All posts by Cliff Daigle

I am a father, teacher, cuber and EDH fanatic. My joy is in Casual and Limited formats, though I dip a toe into Constructed when I find something fun to play. I play less than I want to and more than my schedule should really allow. I can easily be reached on Twitter @WordOfCommander. Try out my Busted Uncommons cube at http://www.cubetutor.com/viewcube/76330

Awesome! Expedition! Now What?

By: Cliff Daigle

My second opponent at the prerelease last weekend (we both lost in the first round) said to me, “It doesn’t matter if I win a few packs, because I already won!” and then he showed me the Steam Vents he’d opened.

After the match, he asked me if I wanted to buy the Expeditions land off of him. I declined, and I said to him, “I think the price is going to come down in a few weeks.”

He said, “Maybe, but I don’t know what to do with it.”

Perhaps this is you. You opened an Expeditions land and now you’re asking, “Now what?”

Well, I’m here to walk you through your choices. I am not a professional seller, I am not affiliated with any store, and my views reflect only my experiences.

Option #1: Keep it!

This is the most straightforward of your choices. Pick a deck, or choose a binder, and leave it there. Maybe you keep it in the back page of your binder just to show off, maybe you add it to a Commander deck, but whatever your preference is, the card is in your possession.

This is also the choice that will probably give you the best return on the value. If you leave it in there for a year, it’s going to be worth more than it is now.

Would I do it: Maybe. I have one all-foil Commander deck, and it doesn’t have a Scalding Tarn or Polluted Delta…but those are among the most expensive cards from Expeditions. If I opened one of those…yeah, I’d keep it.

 

Option #2: Trade it!

This sounds like an appealing idea to a lot of people, to give up this one single card and get so much in return! I could easily see someone emptying out their binder in order to get their hands on the Expeditions land they want so very badly, not least because you don’t often find people with high-end cards for trade.

It’s worth saying that if you’re going to trade this, be aggressive in what you’re asking for, especially if you’re trading a fetch land or shock land. While it seems these aren’t as super-rare as originally anticipated, they are still pretty hard to find and you shouldn’t be shy if you’re going to part with yours. Grab everything of theirs you want, negotiate a little, and if they don’t want to trade the things you want, start to walk away. Most of the time, they will come around.

If there’s no trading partner available at your store, there’s always online trading. Deckbox is my preferred method, but if you are just starting you’ll be asked to send your cards first and I know that can be intimidating at the beginning, especially if you’re trying to start with a card worth more than $100.

Trading the card on PucaTrade is a strong option. This is the way to get all the points you’ll need for a while, or jump you up to the big cards you desire. Think of it as getting 100% of the card’s value in store credit.

Would I do it: Yes. I have never been a heavy PucaTrade user, mainly because I don’t have a lot of time to watch and jump in when someone wants a card I have. I would be content to gain a stack of PucaPoints or spend a couple of days haggling on Deckbox until I got exactly what I wanted.

 

Option #3: Sell it!

There’s a simplicity in selling your Expeditions land to whichever online card shop you like, because you’ll get the cash or credit right away. No haggling, no discussion, just click, pack, send. If you want cash this may or may not be the best option, since right now lots of stores have lots of prices set up. I would expect that the prices will stabilize this week as stores begin opening their product.

As ever, though, doing the simple thing is going to cost you some. Typically, stores will give you about half the retail price of a card in cash. Most big stores will then add a percentage to it and give you more in store credit, to avoid paying cash.

If you’re not used to dealing with expensive cards or selling things yourself, there’s an ease and a comfort in dealing with the store of your choice. Just understand that there’s a real cost.

Selling the card via Facebook, Twitter, or other social media is an option, but carries its own set of risks.

eBay might be the best option if you want to convert your card to cash. There will be fees from eBay and from PayPal, and so you should expect to pay 10-20% of the final sale value. If you’ve sold things on eBay before, you don’t need me to tell you about it. If you haven’t, understand that eBay almost always sides with the buyer in disputes, so there’s always the chance you could get burned as the seller if you’re unfamiliar with the process. Other buyers will shy away from someone with low feedback.

