Tag Archives: Standard

PROTRADER: Standardize (Not the Onslaught One)

Today we are going to talk about Standard. Not entirely focusing on this particular format (as in, the current Standard environment), but rather the structural mechanics that keep the system moving. Standard is worth discussing, even if you don’t play it, for these reasons, because they are the essential underpinning of the majority of Magic Finance’s activity.

Standard, unlike all other formats (currently), has a bottom in rotation. Once cards rotate out, the majority of them become devalued due to lack of demand and larger application. This is even often the case with format-defining cards like Thragtusk and Boros Reckoner. The trade-off, however, is that Standard is the de facto constructed format, and the overwhelming majority of constructed events are Standard. Subsequently, there is always a high amount of content generated on Standard (even during times when the format itself is less than healthy), which both helps feed and generate demand. From a tournament organizer perspective, I can tell you that it is infinitely safer to guarantee attendance to a Standard event than any other format.

Of course, you probably knew all of this already.

Let’s start by defining and identifying some key markers in Standard, and then evaluate what they mean for the format as a whole.

Critical Mass: A concept that gets mentioned primarily during deck-building process is critical mass. This is the idea of having a threshold quantity of cards that do either the same or very similar things. In current Standard, I would say that we have a critical mass of white 2/1s, a la Dragon Hunter, Kytheon, Hero of Akros, and Expedition Envoy. Now, while these cards themselves do not comprise the entirety of an archetype, they do strongly enable the White Weenie strategy by ensuring one or more copies in a statistically significant percentage of opening hands. The magic number for “must have” effects in deck construction is 8.51, and having 12 allows you to play the full set of the two best, and then enough of the rest to suit your needs. Knowing what your critical mass effects are give you an early indicator of what archetypes are likely to be viable in the low-information period that is a new format. The interesting part is that the critical mass pieces are not always the gainer in that situation- rather, cards like Always Watching and Gideon, Ally of Zendikar are the financial winners because they push the strategy over the top (while conveniently representing a critical mass of playable “Anthem” effects).

I'll make this same joke again later.
I’ll make this same joke again later.

Bottlenecks: This is not really the opposite of a critical mass, but it’s kind of similar? Bottlenecks represent obstacles that define the format. I mentioned these briefly a couple weeks back, but I think it bears repeating here. Bottlenecks, both literally and metaphorically, represent elements that restrict the flow and development of the game. The most important of these is the de facto Wrath of God effect of the format, which helps regulate the tempo of an environment and dictates the pace with which aggressive strategies must operate. The current best Wrath variant is Languish, which, while conditional, lands fast enough and kills such a significant percentage of the playable creatures in the format, that it gets the nod. It’s worth mentioning that Black is also currently the best removal color (in having access to things like Ultimate Price, Ruinous Path, etc).

Knowing where your bottlenecks are, specifically the bar for Wrath effects, has a lot of secondary effects. Valuing effects like Haste (which, to be fair, is always really good) and Indestructible is colored by the point at which all of your other stuff goes bye-bye, as well as things like toughness relative to things like Languish.

Many of the control strategies from PT:SOI leaned heavily on Languish, meaning that it is overperforming relative to its cousins. Planar Outburst, which was the second-most played such effect, was considered by many to be too difficult to cast reliably, both because it was WW and because it was at five and not four. Given that we have a year with Planar Outburst and only six months with Languish, it’s worth wondering if Planar Outburst will fill a sufficient amount of Languish’s market share come rotation- the need for that effect will always be there, and Planar Outburst is our current second best option. With Languish currently around $9 and Planar Outburst below $1, there is a demonstrable gap in price that is only explained by current viability. If Planar Outburst steps into the role of “best Wrath effect” as Languish rotates (and BFZ stops getting printed!), then it’s not crazy to think that the card could climb to $4-$5 range (conservatively half of Languish’s price since it’s coming from a much larger and more popular set, but still an impressive gain). This is all assuming, of course, that the next Fall set does not have a wrath effect that is strictly better than Planar Outburst.

Can a worse card benefit from a better situation?
Can a worse card benefit from a better situation?

