Monthly Archives: September 2014

City of Traders

Review Squared: Journey Into Nyx

4 Comments

By: Travis Allen

Khans of Tarkir, or perhaps more appropriately “Fetchlands of Tarkir,” is bearing down on us quickly. There will be no shortage of things to talk about once we get there, but before we do I want to take a quick look back at Journey Into Nyx. I’ve started publicly reviewing my reviews as an additional level of accountability, and as a learning exercise both for my readers and I. Seeing the calls I made and why I made them can help both you and I be better at it in the future. It also provides a scoreboard for everyone keeping track at home for how well I’m doing. It’s very easy to say “oh X card will be worth $20” or “z is trash and will be bulk,” then forget all about those predictions when they don’t come true. I don’t mind tooting my own horn when I made a public statement and it comes true later, but I’m also willing to own up when I made a bad call, as I did last week in reference to the return on the fetchlands.

A quick note on those: since the article went up there’s been a lot more discussion on the topic. While I steadfastly believe they aren’t in Fate Reforged, I’m warming up to them being in Louie. I still am not wholly convinced, and Chas Andres also agrees that they are unlikely there, but I’d be the worst kind of person if I refused to learn from my mistakes and the insight of others.

That said, let’s see how I did with my review of Journey Into Nyx. Italics will be text from the original review.

White

Bulk:
Dawnbringer Charioteers
Dictate of Heliod
Launch the Fleet
Skybind

All right where I want them to be. Launch the Fleet is hanging on at the upper end of bulk as there are whispers it may be good enough. Perhaps in two months it will be. It’s right where anticipated for rotation though.

 

Aegis of the Gods
Rotation: Bulk

Currently $1 on MTGPrice, I was spot on here. It’s seen close to no play at in any format.

 

Deicide
Rotation: Bulk – $1

$1.96 on MTGPrice, and about $1-$1.50 on TCGP. Admittedly better than bulk, but not by much.

 

Godsend
Rotation: $2-$3

$5.63 on MTGPrice right now, with a few copies available at $3.50 on TCGPlayer. I had the right idea about where this was going to land, although it’s a few bucks more than I thought it may be. My expectations of its competitive chops were accurate, so I think what we’re seeing here is the limited supply of Journey pushing the price a little higher than the card would normally have. Same thing for Deicide, and many other cards I’ll be looking at today.

 

Blue

Bulk:
Daring Thief
Hypnotic Siren
Polymorphous Rush
Scourge of Fleets

Battlefield Thaumaturge
Rotation:???

I don’t think Thaumaturge will take off right away. There isn’t anywhere he belongs yet so it will take time for him to find a deck. Delver took some time before he had a proper home, after all. We may even have to wait for rotation and the subsequent cardpool/metagame to undergo a major shift. He’ll require the right enablers for sure. If we get the right mix of spells he’ll be a format role-player, but if we don’t get the tools he’ll be filling boxes of shame nationwide. His best chance today is probably going to be with Young Pyromancer.

I mostly talked about how good the card seems like it could be, and I still stand by that assessment. More problematically is that since this review Thaumaturge was printed in an event deck. After what happened with Advent of the Wurm, I’m staying away from anything in those decks. Thaumaturge may eventually end up a few bucks but I’m not going to own any when it does.

 

Dictate of Kruphix
Rotation: Bulk – $1

Bingo.

 

Sage of Hours
Rotation: $2-$3

$1.96 on MTGPrice. Overall he’s a tad cheaper than I expected, but this is a slow grower anyways. I’m still a big fan of this long term, and with the recently spoiled Hardened Scales this could potentially be a fringe player in Standard. Not good, mind you, since Wizards doesn’t want combo anywhere near Standard, but a fringe player nonetheless.

 

Black

Bulk:
Dictate of Erebos
Doomwake Giant
Extinguish All Hope
King Macar, the Gold-Cursed
Silence the Believers
Worst Fears

 

Master of the Feast
Rotation: Bulk? $10?

Master of the Feast is going to be an all or nothing card. Either the drawback is going to be too much and he’s going to end up at total bulk, or he’s going to pull a Desecration Demon and climb to $10+. Either way, I think he’s hitting $1 before he gets his chance to shine so you’ll have some time to make a decision either way.

This has proven reasonably accurate so far. He’s dropped to $3.50 on MTGPrice and I haven’t seen him in a single competitive list yet. There’s clearly a bit of lingering demand, as he hasn’t quite fallen all the way into the bulk bin yet. He’s been steadily dropping since release, so my prediction that he reaches $1 before possibly spiking is still viable. At this point in time I’d say it seems more likely he ends up at under $2 rather than tears up Standard.

 

Red

Bulk:
Bearer of the Heavens
Dictate of the Twin Gods
Harness by Force
Spawn of Thraxes
Twinflame

 

Eidolon of the Great Revel
Rotation: Bulk – $1

This is my biggest miss by a wide margin, so let’s see what went wrong. Here’s what I had to say about it.

Probably more important for Legacy and Modern than Standard…The Legacy and Modern implications will be different. Both formats are packed with small spells so he’ll have much more relative strength. He’ll die more often for sure, but at least anything that’s killing him is probably going to shock it’s controller….The biggest issue financially is that there’s going to be exactly one deck in each format that wants to cast him. This isn’t like Courser of Kruphix that can go in any deck that makes green mana. Eidolon only goes in the most aggressive of red lists, which means the overall demand for him will remain lowish. I see him slipping towards bulk prices, but I don’t think he’ll get too far below $1 or so. I don’t believe that he’s a Vexing Devil or Goblin Guide, but he’s still better than Firedrinker Satyr. If he has a very slow descent or even seems surprisingly resilient after the honeymoon period is over, that probably means the casual market likes him, which will make him safe as a long-term pickup regardless of his tournament success.

