Monthly Archives: September 2018

Casual Fridays

Golden Rarity

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Last week was the mythics (I just bought 8 more Dream Eater, I’m not all-in but it’s a cheap spec) and now it’s time to dive into the rares.

Assassin’s Trophy ($25): It’s a good card, a good answer, and I have to say I’m glad that Modern now has several strong reasons to include some basics: Path to Exile, Ghost Quarter, Field of Ruin, and now this. Yes, it’s good. It’s super-versatile. It’s good enough for Standard but the drawback is very real in that format.

I don’t think it’s got legs in Commander, either. For one more mana, you’ve got Maelstrom Pulse with zero drawbacks and the potential to kill a token horde.

Sorcery vs instant, yeah, but EDH has a lot of answers that don’t come with big drawbacks.

I do think $25 is about right for this for now, I find it unlikely that it’s going to be a more expensive card.

Beast Whisperer ($1 regular/$8 foil): I can easily see this being a $10 foil, but that margin is so close that I’m not moving in yet. I will tell you that when this drops (and it will) I’m going to be gauging this closely. We have several variations of this effect for Modern and for Commander, but none this cheap as a creature and definitely none as an Elf. It’ll be a bulk rare in nonfoil, so be patient.

Chromatic Lantern ($5/$10): In a couple of weeks, it’ll be even cheaper. Get what you need for Commander and maybe a couple extra. It’s not going to dip too much further–I’d imagine that $3 is about the floor on here. This is the third foil printing (counting the super-sweet Invention) and so I’m not going to be hellbent on the foils.

Citywide Bust ($1/$4): This is cheap enough that I’d like to get a few in anticipation of a good UW control deck showing up in the next two years, as that’s how long Guilds of Ravnica will be in Standard. We have Cleansing Nova for a while, but this strikes be as a fantastic answer to the Green Stompy decks that will be running around–and one that Boros decks will mostly avoid being hit by. The great part about when this is four for $1 is that when it bumps to $4 and buylists for $2, you’ll get a lovely chunk of store credit.

Ionize ($2.50/$9): One thing I’ve learned over the years: don’t count out the value of incremental, free effects. Vapor Snag was brutally efficient in its day. Somehow, this price is higher than I thought it would be, meaning that more people are buying it than anticipated. Is this the replacement for Disallow’s rotation? We’re getting counter/surveil 1 in its place, but getting that damage in is real.

Knight of Autumn ($6/$25): Abrade kept all sorts of artifact strategies in check the whole time, much like Dromoka’s Command did for a range of plans. The Knight will fill a similar role, being good enough to maindeck in Standard, and being exactly what’s needed at the time. I think this nonfoil price is spot on, but the foil needs to fall some before I’m in.

Mission Briefing ($8/$36): I think this card is totally a player in Standard, but it’s pretty lame in the other formats. Snapcaster Mage being able to attack or block makes it tremendously better. It’s the difference between Regrowth and Eternal Witness, or Naturalize/Reclamation Sage. Having a body attached to an effect is just really good. Plus, the Mage is easier to cast than the Briefing. This will see play, but not enough to warrant this price. It’s already fallen from the initial $15 it was offered at.

Omnispell Adept (75¢/$7): This might as well have “COMMANDER GOLD” tattooed on its head. Thank goodness this is five mana, but it’s one of those ‘kill it before it wins the game’ cards. I will be targeting these foils when they fall back to the $3-$5 range.

Risk Factor ($3/$7.50): Folks, this card is bad. It is a bad card. This should be the bulkiest of rares. I’ll link you what Bill Stark wrote about Browbeat and giving the opponent choices. I’ve played Browbeat in assorted burn decks and it seems like it should be good but it isn’t. It just isn’t. Don’t play this card, and don’t let your friends play it either. It’s worse than Browbeat, and that’s barely fifty cents for being a rare 12 years ago.

