I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander.
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There’s a whole lot going on in the Magic world. We’ve got Final Fantasy previews, we know there’s an Avatar:The Last Airbender Secret Lair in November, and there’s a whole lot of Spider-Man product on the horizon for this summer. That’s before you get to all the fun of Aetherdrift being live and Tarkir: Dragonstorm on deck for April.
With all that in mind, though, I want to take a beat and think about what’s happening with some recent Secret Lairs, because there’s an emerging pattern that has me wondering if I should re-examine the buying I’ve been doing, and will be doing. So let’s look at some of the biggest recent sales and see what changes Wizards has made.
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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
It’s really, really easy to get caught up in ‘the next thing’ because of Wizards of the Coast’s obsession with keeping excitement high. Granted, there’s a vested interest in keeping up with what’s coming out and what’s happening, because there’s profit opportunities such as the recent spike in Commander’s banned list. There’s no end of new events, streams, articles, and ways for Wizards to drum up interest in upcoming sets.
However, we can’t lose sight of the here and now, which means Aetherdrift! The set only came out a week ago, and there’s a lot of movement on prices. Not all of it is downwards, either, so let’s get into it and see what opportunities exist right now, and which hint at future ones.
All data is as of Thursday night, 2/20, for the regular frame nonfoil.
Ketramose, the New Dawn (Lowest sale was $15, Highest $75, currently $48) – Ketramose is getting all of the attention from the set, especially for its strength in Modern, where there’s a wide assortment of ways to exile things for benefit. Some of those are aggressive (Phelia) and some are reactive (Force of Negation) but all of them now come with a cantrip once Ketramose is in play. What’s additionally wild is how Path to Exile now comes with a card to draw as well!
Ketramose will start showing up in some lists in the next couple of weeks, and there’s a good chance that we see the card pop back up above $60. People aren’t dipping a toe in with this card, they are going full-on with the complete playset in a deck, and for a mythic, buying four at a time can really impact the supply.
Monument to Endurance (L: $4, H: $15, C: $11) – This is one of the top inclusions from EDHREC, not least because there are two Zombie commanders who want to discard cards, and Varina has also been newly popular. I have a hard time thinking that this price stays high, as it’s just a rare and people are getting one at a time. It takes tremendous demand to keep an in-print rare above $10, and I’m doubtful about this card in the short term.
Radiant Lotus (L: $13, H: $70, C: $16) – We all know that this is a Lotus, and making three mana at a time, but the six mana and the need for sacrifice is a real cost. I’m not surprised that it’s fallen this far, but clearly it’s got farther to fall until the combos are found. I don’t doubt that this card can be broken, but we’ve got to keep in mind that this isn’t fast mana, it’s a boatload of mana after you’ve found a way to get a six-mana rock into play. I don’t think it’ll go below $10, but the premium copies with truly gorgeous art might stay expensive just for the aesthetics.
Oildeep Gearhulk (L: $3, H: $11, C: $5) – What a lot of people are overlooking about this card is that it shares the Vendilion Clique ability of looking at the hand, and then you get to decide if you need to get rid of a card from your opponent’s hand. It’s a tough mana cost, and it’s very dangerous to add this card to Standard when there’s already a Dimir self-bounce deck running around. It’s a mythic, and that helps its price, but this will never be a four-of card and so I expect the price to stabilize between $5 and $10.
The Aetherspark (L: $25, H: $110, C: $34) – It’s a crazy card with an impressive type line, but that novelty was responsible for lots of hype and a too-high price. This really needs to come down under $20, and likely to the $15 range. A regular planeswalker with these abilities (+1: add a counter to a critter, -5: Draw two, -10: Add ten mana) would be pretty middling for what Commander decks what to do. There’s a lot less work that can go into a win condition, and once people realize that, the price will trickle downwards. It might pop up if something turns out to be a fun combo, but if the point of the combo is adding mana, it might not do too much.
