What to Preorder and What to Avoid from Duskmourn

September 14, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

With Duskmourn: House of Horror fully revealed, there’s a lot to talk about. We’ve got new Commanders, new mechanics, and a whole lot of interest. We’ve got just about two months until Foundations is out, and while I’ll be curious to see who switches over on packs, I think Duskmourn will end up like Bloomburrow, getting an abbreviated time on its own in the spotlight.

So with that in mind, I want to look at some of the cards that I think have real potential to go up from their preorder prices, and which I want to stay the hell away from.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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The Mana Math of Duskmourn: House of Horror

September 6, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

We have all the cards from Duskmourn: House of Horror, and it’s time we look at the numbers and the chances. Every set, we’re given some percentages, but Wizards doesn’t want to make it super clear how hard it is to open the most chase versions of cards.

Lucky for you, I’ve gotten good at decoding what they are saying and turning it into useful information.

So let’s get into the statistics, and a couple of ways to buy cards that might be worth your time.

The Nightmare Bundle is one of the best add-ons we’ve seen in a while, and that’s all because of the cards that are added in. When you buy one of these for around $80 (currently, we’ll see if that price goes down), you get all of this, plus a deck box:

6 Duskmourn: House of Horror Play Boosters
2 Duskmourn: House of Horror Collector Boosters
20 Traditional foil full-art lands
- 4 Full-art manor lands of each basic land type
1 of 3 Borderless promo cards
1 of 3 Movie poster–themed cards
3 Double-sided movie posters
1 Glow-in-the-dark spindown die

I’m going to get into the Collector Boosters in a moment, but the real appeal is in the two ‘1 of 3’ cards. You’ll get one of the promos (Exhume, Damn, Crypt Ghast) and one of the movie poster-style cards (Goryo’s Vengeance, Living Death, Archon of Cruelty) always in foil. Those are all solid choices with good use rates, and while I’m not going to run out and buy bundles/cards immediately, I’m almost certainly going to snag a couple of personal copies early and spec buying six months from now.

In the Collector Boosters, there’s three slots with cards we’ll care about, the last three. Two of them are reserved for the Booster Fun nonfoils, and here’s your statistics for pulling one of these from either slot.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)	Percent chance for any card of that category in one slot	Percent chance for a specific card of that category in one slot	# of packs to open one specific card from that category in one slot
Borderless Mythic Rare (6)	4.00%	0.67%	150.00
Borderless Rare (10)	14.40%	1.44%	69.44
Extended-Art Rare (13)	18.80%	1.45%	69.15
Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)	3.60%	0.72%	138.89
Paranormal Rare (20)	29.00%	1.45%	68.97
Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)	1.50%	0.75%	133.33
Double Exposure Rare (12)	17.40%	1.45%	68.97
Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)	3.30%	0.66%	151.52
Mirror Monsters Rare (4)	5.80%	1.45%	68.97
Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)	2.20%	0.73%	136.36

And remember, you have two of these slots, so you’ll have double the chances to open the card you want (or half the packs, depending on which set of data you like to work with) and this is the formulation they used in Bloomburrow.

Then in the last slot, you can open anything that’s in the previous slots, just at a 85.9% rate. The other 14.1%, you get a chance at the truly rare drops, the Japan Showcase versions, the Double Exposure and the Special Guests. Don’t worry, I’ve got that table for you too.

Card Frame/Treatment (# of options)	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Traditional Foil Borderless Mythic Rare (6)	3.44%	0.57%	174.62
Traditional Foil Borderless Rare (10)	12.37%	1.24%	80.84
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Rare (13)	16.15%	1.24%	80.50
Traditional Foil Extended-Art Mythic Rare (5)	3.09%	0.62%	161.69
Traditional Foil Paranormal Rare (20)	24.91%	1.25%	80.29
Traditional Foil Paranormal Mythic Rare (2)	1.29%	0.64%	155.22
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Rare (12)	14.95%	1.25%	80.29
Traditional Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)	2.83%	0.57%	176.39
Traditional Foil Mirror Monsters Rare (4)	4.98%	1.25%	80.29
Traditional Foil Mirror Monster Mythic Rare (3)	1.89%	0.63%	158.75
Traditional Foil Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)	6.00%	0.60%	166.67
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese(10)	3.00%	0.30%	333.33
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)	0.70%	0.07%	1428.57
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese (10)	0.30%	0.03%	3333.33
Textured Foil Double Exposure Mythic Rare (5)	1.00%	0.20%	500.00
Traditional Foil Special Guest (10)	3.10%	0.31%	322.58