Ritual of Soot ($1.50/$6): This is a fantastic sideboard card in Standard, and will never make you any money. Stay away.

Swiftblade Vindicator ($2/$5): So many things are good with this card. Mentor, combat tricks, Aurelia, etc. Thankfully, it’s not good enough for Modern Humans, but it’s going to be a big game in Boros for the next two years. I think this is a buy right now if you’re going to play the deck, because it’s going to do well at first, climbing to maybe $5 before settling back down for about a buck. Helpfully, you’ll never play just one or two of these; it’s the full four or none at all.

Six years to go up $6? Nope, we can do better with our money.

The Shocklands ($6-$10, foils about 3x the prices): These aren’t going to very far up or down. There’s a whole lot of these out there, as the third printing of the big fall set PLUS the Expedition versions floating around. These are the go-to lands in Modern, a very reasonable alternative to triple-digit dual land prices in Commander, and the cycle is good enough even for powered Cubes. Not much else to say, but I’ll add that I would not attempt to stock up on these when we move on to the next set. We’ve got the double whammy of people who already have a bunch of them from other sets and the extra inventory that exists in stores. One color pair would have to be backbreakingly overpowered if all that inventory was to be drained and raise a shockland’s price.

 

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP (next up: Oakland in January!) and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Brainstorm Brewery

Brainstorm Brewery #306 Guilds of Ravnica Set Review

Corbin’s (@CHosler88), DJ (@Rose0fThorns), and Jason (@jasonEalt) bring in the big guns, Jacob Van Lunen (@JVLTMS) to help with the Guilds of Ravnica Set review.

Make sure to check us out on Youtube for hidden easter eggs and facial reactions  https://www.youtube.com/user/BrainstormBrewery

Need to contact us? Hit up BrainstormBrew@gmail.com

 

Jason Alt, Unlocked ProTrader

Guilds of Ravnica Prerelease Weekend Pickup Guide.

3 Comments

Readers!

Lots of stuff is going to go down in price – it has to. The current prices are predicated a lot on guessing and the stuff that’s getting reprinted is going to really tank, there’s no way Assassin’s Trophy can maintain $63 or whatever it’s at right now ($25 Market price, which seems OK for now) and bulk rares are pre-selling for $2 because of course they are.

I haven’t done this before, but given the lack of EDHREC data and my total lack of enthusiasm for any of these commanders as build-arounds with the exception of like, Lazav, whose picks I already talked about, I have to do something worthwhile this week, so why not a guide for the prerelease weekend? If you go to the LGS, and you should, it’s an opportunity to grab the new cards before anyone else has them. It’s also a chance to think about which bulk rares are going to be a dime soon so you can try to get something out of them. An ideal scenario? Trading bulk rares out at $2 toward some future EDH staples. If you got rid of Aethersquall Ancient at $2 and picked up Panharmonicon at $2 on prerelease weekend, you look like a genius today.

Today Ancient is a bulk rare worth a thin dime and Panharmonicon is at $3 and climbing.

How can we try and set up trades like that? Thinking about what’s going where and going into the weekend forewarned and therefore forearmed. I mean forearmed in the sense that you’re armed with knowledge ahead of time, not in these sense that you, you know, have forearms. You don’t need forearms to make good trades, that’s ridiculous and ableist. You don’t need forearms to be forearmed. OK, I’m done. Let’s look at cards.

Inspiration

Last night we did the Brainstorm Brewery set review and if you read my articles but don’t listen to the free podcast where Corbin Hosler and Douglas Johnson and I give you free finance advice every week, that’s an option and you should take advantage of it for free. You clearly value my opinion.

Anyway, we always spend like 20 minutes talking about a $25 planeswalker that sucks and is only expensive because Jace the Mind Sculptor fooled everyone and we haven’t forgotten it all these years later. Instead of that noise, we decided to sort TCG Player by best selling rather than most expensive and it was a much better experience. Looking at best selling cards before the prerelease can help you predict what will get played in Standard and what will likely stay a bulk rare. After that experience, here are a few things I gathered based entirely on that metric alone.

