Some So-So Superdrops Sell Spectactularly Slowly

October 11, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

We’ve had an interesting blip in terms of Secret Lair drops and how quickly they sell out. Last week, on Sept. 30th, the Camp Totally Safe superdrop went on sale, and unusually for a lair of this quality, the cards contained within didn’t sell out right away.

So today I want to look at other drops which didn’t sell out and where their prices are, to determine how worried I should be about the purchases I made, and also see if there’s lessons to be learned for future Lairs.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Casual Fridays

Early Movement for Duskmourn: House of Horror

October 4, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

The set has been on Arena for a couple of weeks, live on TCGPlayer for a week, and Duskmourn:House of Horror has a lot going on. The Fractured Foils are as rare as expected, the Leylines are caught between useless and broken, and the rest of us are just trying to keep up with the world-encompassing demon.

We’ve had some cards take an early loss and then recover, so let’s talk about the price movements that are happening, and the ones that haven’t happened yet. Remember, most cards are on the fall right now, but depending on the demand, we’re going to get lots of them going crazy eventually.

Abhorrent Oculus (low price of $8, current price of $28) – There’s two things that should have been a sign for this card. First, we know that there’s a whole deck based around making Murktide Regent cost UU to cast, which lines up nicely with the Oculus. Second, being three mana means that Unearth is in play, and that’s a peanut-butter-plus-chocolate combination if ever there was one. We have other ways to cheat with this card, but it creates its own army quickly, replaces itself, and fuels more graveyard silliness.

I expect this to settle down some from the current price, but the factors are there to make this card seriously expensive for some time to come.

Valgavoth, Terror Eater (low of $19, current $24) – A lot of attention is on the group slug version of Valgavoth, but this is an impressively irritating card for reanimation or even semi-fair Cabal Coffers decks. You make them pay a steep cost to get rid of it, and if they don’t you’re swinging life totals by 18 every attack. On top of that, your newly gained life allows you to replay the things that died!

Razorkin Needlehead (low of $2.50, up to $14, currently $10) – We’ve been pretty bullish on this card both for Standard and for Commander, as it’s really easy to have this one card deal 15-20 points of damage in a single game. We’re programmed to draw as many cards as possible, for good reason, and this demands removal, which is a good thing. If you bought in early, as we pointed out in the Discord, then you should be looking to exit soon.

Overlord of the Hauntwoods (low of $15, up to $25, now $20) – This is making a splash in the Domain decks for Standard, as well as being a popular Commander card. I’d like it more if the land token had hexproof, but there’s not a lot of drawbacks to the bonus land. I think this will fall back down to $15 or lower unless it starts getting adopted in a lot more decks.

Duskmourn has also given us some cards that I want to pay attention to in the longer-term, both for bannings and for future use:

Leyline of Resonance (started $15, now $4) – The Leyline is responsible for some truly ridiculous wins in Standard right now. We’ve got two one-mana spells that give +3/+0 and have a bonus beyond that, to go with multiple creatures that benefit from being targeted, and more than one ‘when this dies, deal damage equal to its power’ creature. Plus the entire deck is cheap in wildcards and cash price, which means it’s infesting all of the BO1 queues right now. The deck also runs Witch’s Mark, which is a fantastic way to discard two, draw four when Leyline is out.

A lot of people online are calling for the Leyline to be banned, especially because it’s hideously busted in multiples. The next B/R announcement is December 16, and if Leyline stays unbanned, I expect it to start to grow in price. I also think Turn Inside Out has real potential to be a $3 common eventually, given the things it does for the decks that run it.

The Verge Lands (started $10, now in $4-$7 range) – Untapped dual lands are the business, and since this is the first printing, all five of these are on my radar as long-term specs. I’m hoping the BR and the UW lands especially get cheap, but alongside the Surveil lands, these represent an easy way to have two of two colors open on turn two, which is not true in lots of formats.

