can be interested in. What stands out most to me is four Genesis Wave. Wave is about $2 on its own merit, with no competitive interest, putting it in a low tier of “casual cards with enough demand to raise the price above bulk.” If the deck catches fire, Wave could easily hit $5-6, and depending on how wild the speculation is, $10+ is possible, although that would be a very short term price unless the deck puts up results.

That brings me to an important aside: cards spike all the time. The ones that stay high are the ones in decks good enough to be worth it. If a card like Genesis Wave spikes, sell immediately. The likelihood that the deck is good enough to support whatever number it reaches, rather than being a flash-in-the-pan that trickles to $3 eventually, is very very low. Genesis Wave

Beyond Genesis Wave, there are three copies of Primeval Titan. He’s sitting at around $6-$7 at the moment. Seeing play in a deck like this could bump him up closer to $10, and with Nykthos in the format, he may eventually become a little more of a mainstay. Fetching Valakut is typically a better use of his trigger, but remember that having Valakut in your deck doesn’t get P Tats into play any faster, while Nykthos does. Maybe we see a Valakut/Nykthos deck? Who knows.

Cloudstone Curio is a big part of the deck as well, at $5-$6. The card popped to over $10 early this summer, so there’s precedent on a jump. I’d try and grab your set soon. Garruk Wildspeaker is also a major component, but he’s been printed six times, which will help suppress his value. He may see a small uptick, but with that much volume available, it will be tough for him to move too far.

Before I go, check out this completed eBay auction. How many of you even knew these existed, much less cost that much?

Have a great Thanksgiving everyone.

MAGIC: THE GATHERING FINANCE ARTICLES AND COMMUNITY