Before you start freaking out about a non-serialized card being found in 1 out of every 3,333 packs (a drop rate close to that of the serialized Human Sol Ring from LOTR) we need to keep in mind that the Japanese-language versions of cards show up in roughly a third of English (and other language) Collector Boosters, but that’s the only language for the Japanese-language Collector Boosters.

To put it another way, instead of a 0.3% chance of a Japanese-language Fracture Foil, you have a 1% chance instead if you’re opening a Japanese-language Collector Booster. And with there being ten options, you’ve got a 1/1000 chance, no longer a 1/3333 chance.

So if these Japanese-language cards blow up to ridiculous values, you’re looking at the Japanese-language Collector Booster boxes being even better investments.

It’s worth noting that the rest of the distribution here is in line with expectations from OTJ and BLB. The rarest pulls from the OTP subset, the Textured Foils, were 1 in 1500 packs. The Raised Foil Anime cards from BLB were just under 1 in 600, but those cards are cute furry animals and Magic players tend to spend pretty hard on those, whereas the OTP, even if in a lot of decks, those can be had relatively cheaply.

I’m also cognizant that we are entering a long period where Duskmourn might be the only set people care about. Bloomburrow was only given about two months where it’s being opened and getting all the attention. The next big set will be Foundations in November, but that will have a lot of reprints. We don’t have a date for Innistrad Remastered aside from it being in January, so we might get a glut of Duskmourn. It’s not for sure, though, and it might turn out that we love opening Foundations packs, so we’ll have to wait and see.

If you want to discuss my numbers, please feel free to reach out in the comments, on Twitter, or in the ProTrader Discord!

Casual Fridays

Checking Back on Murders at Karlov Manor

August 30, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

We’re six months past the release of Murders at Karlov Manor, and that’s the timeframe at which we can be pretty confident that supply has hit maximum and attention is pretty low

This is the time that I want to get into speculating on cards from this set (and its Commander subset, plus the Cluedo cards) and so let’s go over the things that have the best chance of paying us off in the future.

When I’m looking at a whole set, I want to start with cross-format staples, then Commander cards, then Constructed cards, and basically nothing after that. For MKM, there’s a clear place to start.

Surveil Lands (Borderless foil $17-$40, regular frame $9-$17) – These lands are all over the place since rotation, and have jumped in price basically since release. If you got in early, you’re looking at double-ups, at least to start with.

Notably, though, we’re looking at the next set of Triomes. It didn’t take long for Modern players to add a one-of Triome to decks, as an additional target for fetchlands, but giving the fetchable lands a surveil trigger, that’s exceedingly powerful.

As a result, I don’t think we’re done with this growth, but I’m expecting a trickle rather than a roar from here out. These lands have two years left in Standard, and they are worthy additions to every Commander and Modern deck that can run them. I don’t think these will grow enough to be good specs, but I would definitely get your personal copies now, rather than wait till they are $5 more. (No, I don’t think a card that goes from $10 to $15 in a year is a good spec. Allow me to link you a classic by Travis Allen that explains this concept, still very relevant a decade later)

Archdruid’s Charm (Foil EA $10) – Interestingly, the most popular card from MKM on EDHREC is Demand Answers, but I don’t want to spec on commons that way, though it’s a very good version of this effect. The Charm is the #3 card from the set, after the UB Surveil land, and makes for a great spec target. It’s been registered in 48,000 decks online, and big green decks will always be a thing in Commander. These are three very good abilities, and while there’s still a lot of vendors left, the card cannot be overlooked.

