Today, Foundations goes from pre-sale to full sale, and there’s two aspects of that I have to pay attention to: first, we want to try and pick the risers early, and second, we get a race to the bottom with the rest of the cards. 

Specifically today I want to talk about Jumpstart cards. It’s proven that many of the Jumpstart cards can get pricey when they become popular, like Neyith of the Wild Hunt, who’s nearly tripled in price since she’s amazing with the new Wolverine. 

So let’s talk about that set, what it’s meant for, and how we can profit.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Foundations prerelease is this weekend, and in case you’re forgetting, this is the set that will be legal in Standard until early 2030. The cards you open will be useful for just over four years, and most interestingly, we’re getting Collector Booster and Play Boosters for this set. We’ve never gotten reprints of Collector Boosters, and so today, I want to dive into some specifics about this set, the cards in it, and what the different distribution methods mean for the cards themselves.

Last week, I went over the math of the set, and some of that will get repeated here. It’s necessary to know what the drop rates for the different frames are, but today we’re focusing on the things that repeat in the two different boosters. The supply range for those is quite different, and if we get a glut early, followed by a very tiny trickle of supply, that’s a formula for big potential growth. 

One thing I want to mention about the set: There are five reprint cards that have a Borderless, but no EA. With these as reprints, they are unlikely to be huge movers, but be aware. Giada, Font of Hope, Phyrexian Arena, Etali, Primal Storm, Ghalta, Primal Hunger, Genesis Wave, and Lathril, Blade of the Elves.

Now, this table has the odds for what’s in a Play Booster. There is space for a rare/mythic, and then a wildcard which could be foil. Additionally, I’ve calculated the cost to buy the packs needed for a copy, averaging at $4 each. If you can get them cheaper, great, but $4 is a good average.

Those Play Booster odds hurt the eye to see. To put in context, needing to open 5600 Play Boosters is worse odds to get a specific Borderless Foil Mythic Rare than you had opening Lord of the Rings Collector Boosters to get a xxx/700 Dwarven Sol Ring, which took an estimated 4762 packs to open.

Let’s do the same table for Collector Boosters, using only the Borderless Foils and the regular frame foils. 

Traditional Foil (unless noted otherwise)	# of cards in that group	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of packs to open one specific card from that category	Times $24/pack to get cost/copy
Borderless Rare	43	34.50%	0.80%	124.64	$2,991.30
Borderless Mythic Rare	17	6.80%	0.40%	250.00	$6,000.00
Regular Frame Foil Rare	60	85.70%	1.43%	70.01	$1,680.28
Regular Frame Foil Mythic Rare	20	14.30%	0.72%	139.86	$3,356.64

Much more tolerable drop rates, and you’ll notice how much cheaper it is to open these cards in a Collector Booster than it is for a Play Booster. In fact, let’s compare those directly, for foils and nonfoils. 

Card/Frame/Treatment	Cost in Play Boosters	Cost in Collector Boosters	Difference in price	Efficiency
Borderless Rare	$1,849.46	$1,116.88	$732.58	39.61%
Borderless Mythic Rare	$3,777.78	$2,217.39	$1,560.39	41.30%
Foil Rare	$1,472.39	$840.14	$632.25	42.94%
Foil Mythic Rare	$3,076.92	$1,678.32	$1,398.60	45.45%
Borderless Foil Rare	$10,750.00	$2,991.30	$7,758.70	72.17%
Borderless Foil Mythic Rare	$22,666.67	$6,000.00	$16,666.67	73.53%

So here we are. Efficiency is 1 minus the ratio, as a way of comparing the difference in prices without having to measure the absolute sizes of the differences. The higher the percentage, the bigger the difference in price and therefore how much easier it is to get those cards from the Collector Boosters instead of the Play Boosters. 