Identifying System Players: Remember earlier when I mentioned Thragtusk and Boros Reckoner? Those are cards that I have long referred to as Broodstars, but will now term “system players”. These are cards that only end up excelling in Standard (or even just a particular point in their total Standard lifetime), and don’t end up making the leap to Modern, Legacy, Cube, or Commander. One of the most easily quantifiable indicators of a system player is their mana cost- larger formats exert a higher degree of pressure on converted mana cost because the critical turn decreases as size increases. Standard is more forgiving than Modern, just as Modern is to Legacy, and Legacy to Vintage. While Vintage is not a “Turn 1 Kill” format as people often demonize it to be, you definitely have to have your crap together more quickly than in Standard.

The next characteristic is to pinpoint if a card is the “best available”- which works both positively and negatively. Reaver Drone is currently the best black turn one 2/1 in Standard, by virtue of being the ONLY black turn one 2/1. Once you look to Modern, however, Reaver Drone immediately becomes outclassed by cards like Gravecrawler, which is in (almost) all scenarios the better card. Conversely, if you NEED a B 2/1 for Standard, then Reaver Drone is your guy. This is how Heir of the Wilds ended up getting so much play, for what it’s worth.

Finally, is a card reacting to pressures or synergies unique to the current Standard environment? Thragtusk was very famously concepted as an “answer” to Vapor Snag, which in retrospect seems like bringing a Terminator T-800 to a knife fight.

Always carry two spears.
Always carry two spears.

Broodstar was best in the Affinity decks that existed prior to the printing of Arcbound Ravager, and almost immediately invalidated after the release of Darksteel. Great Sable Stag, probably the best of the misfit toys that we’ve mentioned so far, is in many environments (especially ones with Lightning Bolt) just a Gnarled Mass (which some people will tell you is still a great card).

I mean, he's not wrong.
I mean, he’s not wrong.

These cards are different, however, from narrow role-players. Things like Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and Nissa, Voice of Zendikar are not likely to have wide playability in formats like Modern (meaning that they see some amount in a large amount of decks), but they have a relatively unique ability that make a very specific deck better. An example here is something like Death Cloud or Smallpox– they don’t fit into a very wide spectrum of decks, but there are no other comparable effects (at a viable rate, at least- sorry, Undercity Plague!), so they have a baseline value buoyed by being the best at that very narrow role they serve. It’s the difference, for those who can grok it, between a guy who only excelled in college Spread offenses (TEBOWTEBOWTEBOW) versus a guy who only comes in on third downs to just try and rush the QB. One serves a valuable, but very small and clearly defined, role, the other is on the SEC Network now.

So who are our current Standard system players?

Chandra, Flamecaller: I think this card has some life left in Standard, and I could see her price increasing over the summer, but rotation is going to crater the price. You know how sometimes when you are buying a card that you really need for a deck, but aren’t sure if that twenty bucks or whatever is going to really be worth it in the long run? Yeah, you better win the tournament.

Archangel Avacyn: This card is probably overrated in Standard right now, to say nothing of older formats where 3WW is a VERY big ask. She also benefits from Standard being the format where you can play a bunch of creatures that don’t also backdoor into a combo kill.

Tireless Tracker: This is both a better and more fair Knight of the Reliquary, except that Knight is big on the spot in late games AND can be gotten back by Reveillark (this matters to nobody except a small contingent of crazy people).

Dromoka’s Command: I will never give up on this card, but the rest of you will. For shame.

Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet: Another card that feels built to handle specifically this Standard format, and not the larger and more diverse threats of a wide environment like Modern. Again, that doesn’t mean that this card won’t help define Standard for a while, but be aware that the carriage WILL turn into a pumpkin again. Also, this:

Et tu, FN-2187?
Et tu, FN-2187?

That’s all for this week- Nahiri, the Harbinger is starting to spike as we speak, so hopefully you got into yours already. It’s a card that we’ve been discussing a lot here and on the forums, so make sure that you keep your ears to the ground on what’s coming next. Also, the hype behind Nahiri isn’t JUST coming from Standard- there is word that she may (in concert with Emrakul, the Aeons Torn) be the best thing to be doing in Modern. What cards and colors fit around that combination? Tell me your thoughts, and lets try and piece this beast together. Thanks as always for reading!