Boros is Popular

The top cards are all Boros cards. It has no implications for EDH whatsoever – Tajic and Aurelia are complete trash as commanders and the only real assets they get are Deafening Clarion, Response//Resurgence and Boros Locket, a card I fully expect will see play. Foil Lockets are like $0.50 right now and I think any that see play could end up a buck or two, but I don’t know how juicy a target that is. I don’t like any of the other 9 lockets for EDH, but Boros could get there considering Boros decks play cards like Dreamstone Hedron which is way more awkward. Boros is going to run roughshod over Standard, though, so I expect those cards to be popular the first few weeks. I think, ironically, it may be Chainwhirler, a card that will be excellent in Boros decks, that could nip the deck in the bud before it’s a thing. Still, Boros staples will go out 4 at a time, are very cheap and will be highly sought.

Ferocidon last year demonstrated that $2 becomes $6 quickly if the deck takes off.

What I like from Boros – Tajic around $3, Vindicator around $1.50, Warboss around $3, but get out quickly.

For EDH, I like Response//Resurgence long-term and that’s about it. Maybe foil Cluestone. I don’t really like much else from Boros. I think the deck is likely to be a thing in Standard early since aggro sorts itself out first so I might try and pick up stuff like Tajic to flip in a week or two, but for the less nimble, see what EDH players like and trade straight across for stuff that won’t hold value as much. Don’t be afraid to trade stuff like Deafening Clarion for EDH cards from sets about to rotate now at their floor.

Lantern could hit $2-$3

This card tends to shrug off reprints and while this will give us way more copies than normal, this is likely a $7-$9 card in as little as a year and you’re going to feel like such a chump if you don’t pick up every single loose copy at your LGS. I think a 1-2 punch of reprint followed by another reprint is possible and they’ve done it in the past but it seems rather unlikely here. I think we can expect a year of growth and if these hit like $2, scoop em all. I would trade a $3 card that will be $0.75 in a month for a $3 lantern that will be $5 in 6 months. Just grab these.

Knight of Autumn may be the best card in the set

And Knight certainly goes up from like $4. It’s a $30 foil right now but it likely goes way down at peak supply. I don’t know how much I care about foils, but this card is a multi-format allstar. If it’s still $4 on Friday night, gobble as many copies as you can. Almost any pile worth $4 you trade toward a Knight of Autumn will look like a joke in 3 months when Knight is $10 and we all wonder how we missed it.

Mission Briefing is way overrated

I’m reminded of Pain Seer here. Remember how Pain Seer was the next Dark Confidant in Standard? This is the next Snapcaster Mage. Exceeeeept not. I’m getting out of every copy of these at $8-$10 immediately and trading for stacks of relevant cards. This is a trap, get out while you can.

Shocks are not cheap enough yet

I’m avoiding these. They are a great deal cheaper than they were a month ago but we haven’t come close to peak supply. I say out any you crack at full value and then buy back in for cash later.

Take a Crazy Risk

I don’t have any reason for thinking I’ll be glad later that I picked up Dream Eater at $3 but I’m going to do it. Remember, in 3 years when Dream Eater is sitting in my box of shame and some EDH precon makes a card that turns Dream Eater into a $15 card overnight and I can pay for a year of car insurance with a busted spec, I’ll repeat the mantra “there are no misses, only longer term specs.” I have been so analytical in my pickups lately that I forgot what it was like to gamble, and if I’m picking up Dream Eater with money I got buylisting a million Lorwyn block tokens or something silly like that, I’m playing with the house’s money and every hit is pure gravy.

Rares are too Cheap

With one exception, rares are too cheap. The mythics in the set are not super likely to impact Standard as much as the rares with few exceptions and that means there are a bunch of $6 mythics that shouldn’t be and a bunch of $1 rares that shouldn’t be. I think it will shake out differently. I think the following mythics go down.