Loot, the Pathfinder (L: $1.50, H: $30, C: $3) – I’ve seen people building decks around Loot and Agatha’s Soul Cauldron, a combo that makes my heart sing. ASC is already super pricey because of the Modern combos that it helps to reinforce, but Loot is an accessory, not a focus. Does great things, powerful things, and there’s combos in Standard with Sleep-Cursed Faerie, but we’re going to need to see results before we start buying.
Riptide Gearhulk (L: $5, H: $10, C: $10) – It’s pretty evil that this is legal in Standard alongside Elesh Norn, Mother of Machines. If someone double-triggers this on you, then your third and fourth turns from now are locked in. It’s also a really quick clock, smashing for six or 8 depending on the cantrips in your hand when you attack. Additionally, everything that cares about having two power, like Enduring Innocence, will gladly welcome the card. Ten bucks feels about right, but the rest of the set and the speed of undercutting might lower the price slowly over time.
The Verges (range in prices, mostly $4-$7 now from $10 heights) – I like these to travel back upwards into the $10 or even $15 range before they rotate out of Standard. It’s really, REALLY powerful to have dual lands that come into play untapped, and considering that these are best friends with the Surveil lands from MKM, we’re going to see a lot of Surveil/Verge manabases for all of 2025 and 2026.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
Aetherdrift is on sale today, and let’s be honest, Ketramose is lighting up all sorts of cards. BW Blink is a big deck in Modern right now, and it’s about to get a powerful draw engine. Psychic Frog plus Darkblast and Ketramose is a deadly combo that we’re going to see a lot of as well. It’s $50, and we’re going to see that price go higher this weekend and hopefully it comes down to something reasonable.
It’s not going to be soon, though, because people are buying the card four at a time…and it’s worthwhile to do that. It might come down if the meta shifts, but I expect Ketramose to hit $75 in the next week, and after that, supply should bring that back down. Heaven help us if there’s a Standard deck as well as the Modern implications.
However, from a MTG Finance perspective, the biggest news of the week was Commander-related. We got an explanation of the Commander Brackets system, a list of Game Changer cards, but most importantly, Gavin Verhey saying that sometime in April, there will be some cards unbanned in Commander.
Frankly, there’s already been a lot of buying around this potential news, and all sorts of speculation online about which cards he’s referring to. I’m here to give you the definitive list of what is and isn’t getting unbanned, now that Wizards runs the banned list.
We’re going to put this in tiers, from the zero-chance (F tier) to the ‘absolutely going to happen sometime’ (S tier). For each, I’m going to put down the current cheapest price, and what that price could go to. More premium versions will of course go wild too. I’m presuming that the cards will not get a reprint to go with the unbanning, and if that happens, watch out.
S-Tier: Will Get Unbanned
Jeweled Lotus ($76, but was $40 before the announcement)
Dockside Extortionist ($37, was $12)
Mana Crypt ($80, was $45)
Coalition Victory ($3)
These are the easy picks. The three bannings that triggered the end of the Commander Rules Committee era are all cards that were fine until the RC decided this specific set of fast mana was a problem. Wizards is happy to reprint these cards, mark them as Game Changers, and move on. I don’t think they will all get reprinted immediately, or even at the same time, but eventually yes, they are going to be legal again. Eventually.
I bought four borderless foil Jeweled Lotus when I heard about the announcement, but I should have moved on Dockside. Legit spec targets, but I’ve no idea when it will happen.
A-Tier: I Have Slight Doubts, But Likely Eventually
Biorhythm ($6)
Golos, Tireless Pilgrim ($2)
Iona, Shield of Emeria ($4)
Sylvan Primordial ($2)
Flash ($1.50)
These five cards are powerful and potentially really annoying, but there’s a lot to be said for each of these being totally fine. Golos could become the default ‘five color good stuff’ deck and with the land find it’s possible to recast it almost every turn. Is that more or less annoying than other cards? Iona hoses one color (you should name blue) but the other colors make for a fun political subgame. Primordial is capable of killing three permanents, and finding you forests, but it’s not problematic until you flicker/reanimate/etc and isn’t that every damn card in Commander? Same thing with Flash–puts a card into play, instantly sacrifices it. We’ve got a range of such effects already, and while this is cheaper, it’s got a good chance to see an unbanning and try it at high power levels.