Best,

Ross

1In high school, I did a huge math project on Magic, including teaching myself Hypergeometric Distribution in order to evaluate win percentages and keepable opening hand math. Given that I was neither a good student nor a very good Magic player at the time, some of the results may skewed (one of the decks I submitted for testing included the awesome-in-my-mind combo of Natural Affinity + Eradicate, which was a seven mana mostly one-sided Armageddon). I do not have the project saved anywhere to my knowledge, although I do remember that having 8 of a significant effect (Birds of Paradise + Llanowar Elves) equated to a statistically safe amount of opening hands (over 80%).

Grinder Finance – Toronto & Milwaukee Analysis

Last weekend had Grand Prix Toronto won by Esper Dragons (notably the only copy to day 2 according to the day 2 breakdown here).  The SCG Standard Classic (which is notably much smaller than an Open) was taken down by a very odd Naya Midrange deck.  What does this do to the future of Standard prices?  Well there weren’t a lot of colors in the top decks.  That’s for sure.

nissa voice of zendikargideon ally of z

Nissa and Gideon combine for the one-two planeswalker punch that currently support the G/W tokens deck.  In Toronto, there were 10 G/W Tokens in the Top 32 and Gideon was played outside of that deck.  The top 32 had 40 copies of Nissa and 60 copies of Gideon.  That’s a lot for planeswalkers who prices have barely budged since the Pro Tour.  This pair of walkers are from the same block so I think it would be wise to invest in them as they won’t rotate until next April.   I think we will see them to continue to creep up by $0.30 per day until they pop.  Nobody is noticing their slow ascension but once people do it will cause a price correction.

sylvanadvocate

Next on our list of enemies is Tarmo…. I mean Sylvan Advocate.  This card was the highest played card on the weekend.  It showed up in staggering numbers at Toronto (69 copies in 32 decks) and almost as equally impressive numbers in Milwaukee (29 copies in 16 decks).  It has already had a dominant rise the weekend of the Pro Tour but it keeps showing up in numbers suggesting it might be one of the best cards in Standard.  It’s rare but possible for rares to hold values as high as $10-12 and this might be one of them.  Oath of the Gatewatch was a small set so there may not be a terribly large number of them in the wild.  If you are thinking of getting these to play with, you don’t have much to gain by waiting.  Advocate is showing up in multiple different types of deck lists and is a recipe for a fast rising rare.

Dromoka's CommanddeclarationinstoneOath of Nissa

These three cards show up across multiple archtypes.  Oath of Nissa is in G/W Tokens and G/R ramp decks.  Declaration in Stone is played in White Humans, Bant Company, and G/W Tokens.  Dromoka’s Command is having a last minute revival as the main form of removal for G/W Tokens and Bant Company.  I’m not terribly interested in buying into Declaration which seems to be finally dropping in price as supply increases and Dromoka’s Command that rotates in September.  Oath of Nissa feels like the type of card that will continue to be good card filtering into the next block and worth a pick up at $2.

archangel avacyn

Turns out there is an amount of extra text you can throw onto a Serra Angel to make it good.  Archangel Avacyn rounds out the best performing cards of the weekend putting 73 copies into 48 decklists this weekend.  There is apparently no stopping this train but the true value lies in the difficult of opening flip mythics.  Without MTGO redemption kicking in yet, we are unlikely to see a reprieve in Avacyn’s price.  It’s possible it might still not move that much given how much more the redemption supply will affect regular mythics instead of flip cards.  If you’re not a Standard player you can probably find a much better time to pick this up.  I’d estimate by the holidays of 2016 she will be a $10-15 card.
spirit_awakening_riley2

Modern

Thopter Foundryancestral vision

0 copies in the Top 8 of this open.  Some decks in the Top 32 played a few copies of Ancestral Vision but Thopter Foundry is no where to be found.  I think it’s almost safe to say that the Thopter Foundry unbanning is doing less than the Wild Nacatl unban.  If you’re holding copies of these hoping they will go up I think it’s time to sell.  I wouldn’t expect them to do anything but drop from here.

