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WEEKLY MTGPRICE.COM MOVERS: JAN 4TH/15

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By James Chillcott (@MTGCritic)

Here’s your weekly update on what’s been shifting around in price in the world of paper Magic: The Gathering this week.

5 Winners of the Week

1. Whip of Erebos (Theros, Rare): $4.23 to $5.68 (+34%)

With Whip decks holding down the fort as one of the core pillars of the 2014-2015 winter Standard season, it’s no surprise that this central feature of the recursive mid-range decks has been sliding up. Given that the card was available for as little as $1.25 in late summer 2014, there was some solid profit potential to be realized here if you pushed your chips in on this powerful card ahead of the curve. With relatively little Theros being opened these days, it could perhaps top out at $7-8 in a best case scenario, but I’d be happy to get out now with the inevitable rotation decline on the horizon for early summer.

Format: Standard/EDH

Verdict: Sell

2. Sidisi, Brood Tyrant (khans of Tarkir, Mythic): $4.74 to $5.54 (+17%)

We’re not yet at peak supply yet for Khans of Tarkir staples, as the set is going to be drafted alongside Fate Reforged for a couple of months before being left behind in the wake of Dragons of Tarkir and Modern Masters (2015 Edition). As such, buying in now on this card may not be ideal, since a early summer lull is likely unless the graveyard decks keep putting up top table performances. That being said, I love the card in both foil and non-foil for the long term as it’s a great casual/EDH card with a unique effect and a palatable casting cost. I’ve been picking up quite a few copies in the $3 range along the way, looking to double up within the year on half the stock and hold the rest long term.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Hold

3. Shivan Reef (M15, Rare): $7.23 to $7.82 (+8%)

If Standard has proven to have a color combination of near infinite variation this fall and winter, it must be red, white and blue. Between the token, tempo and Jeskai Ascendancy combo variants, this oft-reprinted pain land has been in high demand and is on track to carry on the fine tradition of blue/red dual lands leading the pack on price. If you picked up copies last summer in the $3-4 range, now is a fine time to be trading out or selling off, as they are unlikely to move much higher before rotation.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell

4. Emrakul, The Aeons Torn (Rise of the Eldrazi, Mythic): $52.61 to $56.84 (+8%)

Don’t be fooled by the short-term variability. As a confirmed reprint for Modern Masters (2015 Edition), Emrakul should have nowhere to go but down. You’d be wise to exit on any copies you’re holding while you can.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell

5. Lilianna Vess (M15, Mythic): $7.12 to $7.69 (+8%)

The lesser Lilianna is seeing occasional play out of Abzan mid-range decks as a 1-2 of aimed at generating additional card advantadge in the grindy world of mid-range deck on deck violence. She could top $8, but if you got in last summer around $4, or had older copies sitting around, go ahead and get out now while the getting is good since she’s unlikely to increase her presence in the metagame any further before rotating out again next fall and her multiple printings and midling power level make her a poor long term target.

Format(s): Standard/Casual/EDH

Verdict: Sell

5 Top Losers of the Week

1. Coalition Relic (Future Sight, Rare): 6.19 to 4.99 (-19%)

Now normally Future Sight rares are a great place to go looking for cards that could explode in price, but the presence of Chromatic Lantern in the EDH scene and high chance of a further reprint of this lesser card put non-foil copies of Relic far down the list of interesting pickups. The recent downswing doesn’t seem to have a definite source, but I’d stay away just the same.

Format(s): EDH/Casual

Verdict: Hold

2. Zurgo Helmsmasher (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic): $1.19 to $1.04 (-13%)

While his fellow Khan Narset is looking pretty tasty right about now, Zurgo isn’t getting enough love from any format to even consider jumping in. Just accept that he’s going to be hanging out in bulk bins and move on.

Format(s): Um, none.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

3. Omniscience (M13, Mythic): $10.75 to $9.50 (-12%)

This card on the other hand is chock full of broken potential and is really just waiting on a Top 8 showing or two to shift into high gear. It also needs to not see a reprint any time soon, but that’s looking unlikely given that notable reprints are largely about keeping Modern affordable or filling gaps in Standard at present and this card fills neither role. Because it’s already hovering around $10, it’s the kind of card I’m not into hunting until I see it do something drastic on camera, but be ready to pull the trigger fast if that ever happens.

Format(s): Modern/Legacy/EDH

Verdict: Hold

4. Sarkhan, The Dragonspeaker (Khans of Tarkir, Mythic) $16.59 to $15.17 (-9%)

If you’ve been holding copies of Sarkhan since the September 2014 pre-order period, you’ve already gone on quite the ride, with copies peaking in the mid $30’s before steadily declining to half that level due to softening Standard play and literal tons of product being opened. That being said, I’ve been starting to acquire copies under $13 where I can since I fully expect him to have a 2nd coming either due to dragon specific cards this spring or general scarcity next fall. It’s not a spec I plan to go really deep on, but I’ve got a few sets waiting for the bounce.

Verdict: Buy/Trade

5. Fulminator Mage (Shadowmoor, Rare) $41.12 to $38.86 (-5%)

Here’s another card waiting for an excuse to climb a bit more, likely in the form of the banning of treasure cruise and the general rebounding of the value of Jund strategies in Modern. This kind of land destruction isn’t something WOTC seems eager to reprint, but he could still show up in MM2 this summer and wreck all the lovely gains he’s made over the last few years up from as low as $6 in early 2013. If you don’t need your extras, leave some potential and risk on the table and reap the rewards of a sweet spec.