It’s my understanding that TCGPlayer isn’t that much better than eBay when it comes to small amounts of cards, but I’ve never sold there and I’ll let people share their experiences in the comments.

Would I do it: Probably not. Turning a card into cash usually means that I’ll spend it on other things that my family needs. Plus, I don’t like losing the percentages of a sale, so I’d stick with trading.

Let’s use an example: Arid Mesa.

Here at MTGPrice, it’s listed at $150, because that’s about what it’s going for on eBay. Card shops aren’t allowed to sell them until today and so there’s a lot of volatility.

Looking at the sold items, that seems like a good average. There’s been some lower offers accepted, some bids aren’t too much above or below that number. Remember, though, that you’d be looking at about $20-$25 in fees.

TCGPlayer has these in that same range, about $165. Notable that their data shows these as pre-selling for more than $200 earlier this week! As of this writing, though, the lowest price on a NM copy is $145, and with the downward trend, you could probably undersell that too.

Selling to stores appears to be an even worse play, with buylists not even breaking $100, and most between $80-$90. Even with store credit, you’d be hard-pressed to break $120 at a store.

PucaTrade is by far the most profitable option. You’d get 17150 points, the equivalent of $171.50 worth of cards. Puca is a surprisingly good place to get high-end cards, and you’d be well on your way.

I’m putting this up for people that aren’t sure what to do with their one Expeditions card, especially if you have no interest in trying to get a full playset. I welcome discussion about the best way to move one of these, along with your experiences.


 

Worth the Rarity?

By: Cliff Daigle

So if you’ve been reading things from MTGPrice about the doom and gloom of Battle for Zendikar. You might think this is the worst set ever. Such low power, such cheap cards due to Expeditions, such a waste of time.

I don’t agree.

I feel that there are going to be some cards which will go up during their time in Standard. It’s not going to be the same sort of price graph as other cards, because sets now have 18 months in the format, not 24. Here’s perhaps the best example from the last couple of years, our best-case scenario: Hero’s Downfall.

Capture

This was a rare from the most-opened set ever, at the time. There are a lot of things to love about this graph, especially the two spikes. One was at the beginning propelling it to $17 as this card is discovered to be good enough to warrant play as a four-of in any black deck, and one was about a year later, a spike to about $12, as Abzan became the most popular deck in the format.

I don’t think any of Battle for Zendikar has this level of immediate appeal, at least not in the rares. Downfall is fast and universal, and is an excellent card to have alongside Thoughtseize. Having Downfall in your deck means that you can really sculpt what threats you don’t mind your opponent having when you cast an early Thoughtseize, and the two hold hands very well.

The second spike is the most intriguing to me. A year later, after a rotation and some new cards, there was a new surge of interest in the card. I want to think about that. I want to have a few copies of cards that are good enough to see an increase from $1 to $5, give or take.

Here are the cards I think could follow this path, and increase when the next block (or the one after) comes out:

 

Brutal Expulsion – As others have noted, it’s a darn shame that this doesn’t work with Pyromancer’s Goggles. It would possibly be too good at that point, though. It’s a weird combination of Remand and Cryptic Command, cards that have seen a lot of play, and when this gets cheap I’ll be looking to get my copies.

 

March from the Tomb – Eight mana’s worth of allies is a wonderful number, especially with haste and lifelink as options for my allies. This seems like a great way to win games out of nowhere, and come back from board wipes easily. Of note is that changelings will work very well with this card in Commander, making foils a very intriguing target.

 

Noyan Dar, Roil Shaper – For every Ponder, a land becomes a 3/3 haste, or that same land gets an extra three counters. This is another one with combo potential, and it will certainly be a cheap pickup soon.

 

Painful Truths – Others have discussed this in more detail, but three mana to draw three and lose three life is a pretty good deal. I won’t expect big things out of it, but I’m also not looking to spend too much on it.

