Next week, on Tuesday, April 22, Gavin Verhey is going to go on a stream and talk about the unbannings that Wizards has in mind for Commander. That’s going to set off some epic buying and selling, and if you have forgotten, here’s my list for what you can spec on or not spec on. Those picks are based off of my experience as a Commander player, nothing else. 

I think what we’re also going to get is a set of changes for how Commander decks are categorized, and that carries some interesting implications as well. So let’s talk about changes that could be made to the Commander format, deckbuilding, and the Tiers system, in order to maximize the Commander experience.

The problem Wizards faces is that it’s trying to apply a layer of standardization to an intensely personal experience. We all have fun in different ways. Commander is a game where you can have hours of fun and yet not win. I have played two-hour games that went by in a flash of enjoyment and I’ve played 30-minute games that dragged on for what felt like days. 

I don’t play cEDH and I don’t pretend to have an indepth knowledge of the format. It’s a serious format, with an interlocking puzzle of interactions and combos that I couldn’t begin to unpack quickly.

What I can do is estimate what happens to the format next. Let’s go through some scenarios:

Scenario #1: No big changes, aside from unbans.

This is the most likely to happen on the 22nd, since the unbans will be a big deal but they won’t break the game open. Some combination of the stuff that was banned and caused the RC to resign (Dockside, Jeweled Lotus, Mana Crypt) and low-hanging fruit (biorhythm and Coalition Victory are the current front-runners) is likely on the agenda. 

I think Wizards wants these cards unbanned because they are major selling points for any set they appear in. They have been high-value reprints for more than one set, and they have a vested financial interest in making these cards legal again. When the unbans happen, of the fast mana or other things from the list, we’ll see mega-spikes in all of those cards. I don’t think they will all get unbanned at once, but they will eventually be freed from their jail and the prices will go wild. (Disclosure: When this date was first mentioned, I went out and bought a playset of foil borderless Jeweled Lotus, so I’ve got an interest in that one.)

I agree with the concept that unbanning these cards in response to the outcry from some of the worst people online, the ones making threats and making the RC feel unsafe, is a bad idea. It’s also true that Wizards stands to benefit financially from such unbans and the eventual reprints. This leads directly to the second potential part of next week’s announcements. 

Scenario #2: Changes to game-changers (possibly tier rebalance too)

I think there’s going to be some cards added to this list, and some clear statements about how many of each can be on the different tiers. Such a list of cards will never be complete, and many cards are only a problem depending on the cards around them. (Example: Tooth and Nail for Mike and Trike is GG for the table at instant speed, but T/N for Avenger and Hoof on an empty board only kills one person)

This is a useful thing to talk about before a game, and really, that’s the goal of these tiers and this entire process. Commander is godawful when the decks are on uneven power levels. One deck will wipe the floor with the other three. Hopefully that happens fast, but some powerful decks like to durdle and board wipe a few times first, which no one enjoys.

I don’t think there will be a huge gain from being added to the game-changer list, nor a penalty to the card’s price, but we’ll have to see what the eventual announcement says and what the market does.

It’s difficult to work out power level with strangers, so having a bigger list of the most powerful/problematic cards and then being able to say that three of them is level X, six is level Y, and so on, gives people a way to say, quickly and cleanly, how tuned and powerful their deck is. Remember that the core philosophy of this is to make it easy at big events (or, god forbid, tournaments) for strangers to know how well built a deck is. 

I think this is going to happen eventually, I’m not sure if it starts next Tuesday. 

Scenario #3: cEDH is its own format, own banlist, etc.

This is the other shoe that will eventually drop. Competitive EDH is its own format, an outgrowth of Commander, and deserves its own area to shine. Free spells aplenty, maximal interaction and if you give it a moment to combo off, it will. That mentality shouldn’t be asked to share a space with decks based on the Wizard of Oz, or only using art where everyone looks like they are using performance-enhancing drugs. 

I think that long-term, cEDH has to be a separate format. Pauper does it, as an example of a fan format that Wizards helps to curate. When cEDH is its own thing, there will also be more organized tournaments and other events. Eventually, there might even be a set of cards designed and sold just for cEDH enthusiasts. There are a few cards that are expensive and are cEDH staples, but they are just very good cards and should not see much of a bump. 

If cEDH becomes its own format with its own banlist, I think everything that’s banned in regular but allowed in cEDH will have quite a spike, but should settle down eventually, albeit at a higher price than when it started. The demand will jump, but the proportion of players is much smaller and probably won’t be able to keep the price high on their own.