I was mostly correct in my power level read, perhaps being a tad conservative. I was also right that it would be a bigger deal in Modern and Legacy than Standard. Where I erred appears to be in my appreciation for how much a card of this caliber can cost. It turns out that being one of the best burn spells in eternal formats, even if it is only playable in exactly the burn deck, is enough to make the card worth over $7. There’s also some amount of casual burn demand that I overlooked. Plenty of individuals out there that enjoy playing Lava Spike at their kitchen table, I’m sure much to the chagrin of their peer group. I did have the foresight to give myself an out; I commented that if his price didn’t decline as quickly as you would think that there would be more than the originally anticipated demand. I still feel far short of where I needed to be though.

The lesson here is that single-deck staples are still capable of reaching respectable prices, even for decks I personally don’t care much for. I had the right idea with Revel, but didn’t respect how much a card of that type can be worth. In the future I need to recognize that multi-format staples, even if they’re only a staple in a single deck, will probably fetch at least several dollars.

 

Prophetic Flamespeaker
Rotation: $8+

Flamespeaker is $5.64 on MTGPrice right now, so while I was a little aggressive, I’m still in the right neighborhood.

Being a mythic from a small spring set as this, it won’t take much to get his price up. I think he’s going to come down from his roughly $10 preorder price in the near future, but will climb above $10 again when people start realizing how much power he puts on the table.

Flamespeaker has seen some occasional play in Modern Jund, as well as a handful of Standard builds floating around. There isn’t much doubt to his power level, rather, it’s a question of whether anyone can utilize it. The fact that he isn’t $2 or $3 means I didn’t completely miss and that people are on board, just not enough yet. I think I was afraid of missing the next big thing here, so I set the price a little higher in the hopes that it wouldn’t look like I way undervalued him if he was $15 today.

Overall I don’t feel too bad about this. I think it’s entirely possible he does climb above $10 in the next two months, and even if he didn’t, I was only slightly too eager.

 

Green

Bulk:
Dictate of Karametra
Hero’s Bane
Hydra Broodmaster
Pheres-Band Warchief
Setessan Tactics

 

Eidolon of Blossoms
Rotation: $3-$7

I expect Eidolon of Blossoms to very slowly dwindle towards $2-3 but it may be sticky due to people wanting to try it out and likely needing three to four copies. I don’t think it will really get a whole lot lower than that as some people will always be interested. Beyond that, if it does turn out to be solid it will behave like Courser of Kruphix and Sylvan Caryatid. I wouldn’t get rid of these at the Prerelease, and if it’s the type of card you see yourself playing, don’t feel bad about trading for a playset. The worst that happens is that you trade for them at $2-$3 and they end up at $1.

While my expectation of Blossoms’ price was a little high, overall I was spot on. My description of the power level was fairly accurate. It dwindled in value after release, and after a solid performance at the Pro Tour it jumped north of $4. Only in the last few weeks has it dwindled back beneath the $3 mark. What’s  keeping Blossoms from being $10 is that it hasn’t seen much success since the Pro Tour. The complete lack of support in M15 but rather the printing of Back to Nature didn’t help, that’s for sure. Khans looks like it may provide some assistance though, as Courser is poised to be one of the best cards in the format and the Ascendancy cycle is looking like it may be playable at this point. In general I may have been a little on the eager side of things when it came to Blossoms, but I’m pleased with the call.

 

Gold

Bulk:
Revel of the Fallen God

 

Ajani, Mentor of Heroes
Rotation: $9-$13

I fell short here, but not by an embarrassing amount.

The one thing Ajani has going for him will be his relative scarcity. That may push his price a bit higher than we would normally see for a fringe Planeswalker. If he does about as well as I expect, he should mostly be in the low teens and even under ten. If he sticks around $15, it will be because of the spring set bump.

With a current price of $16.50, it’s clear Ajani outperformed my expectations by ten or twenty percent. He’s been mildly playable so far in Standard, but on the other hand I didn’t see any copies at the recent SCG invitational in New Jersey either. I also made sure in the original review to recognize the possibility of his price sticking a little higher with attribution to the set size.

I feel like my read on his power level was quite accurate given how much tournament play he’s seen, which leads me to believe that the reason his price is higher than I anticipated is because of set economics. That’s not a bad place to be.

 

Athreos, God of Passage
Rotation: $14-$18+?

Hoo boy, now that is a God. He’s aggressively costed, revives a previously-successful Standard archetype, and will be popular in EDH. Those are all markers of a hefty price tag. The only reason I’m not expecting $40+ is because there is a little too much else going on in this set for him to turn into a Voice of Resurgence.

People think Athreos is good, and for good reason. Because of that his price will be slow to fall. If he sees very little Standard play, I don’t think he can get much below $10-$13. If he’s part of a major Standard deck, expect him to stick closer to $20, or perhaps even more depending on how pronounced the small set effect is.

This wasn’t as bad as Eidolon of the Revel, but it was close. Athreos was possibly the most-hyped card coming into the set. Many saw him as a legitimate engine, capable of putting a lot of pressure on the opponent either through creature recursion or life payments. While it isn’t the type of card I like to play, I respected the excitement of those around me and judged his price accordingly.

To be fair, it took over a month before he dropped below $15 on MTGPrice so clearly there was continuing demand. He just couldn’t cut it though, and subsequently his price dropped to match his tournament results. His golden age has probably passed, so at $8 I’d probably ship him now.

I messed up Revel pretty good but I’m not beating myself up over Athreos. Many people, including pros, really thought Athreos was going to be a big player. I listened to those around me and made a call based on that. If he was as good as people thought he may have been, my numbers would have been where they needed to be. Ultimately this is a miss, but one in which I think I made the right play and got a bad result.

 

Iroas, God of Victory
Rotation: $6-$9

People will play him, and there will be some casual appeal, but it won’t be enough to keep him inflated with several other spicy mythics and rares in the set. The small set effect should keep him above Nylea and Heliod, but not by too much.