 

Planar Outburst – I feel pretty good about this, especially when End Hostilities rotates out. Wrathing plus getting a creature is a pretty good deal, just ask anyone who’s played Martial Coup. It’ll never be a super expensive card, but the potential for growth is there.

 

Ruinous Path – Yes, I know it’s not Downfall. It’s a sorcery. It’s been established that it is worse than Downfall. That doesn’t mean it’s not among the best of the options. Removal is getting worse, as you’ve likely noticed. Wizards doesn’t want unconditional two-mana removal, unless perhaps it’s two colors. It would be stronger as an instant but I think this will be the best you can do.

 

Scatter to the Winds – I can’t give credit because I don’t remember who it is that said in a control deck, you don’t want cards that only win. You want cards that will keep you at parity, and then eventually pull ahead and win. Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver is one example, as it’ll get you a blocker or two and eventually pull too far ahead, all from one card. This is another example. It’s a counterspell at the new cost for such, 1UU, but late game when you’re both playing off the top it’s an answer AND it’s a new threat. I think this has potential in a longer-term scenario.

 

Wasteland Strangler – I don’t think we have all the tools to trigger this consistently on turn three yet. I think that the new set will give us one or two ways to do that and then this becomes phenomenal. Imagine this alongside a Thoughtseize variant, albeit one that doesn’t suck. Perhaps that says more about how overpowered Thoughtseize is? I don’t like having to rely on one- or two-drop creatures to Ingest in order to power this up, but there’s going to be people who try.

 

A bonus: Beastcaller Savant (Foil)

I don’t know what the combo will be. I really don’t. But I think that a hasty mana creature in Modern has real potential. I will be looking to pick up a few foils cheap.


 

Casual Hits in Battle for Zendikar

By: Cliff Daigle

It’s here! It’s here! The whole spoiler is likely released today but most of it is known and it’s time to examine what these cards will do for our beloved casual formats.

Some points to keep in mind:

#1: If these see a lot of Standard/Modern/Legacy play, they will cost more. A given piece of information at this point, but I don’t play those formats heavily enough to predict those prices. I do play lots of Commander and Cube and random casual decks, and that’s what today will focus on.

#2: Expeditions may cause a glut. It’s been discussed ad nauseum at this point but just so we are clear: If people and stores crack lots of product in the search for Expeditions cards (so ugly, yet so profitable!) then everything else will be more available.

#3: Casual eldrazi/colorless decks are much more popular than you think they are. This is a key factor in why older eldrazi like It that Betrays had a higher price than you would have thought. At least, before it was reprinted. The hand-in-hand mechanics of ingest and processors will encourage these types of decks and will have a small effect on prices.

Let’s get to the cards!

gideonallyofzendikar

Gideon, Ally of ZendikarZendikar was printed right as Commander was becoming an acknowledged format, but it wasn’t designed with the same awareness that cards have these days. Allies, like werewolves, are crying out for legendary support, but even more than that, they are looking for a repeatable way to trigger rally in old cards or new ones. Gideon is that way. I can see Gideon keeping a price of no less than $15 while in Standard but the token allies and the potentially repeatable emblem will make sure it never goes less than $10, even after he rotates.

 

kioramasterofthedepths1

Kiora, Master of the Depths – Her plus ability is neat and such a win in my Experiment Kraj deck, but the glory is really had in her -2 ability. Being able to draw one card is handy but in a significant number of activations that will be a -2 to draw two cards. The octo-fight ultimate is just amazing too. I think she won’t crack $15 during her life in Standard though.

 

obnixilisreignited2

Ob Nixilis Reignited – I love the simplicity of this card. Draw, kill, and eventually win. The inevitability of the ultimate, especially in multiplayer games, is just phenomenal. This is likely one of the most played cards in the set in any casual or constructed format, and a card that is just fine to draw multiples of. I’d be surprised if it went much below $20.

