All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330
Casual Fridays

Eternal Masters: The Mythics

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So we’ve had an eventful few days of Eternal Masters spoilers, and wow does this look like a set that’s worth $10 per pack…maybe. I need to see the whole list and even then I’m going to be leery.

Today I want to look at the mythics that have been spoiled so far and think about what they will be worth, even taking a stab at the foil prices. I want to organize myself with the printings it’s had before as well. I’m noting the current prices, too, in case they start to slide abruptly.

Editorial note: As of this writing, there’s only 14 mythics previewed. I’ll update this as more are revealed.

 

Karakas

Original printing: Legends ($170)

Other printings: Judge Promo in 2012 ($160)

Very important to note that this is banned in Commander but it is pretty amazing in Legacy when it comes to dealing with things like Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. I think that there isn’t much demand for this card, to be honest. It’s not too amazing in Cube and it’s not played in high quantities in Legacy. I’m going to say that this ends up about $60 and $150 for the foil. Existing copies are not going to fall very far, since the supply is pretty small.

 

Chrome Mox

Original printing: Mirrodin ($15/$58 foil)

Other printings: Grand Prix promo in 2009 ($28)

This printing is going to be the nail in the coffin for its price. It’s played in some decks in Legacy but it’s banned in Modern and doesn’t see a lot of casual play. The price isn’t very high for a Mirrodin rare, and injecting more copies will lower the price by at least a third. This Mox will be about $10, but hit a high $50 or so in foil, because Volkan Baga is a real, honest, badass artist and this is gorgeous.

 

Mana Crypt 

Original Printing: Book promo in 1998 or so ($200)

Other printings: Judge Foil in 2011 ($233)

This is likely going to be the most expensive card from the set, in foil and not. Amazingly, this isn’t banned in Commander yet, and that’s despite one of the banning principles being ‘fast mana.’ I don’t know if you’ve ever played with one of these, but the 3 damage can add up. However, it’s two full turns ahead of what other people are doing, and that is why I’m leery. I think that this stays at $100/$250 foil, but I also think it gets the ban within a year. Not very many people have these in their Commander decks, and as that number goes up, so will the calls for a banning.

 

Maelstrom Wanderer

Original Printing: Commander 2011 ($20)

Other Printings: Commander’s Arsenal ($28)

Oh, this card is busted right in half. It’s just so good. So very, very, amazingly good. It’s possible you can miss with one of the cascades, but your deck is still amazing and getting the first spell or two off the top plus the big hasty creature. Of special note is that this set has the top-of-the-library tutors for the Wanderer, or bounce it back to your hand with Karakas every turn to make your opponent cry. Value-wise, I expect this to settle at about the $15/$40 range.

 

Dack Fayden 

Original Printing: Conspiracy ($33/$395)

Other Printings: none

Yes, you’re seeing the foil multiplier right. This is a $400 foil due to Vintage players who will pay anything for the foil version of something. The foil supply on this is super small (check out Marchesa, the Black Rose in foil too!) and that’s where the impact will be felt greatest, I think. Stealing a Mox or something is good, but don’t overlook the draw two, discard two. There’s a lot of decks that can use that effect, and Dack does pop up here and there in Legacy. The nonfoil will be about $20 and the foil will still be in the $150 range, and I’d expect the original foil to bottom out about $300, since there’s just so few copies out there.

 

Worldgorger Dragon

Original Printing: Judgment ($3/$30)

Other printings: none

This is one of the two really awful pulls for a mythic. It’s infinite mana with this and Animate Dead, so if you’ve got something to do with all that mana, great, it’s game over. If not, get back to your game. This is going to have a very low price, likely about $1/$5.

 

Necropotence

Original Printing: Ice Age ($13)

Other Printings: Deckmaster ($15), 5th edition ($9), FtV: Exiled ($20)

While this has had four times in print, including a special foil, I do not see this as being terribly expensive. It’s an amazing effect, and can draw a silly amount of cards at all points. This will be about $5/$30 at the end of the set.

 

Force of Will

Original Printing: Alliances ($78)

Other Printings: Judge Promo in 2014 ($500)

Oh, this is going to be interesting. Terese Nielsen has become one of the most iconic artists that Magic has to offer, and this piece is no exception. Force will always carry a high price in Legacy and Vintage, because it’s a playset or bust. Very few people run only three, and that’s always kept demand high. This should settle out in the $50 range, but I think foils are going to be in the $200 range, especially early on.

