Depending on local player population, a vendor may have higher demand for certain cards. Perhaps there’s a strong Commander population locally. Or perhaps a shop runs successful Legacy events on a weekly basis. Other shops may have tremendous Standard turnouts.
No matter the niche, this trend can evolve into interesting price differentials. One of my favorite ways to track these differentials is via the “Hotlist”. The Hotlist has become a mainstream strategy for a vendor to showcase the cards they are currently searching for with what they feel are higher-than-average buy prices. Used effectively, it’s an excellent way to draw wandering players at large tournaments while also filling voids in stock.
One of my favorite stores – ABU Games – has had a Hotlist on their site ever since I started using them a few years ago. Whether or not those hot prices are truly competitive is a separate matter.
Nowadays it seems you can’t visit a vendor’s booth without seeing a hotlist posted on a whiteboard somewhere. What’s more, these lists have started getting the attention of a broader MTG Finance crowd. Now I don’t even have to attend an event to monitor what certain vendors are actively chasing; I just watch my Twitter feed and each weekend the pictures come pouring in.
Over the past couple weeks, I’ve noticed something I want to point out. From there, I want to deep dive into my hypothesis for why this trend has surfaced and wrap up with where I think it’s going from here.
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So you get all that? Wizards of the Coast is now moving to a new product announcement schedule (once in the spring and once in the fall) and announcing the whole next block and supplemental products. What does that mean for us? Well there won’t be any speculation or leaks coming before anyone would otherwise know. If there’s a Modern Masters 2017 (as many assume), we will find out in September.
Well what do we know about Kaladesh?
It’s the home plane of Chandra Nalaar. Presumably she will be the focal point of the story.
These cards are also from Kaladesh. The blue and red thopter themed cards from Magic Origins give us a glimpse into what kind of world Kaladesh will probably be.
This art piece from the art book shows a very steam punk feeling with an unusual mechanical elephant. While I can only hope that elephant is some how the reincarnation of Siege Rhino, it is clear there will be heavy artifact theme in Kaladesh. Clue tokens will be particularly useful if there is a mechanic that cares about how many artifacts you have. Examples are Affinity for Artifacts and Metalcraft, the former of which is almost certainly not in the set. Outside of artifact synergies and some colorless synergies I don’t know what else may come from the set.
Intro Packs/Planeswalker Decks
That’s not the only thing Kaladesh is bringing us. Planeswalker decks (mock up pictured above) are going to replace Intro Packs for new sets starting with Kaladesh. These decks will be similar to the 30 card starter packs that are given for free to new players. The two decks will be 2 color themed Planeswalker decks and include 4 new cards not available in the corresponding expansion set. In Mark Rosewater’s article, here, he explains that these cards should not be good enough to see competitive play but rather be very flashy for casual play. I think it’s only a matter of time before a planeswalker in these decks is just a tiny bit too strong and it will be very expensive. Preconstructed decks being the only source of a card has bit Wizards of the Coast in the butt before. True-Name Nemesis was the worst case scenario where it was only included in 1 of 5 decks (and you have to order cases in sets of 5 decks). While these cards may not be financially relevant upon release, I would recommend looking to pick these planeswalkers up casually in trade because there is definitely a lot of collector value for Planeswalkers even if they’re not good.
Fat Packs
Fat packs are also being renamed to “Set Bundles.” Starting with Kaladesh bundle, there is a slight increase in MSRP (to $43) and a few more boosters (up to 10 now) but not much else changes. I don’t think this will make this any more or less attractive of a buy. Nonetheless, it is important to note the changes.
Nissa vs. Ob Nixilis
The next duel deck was announced. Unfortunately they did not include either of the Planeswalker cards outside of the new art. I have to imagine that these decks will include Nissa, Voice of Zendikar and Ob Nixilis, Reignited but Wizards has suprised me before on lesser things. At this point I don’t think you fire sale your Nissas or Ob Nixilis because they will still Presumably be very good until the release of the duel deck in 4 months. Walker vs Walker duel decks typically sell better than Stuff vs Guys duel decks but both walkers see enough play they won’t tank.
Commander 2016 was announced to have 4 color commanders. That’s about it. I wouldn’t recommend buying Nephilim (the only 4 color cards) because they’re not particularly good even if you’re playing those colors. Commander is Jason Alt’s forte so I will leave it to him to update you later in the week on things to pick up in preparation.