Arclight Phoenix

Aurelia

Chance for Glory

Divine Visitation (but this card is nutty in EDH)

Doom Whisperer (but I bet this is the most expensive mythic)

Dream Eater

Lazav

March of the Multitudes

Mnemonic Betrayal

Nullhide Ferox

Ral(s)

Underrealm Lich

Vraska(s)

Accordingly, I think the following rares go up to pick up some slack

Chromatic Lantern

Citywide Bust

Deafening Clarion

Guildmage’s Forum (?)

Ionize

Legion Warboss

Quasiduplicate

Response//Resurgence

Thief of Sanity (?)

Venerated Loxodon

A lot of those are iffy and rely on a deck coming along to use them, but I would look to get out of inflated mythics, especially marquee stuff like the Planeswalkers as soon as you open it.

One major caveat is that there are 5 shocklands that will be soaking up a ton of value, and with MODO redemption being less of a factor to enforce box MSRP and with a glut of cheap boxes on Amazon, we could see a lot of good, $1 rares. It could take years for even cards with a lot of EDH demand on top of Standard playability to exceed $5. I’m not sure whether that will happen, but let’s be ready.

Here are a few EDH cards I like as a player and whether or not I like the price.

Affectionate Indrik, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

At under $1 for foils, this seems like a meme card and meme cards are collectible. It should be easy to get foils of this for cheap and watch them end up like $4 later because, lol, snugglyboi snuggled u over teh gardrayl lolzz >< so kawai!!!!!!!!11 yatta!

Burglar Rat, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

At under $1 for the foils of this as well, I think this is a steal. It’s the best Ravenous Rats variant ever created because it hits them and not you for the exact same stats as Ravenous Rats and for whatever reason, no one is talking about that. Grab these out of draft chaff because discard rats are always a pick until they’re printed 200 times. Chittering Rats are $1 retail and they sell a playset at a time and I get them in bulk for 4 tenths of a cent all day. Chittering Rats is also a $6 foil. It will take years for this to be a $5 foil, if ever, but this is bound to be a bulk foil at first and it shouldn’t be.

Conclave Tribunal, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

This isn’t Fatal Push, but this is a card that will be in draft chaff for free the first week or so and shouldn’t be. It’s a $7 presale foil which means some people have caught on. I think if there is a Selesnya deck, and there better be, convoking is a real factor in the deck and this is a great thing to convoke for. Tapping Emmara to make a dork while you kill a blocker is what Convoke is all about. People won’t know this is a $7 foil when you booster draft the set so get with people after the draft and get these for whatever they think is fair.

Crush Contraband, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

This isn’t as good as Return to Dust but you can do it as an instant and that means people will want to try it out. I don’t hate the single white, either. This is a $1 foil which I think has little downside and lots of potential upside at that price.

Discovery // Dispersal, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

This was the EDHREC preview card so I have had more time to evaluate this card than the rest of the set. It’s not fair to call Discovery a Ponder since it’s 2 mana which is way more than 1 mana, but we also don’t have Ponder. This isn’t really a worse Ponder anyway, it’s a better Forbidden Alchemy that is way better drawn late since it has an excellent late-game mode. This is low downside and it’s getting buzz. Every Surveil card will get looked at because the mechanic is probably too good and probably a mistake.

Divine Visitation, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

I have to imagine this tanks from $8 but this is a nutso EDH card and basically any token deck runs this. Watch this price like a hawk and when it bottoms out and begins to rebound, be about it.

Emmara, Soul of the Accord, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

I think the Selesnya deck is going to be bad because of Chainwhirler. I also think people are going to try it and/or they may ban the Whirler. If Chainwhirler gets banned, I think this has a lot of upside but in a whirly world, this is really bad unless you get the Loxodon to buff your creatures. There’s no point not just playing a Tajic deck until then.