The presence of the special Judge version means that there’s both a ceiling and a competitor, price-wise. The part I’m unsure about is how much having this particular art is worth.

 

Sneak Attack

Original Printing: Urza’s Saga ($44)

Other Printings: Judge Promo in 2012 ($70)

Sneak Attack just wrecks face in a deck that can take advantage of it. Sacrifice for value, mass reanimate, do something unfair. This card enables a lot of that, but the price will stay reasonable, probably around $20/$50.

 

Vampiric Tutor

Original Printing: Visions ($35)

Other Printings: 6th Edition ($35), Judge Promo in 2000 ($100)

My only beef with this card is that the EMA art is a bit too close to the original art for Necropotence, but that’s me being nitpicky. I think this is gorgeous, and the foils will reflect that. $15 for the regular, $80 or so in foil.

 

Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Original Printing: Worldwake ($90)

Other Printings: FtV: 20 ($75)

Ah, Jace. How many things contributed to your overblown power? How many people made mistakes with you? It’s iconic, and likely going to be the best planeswalker ever made. This will be about $30, with foils being near $100. The FtV version is lower because a lot of people don’t like the unusual foiling on those cards.

 

Balance

Original Printing: Alpha ($550)

Other Printings: Beta ($350), Unlimited ($40), Revised ($2), 4th edition ($2), Judge Promo ($27), FtV: Exiled ($9)

This is one of those cards that fills the ‘overpowered to busted in Limited, worth less than a bag of beans in person’ slot that every set needs. I think this will be just about bulk, and the foils might make it to $10.

 

Argothian Enchantress

Original Printing: Urza’s Saga ($16)

Other Printings: Judge Promo from 2003 ($55)

She’s best friends with Rabid Wombat, she can’t help you by herself, she was the most feared 0/1 until Noble Hierarch showed up…and she’s going to have a middling price, since she’s not played too much. I would expect her to settle about $10/$35.

 

Natural Order

Original Printing: Visions ($35)

Other Printings: Portal ($43) , Judge Promo in 2010 ($130)

This is Tinker for green creatures. Progenitus is the usual target, but you have options in Regal Force or Craterhoof Behemoth, depending on the board state. Thankfully, this is using the dignified art, but it’s not going to be that expensive. $15 for the regular, and about $40 for the foil.

Casual Fridays

Reprint Awareness, Part 2

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So a bunch of new things are coming this year, and as I said last week, there’s a lot of cards that I would be worried about. These are cards that I do not want to have extras of right now, or even if I do keep some, I do so knowing how easy these are to reprint.

Reflecting Pool ($8): It’s been printed three times, and has two foil versions. But it’s ridiculously good in multicolor decks, and four-color Commanders are going to make everyone want one of these. I will be ready to order a ton of these if we get the decklists and this hasn’t been printed again, as a spike to at least $15 seems reasonable.

Doubling Season ($40): Oh, this is scary. The good news, though, is that every time it’s been printed (Judge version, Modern Masters 2013) it’s eventually rebounded. I think this gets printed before the Commander decks, and if it goes as low as $20 I will be picking some up. It’s just too good in the long term with tokens, planeswalkers, counters, etc.

Path to Exile ($11-$13): Seven printings! Including an FNM version, as an uncommon, and yet here it is. I stand by my thinking, though: This is easy to print, a powerful yet balanced effect, and if it dips down to $5 it’ll be an attractive buy target. I would not be holding spare nonfoils.

Akroma’s Memorial ($16): I’ll be honest, I love cards like this that just end the game of Commander. Drop this down and immediately remove someone from the game with your hasty, vigilant, first striking army and don’t be afraid of any retaliation. This is a very high price for such a casual card, though, and a reprint is going to bite deeply into its value.

Cavern of Souls ($54): This is the new Damnation. We know it’s going to get reprinted. It’s an amazing card in Constructed for uncounterability and in casual formats for tribal color-fixing. I would call this somewhere between scorching and radioactive, in terms of how this would be burning a hole in my binder to get rid of it. I’m actually hoping for something with better art, because the foil isn’t all that pretty. Get rid of every copy you have, as I will be stunned if this makes it to New Year’s Day without a reprint.