collected company card

This card is dominating Standard and Modern and has seen a big resurgence from it’s all time low during the release of the event deck including it.  If you’re a Modern player I would strongly recommending to wait for this to rotate before buying in.  I’m not sure it will continue to hold it’s current price tag.  It’s one of the few cards in the Abzan Company deck you play more than 1 of but that doesn’t mean it will maintain it’s $25 price tag.  If you want to play them in Standard and Modern I would rather buy foil copies.  There are a lot less of them out there and they’re unlikely to see as large of a collapse when Company rotates.

 

Final thoughts:

  • I’m going on a grinding binge.  I’ll be at GP NYC this weekend and hope to pick up some sweet deals at the vendors.
  • Green is really good in Standard.  We need to stop underestimating it.
  • White removal is still insane.

Making Sense of #PayThePros

Sometimes I tend to just ignore the recent MTG “drama” because, frankly, a lot of the time it’s just made-up concerns that the Internet wants to rage about because that’s what it does. So I brush it off and move on.

This is not one of those cases, and I can’t do that.

The (since retracted) cut to Platinum pros may not seem like something that affects most of us — and for the most part it’s not — but the community has stood together on this and come out with a very strong reaction. All of us at one point or another have dreamed of playing on the Pro Tour and (gasp) make a living playing Magic. That was something very few players in the world got to claim, but it was something that was possible thanks to the prizes Wizards gave those players.

200px-Jon_Finkel

That safety net — better defined as “expected income” — has been pulled out from under them, and in the worst possible way from a PR perspective. We just had what was by all accounts an awesome Pro Tour with eight different archetypes in a Top 8 for the ages, a great documentary by the Walking the Planes guys Nate and Shawn (seriously, check out “Enter the Battlefield” on Netflix), and we’re in what should be a golden time for Magic.

This hurts all of us. Even if you don’t care about the financial plight or the death of the Pro dream, chances are you do care about content. Kenji (Numot the Nummy) stopped streaming for a week in solidarity. The Vintage Super League was delayed due to players pulling out. Content will likely be affected, and there’s the realest possibility I’ve ever seen of a Pro Tour being boycotted.

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Since then, Wizards has walked back this change. Players are getting their benefits for the next year and the World Championship will keep the increased prize pool, while future changes may be made.

This is a good decision by WotC and I’m glad they recognized the need to make a change. They should be applauded for their decision to right the wrong and move forward. That said, we must also question why this decision was ever made in the first place, what led to this decision and what that might mean for the future.

I hate that a very good Pro Tour and the awesome success of Steve Rubin has been overshadowed by this decision. I can understand some of the reasons this change may have been made, but the fact that there are some valid reasons doesn’t change the reality that the narrative has become that Wizards “tried to kill the highest level of the game,” regardless of how accurate that statement is.

I’m glad that they took the minimum step of extending the benefits through next season so those players who have been pushing so hard to reach that level this year don’t have that bombshell dropped on them three-quarters of the way through the season.

So while I wanted to spend today writing about the Pro Tour results and the effects it would have our seemingly wide-open Standard metagame, instead I’m going to talk about how important the pro system is to Magic, the danger in losing it, and where we might go from here.

Everyone likes a Big Check

I’m not talking about the appearance fees here — I’m speaking about those big Happy Gilmore sized checks. Checks like this.

col_cheque

naviinternationalmillion

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Notice something about all those checks? They all come from big sporting tournaments, both of the eSports variety and the Happy v. Shooter kind. They’re big, in both value and size. They are heralded by fanfare. They’re exciting. They generate interest, headlines and, most importantly, revenue for the company.

All it takes is a quick Google search of “DotA championship” and you’re blasted with images of stadiums sold out and players sporting those big checks. Every year there is a new round of articles talking about just how big the prize pool is for this year’s International, the equivalent of the World Magic Championship.