I could defend you buying these, especially at these low prices, but I wouldn’t be in super deep.
B-Tier: Make Your Case, But I Lean No
Braids, Cabal Minion (bulk)
Emrakul, the Aeons Torn ($20)
Hullbreacher ($3)
Trade Secrets ($1)
I think that these all represent cards that are unfun in most settings, and should stay banned. They are also ridiculously powerful, and since we’re legislating in the high power brackets of Commander, I think people will make a case. I definitely would not spec on any of these cards.
C-Tier: Reserved List Conspiracy Brain
Fastbond ($30)
Library of Alexandria ($1,300)
Recurring Nightmare ($60)
Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary ($42)
Yawgmoth’s Bargain ($22)
Hot take: I don’t think these are so much more game-breaking that they can’t be considered for unbanning, but they won’t be unbanned because they are on the Reserved List and therefore Wizards cannot make any money off of the unbanning. It is super easy to imagine Gavin calling up someone at WotC and saying, ‘when’s a good time for us print <name of card> so we can unban it at the same time?’ These are enormously powerful cards, worthy of being banned, but less powerful than some other unbanned cards.
D-Tier: Enormously, Incredibly, Boringly Unfun and 95% Never Unbanned
Erayo, Soratami Ascendant ($6)
Gifts Ungiven (50¢)
Griselbrand ($3)
Leovold, Emissary of Trest ($2)
Limited Resources ($3)
Lutri, the Spellchaser (bulk)
Nadu, Winged Wisdom (50¢)
Panoptic Mirror ($8)
Paradox Engine ($7)
Primeval Titan ($8)
Prophet of Kruphix ($1)
Sundering Titan (bulk)
Sway of the Stars ($3)
Tinker ($1)
Tolarian Academy ($200)
Upheaval (bulk)
A lot of these cards are just repetitive play patterns, over and over again. Are there plenty of Commander decks built the same way? You betcha, it’s the main format for people who love to spin their wheels over and over and yet accomplish nothing. With these cards, it isn’t always about the instant win, no, you should be so lucky as someone demonstrating their Gifts Ungiven for a combo, or the Paradox Engine loop twice and then table is scooping. It’s the non-deterministic Nadu combo for ten minutes, it’s a flipped Erayo from someone who also has four counters in hand, just in case. It’s Prophet basically taking four turns every cycle while you do one. Good riddance to all of these.
F-Tier: Why Are You Even Asking?
Ancestral Recall
Balance
Black Lotus
Chaos Orb
Channel
Falling Star
Karakas
Mox Emerald
Mox Jet
Mox Pearl
Mox Ruby
Mox Sapphire
Shahrazad
Time Vault
Time Walk
Name your reason, these are staying banned. I love the idea of the ‘dexterity’ cards like Orb and Star, but having seen people argue about Orb in Cube drafts, heaven help us at regular Commander games. These aren’t getting unbanned ever, no need to go over prices here.
If you disagree with these tiers, please, let me know in the comments, on social media, or preferably, in the ProTrader Discord! I’m happy to talk about the reasons I ranked them this way.
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
Here we are, with previews coming up, a set releasing next week, and now there’s a Secret Lair Superdrop to contend with. There are eight drops in this go-round, and they go on sale at 9 am PST/12 noon EST On Monday, February 10.
There is a wide variety of art going on here, from the most basic to gorgeous borderless, IP crossovers, and one that verges on copyright infringement. Secret Lairs are most profitable when you focus on the home runs and avoid the ones that do nothing but linger on shelves. Let’s talk about all 8, and do some figuring on what is worth buying.