Blood Artist ($4): As an uncommon from one of the worst Limited sets in recent memory, it’s surprising to see this be worth so much, but the effect is bonkers in a lot of settings. A reprint will tank this hard and you should move these out now.

Rune-Scarred Demon ($6): I don’t think Dark Petition is going to get a reprint this year, but I do believe that seven mana for a 6/6 flyer and a tutor is awesomely good enough to see a new version in one of the sets we get this year. I couldn’t say which, but I wouldn’t keep any of these around.

Oblivion Stone ($30): Big-mana strategies are in vogue and this hasn’t had a printing since 2011. There’s a lot of casual players who would love to have one of these, and you should move your extras out pretty soon. This could literally be in any set.

Champion’s Helm ($10): One of the underrated cards from the original Commander, this is one of the best ways to keep your general safe for a low cost. Lightning Greaves is the gold standard, but this is not far off. However, it’s only had the one printing, and a new release will really impact the price.

Consecrated Sphinx ($26): It’s due. It’s so due. It’s also an excellent candidate for a banning in Commander. I would let go of every copy that wasn’t in a deck right now.

Darksteel Plate ($8): It’s hard to grasp how long ago this got printed, and it’s had no additional versions added to the supply. Get your extras out of your binder and avoid the price loss that will happen.

Asceticism ($12): If you’ve never had the honor of playing with this, it’s even better than you think it is. Pinpoint removal is no good, and also it regenerates when needed. It’s also no mana to protect your creatures, and it’s a popular card in green Commander decks. This is rather expensive for a rare from a big set, and adding to the supply is going to torpedo the price.

Genesis Wave ($7): Speaking of Scars of Mirrodin! This card pops up from time to time when a ramp deck wants a big finisher, and this is ridiculously awesome in Commander games. I expect this to get printed again, losing at least half of its value when it does.

Steel Overseer ($19): I would imagine that one of the new Commander decks will be artifact-based, likely the one that isn’t green. This card would be fantastic in that set, and if it’s not printed, will likely go up by $5-$10, and drop by at least that much when printed.

Serra Ascendant ($19): I don’t think this would be in the Commander product, because it lacks the modern template of Chalice of Life and different playgroups have different ways they want to handle this card. The price, though, is going to drop like a rock, since this was a rare in 2011.

Captivating Vampire ($9): Sees no competitive play, one of the top tribes in Magic, five years old. It’s an excellent target for one of these supplemental products and won’t be even $5 after a reprint.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence ($52): This is another card that keeps dodging a reprint and I’m more and more surprised each time. If I had any extras, I would be very nervous. She’s continued to creep upward in price and kudos to you if you want to keep walking the tightrope with her.

Nirkana Revenant ($22): Everyone loves this effect in casual circles and it even comes with something to do with all of that mana! It’s a mythic from forever ago, though, and the supply is tiny. Expect this to drop to a third of its value.

Master of the Wild Hunt ($14): Another ancient mythic, this is really more and more amazing with all the new wolf creatures and token makers. Trade these away freely.

Casual Fridays

Reprint Awareness

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In case you’re not aware, the next six months are going to give us a lot of ways to experience Magic that are not Standard-legal booster packs.

June 10, 2016: Eternal Masters

August 19, 2016: From the Vault: Lore

August 27, 2016: Conspiracy: Take the Crown

November 2016 (exact date not yet released, likely the first week or two): Commander 2016

 

Yes, that’s only one week between an FtV and the new Conspiracy set. My wallet already hurts.

Notably, this list leaves out Eldritch Moon (July 16) and the next large set (codename is Lock, due to land in September 2016) but those are less likely to have reprints in them.

FtV: Lore is something I don’t want to speculate on. I don’t think I’ll ever recover from Wizards’ decision to put Iona, Shield of Emeria in Modern Masters 2015 and then immediately again in FtV: Angels. I know there’s some logic, some rationale, but I’m done trying to predict what they will and won’t do.

Instead, I want to think about what’s safe, as I attempt to weather the storm ahead. I also want to consider the three reprint-focused sets (Conspiracy and Commander are mostly reprints) and what I have that’s exposed from a financial standpoint.