Fear of Missing Out (Started $12, now $3) – Extra-combat cards are never to be sneezed at, and this one comes with several things that make the card desirable. It’s cheap, it can work quickly, and it can put a game away. The only thing holding it back is that it needs to be attacking, and something like Enduring Courage can make this a terrifying topdeck. It’s been a long time since we had such an easy second combat, though, so when this gets super cheap I’ll be wanting a brick.

Casual Fridays, Uncategorized

Are We Buying The Camp Totally Safe Secret Lair Superdrop?

September 27, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

The Secret Lair machine keeps churning, and for Halloween month, we’re getting a set of eight drops that are themed appropriately.

Amazingly, there are no lands on this list, and nothing in a regular frame. Only one drop even has a showcase frame, the rest are borderless or esoteric, which suits me just fine.

So let’s get into the cards, the IP offerings, and my current purchase plans.

Hatsune Miku: Electric Entourage

Elspeth Tirel (50¢ to $24, 15,000 decks)

Jace, Unraveler of Secrets ($4 to $19, 13k) – Zombie and Hieroglyph SDCC versions!

Liliana of the Dark Realms ($16 to $400, 29k) – Textured foil from BLB and SDCC black versions!

The Royal Scions (50¢ to $3, 5k)

Freyalise, Llanowar’s Fury ($2 to $6, 31k plus 1500 as Commander)

Chandra, Flamecaller (50¢ to $17, 11k decks)

This is the third Miku drop and there’s not much new to say about the singer or Vocaloids. I’d forgotten that this version of Jace was in two consecutive SDCC sets, and yet is still not very popular. Liliana of the Dark Realms was just in Bloomburrow, and also has a silver-on-black SDCC version that is impossible to read in person.

I fully expect this drop to be the first one to sell out, just like the first two did. My current plan once the fourth drop arrives later this year is to repackage all four into complete sets and sell them that way. I’m also going to be heavily targeting the English foils, as those are the big gainers. The Japanese-language cards haven’t really grown in value yet.

Featuring Peach Momoko

Psychic Corrosion ($6 to $15, 41k decks)

Visions of Beyond ($7 to $10, 17k)

Time Sieve ($7 to $33, 33k)

Aetherize ($1 to $3, 118k decks!)

Drown in Dreams (bulk to $2, no foils, 37k decks)

Peach Momoko is a big artist in the Marvel world, doing some very cool variant covers. This is a fun set of blue cards, mostly mill-themed, and that’s a set that many casual players love. Aetherize is one of my favorite Commander plays, as there’s no defense aside from counterspells and can be deployed politically.

I expect this lair to do well and sell out. There’s no big anchor card but there doesn’t need to be, with a theme like this and with fantastic art.

Tome of the Astral Sorceress

Back to Basics ($4 to $40, 21k decks)

Preordain ($1 to $35, 251k decks!)

Sphinx of the Second Sun ($1 to $20, 36k decks)

Teferi’s Ageless Insight ($2 to $6, 117k decks!)

I really want to like this drop. I like some abstract art, I like having two strong staples. However, I have to acknowledge that Poker Faces, Goblingram, and Deceptive Divination are the closest analogies we have for this sort of thing and those haven’t lit anything up yet. If I end up with any of these, it’ll be because I bought all-foil bundles. Otherwise, I’m skipping it.

Showcase: Duskmourn

Phyrexian Metamorph ($5 to $25, 155k decks)

Dauthi Voidwalker ($10 to $90, 195k decks)

Magus of the Moon ($6 to $26, 34k decks)

Cauldron Familiar ($2 to $10, 27k decks)

Witch’s Oven ($1 to $3, 32k decks)

If there wasn’t a Miku drop and a set of nostalgia-heavy cards, this would be my lock. Oven-Familiar is not in a lot of Commander decks but it’s a four-of combo in sacrifice decks for Pioneer and Modern. Voidwalker and Metamorph are staples of the format, and I am going to be getting extras here.