Guildmages' Forum, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

This may be a way to beat Chainwhirler. You play a bit behind the curve but that lets you let them dump their greedy-ass Red player hand, then you play some buff dudes behind curve interspersed with removal, leave them topdecking and then swarm them. If this finds a home, it’s a $4 card, so watch these at bulk.

Hatchery Spider, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

This is good. Is it too good to be a bulk rare? I don’t know! But I know I like it a lot.

Mausoleum Secrets, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

I think this is a fine EDH tutor but I don’t know if a format that has great tutors needs a fine one. I do know I personally like it in 75% builds and advocated for it accordingly but that’s narrow. This is better earlier in the game than you think.

Omnispell Adept, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

This is as liable to make a bunch of other cards go up in price as are any of the boring commanders in this set.

Thief of Sanity, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

This is a really good card, but I don’t know if there is too much red removal for you to lean into it. It doesn’t block and by the time you slam this, they have a Warboss and a few gobbos attacking for 6. I hope this ends up a card.

Thousand-Year Storm, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

Lol. I don’t know how long the foil stays $30 but this is a card I want to open as my guild rare in the worst way.

Venerated Loxodon, Magic, Guilds of Ravnica

If there is a Selesnya deck, it will be because this card exists. It’s the only way you beat Chainwhirler, imo and it’s currently a bulk rare.

That’s all I think I want people to know. This is a good set so play as many prerelease events as you can. I’ll be back with some data-based action next week. Until then, grab those rising stars. Until next time!

Casual Fridays

Should We Preorder Any Mythics?

The whole set is revealed, and we’ve got some breathing room to think about the new set, instead of trying to cram it all together into that first weekend.

As a result, we can take our time on preorders, and decide if we want in or not. Mostly we won’t, but there’s a couple of cards that could be in line to go up significantly out of the gate.

Let’s get to the cards! This week, all the mythics. Next week, select rares.

Arclight Phoenix ($2.50): No. Not even a little. When you have to do work to get your Phoenix back, and fulfill specific conditions, the card is not good and not worth it. I expect this to be a bulk mythic, because even if you jump through the three-spell hoop, the payoff isn’t too strong and dies again pretty easily.

Aurelia, Exemplar of Justice ($10): This is super tempting, as by herself, she’s a 4/5 trample vigilance for four mana. That’s a pretty crazy rate, and given the abundance of Boros aggression it’s very possible for this card to take over games, just with Swiftblade Vindicator. Plus, she gives her bonus before Mentor triggers, meaning that she can help grow your army for a while. All that being said, she would need to be commonly played and also played a lot for her to go up much from this price. I suspect she will bump up a little at first, and then start to trickle down. Please note the current curve of Resplendent Angel – Aurelia – Lyra Dawnbringer and be amazed when that isn’t a top tier deck with that quality of creature.

Besties!

Chance for Glory ($4.50!): This early price is 100% due to the hopeful brewers out there. If Gideon of the Trials wasn’t rotating, then we could talk, but as it is I can’t imagine this being more expensive and I fully expect it to tank.

I will admit that when foils get down to the $4 range, I’m probably going to stock up, as that’s a fun line of text which doesn’t have an ‘end of turn’ deliberately.

Divine Visitation ($11): There’s no shortage of Commander decks that are frothing at the mouth to add this card. The new tokens have vigilance built in, which I believe is unique and just icing on the ‘Oh, okay, we’re all dead now’ cake. I fully expect this to hold its current price for a while, and if a token deck shows up in Standard it’ll be a $20 card.

I will badly want to buy foils of this for long-term holds but I don’t think there will be many. This would be a $2 rare but as a mythic, I suspect it’ll settle in the $6 range.

Doom Whisperer ($13): Effects where you pay life and get an effect are very strong, and I’m not going to be shocked when this card gets broken in Modern. It’s also huge for the mana cost, big enough to take on Lyra, and the combination is very appealing. Even if the creature is immediately killed, the ability will give some value right away.