Extended Art cards aren’t in the Play Boosters at all, so there’s a strong chance if the Borderless versions get cleaned out for a card, the EA versions will follow suit. Additionally, the EA versions won’t ever be replenished via Play Boosters, whereas we’ll be opening a few extras of Borderless here and there. Not often, mind you, but if Foundations is a good draft experience AND the cards are decently priced AND they are useful for Standard, we’ll see the Play Booster boxes get opened for a while. Wizards will print move of these as needed, which is a good plan for cards that have a four-year lifespan in Standard. 

We also need to be mindful of the timeframe. Foundations is going to lose attention to Innistrad Remastered, which is scheduled to be released January 24. Given that there’s several major holidays between now and then, the amount of packs opened should be impacted. I think that some of the more popular cards won’t be able to get very low before they begin to grow in price, and specifically, the Fracture Foils ought to really take off early.

It’s roughly 1,500 packs to open a Fracture Foil in Foundations, and it was only about 900 packs to get a Confetti foil in Wilds of Eldraine. These are mega-rare, and have the anime appeal to go with the sweet foiling. As an example, you could get a Confetti Foil Rhystic Study early on for $250 or so, and now they are three times that. I don’t think all the Fracture Foils have that growth potential, but Doubling Season gets my vote for having the cute anime kittens on it, and I’ve learned not to bet against cute on shiny Magic cards. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Foundations is coming out in two weeks, there’s barely any preorders to be had, and while there’s a lot to discuss with the timeframe of the set and how long it’ll be in print for, we also know that some of these cards are going to be casual all-stars. 

It’s important that we remember that this set will be Standard-legal until the end of 2029. That’s five full years! An enormous amount of time for the ten scrylands to be legal in the format, on top of all the other things to be had here. 

Another important caveat is that we should expect this set to get reprints at some time in that five-year period. We haven’t yet had a full reprinting of Collector Boosters, just Draft/Play boosters, and there’s no reason to think that Wizards will change that policy…but they are changing a LOT of things and nothing is 100% in this crazy world.

Except, perhaps, that if you want to know how rare the rarest drops are in Foundations, I’ve got you covered. Dust off your calculators, here we go.

I want to start off with the nonfoils of the EA and the borderless cards. We’re given two slots with these, and so the odds have to be cut in half. There is indeed a chance you get a pack with a pair of the same FEA mythic, albeit in nonfoil. 

Wow gonna be a lot of nonfoils out there, plus what peeps open in Play Boosters! Given the casual appeal of a lot of the Foundations cards, this may turn out to be a profitable spot once we reach max supply.

But what about the foil slot?

Traditional Foil (unless noted otherwise)	# of cards in that group	Percent chance for any card of that category	Percent chance for a specific card of that category	# of packs to open one specific card from that category
Borderless Rare	43	34.50%	2.03%	49.28
Borderless Mythic Rare	17	6.80%	0.16%	632.35
Extended-Art Rare	37	29.60%	0.80%	125.00
Extended-Art Mythic Rare	9	3.60%	0.40%	250.00
Mana Foil Rare	43	8.40%	0.20%	511.90
Mana Foil Mythic Rare	17	1.60%	0.09%	1062.50
Foil Special Guest	10	5.50%	0.55%	181.82
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in English (10)	10	6.00%	0.60%	166.67
Traditional Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese	10	3.00%	0.30%	333.33
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in English	10	0.66%	0.07%	1515.15
Fracture Foil Japan Showcase in Japanese	10	0.33%	0.03%	3030.30

Holy #$%#$ that is some rare loot to drop! One in 3000 packs is up there, equivalent to pulling a serialized card out of Assassin’s Creed packs. 

However, that 1 in 3030 has a big caveat: It’s 1 in 1000 in the Japanese-language packs. We got this same breakdown in Duskmourn, and there’s not a huge price gap, just a few percent between the English and the Japanese versions. For the English, though, that 1515 is still a huge number, roughly the same as getting a textured foil out of the OTP subset of Outlaws of Thunder Junction. Some of those textured foils are impressively cheap at the moment, and I know I’ve picked some in the past as great spec targets.

