All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

Are We Buying The Secret Lair Countdown: Marvel’s History of Heroes?

In their never-ending quest to get all of our money, Wizards is giving us the next Countdown kits, this time with a Marvel theme.

We’re in the same general plan, with individually wrapped cards, and a chance for those cards to be either foil or surge foil. It’s a familiar playbook, since this is the third iteration, and the only one with a cohesive art theme. It’s also got cards that aren’t officially legal for several months, another new twist. 

But is it worth buying? Let’s discuss.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

Resolving Current And Future Dilemmas

I love when we get a theme that takes a current idea in Magic and rewards us for it. In Star Trek, we’ve already gotten two potential Commanders for decks built around making choices. They’ve settled on calling this a dilemma, which fits nicely into being a Starfleet Captain.

Both Seven of Nine and Captain Sisko reward you for facing dilemmas, and we’re likely to see more cards referencing this game mechanic. So let’s go over what we’ve got for such choices, as well as choosing some potential specs. 

First, we need to review the rules for what is and is not a dilemma. Villainous Choice is not a dilemma, nor is it the act of choosing targets. Comet Storm isn’t a boatload of triggers.

Entwine does work! You choose both, but it’s still only one choice. “One or more” is one choice too, so you only get one trigger off of Cryptic Command. Spree is good for one choice too, even if you end up paying for more than one. There are several Alliance triggers that are modal, such as Gala Greeters, and that might be best.

There’s a couple hundred modal creatures, most of them with ETB. Lots of attack triggers, lots of damage triggers. I’ve got a list of creatures that have a useful trigger on combat and other such things, Sisko doesn’t even have to be in play yet. Upkeep trigger, play Sisko, you’ll still get the creatures at end step. Important note: If a dilemma triggers at end step, make sure to stack your triggers appropriately. 

There’s 536 modal spells. Pick literally whatever you want, Jeska’s Will, Akroma’s Will, and Farewell are top-ranked on EDHREC but the world is your oyster. It’s all about what you like best. 

The big draw to me is stuff that triggers for free at the beginning of combat. That way, you have a choice about what to play, if you want a dilemma payoff like Seven of Nine to be on the field when the dilemma happens. When you have creatures that enter play and give you a dilemma, you have to pay for one then the other. Same thing with attack triggers or damage triggers. I want dilemmas ready to go. Ergo, artifacts/enchantments which are already in play seem like the way to go.

Reprint risk is possible for these cards, we’ve got most of a bonus sheet left to go. Nothing’s set in stone, and I could easily see some sort of Black Market Connections reprint with Quark’s smiling face. (I appreciate the commercial focus of the Ferengi!)

Kimoyo Beads – UB reprints are super unlikely, so this is an excellent target for dilemmas, especially as it’s colorless and can go into any deck you want. 

Umezawa’s Jitte – Just take a beat and imagine this with Seven of Nine in play. Every time you remove a counter, you draw a card. Lost Jitte works too. 

Vision, Synthezoid Avenger – This triggers on each of your opponent’s spells, and as cool as it is, when you have to choose to phase him out then the fun ends till your turn. Pretty fun to have something that can only die to sorceries, and if they try it, you just cast a modal instant.

Black Market Connections – The gold standard for making good choices, remember that you only get one dilemma trigger even if you pick all three.

Felidar Retreat – The ‘Retreat to’ cycle is also Landfall-dilemma, but this is the best by far.

Glorious Sunrise – Four choices, all of them good depending on where you are in the game, and all the more awesome if the choice gives you a bonus.

SOLDIER Military Program – I picked the Surge foils of this on cast, as it’s cheap, not going to get reprinted, and is a steady stream of advantages.

Sylvan Scavenging – It’s an end step trigger, so be careful, but it’s another cheap way to get the good things constantly flowing.

Next, a list of creatures that don’t need to enter, attack, or deal damage to get a dilemma trigger:

Astarion, the Decadent – You don’t need to get the thirst trap art, but that’s the one more likely to pop.

Dreamshackle Geist – Free triggers plus easier attacks? Also a very political card at the table.

Glissa, Herald of Predation – Free combat triggers, all of them useful if not overpowered.

Kargan intimidator – The effects are mediocre, yes, but if you have the mana you can trigger three dilemmas a turn.

Koma, Cosmos Serpent – You have to sacrifice a serpent to get the dilemma, but if it’s worth it, you get a trigger on your opponents’ turn too.

Mister Hyde, Monster Within – Free upkeep trigger that likely draws you cards too.

Skinshifter – Like the Intimidator, you can pay the mana and get a dilemma. Limit is once per turn, but you can do this on every turn for many triggers.

The Fantastic Four – Yes, this needs to be in play and the requirement of four needs satisfaction, but this goes off a lot in a commander game.

Umaro, Raging Yeti – This is a case where a random decision is still a decision. Outlaws’ Merriment also applies, but Umaro has lots of fun modes. Don’t fear the discard trigger.

Vannifar, Evolved Enigma – The triggers at beginning of combat are super useful, don’t sleep on them. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Remaining Secret Lair Schedule for 2026

There’s about to be a whole lot going on in Magic, with the Star Trek preview incoming, but there’s even more on the horizon!

The calendar year has about ten weeks left, give or take, and we’ve got a lot of Secret Lair drops/releases happening before we turn the page to 2027.

Some of the details are confirmed, and some of the dates are a little hazy, but let’s get into what’s left on the schedule, including Monday’s release.

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Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.