Currently at $5.38 on MTGPrice, I like where I landed on this guy. I said he should be more expensive than Nylea and Heliod. Nylea is seeing a bit of a renaissance right now and has climbed a bit above Iroas, but Heliod remains low.

 

Keranos, God of Storms
Rotation: $6-$9

On the one hand, Keranos has the best or second best text box of all the gods this time around. He is always doing something that matters, whether it’s putting cards into your hand or draining your opponent’s board/life total. On the other hand he’s a little expensive and it will take some time for his ability to really take a game over. I think he’s nearly as playable as Athreos is, but unlike Athreos will likely not be a four-of wherever he ends up. We also don’t have a home for him to slot into right away which makes it tougher for him to maintain his current $10-$15. The best advice I can give on Keranos is to expect nothing in the short term, but pay close attention to the block Pro Tour.

Keranos is $16 right now but I’m totally calling this a win. Why? From June 1st to September 1st, he was in the $6-$9 range. It was only a week or so ago that his price rose so dramatically. I am also under the impression that his spike was due in part to a buyout, which can change prices prematurely. (Not unfounded changes mind you, just premature.) Once we started to see him pop up in Modern occasionally or two after release I was warming up to him, and was recommending him as a pickup by the time we hit August. I had an accurate read at release, and I was able to update my opinion on him over the summer as it became clear he was a threat in more than one format.

 

Kruphix, God of Horizons
Rotation: $3-$5

Currently $3.43. The price is dead on and my review of “Ugh.” says everything else.

 

Pharika, God of Affliction
Rotation: $4-$6

Pharika is preselling on Channelfireball right now for a whopping $7 so there obviously there isn’t a whole lot of hype surrounding her at this point. Most people are relatively unimpressed, but I’ve heard from a few intelligent people that there’s some silver lining here. She’s cheap with a nice fat body. She’s in green, so we can see her come down on turn two, potentially allowing you to put four colored mana symbols into play on turn three and swing for five. She recycles your dead bodies into threats, which is great in attrition decks, a common theme for GB. Perhaps most importantly and mostly under the radar, those snakes she puts into play are enchantments. That means they trigger constellation, such as on Eidolon of Blossoms or Underworld Coinsmith or Doomwake Giant.

Will any of that be enough to keep her above bulk god prices? Honestly, probably not. She’s going to slip before she rises again, and if she ever does make it back above $10 I don’t think it will be overnight. You’ll have time to react if she sees an uptick in play and price.

Pharika is $4 at the moment so my price prediction was quite good. She’s done about as much as I thought she would up until now, which is to say basically nothing.

I’ll use this space to say that Pharika is growing on me. As I said earlier, Courser is shaping up to be one of the defining cards of the new meta. Pharika really likes Courser, as he adds double devotion. She also likes cards such as Eidolon of Blossoms, which also likes Courser. How about that! Pharika is even in Sultai, which is giving us delve and the cards to support it. With wedge cards floating around it may not be too tough to turn Pharika on. I’d keep my eye on her going forward.

 

Hall of Triumph
Rotation: $1-$3

Mono-Blue could possibly be in the market for two of these, and decks running Prophetic Flamespeaker could conceivably be interested as well. I believe this will always manage to stay a little above bulk, and will probably climb towards $5 in the months and years after rotation.

At $.74, I’d say I was in the right ballpark. Mono-Blue did in fact start running these, with a few having shown up in the Top 8 of some SCG Opens. That deck has been on the downswing for awhile though, as all the other decks keep getting better and better while it gets nothing. The deck slowing down has prevented Hall of Triumph from getting anywhere. I maintain that the card’s outlook is good two or three years down the line, but that’s a long time to wait to make a dollar or two per card.

 

Lands

Mana Confluence
Rotation: $9-$12

I’d say we’ll see this in the $10-$12 range for the most part, but it may take some time to get there. If it ends up over-performing we’re probably looking at it being $15+. If Thoughtseize can’t break $20, I don’t think MC can.

As of September 3rd, Mana Confluence was just under $11 – right at my predicted target. The next day it jumped to over $16, where it remains today. This, like Keranos, was doing exactly what I expected it to right up until just a few days ago. In Confluence’s case, the spike was a result of PAX. Once the Khans spoilers began trickling in people jumped on Confluence. I figured a jump was coming but I didn’t think we would see it until after rotation. I guess people are getting a little wiser about when they need to grab their staples.

I previously said I didn’t think MC could break $20, but I’m revising that now. While I don’t think it’s an auto-4-of in every wedge deck, I do think it will be an important component of the metagame. The presence of fetchlands should also actually help MC. Fetchlands are “dual” lands right up until you crack them, at which point they no longer offer both colors of mana. For decks trying to hit CDE consistently, fetches may fall short. The Temples and MC will have to do some work to fill in the gaps.

 

The Temples
Rotation: $7-$8+

Most of the other Temples are in the $5-$6 range and there will be considerably more of those than there are of these. Lands nearly always rise at rotation and there’s no reason to expect ones with such a strong effect to behave any differently. Don’t hesitate to trade or buy your set now. You pretty much can’t lose. Hoard any you can get in trade because it’s likely enough that they break $10 that it’s totally worth risking them being $4-$5.

Temple of Epiphany is $7 and Malady is $11 right now. Epiphany is spot on; Malady ended up climbing more than I originally anticipated because of how good the BG combination became in Standard. (It’s currently the most expensive scryland.)

Unless the missing cycle of lands in Khans ends up being a big deal for constructed, I really like the scrylands as a component of Standard manabases with fetches in the format. As I mentioned above, fetches can’t continually make two colors. This is going to put a lot more pressure on Standard decks to keep the scrylands around in order to consistently hit their costs.