The Mana Foils ought to hold a nice premium here too, considering that it takes a thousand packs to open a specific one. That’s up there with the rarest pulls from All Will Be One, the concept Praetors. The Mana foils are a good treatment to have, up there with the Fractured foils, and I’m looking forward to seeing this pattern used more. 

Finally, I want to call out the Special Guests here. Dropping at a rate of 1/180 packs, that’s almost twice as common as they were in the last couple of sets, so if you want any of the newest ten, you’d do well to hold off a bit and let the supply build up. Their prices should fall faster than the SPG of Duskmourn or Bloomburrow.

I hope this information helps your buying, and as always, please look me up on Twitter or on the ProTrader Discord if you’ve got questions or want to call out my errors. Happy Pack-Cracking!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

This isn’t the big obvious yes you might be thinking it is. 

It’s extremely likely to do well, as a mega mega crossover with the most recognizable characters on the planet, and the card selection is juiced to boot!

However, aside from the IP and the limited-run nature of the drop, we need to look at the cards and figure some things out. 

So let’s look at the five drops, the characters, the cards, and the reprints, and make some decisions.

For each of the cards in a drop, I’m listing the EDHREC inclusion rate, as well as two prices: the cheapest version (usually a basic frame nonfoil) and the most expensive (could be serialized, mega-rare, or from the Alpha release!) so that we have a basis for where the card prices should land. 

The five characters themselves normally would not be super expensive. We’ve got data to back that up: None of the unique legends from Street Fighter or Stranger Things are particularly expensive, and aside from Rick, Steadfast Leader, the same is true for The Walking Dead. The Doctor Who: Regeneration drop has a set of expensive legends, which is probably due to a low quantity sold at the time. 

However, Marvel IP is in a galaxy of its own, eclipsed only by Disney in terms of the characters and their marketing. Plus, everyone who wanted a Dr. Who could get one, and this set of Secret Lairs is likely to sell out ridiculously fast. So while other special legends haven’t been super expensive, this is likely to be a big outlier.

All indications are that even if the cards were terrible, this would still sell amazingly well, but the card selection is definitely chosen to help move this product. Let’s get to the drops, in order of probable value in a year. As a bonus, I’ll give a longshot spec for each commander. We’ve talked about many of these on MTG Fast Finance, as well as the Discord, so we’ll see if it gets there.

Wolverine, Best There Is

Berserk (14,000 decks, $20 for the cheapest and $500+ for the most expensive)

Rite of Passage (7300 decks, $5 to $20)

Rhythm of the Wild (239k decks, $3 to $10)

The Ozolith (160k decks, $33 to $450) 

I am a Gruul enthusiast and quite frankly, this drop is everything you might want. Wolvie himself does it all, and I can’t wait to build this deck. You want to attack, to deal damage, and kick a lot of butt. I am truly impressed at the card selection here: Rite of Passage works great with the fight spells you’ll add to the deck, Berserk is nullified by his regeneration, Ozolith is great in case of exile spells, and then Rhythm of the Wild, one of the best feelings in Magic is landing this early.

Even the cheap versions of these add up to $58, and this will be at least a $15 version of Rhythm of the Wild in a year. It’s stuffed with value, fantastic art, iconic character. Winner all around and if you don’t have the spare funds to buy everything, just get a couple of this drop.

Bonus Spec: Mage Slayer ($1 to $7) – There’s only one frame/art, and the pack foil is the only way to get a shiny. I think some people have already bought cheaper foils, but this does exactly what you’d want in a Wolverine deck–gut the other players quickly and effectively.