One of the things that I have learned is to trust the high-end market. The things that there will not be any more of, that’s only going to go up. There are blessed few examples of a three-figure card crashing down to earth, and those usually involve multiple bannings.

With the best of the best, a reprint doesn’t often hurt a card. Let’s looks at the poster child for ‘careful what you wish for’ reprints: Thoughtseize. Here’s the graph for the foil:

Tseize

Theros came out in fall 2013, and you can see the dip down to about $100. If you got in at that point, congratulations. I love it when any card triples in value, but climbing $200 or so is truly awesome. In retrospect, we should have seen it coming. We should have known that this card is good. Incredibly so. Format-warpingly amazing. It’s a mainstay in Modern and Legacy and while lots of people were telling you to pick up $20 copies at the end of Theros, I don’t remember many voices chiming in about Lorwyn foils.

Original set foils are resistant in the long term, often carrying more value than newer versions that seem exactly the same. Woodfall Primus, a fun reanimation target but not a Constructed card currently, has a $6 gap between the Shadowmoor foil and the Modern Masters 2013 foil.

It takes a lot to dent the prime cards and Onslaught fetches are one of them. Those cards have seen Judge printings, Khans of Tarkir reprints, and now Zendikar Expeditions. Even with all of that, the lesser lands have stayed about where they were. Here’s Windswept Heath:

heath

While it’s seen some ups and downs, it’s been mostly at home in the $150 range. This is true for the other four, and now my secret: GET THESE NOW.

No matter which version you want, supply is at a peak. If you ever wanted these for a Commander deck, or your Cube, or whichever, now is the time. People have gotten theirs and they are coming out of circulation and there’s nowhere to go but up. I like the set foils and the Expedition versions to grow the most in the next two to three years, but these will, at the worst, keep their price.

On a related note, I really, really like getting into foil Zendikar fetches. These might not get the Standard treatment as the Onslaught ones did, but the trajectory is there. Buylist on a foil Scalding Tarn has already gotten back to where it was before the Expeditions landed, and I think that all the foils are going to tick steadily upward. At worst, they stay safe, and I’ll be insulated against all the reprints that are coming.

Watchlist

Now, let’s talk about some unsafe cards.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx ($8): This worries me, and I have about 20 that I picked up for $4. It’s too easy. This shines in a set that focuses on individual colors, or hybrids. I’ve seen some chatter that an Elf theme is quite possible in EMA, and this fits in very well as a “Oh, you’ve done a bunch of stuff? Have a boatload of mana!” card that Gaea’s Cradle is ideal in.

Thespian’s Stage ($3/$14): The foil multiplier is due to the Dark Depths combo and the awesomeness in Commander. I banged the drum on this card for years as a dollar pickup and here we are, a triple up…and I’m frightened. There’s a lot of people on PucaTrade who want this, and in the interest of disclosure, I sent out half my copies this week. A reprint, in any set, will send this back to fifty cents or lower, and it fits literally anywhere.

Stony Silence ($11): Cheap, easy, and a great answer to a lot of problems. I’ll be surprised if this hasn’t had a new printing by the end of this year.

Innistrad enemy check lands (Sulfur Falls, Woodland Cemetery, etc.): These have had one printing and it was five years ago. It’s time and the values will drop by at least half. Lots of spare copies have been soaked up by the casual market, and they are a great add for easing mana fixing.

Craterhoof Behemoth ($26): A great finisher for swarm decks, this might be too obvious if there is an Elf theme in one of the reprint sets. I don’t think they want to take an Elf deck and reprint it as-is, but as I said, I’ve been horrifically wrong about what Wizards will and won’t do.

Rise of the Dark Realms ($7): Big, expensive, splashy, and usually game-ending. Sounds like the definition of a card in Commander 2016.

Primeval Bounty ($6): Whatever you do after casting this, it gets significantly better. But it does nothing at six mana, yet it’s got this price. Ripe for reprinting!

Omniscience ($16): Another excellent candidate for a Commander reprint, it’s just silly, especially if the Reserve List gets bent and best buddy Academy Rector gets a reprint along the way too.

Gilded Lotus ($9): Don’t sleep on how good this card is, because it’s been in two large sets and as an FtV and yet it’s still here at $9. It’s a first-pick card in Cube too.