 

At the end of the day I’m reasonably pleased with how my prediction of the set went. I did a great job identifying the bulk cards. Two cards that jumped well past my prediction only did so in the last week or two, before that having followed my timeline closely. They’re also two cards that I later on earmarked as good pickups on Twitter and/or in real life, so I was onto them after the review went live.

The biggest miss here was Eidolon of the Great Revel, where I was off by a decimal place. I failed to appreciate just how much demand the older formats and casual circles would place on such a narrow card. I’ll need to be more careful about respecting just how much demand a card such as this can generate. Beyond that a handful of my predictions were off, but only by a handful of dollars at worst. You can’t really expect to get every single card exactly right, so those gaps between my guesses and the true prices are mostly within the accepted margins of error. I’d say I deserve a B+ or an A- on this review, with Revel being my only big strike.

The Gilded Goblin

Ancestral Recall: Casual Demand and Why it’s Important

1 Comment

Jared is on vacation this week, so in the meantime enjoy this piece he originally wrote on March 3rd, 2014.

By: Jared Yost

This one goes out to you casual players. You’re the heart of the game and the reason why Wizards has continued to become more and more successful as the years go on.

Let’s face it, without casual demand like players buying individual booster packs Wizards would close their doors sooner rather than later. The demand for the game and its cards cannot be sustained by the singles market alone. Sure, more financially minded players realize that it is a losing game to keep cracking packs in the hope that you’ll score at least three Brimaz, but for many players the act of opening a pack, smelling the cards, and going through each one and even sometimes being surprised by a valuable card in the pack can’t be understated. There is a reason that Magic’s de facto comic strip is called Cardboard Crack. We can all be severely addicted to our hobbies and Magic doesn’t escape this phenomenon.

One of the ways I learned to save money playing Magic was to stop cracking packs since it is one of the most inefficient ways to acquire valuable cards for your collection. As a casual player though, finance is the last thing on your mind. One of the main reasons that you play the game is to crack packs. Cracking packs is so awesome that they created the Limited format based on around it, because even binder grinders and highly competitive players need a way to crack packs other than to just open them. Not you. You’re just fine with crackin‘ ‘em open, and the more the better. What I’m now going to tell you is that there is a way for you to still satiate your addiction while not throwing value out the window, but it isn’t for the faint of heart.

As players, we can capitalize on our own addiction by setting aside a booster box from each set we want to purchase and then later sell them down the road at a profit as sealed product. Now, I realize that the temptation of opening that booster box may be too much for some of you, yet a very clear pattern that has emerged from sealed product is that it is bound to go up in value over the years.

Getting Value from Booster Boxes

Sealed product has a proven history of going up in value and booster boxes are the prime example of this. Setting aside a booster box from each set you want to buy is a great way to pay your way forward in Magic. If you’re going to buy two booster boxes when a set comes out and maybe even get a deal then, why not set one aside in your closet and sell it a few years later when it has doubled or more in value? A lot of people even purchase cases though this is too rich for my blood. Why not set aside two booster boxes, even three booster boxes from a case?

Let’s do the math for Innistrad, which is a fairly recent set and follows this trend. These were the preorder prices for Innistrad before it came out September 30th, 2011:

1

If we bought a case:

$519.95 + ~$20 shipping = $539.95 total

$539.95 / 6 boxes = $89.99 per box

If we bought two boxes (closer to an actual causal purchase):

($89.75 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.5

  • This purchase is more expensive per box (~$93.75 per box) but cheaper overall.

It’s now the current day and we loved drafting Innistrad. We want to do a few triple Innistrad flashback drafts of the set. (None of that Dark Ascension nonsense, we’re pure Innistrad only!)

Now that we know how much this would have cost us when preordering, let’s find out how much it would cost us now:

2

Holy moly what a difference!

Case:

$1067 per case (which is the only seller, it could easily jump up in price again.)

+ ~$20 shipping = $1,087 total

$1,087 / 6 boxes = $181.17 per box

Two Boxes:

($169.99 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $347.98

If you could afford the initial purchase up front back in 2011 two booster boxes of Innistrad today was worth 64% of a case if preordered when the set came out! If you could restrain yourself and set aside three booster boxes, you would have recouped 94% of what you originally spent. Not too shabby for basically doing nothing and still cracking three or four booster boxes.

If you bought two booster boxes of Innistrad back in 2011 and then set one aside in a closet until now you could sell it and reclaim 91% of your initial purchase in 2011. The second booster box has practically paid for the first one.

For the more financially minded, this probably seems pretty obvious. “Duh, the set is out of print, of course I can sell boxes at a premium.” What most people don’t realize however is that this is one of the safest ways to make money from Magic. That’s right, even sealed product like booster boxes isn’t off the table when it comes to picking things that gain value. It might take you a while to find a buyer but this is probably the lowest risk call you can make as a speculator that will guarantee you a return. It’s basically the index fund of the Magic world.

Let’s look at Return to Ravnica, which I’m sure most of you are definitely familiar with and see if the trend holds for more recent sets. Here are prices from September 2012:

3

Back in September 2012, you could preorder Return to Ravnica for basically the same cost as Innistrad (though cases seem to be pricier). I note this because sometimes Wizards will increase their pack price MSRP. The last increase was when packs went from $3.25 to $3.99 MSRP when Time Spiral was released in 2006. Thankfully this has not happened in quite a while, though it makes me feel like they may increase their pack price soon.

Anyways back to the math:

Case:

$535.99 per case + ~$20 shipping = $555.99 total

$555.99 / 6 boxes = $92.67 per box

Two Boxes:

($89.94 * 2) + ~$8 shipping = $187.88 ($93.94 per box)

Again, boxes are slightly more expensive when bought individually because sellers will charge more for shipping individual boxes.