 

sireofstagnation

Sire of Stagnation – The parallels with Consecrated Sphinx are deserved, even if it’s a touch more conditional. No one has to play a land, but if they do, you get all the benefit. I’m not sure if this is worth the effort in a Sultai deck, playing cards like Collective Voyage and such, but it sure intrigues me. Since other players can simply not play lands for a turn or two, and this has no protection at all, I don’t think it will have a huge price, likely staying under $5.

 

dragonmasteroutcast

Dragonmaster Outcast – This will be the nail in the coffin. The nigh price was entirely due to the age of the card and the low supply. The drop has begun and it won’t stop until it’s at $3 or less.

 

greenwardenofmurasa

Greenwarden of Murasa – I think that this is a fixed Eternal Witness, not just in mana cost, but in the exile ability. I played in drafts where someone would have two and just loop them endlessly, like Gravediggers or Myr Retrievers. Ugh. Travis mentioned on Twitter this week that the Greenwarden is the perfect card to pair with See the Unwritten, and I would enjoy that interaction every time I thought I could get away with it. I don’t see this as a replacement for the Witness, and not every deck needs two or eight pieces of recursion like this. I want this to keep a price but I believe it will be available for under $2 pretty quickly.

 

quarantinefield

Quarantine Field – There’s enough of this effect that I don’t see this seeing huge play. Oblivion Ring offers permanent exile shenanigans if you can bounce it at instant speed, that’s the sort of effect that gets a Commander player going. More casual decks will like how this scales…sort of. Four mana for the first, six for two targets, and eight mana for three. That works in Limited, but I would hesitate in Commander, since it’s pretty easy to kill the enchantment and get it back. Likely a bulk mythic.

 

felidarsovereign

Felidar Sovereign – Another card doomed for the bulk bin after being a quite expensive card, this was a mythic and is now a rare. Alternate win conditions are lots of fun, but this will not hold any sort of value.

 

dranaliberatorofmalakir

Drana, Liberator of Malakir – First and foremost: she grows herself with every hit. That’s useful, but because of the timing, she has the chance to grow your army before regular damage is dealt. It does require an all-in sort of attack, where if Drana is killed before she hits then you’re going to take it on the chin, but it’ll upgrade creatures trading into a win for you under most circumstances. She’s a good vampire but not amazing, and will be a bulk mythic.

 

partthewaterveil

Part the Waterveil – There is always going to be a small market for extra-turn cards, but the new ones are never going to be as good as the old ones. This will be bulk but will take an extra week or two to get there. It’s notable that you do get a turn and a creature in one spell, which is pretty unusual but not worth it at nine mana.

 

akoumfirebird

Akoum Firebird – This is an okay variation on phoenixes, but six mana to bring back a 3/3 flying haste probably isn’t what most aggressive decks want to do. This, sadly, is going to be another bulk mythic.

 

undergrowthchampion

Undergrowth Champion – I think this has potential in Standard. Not sure if it’s good enough in serious ramp decks, because this has to be in play first. I don’t think I would play it in an Omnath deck, as I’d prefer things to play with all that mana. It will see some play but not enough at kitchen tables to keep it above $2-$3.

 

ulamogtheceaselesshunger

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger – Ulamog’s first incarnation could be stopped by chump blocks and tokens. Annihilator 4 is a lot of sacrificing but I’ve seen people hold up well. Exiling twenty cards per attack is rather outstanding, though, and a very nice alternate win condition. This can be cheated into play, unlike the original, which is probably an upgrade for players. I think Ulamog will stay between $15-20 for the foreseeable future.

 

voidwinnower

Void Winnower – Let’s just concede to the ‘can’t even’ jokes and acknowledge that this is awesome. We’ve never had an effect like this, outside of some of the red cards like Chaos Moon. I think that foils on this will have a real premium, and if a companion card is printed that affects evens, that will be even more expensive.

 

oblivionsower

Oblivion Sower – As the promo foil in the duel deck, this card has no chance to hold a high price. Its effect is amazing and worth planning on, since it can be a big burst of mana if everything lines up right. Still, it’s going to be at $2 or less.

