The Mana Math of Tarkir: Dragonstorm

Welcome to the latest in the ongoing saga to take one set of numbers, spread out over many pages, and create easy-to-understand numbers. I do the work and the calculations To figure out the things we all want most: What am I likely to get when I open a Collector Booster?

My data is all taken from the Collecting Tarkir: Dragonstorm article and from the numbers of cards available in the set. Let’s get into it!

There’s three sets of numbers we need to look at today. This is information that ever since the Lord of the Rings sets, Wizards tries to obfuscate. They don’t want us to know how many of each card is printed, and that’s information we perfectly had in both LTR sets because they gave us the drop rate for those serialized cards. 

Since then, they don’t tell us exact information, just enough to avoid lawsuits. They also move around the information they are required to tell us, to make it difficult, but I’ve got the measure of their current methods, and while they might get more obscure later, right now, we can get lots of information. 

Today, we’re going to focus on the last three cards in a Collector Booster. The other slots have lands, commons and uncommons, and the Commander reprints, and those are much more prevalent than the cards put into these last slots. They are also generally worth less money, and so we don’t need to focus on them. If you really want to know about foil Dragon’s Eye lands (some badass lands, respectable) then you’ll get one about every 13 packs. If you want a specific land, multiply that by five for 65 packs, or just about two and a half boxes.

Our first table is going to address the two special nonfoil slots in a Collector Booster. 

This is relatively straightforward. Nothing is crazy rare, especially because you’re getting two slots. The odds per pack are in bold, because you get a second bite at the apple. Should some of the mythics in a Draconic frame become tournament staples, it’ll be good to know how often they were pulled from packs as people build nonfoil playsets. I especially want to call out the lands, at roughly 1 in 34 packs. These lands have a lot of potential, especially the blue one if control decks get out of hand (or in the mirror!) and we might need to know how many of those were running around. 

Also note that rare clan frame cards with the solid black text box are going to be the pull half the time per slot. Just over 25% of Collector Boosters are going to have two of those, back to back. These Boosters have always been swingy, but barring some awesome rares, those are going to sting pretty badly.

Now, let’s get to the spicy things. The last slot in a Collector Booster is where all the juicy foils can be found. Here’s the complete breakdown. 

The mythics are pretty darn rare, but numbers in the range of 250 are pretty standard by now. We’re used to that, and while it’s not common…it’s not going to be mega-difficult either, for the Draconic, Clan, or Reversible cards. That sort of drop rate tracks with the ‘premium but not top-tier’ level of rarity we’ve been seeing in Standard sets for a while, so that distribution hasn’t been changed much.

There is a change past that, though. The Special Guests for TDM are about a third more likely to show up than they were in Aetherdrift and twice as likely as in Duskmourn Collector Boosters. No one’s going to be complaining about extra fetchlands, though, so while we might get to spec on them I’ll be paying closer attention to the Ultimatums. 

Rarest of all will be the Dragonscale fetches and in a tier beyond that, the Halo Foil Ghostfire cards. We don’t have any Fracture Foils showing up at 1 in 1500 or anything wild like previous sets had. Instead, the Dragonscale fetches are twice as likely to show up in a pack as a Halo Foil Ghostfire Dracogenesis. Each category is 1%, yes, but because there’s five fetches and ten Halo Foil Ghostfire cards, we’ll end up with twice the quantity of Dragonscale lands. (Which is good. I need a set.)

I’m surprised they went away from the Fracture Foil model, considering how successful that treatment has been, but there’s unique art to the Ghostfire cards and that helps. Still, it’s important to know that for every two Fracture Foils of a card, there’s three Halo Foil Ghostfire of a card. (For English language, anyway. Japanese-language Fracture Foils are criminally underrated and overlooked, as I’ve written about and as we’ve covered on MTG Fast Finance)

Finally, let’s talk about the serialized Mox Jasper. Wizards no longer gives us precise information about the drop rate as they did early on, instead relying on the vague “less than 1%” but we can make some estimations. We know roughly how much profit Wizards makes from a Standard set’s Collector Boosters, and we can also surmise that because LOTR was a premium set, there’s more Standard printed. 