These are the current prices today:

4

Hmm, they haven’t gone up in value too much. If we go by the lows:

Case:

$565.00 per case + ~$20 shipping = $585.00 total

$585.00 / 6 boxes = $97.50 per box

Two Boxes:

($92.49 * 2)  + ~$8 shipping = $192.98 ($96.49 per box)

From these calculations for Return to Ravnica then and now we can see:

1. It seems like the price has remained stagnant for Return to Ravnica boxes so far since it only went up $3, unlike Innistrad which doubled.

2. Buying Return to Ravnica in case form today is noticeably more expensive than buying it per box if you were to just buy six boxes. Usually individual boxes are more expensive compared to box price per case. I’m predicting this is because the set is currently in a state of flux, where vendors may have lowered their box prices to get them out the door to make room for future product. We can see this with Cataclysm Games, where if you buy six boxes (($92.95 * 6) + ~$10 shipping = $567.7) versus a case ($569.95 + $10 shipping = $579.95) you’re actually saving $12.25.

3. If we preordered a case and saved three boxes, or preordered two boxes and saved one, we have yet to see a significant return on that investment 1 year, 5 months later. We only gained ~$5 per box if we ordered by the caseload and only ~$2.50 per box if we bought individual boxes. This leads me to believe that there is a lot of Return to Ravnica product out there.

We seem to have conflicting evidence. On the one hand Innistrad has gained significant value but on the other hand Return to Ravnica has not. Am I missing something here? Was Innistrad that much more popular than Return to Ravnica? (Well, I do think that triple Innistrad draft is still a popular format at this point and is more popular than triple Return to Ravnica draft (Pack Rat!)). Was Innistrad printed significantly less than Return to Ravnica? Is that two year birthday for a set that important? Maybe a little of all these reasons is why Return to Ravnica sealed product has stagnated.

One reason I’d venture to guess that Innistrad has climbed up in price so quickly is that it has valuable eternal staples like Liliana, Geist, and Snapcaster. Return to Ravnica currently does not contain as many valuable eternal staples.

My best guess though? Not enough time has passed. Given enough time Return to Ravnica will go up in value. If we use the index funds example, you’re looking just to outperform the market, not become the next penny stock mega winner. (That is, pick up a random $0.20 rare and hope that it spikes to $10+.) There is no doubt in my mind that Return to Ravnica is a very popular set and I am sure in time this will become evident as the price of RtR sealed product goes up. It just looks like hitting that 2nd birthday is the important defining characteristic of the price bump for booster boxes.

Getting Value from Other Casual Products

Another way you can tell that casual players are so important is because Wizards has been releasing new products on a more consistent schedule than ever before in their history. Back in the day, we were lucky to get a core set once every two years (which everyone hated because it only consisted of reprints) and the three block sets of the year (one big set in the fall, and two smaller sets spaced out through winter). This lead to a lot of stagnant Magic. It was easy to get bored. This created cycles of people leaving the game then coming back later once more unpopular sets rotated from Standard.

These days more people are coming back to the game than ever and they’re staying. Combine this with the addition of all the brand new players per year and you have a recipe for success. Let’s go over some of the ways that Wizards has catered to the casual crowd:

Commander Decks (Commander 2011, Commander 2013)

Here were the price of Commander Decks in 2011 about six months after they came out:

5

6

7

Here are what they are today:

8

9

10

(Heavenly Inferno is currently ending on auctions at anywhere from $90 for non-English versions to up to $200 for English versions)

Very obvious upward trend in prices. Even if you bought the unpopular commander decks at the time (that is, the decks without Legacy staples in them) you still made out like a bandit if you waited to sell. They were all selling for about MSRP even six months after their release.

This is why a lot of Magic financiers recommended for Commander 2013 to even buy the non-Mind Seize decks. Even though the rest of the decks didn’t seem to have much to offer Constructed formats, casuals don’t give two craps about constructed potential. They just want to attack you with their angels, demons, and dragons as fast as possible. I see no reason why the current batch of commander decks won’t also follow this pattern as they age.

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks (essentially, all the products that MSRP’ed for $19.99)

Archenemy – June 2010 MSRP $19.99

Today’s prices:

11

Planechase 2009 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

12

Planechase 2012 – MSRP $19.99

 Today’s prices:

13

14

 

Duel Decks

Duel Deck

Current Price

Elves vs. Goblins

$200.00

Jace vs. Chandra

$130.00

Divine vs. Demonic

$170.00

Garruk vs. Liliana

$65.00

Phyrexia vs. The Coalition

$32.00

Elspeth vs. Tezzeret

$40.00

Knights vs. Dragons

$50.00

Ajani vs. Nicol Bolas

$43.00

Venser vs. Koth

$25.00

Izzet vs. Golgari

$25.00

Sorin vs. Tibalt

$19.00

Planechase / Archenemy / Duel Decks Price Analysis

Popular casual products are the single-deck sealed products which are Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy. These products offered more than just decks because Planechase and Archenemy have oversized cards (which also have value if you try to sell them individually) and Commander added brand new cards to the existing card pool. On the other hand, Duel Decks seem to be hit or miss. I think this is because they only consist of reprints and that Wizards seems to have been watering down the most recent ones by not including more powerful spells like the ones found in Divine vs. Demonic or Jace vs. Chandra.

In other words, you shouldn’t pick up extra Duel Decks unless there is something special in them (Demonic Tutor and Counterspell with Jace art are good examples). They take the longest to go up in value and the gains factored in with the time it takes are too long for the profits to matter.

If you’re interested in holding on to extra sealed product for value you want to be looking at picking up Commander, Planechase, and Archenemy (if they do Archenemy again) products. All of these products have evidence showing they go up in value over time.