Captain America, First Avenger

Sigarda’s Aid (74k decks, $7 to $11)

Flawless Maneuver (206k decks, $9 to $16)

In the Trenches (7500 decks, 50¢ to $1.50)

Sword of War and Peace (28k decks, $8 to $80)

Three awesome cards and a random In The Trenches still make for a great drop. Why there’s an anthem to go with a Voltron Equipment-focused Commander I’ll never know. Aid is exactly what this deck wants, Flawless is exactly that, and the Sword (as a Shield!) is a great addition. The flavor is top-notch, and we’ve already seen a few cards pop off in anticipation of Cap’s arrival.

I think the straightforward nature of the Commander plus the right accessory cards make for a very good drop that will sell out quick, and should profit.

Bonus Spec: The Reality Chip ($2 to $8) – Blue equipment needs to be pretty great, and while there’s a lot of enablers in RW for the archetype, this equipment gives lots of card advantage if it sticks around. Plus, it’s gotten zero reprints, so when the deck starts getting built, this should be trending upwards.

Storm, Force of Nature

Lightning Bolt (242k decks, $1 to $600)

Jeska’s Will (398k decks, $20 to $90)

Ice Storm (374 decks!, $8 to $300)

Manamorphose (22k decks, $4 to $30)

Storm is terrifying, a must-kill threat who can wreck a table in a bunch of different ways. Giving one spell storm is thematic, and the four spells that come in her Drop are all excellent things you’d love to cast more than once in a turn. Jeska’s Will is super expensive in its FEA version and this should end up being a very pricey version of that card. 

Remember that the sequence has to go something like: spells in first main-combat-deal damage-next spell has storm. So it’s not just that she hits and the game ends, but when they cast some foolishness ad get in, then cast Time Warp for three extra turns, well, it’ll feel like the game is over.

Bonus Spec: Storm-Kiln Artist ($1 to $3) – There’s a lot of ways to build this deck, but when you want to storm off, the Artist is there to give discounts and make your turns that much more powerful.

Black Panther, Wakandan King

Secure the Wastes (54k decks, $1 to $10)

Primal Vigor (61k decks, $7 to $14)

Heroic Intervention (648k decks!!, $10 to $25)

Karn’s Bastion (237k decks, $1 to $4)

I genuinely didn’t know that the Bastion was in so many decks! This is a great variation on the +1/+1 theme, where the lands build up counters and then when you’re ready, move them over and break some face. Primal Vigor applies to everyone, don’t forget, and Heroic Intervention is the staple of staples. Everything that’s good with the counter themes will be good here. 

Bonus Spec: Kutzil, Malamet Exemplar (bulk to $1) – There’s no shortage of things that help a Selesnya deck win with counters and doubling and whatnot, but this Cat can get you that warm, safe feeling of being able to do what you want on your turn AND get you an extra card in combat. I don’t know if people will adopt this tech, but they should.

Iron Man, Titan of Innovation

Galvanic Blast (12k decks, $1 to $8)

Commander’s Plate (113k decks, $33 to $60)

Sol Ring (3,982,665 decks and counting, $1 to $1400)

Inventors’ Fair (183k decks, $15 to $60)

The Plate was in the Angels deck, which is why the special version is so pricey, and this one should be impressively priced too. This Sol Ring should be at least $10 too, and this is the first special printing of Inventors’ Fair. All told, there’s a lot to like here and this should appreciate nicely. Plus, this is another commander who tells you exactly what to do, and you ought to listen.

Bonus Spec: Esoteric Duplicator ($2 to $8) – If you’re sacrificing artifacts left and right, you need a way to get some value from the process, and for two mana, you’ll never lose your place in the chain. Please note that you get to do this even if you sacrifice a token, so you can keep giving Tony the same thing over and over again.

This Drop also comes with a bonus: every $200 spent gets you a copy of this Arcane Signet, and that’s a lovely addition if you’re already planning to drop a big chunk of change. Even with these being $40 nonfoil and $50 foil drops, you’re looking at a set of five (the presumed max per account) getting you a Signet. The bundles will likely be where more value can be had, and if you can’t afford to buy both foil and nonfoil, go for the foils first. 

Happy hunting!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.