From there, it’s math:

Our estimates indicate that the print run for Collector Boosters is something like 4 million packs, or about 167,000 boxes of product. This is based on the print run of the two LOTR sets, the distributor pricing, and the relative profit gained. This is not locked in the way we were in Lord of the Rings, and if I could give you such certainty I would. If Wizards released the right data, I’d update this chart. With this model, it should take around 8,000 Collector Booster packs to open a serialized Mox Jasper. Or your odds are 0.013%, if that number is easier for you to think of.

I’ve also included a breakdown of what those numbers mean for the cards that will be the most widely used, the Dragonscale fetches. At our estimate, there’s 40,000 total, or eight thousand of each land. That means each Dragonscale land will have roughly 16 copies in circulation for each serialized Mox Jasper.

I understand that there will be greater demand for the special fetches, and so the ratio isn’t as important as the play pattern, but useful data remains useful data.  

If you have questions about my methods or the outcomes, please stop by my social media pages, leave a comment, or join the ProTrader Discord for lots more insights. Good luck cracking your packs!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Are We Buying The ‘Our Boss Is On Vacation’ Superdrop?

We’ve gone from this being a Spongebob-only drop to a whole six-pack of extra drops coming along for the ride. Some of these are glorious, others thoroughly mid, and we need to look at the use cases and competition for these cards.

For each drop, I’m pulling the EDHREC data, which does have a caveat about prioritizing the most invested players and there’s a lot of ‘precon plus upgrade’ lists on the site. It’s good data to have, but it is not perfect data.

They Grow Up So Fast

Dragonlord Atarka

EDHREC: 300 as Commander/9k as card

Special Printings: 30th Play Promo Retro Foil ($15)

Dragonlord Ojutai

EDHREC: 1300 as Commander/15k as card

Special Printings: Borderless Foil (30th Countdown) ($9)

Dragonlord Silumgar

EDHREC: 300 as Commander/15k as card

Special Printings: Foil-Etched ($7), Secret Lair Showdown ($14/$265 foil)

Dragonlord Dromoka

EDHREC: 500 as Commander/35k as card

Special Printings: Borderless Foil ($18) and Foil-Etched ($18)

Dragonlord Kolaghan

EDHREC: 100 as Commander/10k as card

Special Printings: Secret Lair Foil ($14)

It’s hard to argue with five solid cards, although the inclusion rates could be higher. As a Dragon enthusiast, I can tell you that it is hard to be one of the 40 best Dragons of all time. You get a choice of arts here, as a 2 for 1, and you get the chance to play a matched set of Dragons too. All it takes for the average value to be $10 and this will end up a positive, and that is entirely dependent on how long they go before printing these again. I’m not confident of that–there’s been special printings within the last two years for most of these, and given the rate of new Dragons, I won’t be in a hurry to get these versions.

That said, I think this is the one most likely to sell out first, and if it goes even before Spongebob sells out (different quantities printed) then the FOMO could have this be a very profitable quick flip. My long-term expectations for these five are quite mediocre, though, and it’s hard to imagine these dragons being more than $15-$20 for the top two or three. 

Garden Buds

Ashaya, Soul of the Wild

EDHREC: 2100 as Commander/86k as card

Special Printings: FEA ($18)

Elvish Reclaimer

EDHREC: 43k

Special Printings: MYB2 Future Frame ($4/$120 foil)

Harrow

EDHREC: 237k

Special Printings:40K Surge Foil ($6), Textless MPR nonfoil ($7)

World Shaper

EDHREC: 78k

Special Printings: None

Horn of Greed

EDHREC: 38k decks

Special Printings: None

The art style here is polarizing, since it’s just as much about the font and layout than the actual art. I’ve got to love the numbers here, from solid to staple, and there’s not a lot of fighting over special printings. I have a special place in my heart for all MPR cards, as someone who was able to get a lot of them during the heyday of the program, so I love this Harrow more than I should.