Wizards has started a cycle here, too. We’ve got Archmage’s Charm, and now Archdruid’s Charm, so presumably we’ll get the other three colors eventually. When the cycle is complete, I fully expect a Secret Lair drop for the set, but for now, I think this is a fantastic spec to hit $20-$25 in the next 12 months.

Warleader’s Call (Foil Showcase $8.50) – Being in 36k decks already is impressive, and what it does is two things that boros decks tend to want. First, you want a way to buff everything that you have, and boom, here’s a three-mana Anthem effect. Combine that with a way to kill your opponent when you spew tokens onto the board, and you’re off to the races. We know this is a good ability to have, in the permanent type that is the most difficult to remove.

I think this has great potential both as a Standard card, as Bloomburrow gave some really amazing aggro effects, and in Commander. The Standard decks currently using it are rarely at a four-of, but I’m content with 2-3 copies showing up frequently.

Case of the Locked Hothouse (pack foil $6.50) – I like that it’s in 29k decks, and it’s what every green player wants to do. This effect exists in a lot of creatures, but the enchantment being harder to remove makes it so much better. Seven lands is pretty easy to do in the majority of green decks, and then you’re off to valuetown.

The other appealing thing here is that Sagas are just reprinted less than other cards. It requires a different size of art and so we don’t get as many Secret Lair or other variations. Dodging the reprint risk (at least until Return to Return to Ravnica) makes me feel better about this.

Forensic Gadgeteer (Foil Dossier $3) – The combo potential is very high here, and it can combo in two different ways, both with the Clue synergies and with the reduction in costs. We’ve got another version of this card in Sai, Master Thopterist, and the most premium version of that is over $6. I like where this could go, but the hard part is that the investment may be locked up for quite a while.

Pick your Poison (Foils $2) – There’s no reason for these foils to be this cheap when it’s played in as many sideboards as this is. It’s a very popular answer to The One Ring, and it was also a fun way to answer Vein Ripper in Pioneer. The recent bannings make that use-case less appealing, but it’s still a useful and flexible card. If you want to wait and see if it’s still popular in sideboards post-banning, I won’t argue.

Slime Against Humanity (Foils $3) – Purely, this is a play based on what has gone before. When a card rewards the playing of many in a row like this, the price gets high. Depending on the deck, the reprint can torpedo the value, but the great news here is that this card synergizes really well with two very popular themes: tokens and +1/+1 counters. This is a great card in a long list of strategies, and while there’s a lot of foils out there right now, they get bought in big clumps. Get a clump for yourself.

Crime Novelist (Foils $1) – Finally, let’s talk about a card that got a LOT of attention early on and now has dropped in the attention rankings. The ‘token artifacts’ method of cards has exploded in the last couple years, and the Novelist loves every bit of this. Adding additional mana after a Food, Clue, or Treasure sacrifice is something a lot of decks can’t pass up, and this will synergize with lots of cards that have yet to see print. Purely speculative, yes, but it’s already the #6 nonland card from the set.

Casual Fridays

Evaluating the D&D 50th Anniversary Secret Lair Drop

August 23, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

It might seem odd, but there’s yet another Secret Lair going on sale next Tuesday, August 27.

We have ended the Brain Dead and the Festival in a Box has another 60 days to go, but yes, it’s time for the 50th Anniversary of Dungeons and Dragons! We’ve got five drops that are coming out and we need to look at if these are worth buying.

For each drop, I’m going to list the cards, their EDH inclusion rate, and the current most special version of the card and its price.

For mega-staples, the number of premium versions isn’t a huge deal, but for most of these cards, there is no other special version aside from the pack foil.

Fell the Mighty (50k, Surge foil 50¢)

Faithless Looting (364k, Mystical Archive foil $14)

Goldspan Dragon (130k, FEA $40)

Reality Shift (200k, Borderless foil $1)

Monster Manual (51k, Prerelease foil $8)

Ponder (285k, SL Showdown foil $120)

Acererak the Archlich (17k, 900 as Commander, $48 Ampersand foil)

The big draw here is the Goldspan Dragon, who sees play in any number of Treasure decks. This is the drop that appears to be the best value on its own, between the Dragon and several cards lacking special versions but have good inclusion numbers. None of these are bad cards, and even if you’re not currently running them, they are worth considering.