 

omnathlocusofrage

Omnath, Locus of Rage – This probably looks great in foil, and as a Commander, it will do a lot of damage. I’m not sold that this is better as its own Commander or if it fits beautifully into a Horde of Notions deck in order to give wrath insurance. By itself, though, it’s going to be a bulk mythic.


 

Exile for Value

By: Cliff Daigle

So the spoilers are rolling in this week and there’s a lot of excitement. I personally can’t wait to trigger the new Kiora’s ultimate, which Aaron Forsythe described on Twitter as ‘Octo-Fight’ and that is the best name for anything ever!

What I’m most intrigued by, though, is how the Eldrazi have the ingest mechanic and then have processor effects that make use of the exiled cards. So far, Oblivion Sower is the only one that can provide mega-value, since it can get back lots of lands at once.

This got me thinking, though. Since the Eldrazi want to see exiled cards and not just ones exiled with ingest, I want to look for the casual cards that can exile things and might see a spike if people start adding lots of Eldrazi to their Commander decks and the like.

Put another way: Two years ago, Nekusar, the Mindrazer decks became all the rage and some cards saw significant gains. I want to get ahead of those spikes this time, only instead of drawing and discarding as the key abilities, exiling is now the keyword I’m looking for.

One caveat: We don’t have the full spoiler so it’s possible that some of these are reprinted. If that’s the case, I’m totally wrong on the value.

Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver – As a rotating Planeswalker, I like picking him up now at a pretty low cost. He hasn’t seen much eternal play, but the ability to exile from the library, and then use those cards, is pretty sweet. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was $10 by Christmas.

Deathrite Shaman – This is a card that is too good for Modern, so you can imagine I’m a big fan in casual formats. You want some graveyard interactions for the long games or to stop things from looping, and this gives you a bonus every time you do. People should be playing this already, and so I think gains are unlikely.

Gravestorm – Exactly the type of card I’m looking for. It’s a rare from an older set, it’s got a low buy-in, and the effect is awesome. You get the exiling you want or you get to draw a card. Winners all around! I think this has a great chance to go up in value.

Nezumi Graverobber – If you haven’t played this before, consider doing so soon. I know the card is visually difficult, being a flip card, but a creature that says “4B: Zombify a creature” is worth the effort and the reading. It’s from Champions of Kamigawa and a reprint in the original Commander set, so while it might double to $1.50 it’ll be tough to see much cash profit.

Angel of Finality – I think this is an easy card to add to any white deck and more people should play her. A bump is unlikely, though.

Bitter Ordeal – While I’d like to see this cast for less than infinity, it pretty much only gets cast after some endless loop. Processors and the like will not affect this value.

Bojuka Bog – This would be a great pick to go up in price if it hadn’t been in three of the four Commander sets.

Cemetery Reaper – Even the foils of this are low, and while the ability is useful and relevant, there’s too many copies to make an impact.

Circu, Dimir Lobotomist – I sort of like this one, though the new Eldrazi are all explicitly colorless. There’s a surprisingly small number of ways to just exile the top of their deck. I would expect this to climb a dollar or two in the near future.

Creakwood Ghoul – It’s a way to gain some life but you have to spend a lot of mana. It’s not terrible, and there is lifegain, but the financial impact will be low.

Crypt Incursion – A useful effect, but it’s only creatures. I keep that in mind when I think about amazing Oblivion Sower plays.

Grimoire Thief – This has a lot of potential, but attacking more than once or twice might require too much work to make it worthwhile. Still, it fits my criteria of being an older rare and has a surprisingly useful effect. Just think how many lands Oblivion Sower gets if you’ve tapped the Thief a couple of times.

Honor the Fallen – A mass-effect version of Crypt Incursion. Find which you like best.

Identity Crisis – I love this card but it’s such a late-game play that it might not be worth it. Still, at less than fifty cents, it would be a low-risk speculation.

Jund Charm – One of the modes is relevant for the processors, and the other two modes are just handy to have. This has appeared in Modern sideboards, and might be worth keeping some foils around on.