This is my favorite drop of the set from a finance perspective. The cards all have enough demand and there’s almost no other sweet versions competing for eyeballs and dollars. I will be getting a couple of these. 

Tragic Romance

Kaalia of the Vast

EDHREC: 23,400 as Commander (#8 in last 2 years), 3900 as card

Special Printings: 2X2 Borderless ($40), MH3 Borderless ($38/$97), MH3 Profile ($13/$19) , MH3 Foil-Etched ($7)

Skithryx, the Blight Dragon

EDHREC:1943 as Commander, 37k as card

Special Printings: MUL Foil-Etched ($15), Halo Foil ($55), Serialized ($450+)

Angel of Despair

EDHREC: 18k decks

Special Printings: Full Art Foil Store Championships ($2.50)

Master of Cruelties

EDHREC: 32k decks

Special Printings: 2X2 Foil Etched ($14), RVR Retro Foil ($3), Serialized ($160)

Kaalia was one of the original legends in Commander 2011, and has maintained her popularity due to the wide variety of decks that can be built around her. The Master of Cruelties combo isn’t as consistent as you might hope, but if you attack with Kaalia, drop the Master, they do need to have a blocker or they are indeed dead. Angel of Despair is an original include with Kaalia too, and good ol’ Skittles is a combo unto himself.

We’ve had a lot of ‘Commander plus staples of that Commander’s deck’ drops and mostly those have languished. Astarion and Karlach are more the exception than the rule, we’ve got examples such as Zaxara, Tovolar, and Animar who have seen their drops stay in their original price ranges, rather than zoom to the moon. Kaalia is a bold choice, one of the most popular yet, but Animar is #25 and that drop can be bought for a mere $30. There is room for this to be expensive, but most of the history indicates that if it does go up, it’ll take a long time to get there. 

Twisted Toons

Fatal Push

EDHREC: 22k decks

Special Printings: Secret Lair Showdown ($150), Secret Lair ($20), 2XM Borderless ($25/$16)

Silence

EDHREC: 159k decks

Special Printings: TSR Retro ($12/$86) Secret Lair ($30/$36)

Winds of Abandon

EDHREC: 49k decks

Special Printings: none

Culling the Weak

EDHREC: 105k decks

Special Printings: 2021 JPN Comic Promo ($24), MYB2 White Border ($6 nonfoil)

Young Wolf

EDHREC: 10k decks

Special Printings: INR Borderless (50¢ foil)

Wolf and Push have some decent play numbers outside of Commander, and it’s always nice to pick a card people need several of for Modern, instead of just one for Commander. Winds is a useful Commander card, and this being the first printing outside the regular frame is a nice bonus. I didn’t know Culling the Weak was such a popular card either!

It’s an interesting choice to go cartoony in the same Drop as your big Spongebob release, but that’s where we are. I think this drop has potential, since it’s got a great mix of EDH cards and cards that see Constructed play, but I’m not eager for this drop. 

Pick ‘em and Stick ‘em

Thalia, Heretic Cathar

EDHREC: 234 as Commander, 65k as card

Special Printings: 30th countdown Borderless ($5/$9), INR borderless ($1) and Retro (50¢) foils

Clever Impersonator

EDHREC: 64k decks

Special Printings: none

Hedron Crab

EDHREC: 32k decks

Special Printings: none

Pitiless Plunderer

EDHREC: 215k

Special Printings: Fallout Surge Foil ($24), SPG ($16/$24)

It’s always amused me that Hedron Crab is an $8 card because it lets you target yourself, and Ruin Crab is $1 because it’s opponents only. I think the sticker gimmick is exactly that, something that most people won’t bother with, and a potential nightmare for vendors. Having two first-time special cards, with good art, plus the staple of Plunderer, is enough to make this drop acceptable to me, but my expectations are low for the growth pattern. I think it’ll get there, but it’s going to take a longer time than I want. 