Casual Players Are Important

Without casual players we would have no one to crack individual packs. Without cracking packs booster boxes would never become valuable. We would also have no one to buy other sealed products that Wizards releases because they look cool or add new aspects to the game in a non-competitive fashion. This would make buying the sealed products Wizards releases a complete waste of money if you’re trying to hold them for value. This clearly isn’t the case. We’re lucky to have such an amazing fanbase behind Magic because without them the game would surely go away. From a numbers perspective, we can see that all it takes to capitalize on Magic’s fanbase is to hold onto a few extra sealed products here or there.

Casual players, you may not realize it but buying these products is itself an investment in the game. Even if you are just buying the products to play with, with no intention of wanting to buy extra to sit on them or make money, my advice to you is to buy what you want as soon as you can afford it. Sealed products are never going to be cheaper than when they first come out, no matter if you’re eyeing something like a booster case or even just considering picking up a duel deck. If you ever have the inclination to help your hobby pay for itself, pick up a few extra sealed products and sit on them. Eventually you can cash them out to cover the costs of buying in even if that is a few years down the road. I believe the evidence that I’ve presented in this article has more than proved that in all cases.

The upcoming Conspiracy set is one of the reasons I’m writing this article. I would definitely be looking to pick up as much Conspiracy as I can and holding whatever I choose not to open. It looks like it is going to be another huge casual hit that will certainly go up in value over time.

Uncategorized

Weekend Update for 9/6/14

By: Jim Marsh

Every week, some cards from Magic the Gathering increase and decease in value based upon a number of factors.

Let’s take a look at some of the cards whose values have changed the most and the factors behind why those changes have occurred.

This week we are going to shake things up a little. In the wake of Khans spoilers and impending rotation there have been a lot more cards losing value than gaining value. This week we will have 5 Big Winners and 10 Big Losers.

5 Big Winners of the Week

5. Leyline of Sanctity (M11)
From $20.48 to $22.80 (11.33%)

Leyline of Sanctity is a sideboard all star. It can protect you from burn and many types of combos. The best part is that you can begin the game with it on the battlefield without even paying mana.

It blanks Thoughtseize, Cabal Therapy, Lava Spike, Grindstone and much more.

It is used in RG Tron, Amulet of Vigor, Ad Nauseam, Bogles and UR Tron sideboards.

Legacy uses it in OmniTell and even Manaless Dredge.

This card will only continue to increase in price until it is reprinted. My best guess for that would be either Modern Masters 2 or the final core set.

4. Maralen of the Mornsong (Morningtide)
From $3.20 to $3.58 (11.88%)

Maralen turns long grindy games of commander into a shorter game of “Who can disrupt the combo?”

The pieces are not of her combo deck are not new or expensive. The entire deck can be put together for under $10 which is part of its charm. She has been losing momentum. She was recently a bulk rare but it looks like she may only make it to $4 to $5 dollars.

You can still buy her for as little as $2.00 and sell her for as much as $2.23.

3. Doubling Cube (Fifth Dawn)
From $6.33 to $7.26 (14.69%)

Doubling Cube has only been printed twice. The first time was in Fifth Dawn and them again in 10th Edition.

It is a fun inclusion in Commander decks that are looking to ramp for huge amounts of mana. It is a very nice inclusion in a Kruphix, God of Horizons deck.

Speaking of the God of Horizons you can buy him for $2.49 and sell him for $2.80. His price tag is just simply too low for a mythic rare god in a set that was so sparsely opened.

It can also work well in conjunction with sources that produce more than one mana at a time like Nykthos.

It is a unique and powerful effect. It has spent a long time bouncing between $5 and $6. It looks like it has broken its ceiling and I could see it finally getting to $10 which will be the new value.

2. Goblin Guide (Zendikar)
From $23.53 to $28.02 (19.08%)

What can be said about Goblin Guide that has not been written dozens of times before? It is one of the most powerful one drops in Modern and Legacy burn and aggro decks. Zoo wants it. Red deck wins wants it.

This price increase is the result of building demand rather than hype. It has been quietly shocking players every turn for years and has more than earned its new price.

There are still opportunities to profit from the sudden increase. You can still buy them for as little as $20.00 and sell them for as much as $22.22.

The foil copies are still only $30.41 which is absurd. These will soon be easily $50 to $60. Grand Prix copies can still be had for $35.00

I would target the premier versions and wait for the price to adjust on them as well.

1. Keranos, God of Storms (Journey into Nyx)
From $8.87 to $16.41 (85.01%)

Unlike Kruphix, Keranos has been taking metagames by storm.

He is going to be played in standard Temur (RUG) and Jeskai (UWR) decks. Free card draw and Lightning Bolts are powerful even if you never make him a creature.

He is already making his way into Modern Splinter Twin, Jeskai Control and Temur Delver decks. A lot of players are toying with them in the sideboard and some are already moving them main deck.

Legacy decks are running him in Jeskai Miracles.

This is to say nothing of commander and even some vintage play.

He is the a mythic rare from a third set that was barely opened before Conspiracy took over the drafting tables.

I had an arbitrage opportunity for you but it dried up in the time it took me to write this article. There are still a few $10 copies out there but I would hurry to get those as well. I think he will see $20 soon.

10 Big Losers of the Week

 

10. Glen Elendra Archmage (Eventide)
From $7.51 to $6.78 (-9.72%)

Glen Elendra Archmage was reprinted in Modern Masters.

It is used in modern Kiki Pod and UB Faeries as repeatable permission on an evasive threat or chump blocker that comes back asking for more.

It has even found its way into a Vintage Sultai (BUG) Survival Madness deck. It is trying to recover from the reprint but it may take a bit longer to gain any appreciable traction. This is a good long term hold but if you are looking for quick profits I would look elsewhere.

9. Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (Dark Ascension)
From $5.40 to $4.78 (-11.48%)

Speaking of good speculation opportunities here is a role player in Modern and Legacy Death and Taxes, Zoo and Hatebears.