The Six Million Pack Question (And Some Potential Answers)

Two weeks ago, in the Mana Math, I broke down the percentages and arrived at a number for how many Collector Boosters there are for Reality Fracture. Six million Collector Boosters out there, nearly double the amount there were for the first Lord of the Rings expansion in 2023. 

So if there were 3.3 million packs then, and 6 million now, what happens if we extrapolate the sets in between?

And once we have a print run, we can unlock so many more numbers!

So let’s journey down a path of estimations, albeit good ones, and figure out what we can learn from a print run.

There have been 24 sets with Collector Boosters between Lord of the Rings and Reality Fracture. We have two endpoints, and it’s pretty straightforward to calculate the steps along the way if it was a smooth, linear progression.

SetDate ReleasedApprox # of CB packs
Lord of the Rings06/20233.3 million
Commander Masters08/20233,408,000
Wilds of Eldraine09/20233,516,000
Lost Caverns of Ixalan 11/20233,624,000
Ravnica Remastered01/20243,732,000 (Actually this was 3.2 million packs, according to WotC.)
Murders at Karlov Manor02/20243,840,000
Fallout03/20243,948,000
Outlaws of Thunder Junction04/20244,056,000
Modern Horizons 306/20244,164,000
Assassin’s Creed07/20244,272,000
Bloomburrow08/20244,380,000
Duskmourn09/20244,488,000
Foundations11/20244,596,000
Innistrad Remastered01/20254,704,000
Aetherdrift02/20254,812,000
Tarkir: Dragonstorm04/20254,920,000
Final Fantasy06/20255,028,000
Edge of Eternities08/20255,136,000
Spider-Man09/20255,244,000
Avatar: The Last Airbender11/20255,352,000
Lorwyn Eclipsed01/20265,460,000
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles03/20265,568,000
Secrets of Strixhaven04/20265,676,000
Marvel Super Heroes06/20265,784,000
The Hobbit08/20265,892,000
Reality Fracture10/20266 million

So many steps along the way! 

As I do a lot of math for Magic, this is pretty straightforward: Difference between the start and end is 2.7 million, divided by 25, gives us roughly 108,000 more packs each time. 

We need to give a caveat here: it’s highly unlikely that there was a smooth transition over the last three years. Incremental progress is possible, but it’s much more probable that there were bigger jumps every so often. Could have been quarterly, could have been every half year. I put it on the table above but I want to reiterate that Ravnica Remastered is a known number at 3.2 million packs, since they told us that you were 1% to get any serialized and there are 64 serialized cards with 500 copies each.  I’m content with the average rate of progress here as my metric for all the sets, but I want to reiterate that this is an estimate, not a piece of hard data. 

There were 20 mythics and 60 rares in Wilds of Eldraine, and there are 25 mythics and 65 rares in Reality Fracture. More Collector Boosters (nearly double!) means more copies of cards in the world. There’s more players, or at least we’re told that there is player growth, but that’s still a boatload of Collector Boosters filled with regular-frame cards (foil and nonfoil) and the proportion hasn’t grown at the same rate as the print run.

So for regular-frame rares and mythics, it seems clear that there’s more of those for new sets than there were for older sets. I’ll be looking into these numbers more closely in the future. 

Having the print run does give us a very intriguing number, though: Once the odds for a specific card have been calculated (something I’ve done for literally every set that has Collector Boosters) and we have a number for the print run, now we have an estimate for how many copies there are of each card. 

Have another table, this time focused on one specific type of card. (as an example, this is the number of copies for Dragonscale Scalding Tarn, not for all five fetches.)

Card/Set/TreatmentEstimated Print RunEstimated # of copies
WOT Confetti Foil 3,516,0003,981
REX Emblem Variants (LCI Bonus)3,624,000953
OTP Textured Foil4,056,0002,704
BLB Raised Foil Anime4,380,0007,633
DSK Fracture Foils (English)4,488,0001,346
FDN Mythic Mana Foils4,596,0004,325
TDM Dragonscale Fetchland4,920,0009,840
FIN Neon Chocobo5,028,0003,016
EOS Galaxy Foil Poster Mythic Rare5,136,0002,568
SOA Silver Scroll JPN Mythic Rare 5,676,0008,705

Some of these numbers surprise me, and I want to think about them. The Textured Foils from OTP are likely the outlier in terms of rarity vs. price, with some of these available for under $20. I’m really surprised to see that there’s about 10k of each Dragonscale fetchland out there, considering the price, but we’re definitely looking at a confluence of ‘things that are commonly played’ and ‘the best creature type’ plus ‘unique foiling’.

Four thousand of each confetti foil from Eldraine’s Enchanting Tales seems about right, especially three years later. Same with the REX emblem cards, as we knew these were very difficult to get from packs even at the beginning.

The Chocobos are perhaps the biggest surprise for me here, as each of them are around two grand and there are more than twice as many of those as there are of the Duskmourn Fracture Foils. 

Again, I want to reiterate the data that’s brought us here, and the chain of estimations. We’re pretty confident in the six million number for Reality Fracture CBs, and I plotted a linear graph from Lord of the Rings to the present. With that estimated print run, and the previous work I’ve done in the Mana Math series, I’m confident in these being good estimates, but far from perfect or precise. 

Cliff (@WordOfCommander at Twitter and BlueSky) has been writing for MTGPrice since 2013, and is an eager Commander player, Draft enthusiast, and Cube fanatic. A high school science teacher by day, he’s also the co-host of the MTG Fast Finance podcast. If you’re ever at an event and you see a giant flashing ‘CUBE DRAFT’ sign, go over, say hi, and be ready to draft.