There’s some weird cards in Planechase. It has the original printings of Baleful Strix and Shardless Agent. Outside of those two, not many competitive cards are from Planechase. I wouldn’t expect any influx of expensive Legacy or Modern cards but if you need some weird stuff for your cube from these sets I would wait. I think it’s entirely possible that Shardless Agent ends up in this or the Commander release this year.
Guys, they’re getting rid of the “Ae” compound letter (that was previously used on cards like Æther Flash). That’s pretty much all of the news for this set. We don’t know a whole lot about Kaladesh so I am not going to even begin to speculate on a set we know even less about.
This Weekend
If you play a lot of Modern and don’t own Grafdigger’s Cages yet you will be very sad very soon. The Modern Open in Indianapolis sported 22 copies in the top 32 decks. That is the 10th most popular card in an extremely diverse field and the 2nd most popular dedicated sideboard card after Nature’s Claim. This is a rare from Dark Ascension so the supply will be low enough to see a quick and violent price correction soon. It allows any deck to cheaply interact with Nahiri, flashback (Snapcaster Mage and Lingering Souls), Chord of Calling, Collected Company, and Goryo’s Vengeance.
Nahiri is still the top of the heap as a the fastest way to win a game in Modern. She’s got a very flexible removal mode, decent card selection ability, and an ultimate that wins the game almost instantly. I don’t expect to see her south of $20 anytime soon so if you need copies to play I don’t expect to get them cheap until December. With Modern PPTQ season creeping up you may be best served investing sooner than later as we hit the 3 set stride which will cause less Shadows over Innistrad to be opened.
If Modern isn’t your thing, Standard is pretty cheap right now. I played a sub $300 deck to the top 8 of the SCG Classic in Indianapolis last weekend. I could have probably won if I didn’t have to get to the airport to get home. As long as you don’t want to play Grixis Control or GW Tokens, most decks can be built for $300 or less which is a far cry from the “Grand Standard” with fetch lands. If you’d like to play my list, you can find it here.
Going with a bunch of small topics today, rather than one big one. You know the drill by now.
ANALYTICS VS PERCEPTION: One of the biggest differences between Magic and other sports (YES, I SAID IT JOCKS. COME AT ME.) is that Magic has a fear of analytics. This is not a new phenomenon; WotC actively tried to obscure information as early as Alpha, putting an Island on the rare sheet and not publicly disclosing set lists or rarities. Currently, Wizards is throttling results coming from Magic Online as a means of slowing the solution of constructed formats (that we are also in a downturn in large paper events is coincidental, but adds to the issue). Sports, on the other hand, is experiencing a renaissance of sorts based on analytics-driven content and the ubiquity of fantasy sports.
Fantasy sports WOULD be cooler if Monster Manuals were involved.
The major difference, of course, is the pieces that are used to play the game. Professional athletes are playing mostly-solved games (“score more points!”), with differences in strategy and philosophy that are largely just nuance compared to the classic match-up of Red Deck Wins versus Blue-White Control. There is also a large industry built on the generation, analysis, and applications of the statistics generated by games played, both internally and among the public. In the case of Magic, the crunching of those types of numbers is believed to have a teleological outcome of winnowing down the viability of various archetypes until the format in question is “solved” (either in the case of there being only one “REAL” deck, or there being an equally unfavorable ‘Rock-Paper-Scissors’ scenario). Also, whereas sports teams and leagues are selling the product on the field, Wizards is more accurately selling the players. It’s in WotC’s best interest for you to think that there are lots of good cards available, and know nebulously that some are better than others, but once there is a clear best, it diminishes sales, attendance, and interest (or so they say).
What is interesting to me right now is what fills the void in this circumstance. Esper Dragons had a Top 8 spot in the Pro Tour, and just won the GP in Canada. Sounds like a good deck, right? Except that those two results are actually outliers in the broader context- of ten Esper Dragons players at the PT, the Top 8 deck was the only one to even make Day Two. Similarly, the Esper Dragons decks that didn’t make the Top 8 in Toronto did terribly. The perception that this deck is good, heck even just playable, is backed up by perceived results and simultaneously refuted by analytics.