Maintaining this price will require being part of a Standard combo or instant success (or on-camera shenanigans) in Modern. It’s at least $20 if that happens, but the more likely event is that it drops below $10 and approaches $5. I have a suspicion that the broken combo will come along sooner, rather than later.

Dream Eater ($3.50): I think this will replace Torrential Gearhulk as a finisher for blue decks. It’s not the same level of value engine, but the combination of flash, a decent body, surveil 4 AND bounce a nonland is too much for the blue control decks to pass up. This is going to go higher at first, as it’ll be widely adopted in Teferi decks, and I think it’ll go as high as $10. I’ve preordered four, and I’m reassured that it’s not an expensive card.

It’s a more balanced Gearhulk.

Lazav, the Multifarious ($8): This is spot on for a legend with a janky ability. I’d expect a lot of Entomb/Buried Alive effects to play very well with him,

March of the Multitudes ($6): Absolutely not. It’s an instant, and that’s good, but Secure the Wastes is better in most situations. It’ll get played in a few Commander games, as doubling your creature count is a winner, but this is so much of a win-more card. It’ll end up as bulk.

Mnemonic Betrayal ($6): Also no. Far too conditional, and while it’s going to make for some fun stories, it just can’t reach an efficient level unless your opponent is a fizzled Storm player. Also bulk.

Nullhide Ferox ($9): I respect Steel-Leaf Paladin into this into Gigantosaurus, but white decks just got the perfect card to answer big green in Citywide Bust. This is huge for four mana, and requires mana plus a kill spell just about immediately, and that’s good. Also good is that you’d likely run the full four if you’re playing with this card, but I don’t see him holding this price. Much more likely is a drop to the $4 range.

Ral, Izzet Viceroy ($13): So yeah, Ral does all you’d want for a control-oriented planeswalker. Draws cards, the plus ability feeds into the minus, and a backbreaking ultimate. I foresee many people trying to build Jeskai decks in Standard around him and Teferi. I think those decks will eventually get there; what I’m not sure about is how many they’ll play and what the market is for him otherwise. Teferi is sick because he gives you a card and the mana to use it right away, where Ral requires setup. Not impossible, though. I think his price will go up a little and settle a little, but $13 is close enough to the long-term price that I’m not pre-ordering him.

He’s got that Travis Allen ‘get me a razor that stops 2 mm above my skin’ look.

Thousand-Year Storm ($5): This is going to be one of those bulk nonfoils/$8 foils that see see occasionally. Super-mega-niche card, and it’s only going to make the durdling Commander decks durdle harder with a 20-minute turn that mercifully ends the game. Please don’t buy this.

Trostani Discordant ($6): This comes with two 2/2 lifelinkers, and that’s good. Pumps your horde of tokens, also good. They doesn’t enable a lot, and so I’m staying away, financially. I’m with you 100% if you’re adding this to your token-themed Commander deck, but this is going to be $1-$2 before long.

Underrealm Lich ($6.50): This is verrrrrrry intriguing. Vraska’s Contempt and Settle the Wreckage are both exile effects, which makes the activated ability lame as hell, but the draw replacement is VERY powerful. They don’t stack up well together, but I think this is going to grow a bit. I’m not sold enough to think that it’ll hit $20, but it’ll see enough play to get to $10. That’s not a big enough jump for me to want to preorder it, though.

Vraska, Golgari Queen ($18): I really want her to be awesome, but I just don’t see it. Her drawing a card is conditional, and while the -3 is great on turn four, it’s pretty terrible as a topdeck turn 8. I think she’ll fall in price some, down to the $10 range, but likely no lower. The bar for Planeswalkers is pretty high right now, given Teferi and Karn.

 

Cliff has been writing for MTGPrice for five years now, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP (next up: Oakland in January!) and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.