Secret Lair High: Class of ‘87

Aesi, Tyrant of Gyre Strait

EDHREC: 11241 as Commander, 75k as card

Special Printings: none

Anje Falkenrath

EDHREC: 4843 as Commander, 6700 as card

Special Printings: none

Chulane, Teller of Tales

EDHREC: 7636 as Commander, 31k as card

Special Printings: none

Radha, Heart of Keld

EDHREC: 837 decks as Commander, 16k as card

Special Printings: FEA ($1.50)

We’ve had some unusual frames for cards, but it is an incredible choice to go all the way to the 1987 aesthetic for this. These aren’t super-popular cards, though Aesi is $10 due to Simic being always-busted. Under other circumstances, in the old SL model, this would have been my pick for ‘no one buys it, so it gets expensive.’ However, Wizards’ new model is to leave things on the SL site forever, as we wee with Halloween-theme cards like Chucky and Ghostbusters still freely available after nearly six months. This drop will languish on the site forever, and I want no part of it if I can help it.

They have announced that you’ll get a Deadeye Navigator for every $150 spent, and it’s a combotastic card that should fetch around $10, a fun bonus but nothing to get worked up about like the Seedborn Muse was. Bonus is bonus, though, and I appreciate having a little something extra. 

The bundles, if we’re lucky, will be somewhere in the 10% to 15% off range, going by previous drops. I’m not really interested in a mega-bundle of the entre drop, as there’s too many mediocre-to-bad drops for my taste here. This is my ranking:

  1. Spongebob Legends
  2. Spongebob Memes
  3. Spongebob Lands (Somehow in my article last week I missed that you get two of each land!)
  4. Garden Buds
  5. They Grow Up So Fast
  6. Tragic Romance
  7. Pick ‘em and Stick ‘em
  8. Twisted Toons
  9. Class of ‘87

Personally, I might get one all-foil drop and then focus on Spongebob. This summer is going to be an expensive time, with Final Fantasy being something I buy a LOT of, and having extras of these other lairs just doesn’t sing to me. I’m really hoping there is a Spongebob bundle, and then I can get individual Lairs, allowing me to get 10x of the foil memes and legends. I wouldn’t mind 5x of each of the nonfoils, but the legends and memes are the drops I’m maximizing for this Monday.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Who Lives In A Pineapple Under The Sea?

The SpongBob SquarePants Secret Lair is upon us, faster than anyone was anticipating. It goes on sale March 24 at 9 am PST, 12pm EST, or 4 pm Greenwich Mean Time, if that’s your zone. Three drops, and the bonus cards are as yet unknown., but the speculation is rampant and hilarious.

This is a big deal. SpongeBob has more than 300 episodes, has been on since 2010, and that’s not taking into account movies, specials, and the incredible amount of merchandise available under this brand.

So let’s dive to the deck, flop like a fish, and decide if we’re buying.

I want to start with an overview of the specific cards. Sometimes, the cards don’t matter at all, but it’s easier when the cards are at least good. (See: Miku’s first drop, Sakura Superstar) For each drop, I want to list the EDHREC numbers, the number and type of special printings, and the current price of the foil specials (if any). Those are the comparisons most helpful for something like this, although the IP goes a long way. It’s also notable that these three drops are $30 nonfoil and $40 foil, where others have been $40/$50. 