Is Dragonlord Ojutai elite?
Those of you who remember Ghost Dad1 from Ravnica standard will see the correlation- a deck that was over-represented relative to both its quality and power level (even in relation to similar decks such as Hand in Hand). Of course, Magic’s community is much more connected and communicative than it was back then, so these incongruencies are likely to be solved, but it is an interesting quirk to the current system.
Let me know what you think about this- is Esper Dragons just bad, or is it yet to be optimized? How much should WotC allow in terms of information that can be mined for data? Is it better or worse for the game?
DREDGING UP THE PAST: Today is the absolute last chance to buy in on Golgari Grave-Troll, Bloodghast, and any of those other Modern staples if you haven’t already. I’m not sure that this is one of the best decks in the format yet (more on that later), but when Dredge is good it is GOOD.
Here is your real target right now- Duel Decks: Izzet vs Golgari.
Duel Decks: Overrated Guild vs Underrated Guild
Check and see if your store has any of these left floating around (this is not the one with Remand, so your odds are better of stumbling across them). This box has Life From the Loam, Isochron Scepter, Eternal Witness, Golgari Grave-Troll, Golgari Thug, a FOIL Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind, as well as a bunch of cheap but playable in casual rares like Doomgape and Gleancrawler. Buying these at $20 is a steal, considering that the Loam and GGT are about to put you even already. Golgari Thug is often a 4x in Dredge, and I’m pretty sure you get two of them. There are even Pauper staples in here!
Sadly the only supplemental product with a Bloodghast in it also had Verdant Catacombs, so you probably won’t find any of those anywhere in the wild (if you do, look for Rat’s Nest also).
Some of these Dredge decks appear to also be playing Prized Amalgam, but that is probably going to be one of the last things to tick up as there are no other real points of demand. It also doesn’t seem like the deck NEEDS that card to succeed, so it could possibly be cut (the deck doesn’t need a threshold of black creatures since we don’t have access to Ichorid).
Now, here’s the next level play- memorize that set symbol.
Wait, Stinky is in this set too?! Holy cow!
It’s unlikely that your local [BIG BOX RETAIL STORE] has any of these in boxes left, but it’s POSSIBLE that the cards are still available there. Most national big box chains don’t actually buy product from WotC, they instead deal with middle-man distributors, who are in charge of managing the supply. These are the folks who stock and restock, and who often remove old product that gets repackaged or otherwise reintegrated into their system. One of their ways of moving this repossessed product is through clear boxes that typically contain 4 opened pre-constructed products. These aren’t official WotC offerings, but are instead the distributors unloading stuff that they don’t have a use for. If you keep your set symbols list handy, you are likely to see that maybe a few of these are left in the mix.
WHAT IT TAKES IN MODERN: This is somewhat related to the last two topics. How many decks are there in Modern? According to my preferred Top 8s aggregator (MTGDecks.net), there are exactly fifty listed archetypes (one of which being the catch-all classification of “Rogue”). If we assume that all of these decks are equal in both their quality of construction and pilot AND equally represented in a given field (they aren’t),then each deck has a 2% chance of winning [TOURNAMENT X]2. But given that that isn’t the case, it is important understand that the decks that are higher than 2% are pulling away from other decks, rather than staying at an artificial floor of 2%.
Barring extreme examples like the Eldrazi decks from PT Oath, Modern decks are not going to have the same high percentages of Standard decks, just because there are so many more options. If there are ten real decks in Standard (some formats have had more, some have had less), then your theoretical floor is 10%. For a Modern deck to reach 10%, it would have to entirely invalidate four different archetypes to the point that they are effectively 0%.
Smashing reality AND the status quo.
The best case for us as finance-minded folk is for that wobbling top of 2% equity to not topple over- meaning that the most amount of cards have at least a percentage of the market as a whole. Of course, this also reinforces my personal philosophy of not buying too deeply into Modern, because you’re either betting on new decks to enter into the pie chart (further reducing that percentage), or upsetting it by causing one deck to overtake points from so many others and spiking (which can, as recent experience tells us, result in a significant banning).
Let me know what you think about this last topic, as we are going to be going pretty deep into it next week. For science!
Best,
Ross
1A deck name that has only gotten worse given current events.