Monstrous Magazines

Ravenous Chupacabra (bulk to $10, 99k decks) – SL from 2021

Mazirek, Kraul Death Priest ($9 to $20, 39k deck plus 1900 as Commander) – SL from 2023

Uril, the Miststalker ($1 to $6, 3500 as Commander)

Koma, Cosmos Serpent ($4 to $13, 52k decks plus 5k as Commander)

Doom Whisperer ($1 to $12, 37k decks)

Two of these already have a SL version, and I have to say this art is better all around. Doom Whisperer especially is a card I want to have in a deck, even if it does look like three-handed AI art. This is a solid drop, with a lot to offer, including how the Chupacabra bears an eerie resemblance to the big dogs from the original Ghostbusters movie.

Edit: As a bonus, on the official summary of the Lairs, because of the Koma misprint, all versions will be $5 off, making this $35/$25 and even more appealing.

Child’s Play

Kardur, Doomscourge (bulk prices, 60k plus 4500 as Commander)

Varragoth, Bloodsky Sire ($2 to $7, 53k, plus 1800 as Commander)

Twinflame ($3 to $12, 70k decks)

Phyrexian Reclamation ($4 to $24, 87k decks)

Genesis Chamber ($2 to $23, 32k decks)

Kardur is more popular than I would have guessed, but looks like a blast to play. When the table builds up, you get to set it all off! Reclamation is a hard card to beat, and while this isn’t a big set of cards financially, the theme is good enough that I’ll probably get a couple of extras. As I wrote last week, it’s not about the cards being my cup of tea; I just need the tea to be popular and Chucky has been popular enough to spawn seven movies after the first one.

Ghostbusters: Slimer

The Mimeoplasm (bulk to $5, 5k as card and 5k as Commander) – SL in 2020

Trickbind ($15 to $90, 12k decks) – First Reprint Ever

Windfall ($2 to $7, 295k decks) – first special frame (30th promo)

Incarnation Technique ($8 to $9, 27k) – First Foil

Pernicious Deed ($5 to $60, 18k) –

Trickbind getting its first reprint ever means it’s a scarcity price, not a demand price. Incarnation Technique is a delightful political card, and this should be the most expensive Windfall pretty quickly. Slimer is iconic, and while I would have picked some different movie moments for the drop, I’m pretty sure this will be gone within a few hours.

The Real Ghostbusters – Animated

Unlicensed Hearse ($1 to $5, 18k decks)

Boros Charm ($2 to $20, 257k decks)

Careful Study ($1 to $40, 23k decks)

Eladamri’s Call ($7 to $20, 114k decks)

Living End ($4 to $22, 2500 decks)

Again, we’ve got a card that is a four-of in its Constructed deck, but also two fantastic staples. Boros Charm was in Valentine’s Day 2021, and while this is less cute, it’s more iconic. This is the first special version for Eladamri’s Call, and that alone would have me thinking it’s worth the drop, but add in the greatness of the cartoon and we are there.

So, with all this in mind, here’s my current thinking for what I’ll be buying: First off, lots of Miku. The English foils are the fastest risers and if you just want a quick flip that’s where you should be. I have confidence in the whole set long-term, but it’s easy to see where the fast money is. I’m a believer in the Ghostbusters drops and the Chucky too, and definitely the Showcase.

Given that the all-foil bundle discount is usually around 13-15%, I’ll have to do some thinking about if that’s worth it to end up with the Tome of the Astral Sorceress. The Monster Magazine will probably be fine long-term, but the Tome Drop feels like a dud when compared with others in that sort of art style, so the exact amount will be the determining factor.

We usually get a mini-bundle of all four Miku, and if that’s offered again I’ll probably get three of those plus five of the EN foils. I’m hopeful for a mini-bundle of Ghostbusters (maybe with Chucky?) because I plan to max out on those as well as the Showcase.

Good luck and happy buying on Monday!

Uncategorized

Will The Ghostbusters Secret Lairs Be Worth the Trouble?

September 21, 2024 Cliff Daigle Leave a comment

On Monday, September 30th, there’s a new Secret Lair dropping, with a wide range of cards, art, and Intellectual Property (IP for short, the term used when you want to use the fandom/art/characters/lore/etc). It’s mostly Halloween based, but there’s still a few more cards coming, I think, so today I want to focus on an idea that Secret Lairs have been using: Does the card quality matter more than the fandom?