SpongeBob SquarePants: Legends of Bikini Bottom

SpongeBob SquarePants as Jodah the Unifier

EDHREC: 18k as commander (#19 last two years), 16k decks

Special Printings: Showcase foil ($4) and Showcase Textured foil ($10)

This is glorious in so many ways. Spongebob is a friendly dude, happy-go-lucky, and loves to gather his friends together. Jodah does exactly that! The Showcase version is interesting, with the stained glass look of the card, but this rainbow, big eyed, giant smile is pretty hilarious when compared with the wrecking ball that Jodah represents on the board. Win. 

Patrick Star as Barktooth Warbeard

EDHREC: <500 total 

Special Printings: none, only reprint since Legends

This having the ‘I nailed a board to my head somehow’ meme as the art is a great choice. Are there starfish in Magic that have more abilities? Absolutely. But Patrick is dependable, he is what he is and he’s not super complex. Having the flavor text as “I don’t get it” is extra trolly and I am here for it. 

Gary, the Snail as Toxrill, the Corrosive

EDHREC: 6k as commander, 38k decks

Special Printings: Silver Screen foil ($70), Showcase foil ($20)

Toxrill is a powerhouse of a commander, and while the Gary art is very nonthreatening, the irony is hilarious. The Showcase and DBF foils are good, but they won’t stand out in the same way this will, and I expect this to fit between the current special version prices. 

Sandy Cheeks, Martial Astronaut as Toski, Bearer of Secrets

EDHREC: 2k as commander, 178k decks

Special Printings: Showcase foil ($6), SPG foil ($25)

By far the most popular card in this drop, I am expecting big things from Sandy. The SPG version is good, but they took a great character and put her in a great pose and I want this version in all my decks. Toski and Sandy just fit well, and she wants to be in the action, doing things, kicking butt and taking names!

Squidward, Sarcastic Snob as Grazilaxx, Illithid Scholar

EDHREC: 500 as commander, 57k decks

Special Printings: FEA ($1.50), Ampersand ($10)

Squidward is a semi-popular card to include in decks that want to bounce things in and out of play. Ninjas see a lot of value here, as does most flavors of blink decks. There were other choices here for the card but the annoying factor is perfect flavor. 

Mr. Krabs, Penny Pincher as Charix, the Raging Isle

EDHREC: 2500 as commander, 26k decks

Special Printings: FEA ($2)

Not a lot of iconic crabs in Magic, but I am glad they skipped making this a Ruin/Hedron mill crab. Only really good in heavy blue decks, but this does see play in toughness matters, either for milling or for toughness-as-power reasons. 

Plankton, Tiny Tyrant as Skrelv, Defector Mite

EDHREC: 1500 as commander, 86k decks

Special Printings: Showcase ($3) and Step-and-Compleat ($8)

This is the most tournament-played card in the drop, and might help the nonfoil version of the drop sell better/hold a price better. It’s also worthy for any Commander deck that needs to keep the commander safe. 

SpongeBob SquarePants: Internet Sensation

Counterspell

EDHREC: 1.14 million decks

Special Printings: Several, with a very wide range of prices.

SpongeBob’s face doing this, put onto Counterspell, might be the most iconic combination of art, intent, and card use possible. I can see this as Rhystic Study “DiD yOu PaY tHe OnE” sort of thing but this is glorious in every way possible. Is there a non-Vintage Cube that wouldn’t love to have this art?

Daze

EDHREC: 20k decks

Special Printings: Invocation ($200)

I thought there had been something else over the years, a SPG or anything, but no, this is the only other special printing of Daze and that alone might be worth the price of admission. Even better is that you’ll get a certain number of Legacy players who need not just one copy, but four matching ones. 

Inevitable Betrayal

EDHREC: 36k decks

Special Printings: MH2 Retro and FEA (Both $1)

I had straight-up forgotten that this card exists, but the art makes me want to play it in every blue deck! Sure, Bribery is better, but it doesn’t make the whole table nervous for a couple turn cycles. Again, iconic combination of art and card, someone at WotC deserves a bonus for this.