Verdict: Sell/Trade

Quick Hits:

  • January 19th, 2015 is the next Banned & Restricted list announcement and banning of any or all of the following could make big waves and open up new specs: Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Jeskai Ascendancy, Birthing Pod. Getting rid of all of the above in Modern opens up the format a ton, and it’s possible Cruise gets the axe as far back as Legacy. I don’t want to be caught holding many copies of that card in foil, so I’ve been selling out, but the rest I’ve decided to risk. Make your call and get ready for the fallout.
  • Likely MM2 reprints aren’t falling nearly as fast as they should be and I think too many people are underestimating the print run this time around. Get out while you can…these aren’t cards you want to be holding come June.

James Chillcott is the CEO of ShelfLife.net, The Future of Collecting, Senior Partner at Advoca, a designer, adventurer, toy fanatic and an avid Magic player and collector since 1994.

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Casual Fridays

Resolutions

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By: Cliff Daigle

Welcome to the new year! This year, we’re getting a new Modern Masters, the death of Core Sets, and a faster, more frequent rotation out of Standard. It promises to be a heck of a year, and so I’ve made a few promises to myself. Perhaps some of them will resonate with you.

#1: Play more Magic

I know it seems like a simplistic goal, considering how much I love this game, but due to moving and babies and lots of other little things, I didn’t play nearly as much Magic as I wanted in 2014. I’d like to attend a couple of big events and get to FNM at least once a month, and attend my first Prerelease since Gatecrash!

#2: Don’t cash out this year

At least once in 2012, 2013, and 2014 I sold big chunks of cards for big real-life expenses. Car repairs, moving money, and to buy a new Tempurpedic bed. (I cannot recommend this bed strongly enough!) Mostly, that came out of my EDH decks, as I’ve downsized to six Commander decks, from my maximum of 15 a few years ago.

I’ve never put a lot of capital into my collection, but taking value out this way, several times in a row, has really lowered the value of the things I have for trade. I don’t regret the loss, as I got what I needed when I needed it, but I would like to spend some time increasing the value without taking any out.

#3: Reorganize binders

Right now, I have four binders of varying sizes: I have my main trade binder, a second one with all my signed cards and speculative cards, a third which contains only cards I’ve taken out of Commander decks, and a fourth that is a Conspiracy foil set-in-progress.

I will trade out of the second and third, but only when there’s something I really want. The problem is that I’ve taken so much out of the first binder, so I often end up showing these other two. I need to go through and classify things better.

#4: Introduce a new player

This is a goal all of us should have. Introduce someone to Magic. It can be in any format, any method. Go slow, and remember that this is a very complex game. Magic’s player base has grown an incredible amount these few years, and if you get the chance, you should bring someone new into the fold.

It also counts if you bring someone back into the game. Remember, Magic used to be big enough that in 1997, the World Championships were televised! Lots of people used to play, and gave it up. Perhaps you’ll get someone back into the game that has some unsorted Alpha laying around, and you’ll help them get a lot of value!

#5: Watch more Magic

I love watching Twitch’s stream, be it the official Magic channel or SCGLive or anything live. I especially love coverage of high-level drafting, but somehow, I’m addicted to watching streams or recordings. The archives of video coverage are enough to get me lost for hours and hours, unless it’s hours and hours of Whip of Erebos mirror matches. Ugh.

Skipping shuffling/sideboarding time is the best argument for watching archives and not the live stream. But I’ll watch anyway!

#6: Continue not playing MTGO

I kicked the habit several years ago and I’m not going to get drawn back in until the program is worth my time. Is it a condemnation of MTGO or praise of SCGLive that I’d so much rather watch the stream than play online?

#7: Get that foil foreign Akroma, and WB Scrubland & Badlands

My Kaalia of the Vast Commander deck has a lot of foreign foil Angels. I’ve got foil Japanese Avacyn, foil French Angel of Despair, foil Italian Kokusho, the Evening Star, and so on. There’s a foil German Akroma, Angel of Wrath that I’ve had my eye on for a while and I really want it! So I’m resolving to buy it this year. Or just upgrade my Portuguese into a foil Portuguese.

On a similar note, I traded for a white-bordered German Plateau for the same deck, and now I need a Badlands and a Scrubland to match. Sure, this is a lofty goal, needing such a specific edition when I already have duals, but everyone needs a goal to aspire to!

#8: Use eBay more

I have had excellent luck in the past, buying single on eBay and then trading them for full retail value, when I picked the card up for significantly less. In this way, I turned one spare Plateau into a Verdant Catacombs and a pair of Cavern of Souls. Buying cards that are expressly for your trade binder is an excellent way to infuse value into your binder, as long as you are upfront about the premium for trading Legacy cards to get Standard cards.

Put another way: I buy a Vindicate on eBay for $12 + $2 shipping. I would feel comfortable asking for a pair of Bloodstained Mire and a Siege Rhino for it. Thus I’ve added $27 in value to my binder for about half that in cash. Winner!

And oh goodness…Vindicate in French is ‘Justification’…I might have a new resolution!