We don’t know the full reasons behind the cut to the Platinum appearance fees. There’s been no shortage of theories, from basic cost-cutting to legal reasons to a desire to see new faces at the top. Every few hours over the past few days there’s been a new conspiracy, all of which seems aimed at the belief that Wizards “wants to kill the Pro scene to save a little money.”

I don’t believe this is true. In fact, I know it isn’t. They want a vibrant pro scene, and they want those big checks for themselves. That’s the reason why most of this “lost money” was funneled into the World Championship, which is meant to be Magic’s marquee event on the calendar.

f_WCPAX-20150830-3021

This in itself isn’t a bad thing. Magic benefits from a robust World Championship prize pool, and especially given the fact they’ve placed it at PAX means that there are going to be news stories written about it, headlines seen and coverage given from outside news outlets. They don’t want less money for pros, they want more — they just don’t want it to come from within.

Again, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Those big checks given out at the International? That’s what those DotA players made — they didn’t receive an appearance fee for being there. With a few exceptions — basically just the LCS in League of Legends where Riot provides a minimum salary for players that is supplemented by their teams — players in other eSports aren’t paid by their parent companies, they’re paid in sponsorships for their teams or have outside means of income of their own.

There is some of this in Magic. Article writing, for instance, is in many ways a sponsorship — the prestige of having a writer like Sam Black or Owen Turtenwald on your site is worth more than the actual income generated per clicks. While this is somewhat unique to Magic thanks to the secondary market — a positive side effect of that thing players like to blame for all of the game’s evils, by the way — it in many ways mirrors the sponsorships other eSports players receive in their games.

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The difference is entirely in scale — Star City and Channel Fireball aren’t paying what Red Bull or AlienWare are. Per-article payments from Magic sites aren’t alone enough to live the modest life of a Magic pro — that’s where WotC’s appearance fees came in, and why pulling it from Platinum Pros was so devastating to those relying on it. It’s possible that Wizards thinks that by funneling that money into the World Championship instead for that all-important big check picture, it will help grow Magic’s image as an eSport enough to attract those “real” sponsors and make up that gap in pro’s lives.

Of course there are plenty of problems with this line of thinking — which we’ll get to shortly. But it’s likely that this was the intent behind the changes: make players less reliant on Wizards, put the onus on sponsors, and increase the prize pool and visibility of the World Championship to help speed up that second point.

I have no idea if this was the reasoning or not. For all I know it was a simple matter of just cutting costs. I’m just trying to envision ways in which there was an intent other than “cause the faces of our game to revolt.”

Regardless of that intent, the rollout itself illuminates some problems with the current system.

The Problems

Let’s start with the obvious: you can’t pull benefits from players without any advance warning. That was obviously the biggest problem with the rollout, and the one that has since been addressed by keeping these benefits in place through the end of next season.

We can all agree that reinstating that subsidy for those promised it is a good thing. But the fact that such a subsidy was necessary in the first place is a problem. Twitch streams aren’t supporting Magic pros. Articles go a long way, but aren’t in themselves supporting Magic pros. Appearance fees alone aren’t enough to support Magic pros. Tournament winnings are not large or consistent enough to support Magic pros.

All of these things together combine to give these players an income they can live on, but let’s not pretend they’re living well. Taxes are difficult to plan for. Basic bills like rent must be planned for months in advance due to uneven income. Forget about putting much of anything back into a 401k.

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Things can be summed up simply: being a professional Magic player is a good job, but it isn’t a career. Compare this to professionals in other eSports, where they may not enjoy a career as long as the average Magic pro but they make orders of magnitudes more, meaning that there is plenty left over after the peak of their career to be invested or saved or see them through college.

None of this is necessarily Wizards’ fault. They have a tall order in front of them: sell the dream of making a living “as a pro” without having anywhere near the money of other eSports titles. The dream of being a Platinum Pro is incredibly important to keeping Organized Play going at the lower levels — as I said, we’ve all dreamed of winning the Pro Tour — but reconciling that with a game that simply doesn’t have the reach that other titles do is a difficult task.