Force of Despair

EDHREC: 31k

Special Printings: Secret Lair Prize ($15 foil)

There are a lot of Magic cards that refer to sadness, depression, and feelings of being alone, and Force of Despair is a worthy inclusion. Sacrificing, and especially taking fun away from others, is a great way to use this art. 

Night’s Whisper

EDHREC: 245k decks

Special Printings: Retro Foil WPN ($1), Dracula SL ($7 foil)

Creepy, accurate, and hilarious. Everything you want a SL to be. This should easily become the most expensive version, and I hope I have the chance to buy in cheap.

SpongeBob SquarePants: Lands Under the Sea

No point listing all the sweet cards here. Great choices from the show, and Gary features in all of them as a happy little snail taking a tour. This will be more popular than you think.

There’s a lot of discussion on how the bonus card is very likely to be SpongeBob’s house as Command Tower, and there’s a lot of folks who would love for that to be true. Including me.

Overview

One of the things I’m expecting here is a massive print run for this set. We know that the Miku lairs were cranked up between the first and the last  in terms of print run, and despite all the tech glitches and problems, the Marvel Lair took several hours to sell out. I don’t think this will sell out in less than a few hours, but the supply will be pretty significant at the outset.

SpongeBob collectibles aren’t a huge market the way they are for Hatsune Miku, but the nostalgia/gifts for kids factor is through the roof here. People will want this just for a physical copy of the memes.

Additionally, I expect the lands to sell out first. It’s reasonable to assume that they printed less of the lands, since lands are usually the worst-selling part of a Lair. From a psychology perspective, it also gooses interest to have something sell out early, and push hype towards getting the rest of it sold. I imagine there will be some minor bundle discount, and I will be maxing out the bundles as best I can.

If I were ranking these, it would go memes-legends-lands, but I’m a big believer in this drop and I will be investing in both foils and nonfoils. A full set of both would be about $210, and based on past pricing, the bundle price will be something like $180. That price point is just under 15% off and I plan to max out there, getting additional single foil drops as well.

I think this drop has all the hallmarks of a success, and the only question for me is how many hours it will take to sell out. I plan on buying a lot, and I would encourage you to do the same.

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Preparing for Rotation in Fall 2025

With everything going on, with all the different previews happening, it’s really easy to lose track of the calendar. One of the things happening this year is that when Edge of Eternities comes out in August, Standard is rotating, and we’re losing several sets: Dominaria United, The Brothers’ War, Phyrexia: All Will Be One, and March of the Machine. Plus Aftermath, too, but that set barely counts most days.

Standard rotation is a tricky thing, as most card prices are driven by Eternal formats, like Modern or Commander, but there’s still quite a few cards whose prices are propped up by Standard and now is the time you want to sell off everything you aren’t using, before the big dumping starts in June or so. Let’s talk about the cards to sell, and the ones to keep.

Let’s take a moment and examine the phenomenon historically, so you can be sure that this is the right play, selling five months early. I’ll use a couple of examples from last year’s rotation, which was SNC, NEO, MID, and VOW. Let’s start with the graph for Ledger Shredder:

Shredder was everywhere, and while it’s still seeing play in Arclight Phoenix builds for both Modern and Pioneer, that’s not enough to sustain the price with so many copies. The price has dropped by half, and that means you could have sold out, waited, and re-bought the cards after rotation. You’d have the same cards plus $24 on a playset!

The Wandering Emperor makes for another good example: 

In March of last year, it was selling briskly at $30 a copy, but that’s when the slide started. In August, when it rotated, it was down to $10 and now it’s $5. That’s a lot of value you’re leaving behind if you move too late, and that’s what I want to help you avoid. Even cards that are popular in other formats take a hit too. Boseiju, Who Endures, since it’s used very widely in Modern and Commander, had its price go from $40 down to $30 at rotation, and hit a low of $25 in December, but it’s crept back up to $30 since. 