There’s a lot more things that I don’t want to have spares of, and I’ll try to wrap up the list next week. Feel free to add your thoughts in the comments or the forums!

Casual Fridays

What is Patience Worth?

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One of my basic tenets when it comes to Magic finance is patience. I don’t want to repeat a mistake I made, trading for a foil mythic the week it came out and paying far more than I needed to for the card.

Let’s be clear: I’m talking about cards for your Cube, your Commander deck, your non-competitive decks. If you need a card right away for Standard, well, you’ll pay what you need to for the card you want, and that is why Archangel Avacyn is a $50 card currently. She is seeing play in a range of strategies, she’s a double-faced mythic, and her casual appeal is very high too. The perfect storm of being expensive.

Avacyn-the-Purifier-MtG-Art

Her price has been one of the few that has ticked upwards since the set has come out. Our price tracker has her at $30 when released, and she’s been as high as $60. She is the outlier, though; lots of other cards have come down in price.

Today, though, I want to talk about those other cards, and evaluate two in particular.

It’s a truism that most cards get cheaper as time goes on and a set is opened more. You can see that in almost all of the cards from Shadows over Innistrad. Almost none have gone up in price, and some have come down quite quickly. It’s been a month and we can prices starting to stabilize, based on how much they have been played and been featured on camera.

Let’s look at Olivia, Mobilized for War, in foil because I have an all-foil Vampires deck.

Olivia

Now, I have the magpie curse. I love shiny versions of cards and I pick them up whenever I can. I accept this as part of who I am, and I curse that the regular version isn’t good enough for my Commander deck.

This Olivia is a house in Limited, a cheap and good-sized flyer who grants haste to your next plays without costing any mana. Being free of a mana cost is why Lightning Greaves is better than Swiftfoot Boots, even as hexproof is better than shroud.

I hesitated at first, thinking that I don’t always want to pitch a card to make things bigger and hasty, but then I realized that it’s no-downside. You don’t have to, unless you want to. So I decided I was going to add her to the deck, and then it became a waiting game.

If I had pulled the trigger right away, that is a $25 foil. Not unreasonable for what she does, and if she blows up Modern (not impossible) this could be more. Still, that was more than I wanted to spend, so I decided to wait.

And wait, while it ticked downward.

And wait a little more, as the psychological need to acquire got stronger. I finally pulled the trigger Thursday morning, because it was down to $15 and I doubt it’s going to fall much further. I admit, the small tick downward in the buylist price has me thinking I should have waited, but frankly, I’m okay with a minor cost in order to get what I want now.

The same thing happened with Relentless Dead, where it’s dropped to about $15 in foil from highs of up to $40, but more interesting is that the spread (the difference between the highest buylist and the lowest vendor) is really close to zero.

Relentless

In each of these cases, waiting saved me significant money. Right now, I can get two for the price that one would have cost me at release.

One thing I find quite interesting is how close the foils and non-foils are to each other. Generally speaking, foils are two to three times as expensive as the nonfoil. These ‘should’ be about $20 or $25, but are a lot less right now.

This is true for a lot of Shadows over Innistrad. The foils are a little underpriced, for reasons that aren’t clear. Will MTGO redemptions play a part? Is the demand for all the cards still high enough that the nonfoils have caught up to the foils? For instance, Declaration in Stone is $15, with the foils at $20. I think that in this case, demand for the card is so high that being foil is only worth a small amount.

The same price pattern appears in Pyromancer’s Goggles, which spiked pretty hard the last few weeks, and the foil is only a few dollars more than the regular. Interestingly, there are foil versions of Dark Petition available for cheaper than the nonfoil, after the Pro Tour-induced spike.

I think that the small gap between foil and nonfoil is due to Standard demand. I’m going to be keeping a close eye on these cards to see where they end up, because if this is a new pattern, I want to learn it right away. I can’t recall a time where so many foils were so close to nonfoils in price. Perhaps I didn’t notice it before? Maybe it’s an effect of two blocks or 18-month rotation? I’m honestly not sure, but if this is the new normal, it’s a significant shift.

In the comments or the forums, come talk about the narrowing gap, and if there’s other trends I’ve missed.

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