Add to that the fact that Magic has more inherent variance, that an 0-3 start in a Pro Tour doesn’t mean a player isn’t still one of the best in the world, while an 0-3 start at Worlds for a League of Legends team means they have no ability to compete at the top. Appearance fees were actually a great way for Wizards to try and offset this problem of variance, but the problem is that money by necessity pulls away from the top of the prize pool, which we’ve established is an important tool for outside attention. No one cares that the 185th-place finisher received $3,000 for being there — they care what the number of that big check is. While I was watching Enter the Battlefield on Twitch, there were plenty of people in Twitch chat unfamiliar with Magic watching the documentary. The most common question wasn’t “how sustainable is the life of a Magic pro?” It was “How much does the winner get?”

Consider all of this and you can see why it’s not as simple as “pay the pros” or “give us more prize support.” Yes, Wizards of the Coast can increase the prize support (and they should), but that only addresses part of the problem. Prize pools alone don’t make for a healthy and growing eSport game — look at Versus from the late ‘90s in which big payouts were given but the game died anyway — and in 2016 player income provided primarily by the game’s parent company is an outdated model.

There is no easy solution to this, and there is no one answer to fix the problem. But here are a few steps that I believe will come about over the next few years to help push Magic into the future.

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Teams

Let’s talk League of Legends. I’ve followed it very closely over the past three or four years, though I admit I fell off a bit this split. That said, when the playoffs began I was ready to watch with a vested interest: I wanted TSM to win.

Why? I know Bjergsen and Doublelift (who I’m not even a huge fan of) but after they revamped the lineup this year I don’t have any particular pull to any of their players. But when they opened the first round you can bet I cared about their prospects regardless of roster because I enjoyed following them in the past.

That’s brand loyalty to a team that doesn’t exist in Magic. And it’s not Wizards that’s to blame here. Just like I’m a TSM fan or you’re a Cubs or Packers or Duke fan, the names on the back of the jersey matter less than the names on the front.

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We don’t have that yet in Magic. ChannelFireball has come the closest of any pro “team” to achieving this goal, and I think that Team EUreka and Team Ultra Pro have been doing a good job recently. But even as someone who follows the ins and outs of Magic teams closely, it can be hard to keep track of rosters. Further confusing the issue is that different members of the same team actually have different “sponsors” when it comes to the shirt they want to wear in front of the camera. Players write for one website, play on the team of another and are sponsored by a third. It’s insanity on the part of sponsors and impossible to keep up with.

This is all a problem. If Magic’s own companies don’t want to invest in teams, how can we possibly expect Red Bull or Monster to do the same? Until we see more “internal” investment in teams and branding to the point that fans want to buy jerseys (or polos or what have you) like they do for Cloud 9, it’s going to be hard to expect much more than we have now.

Another benefit of effectively branding teams is that when Casual Joe from your FNM does happen to find the Pro Tour on Twitch, they’ll be going into it with a team in mind and some faces to root for whether they’ve ever seen them in the past or not.

Teams are a wonderful thing, and the concept has not been pushed nearly enough in Magic. I hope to see that change in the years to come.

Outside Sponsorships

I know I’ve talked about how Magic doesn’t draw the eyeballs that it needs to lure in big sponsors, but let’s not pretend that Wizards — a subsidiary of Hasbro, as we’ve been reminded — is a little upstart company with no strings to pull. Sure, maybe Coke or RedBull isn’t interested in sponsoring just the Pro Tour — but I bet they’d be willing to listen to an agreement that includes integration with other Hasbro products. When we see Optimus Prime plastered all over 12-packs of soda, why isn’t Hasbro including another of their “core brands” in Magic as part of those negotiations?

Sure, it may not be super desirable for Mountain Dew to put Jace on its packages, but they’re also unlikely to make it a huge sticking point when it comes stapled to other Hasbro properties. Hasbro has an opportunity to use its existing brands to increase exposure to another in Magic, and to date we’ve never seen much of an indication of that.