I have two metrics in mind here, the combination of ‘lots of current Standard play’ and ‘over $5 in price. Under that price, there isn’t a lot to be gained, because after rotation, it’ll still be close to that price, though maybe $2.50 instead of $4. Cards which aren’t in favor in Standard currently have already taken a big hit price-wise, and so while I’ll be mentioning several cards which are still expensive enough to warrant selling, we really want to focus on the cards we can make the most from.

Additionally, I’m focused on the basic nonfoils, because premium versions are more insulated from rotation. Those copies are in Commander decks, or foiled-out Modern ones, and therefore aren’t getting taken out of decks and resold. The Standard players, though, they got the most basic ones and they are gonna resell them.

Dominaria United

Sheoldred, the Apocalypse – Currently just over $70 for a nonfoil, basic frame version, this is the flagship card for what I want you to do. There are already 450 copies on TCGPlayer, and that’s before people start listing theirs. Yes, this is a great card for and against Ketramose, but there are a boatload of Standard decks playing with 2-4 copies of the Praetor and we can expect her price to drop by at least half. I think that between Commander (where this card is brutally good) and the occasional Modern deck it won’t go much below $35, but I would definitely not be holding any basic copies longer than I needed to.

Zur, Eternal Schemer – Zur is big big big in the Domain and Overlord type builds that make up a large section of the current metagame. Currently at $14, he’s headed for being sub-$5, since Commander is the only spot where he sees notable amounts of use. Modern and Pioneer just aren’t his territory, except for the loyal few who play Enigmatic Incarnation in Pioneer. 

Liliana of the Veil – Easy to forget she’s Standard-legal again, but she’s already at $12 from the times she’s been reprinted. I’m expecting her copies to slide under $10, but probably not as far as $5.

Temporary Lockdown – It’s just over $5 now, but it’ll end up being a dollar. This card has seen some wild fluctuations in its time, and if you’ve got spares, let them go now. 

The Brothers’ War

Amazingly, from this set, there’s nothing that fits my criteria. Stuff is either already very cheap or it’s a card popular in other formats like Commander or Modern. 

Phyrexia: All WIll Be One

Atraxa, Grand Unifier  – At $18, you might be thinking she gets enough Modern and Legacy and Commander love to keep that price. You’d be wrong. By the end of August, she’ll be under $10, but the premium copies in those reanimator decks will all be sitting pretty. There’s just going to be too many sellers and not enough buyers. 

Jace, the Perfected Mind – This is an interesting case, because the Phyrexian copies are cheaper than the regular copies. He can be had for $6 right now, and that’s going to be more like $3 in six months. Get what you can, while you can. He’s being used as a finisher for Standard control decks, and that’s it. Please don’t hang on too long.

March of the Machine (and Aftermath)

Faerie Mastermind – While this is a great card in Commander, present in 150k decks, we’re up against the numbers problem. Everyone who’s on Dimir Bounce as a deck has four of these, and that’s a whole lot of copies that will end up on the market in the next few months. A slide is inevitable, a reprint is also quite likely. We know there’s a return to Lorwyn coming, and Faeries are indeed a thing on that plane. Seeing the $16 copies slide down to $6 seems very, very likely. This might well bounce back, especially if there’s new Faeries and this avoid a Commander precon reprint, but the slide is our immediate concern. 

Sunfall – There’s only 35k decks that have this registered on EDHREC, which feels low for what this does. Its biggest issue is that Farewell is now the default board wipe, and everything else lives in its shadow. Sunfall is just over $5 now, and that’s with Standard demand propping it up. At rotation, it might well be $2 or less. 

Tranquil Frillback – Another $6 card, the set it was in represents its greatest strength. Aftermath was one of the least-opened products of Magic’s history, and a model that Wizards has said they want to steer away from. Rotation will steal a couple dollars from this, but there’s a minimum level of interest from Commander players and Dinosaur enthusiasts that I might get some cheap.

I hope this helps you plan your selling for the coming months!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

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