Secret Lair x Hatsune Miku: Winter Diva
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Giada, Font of Hope
$1-$80
18k as commander (#17 all time) and 30k as card
Youthful Valkyrie
Bulk to $2
21k
Counterspell
Bulk to $500
1,078,000 (not a typo)
Swan Song
$9 to $63
413k
Brago, King Eternal
$2 to $10
8k as commander, 39k as card
Scrying Sheets
$5 to $40
9225 decks
We also have seen that Beloved Princess is the bonus card for this drop, which is very on-theme. It’s got almost no Commander usage, and while it will go for a couple bucks to Miku collectors, it’s not super relevant to whether this drop will sell well.
This drop will sell very well. The Mana Foil Giada is gorgeous, and this should be a worthy contender. Brago is a great theme, but the standout here is the Swan Song. This is a super popular card in regular and CEDH alike, and there has not yet been a special version of the one-mana counter. If this was a regular, non-Miku drop, I would be a fan of the drop just for that reason, as the only foil is the Theros pack foil. There is a previous Secret Lair version from Ornithological Studies, but that was non-foil only.
However, this is the last Miku drop. The first was all gas, the second very popular, and the third was weird. Quickly sold out of English foil, English nonfoil took a little longer but did sell out, and the two Japanese-language versions are still available on the site. Ouch.
I think that the third drop being mediocre planeswalkers plus an increased quantity printed led to the current situation. I fully expect the English versions to sell fast here, and the Swan Song should be the most profitable card of the batch.
Aether Drifters
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Parhelion II
50¢ to $3
31k
Mechtitan Core
Bulk to $3
22k
Reckoner Bankbuster
$1 to $4
27k
Smuggler’s Copter
$1 to $20
47k
Peacewalker Colossus
Bulk to $2
22k
I have to admit I love this concept. It’s a racing set, and this is amazingly replicating the look of a Hot Wheels blister card, down to the price tag as power//toughness and the printed cutout for hanging displays. They can’t actually use the Hot Wheels IP, as that’s Mattel, one of Hasbro’s main rivals. The Vehicles themselves are extremely mid, and only the Fortnite version of the Copter keeps this from being one of the absolute cheapest drops we’ve ever had. Remember, Bankbuster was banned in Standard, but it’s rotated out anyway and no one plays it.
This art and style will probably not be enough to get this to sell out quickly. Top IP can lead to sellouts, but these are such mediocre cards that my expectations are quite low.
Arcade Racers
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Roiling Vortex
$2 to $7
39k
Wheel of Misfortune
$5 to $22
96k
Big Score
$1 to $3
226k
Final Fortune
$8 to $200
49k
Heat Shimmer
$5 to $40
30k
This is a fantastically designed set of cards, and while they aren’t expensive, the special versions aren’t cheap either. I love that we get two special frames in the same drop, increasing my desire for the foil bundle. There’s a chance that this Big Score becomes a $10 card, but I’d rather go in on singles after the drop lands, instead of trying to get a bunch of these. I really appreciate that this is the only special frame for most of these, aside from an EA Vortex, a Future Sight Final Fortune, and the other SL version of Wheel.
Lorwyn Lightboxes
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Secluded Glen
Bulk to $40
18,000
Wanderwine Hub
$1 to $13
2200
Ancient Amphitheater
50¢ to $5
5000
Auntie’s Hovel
$6 to $13
3700
Gilt-Leaf Palace
$4 to $35
15,000
These haven’t seen a lot of reprint efforts. There’s a List copy here and there, and an occasional Commander deck inclusion, but definitely no new foils to be had and these are some very pretty examples of what an artist can do. Amazingly, this is still a more expensive drop than the Aether Chasers, but my expectations are still pretty low.
Artist Series: Jesper Ejsing
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Llanowar Elves
Bulk to $450
504k
Deflecting Swat
$43 to $70
405k
Breeches, Eager Pillager
Bulk to $1.50
30k
Sun Titan
Bulk to $9
235k
The tragedy of this drop is that a really talented artist did some fantastic paintings and they weren’t even given a chance to go borderless, or even the EA treatment. Compare this to any of the more recent artist spotlights, or any of the three artists featured in other drops in this Superdrop, and you’ll see what I mean.