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I’m aware this is a mammoth goal, but there’s no reason it can’t start on a much lower scale. Magic doesn’t have the raw numbers to pull in the sponsors it would like — but in this case being owned by an industry giant like Hasbro should be a positive. After all, Heroes of the Storm isn’t so popular as to be on ESPN over something like DotA or League of Legends, but the fact Blizzard merged with Activision years back means they have the power to make deals like that happen. I’d like to see Hasbro step up in a similar, if smaller, manner.

Magic Online

Obviously this is a touchy topic, and one I don’t to spend forever on. I’m of the opinion that Magic Online is much better than it’s generally given credit for — I very rarely encounter bugs — but the fact that it both is difficult to learn, use and watch is a big problem for interest in Magic as an eSport. Magic is a much more complex game than Hearthstone — that’s why it’s better and always will be — but due to the cost and ease of viewing online it holds a huge advantage in the Twitch realm.

I’m not going to claim to have the solutions to this, but I’m cautiously optimistic about the rumored Magic Next” platform we’ve seen mentioned in company filings. Provide a product that better sells to the masses in both accessibility and viewability, and you open up a huge realm of income for the game’s top players and most entertaining personalities.

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Integrate with the culture

On this note, I have to give Wizards credit for doing a lot of good things in this area. Tying Worlds to PAX is a genius move that elevates the event and its status in the world of eSports. The Spellslingers series is great. LoadingReadyRun is awesome. As much some people may not like it, having Wil Wheaton narrate Enter the Battlefield is great.

For all the flak that Wizards receives, the marketing team actually has been doing a great job in the past few years, and the Escape Rooms for Shadows Over Innistrad are just the latest step in this.

The problem is that these things are overshadowed by the blunders made in other parts of the company. Too many times it feels like the PR department either doesn’t exist or isn’t consulted, and these missteps overshadow good work done by the company and just serve to give the Internet something to rail against the game’s parent company, which happens to be a favorite pastime of the Internet.

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Conclusion

Pro Magic is not dead. Wizards didn’t do this to kill professional Magic, and they didn’t do it because they don’t care about their players. They made this reallocation of funds in an attempt to grow the game in the big picture, but as is too often the case with Wizards they gave the impression they forgot those standing in that picture.

The pros got paid, and I’m glad they did. But this is not when we sit back in chairs and chant “we did it, Reddit.” There are still very real problems with Magic as an eSport to solve, and that’s a conversation we need to have.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter/Twitch/YouTube

PROTRADER: PT Shadows Prep

Hey, happy Pro Tour Weekend! There is a lot to be really excited about going into this event- a new Standard format, a promising draft environment, and, because it’s in Spain, players will get an hour nap break in between formats!

siesta

In reality, this weekend is actually a bigger deal than you might even think. This is our first Standard Pro Tour in the new Standard system that touches on 3 separate blocks (although the Fall 2016 set1 will be the first one to cleanly incorporate the new structure, as DTK and Khans will be gone).Even though we have already had two Standard weekends courtesy of SCG, this format feels largely undefined. Standard right now is a lot like the American presidential election- people are over-valuing the recent performance of aggressive white humans.

There is lots of price information to suggest that there are other decks likely to see play at the event, but it’s important to explain WHY white is unlikely to perform as it has in the past. First, the Pro Tour and any Star City event (including the Invitational) have a starkly diverse player base- the range in individual player quality is higher at a Pro Tour, but that’s largely because the Invitational is comprised mostly of players in the middle of the quality spectrum. The Pro Tour attendees, particularly after being weighted by Day Two participation, tend to skew towards much stronger, more experienced players. Strong players, especially ones with long resumes, are often more likely to slot into the control role, because that is the best way to leverage play skill against weaker opponents. At a Pro Tour, you are more likely to see control decks, even if they are a smaller percentage of the format as a whole, because this event is not comprised of Magic players as a wholly random sample.

For this reason, it’s difficult to discern what is actionable information for the future of the standard format, and what is just good for this weekend. On a granular level, some things that don’t really impact Magic finance are likely to fit into this category- I’d be much more comfortable having maindeck Duress at a Pro Tour than at an Open or an FNM, although Duress is unlikely to have a serious price change if it turns out to be a highly played card this weekend.

Let’s talk about some cards that ARE getting hyped going into this weekend:

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