Wizards’ goal is not just to make a great game–it’s to expand the game and make money from the game. Adding the new format will do exactly that. It’ll be necessary and painful, awkward as people seek to bend rules and the politics will make for very awkward tournaments. There will also have to be a reckoning when it comes to proxies, much like local Legacy events that allow for players to have fake cards in their decks. It’s already treated as a separate format by casuals, might as well make it official. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The new set is out and it is a doozy, with a new negative-space showcase for clan cards, a very cool halo foil treatment, and all sorts of odes to out winged overlords, may their scales never stop shining. 

With the buying frenzy now unlocked for everyone, not just presellers on TCGPlayer, let’s take a look at what’s gone down, what’s gone up, and where some of these are going to go from here. 

One thing I want to make clear: EDHREC is not a useful stat this first week, it’s more about enthusiasm than anything else but the cards aren’t always added in time. I like having the EDHREC number, it’s a useful piece of data, but the people building decks there are hardcore, eager to be first. So while I often have EDHREC numbers for something like this, today, that’s not a piece of data that I’m using for assessing where we’re at and where we might be going. 

I’ve also updated prices to Saturday (4/12) morning. 

Mox Jasper Serialized – This has a lot of unique things going for it. I am a big fan of using special art for the serialized cards, instead of just slapping the number on something that looks pretty much the same. The art is done by the Mox Man himself, Dan Frazier, adding to the collectors who would be after this. It also sings to Dragon players, even if the card is only good after your first Dragon is in play. (Changelings are a spicy thing to do though!)

There were some early sales on eBay at $5,000, but it is now available under $3,000. In terms of quantities, ten sold so far, 22 left on the site ranging from $2700 to $6k.There’s a premium available if you’ve gotten it graded, but that’s always been the case. Edgar Markov is available for $2500-$3000 and I would expect this to settle in that range. 

Dragonscale Fetches – Gorgeous in hand, these are still trending downwards as I wrote about last week. That trend won’t last forever, though, more like one to three weeks before the prices start trending upwards. I won’t rehash it all here, but this is the pattern and the added bonus of the other five lands eventually showing up might turn these from personal use to serious spec. 

Halo foils – Even though these are twice as rare as dragonscale lands, they are all trending downwards. Ugin is flying very high indeed as people want the sweet copy for their colorless decks, and well they should. Ugin’s static ability whenever you play a colorless spell (read:artifact or Eldrazi) is ridiculous on just about every board state. We know artifacts are popular, we know people love their colorless tentacle beasts, so Ugin’s price will likely stay high for a while, even as the premium versions drift lower. 

The other Halo foils are trending down, though Elspeth might not go too much lower. Having the Anointed Procession as a built-in ability is powerful as hell, and Magic players do love having redundant copies in their lists. She’s currently at $300, and that’s within the realm of expected, when compared to raised/textured foils from older sets and the fracture foils. 

Dragon’s Eye Foil Lands – Expect these to hit an expensive point later on. I would wait a little longer before buying but these are popular as hell. Let the people who must have them get them, and you can move in later. They are currently riding a wave of interest, but once people have a chance to slow down, and we’re past the folks who instantly need a draft set of these lands, we’re off. They range from $7 to $10 right now for the foils and I’ll be surprised if they end up going below $5 for the foils.

I have to admit, I am very tempted by the nonfoils. There are Cubes and drafters and Commander players who’ll all want this art and once the price bottoms out on nonfoils, might be a great time to sock a bunch away and wait.

There’s only two cards that have gained hard early on, but they have REALLY gained. Cori-Steel Cutter is the first, up to $12, gaining nearly $10! It’s easy to imagine a control deck that wants to cast a draw spell and a removal spell and get a blocker, or just an aggressive deck casting this card, some other cheap spell, now you have a 2/2 trample haste coming in. It’s pretty amazing in multiples too, so people are going wild on this and if you have any copies, I’d be selling. Very few rares stay over $10 unless they are cross-format stars or staples, so whatever this hype is, you want to be feeding it, not holding and hoping. 

The other big gainer so far is Voice of Victory, up to $9 from its early price of $2. I can’t believe how cheap this is at only two mana, and it forces your opponent to react immediately or forever hold their peace. This is something all players want, the sure and certain knowledge that no one is going to mess with their creatures, spells, or plans. It’s got the right cost and aggression to be good in a range of formats, so while I don’t know if it’ll hold this $9 right now, this is something I’m thinking about as a spec down the line. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Welcome to the latest in the ongoing saga to take one set of numbers, spread out over many pages, and create easy-to-understand numbers. I do the work and the calculations To figure out the things we all want most: What am I likely to get when I open a Collector Booster?

My data is all taken from the Collecting Tarkir: Dragonstorm article and from the numbers of cards available in the set. Let’s get into it!