It doesn’t matter, though, because this has three very popular cards and one of them is $43 in the base nonfoil. I cannot guarantee that this will sell out, but even the Extra Life Fierce Guardianship, which sold as much as people wanted to buy, went from $33 up to near $50 now. If you wanted to jump on Deflecting Swat singles early on, that would be valid too.
Featuring: Luke Pearson
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Bear Umbra
$6 to $40
106k
Witch of the Moors
$1 to $3
33k
Realmwalker
$2 to $6
132k
Solemn Simulacrum
$1 to $70
717k
My kids have seen the Netflix adaptation of Pearson’s Hilda books, and they are approving. It’s not like these are specific to the cards, but it’s the same art style. The card choice is solid: Realmwalker just has an FEA of the original, this is the first foil of Witch, Bear Umbra’s only other foil is the ROE pack foil, and Solemn has a hundred variations leading up to the Invention.
It’s mainly cashing in reprint equity, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we saw any of these get another new version sometime soon, but this is a solid drop that should do okay.
City Styles 2: Dressed to Kill
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Karmic Guide
$2 to $18
103k
Ninja of the Deep Hours
$1 to $20
30k
Captain Sisay
$17 to $90
1400 as commander, 16k as card
Selvala, Explorer Returned
Bulk to $20
2000 as commander, 36k as card
Veyran, Voice of Duality
$7 to $18
8k as commander, 54k as card
Before you go crazy, knowing that City Styles 1 is $175 on TCGPlayer, please keep in mind that Tsubonari’s first drop was in a different era, when it was print to demand and not many bought it. Those first five cards don’t have anything super valuable or premium, they just look cool, and these are in that same boat.
Karmic Guide has multiple premiums, Ninja has a TSR retro foil only, Sisay has different versions but all i the same original frame, Veyran and Selvala have nothing special either. This drop has all the trappings of something I want, and that’s before I admit that I have a very powerful Selvala deck of my own. I also think that psychology will play a part here. People will buy this because of the price of the first one, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Featuring: Mitsuhiro Arita
Card Name
Price Range
EDHREC decks
Light-Paw, Emperor’s Voice
$1 to $10
8300 as commander, 25k as card
Murktide Regent
$11 to $4000
2700
Lightning Bolt
$1 to several grand
270k
Shorikai, Genesis Engine
$2 to $8
18k as commander (#20 all time), 30k as card
The star here is clearly Murktide, a card that has fallen out of favor in the current Modern metagame, but does retain some value and utility. Shorikai might end up at $10+ given the new rush of Vehicles coming out and it was already high on the posted decks. Lightning Bolt has been printed more than 35 times, and each premium version tends to land in the $6 to $10 range.
Murktide’s current demand level is not high, so I’d expect this to land in the $25 range for foils, but remember that for Modern players, you’re going to need four of the card, not one, and they all better match. I might pick up a stack of nonfoils once the drop lands.
Wrap-Up
So here’s my ranking of the drops:
Miku in EN foil
Miku in EN nonfoil
Artist Series: Jesper Ejsing
City Styles 2
Featuring: Mitsuhiro Arita
Miku in JP foil/nonfoil
Featuring: Luke Pearson
Arcade Racers
Lorwyn Lightboxes
Aether Drifters
Personally, I think I’m going to end up with this order: one all-foil bundle, two all–foil Miku bundle, five EN foil Miku, five Jesper, five City Styles 2, one Mitsuhiro. This keeps my Miku buys in line with each other and I can bundle them off together, plus I want the max of the other two lairs and one of each for personal collecting.
I will also be keeping a close eye on the ‘low stock’ notifications, especially if those pop up for the Racers or Drifters. I’m not expecting them to be popular, but I’ve been wrong before.
We don’t yet know what the bundle pricing will be, as the discounts have grown smaller and smaller over time, and I’m also not expecting a sweet bonus card like an Avengers Arcane Signet or a Rainbow Foil Seedborn Muse. If we get those, great. If not, well, I’ve made my choices.
Good luck, and may your queue time go by quickly!
Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the official substitute teacher of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at a GP and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.
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