She is a powerful aggressive creature and can keep control players a turn behind for as long as she is alive. She has recently $9 and I think she can go even higher. I would gladly trade for as many copies of her as I could find for under $5.

8. Ad Nauseam (Shards of Alara)
From $4.49 to $3.87 (-13.81%)

The other part of the Maralen combo deck and the namesake card for Modern Ad Nauseam and Legacy ANT and TES decks.

It is a draw card unlike any other. It can enable you to draw your entire deck in one fell swoop but requires very strict deck building limitations. It was a bulk rare until earlier this year when everyone collectively took notice of its place in metagame.

It needs to prove itself. The deck can be finicky and difficult to play. I love crazy combo decks that come out of nowhere and utilize cards that seem borderline unplayable but I would like to see this dip a little more before reinvesting in it. Try to see if you can get them at $3.

7. Amulet of Vigor (Worldwake)
From $4.16 to $3.56 (-14.42%)

Like Ad Nauseam the Amulet came of nowhere and created a combo deck that plays cards you have never worried about before. Hive Mind? Ravnica bouncelands?

Unlike Ad Nauseam it does see success from time to time which encourage other players to try out the deck.

A Bloom Titan deck made the semi finals in PTQ Khans of Tarkir in Roswell, Georgia on 8/23/2014.

I expect you will be seeing more Amulets untapping things soon. Six months ago it was over $10 which makes it a comfortable pick up at $3.

6. Rootbound Crag (M10)
From $2.68 to $2.28 (-14.93%)

The M10 “buddy lands” or “check lands” are undervalued. Any casual or commander deck can utilize these with shocklands which are about as low as you will ever see or fetchlands which are becoming cheaper by the hour.

They are usually perfect on any turn except the first.

Modern Temur (RUG) Tempo decks have even started using a copy main deck.

The M11 copies can be purchased for as little as $0.76 and sold for as much as $0.81.

The M13 copies can be bought for $1.00 and sold for $1.01. These margins are not meant to incentivize you to try to pinch pennies on your route to profit but to show that they are actively being bought and sold at the same price. This means they are a minimal risk and easy to liquidate. Any casual player would love to have more copies of these dual lands and any store will probably give you back your money.

They are as safe as you can get in modern real estate investments.

5. Choice of Damnations (Saviors of Kamigawa)
From $4.00 to $3.40 (-15.00%)

Choice of Damnation is only ever played in the most cruel control casual or commander decks.

There are ways to maximize the value of the card like It That Betrays or Exquisite Blood.

It can have a dramatic effect but even if you do run it you will not want many copies.

I expect that this will continue to decline in value. Wizards keeps printing more mana sinks and demons that create board presence while antagonizing your opponents. This may make for a hair raising moment or two but it is not worth building your deck around.

4. Mirrorweave (Shadowmoor)
From $2.34 to $1.95 (-16.67%)

This johnny card is another one near and dear to my heart. I think the last time I thought about it was when Biovisionary was printed.

It is a cute trick but much too situational. There will always be johnnies looking out for the next combo but I would not want to hold onto more than a couple of copies at the most.

You can still buy them for as little as $1.75 and sell them for $1.91.

3. Door of Destinies (Morningtide)
From $4.53 to $3.77 (-16.78%)

Door of Destinies has lots of casual appeal. It is colorless and adapts to the tribe of your choice. Unfortunately all of the M14 copies are getting ready to rotate and so players that have been holding onto copies waiting for slivers or minotaur tribe to become a thing are going to be unloading them.

This has led to a slight price disparity. You can buy them for $1.25 and sell them for $1.82.

It will never be a bulk rare bue to casual appeal but I think it will go down to $2 after rotation.

2. Sword of Feast and Famine (Mirrodin Beseiged)
From $22.87 to $17.99 (-21.34%)

Sword of Feast and Famine has been reprinted in the Modern Event Deck and so new copies have been entering the market place.

This supply shock has depressed the price. I think that this creates an excellent opportunity to purchase some cheap copies. It is used in Modern UB Faeries and can easily find its way into any deck that wants to disrupt hands and keep mana open on their opponents turn.

Legacy uses it for Jeskai Delver, Esper Stoneblade and even Bant Delver.

It is a popular inclusion in cubes and commander decks.

You can even buy them for $12.00 and sell them for $12.40 but I would hold onto them. It is only a matter of time before it gets back to $25 to $30.

1. Onslaught Fetchlands
From an average of $59.22 to $45.40 (-23.00%)

You knew that this was coming. I have updated this section more than any other throughout the week.

Let us take a moment and see how the individual fetches have been affected so far.

Bloodstained Mire (Onslaught)
From $40.59 to $33.71 (-16.95%)

It is currently used in Legacy ANT, Imperial Painter and Burn decks.

Polluted Delta (Onslaught)
From $88.64 to $70.31 (-20.68%)

It is used in Shardless Sultai, Sultai Delver, Temur Delver, 4 Color Delver and Esper Stoneblade.

Windswept Heath (Onslaught)
From $42.99 to $33.74 (-21.51%)

It is used in Legacy Elves, Maverick, Zoo and Nic Fit.

Wooded Foothills (Onslaught)
From $46.99 to $33.99 (-27.67%)

It is used in Legacy Elves, Temur Delver, Imperial Painter, Nic Fit and Zoo.

Flooded Strand (Onslaught)
From $76.91 to $55.24 (-28.18%)

It is in Legacy Jeskai Miracles, Temur Delver, OmniTell and Esper Stoneblade.

The reprinting of the ally instead of the enemy fetchlands opens up several interesting questions. You can and should read Travis’ article about it in depth here but I will add a few thoughts.

The ally fetchlands only appeal to one wedge each. The enemy fetchlands would have each had two fetchlands that they could use to fix their mana. This could Wizards’ attempt to make sure that the right wedge gets its own mana fixing but who is not first picking a fetchland 90% of the time regardless of what they are playing?