There’s three sets of numbers we need to look at today. This is information that ever since the Lord of the Rings sets, Wizards tries to obfuscate. They don’t want us to know how many of each card is printed, and that’s information we perfectly had in both LTR sets because they gave us the drop rate for those serialized cards. 

Since then, they don’t tell us exact information, just enough to avoid lawsuits. They also move around the information they are required to tell us, to make it difficult, but I’ve got the measure of their current methods, and while they might get more obscure later, right now, we can get lots of information. 

Today, we’re going to focus on the last three cards in a Collector Booster. The other slots have lands, commons and uncommons, and the Commander reprints, and those are much more prevalent than the cards put into these last slots. They are also generally worth less money, and so we don’t need to focus on them. If you really want to know about foil Dragon’s Eye lands (some badass lands, respectable) then you’ll get one about every 13 packs. If you want a specific land, multiply that by five for 65 packs, or just about two and a half boxes.

Our first table is going to address the two special nonfoil slots in a Collector Booster. 

This is relatively straightforward. Nothing is crazy rare, especially because you’re getting two slots. The odds per pack are in bold, because you get a second bite at the apple. Should some of the mythics in a Draconic frame become tournament staples, it’ll be good to know how often they were pulled from packs as people build nonfoil playsets. I especially want to call out the lands, at roughly 1 in 34 packs. These lands have a lot of potential, especially the blue one if control decks get out of hand (or in the mirror!) and we might need to know how many of those were running around. 

Also note that rare clan frame cards with the solid black text box are going to be the pull half the time per slot. Just over 25% of Collector Boosters are going to have two of those, back to back. These Boosters have always been swingy, but barring some awesome rares, those are going to sting pretty badly.

Now, let’s get to the spicy things. The last slot in a Collector Booster is where all the juicy foils can be found. Here’s the complete breakdown. 

The mythics are pretty darn rare, but numbers in the range of 250 are pretty standard by now. We’re used to that, and while it’s not common…it’s not going to be mega-difficult either, for the Draconic, Clan, or Reversible cards. That sort of drop rate tracks with the ‘premium but not top-tier’ level of rarity we’ve been seeing in Standard sets for a while, so that distribution hasn’t been changed much.

There is a change past that, though. The Special Guests for TDM are about a third more likely to show up than they were in Aetherdrift and twice as likely as in Duskmourn Collector Boosters. No one’s going to be complaining about extra fetchlands, though, so while we might get to spec on them I’ll be paying closer attention to the Ultimatums. 

Rarest of all will be the Dragonscale fetches and in a tier beyond that, the Halo Foil Ghostfire cards. We don’t have any Fracture Foils showing up at 1 in 1500 or anything wild like previous sets had. Instead, the Dragonscale fetches are twice as likely to show up in a pack as a Halo Foil Ghostfire Dracogenesis. Each category is 1%, yes, but because there’s five fetches and ten Halo Foil Ghostfire cards, we’ll end up with twice the quantity of Dragonscale lands. (Which is good. I need a set.)

I’m surprised they went away from the Fracture Foil model, considering how successful that treatment has been, but there’s unique art to the Ghostfire cards and that helps. Still, it’s important to know that for every two Fracture Foils of a card, there’s three Halo Foil Ghostfire of a card. (For English language, anyway. Japanese-language Fracture Foils are criminally underrated and overlooked, as I’ve written about and as we’ve covered on MTG Fast Finance)

Finally, let’s talk about the serialized Mox Jasper. Wizards no longer gives us precise information about the drop rate as they did early on, instead relying on the vague “less than 1%” but we can make some estimations. We know roughly how much profit Wizards makes from a Standard set’s Collector Boosters, and we can also surmise that because LOTR was a premium set, there’s more Standard printed. 

From there, it’s math:

Our estimates indicate that the print run for Collector Boosters is something like 4 million packs, or about 167,000 boxes of product. This is based on the print run of the two LOTR sets, the distributor pricing, and the relative profit gained. This is not locked in the way we were in Lord of the Rings, and if I could give you such certainty I would. If Wizards released the right data, I’d update this chart. With this model, it should take around 8,000 Collector Booster packs to open a serialized Mox Jasper. Or your odds are 0.013%, if that number is easier for you to think of.

I’ve also included a breakdown of what those numbers mean for the cards that will be the most widely used, the Dragonscale fetches. At our estimate, there’s 40,000 total, or eight thousand of each land. That means each Dragonscale land will have roughly 16 copies in circulation for each serialized Mox Jasper.

I understand that there will be greater demand for the special fetches, and so the ratio isn’t as important as the play pattern, but useful data remains useful data.  

If you have questions about my methods or the outcomes, please stop by my social media pages, leave a comment, or join the ProTrader Discord for lots more insights. Good luck cracking your packs!

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.