I used to be a strong believer that the cards matter. We can find many examples of this, but the core principle for me was that the cards in a drop have to be at least playable for people to give a crap.

And then Hatsune Miku came along.

I broke down the prices for these when they came out back in May, and I was expressly clear about the IP being the draw and not the cards. Nothing in this drop is more than $4 in its base version, this is incomplete sets of niche lands, cards that have been power crept out of wide usage, and in English foil, the sealed drop is pushing $100 four months later.

I think there’s opportunity in the other sealed Miku drops–I’m expecting all four Miku drops to hit a peak when the fourth lands near the end of this year and they can be sold as four-volume sets–that are under $50 with shipping and taxes, but be wary of trying to hold forever, holding out for something like $200. That price can happen (see Princess Bride and Evil Dead) but I like turning cards over and getting your profit reinvested into your next moves.

I did not know who Hatsune Miku was. I knew I’d missed out on other drops because I underestimated the artist, or the genre, or anything like that. I’d even under-ordered things I knew I’d like but I didn’t think would be big, like the Princess Bride or Evil Dead. That is the core question of Secret Lairs now that they have moved to an IP/theme model: Which themes are going to resell best?

For example, the Spookydrop 2023 is the one that had Evil Dead, Princess Bride, and some other things like Doctor Who’s Weeping Angels and Creepshow. They were bundled together, but this is from the model of Secret Lair that did not sell out–they printed to demand. That’s been a huge change, but even so, for drops that happened at the same time, we’ve got a giant gap in pricing. Evil Dead and Princess Bride are over $150, nearing $200, and Creepshow is at half that price, as is the Dr. Who.

So the question of the moment is: Will Ghostbusters be Princess Bride or will it be Creepshow?

My inclination is to think that Ghostbusters (both the cartoon SL and the Slimer SL) will sell well. Both because the IP is strong and nostalgic, very important in this age of Magic pandering to the folks in their early 40s, but also because it’s going to sell alongside the next Miku installment, and that will be gone quickly.

I recognize that the cards in the Ghostbusters drop are not Field of the Dead-level inclusions, and that’s okay. Not everything needs to be powerful reprints. I could wish for more iconic scenes, like the hallway, but I get what they are going for. It’s also okay that they went for one set with Slimer in 1984, and then one set with The Real Ghostbusters, the animated version. (Ever wanted to know why it wasn’t called just ‘Ghostbusters’ as the movie was? Do you remember some show with a ghost-faced car and a giant talking gorilla? Here’s the explainer you want.) They are trying to tap a wide net of nostalgia, adding a Chucky drop that I’ll address next week when I go through the drop set by set.

The core point here is that it’s okay if the IP of a drop ‘isn’t for you’ because they aren’t trying to make each one be for everyone. They are casting a wide net and eventually they will get to the things you like. Slimer represents one of their favorite things to do lately: Choose a commander, give that commander sweet art, and then add in several cards that are popular in that commander’s deck. Sometimes that’s an IP of Ghostbusters for The Mimeoplasm. Sometimes that’s a bubble-lettered Zaxara, the Exemplary and a bunch of Hydra accessories.

Strong IP means that the cards can be weak and people buy the cards just to be collectors, not as much for the playing. I know I have a binder just for SL leftovers that I couldn’t fit into a deck, and flipping through those pages makes me happy.

The core lesson, though, is simple: The IP has to be evaluated on its own merits, not just through the lens of your own enjoyment. James and I talked about the D&D superdrop before it landed, and we thought that the Astarion and Karlach drops were solid, if not great. We did not give proper respect to the number of people who love these characters, and they caused the drops to sell out quite rapidly.

To put it another way, this doesn’t have to be for you, it just has to be for enough people. Creepshow was a little too niche and hasn’t popped off. Evil Dead, Princess Bride, those are much more widely loved and their prices have gone up.

I’m going to make purchases as though Ghostbusters will sell out quickly, and I encourage you to do the same.

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