The Zendikar fetchlands stand to lose quite a bit from their modern monopoly.

Each fetchland can find seven of the ten shocklands. There is no reason to fixate on any one fetchland even if you are running a two color deck. The number of lands that can find your Steam Vents has now gone from three to seven and you will be able to purchase a play set for what a single Scalding Tarn costs. There is no way that the current price can hold.

If you are holding onto any fetchlands from either cycle that you are not actively playing with I would dump them as soon as you can.You will be able to purchase them back and them some in a few months. Take a look at what the prices of shocklands or Thoughtseize have done to get a glimpse.

There were several arbitrage opportunities for the Onslaught copies but those dried up before I could get this out to you. That is how quick and dramatic this has been.

I should also caution that this goes for the normal copies only. Old border foils tend to hold their value better especially when the new artwork is not as nice as the original. I do not know anyone who thought that what Flooded Strand really needed was a dragon carcass taking most of the focus.

Standard should be pretty dynamic over the next few months. Anyone who wants to play a wedge will have access to an ally fetchland, two enemy painlands, fetchland, three scrylands and Mana Confluence. You will be able to make your mana do pretty much whatever you want with various tradeoffs between each one.

It will be exciting.

Casual Fridays

Value of a Symbol

1 Comment

By: Cliff Daigle

I have one all-foil Commander deck. It’s tribal Vampires, with Garza Zol, Plague Queen at its head. I didn’t plan to foil it out at first, it just sort of happened that almost all the creatures were foil and I kept finding good prices and trades for the lands and accessories. Eventually, I was 80% foil and took the plunge, swapping out things that could never be foil (Oh, how I miss having Shauku, Endbringer!) and trading for foil filterlands, scrylands, etc.

One thing I didn’t have until recently was a foil Reflecting Pool, because there was only one foil version from Shadowmoor. It has been super-pricey due to a printing error: all of the foils have a Plains watermark, increasing the collectibility. When Conspiracy came out, I knew this would be my chance to get a foil Pool at a reasonable price. 

Imagine my surprise, though, when I see that there’s a significant gap between the two foils, with the same text, art, and frame! There are indeed some people who feel strongly that they have to have the original (in this case, the first available foil, as the Tempest version has no foil) and are willing to pay a high price to have that. Wrong watermark or not, that’s a big jump in price due to collectors.

In honor of them, I’d like to share with you a few examples of how much value being ‘original pack foil’ can add. My goal here is just the cards that have an expansion symbol of difference, and I encourage you to add your own to this list in the comments. I’ve looked for them, but I am not perfect.

Akroma, Angel of Wrath – $20 for Timeshifted foil, $30 for Legions foil

Just $10 to get rid of the purple expansion symbol seems worth it. The Timeshifted sheet causes all sorts of collector headaches!

Eternal Witness – $25 for Fifth Dawn foil, $11 for Modern Masters foil

One of the most busted cards in Commander, the foil prices are surprising. There’s an FNM version with similar art by Terese Nielsen, but the easily-recurred way to reuse anything has massive casual appeal.

Elspeth, Knight-Errant: $89 for Shards of Alara foil, $65 for Modern Masters foil

Shards block foils have additional price pressure on them, thanks to the all-foil packs Wizards printed at the end of the block. This higher number of foils is mainly pushing prices on commons and uncommons down, and not that many people were willing to drop $15 on a single booster.

I once did a draft with these though, and it was a lot of fun to have all foils!

Blood Moon – $64 for 9th edition foil, $55 for 8th edition, $45 for Modern Masters

How I wish we had some hard sales numbers on the different sets. It’s entirely possible that there are a lot more MM foils out there, because 8th and 9th were close to the dark days of Magic. This was a surprise find, though, I thought these would be more expensive, considering how good they are in Eternal formats, and how often Legacy and Vintage like to foil out their decks.

Nicol Bolas, Planeswalker – $27 for Conflux foil, $16 for M14 foil

Another card that had extras due to the foil Shards packs, there’s also a Duel Deck foil with very different art to be had for the same price as a nonfoil.

Progenitus – $39 for Conflux foil, $28 for Modern Masters foil

The FTV foil is frankly unappealing next to the original, which had great tricks with clouds to make it clear just how huge The Soul Of The World is. If you have the extra $11 for the original, go for it.

Glen Elendra Archmage – $65 for Eventide foil, $27 for Modern Masters foil

A gap of a few dollars doesn’t surprise me too much, but this being more than double is really surprising. Looking at the price history for the Eventide foil, the price went up when Modern Masters was around. To be fair, that summer, lots of things went up as the hype to join the format was at its peak. Things have stabilized since.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth – $53 for Planar Chaos, $19 for M15 or FTV

The FTV is the same art but it is also the same vertically shiny foiling process that turns some people off. If you wanted to skip that, I’d respect your choice. This was the only foil available for some time, which may be why the price is still so much more.

Woodfall Primus – $34 for Shadowmoor foil, $18 for Modern Masters foil

For a long while, this was a strong option for Reanimator decks, blasting lands and setting the other person back significantly. And perhaps to do it twice! Ashen Rider is just an upgrade on that process, though.

Jace Beleren – $29 for Lorwyn foil, $17 for M10, $19 for M11

Weirdly, this effect is in place for Garruk and Liliana as well, but not Ajani or Chandra. Ajani Goldmane has a Pro Tour foil that might be affecting the foil prices. Garruk and Liliana have Duel Deck promos, as well as Duels of the Planeswalker cards, but these are still showing big steps in price from set to set.

If you’re hardcore about getting the first foil, be my guest, but keep in mind that in a lot of cases, you’re paying a premium for it. That premium is on top of the premium you’re giving to have foils in the first place. I understand completely, though.

Join me next week as we explore some of the spoiled cards and see what you’ll be seeing at kitchen tables for a long time!