Karn Liberated – He does exactly what the Eldrazi need, but the mana cost and the financial cost are just too high for our purposes.

Knacksaw Clique – I play this in my Experiment Kraj Commander deck, and it’s a great combo. Eldrazi will appreciate the ability and again, it’s a low-cost rare with the potential to go up.

Merrow Bonegnawer – Costs no mana, can be done more than once a turn, might be everything you want it to be.

Moratorium Stone – Choosing which card to exile is a good ability to have in Commander games, but I doubt there will be a run on this card.

Morningtide – It’s half of Rest in Peace at the same speed.

Necrogenesis – If only there had been a single printing of this! Or even only one foil! It’s what we want but the value will never be there.

Night Soil – There was a chance but no.

Oona, Queen of the Fae – Now we are talking. This is what Eldrazi of all sorts will feast upon: Scalable exile, and you get a benefit for doing so. There’s a lot of copies out there, though, so there might be only a modest increase in value due to her three versions. None is less than two years old, though.

Ornate Kanzashi – It’s five mana, yes, but if exile effects take off this is one of the ones that had a lot of power. It’s close to ‘draw a card’ and it fits all of our criteria for this speculative line of thought, since it’s a rare from Betrayers of Kamigawa.

Perilous Vault – It’s about to rotate and that means the price is up for grabs. I doubt it’ll be much lower, and it’s a worthy thing to buy a playset of and then set aside for a while. This is highly reprintable, though, just as a warning.

Pharika, God of Affliction – Mostly, I hate that your opponent gets the snake tokens, but when an Eldrazi comes along that can return exiled creatures to play (it’ll happen!) then this will get a lot better.

Phyrexian Furnace – Again, it does what we need, and it comes down early.

Planar Void – This or Leyline of the Void accomplish the same task, though they aren’t good if drawn late.

Psychic Surgery – If you’ve ever wanted to annoy people in Commander, cast this on turn two when people are still searching and fetching and such. If you can exile for value, this gets significantly better.

Rakdos Charm – I love having this in Commander, because so often you meet people going infinite shenanigans. It’s a shame that Twin players are ready for instants.

Rats’ Feast – It’s one shot and hits one graveyard. Not ideal but might be passable, and it’s a bulk rare. Not much can be lost if you bought twenty at ten cents each.

Relic of Progenitus – Just like Phyrexian Furnace, though I’m not sure how many of this effect a single deck wants.

Rest in Peace – A card I went deep on in the block and it hasn’t paid off yet. Maybe the Eldrazi are the ones that I’ve been waiting for? This sees a little sideboard play in Modern and Legacy, though, so there’s a chance.

Samurai of the Pale Curtain – Just like Anafenza, the Foremost, this prevents creature loops but doesn’t affect other card types.

Scavenging Ooze – Heck yes. There’s a lot of copies out there and while it does see light play in the older formats, there’s enough of them so that a big jump in price is pretty unlikely. Maybe just the promo, if you’re into that.

Scrabbling Claws – Third artifact with this set of abilities, even if it’s a minor set it’s nice to have redundancy..

Stonecloaker – For 2W, you can exile a card at instant speed in response to something, and then be ready to do it again if you so desire. That seems decent, but few of us keep the mana up before the hijinks start. It’s also had three printings, so if you want to have a chance at returns, go for the foils at $5 each. At the least, they won’t go down.

Suffer the Past – This is more of a game-ender, but at least it’s an X spell with X effect.

Tormod’s Crypt – A perfect card for our purposes, except that it’s been printed way too many times.

Villainous Wealth – Whatever you didn’t cast (lands!) you can return to the graveyard. You ought to be playing this anyway.

Void Maw – It’ll only have an effect after you’ve played this six-drop and the C13 cards aren’t that hard to find. I like it for a very modest gain.

Withered Wretch – This is so utility you should have it in your Cube already. The downside is that it’s got several printings and even multiple foils to choose from. Picking them up won’t break your bank but you are going to have a hard time moving these in quantity, unless there’s a severe and unexpected surge.