Reality Shift needs special attention, because it feels like this version should be more than $1 but there is an absolute boatload of the borderless foil uncommon out there. I think this version will end up as the most expensive, but it’ll be hard for this to be too much more pricey than the borderless version.

Astarion, the Decadent (20k, incl. 3k as Commander, Prerelease foil $17)

Exquisite Blood (109k, SL Dracula foil $34)

Sanguine Bond (129k, TSR Retro foil $17)

Anguished Unmaking (244k, Textured foil $27)

Mortify (122k, Player Rewards $4)

This is solid value, considering that there’s a whole lot of Mortify and Unmaking out there. Having the two enchantments that combo off together (plus you gaining life/opponent losing life) with matching art is good, and this drop should also hold value well, even if you don’t like the character as a being or as a card. So many decks play the pair of five-drop enchantments, and so I think this will be a solid drop.

Karlach, Fury of Avernus (65k, prerelease foil $37)

City on Fire (72k, FEA $7)

Stranglehold (12k, Judge foil $8)

Thrill of Possibility (228k, Mystical Archive 50¢)

Dolmen Gate (38k, Lorwyn pack foil $120)

City on Fire feels like it should have gotten there, but Karlach being in so many decks is a testament to the awesome ability to gain a second combat, with first strike added, for no cost beyond her own. It’s very hard to argue with the ability, though it’s difficult to copy/clone.

If you’re buying this drop, it’s either in the bundle or you believe in this Karlach long-term. The other cards just aren’t played enough to be worthwhile. (Dolmen Gate’s price is an effect of too little supply. This version will be lucky to be $10.)

Karazikar, the Eye Tyrant (25k, 1k as Commander, $12 EA nonfoil)

Oubliette (22k, Arabian Nights nonfoil $31)

Fling (44k, Blood Bowl SL $4)

Fire Covenant (36k, SL foil $31)

Snuff Out (51k, Mercadian Masques foil $180)

Defile (77k, MH1 Timeshifted Foil $5)

Snuff Out is in a lot more decks than you’d think, but it hasn’t been made really popular online. This is a very mid-tier drop, and I will be happy to go after singles here. There are several $7 versions of Snuff Out, and the price should be attractively low here when the drops start arriving.

Xanathar, Guild Kingpin (15k, 1500 as Commander, $24 Ampersand foil)

Bribery (24k, $180 Mercadian Masques foil)

Stifle (14k, $60 Invocation foil)

Delay (65k, $14 Future Sight foil)

Blood Money (41k, $5 Prerelease foil)

Drown in the Loch (71k, $23 Special Guests foil)

Xanathar is a popular choice for the decks that want to do things with other peoples’ decks. Tasha, the Witch Queen and Gonti, Canny Acquisitor are excellent examples of these decks, and Xanathar fits right into such strategies. The sneaky card to watch out for here is Drown in the Loch, as it’s still a played card in Modern and occasionally in Pioneer. Blood Money isn’t a bad choice if you want a black Wrath, and Bribery will always have a home.

I think this drop will hold value nicely, as it’s hard for me to see special versions of these cards not holding a total of $40 in value, and I plan on getting some extra copies of Drown in the Loch, hopefully as low as $5-$10 when supply reaches its maximum.

We don’t yet know the bonus cards, or the level of bundle discount, or if there will be any bonuses for higher spending. The ‘spend X, get X’ promotions haven’t been needed to help some Lairs sell out fast, so we might not get these anymore.

I am doubtful that this set of drops has a fast sellout, but the overlap between Magic and D&D cannot be discounted. My guess is that it never sells out completely, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the D&D art one sells out first, just due to the staples present within. If the bundles turn out to be the right level of discount, none of these are truly bad, but more than one will take a long while to be profitable.

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