Are you not impressed?

Okay, so people are really down about the new Liliana.  I’m not so pessimistic about her chances of being good.  Let’s look at some hard data.

This is every three mana planeswalker ever printed in Magic.  For argument’s sake, I’ve included the 3-mana flip walkers from Magic Origins.  By my memory, the only two cards here that did not see significant play were Ajani,Caller of the Pride and Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh.  The other eight planeswalkers were pretty close to staples at some point during their lifetime.

So if we just go by the odds, 80% is a pretty high rate of success on 3-mana Planeswalkers.  The fact that three of the four most recent ones have also been successes leads me to believe there may be more than meets the eye on Liliana, the Last Hope.  My look on the card right now as a player –  I’d buy four copies instantly for $10 without giving much of a second thought.  I’d probably consider buying them at $15.  If I was sure I needed them day 1, I wouldn’t be opposed to spending $20 on my copies.  I don’t want to try to sell you on Liliana but I am pretty sure I’m happy paying 3 mana for a Gravedigger since that’s most of what Liliana, Defiant Necromancer did anyway.  And you have to jump through less hoops.

I think Oath of Liliana is a fine card but right now it will likely be relegated to bulk duty.  Similar to Oath of Gideon, Oath of Jace, and Oath of Chandra – this Oath costs a little too much mana to be a reliable card to play in Standard.  It will often nab a token, a 1 mana 2/1 human, or 3-drop that someone only paid two mana for because it was put into play with Collected Company.  I think casually these will be worth a nice bit because it finishes the cycle.  I’d expect them to be $2-3 in 2 years so it will be a great card to throw in a box and forget you own.

Well I never thought I’d see Liliana on art for a white card but here we are.  This card is going to either be busted or a casual all star.  As such, I wouldn’t recommend doing anything with copies you open for a year or so.  There’s almost no upside to move any of your copies before the PT.  That being said, I am not sure what they will pre-order for but I have a feeling the number will be a trap.  Due to how many mythics are typically in pre-constructed decks (like Commander, Duel decks, etc) I don’t see this card having a high chance of getting reprinted.  It’s going to be a blue chip stock for years due to being a small set mythic.  Think Akroma’s Memorial.

This isn’t Craterhoof Behemoth and you have to non-bo and sac a guy to get the 7/7.  There are worse things but It’s not terribly hard to fit this into a G/W Tokens sideboard or as a finisher in Cryptolith Rite deck.  I’m not bullish on his ability to emerge as a top tier standard card.  He will probably be a $5 EDH card for a few years.

This guy may or may not be the truth.  He has a lot going for him when you think of him as a Mistbind Clique.  You get to tap down their lands and then brick their attacks with a sizeable 5/6 body.  Flash and Emerge are a match made in heaven so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Eldrazi Skyspawner or Matter Reshaper being turned into an Elder Deep-Fiend.  It does cost 8 so you probably can’t play a ton of them without it clogging up your hand but it does give you an exceptionally cheap way to trigger Kozilek’s Return and Sanctum of Ugin.  I’m probably going to try to order a set for $10.

I am less excited about this guy but he is awkwardly very good against collected company decks.  He can grab a Company and the cards that Company hits.  So he’s in this awkward spot where he’s best against an opponent that has a very good hand already.  Black isn’t a color I’m thrilled to play at the moment but this guy may find his time in the spotlight.  I wouldn’t be disappointed paying $1 for this.

Yeah whatever man more black cards.  Okay this is a really weird card because it’s extremely powerful but the casting cost restrictions are so ass-backwards with the last set.  The aggressive vampires deck theoretically wants to play early red mana because the red vampires are better at the lower points in the curve but the most powerful vampires out of this set have heavy black requirements.  Voldaren Pariah is certainly much better than Incorrigible Youths if you can figure out how to cast it.  Which then leads to the question – is this even a card that kind of deck wants to play?  I think it looks much better paying the full retail in a Cryptolith Rite deck and then binning some Eldrazi Scions to kill their army of 2/3s.  You’re left with a 6/5 flying creature which is rather large.  I’m not sure where we end up but I think there are some lines to make this card very good.  If its the kind of card you’d like to play $3 seems like a good pre-order price.

This is a rare.  Not a mythic.  Remember that when you go to pre-order a bunch of copies.  It won’t be this expensive in a few months, especially if it doesn’t pan out in Modern.   I think this will be a relatively shallow role player but it could see a big spike with Modern adoption.  If you’re a casual player and want one for EDH just wait until Kaladesh spoilers.  You’ll likely be able to find them for $5-8 unless they break out in Modern.

In Standard I don’t see this really making waves because it will likely just upgrade your guy that can get Reflector Mage’d into another guy that will probably get Reflector Mage’d.    I’m not expecting it to be as ubiquitous as Collected Company.  I’m not buying them for more than $5 and I’m selling during the Pro Tour.

Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is played as 4 copies in multiple different Standard decks.  I’m not sure Tamiyo can be support as more than 2 of in a few decks.  As such I think any of the pre-order price tags above $10 are pretty insane.  This card’s planeswalker tax is a little too high for me at the moment.  I think it’s likely she ends up in the $8-12 range as a support walker like Ob Nixilis, Reignited.  She will probably be a bit more than Ob because she’s in the summer set.

This guy will also probably be a bulk mythic near release but I think he’s got some possibility of being good in Standard.  He blocks Avacyn and Gisela reasonably.  His delerium trigger makes him less embarassing than Gitrog Monster against Reflector Mage.  And although his activate ability is pretty expensive, it’s not terribly unreasonable that you might activate a few times to finish a game.  Green and Black decks have typically enjoyed mana sinks no matter how “bad” they may seem.  This card might slot into the Sultai Midrange deck as a way to combat pesky humans with Gryff’s Boon.  I’m expecting foils to be expensive but I wouldn’t be surprised if he holds a $3-5 price tag in Standard while it’s dominated by Angels.

Here’s another way to not timewalk yourself while flipping your werewolves.  It’s kinda cute that you can Collected Company into him for a few months.  I’m not sure this is the missing link to push our lycanthrope friends over the top.  I imagine it will be a solid $1-2 casual card.  The rate for the creature isn’t terrible but it’s got much less utility than Bounding Krasis.

I guess this is another way to discard a Fiery Temper?  If we get some 0 mana madness cards that aren’t embarrassing then the stock of this spell goes up greatly.  It’s got some reasonable modes for 2 mana so I wouldn’t be surprised to see people discard lands to drain their opponent.  This seems like a solid role player.  I would pick up a set after release and try to stick around $1.

Final Thoughts

• This set looks really good, much like Oath of the Gatewatch.  I’d keep a close eye on supply and buy the cheaper rares and mythics in a few months before Kaladesh spoilers start.
• We’re only a month away from the release of Conspiracy 2.  I have to imagine money crunch is going to be worse than Magic Origins last year.